Vernon Davis (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

Mike Martz is going to have a HUGE impact on VD's stats in '08. For the sake of argument, let's ignore's Martz's jaw-dropping passing stats as a the Rams HC. Instead, let's focus on his stint with the Lions as their OC.

Few will argue that Alex Smith and/or Shaun Hill strike fear in their opponents' eyes. I would argue, however, the same could have been said for Kitna prior to (...and during) his tenure in DET.

Here are the passing stats for the Lions and 49ers over the past two years...

Detroit Lions

2007: 372-596 for 3820 yards and 21 TD's

2006: 368-587 for 3878 yards and 19 TD's

San Franciso 49ers:

2007: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

2006: 257-444 for 2688 and 16 TD's

NOTE: NFL.com uses net passing yards with yards lost for sacks subtracted from the total gross passing yards.

Averaging the numbers over the past two seasons, Martz's offense...

1) Completed 40% more passes

2) Had 54% more passing yards

3) Had 29% more TD passes

How may this affect VD?? Let's see...

Vernon Davis career average per game (2006 and 2007 seasons):

3.0 receptions for 32.3 yards and 0.29 TD's

Vernon Davis average per game in 2007:

3.7 receptions for 36.4 yards and 0.29 TD's

If we apply the percent increases of the Lions passing offense over the 49ers passing offense to both VD's 1) career averages and 2) 2007 averages, we get the following...

Vernon Davis projections (using career average per game) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

4.2 receptions for 50 yards and 0.38 TD's / 67-800-6 over full 16 games

Vernon Davis projections (using average per game in 2007) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

5.2 receptions for 56 yards and 0.38 TD's / 83-896-6 over full 16 games

Summary

If you believe VD will not improve over 2006 and/or 2007 and will simply piggy-back Martz's passing success, a good baseline for a full 16-game season is somewhere near 75-850-6. These numbers would have placed him #4 behind Gonzo, Witten, Winslow and Gates last year. However, if you believe VD will continue to improve, who knows his full upside...??

 

[The Shizzle]

The only problem is that Martz's number are geared toward a WR, not a TE. Martz has never had an elite TE in his schemes. So this worries me.

 

[Banger]

The only problem is that Martz's number are geared toward a WR, not a TE. Martz has never had an elite TE in his schemes. So this worries me.

Agreed. He may be worth a late flyer but he'll be hyped too much again this year. I'll let someone else grab him and grab Cooley who will be cheaper and better.

 

[SR388]

The only problem is that Martz's number are geared toward a WR, not a TE. Martz has never had an elite TE in his schemes. So this worries me.

BingoAlso, I love V.Davis, but he's ALWAYS nicked up.

 

[GloryDaze]

The only problem is that Martz's number are geared toward a WR, not a TE. Martz has never had an elite TE in his schemes. So this worries me.

Agreed. He may be worth a late flyer but he'll be hyped too much again this year. I'll let someone else grab him and grab Cooley who will be cheaper and better.

I'm also with these guys.

 

[Tanner9919]

Mike Martz is going to have a HUGE impact on VD's stats in '08. For the sake of argument, let's ignore's Martz's jaw-dropping passing stats as a the Rams HC. Instead, let's focus on his stint with the Lions as their OC.

Few will argue that Alex Smith and/or Shaun Hill strike fear in their opponents' eyes. I would argue, however, the same could have been said for Kitna prior to (...and during) his tenure in DET.

Here are the passing stats for the Lions and 49ers over the past two years...

Detroit Lions

2007: 372-596 for 3820 yards and 21 TD's

2006: 368-587 for 3878 yards and 19 TD's

San Franciso 49ers:

2007: 257-444 for 2688 and 16 TD's

2006: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

Averaging the numbers over the past two seasons, Martz's offense...

1) Completed 40% more passes

2) Had 54% more passing yards

3) Had 29% more TD passes

How may this affect VD?? Let's see...

Vernon Davis career average per game (2006 and 2007 seasons):

3.0 receptions for 32.3 yards and 0.29 TD's

Vernon Davis average per game in 2007:

3.7 receptions for 36.4 yards and 0.29 TD's

If we apply the percent increases of the Lions passing offense over the 49ers passing offense to both VD's 1) career averages and 2) 2007 averages, we get the following...

