Waiver Wire Week 3 Audible (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

Sep/18/2012 - 2012 Volume#130a (#1684)

Waiver Wire Special - week 3

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/podcast/getep.mp3?epid=1859

In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom go over the hot waiver wire pickups. Topics Include - how much to spend on Giants RB Andre Brown, why you should beat other fantasy owners to the punch and add Vikings WR Jerome Simpson this week, plus more!

QB

(Locker)

Tannehill (1)

Weeden (1)

RB

(MBush30-50/DWilliams5-10/PThomas5-10/Ingram5-10)

Leshoure (JBell) (20-30)

ABrown (DWilson) (15-20)

Richardson (7-15)

LMiller (5-10)

Ballard (1)

DEEP: Battle/Powell

WR

(Amendola-30-50PPR 10-20non-/LaFell20-30/DMoore20-30/Little15-20/Hawkins5-10)

Hartline (15-25)

Avery (10-20)

Edelman (3-5)

MoMass (1)

GTate (1)

DEEP: Driver

TE

(Celek 15-25/Rudolph 10-15)

Bennett 15-25

Pitta 10-15 PPR

DEEP:Winslow/Chandler/McCoy/Rosario

Drop

Collie (maybe)

Bess

Blackmon/LRob/Lewis

Gresham

RWilliams

Meachem

Dwyer/Redman

Burleson

RMoss

FDavis

Don’t Drop

MWilliams

DWilson

TYoung

Rodgers

 

[JaxBill]

DropBlackmon/LRob/Lewis

So you want to drop every Jags receiver right before they face the Colts secondary?

 

[The Jerk]

Great tribute to Mr. Sabol. He's already missed. Amazing contributor to the enjoyment of so many of us here in the SP and throughout the football universe.

 

[49er fan]

haven't yet listened to the show, but it seems as if these bidding values are much higher than the values Waldman suggested in the Waiver Wire Report...any reason for the difference?

 

[The Jerk]

I'm surprised that Leshoure is stated to be worth 3-4x the value of P.Thomas and Ingram despite very similar circumstances. Detroit has a muddled, RBBC looking backfield, with three players likely to split time in the role: Smith, Leshoure and either Best or a signing (Grant?) to be made later. At least in New Orleans, we know roughly what the distribution should be. At least the Saints players appear to be healthy, and have a history of combined RB production greater than that of the Lions.

It certainly is possible that Leshoure can be the feature back in Detroit, but I don't think the percentage is very high. He has no NFL track record, he is coming off a major injury, he has not proven to be able to protect Stafford, and he has shown off the field mistakes as well. All RBs must at some time take their first carry and receive their first pass, so I don't want to be too critical of him in that regard. But still, Leshoure seems like more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing, and I'm not understanding why he is 3-4x more "expensive" than players with much less certainty -- and far higher floors -- in Thomas and Ingram. I suppose it can be argued that Leshoure has a higher ceiling, but the odds of him reaching that ceiling seem quite low, at least to me.

I heard in the podcast that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram. I'll gladly defer to your opinion on player talent evaluation, but what post-injury evidence is there that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram? I seem to keep returning to Ingram instead of the others listed in the same tier, and I think that's because I believe Ingram is now undervalued due to the way in which he was overvalued last season. The one enormous caveat to this line of thinking is that New Orleans could have their entire season go down the crapper with all the distractions and the literal absence of their coach.

I'm just making sure that I am understanding the podcast correctly. If it was up to you guys, you would trade Ingram or Thomas straight up for Leshoure, right? And it's all just because of the higher ceiling, right?

 

[reprisal]

I'm surprised that Leshoure is stated to be worth 3-4x the value of P.Thomas and Ingram despite very similar circumstances. Detroit has a muddled, RBBC looking backfield, with three players likely to split time in the role: Smith, Leshoure and either Best or a signing (Grant?) to be made later. At least in New Orleans, we know roughly what the distribution should be. At least the Saints players appear to be healthy, and have a history of combined RB production greater than that of the Lions.It certainly is possible that Leshoure can be the feature back in Detroit, but I don't think the percentage is very high. He has no NFL track record, he is coming off a major injury, he has not proven to be able to protect Stafford, and he has shown off the field mistakes as well. All RBs must at some time take their first carry and receive their first pass, so I don't want to be too critical of him in that regard. But still, Leshoure seems like more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing, and I'm not understanding why he is 3-4x more "expensive" than players with much less certainty -- and far higher floors -- in Thomas and Ingram. I suppose it can be argued that Leshoure has a higher ceiling, but the odds of him reaching that ceiling seem quite low, at least to me.I heard in the podcast that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram. I'll gladly defer to your opinion on player talent evaluation, but what post-injury evidence is there that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram? I seem to keep returning to Ingram instead of the others listed in the same tier, and I think that's because I believe Ingram is now undervalued due to the way in which he was overvalued last season. The one enormous caveat to this line of thinking is that New Orleans could have their entire season go down the crapper with all the distractions and the literal absence of their coach.I'm just making sure that I am understanding the podcast correctly. If it was up to you guys, you would trade Ingram or Thomas straight up for Leshoure, right? And it's all just because of the higher ceiling, right?

