Exploit and Avoid Week 2 (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

Any feelings on how new Victor Cruz fits in NY? Taking a shot on him recapturing magic with Allen going down. Leaving him on the bench for now.

Don't get fooled by the salsa dance. He's a clear 2nd/3rd in the pecking order after ODB gets his, and I expect Shepard to become the clear cut 2nd option over Cruz.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ryan at Oak, I know it's a dome team going West Coast but I think this will be a high scoring game. 

Big Ben vs CIN, I don't think he will hit the top 10 this week. 

Rodgers at Min, decent day but nothing over the top IMHO. Little bit of defense in this game. 

D.Carr vs ATL, bombs away

Manning vs NO, you saw what D.Carr did to them. My only concern is NY wants to shorten the game with their DL leading the charge, it's possible Manning is closer to 250/2

 

[Bojang0301]

Don't get fooled by the salsa dance. He's a clear 2nd/3rd in the pecking order after ODB gets his, and I expect Shepard to become the clear cut 2nd option over Cruz.

He was always the slot guy. Perhaps the correct mindset is to let him slide by but if Eli trusts him, he could still be a volume option flex even if he isn't lighting the world on fire. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Yup

The Saints were part of the Christmas give back program last week, that should continue. I just don't trust Cruz right now. Can he socre a TD on 4 targets a week? ODB only had 8 in their Dallas win. I would think they will try and get the ground game established vs the Saints so they can keep those guys on the sidelines. It's easy to draw up and another to execute the plan, Giants might have the team to do it. 

12 Team? What's on the WW? My league has some goodies but I'm full right now. 

His ceiling right now might be last week...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Wentz at Chi, no way I am starting him right now

Palmer vs TB, should be good for 250-300 and 2-3 Tds

Newton vs SF, he should be fine

Mariota at Det, good match up but I wouldn't rush him out there

Dalton vs PIT, not a huge fan this week.

 

[Bojang0301]

The Saints were part of the Christmas give back program last week, that should continue. I just don't trust Cruz right now. Can he socre a TD on 4 targets a week? ODB only had 8 in their Dallas win. I would think they will try and get the ground game established vs the Saints so they can keep those guys on the sidelines. It's easy to draw up and another to execute the plan, Giants might have the team to do it. 

12 Team? What's on the WW? My league has some goodies but I'm full right now. 

12 team... Pryor, Stills, White, Funchess, Kerley, Lafell and Adams on waivers that I would consider. I picked up Hogan and Agholor throwing stuff at the wall and seeing if anything sticks (had Sharpe and MWallace on bench). Rolling with no backup QB or TE until I hopefully establish a replacement. Didn't mean to make hijack this into an AC type topic but I'll take the input.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Osweiler vs KC, Folks are warming up to him and the soft KC defense quickly. 

Fitz at Buf, Short week, better choices.

Bortles at SD, good match up, travel time scares me some

Gabbert at Car, no no no

Garoppolo vs MIA, Rookie DB, Belichick will want to say hello. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

12 team... Pryor, Stills, White, Funchess, Kerley, Lafell and Adams on waivers that I would consider. I picked up Hogan and Agholor throwing stuff at the wall and seeing if anything sticks (had Sharpe and MWallace on bench). Rolling with no backup QB or TE until I hopefully establish a replacement. Didn't mean to make hijack this into an AC type topic but I'll take the input.

Sharpe and Wallace are good starts this week. I think you have a lot of the same level WRs, try to find the guy who is hurting at WR and do a 2-4-1 type trade. GL

 

[Bruce Leroy]

In the Packer/Viking game, I think you over looked Kyle Rudolph. I believe he will get a lot of looks on Sunday Night & have plenty of results.

Really like the posts. Excellent analysis. Definitely one of my favorite threads

 

[MattFancy]

In the Packer/Viking game, I think you over looked Kyle Rudolph. I believe he will get a lot of looks on Sunday Night & have plenty of results.

Really like the posts. Excellent analysis. Definitely one of my favorite threads

I picked up Rudolph in one of my leagues this week. He seemed to see an increase in targets and could be a nice safety valve for Bradford once he takes over. Plus, Rudolph was pretty good against the Packers last season. Had a 6/106/1 game against them.

 

[SayWhat?]

If you're starting Rudolph at TE, you're in desperation mode and it's only week 2.  No way he should be seeing anyones lineup.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

If you're streaming TE's, Kyle is definitely in the conversation, along with Jesse James, Virgil Green & Clive Walford

Personally I have Greg Olsen so I'm good there.

 

[MattFancy]

If you're starting Rudolph at TE, you're in desperation mode and it's only week 2.  No way he should be seeing anyones lineup.

I wouldn't say desperation mode. My TE spot is the weakest on my team for sure, but the rest of my team can more than make up for it.

 

[Yotes1]

Gotta say guys...This thread plus other's like SSND's videos make up for some of the frustration with the tech issues.  Thanks for the input MOP...and responders.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you're starting Rudolph at TE, you're in desperation mode and it's only week 2.  No way he should be seeing anyones lineup.