Vernon Davis projections (using career average per game) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

4.2 receptions for 50 yards and 0.38 TD's / 67-800-6 over full 16 games

Vernon Davis projections (using average per game in 2007) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

5.2 receptions for 56 yards and 0.38 TD's / 83-896-6 over full 16 games

Summary

If you believe VD will not improve over 2006 and/or 2007 and will simply piggy-back Martz's passing success, a good baseline for a full 16-game season is somewhere near 75-850-6. These numbers would have placed him #4 behind Gonzo, Witten, Winslow and Gates last year. However, if you believe VD will continue to improve, who knows his full upside...??

not a chance..

name the last pro bowl TE that came from a Martz offense: name the last TE in a Martz offense to catch 50 balls..

if Alex Smith couldn't handle the dink-n-dunk offense, how's he going to handle Martz' complex schemes???!

If it was Norv Turner or Cam Cameron as OC, I'd agree, Davis is up for a big season , but NOT with Martz calling plays..

 

[Bizkiteer]

So, let's put the nervous VD owners in the same support group as the nervous Gore owners.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Who will Martz turn Vernon Davis into?

If we're talking the Lions TEs, will Davis be a high priced Sean McHugh or Dan Campbell?

Or if we go back to his days with the Rams, a high priced Brandon Manumaleuna or Roland Williams?

 

[RAPTURE]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

 

[SR388]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

You are thinking about what could happen or what you would do.The stats suggest otherwise. TE's don't produce in his system. That's not to say they can't or that it won't change with Davis, but all we have to go on in years of evidence suggesting that Davis won't get the bump that the OP is suggesting.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Percentage of team's receiving yards in 2007

Gonzo (KC) - 36.8%

Gates (SD) - 32.7%

Winslow (CLE) - 29.7%

Witten (DAL) - 25.9%

Davis (SF) - 24.6%

Cooley (WAS) - 22.7%

Shockey (NYG) - 22.2%

Scheffler (DEN) - 20.6%

Daniels (HOU) - 20.5%

Miller (PIT) - 18.4%

Clark (IND) - 16.8%

 

[Weiner Dog]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

 

[thecatch]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

It's rather short-sighted to think Martz won't use his best receiver because he happens to be listed as a TE. Whether or not Davis can stay healthy or Smith can get him the ball (if he's even the starter... Hill seemed to do a better job in this regard) is anyone's guess

 

[Tau837]

The only problem is that Martz's number are geared toward a WR, not a TE. Martz has never had an elite TE in his schemes. So this worries me.

Agreed. He may be worth a late flyer but he'll be hyped too much again this year. I'll let someone else grab him and grab Cooley who will be cheaper and better.

And Kitna is an order of magnitude better than Alex Smith.

 

[Borat]

How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

What?Anyway, I don't think people are saying that Davis will not improve. I think people are questioning whether Davis will "get silly," or whatever the slang was.

 

[squistion]

The threshold question is: will Martz alter his offensive philosophy favoring WRs to work with the players he currently has or will he bring in other players who better fit his offensive scheme?

I would opt for the latter as Martz chonrically underuitilized Kevin Jones (when healthy) who in the past had proven to be one the better pass catching RBs in league. Instead Martx focused on retreads like Furrey and McDonald that he had used in the past. I would think something similar would again be the case with Davis and he will be afterthought, at best.

 

[CalBear]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open?

No, he'll magically drop the pass. Davis has quite a long way to go to be considered as good as Ricky Dudley. He has a long way to go from there to be considered a top NFL TE. A crappy QB and a gimmicky WR-oriented offense do not bode well for an overrated, injury-prone TE who has yet to prove anything at the NFL level.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

catching passes from a horrid QB is one thing to consider for VD not producing. The other train of thought that has been kicked around the last 2years is that VD cannot learn a pro offense. Right after he was drafted there were reports that he may not have it all 'upstairs' to learn a pro offense. his production isn't a big surprise as he wasn't dominant at college for being the best athlete on the field most of the time. i think we're a year away from the label 'workout' warrior.