Leshoure's place near the top of the list seems right to me. However, I dont really feel the 20-30% bid either. If he is still out there on the wire it seems kinda unlikely that anyome other than perhaps the Forte owner is gonna be real aggressive in going after him before he gets on the field. Kevin Smith is still healthy and most owners are still imagining his massive points from late last year and chalking up his mediocre output to SF than the fact that doesn't look all that great.The saints are going to pass like crazy and use all 3 backs. Thomas/Ingram are unlikely to be much more than flex plays on any given week. The Lions could really use a little more balance to get their offense firing on all cylinders. Kevin Smith hasn't distanced himself from Joique Bell this year. If Leshoure can get back up to speed he has a chance to take over a lot of the touches.

 

[Wadsworth]

DropBlackmon/LRob/Lewis

So you want to drop every Jags receiver right before they face the Colts secondary?

You should be used to this type of stuff by now.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Couple of observations that seem peculiar. Avery vs Hartline. Both in the same bidding range, but Hartline slightly higher. Hartline had a career day against a very depleted and overall bad Raider secondary. Avery is in the more explosive offense. I don't see the advantage to Hartline but that's me.

But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

DropBlackmon/LRob/Lewis

So you want to drop every Jags receiver right before they face the Colts secondary?

Gabbert is going to be too inconsistent to trust any of them except as desperation options. IND secondary was fine against MIN last week.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

haven't yet listened to the show, but it seems as if these bidding values are much higher than the values Waldman suggested in the Waiver Wire Report...any reason for the difference?

I'd imagine I have a more aggressive WW bidding strategy early in the year than Matt. I looked back over 2011, and while we got Murray, Newton, and Cruz, otherwise, there were really only 10-15 useful players at the most. When I see a player who has the talent and even temporary situation to contribute, I would say jump on it, bid so that you err on the side of winning a leshoure/hartline/abrown instead of missing out.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'm surprised that Leshoure is stated to be worth 3-4x the value of P.Thomas and Ingram despite very similar circumstances. Detroit has a muddled, RBBC looking backfield, with three players likely to split time in the role: Smith, Leshoure and either Best or a signing (Grant?) to be made later. At least in New Orleans, we know roughly what the distribution should be. At least the Saints players appear to be healthy, and have a history of combined RB production greater than that of the Lions.It certainly is possible that Leshoure can be the feature back in Detroit, but I don't think the percentage is very high. He has no NFL track record, he is coming off a major injury, he has not proven to be able to protect Stafford, and he has shown off the field mistakes as well. All RBs must at some time take their first carry and receive their first pass, so I don't want to be too critical of him in that regard. But still, Leshoure seems like more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing, and I'm not understanding why he is 3-4x more "expensive" than players with much less certainty -- and far higher floors -- in Thomas and Ingram. I suppose it can be argued that Leshoure has a higher ceiling, but the odds of him reaching that ceiling seem quite low, at least to me.I heard in the podcast that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram. I'll gladly defer to your opinion on player talent evaluation, but what post-injury evidence is there that Leshoure is more powerful than Ingram? I seem to keep returning to Ingram instead of the others listed in the same tier, and I think that's because I believe Ingram is now undervalued due to the way in which he was overvalued last season. The one enormous caveat to this line of thinking is that New Orleans could have their entire season go down the crapper with all the distractions and the literal absence of their coach.I'm just making sure that I am understanding the podcast correctly. If it was up to you guys, you would trade Ingram or Thomas straight up for Leshoure, right? And it's all just because of the higher ceiling, right?

post-injury, you're right that there is a question mark about how much of pre-injury leshoure we are getting.that being said, the DET RB situation has actually given us RB1 numbers and a focus on one back at times. the NO situation is always split, and as I said in the podcast, the presence of Ivory and Cadet almost insures that it will be split no matter happens with injuries. Leshoure at least theoretically has a chance to take over in a very productive offense, and the beat writers sound like they think he'll get that chance. I would trade ingram or thomas for leshoure, yes.

 

[DevilintheDetail]

haven't yet listened to the show, but it seems as if these bidding values are much higher than the values Waldman suggested in the Waiver Wire Report...any reason for the difference?

