Vincent Jackson (1 Viewer)

[Dope]

70 catches for 1120 and a bunch of TD's??

That's Chad Johnson's breakout year territory.

I guess it's possible. I think that's a bit of a stretch.

Now...I will say that I never get a chance to see VJ play. I don't know if his less than 50% "catch" rate is due to bad hands or if it's due to deep patterns that are tough to complete...or just chemistry.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't understand those of you that can't see VJ's upside.

70 Receptions at 16.8 per catch would put him at 1120 yards. Given he's a TD threat I'm not sure how you can discount his ability to put up big numbers. You basically have to be counting on injury or an extremely low target total if you're projecting for much less than that.

The upside is huge if Rivers blossoms into an efficient passing QB and Turner gets him #1 type targets.

70 receptions means that he's getting targeted about the same amount of times as guys

I disagree. That's assuming the passing efficency remains the same as it was last year...one would think that both Jackson and Rivers will improve their efficiency.

Rivers played very well last year, but a large percentage of the passes that he just flat out missed were in fact intended for Jackson. So Jackson could improve his target-reception ratio next year if Rivers just spreads his misses out a bit more fairly. Still, Jackson is probably not going to get 120+ targets next year. Most teams don't get their starting TE and RB anywhere near 200 targets between them, but the Chargers do. The backup TEs and RBs should have another 50 targets, so that leaves 200-250 for the WRs as a whole. (Last year the WRs had 211 targets.)

I think Jackson could very easily have more than 70 targets in 2007, but 70 receptions would be difficult. Floyd and Parker will get a lot of looks, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers take a WR with one of their first two picks in this year's draft.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't understand those of you that can't see VJ's upside.

70 Receptions at 16.8 per catch would put him at 1120 yards. Given he's a TD threat I'm not sure how you can discount his ability to put up big numbers. You basically have to be counting on injury or an extremely low target total if you're projecting for much less than that.

The upside is huge if Rivers blossoms into an efficient passing QB and Turner gets him #1 type targets.

70 receptions means that he's getting targeted about the same amount of times as guys

I disagree. That's assuming the passing efficency remains the same as it was last year...one would think that both Jackson and Rivers will improve their efficiency.

Rivers played very well last year, but a large percentage of the passes that he just flat out missed were in fact intended for Jackson. So Jackson could improve his target-reception ratio next year if Rivers just spreads his misses out a bit more fairly. Still, Jackson is probably not going to get 120+ targets next year. Most teams don't get their starting TE and RB anywhere near 200 targets between them, but the Chargers do. The backup TEs and RBs should have another 50 targets, so that leaves 200-250 for the WRs as a whole. (Last year the WRs had 211 targets.)

I think Jackson could very easily have more than 70 targets in 2007, but 70 receptions would be difficult. Floyd and Parker will get a lot of looks, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers take a WR with one of their first two picks in this year's draft.

An over the hill McCardell had 70 receptions in 2005.

 

[Dope]

I don't understand those of you that can't see VJ's upside.

70 Receptions at 16.8 per catch would put him at 1120 yards. Given he's a TD threat I'm not sure how you can discount his ability to put up big numbers. You basically have to be counting on injury or an extremely low target total if you're projecting for much less than that.

The upside is huge if Rivers blossoms into an efficient passing QB and Turner gets him #1 type targets.

70 receptions means that he's getting targeted about the same amount of times as guys

I disagree. That's assuming the passing efficency remains the same as it was last year...one would think that both Jackson and Rivers will improve their efficiency.

Rivers played very well last year, but a large percentage of the passes that he just flat out missed were in fact intended for Jackson. So Jackson could improve his target-reception ratio next year if Rivers just spreads his misses out a bit more fairly. Still, Jackson is probably not going to get 120+ targets next year. Most teams don't get their starting TE and RB anywhere near 200 targets between them, but the Chargers do. The backup TEs and RBs should have another 50 targets, so that leaves 200-250 for the WRs as a whole. (Last year the WRs had 211 targets.)

I think Jackson could very easily have more than 70 targets in 2007, but 70 receptions would be difficult. Floyd and Parker will get a lot of looks, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers take a WR with one of their first two picks in this year's draft.

An over the hill McCardell had 70 receptions in 2005.

On 108 targets. For a guy who hasn't had a season of over 50%, 70% is gonna be pretty tough.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't understand those of you that can't see VJ's upside.

70 Receptions at 16.8 per catch would put him at 1120 yards. Given he's a TD threat I'm not sure how you can discount his ability to put up big numbers. You basically have to be counting on injury or an extremely low target total if you're projecting for much less than that.