 

[Weiner Dog]

The threshold question is: will Martz alter his offensive philosophy favoring WRs to work with the players he currently has or will he bring in other players who better fit his offensive scheme? I would opt for the latter as Martz chonrically underuitilized Kevin Jones (when healthy) who in the past had proven to be one the better pass catching RBs in league. Instead Martx focused on retreads like Furrey and McDonald that he had used in the past. I would think something similar would again be the case with Davis and he will be afterthought, at best.

KJ had 94 receptions in the two years under Martz...he only had 48 receptions the previous two years (despite playing 3 additional games).

 

[squistion]

The threshold question is: will Martz alter his offensive philosophy favoring WRs to work with the players he currently has or will he bring in other players who better fit his offensive scheme? I would opt for the latter as Martz chonrically underuitilized Kevin Jones (when healthy) who in the past had proven to be one the better pass catching RBs in league. Instead Martx focused on retreads like Furrey and McDonald that he had used in the past. I would think something similar would again be the case with Davis and he will be afterthought, at best.

KJ had 94 receptions in the two years under Martz...he only had 48 receptions the previous two years (despite playing 3 additional games).

That was off the top of my head as I thought he was better before Martz arrived, but I will take your word for it. I own Kevin Jones in one league and I was probably thinking of last season where my perception was he underutilzed in all aspects of the game when healthy.

 

[Weiner Dog]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

OK...to clarify, the following players have been the TE's under Martz:Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

 

[SR388]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

OK...to clarify, the following players have been the TE's under Martz:Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

If anything, you proved what was already proven in an earlier post. Nothing from Martz's past coaching stops suggest VD will get "silly".

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

OK...to clarify, the following players have been the TE's under Martz:Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

OK, so now 'Martz gets the TEs involved' is your tune? That's a far cry from your subject title: Vernon DavisGonna get silly on the NFL in '08

I stand by my original comments:

Who will Martz turn Vernon Davis into?

If we're talking the Lions TEs, will Davis be a high priced Sean McHugh or Dan Campbell?

Or if we go back to his days with the Rams, a high priced Brandon Manumaleuna or Roland Williams?

Seeing as Vernon Davis was the TE DRAFTED THE HIGHEST EVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE (6th overall) - I'd expect more than an effort comparable to that of a Brandon Manumaleuna.

Maybe you should alter your post title to: SILLY

...and end it at that.

 

[Weiner Dog]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

OK...to clarify, the following players have been the TE's under Martz:Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

If anything, you proved what was already proven in an earlier post. Nothing from Martz's past coaching stops suggest VD will get "silly".

Here's what I proved...All five TE's have sucked before, during and after Martz's reign. To use a sample size of five under-performing TE's and attempt to establish a future trend is comical.

 

[Weiner Dog]

For the people in the "Martz has never produced a pass-receiving TE", do you honestly believe what you're writing? Seriously? It's 3rd-and-12. Martz needs a first down. Do you realistically believe Davis will not be running a route? Or do you realistically believe Davis will magically be unable to get open? Or do you think Martz will simply call Davis to the sidelines b/c he was unable to develop a play using him as a receiver?

Martz has proven over multiple seasons that he can develop a passing offense which nets chunks of catches, yards and TD's. How can people, in the heart of hearts, believe Davis will not improve will be sorely mistaken.

Also, Martz's offense is built on a numbered passing-tree. It's much more simple than the West Coast offense. In fact, Kitna's '07 season was a mirror image of his '06 season. Warner's best season ever was his first season running Martz's offense. It's not a difficult offense. The 49ers have the needed RB in Gore to run the offense. They have the needed underneath receiver in Davis to the run the offense. Now...they simply need to find somebody to stretch the field to run the offense.

TE's don't produce in his system.

What TE's have played under Martz's system?? What were their stats before/after Martz arrival/departure??

I posted the names of the TEs, you go do the flippin' research. They don't post diddly squat for numbers, although the TE before Martz got to Detroit was Marcus Pollard, and he put up a respectable 500 yards and 3TDs and then his numbers slid off the cliff - even though he was active for 15 games - but only started in 5.http://www.nfl.com/players/marcuspollard/p...le?id=POL419904

OK...to clarify, the following players have been the TE's under Martz:Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

Seeing as Vernon Davis was the TE DRAFTED THE HIGHEST EVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE (6th overall) - I'd expect more than an effort comparable to that of a Brandon Manumaleuna.

