wannabee Strategy Thread (3 Viewers)

[wannabee]

alright wannabee,i always appreciate your input and opinions and i know you have

some access to a crystal ball. i have LJ in a 8 team,2 keeper league,is it time

to deal him? could potentially land LT but lots of rumors that roaf is just trying

to cut out of camp? any thoughts? not sure i want to wait until a week before the

season starts to see if Big willie comes back.

scoring system: 8 pts per rushing/receiving td. 1 pt per 10 yds rushing/receivingi have received 2 offers:1) sjax/veterans pick 1.05 and 4.05 (all the top receivers

will be available at 5.) 2) LT/veterans pick 1.06 for LJ/veterans pick 2.04 and

lendale white (this deal could also be changed to swap lower picks and not

include lendale). am i jumping ship to fast? the age of the o-line was already

scaring me,wasnt too concerned when trich left but how much higher will his

value be in a keeper league? i currently have SA as a keeper and own the #1

overall pick which i'll take peyton with. thanks ahead of time..

I would still stick with LJ, especially until we are sure what is really going on with Roaf. Depending on who is available as far as RBs go, I like the SJax offer a little better than the LT offer. I would not give up LJ and White for sure.

I agree with Jeter here on LT. see LJ and LT as relatively even.On the Sjax deal, which players do you project to be available at 1.05? I know you say th etop wr2, but does this mean every wr including TO? This is the big question for me.

Who is your other keeper in addition to LJ?

I would seioursly think about the SJax deal if it could land SJax and TO.

wannabee,as of now i have SA and LJ. mbIII is my 05 rookie and lendale andVD are my 06 rookies. the LT deal,would essentially be a straight up deal w/

the LT owner and i "potentially" swapping picks (ie- me getting 1.06 for 2.04).

the sjax deal involves me giving up LJ and 2.04 for sjax/1.05 and 4.04 or 4.05.

i already have the 1.01 pick,which i'll take manning with. the owners who have

picks 1.02/1.03 and 1.04 are all desperate for rb's so will most likely go w/ the

best available rb's (ctaylor,droughns,julius and kevin jones) which will leave me

w/ a crack at "potentially" landing fitz,TO,holt,chadj,essentially a top 5 wr.

i have also made offers for portis and ronnieb. the portis offer was similiar to

the LT offer and the ronnieb offer was LJ and 3.08 for ronnieb,1.08 and 1.09

(which would give me as keepers: manning/SA/ronnieb and veteran picks:

1.01/1.08/1.09/2.04... sorry for the length...

I think I would definitely pass on the Sjax deal, just because I think there are enough good WRs than the drop from LJ to SJax is greater than that of WR1 to WR7 or 8 where you would draft with your current 2nd round pick.I think I would hold LJ unless you get a great offer and I do no think you have received that great of an offer yet. You being able to have LJ, SA, and PM each week should give you many easy wins each week and almost a shoo in for the playoffs.

I would not take less value for LJ. I, personally would only consider trading LJ for Portis or LT, depending on the deal. I definitely think LJ's value is every bit as high as LT's and considerably more than Portis.

 

[bradf35]

Hey wannabe,

  I have a couple of questions that I wanted to ask before my upcoming dynasty draft.  It is a 12 team dynasty PPR league.  Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX (RB, WR, TE).  First off I was offered the 1.05, 1.06, Eli Manning, and Chester Taylor for the 1.02 Pick.  I am leaning towards taking this offer.  See team below.

My team:

QB

Roethlisburger

Philip Rivers

RB

Larry Johnson

Willie Parker

Duce Stayley

Vernon Haynes

WR

Roy Williams

Chris Chambers

Hines Ward

Lee Evans

Charles Rogers

Chris Henry

Brandon Jones

TE

Randy McMichael

Bubba Franks

Draft Picks

1.01

1.02

1.03

Second, I am pretty sure that the owner is wanting Addai with the 1.02.  This will leave me to choose between Williams and Maroney for the 1.03, Lendale White with the 1.05 and probably Vernon Davis with 1.06.  Who do you think is the better option between Williams and Maroney?  Thanks

Brad

Brad, I would do this deal for sure. If your hunch is right as far as Addai goes, you get a #1 QB, a #2/3 RB, plus White and VD. Great deal for you.