The upside is huge if Rivers blossoms into an efficient passing QB and Turner gets him #1 type targets.

70 receptions means that he's getting targeted about the same amount of times as guys

I disagree. That's assuming the passing efficency remains the same as it was last year...one would think that both Jackson and Rivers will improve their efficiency.

Rivers played very well last year, but a large percentage of the passes that he just flat out missed were in fact intended for Jackson. So Jackson could improve his target-reception ratio next year if Rivers just spreads his misses out a bit more fairly. Still, Jackson is probably not going to get 120+ targets next year. Most teams don't get their starting TE and RB anywhere near 200 targets between them, but the Chargers do. The backup TEs and RBs should have another 50 targets, so that leaves 200-250 for the WRs as a whole. (Last year the WRs had 211 targets.)

I think Jackson could very easily have more than 70 targets in 2007, but 70 receptions would be difficult. Floyd and Parker will get a lot of looks, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers take a WR with one of their first two picks in this year's draft.

An over the hill McCardell had 70 receptions in 2005.

On 108 targets. For a guy who hasn't had a season of over 50%, 70% is gonna be pretty tough.

He's started how many games? I'll take the over on 50%.

 

[Dope]

I like the guy. I just don't see how a guy is going to either

a.) increase his career catch total form 47ish % to 66-70%

b.) increase his targets to the top guys in the league

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

Maybe this is a talent vs situation argument that Bloom and Pasquino can have. I don't know.

But as hard as I try I don't see the 65-1100-10 season no matter how hard I try.

 

[Chubbs]

I have VJ as a late round keeper from last year knowing McCardell was done. But if there is a WR to take a chance on , its VJ. Why....

1.) 6'5

2.) 4.4 40 yd dash

3.) 33 Wonderlic (Highest of any skill positions in his draft class) Therefore must be able to digest film and understand his routes, becuase he isnt a stupid kid.

4.) From articles, good Character, hasnt had off field problems.

AND 5.) Its his 3rd year. The magical 3rd year and he's the #1 in an offense that opposing defenses will focus on the running game.

All the pieces are there, and I'm betting on VJ to have:

74 rec 1153yds 9 TDs

Come Back to this thead at the end on 2007, I told ya so....

 

[mozzy84]

I have VJ as a late round keeper from last year knowing McCardell was done. But if there is a WR to take a chance on , its VJ. Why....1.) 6'5 2.) 4.4 40 yd dash3.) 33 Wonderlic (Highest of any skill positions in his draft class) Therefore must be able to digest film and understand his routes, becuase he isnt a stupid kid.4.) From articles, good Character, hasnt had off field problems.AND 5.) Its his 3rd year. The magical 3rd year and he's the #1 in an offense that opposing defenses will focus on the running game. All the pieces are there, and I'm betting on VJ to have:74 rec 1153yds 9 TDsCome Back to this thead at the end on 2007, I told ya so....

alot of people/owners said this last year, and people have been pimpin those stats since he got drafted. he had to show me more last season before I project those stats. He was invisible out there most games. I will be shocked if he gets 70 catches, and I'm sure someone will bump this thread one way or another (or one of the other 20 threads that will be exactly like this before the season starts)

 

[LHUCKS]

alot of people/owners said this last year, and people have been pimpin those stats since he got drafted.

No they haven't, he wasn't even starting last year.

 

[Despyzer]

I like the guy. I just don't see how a guy is going to either

a.) increase his career catch total form 47ish % to 66-70%

b.) increase his targets to the top guys in the league

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

I think this third option is the most likely to occur. He scored six last year and didn't even start half the games. He'll still be no better than the third red zone option, but I doubt Tomlinson will repeat the kind of year he just had in the end zone.

 

[LHUCKS]

I like the guy. I just don't see how a guy is going to either a.) increase his career catch total form 47ish % to 66-70%

Well almost every Pro Bowl WR has done this, so I'm not sure why it's impossible for VJ

b.) increase his targets to the top guys in the league

He doesn't need to do that to catch 70 balls.

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

I don't think many are projecting double digit TDs...I'd set the over/under at 8 probably. Given that he had six as the #5 option last year, I don't see that as much of a stretch now that he's #3. If anything that's conservative.

 

[Dope]

I like the guy. I just don't see how a guy is going to either a.) increase his career catch total form 47ish % to 66-70%

Well almost every Pro Bowl WR has done this, so I'm not sure why it's impossible for VJ

b.) increase his targets to the top guys in the league

He doesn't need to do that to catch 70 balls.

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

I don't think many are projecting double digit TDs...I'd set the over/under at 8 probably. Given that he had six as the #5 option last year, I don't see that as much of a stretch now that he's #3. If anything that's conservative.