Ahhh...so when the numbers do not work in your favor, you immediately disallow the comparison b/c Vernon Davis is better than Manumaleuna...or Campbell...or McHugh...or Williams...or Pollard.The old Catch-22 response. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Hey champ, shorten your moniker by a word. I originally showed you that Pollard's numbers dwindled.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Hey champ, shorten your moniker by a word. I originally showed you that Pollard's numbers dwindled.

I'll pass, chief.

 

[Couch Potato]

Guys, I need to make a point here that's being missed by a lot of posters. This is coming from a Bay Area guy who follows the 49ers pretty closely, and correctly predicted the Martz hiring a week or two before anyone on this board was even discussing it as a possibility.

The point I want to make is that people need to avoid getting caught up in Davis' TE designation and therefore projecting that Martz will under-utilize him. He'll essentially be a TE in title only in this offense. Martz likes his 4 receivers running patterns, and Vernon Davis will be one of those receivers. Just as it was Holt/Bruce/Curtis/McDonald in StL, and Williams/Johnson/Furrey/McDonald in DET, it'll be Jackson/Battle/Davis/undetermined (Hill?) in SF.

How the offense produces will depend on a lot of things. These guys have a looooong way to go to learn Mad Mike's system this offseason. And Davis has to show he can do it, just as the QBs and other offensive players have to show they can do it.

But don't just assume Davis won't be a factor because he's a TE and Martz hasn't used TEs as receivers much in the past. That's too simplistic. Davis' role will be as a pass catcher, not as a blocker.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Percentage of team's receiving yards in 2007

Gonzo (KC) - 36.8%

Gates (SD) - 32.7%

Winslow (CLE) - 29.7%

Witten (DAL) - 25.9%

Davis (SF) - 24.6%

Cooley (WAS) - 22.7%

Shockey (NYG) - 22.2%

Scheffler (DEN) - 20.6%

Daniels (HOU) - 20.5%

Miller (PIT) - 18.4%

Clark (IND) - 16.8%

Since very few impact UFA WR's will be available for the 49ers and it's highly unlikely they find starter-ready rookie WR with the #29 overall pick, I think it's safe to assume the receiving core will be VD, Gore, DJax, Battle and maybe Hill. If this is indeed the case, I wouldn't think VD will deviate much from his approx 1/4 allocation of the team's receiving yards. If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

 

[Couch Potato]

Weiner Dog, I think you are making too many assumptions about the overall productivity of the SF offense in 2008. This is a complicated offense to learn and there is no QB on the roster with Kitna's experience. There will be a lot of growing pains.

And beware of using extrapolation for Davis the way you do. Things just don't work that way in real life.

I think assuming 3800 yards of passing is a major mistake. This was a historically bad offensive team last year. Historically bad. If they rise to mediocre I'll be happy. You really should temper your enthusiasm for Davis' numbers quite a bit IMO.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Weiner Dog, I think you are making too many assumptions about the overall productivity of the SF offense in 2008. This is a complicated offense to learn and there is no QB on the roster with Kitna's experience. There will be a lot of growing pains.

And beware of using extrapolation for Davis the way you do. Things just don't work that way in real life.

I think assuming 3800 yards of passing is a major mistake. This was a historically bad offensive team last year. Historically bad. If they rise to mediocre I'll be happy. You really should temper your enthusiasm for Davis' numbers quite a bit IMO.

Respectively, I gotta disagree with you. Before Martz arrived in DET, the same exact statements could be said for the Lions. As with the 49ers in '07, the Lions were coming off a horrible passing season in '05. Heck, the Lions did not top 3,000 passing yards from '02 thru '05. Even the current 49ers squad has not had 4-straight seasons with less than 3,000 yards passing.Lions in 2005: 297-520 for 2848 yards and 15 TD's vs 49ers in 2007: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

The similarities are uncanny. In order to attempt and predict future production, we only have two options:

1) To assume

2) To use historical production

Sure...Davis could post 50-500-4 again and nobody would blink an eye. However, I think it can be stated that 800-900 yards receiving by Davis is truly achievable given the assumptions based on past historical production.

I also disagree there will be growing pains with Martz's offense. Warner had his best season under Martz the first year, while Kitna's '06 performance was a near mirror image of his '07 season.

This will be the year Davis realizes his potential.