Hey Brad, I am in agreement with Jeter. I would do that deal ASAP. That is a great deal for you. I think you are spot on with taking White and Davis, just be patient with Davis. I think it will take a year or two for him to be a viable fantasy player.

On Maroney vs Williams, I have been debating this on myself. They both are signed and are currently behind an injury-prone veteran.

I hear that most consider Williams to have more talent, but I also hear how Car may want to use a short yardage RB, too, which could limit upside.

On Maroney, I look to how well MB3 did his rookie year and am encouraged. Maroney is a bigger RB, who played in a bigger conference than Williams.

I am torn on this one and do not have a great feel either way. I will watch and read the reports and let you know as things evolve.

Thanks a lot!

 

[Biabreakable]

I have been down on Chester Taylor more than the vast majority of people. In another post, I articulated why. Here is the post copied:

Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136

I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:

20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.

Here is the game by game stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005

I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005

About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylor did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.

Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.

I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.

1st of all wannabee this is a very good thread that covers a lot of good strategy discussion and salient topics for FF in general as well as pertaining to this year. Thanks for doing this.In regards to CT here is a paste of discusion on him I posted in the SP recently addressing this same issue:

2004 was the season that Chester Taylor had the most carries so far in his career. 160 total. This is also the season where he had more games as an actual feature Rb. So it makes more sense to me to look at those games and see how well he performed than looking at 2 games against tough defenses last year.

I dont have the splits by number of carries in front of me for 2004. If you do I would be curious to know if your premise holds true then as well?

Here are games that he actualy had more than 10 carries a game:

Oct 24 vs. Buffalo (strong run defense that year) 21 carries 89 yards 4.2 avg

Oct. 31 vs. Philly 18 carries 78 yards 4.3 ypc

Nov. 21 vs. Dallas 15 carries 33 yards 2.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game but was running out the clock protecting a 20 point lead.)

Nov 28 vs. Pats 16 carries 61 yards 3.8 ypc

Dec 5 vs. Bengals 23 carries 139 yards 6.0 ypc

Dec 12 vs. Giants 25 carries 104 yards 4.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game either but had a lot of carries while the Ravens were crushing the Giants 37-14)

Except for the 2 games against Dallas and the Giants Taylor started so Jamal Lewis was not part of those games. The Denver game in 2005 was the only game that season that Taylor actualy started.

Chester Taylor 2004 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 61/275/0TD (4.5ypc)

Attempts 6-10: 41/182/0TD (4.4ypc)

Attempts 11+: 55/257/2TD, FL (4.7ypc, 1.8% FR)

Attempts 21+: 8/16/0TD (1.8ypc)

1st half: 77/345/0TD (4.5ypc)

2nd half: 88/369/2TD,, FL (4.4ypc, 1.1% FR)

So you see from the splits in 2004 where he actualy started 4 games instead of one in 2005 and had more significant carries in 2 other games that CTs ypc increased on carries 11-20 before having a steep drop from carry 21+ However it should be noted that 8 carries over 21 is a rather small sample size compared to the other splits. He seems to have done ok 5 out of 6 times in 2004 that he had more than 10 carries in a game.

Improved endurance and conditioning may be needed to see improvements on carries 21+

I think he also carries a lot of risk. My main concern is if Brad Johnson is injured I am not sure how well Taylor will do against defenses that will not have much reason to respect the passing game and can then focus most of thier attention on stoping him.

The motivation and conditioning concerns still lurk a bit I think. The game that Taylor would have started last year if he had not missed practice is somthing that still bothers me about him. However most recent information from coach Childress has for the most part debunked those issues imho.

 

[wannabee]

I have been down on Chester Taylor more than the vast majority of people.  In another post, I articulated why.  Here is the post copied:

Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136

I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:

20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.

Here is the game by game stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005

I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005

About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylor did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.

Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.

I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.