I'd imagine I have a more aggressive WW bidding strategy early in the year than Matt. I looked back over 2011, and while we got Murray, Newton, and Cruz, otherwise, there were really only 10-15 useful players at the most. When I see a player who has the talent and even temporary situation to contribute, I would say jump on it, bid so that you err on the side of winning a leshoure/hartline/abrown instead of missing out.

I think this strategy makes even more sense this season because RBs are so thin. Lots of the backup RBs were already drafted, so even if starters go down there aren't going to be that many gold mines on the waiver wires. Hence, everyone gets excited about an A. Brown, who may only start for one week. The pickings are slim this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Couple of observations that seem peculiar. Avery vs Hartline. Both in the same bidding range, but Hartline slightly higher. Hartline had a career day against a very depleted and overall bad Raider secondary. Avery is in the more explosive offense. I don't see the advantage to Hartline but that's me.But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

The possibility of Collie coming back and submarining Avery's value is the issue here. I said on the show that if it is just ceiling, not useful depth, that you are concerned with, Avery is the better play. If I knew Collie wasn't going to play this year, or even for another month, I would put Avery ahead of Hartline.I would be very eager to get Simpson and bid 15-20% to be sure I got him except in shallow leagues, where the number drops a little.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Why would I drop Danny Amendola even in a shallow league, I'm confused.

b/c STL pass offense looks limited and amendola is at best an emergency bye/injury fill-in, better to use your roster spots for guys that could at least amount to a regular starter in some scenario. usually youll find a WR with same outlook as DA in any given week on the WW, especially in a shallow league.

He still had 9 targets, was on the field for 52 of a possible 58 snaps (90%) and accounted for 36% of his team's targets (5th amongst WRs). I don't think you can find many WRs that are this involved on your WW. All my leagues are PPR though, so that's probably why our opinions differ. Thanks for the response.

I'm very glad I didn't drop him in several of my leagues last week. So he went from being drop worthy to being worth 30-50% of someone's budget?

 

[captbly]

Sep/18/2012 - 2012 Volume#130a (#1684)Waiver Wire Special - week 3http://subscribers.footballguys.com/podcast/getep.mp3?epid=1859In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom go over the hot waiver wire pickups. Topics Include - how much to spend on Giants RB Andre Brown, why you should beat other fantasy owners to the punch and add Vikings WR Jerome Simpson this week, plus more! RB(MBush30-50/DWilliams5-10/PThomas5-10/Ingram5-10)Leshoure (JBell) (20-30)ABrown (DWilson) (15-20)Richardson (7-15)LMiller (5-10)Ballard (1)

So my league doesnt have bidding. Waiver is reverse draft order. I am now with the #1 waiver pick. In a league weighted heavily on RBs. Do you use the #1 pick on ABrown?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Why would I drop Danny Amendola even in a shallow league, I'm confused.

b/c STL pass offense looks limited and amendola is at best an emergency bye/injury fill-in, better to use your roster spots for guys that could at least amount to a regular starter in some scenario. usually youll find a WR with same outlook as DA in any given week on the WW, especially in a shallow league.

He still had 9 targets, was on the field for 52 of a possible 58 snaps (90%) and accounted for 36% of his team's targets (5th amongst WRs). I don't think you can find many WRs that are this involved on your WW. All my leagues are PPR though, so that's probably why our opinions differ. Thanks for the response.

I'm very glad I didn't drop him in several of my leagues last week. So he went from being drop worthy to being worth 30-50% of someone's budget?

I was totally unimpressed with the Rams pass offense in week 1 against a very depleted Lions secondary. I thought 5-70 represented Amendola's ceiling. Obviously I was wrong as Bradford only had eyes for him in the first half and then the defense focused on him.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Sep/18/2012 - 2012 Volume#130a (#1684)Waiver Wire Special - week 3http://subscribers.footballguys.com/podcast/getep.mp3?epid=1859In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom go over the hot waiver wire pickups. Topics Include - how much to spend on Giants RB Andre Brown, why you should beat other fantasy owners to the punch and add Vikings WR Jerome Simpson this week, plus more! RB(MBush30-50/DWilliams5-10/PThomas5-10/Ingram5-10)Leshoure (JBell) (20-30)ABrown (DWilson) (15-20)Richardson (7-15)LMiller (5-10)Ballard (1)

So my league doesnt have bidding. Waiver is reverse draft order. I am now with the #1 waiver pick. In a league weighted heavily on RBs. Do you use the #1 pick on ABrown?

depends on how thin your WW is at RB. in a typical 12 team 20 man roster league it is close. The news on Bradshaw has been minimal, but neck issues can be a real problem and Brown looked good. The offense is good and I think Brown can hold off Wilson, if not work into a committee with Bradshaw. It's close. if the RB pool is really small on the WW, i would lean yes.