 

[Couch Potato]

Well, good luck. It'd be great if you're right.

If he tops 50-650-6 I'd be ecstatic. I don't think his numbers will go that high.

I think you're giving too much credit to the 49er QBs' quick ability to be productive in the new offense, as well as Davis' own growth. I won't say it can't happen, but I wouldn't be placing any bets on it. I think Kitna's experience and ability to pick up the offense quickly, and other factors, are not being given enough consideration.

 

[Blue-Kun]

If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

Have you kept track of the Niners these past few seasons?

The Niners passing game hasn't cracked 3,000 yards in the past 3 seasons. The last Niners team that cracked 3800+ yards passing was in 2000 where Garcia had an absolutely monster year with Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens as receivers.

A number of people on the Davis bandwagon already thought this would be the year he would breakout. You also seem to be under the assumption Alex Smith is as good as Kurt Warner or Jon Kitna when he's floundered these past few years.

Oh yeah, one last thing. Davis' yards/rec ratio was 9.8 last year.

Gates: 13.1

Gonzalez: 11.8

Cooley: 11.9

Clark: 10.6

Just a note.

 

[Weiner Dog]

If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

Have you kept track of the Niners these past few seasons?

The Niners passing game hasn't cracked 3,000 yards in the past 3 seasons. The last Niners team that cracked 3800+ yards passing was in 2000 where Garcia had an absolutely monster year with Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens as receivers.

Have you kept track of the Lions these past few seasons?Before Martz arrived, the Lions had not cracked 3,000 yards in the past 4 season. The last Lions team that cracked 3800+ yards pass was in 1995.

 

[Weiner Dog]

If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

A number of people on the Davis bandwagon already thought this would be the year he would breakout. You also seem to be under the assumption Alex Smith is as good as Kurt Warner or Jon Kitna when he's floundered these past few years.

Warner's career stats were 4-11 for 39 yards prior to his first year with Martz. His first season under Martz produced 325-399 for 4353 yards and 41 TD's. Can Alex Smith do this?? He has the "#1 overall pick" pedigree. However, he's also coming off an '07 season where he regressed from the prior season. It's anybody's guess. Out of 11 career seasons, Kitna has had a positive TD-INT ratio in only two of them.

 

[Blue-Kun]

Before Martz arrived, the Lions had not cracked 3,000 yards in the past 4 season.

Uh, what?2005: 3021 passing yards2004: 3124Actually now that I take a full look at it, seems like the only season they hadn't in 2001-2007 was 2002 where they only had 2988.

 

[SR388]

If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

A number of people on the Davis bandwagon already thought this would be the year he would breakout. You also seem to be under the assumption Alex Smith is as good as Kurt Warner or Jon Kitna when he's floundered these past few years.

Warner's career stats were 4-11 for 39 yards prior to his first year with Martz. His first season under Martz produced 325-399 for 4353 yards and 41 TD's. Can Alex Smith do this?? He has the "#1 overall pick" pedigree. However, he's also coming off an '07 season where he regressed from the prior season. It's anybody's guess. Out of 11 career seasons, Kitna has had a positive TD-INT ratio in only two of them.

Warner was also on a team that was loaded with talent, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Bruce, Holt, FAULK! The niners best WR is Arnez Battle, and Im being generous because I really like the guy. I can see Davis having a breakout year, but it isn't going to be for the statistics you mentioned. Extrapolating the average percentage of yards a team improved apon by hiring a coach, and then using that extrapolation of yards by the percentage of the teams offense that player had the year prior (under an entirely different offensive system) isn't reasonable.

 

[Weiner Dog]

If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

A number of people on the Davis bandwagon already thought this would be the year he would breakout. You also seem to be under the assumption Alex Smith is as good as Kurt Warner or Jon Kitna when he's floundered these past few years.

Warner's career stats were 4-11 for 39 yards prior to his first year with Martz. His first season under Martz produced 325-399 for 4353 yards and 41 TD's. Can Alex Smith do this?? He has the "#1 overall pick" pedigree. However, he's also coming off an '07 season where he regressed from the prior season. It's anybody's guess. Out of 11 career seasons, Kitna has had a positive TD-INT ratio in only two of them.

Warner was also on a team that was loaded with talent, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Bruce, Holt, FAULK! The niners best WR is Arnez Battle, and Im being generous because I really like the guy.