1st of all wannabee this is a very good thread that covers a lot of good strategy discussion and salient topics for FF in general as well as pertaining to this year. Thanks for doing this.In regards to CT here is a paste of discusion on him I posted in the SP recently addressing this same issue:

2004 was the season that Chester Taylor had the most carries so far in his career. 160 total. This is also the season where he had more games as an actual feature Rb. So it makes more sense to me to look at those games and see how well he performed than looking at 2 games against tough defenses last year.

I dont have the splits by number of carries in front of me for 2004. If you do I would be curious to know if your premise holds true then as well?

Here are games that he actualy had more than 10 carries a game:

Oct 24 vs. Buffalo (strong run defense that year) 21 carries 89 yards 4.2 avg

Oct. 31 vs. Philly 18 carries 78 yards 4.3 ypc

Nov. 21 vs. Dallas 15 carries 33 yards 2.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game but was running out the clock protecting a 20 point lead.)

Nov 28 vs. Pats 16 carries 61 yards 3.8 ypc

Dec 5 vs. Bengals 23 carries 139 yards 6.0 ypc

Dec 12 vs. Giants 25 carries 104 yards 4.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game either but had a lot of carries while the Ravens were crushing the Giants 37-14)

Except for the 2 games against Dallas and the Giants Taylor started so Jamal Lewis was not part of those games. The Denver game in 2005 was the only game that season that Taylor actualy started.

Chester Taylor 2004 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 61/275/0TD (4.5ypc)

Attempts 6-10: 41/182/0TD (4.4ypc)

Attempts 11+: 55/257/2TD, FL (4.7ypc, 1.8% FR)

Attempts 21+: 8/16/0TD (1.8ypc)

1st half: 77/345/0TD (4.5ypc)

2nd half: 88/369/2TD,, FL (4.4ypc, 1.1% FR)

So you see from the splits in 2004 where he actualy started 4 games instead of one in 2005 and had more significant carries in 2 other games that CTs ypc increased on carries 11-20 before having a steep drop from carry 21+ However it should be noted that 8 carries over 21 is a rather small sample size compared to the other splits. He seems to have done ok 5 out of 6 times in 2004 that he had more than 10 carries in a game.

Improved endurance and conditioning may be needed to see improvements on carries 21+

I think he also carries a lot of risk. My main concern is if Brad Johnson is injured I am not sure how well Taylor will do against defenses that will not have much reason to respect the passing game and can then focus most of thier attention on stoping him.

The motivation and conditioning concerns still lurk a bit I think. The game that Taylor would have started last year if he had not missed practice is somthing that still bothers me about him. However most recent information from coach Childress has for the most part debunked those issues imho.

thank you for the kind words. i do like your analysis. i think too many are overrating the minny offense as a whole. the backup qb is mcmahon. the wrs are either young and inexperienced (TWilliamson), out to pasture (MRob, Taylor, etc), or KRob. there is no threat and should be playing from behind A TON.Please feel free to offer analysis to any post in this thread. Your insight is always welcome.

 

[wannabee]

I plan on releasing some picks this week. It will probably be Tuesday. I hope to take a stand for or against certain players. I know some might be "out there" but I think people appreciate the arguments.

 

[majstro]

Wannabee - I enjoy your insight and wanted to sign my team up for an evaluation. I am enterring my sixth season in a 12-team dynasty league where I inherited the worst team at that time.

Below are the original and current rosters:

Original Roster---------------Current Roster

QB-Steve Beuerlein---------QB-Byron Leftwich-Draft 2003

QB-Tim Couch---------------QB-Ben Roethlisberger-Draft 2004

QB-Chad Pennington--------QB-Kurt Warner-Trade 2001

QB-Vinnie Testaverde-------QB-Chad Pennington-Inherited

QB-Danny Kanell-------------RB-Larry Johnson-Draft 2003

RB-Adrian Murrell------------RB-Willis McGahee-Draft 2003

RB-Erict Rhett-----------------RB-Reggie Bush-Draft 2006

RB-Chris Fuamatu Maafala--RB-Deshaun Foster-Draft 2002

RB-Kimble Anders------------RB-Ahman Green-Trade 2001

RB-Curtis Keaton-------------RB-TJ Duckett-Draft 2002

RB-Napoleon Kauffman------RB-Dominic Rhodes-FA 2005

WR-Amani Toomer-----------RB-Ciatrick Fason-Draft 2005

WR-Cris Carter---------------WR-Torry Holt-Trade 2001

WR-Hines Ward---------------WR-Larry Fitzgerald-Draft 2004

WR-Travis Taylor-------------WR-Lee Evans-Draft 2004

WR-Dez White----------------WR-Braylon Edwards-Draft 2005

WR-Jimmy Smith-------------WR-Ashley Lelie-Draft 2002

TE-Howard Cross-------------WR-Keary Colbert-Trade 2004

TE-Kyle Brady-----------------TE-Jeremy Shockey-Draft 2002

TE-Aaron Shea----------------K-Josh Brown-Draft 2003

K-Ryan Longwell--------------DEF-Dallas Cowboys-FA 2001

K-Todd Peterson--------------DEF-Cincinnati Bengals-FA 2005

K-John Kasay-----------------DEF-Minnesota Vikings-FA 2005

DEF-Oakland Raiders--------2006 #1.09

DEF-Minnesota Vikings-------2006 #2.09

I have made the Super Bowl two of the last three years and would like to remain competitive for many years to come. I do not want to over-manage but I also do not want to pass up opportunities to improve. With that being said, any thoughts as to what I should do?

I have been kicking around a couple of trade ideas:

Ahman Green for Brett Favre

Lee Evans and 1.09 for Roy Williams and 1.12

Dominic Rhodes and 1.09 for 1.06

Larry Johnson and Roethlisberger for Carson Palmer and Carnell Williams

2.09 for Dallas Clark

Again, I appreciate your columns and advice and am just looking for an outside opinion on what I have and what I should do with it. Thanks

 

[supermark_28]

always appreciate the info.. i know it always seems like i have a LJ trade ? for you

but got another one. i'm in a 8 team 2 veterans keeper league, i have SA and LJ

(currently) and have been offered rudij and veterans pick 6 for LJ. scoring- 8 pts

per rushing td and 1 pt per 10 yds rushing. we start 2 qb/3 rb/3 wr/1 te/k and def.

i currently have pick 1 and will most likely take peyton. i also have pick 2.04 (12th

overall). pick 6 would most likely assure me 1 of the top wr's: TO,fitz,holt,chadj,ss

etc. my concern is that the bengals rushing schedule looks brutal but the ever increasing

injuries to chris perry has intrigued me. thanks ahead of time...

 

[wannabee]

Wannabee - I enjoy your insight and wanted to sign my team up for an evaluation. I am enterring my sixth season in a 12-team dynasty league where I inherited the worst team at that time.Below are the original and current rosters:Original Roster---------------Current RosterQB-Steve Beuerlein---------QB-Byron Leftwich-Draft 2003QB-Tim Couch---------------QB-Ben Roethlisberger-Draft 2004QB-Chad Pennington--------QB-Kurt Warner-Trade 2001QB-Vinnie Testaverde-------QB-Chad Pennington-InheritedQB-Danny Kanell-------------RB-Larry Johnson-Draft 2003RB-Adrian Murrell------------RB-Willis McGahee-Draft 2003RB-Erict Rhett-----------------RB-Reggie Bush-Draft 2006RB-Chris Fuamatu Maafala--RB-Deshaun Foster-Draft 2002RB-Kimble Anders------------RB-Ahman Green-Trade 2001RB-Curtis Keaton-------------RB-TJ Duckett-Draft 2002RB-Napoleon Kauffman------RB-Dominic Rhodes-FA 2005WR-Amani Toomer-----------RB-Ciatrick Fason-Draft 2005WR-Cris Carter---------------WR-Torry Holt-Trade 2001WR-Hines Ward---------------WR-Larry Fitzgerald-Draft 2004WR-Travis Taylor-------------WR-Lee Evans-Draft 2004WR-Dez White----------------WR-Braylon Edwards-Draft 2005WR-Jimmy Smith-------------WR-Ashley Lelie-Draft 2002TE-Howard Cross-------------WR-Keary Colbert-Trade 2004TE-Kyle Brady-----------------TE-Jeremy Shockey-Draft 2002TE-Aaron Shea----------------K-Josh Brown-Draft 2003K-Ryan Longwell--------------DEF-Dallas Cowboys-FA 2001K-Todd Peterson--------------DEF-Cincinnati Bengals-FA 2005K-John Kasay-----------------DEF-Minnesota Vikings-FA 2005DEF-Oakland Raiders--------2006 #1.09DEF-Minnesota Vikings-------2006 #2.09I have made the Super Bowl two of the last three years and would like to remain competitive for many years to come. I do not want to over-manage but I also do not want to pass up opportunities to improve. With that being said, any thoughts as to what I should do?I have been kicking around a couple of trade ideas:Ahman Green for Brett FavreLee Evans and 1.09 for Roy Williams and 1.12Dominic Rhodes and 1.09 for 1.06Larry Johnson and Roethlisberger for Carson Palmer and Carnell Williams2.09 for Dallas ClarkAgain, I appreciate your columns and advice and am just looking for an outside opinion on what I have and what I should do with it. Thanks