 

[captbly]

Sep/18/2012 - 2012 Volume#130a (#1684)Waiver Wire Special - week 3http://subscribers.footballguys.com/podcast/getep.mp3?epid=1859In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom go over the hot waiver wire pickups. Topics Include - how much to spend on Giants RB Andre Brown, why you should beat other fantasy owners to the punch and add Vikings WR Jerome Simpson this week, plus more! RB(MBush30-50/DWilliams5-10/PThomas5-10/Ingram5-10)Leshoure (JBell) (20-30)ABrown (DWilson) (15-20)Richardson (7-15)LMiller (5-10)Ballard (1)

So my league doesnt have bidding. Waiver is reverse draft order. I am now with the #1 waiver pick. In a league weighted heavily on RBs. Do you use the #1 pick on ABrown?

depends on how thin your WW is at RB. in a typical 12 team 20 man roster league it is close. The news on Bradshaw has been minimal, but neck issues can be a real problem and Brown looked good. The offense is good and I think Brown can hold off Wilson, if not work into a committee with Bradshaw. It's close. if the RB pool is really small on the WW, i would lean yes.

Thanks Sig. Im leaning that way as well. RB pool is non existent. Listening to the podcast now! Thanks guys

 

[DevilintheDetail]

But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

I would be very eager to get Simpson and bid 15-20% to be sure I got him except in shallow leagues, where the number drops a little.

Interesting about Simpson. Why so high on him? I know they need a deep threat, but is he really going to see that many targets? Won't he probably be the #3 receiving option behind Harvin and the TE?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

I would be very eager to get Simpson and bid 15-20% to be sure I got him except in shallow leagues, where the number drops a little.

Interesting about Simpson. Why so high on him? I know they need a deep threat, but is he really going to see that many targets? Won't he probably be the #3 receiving option behind Harvin and the TE?

last week the MIN pass o was curiously conservative with almost no downfield throwing, and Jenkins still got 5 catches. in week 1 Aromashodu and Jenkins combined for 6 catches and over 100 yards. Simpson is very talented and I would imagine he can do a lot more with those targets than Jenkins and Aromashodu can. They were raving about him in the offseason and really think they got a huge steal in free agency. Rudolph doesnt scare as much after watching week 2 and seeing him barely used.

 

[Warrior]

If Danny Amendola is on your waiver wire in a PPR league and you don't bid every single dollar to get him on your team, you're insane. In PPR, we're talking about a very solid, every-day starting WR2 that you're getting for free (only waiver dollars). It's like finding Dez Bryant on the waiver wire. Recommending $30-$50 is as bad as suggesting that we drop him last week...I'm really starting to question whether or not these articles/pieces of information through FBG have any value at all.

I can guarantee that every one of the top 10 waiver pickups listed this week go for a MUCH higher FAAB amount, if they're available on waivers. Likely 5-10x as much as is suggested. Most who follow these values will go through the entire season without getting a single decent waiver pickup.

With that said, FBG has a ton of great content and I love the Audible. But waiver bidding suggestions in all forms through FBG seems to be completely bass-ackwards.

 

[ohforpetessake]

Just curious, Sigmund, how you rate Dexter McCluster against the Hartline/Avery level this week (ppr).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just curious, Sigmund, how you rate Dexter McCluster against the Hartline/Avery level this week (ppr).

below. if he was still out there 3-5% at the most.

 

[Tampa Buc]

Have both R.Hillman and Ryan Williams on several teams but I need to make room for some waiver adds. Tonight you said to drop Williams but at least he is playing where Hillman has been on the inactive list for the first 2 games. Which one needs to be dropped? TIA

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Have both R.Hillman and Ryan Williams on several teams but I need to make room for some waiver adds. Tonight you said to drop Williams but at least he is playing where Hillman has been on the inactive list for the first 2 games. Which one needs to be dropped? TIA

hillman, mcgahee looked like he wasnt going anywhere last night

 

[Tampa Buc]

Thank you Sigmund. My thoughts exactly but didn't want to make Cecil mad. lol

 

[The Jerk]

But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

I would be very eager to get Simpson and bid 15-20% to be sure I got him except in shallow leagues, where the number drops a little.

Interesting about Simpson. Why so high on him? I know they need a deep threat, but is he really going to see that many targets? Won't he probably be the #3 receiving option behind Harvin and the TE?

last week the MIN pass o was curiously conservative with almost no downfield throwing, and Jenkins still got 5 catches. in week 1 Aromashodu and Jenkins combined for 6 catches and over 100 yards. Simpson is very talented and I would imagine he can do a lot more with those targets than Jenkins and Aromashodu can. They were raving about him in the offseason and really think they got a huge steal in free agency. Rudolph doesnt scare as much after watching week 2 and seeing him barely used.