Gary Barnidge owner down?

 

[Statorama]

The Saints were part of the Christmas give back program last week, that should continue.

With Breaux out, it's going to be tough goings for what was already a suspect secondary.

**Nice write-ups by the way MoP, appreciate the effort

 

[trogg78]

He had a workmanlike effort last week. I don't believe new Orleans will repeat themselves in NY this week so I believe he will be used a lot to shorten up the game. He's an RB2/3 most weeks, he doesn't catch a lot of balls so I'm not as flex happy with him. 

If Jennings is the best you got in re-draft you better be loaded everywhere else.

This thread just for the record, it's all redraft, I can't possibly figure out line ups in dynasty as every owner runs their team differently. But in redraft Jennings is an RB3 but not one I feel has tons of upside. Vereen gets catches there, they mix it up. 

I find it hard to believe you don't have Jennings in consideration for your redraft previews.  Of course it's your prerogative and I still enjoy your updates.  I think Jennings will have a big day against the Saints defense...that may just be wishful thinking.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

If you're starting Rudolph at TE, you're in desperation mode and it's only week 2.  No way he should be seeing anyones lineup.

The two seasons Rudolph played 16 games (12 and 15) he was TE 7 and 15 in my leagues. He's only 26 (27 in Nov) which is crazy cause it feels like he's been around forever, but it's not unreasonable to expect him to improve.

Some people rolled the dice and waited on TE. Now they are being let down by Barnidge, Fleener or Bennett. Or they could be waiting on Gronk, Green or Eifert to come back. 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Gary Barnidge owner down?

Barnidge never had a connection with RG3, and RG3's never been big on using his TEs. That's what a lot of people feared coming into the season and two big parts of the reason GB fell to the TE9-10 range despite finishing TE3 in 2015.

Now that RG3 is out for the next couple of months and McCown is back in ... well, I won't say anyone should ever cheer an injury, but Barnidge owners got exactly what they were looking for (and probably expecting). If you're sitting Barnidge now despite that for a WW JAG like Rudolph, why the hell did you draft him to begin with?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I find it hard to believe you don't have Jennings in consideration for your redraft previews.  Of course it's your prerogative and I still enjoy your updates.  I think Jennings will have a big day against the Saints defense...that may just be wishful thinking.

Barnidge never had a connection with RG3, and RG3's never been big on using his TEs. That's what a lot of people feared coming into the season and two big parts of the reason GB fell to the TE9-10 range despite finishing TE3 in 2015.

Now that RG3 is out for the next couple of months and McCown is back in ... well, I won't say anyone should ever cheer an injury, but Barnidge owners got exactly what they were looking for (and probably expecting). If you're sitting Barnidge now despite that for a WW JAG like Rudolph, why the hell did you draft him to begin with?

Get Some!!!

We like strong POV, good job. 

 

[Spike]

4 targets last week. 

Redraft league? 

I think Shepard has already overtaken Cruz (yeah, I know, stunning analysis by me) so I would not see Cruz as worthwhile in a redraft.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I think Shepard has already overtaken Cruz (yeah, I know, stunning analysis by me) so I would not see Cruz as worthwhile in a redraft.

Depends (yeah, I know). I feel confident in saying a McAdoo offense with an above-average QB like Eli can support 3 fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. We already know OBJ and Shepard are two of those. But who's the third?

If you think the mess at TE sorts itself out and one of Donnell or Tye can put up regular low-level TE1 production, I'd fade Cruz.

If you think Vereen builds on his passing-game involvement in year 2 in blue and becomes more Theo Riddick than Chris Thompson, I'd fade Cruz.

I'd buy into either or both, but I won't kill anyone who disagrees with me. If you're one of them, you can probably do worse than Cruz off the WW, assuming of course you're in a deep enough league where hitting a single or double with a WW guy actually matters.

 

[Captain Hook]

If you're streaming TE's, Kyle is definitely in the conversation, along with Jesse James, Virgil Green & Clive Walford

Personally I have Greg Olsen so I'm good there.

IF those are your choices then James and Green should be the choices - not sure I would even pick Rudolph over Walford as I agree with MOP that Oakland game should be very high scoring so Clive could see the end zone

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Green Bay at Minnesota +2.5 (44.5)

-J.Nelson, R.Cobb, D. Adams, 9-8-7 target distribution, 15-11-14 in PPR, seems like a pretty even split among the three of them so far. Adams still the most likely to give a dud next week but you have to start Nelson and Cobb. Cook and Rogers shared about 5 targets, minimal returns.

-Eddie Lacy had 14/60 plus 17 rec yds, owners are going to want a little more and they’re going to get it soon but the Vikes might not be so giving.

-Sam Bradford is likely to take over this week, hopefully he can find Stefon Diggs. The Vikes have tried a lot of exotic WRs that have come and gone, this guy just catches the football. He does other things but he has good hands and is reliable. He had 7/103 last week, hope Bradford doesn’t screw this up.