I agree 100%. The chance of a guy like Alex Smith or Shaun Hill cracking 4,000 yards and 40+ TD's are slim to none. I was just making the point that Martz was not taking over an offense with Steve Young or Joe Montana on the helm.

 

[Despyzer]

Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

Not if you are going to twist the stats.Roland Williams stats immediately improved once he left Martz's system

Manumaleuna's stats haven't really dropped off much since leaving Martz despite playing BEHIND Antonio Gates.

You're going to disregard Polard because of his age, but not Campbell and McHugh because of their inexperience?

 

[SR388]

Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

Not if you are going to twist the stats.Roland Williams stats immediately improved once he left Martz's system

Manumaleuna's stats haven't really dropped off much since leaving Martz despite playing BEHIND Antonio Gates.

You're going to disregard Polard because of his age, but not Campbell and McHugh because of their inexperience?

And I would add that Pollard is the best receiving TE to play under Martz.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Percentage of team's receiving yards in 2007

Gonzo (KC) - 36.8%

Gates (SD) - 32.7%

Winslow (CLE) - 29.7%

Witten (DAL) - 25.9%

Davis (SF) - 24.6%

Cooley (WAS) - 22.7%

Shockey (NYG) - 22.2%

Scheffler (DEN) - 20.6%

Daniels (HOU) - 20.5%

Miller (PIT) - 18.4%

Clark (IND) - 16.8%

Since very few impact UFA WR's will be available for the 49ers and it's highly unlikely they find starter-ready rookie WR with the #29 overall pick, I think it's safe to assume the receiving core will be VD, Gore, DJax, Battle and maybe Hill. If this is indeed the case, I wouldn't think VD will deviate much from his approx 1/4 allocation of the team's receiving yards. If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

The above percentages fail to include any Mike Martz TEs from Detroit, so you're really making my point. I'd also add that Frank Gore is better than any of the RBs Martz had in Detroit, so your silly boy V-Davis will actually see fewer passes than the COLLECTIVE total of TEs in Detroit.This is what Weiner Dog does with each post... deeper and deeper he digs.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Before Martz arrived, the Lions had not cracked 3,000 yards in the past 4 season.

Uh, what?2005: 3021 passing yards2004: 3124Actually now that I take a full look at it, seems like the only season they hadn't in 2001-2007 was 2002 where they only had 2988.

If you look at my first post, I added that NFL.com uses net passing yards by subtracting yards lost from sacks. The point being made is the following...1) Martz took over the OC duties of a historically pitiful Lions passing squad in '06 and added a huge chunk of offense.2) Martz has now taken over the OC duties of a historically pitiful 49ers passing squad in '08 and...??

 

[Weiner Dog]

Sean McHugh - No receptions in one season before Martz...20 receptions in the two seasons under Martz.

Dan Campbell - Hurt in '07, but had 21 receptions in '06. Previous high of 22 receptions (over 9 seasons) in '02.

Brandon Manumaleuna - 3 of his 4 best receiving seasons under Martz.

Roland Williams - 36 receptions in two seasons under Martz...78 receptions in the 5 other seasons.

Marcus Pollard - Was 34 years-old when Martz was named OC for the Lions.

Can we now squash the whole "Martz doesn't get TE's involved"??

Not if you are going to twist the stats.Roland Williams stats immediately improved once he left Martz's system

Manumaleuna's stats haven't really dropped off much since leaving Martz despite playing BEHIND Antonio Gates.

You're going to disregard Polard because of his age, but not Campbell and McHugh because of their inexperience? :X

Feel free to posts the stats and look foolish. What...Williams going from a career best of 25-226-6 under Martz to a career best 33-298-3 with the Raiders?? Come on, man. Go rent a movie tonight.Manumaleuna?!?!? The guy has not topped 100 yards receiving in any season since Martz left. Thanks for wasting 30 seconds of my life.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Percentage of team's receiving yards in 2007

Gonzo (KC) - 36.8%

Gates (SD) - 32.7%

Winslow (CLE) - 29.7%

Witten (DAL) - 25.9%

Davis (SF) - 24.6%

Cooley (WAS) - 22.7%

Shockey (NYG) - 22.2%

Scheffler (DEN) - 20.6%

Daniels (HOU) - 20.5%

Miller (PIT) - 18.4%

Clark (IND) - 16.8%

Since very few impact UFA WR's will be available for the 49ers and it's highly unlikely they find starter-ready rookie WR with the #29 overall pick, I think it's safe to assume the receiving core will be VD, Gore, DJax, Battle and maybe Hill. If this is indeed the case, I wouldn't think VD will deviate much from his approx 1/4 allocation of the team's receiving yards. If this holds true, VD could see a 940 yard season based off the Lions 3800+ yards receiving last year.