Sigmund, Is Simpson the highest-upside non-PPR WR free agent on your list? How does he compare to the "don't drop" duo of Young and Tampa Mike? Something is holding me back concerning Mike Williams, and I guess it's the 8 targets in two games. He's second in targets, but just barely above Dallas Clark and Doug Martin. I understand the don't drop advice, but if the TDs weren't there, it would be more tempting (I'm not an owner. Just sayin'.)Titus Young is in a somewhat similar situation with respect to targets, but of course he's on a much higher offensive plane compared to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. It was assumed by most that Burleson was no longer relevant, and while that may be true in terms of Burleson's FF value, his continued presence has held down Young's production, too, at least so far. Add in the two tight ends, and there are a lot of mouths to feed despite the much larger pie.So to me, Simpson has the most upside of the three, and of all the listed wide receivers save Amendola in PPR. He might also have the lowest floor, just a little bit analogous to the Leshoure/Saints debate previously. In this case, however, we've seen Simpson produce some in his earlier career. He's also apparently fully healthy and all but guaranteed the #2 receiver slot in a week or two. I don't know that the glowing training camp/preseason accounts are really all that informative, as we heard the same about Young, Dez, etc., but still, better to hear good news rather than bad news if given the choice.Anyone see it differently? (I sure hope so, or this will get boring.)

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Hartline has 20targets in the last 5 qts.......the last 12 the phins actually controlled the game. The latter part is HUGE considering that may be the only game they aren't behind early. Brian also missed all of the off season so he had room to grow and get more comfortable with tannenhill. Saying that I doubt I'd play him this week

 

[tombonneau]

Thoughts on how much (if any) to bid on Bal K Tucker? I know, kicker, but we get 3/4/5 scoring so accurate kicker with big leg has value. He has 32 points as #1 kicker.

Side note, statistically, at what week in the season does the #1 kicker pretty much stay locked in at that spot? i.e. when it's clear this is a good kicker on a good not great offense that is going to hit a lot of FGs. I feel it's always pretty early in the season that the #1 kicker asserts himself and stays at the top, hence my desire to scoop up Tucker.

 

[CDM49er]

Is D. Baldwin droppable in 12 team/20 man rosters?

 

[pizzatyme]

DropBlackmon/LRob/Lewis

So you want to drop every Jags receiver right before they face the Colts secondary?

What about Gabbert makes you optimistic he would outperform what the Vikings did?

 

[bandarbush]

Re: Giants RBs I'm a little surprised you guys recommend bidding 15-20% (a fairly significant bid) yet also recommend holding David Wilson. If you're in a redraft league, most leagues only have 16-18 roster spots. This suggests that Bradshaw owners should burn 3 rosters spots on NYG RBs. That doesn't seem fun.

 

[pizzatyme]

Re: Giants RBs I'm a little surprised you guys recommend bidding 15-20% (a fairly significant bid) yet also recommend holding David Wilson. If you're in a redraft league, most leagues only have 16-18 roster spots. This suggests that Bradshaw owners should burn 3 rosters spots on NYG RBs. That doesn't seem fun.

This is really only the case because of the Bradshaw injury. I think Wilson is the future, but the here and now causes one to consider rostering Brown. While not fun, it could clear up in a week or two, or it could not.

 

[tombonneau]

Re: Giants RBs I'm a little surprised you guys recommend bidding 15-20% (a fairly significant bid) yet also recommend holding David Wilson. If you're in a redraft league, most leagues only have 16-18 roster spots. This suggests that Bradshaw owners should burn 3 rosters spots on NYG RBs. That doesn't seem fun.

I know every RB has value, but I simply had no interest in the crowded subpar backfields of the Giants and Steelers. Let other owners burn multiple roster spots for this mediocre at best production. :yuck:

 

[Captain Hook]

Thoughts on how much (if any) to bid on Bal K Tucker? I know, kicker, but we get 3/4/5 scoring so accurate kicker with big leg has value. He has 32 points as #1 kicker.Side note, statistically, at what week in the season does the #1 kicker pretty much stay locked in at that spot? i.e. when it's clear this is a good kicker on a good not great offense that is going to hit a lot of FGs. I feel it's always pretty early in the season that the #1 kicker asserts himself and stays at the top, hence my desire to scoop up Tucker.