I really like your team. The only thing I would look to do is to get younger, if cheap and possible. Because of this, I would not do the Favre trade unless it is a start 2 QB league (which I doubt with 12 teams). I like Evans more than Roy and would stay pat unless I knew one of the top RBs would be there. But, I would like the Rhodes deal just because of his limited upside. You should run far, far away from the LJ deal. Way too little in return, imo.If you do the Rhodes deal, I might look for Leinart at 1.06 to go with Warner. That would give you three strong QBs. If this does go as planned, I would look to trade Pennington because Lefty, Ben, and the AZ QBs are enough in start 1 QB leagues. If you happen to keep Rhodes and stay at 1.09, I would look for Norwood.I like your strong four WRs. Your team is very strong. In the second round, if you have a pick, I would look for Marcedes Lewis or Brandon Marshall, if available.You have turned this team around and should be proud of yourself. You have a very good team.

 

[wannabee]

always appreciate the info.. i know it always seems like i have a LJ trade ? for you but got another one. i'm in a 8 team 2 veterans keeper league, i have SA and LJ(currently) and have been offered rudij and veterans pick 6 for LJ. scoring- 8 pts per rushing td and 1 pt per 10 yds rushing. we start 2 qb/3 rb/3 wr/1 te/k and def.i currently have pick 1 and will most likely take peyton. i also have pick 2.04 (12thoverall). pick 6 would most likely assure me 1 of the top wr's: TO,fitz,holt,chadj,ssetc. my concern is that the bengals rushing schedule looks brutal but the ever increasinginjuries to chris perry has intrigued me. thanks ahead of time...

with 8 pt TDs, I would keep LJ. He should be a stud in that league.

 

[majstro]