I think you are erring at every chance on the optimistic side.I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just saying that I don't agree with you.Quick question because this came up earlier in this post.Non-PPR league, everything else standard. Which would you rather have in a dynasty league...VJ or Hines Ward?(I fall on the Hines side although I recognize the huge upside of VJ)

 

[mozzy84]

alot of people/owners said this last year, and people have been pimpin those stats since he got drafted.

No they haven't, he wasn't even starting last year.

he was supposed to be a starter at this time last year, according to most of his owners.

 

[noneother]

alot of people/owners said this last year, and people have been pimpin those stats since he got drafted.

No they haven't, he wasn't even starting last year.

he was supposed to be a starter at this time last year, according to most of his owners.

i was one of those owners, hoping I was premature, like I was with Steve smith, deion branch, and House... these guys take some time. New coach, No Keenan, everyone knowing about LT and Gates, there are no more excuses for VJ..

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

alot of people/owners said this last year, and people have been pimpin those stats since he got drafted.

No they haven't, he wasn't even starting last year.

he was supposed to be a starter at this time last year, according to most of his owners.

I was pretty adamant last year that he wouldn't start.This year, I am adamant that he will be the WR1.I wouldn't go too much by last year's stats since things have obviously changed. I think VJ should get around 100 targets this year (compared to 56 last year), and I think his rec% will improve.I am not as optimistic as LHUCKS, but I think 55-60 receptions for 825-900 yards is pretty reasonable.

 

[BoltBacker]

I like the guy. I just don't see how a guy is going to either

a.) increase his career catch total form 47ish % to 66-70%

b.) increase his targets to the top guys in the league

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

I think this third option is the most likely to occur. He scored six last year and didn't even start half the games. He'll still be no better than the third red zone option, but I doubt Tomlinson will repeat the kind of year he just had in the end zone.

I agree the third option is the most likely to occur but I'd also add that SD had Cameron last year, a healthy offensive line all season long, a healthy qb all season long. Of those three they are already going to miss one. The second is possible but unlikely. The third is certainly possible but isn't known for sure. VJ scored 6 times in limited action in an extremely efficient SD offense last season BUT his increase playing time could be offset in part to an offense that is likely to be less potent overall. Hey, I'd love to wear the tommygunz goggles and just assume Vincent Jackson is going to develop into a star based on a promising 27 catch season.

 

[BoltBacker]

I was pretty adamant last year that he wouldn't start.

True, you were but you follow Charger threads closely enough to know that in the opinion of a lot of people on the board Keenan would get passed on the depth chart by the end of the year OR Parker would get relegated to a #3 WR slot role by the end of the year to make room for Jackson. I think most people expected more than 27 catches out of Jackson last year.

 

[Blue-Kun]

Wasn't the last time SD had a 1,000 yard WR, Doug Flutie was the QB for the season?

Just checking.

 

[TS Garp]

As a Chargers fan, I've watched Jackson a lot, and I've been very impressed. He has a ton of upside, but the Chargers do spread the ball around quite a bit, so I think you have to temper your expectations. I'd draft him expecting 875/7, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him exceed that projection to the tune of 1050/10.

 

[Riffraff]

c.) Score double digit TD's as the 3rd option.

Jackson scored 4 of his 6 TDs after Floyd went out for the year.Floyd is also a tall red zone target.

 

[tex]

I traded Donald Driver for VJ and the 2.03 in a 16 team PPR dynasty league.

 

[Cerwin]

Vincent Jackson was also injured a lot last year which is cause for concern. On the upside he wasn't a starter most of the year and when he did get in the game he was able to get 6 TD's. I would hold on to him.

 

[LHUCKS]

As a Chargers fan, I've watched Jackson a lot, and I've been very impressed. He has a ton of upside, but the Chargers do spread the ball around quite a bit,

So did the Eagles until they got T.O.

 

[Chunky Soup]

As a Chargers fan, I've watched Jackson a lot, and I've been very impressed. He has a ton of upside, but the Chargers do spread the ball around quite a bit,

So did the Eagles until they got T.O.

And the Eagles stopped feeding #1 WR that much after they lost TO. Players as special as TO cause a team to change they're playbook. VJax is nowhere near TO and will not cause a change in offensive philosophy.

 

[428143]

I see a Bernard Berrian-like jump for VJ in '07

50 rec 700yds 6td's seems reasonable with the weapons surrounding him

He certainly has the potential to put up bigger stats, but not in SD at this point in time...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

As a Chargers fan, I've watched Jackson a lot, and I've been very impressed. He has a ton of upside, but the Chargers do spread the ball around quite a bit,

So did the Eagles until they got T.O.