You don't say how many teams or what the FAAB budget is but I would certainly go get him - high single figures on $100 budget or $20-30 on $1000 budget - IF you like a guy - GO get him

 

[tombonneau]

Thoughts on how much (if any) to bid on Bal K Tucker? I know, kicker, but we get 3/4/5 scoring so accurate kicker with big leg has value. He has 32 points as #1 kicker.Side note, statistically, at what week in the season does the #1 kicker pretty much stay locked in at that spot? i.e. when it's clear this is a good kicker on a good not great offense that is going to hit a lot of FGs. I feel it's always pretty early in the season that the #1 kicker asserts himself and stays at the top, hence my desire to scoop up Tucker.

You don't say how many teams or what the FAAB budget is but I would certainly go get him - high single figures on $100 budget or $20-30 on $1000 budget - IF you like a guy - GO get him

Was just looking for %. It's a 12 team $100 FAAB budget. I'm already down to $65 lots of folks still at $100. I bid a couple bucks if I get him so be it. I'm with you though, pay to get who you want.

 

[JaxBill]

DropBlackmon/LRob/Lewis

So you want to drop every Jags receiver right before they face the Colts secondary?

What about Gabbert makes you optimistic he would outperform what the Vikings did?

- I never said that but I think he could produce something comparable.- I'll turn the question around to you and ask what makes you optimistic that Gabbert will produce Week 2 Texans numbers and not Week 1 Vikings numbers?- I think people look at last week and the kneejerk reaction is "I TOLD YOU GABBERT SUCKS"- I don't think people give Houston's defense enough credit. That front 7 versus a depleted line was a disaster waiting to happen. JJ Watt pWned the Jags last year and did again this year.- There's a good chance that Eben Britton comes back to beef up the line. In his absence, they had to start journeyman Herb Taylor who was signed earlier that week.- If you want to drop LRobinson, go ahead, he's just a guy who had a good year at the right time. He might benefit at times from coverage rolled to Blackmon but doesn't really have big-play potential.- If you want to drop Marcedes Lewis, I can understand since there are a plethora of good TE and Lewis drops too many balls.- I would NOT drop Blackmon. Four targets last week doesn't sound like much but the Jags only ran a paltry 38 plays. Mularkey came out and said that he doesn't want Blackmon to get frustrated so I would think they'll try to get the ball in his hand.- Ponder had a 71% completion pct and a QB rating of > 110 by completing a bunch of short passes against the Colts.- Mularkey's system features short quick passes that the Texans defeated by pressing all day.- Blackmon's strength is his RAC. If he can slip a tackle...- Instead of ditching Blackmon, to me, this is the perfect buy-low opportunity especially in a keeper or dynasty league.

 

[crash2500]

Would you drop lrob for Jerome Simpson

 

[pizzatyme]

I will agree on Blackmon. The Colts DBs> Vikes DBs so that leads to my "optimism".

Harvin is >>>>>>>>>Blackmon

I'm sure I will be wrong here, however, for this game.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

But here's my question. I'm considering picking up Jerome Simpson who hit the waiver wire last week. What pct bid would you give for him in PPR?

I would be very eager to get Simpson and bid 15-20% to be sure I got him except in shallow leagues, where the number drops a little.

Interesting about Simpson. Why so high on him? I know they need a deep threat, but is he really going to see that many targets? Won't he probably be the #3 receiving option behind Harvin and the TE?

last week the MIN pass o was curiously conservative with almost no downfield throwing, and Jenkins still got 5 catches. in week 1 Aromashodu and Jenkins combined for 6 catches and over 100 yards. Simpson is very talented and I would imagine he can do a lot more with those targets than Jenkins and Aromashodu can. They were raving about him in the offseason and really think they got a huge steal in free agency. Rudolph doesnt scare as much after watching week 2 and seeing him barely used.

Sigmund, Is Simpson the highest-upside non-PPR WR free agent on your list? How does he compare to the "don't drop" duo of Young and Tampa Mike? Something is holding me back concerning Mike Williams, and I guess it's the 8 targets in two games. He's second in targets, but just barely above Dallas Clark and Doug Martin. I understand the don't drop advice, but if the TDs weren't there, it would be more tempting (I'm not an owner. Just sayin'.)

Titus Young is in a somewhat similar situation with respect to targets, but of course he's on a much higher offensive plane compared to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. It was assumed by most that Burleson was no longer relevant, and while that may be true in terms of Burleson's FF value, his continued presence has held down Young's production, too, at least so far. Add in the two tight ends, and there are a lot of mouths to feed despite the much larger pie.

So to me, Simpson has the most upside of the three, and of all the listed wide receivers save Amendola in PPR. He might also have the lowest floor, just a little bit analogous to the Leshoure/Saints debate previously. In this case, however, we've seen Simpson produce some in his earlier career. He's also apparently fully healthy and all but guaranteed the #2 receiver slot in a week or two. I don't know that the glowing training camp/preseason accounts are really all that informative, as we heard the same about Young, Dez, etc., but still, better to hear good news rather than bad news if given the choice.