Final Score: Green Bay 27...Minnesota 17

I have this idea forming in my head that a smart, accurate Bradford is going to have a successful first game as a Vike. The Packers will score, creating a need to keep up, and the team as a whole will be extremely motivated in the grand opening for the stadium, niot to mention it's the Packers on SNF of course.

I can see Bradford peppering Diggs and Rudolph to keep up, and the Packers won't have any book on him with the Vikings and their D will be geared up to stop AP, which will also drive the short passing game. Just a theory.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

If you're starting Rudolph at TE, you're in desperation mode and it's only week 2.  No way he should be seeing anyones lineup.

Playing Sleeper TE is a yearly FF tradition, if you haven't played this aspect you haven't really played FF. There are probably 8 TEs in that conversation right now.

 

[tangfoot]

and the Packers won't have any book on him with the Vikings

They have enough film of the Vikes and Bradford to know what to expect. It's going to be ugly, and a Packers laugher. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have this idea forming in my head that a smart, accurate Bradford is going to have a successful first game as a Vike. The Packers will score, creating a need to keep up, and the team as a whole will be extremely motivated in the grand opening for the stadium, niot to mention it's the Packers on SNF of course.

I can see Bradford peppering Diggs and Rudolph to keep up, and the Packers won't have any book on him with the Vikings and their D will be geared up to stop AP, which will also drive the short passing game. Just a theory.

I like the way you took my game progno and then put yours alongside, excellent. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

They have enough film of the Vikes and Bradford to know what to expect. It's going to be ugly, and a Packers laugher. 

Seems impossible that he can understand the offense right away, probably going to be a month before we see what Bradford can really do. 

 

[Crystalsteam99]

In the Packer/Viking game, I think you over looked Kyle Rudolph. I believe he will get a lot of looks on Sunday Night & have plenty of results.

Really like the posts. Excellent analysis. Definitely one of my favorite threads

I agree completely. I think Kyle is being overlooked.He's only 26(Still has chance to improve),and will be the security blanket all year for Hill/Bradford. His 8 targets last week will be the norm IMO. If you look at Minny's schedule,they play many games they will be behind throwing the ball. Rudolph will surprise many this year.maybe not many TD's, but enough targets to make up for it. IMO has a chance to finish a top 10 TE in PPR. Barnidge finishing 2nd in points in most leagues last year.,why not Rudolph finishing top 10 this year.

 

[pinkham13]

Longtime Falcon fan . A little color for the Freeman owners out there. The Falcons have two excellent tackles and a great center. The guards however are below average. Chester on the right side should be retired and Levitre on the left just isn't getting it done. Coleman can hit the hole but its all straight line.The team is more invested in the explosive second rounder than Freeman from the Smith regime. I like Freeman's vision but he needs better interior blocking than he is getting. Coleman has no wiggle but can be dangerous as a pass catcher. Neither are going to be great rushers with this interior line though.

 

[Biabreakable]

Philly at Chicago -3 (42)

I am trying to keep an open mind but I am not buying into the Eagles just yet. I also think Ryan Mathews will not hold up, also 22/75 or whatever is not super impressive. I don’t think he got any targets in the passing game. Get out in front of Kenjon Barner and if you carry 6 RBs, I would stash him right now. You can always cut him in a couple weeks if something better pops up but I think if he gets a chance for more carries, he will show he’s the more productive RB.

Jordan Mathews looked great and you had to see the eye popping target numbers. The Browns are not the best test but again I’m keeping an open mind on the Philly offense for now. Nelson Agholar, 4/57/TD on only 5 targets, he might get a few more as he continues to produce. Huff had 3 targets but zero catches. Zac Ertz uh mak-a-my head hurts. Good job on his part, still not sure I can see a rookie QB supporting 2-3 solid lays in the passing game each week, gonna be up n down.

Alshon Jeffrey is a must start no matter what you think of Cutler and the offense. Eddie Royal scored last week but you really don’t want to have to roll him out week to week IMHO. White had 7 targets but didn’t do much with them. Langford had 17 carries plus 4 targets, nothing fancy but 60 yds and a score will work for most owners.

Final Score: Chicago 20...Philly 17

Eagles rule out Ertz

1. Bears cornerback Kyle Fuller is listed as questionable to play against the Eagles on Monday. Fuller has been limited all week with a knee injury.

This seems to be good for Wentz and the Eagles receivers.

 

[Mister CIA]

Impressive, MoP.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Thanks MOP...this is always must read for me

 

[pinkham13]

Impressive, MoP.

Woah! Is that Bowzer from Sha na na in your avi? What a trip!

 

[pack66]

As always, thanks MOP. Thoughts on which one to hold this week, Williams (WR, SD) or Barnidge?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

As always, thanks MOP. Thoughts on which one to hold this week, Williams (WR, SD) or Barnidge?

I think for one week that Travis Benjamin will see an uptick in targets. Barnidge is in my line up today in a couple places. Want to give him another week before I cut him.