?????The chargers throw to 2 people, Gates & LT, everyone else's targets are fairly meh.

 

[BoltBacker]

Expect 1100 yds and 12 TDs

These expectations are getting out of hand imo.I think the people expecting 60+/1000+/10+ for VJ fall into one of three categories;- Hopeful Charger fans- VJ dynasty owners that would like these #'s to be though of as "very possible"- The group of guys that fall in love with a WR because they disdain every other WR on the team and don't know enough about this guy to disdain him yet... so he's going to be a stud! (See: Matt Jones owners '06, Tyrone Calico owners '05).I don't think he comes anywhere close to the 70 receptions/1100 yards/12 TD's some are mentioning in this and other threads. If the WR situation stays exactly as it is now(which I doubt) then I'd look for a high side much closer to 50/800/8. Assuming they'll add a young guy and maybe a bench vet I'd knock those #'s down to 40/700/7. Finishing fourth in catches(Gates/Tomlinson/Parker) but probably second in yards. Receiving TD's are always tough to guess but Gates/Tomlinson will get theirs and Floyd will produce near the endzone and cut into VJ's TD #'s. Parker was pulled in short yardage situations by Cam but under Norv he could steal some of the pie as well.

Considering the just drafted a WR in the first I think my initial estimates may have been too high.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Considering the just drafted a WR in the first I think my initial estimates may have been too high.

agreed

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I haven't seen anything from Craig Davis that is terribly impressive. In the couple of highlight videos I watched, I didn't see him run away from anybody, display great moves, amazing hands... he looked fine, but nothing special. I'm certainly not ready to judge him, but he DID have Jamarcus Russell throwing to him and Bowe playing across from him. Just saying..

Considering the typical learning curve for WRs, I'd say Davis will have no effect on Jackson's 2007 numbers, whatever those may be.

 

[Giggity]

I haven't seen anything from Craig Davis that is terribly impressive. In the couple of highlight videos I watched, I didn't see him run away from anybody, display great moves, amazing hands... he looked fine, but nothing special. I'm certainly not ready to judge him, but he DID have Jamarcus Russell throwing to him and Bowe playing across from him. Just saying..Considering the typical learning curve for WRs, I'd say Davis will have no effect on Jackson's 2007 numbers, whatever those may be.

It's very unlikely he starts. VJ/Parker will be starting, I don't see any way they aren't.And if Davis kicks butt, I'd wager Parker is the one who goes to WR3/slot. VJACK is built/drafted to be the #1 WR. Rivers loves Jackson, he has all the tools, he's the future of their WR core. His numbers are very hard to guess. LT will get his. Gates will get his. What is left over? Hard to tell. 60 catches, 800-900 yards, 6-7 TDs. It would seem unlikely he goes much below that. Unless he takes huge steps back, he's the best WR they have on the team.Davis ideally for them becomes a #2 WR. Parker is too small, he's an ideal WR3.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't think Davis will affect VJ's numbers. He'll probably affect Parker's and Floyd's.

 

[BoltBacker]

I don't think Davis will affect VJ's numbers. He'll probably affect Parker's and Floyd's.

Wow, you don't think a first round WR that the brass is gushing about will affect VJ? I'd say if Davis isn't talented enough to draw some of Rivers looks from VJ to the direction of Davis then that pick is a flop. Sure, Parker and Floyd should be affected more but to say VJ won't be affected seems like a pretty bold statement.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't think Davis will affect VJ's numbers. He'll probably affect Parker's and Floyd's.

Wow, you don't think a first round WR that the brass is gushing about will affect VJ? I'd say if Davis isn't talented enough to draw some of Rivers looks from VJ to the direction of Davis then that pick is a flop. Sure, Parker and Floyd should be affected more but to say VJ won't be affected seems like a pretty bold statement.

Are we talking dynasty, or just 2007?In 2007, I think VJ is the clear #1 WR and Davis will compete with Parker and Floyd for playing time, but all three will play.

 

[BoltBacker]

I don't think Davis will affect VJ's numbers. He'll probably affect Parker's and Floyd's.

Wow, you don't think a first round WR that the brass is gushing about will affect VJ? I'd say if Davis isn't talented enough to draw some of Rivers looks from VJ to the direction of Davis then that pick is a flop. Sure, Parker and Floyd should be affected more but to say VJ won't be affected seems like a pretty bold statement.

Are we talking dynasty, or just 2007?In 2007, I think VJ is the clear #1 WR and Davis will compete with Parker and Floyd for playing time, but all three will play.

No, I was just talking about 2007.