Wannabee - I enjoy your insight and wanted to sign my team up for an evaluation. I am enterring my sixth season in a 12-team dynasty league where I inherited the worst team at that time.Below are the original and current rosters:Original Roster---------------Current RosterQB-Steve Beuerlein---------QB-Byron Leftwich-Draft 2003QB-Tim Couch---------------QB-Ben Roethlisberger-Draft 2004QB-Chad Pennington--------QB-Kurt Warner-Trade 2001QB-Vinnie Testaverde-------QB-Chad Pennington-InheritedQB-Danny Kanell-------------RB-Larry Johnson-Draft 2003RB-Adrian Murrell------------RB-Willis McGahee-Draft 2003RB-Erict Rhett-----------------RB-Reggie Bush-Draft 2006RB-Chris Fuamatu Maafala--RB-Deshaun Foster-Draft 2002RB-Kimble Anders------------RB-Ahman Green-Trade 2001RB-Curtis Keaton-------------RB-TJ Duckett-Draft 2002RB-Napoleon Kauffman------RB-Dominic Rhodes-FA 2005WR-Amani Toomer-----------RB-Ciatrick Fason-Draft 2005WR-Cris Carter---------------WR-Torry Holt-Trade 2001WR-Hines Ward---------------WR-Larry Fitzgerald-Draft 2004WR-Travis Taylor-------------WR-Lee Evans-Draft 2004WR-Dez White----------------WR-Braylon Edwards-Draft 2005WR-Jimmy Smith-------------WR-Ashley Lelie-Draft 2002TE-Howard Cross-------------WR-Keary Colbert-Trade 2004TE-Kyle Brady-----------------TE-Jeremy Shockey-Draft 2002TE-Aaron Shea----------------K-Josh Brown-Draft 2003K-Ryan Longwell--------------DEF-Dallas Cowboys-FA 2001K-Todd Peterson--------------DEF-Cincinnati Bengals-FA 2005K-John Kasay-----------------DEF-Minnesota Vikings-FA 2005DEF-Oakland Raiders--------2006 #1.09DEF-Minnesota Vikings-------2006 #2.09I have made the Super Bowl two of the last three years and would like to remain competitive for many years to come. I do not want to over-manage but I also do not want to pass up opportunities to improve. With that being said, any thoughts as to what I should do?I have been kicking around a couple of trade ideas:Ahman Green for Brett FavreLee Evans and 1.09 for Roy Williams and 1.12Dominic Rhodes and 1.09 for 1.06Larry Johnson and Roethlisberger for Carson Palmer and Carnell Williams2.09 for Dallas ClarkAgain, I appreciate your columns and advice and am just looking for an outside opinion on what I have and what I should do with it. Thanks

I really like your team. The only thing I would look to do is to get younger, if cheap and possible. Because of this, I would not do the Favre trade unless it is a start 2 QB league (which I doubt with 12 teams). I like Evans more than Roy and would stay pat unless I knew one of the top RBs would be there. But, I would like the Rhodes deal just because of his limited upside. You should run far, far away from the LJ deal. Way too little in return, imo.If you do the Rhodes deal, I might look for Leinart at 1.06 to go with Warner. That would give you three strong QBs. If this does go as planned, I would look to trade Pennington because Lefty, Ben, and the AZ QBs are enough in start 1 QB leagues. If you happen to keep Rhodes and stay at 1.09, I would look for Norwood.I like your strong four WRs. Your team is very strong. In the second round, if you have a pick, I would look for Marcedes Lewis or Brandon Marshall, if available.You have turned this team around and should be proud of yourself. You have a very good team.

Thank you very much for the feedback. It has been an uphill battle making this team competitive and I do not want to fall off of the mountain any faster than I have to. Finding good dynasty information is really difficult. It seems as if no one focusses on dynasty projections and as far as what information is available, it is basically the redraft cheatsheet with players ages next to their names and slight changes to the rankings. I guess that is why I lean on this forum so much.As for your advice, I agree with the Larry Johnson trade assessment. I am growing too impatient at the quarterback position when I probably shouldn't be. I am hopeful that Warner can stay healthy and Leftwich can play to his potential. I still like Leftwich as a top-10 dynasty quarterback. I could be wrong, but the kid has talent. He just needs some receivers that can hang on to the ball.You read my mind on the Rhodes deal to move up and get Leinert. That would be a perfect situation. I just need running backs to go in the top five picks. If that happens, this trade goes through and I get Leinert. If I stay at nine, I will likely have my choice between Vernon Davis and Jay Cutler. The first eight picks are almost guaranteed to be the top five backs, Leinert, Young and Norwood.Ironically, Mercedes Lewis is who I have targeted for the second round. If he is not available, I will target Hilton, Pope, Klopfenstein or Scheffler in the fourth round. I might be able to get Marshall in the second.For the first four years of this league, I traded veterans for draft picks. For example, Amani Toomer became Larry Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald while Tommy Maddox became Byron Leftwich and Lee Evans. It is a tough transition to make from building for the future to trying to win now. I guess I have a draft pick addiction. Anyhow, thank you again for the assessment and keep up the good work.

 

[wannabee]

Hello everyone. I apologize for not having anything new out this week. For a few reasons, this week has been especially taxing. I am hoping to get some stuff out Friday or Saturday.

Thank you for your patience.