Anyone see it differently? (I sure hope so, or this will get boring.)

I agree with the bolded. Sort of the same question you asked earlier. Would you trade Hartline or Avery for Simpson straight up? I guess that depends on what kind of floor and ceiling you feel comfortable with. For me, I'm already re-aligning my BB waivers to set Simpson as top priority ahead of Avery and then Hartline in that order.

I agree with Warrior that the bid percentages aren't realistic this early. I'll have to go in at least 50% or more to get Simpson. The bids are crazy high in the first 4 weeks as everyone is desperate to land the next Victor Cruz/Brandon Lloyd/Peyton Hillis, etc. And then after everyone is spent out, and there are tons of bargains on the wire. But this early in the season, you have to go all out to land your targeted player. I'll still put out hefty backup bids for Hartline/Avery but its unrealistic that I'll get them as every team is awarded at least one pickup in round 1. But I've got to get at least one of the 3 or sitting on 100% of my BB cash is going to suck.

I think that Avery or Hartline present better short term value, (higher floor/lower ceiling) but since we are playing with full rosters now, it's not that big of a deal until we get to the bye weeks and we need the production. Simpson has the highest ceiling and maybe the lowest floor. I think most teams can be patient until Simpson hits his stride, which could be sooner than expected.

I won't speak for Bloom, but when he claims that the Vikings got a free agent steal (Simpson) in the offseason, it perks my ears a bit. The only thing that concerns me about Simpson is Ponder is continually checking down and throwing short routes on conervative throws. I'd feel better about his upside if Ponder would be allowed to open up the offense more. But the Minnesota defense will all but ensure that Ponder will have to drill some passes deep this season.

 

[The Jerk]

I won't speak for Bloom, but when he claims that the Vikings got a free agent steal (Simpson) in the offseason, it perks my ears a bit. The only thing that concerns me about Simpson is Ponder is continually checking down and throwing short routes on conervative throws. I'd feel better about his upside if Ponder would be allowed to open up the offense more. But the Minnesota defense will all but ensure that Ponder will have to drill some passes deep this season.

I haven't seen the Vikings games, and if someone has and can weigh in, fantastic. Seeing the "talent" at WR2 in Minnesota, it's not a surprise that Ponder is checking down. There are probably not many situations in which his deeper route receivers are creating separation to allow for a higher percentage throw. It's a great point that Ponder is not going deep now, but it could mean that he doesn't have anyone he can trust deep. Simpson could possibly unlock that part of the offense.I'm struggling with how to compare Simpson with a Mike Williams type that appears to be in a low-target situation. Throw out the TDs and no one would be looking at Williams. But you can't just throw them out. I don't find it hard to roster a Williams, but when would I want to start him with all of 8 targets in two games? Williams may have the biggest ceiling/floor spread after Simpson. Of course, I haven't seen much of his games either, although I did see the sideline drop (after review) very late in the Giants game this past Sunday.If you already have a solid WR starting corps, I'd probably go after Simpson, then Williams, then anyone else. I figure that I won't displace my current starters for a high floor/lower ceiling player. Get me the hit or miss type -- like I mentioned concerning Alshon Jeffery -- as I can probably find a comparable one week plug-in starter as needed. The boom or bust type is the only one that can make my team better. However, if I am weak at WR already, I might get one of both, a steadier player to ensure against worst-case production and one boom or bust to give you a chance at higher production.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Thoughts on how much (if any) to bid on Bal K Tucker? I know, kicker, but we get 3/4/5 scoring so accurate kicker with big leg has value. He has 32 points as #1 kicker.Side note, statistically, at what week in the season does the #1 kicker pretty much stay locked in at that spot? i.e. when it's clear this is a good kicker on a good not great offense that is going to hit a lot of FGs. I feel it's always pretty early in the season that the #1 kicker asserts himself and stays at the top, hence my desire to scoop up Tucker.

wouldnt go more than 2-3% on any K

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Is D. Baldwin droppable in 12 team/20 man rosters?

yup, limited offense and not looking as good as last year

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Huge fan of the Audible and your work in general, Bloom.

My main local league is just a 10-teamer, 16 players per team. So I'm always trying to mentally re-align your suggestions with the realities of my league. Jerome Simpson is available, and I want to make sure I grab him if you think he's a must-roster kind of guy in a smaller league like mine.

Not to make this a WDID or anything, but just to provide a frame of reference, I already have Dez, Desean, Stevie Johnson, Amendola, and Britt on my roster. We start 3 and can flex a 4th. Should I go out of my way to fit Simpson onto my roster? Other potentially droppable players on my roster include Leshoure, BJGE, Pierre Thomas, and Jacob Tamme (though he's my only backup to Gronk). Do I jettison one of these guys to get Simpson on my roster now? If anything I guess I'd drop Tamme and only worry about backing up Gronkowski later in the year when he's on bye.