The above percentages fail to include any Mike Martz TEs from Detroit, so you're really making my point. I'd also add that Frank Gore is better than any of the RBs Martz had in Detroit, so your silly boy V-Davis will actually see fewer passes than the COLLECTIVE total of TEs in Detroit.This is what Weiner Dog does with each post... deeper and deeper he digs.

Eureka!!! What was I thinking?? I will promptly drop VD for McHugh now that the "Martz TE infection" has left Detroit and entered San Fran.Dude, you got toasted a few posts back. You back??

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Keep diggin.... China awaits you.

 

[Sabertooth]

When are people going to realize that this injury prone roid freak is a bust? I think people must fall in love with his body fat percentage and Under Armor ads. Seriously, it's like a love affair with this guy. Tight end doesn't mean what some people think it means.

 

[Tau837]

Weiner Dog, I think you are making too many assumptions about the overall productivity of the SF offense in 2008. This is a complicated offense to learn and there is no QB on the roster with Kitna's experience. There will be a lot of growing pains.

And beware of using extrapolation for Davis the way you do. Things just don't work that way in real life.

I think assuming 3800 yards of passing is a major mistake. This was a historically bad offensive team last year. Historically bad. If they rise to mediocre I'll be happy. You really should temper your enthusiasm for Davis' numbers quite a bit IMO.

Respectively, I gotta disagree with you. Before Martz arrived in DET, the same exact statements could be said for the Lions. As with the 49ers in '07, the Lions were coming off a horrible passing season in '05. Heck, the Lions did not top 3,000 passing yards from '02 thru '05. Even the current 49ers squad has not had 4-straight seasons with less than 3,000 yards passing.Lions in 2005: 297-520 for 2848 yards and 15 TD's vs 49ers in 2007: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

The similarities are uncanny. In order to attempt and predict future production, we only have two options:

1) To assume

2) To use historical production

Sure...Davis could post 50-500-4 again and nobody would blink an eye. However, I think it can be stated that 800-900 yards receiving by Davis is truly achievable given the assumptions based on past historical production.

I also disagree there will be growing pains with Martz's offense. Warner had his best season under Martz the first year, while Kitna's '06 performance was a near mirror image of his '07 season.

This will be the year Davis realizes his potential.

The similarities are uncanny? The 2005 Lions had 528 more passing yards than the 2007 49ers... 23% more. Also, according to DD, only one team (2003 Lions) since 2002 had a lower YPA than the 49ers YPA (5.22) in 2007. I suspect this is what Couch Potato meant when he said their offense last year was historically bad.And you seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that the Lions added Kitna for the 2006 season. Harrington was their primary QB in that horrible 2005 campaign. Are you expecting the 49ers to bring in a new QB, or do you think Alex Smith is going to throw for 3800 yards?

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

When are people going to realize that this injury prone roid freak is a bust? I think people must fall in love with his body fat percentage and Under Armor ads. Seriously, it's like a love affair with this guy. Tight end doesn't mean what some people think it means.

He's this generation's version of James "Robocop" Thornton, who used to play for the Bears. A bodybuilder playing football. Although Vernon Davis is better than Robocop.

 

[Couch Potato]

The similarities are uncanny? The 2005 Lions had 528 more passing yards than the 2007 49ers... 23% more. Also, according to DD, only one team (2003 Lions) since 2002 had a lower YPA than the 49ers YPA (5.22) in 2007. I suspect this is what Couch Potato meant when he said their offense last year was historically bad.

My 'historically bad' reference was just to make the point that they have a steep hill to climb to become respectable offensively, let alone good, so I didn't clarify what I meant exactly. To be precise, 2007 was the first time in 49er history that they finished last in the league in both total points and total yards.