We don't do bidding, and our waivers already ran this week, so at this point he's available first-come first-served, so my question isn't about how much to bid for him or anything, but simply what caliber of player we should consider dropping to get him.

 

[everydayj]

If Danny Amendola is on your waiver wire in a PPR league and you don't bid every single dollar to get him on your team, you're insane. In PPR, we're talking about a very solid, every-day starting WR2 that you're getting for free (only waiver dollars). It's like finding Dez Bryant on the waiver wire. Recommending $30-$50 is as bad as suggesting that we drop him last week...I'm really starting to question whether or not these articles/pieces of information through FBG have any value at all.I can guarantee that every one of the top 10 waiver pickups listed this week go for a MUCH higher FAAB amount, if they're available on waivers. Likely 5-10x as much as is suggested. Most who follow these values will go through the entire season without getting a single decent waiver pickup.With that said, FBG has a ton of great content and I love the Audible. But waiver bidding suggestions in all forms through FBG seems to be completely bass-ackwards.

Interestingly enough, Andre Brown, Donnie Avery and Brian Hartline were the top waiver wire pick-ups in my league and they ALL went for the amounts laid out in the Audible. Either my league secretly has a lot more FBGs than I anticipate or Sigmund is pretty spot on. That being said, every league is different. What I DO know is that the values seem pretty in line for the going market in my league. Love the Audible.

 

[netnalp]

Would you drop lrob for Jerome Simpson

Or Sidney Rice for Simpson

 

[spodog]

Recommending $30-$50 is as bad as suggesting that we drop him last week...I'm really starting to question whether or not these articles/pieces of information through FBG have any value at all.

I can guarantee that every one of the top 10 waiver pickups listed this week go for a MUCH higher FAAB amount, if they're available on waivers. Likely 5-10x as much as is suggested. Most who follow these values will go through the entire season without getting a single decent waiver pickup.

With that said, FBG has a ton of great content and I love the Audible. But waiver bidding suggestions in all forms through FBG seems to be completely bass-ackwards.

Huh? How can that be? 5X a 20% bid is 100%. 10X would be twice your allowable limit. Unless you are simply exaggerating to make a point, this statement makes no sense except for the 1% recommendation guys. I think these recommendations have to be weighed against the tendencies in your league, which can vary widely. If your league is full of guys who tend to march into NFL Week 5 with less than 10% of their budget remaining, then you better crank up the bids early. I play in one league where guys tend to sit on their bid $'s until the end of the season, and then only burn through them if they are in playoff contention (not a strategy that makes a lot of sense, but it is a pattern every year), so I can sometimes steal guys away with below market bids in Weeks 1 through 6.

Take the advice offered for what's its worth, but temper it for the conditions in your league.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm no Bloom, and I'm sure he'll answer if he can, but I've been examining "bench" wide receivers a lot from the floor/ceiling perspective, as I alluded to in an earlier post:

Sidney Rice seems to have a higher floor than Simpson, but Simpson has the higher ceiling. Seattle's strong defense is likely to restrict passing, whereas Minnesota seems more likely to be behind and also playing more powerful offenses than in the NFC West, likely leading to more passing. Rice doesn't have to contend with Harvin. I see Rice as a more steady player than Simpson and less likely to be minimized in targets.

Laurent Robinson has basically done nothing except for his stretch last year with Romo. It's hard to predict what's going to happen with him, but at the very least, Simpson seems to hold more upside at this point. I don't see a large difference in terms of floor.

Just my thoughts. Hope it helps.

 

[The Jerk]

In terms of bidding literally all of your allotment on one player, that seems extreme to me. Yes, you want the next Cruz, but bidding high does not guarantee it works out they way. Blowing all of your money does however make it unlikely you get a shot at the next potential Cruz in a week or two.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

In terms of bidding literally all of your allotment on one player, that seems extreme to me. Yes, you want the next Cruz, but bidding high does not guarantee it works out they way. Blowing all of your money does however make it unlikely you get a shot at the next potential Cruz in a week or two.

Agreed. Most of the high dollar early season waiver wire adds were afterthoughts midway thru the season. And as for picking up Cruz, I picked him up for free a week before he blew up by following the "Searching for the next Brandon Lloyd" threads last year. Also got Torrey Smith & Eric Decker for free. And I honestly can't remember any good high dollar free agent adds that helped my team to win the championship. I think the biggest impact adds were later with low dollar bids cycling in waiver wire defenses.