 

[wannabee]

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

 

[Reagan]

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

Good post and ideas. We just started PPR this year so I'm unsure how the guys will draft this time. I pick 3 in a 10 team redraft. 3, 18, 23, 38, etc. In our league, I expect Gates to be gone in the 20s (3rd round). Do you think Foster will be around at the 43rd pick (5th) and Williams to be around at the 58th pick (6th)? I see Williams being there, but I expect Fostre to be gone in the 4th round.

 

[wannabee]

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

Good post and ideas. We just started PPR this year so I'm unsure how the guys will draft this time. I pick 3 in a 10 team redraft. 3, 18, 23, 38, etc. In our league, I expect Gates to be gone in the 20s (3rd round). Do you think Foster will be around at the 43rd pick (5th) and Williams to be around at the 58th pick (6th)? I see Williams being there, but I expect Fostre to be gone in the 4th round.

A couple of things. PPR should make the WRs worth more and the RBs worth less. This is great for this strategy. Gates is a stud in PPR leagues. Only 3 wrs have outscored him in PPR each of the last two years. He gives you a great advantage each week. I would probably take Gates in 2nd and look for a WR in round 3.On Foster, I am not a fan. IWhen I look at Foster's 2005 numbers, I am not impressed and think you can do better. In the follow up post to this one, I will probably list DWilliams as one of "upside" RBs to take without taking the other back (Foster) as well as Marion Barber, etc.

 

[Reagan]

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

Good post and ideas. We just started PPR this year so I'm unsure how the guys will draft this time. I pick 3 in a 10 team redraft. 3, 18, 23, 38, etc. In our league, I expect Gates to be gone in the 20s (3rd round). Do you think Foster will be around at the 43rd pick (5th) and Williams to be around at the 58th pick (6th)? I see Williams being there, but I expect Fostre to be gone in the 4th round.

A couple of things. PPR should make the WRs worth more and the RBs worth less. This is great for this strategy. Gates is a stud in PPR leagues. Only 3 wrs have outscored him in PPR each of the last two years. He gives you a great advantage each week. I would probably take Gates in 2nd and look for a WR in round 3.On Foster, I am not a fan. IWhen I look at Foster's 2005 numbers, I am not impressed and think you can do better. In the follow up post to this one, I will probably list DWilliams as one of "upside" RBs to take without taking the other back (Foster) as well as Marion Barber, etc.

wannabee, there is an outside chance that Ronnie Brown is there for me at #18. I modeled one expected draft (who I thought would be available) and with SA at 1, Brown at 2, Harrison at 3, then say Djax 4, then Driver 5....stout team. He may not be there, but if he were what would you think? To me, Brown is slightly risky, but has top 10 RB potential sitting there at #18. Chances are, he'll be gone and I'll adopt the RB/WR/WR path. Thoughts?

 

[wannabee]

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

Good post and ideas. We just started PPR this year so I'm unsure how the guys will draft this time. I pick 3 in a 10 team redraft. 3, 18, 23, 38, etc. In our league, I expect Gates to be gone in the 20s (3rd round). Do you think Foster will be around at the 43rd pick (5th) and Williams to be around at the 58th pick (6th)? I see Williams being there, but I expect Fostre to be gone in the 4th round.

A couple of things. PPR should make the WRs worth more and the RBs worth less. This is great for this strategy. Gates is a stud in PPR leagues. Only 3 wrs have outscored him in PPR each of the last two years. He gives you a great advantage each week. I would probably take Gates in 2nd and look for a WR in round 3.On Foster, I am not a fan. IWhen I look at Foster's 2005 numbers, I am not impressed and think you can do better. In the follow up post to this one, I will probably list DWilliams as one of "upside" RBs to take without taking the other back (Foster) as well as Marion Barber, etc.

wannabee, there is an outside chance that Ronnie Brown is there for me at #18. I modeled one expected draft (who I thought would be available) and with SA at 1, Brown at 2, Harrison at 3, then say Djax 4, then Driver 5....stout team. He may not be there, but if he were what would you think? To me, Brown is slightly risky, but has top 10 RB potential sitting there at #18. Chances are, he'll be gone and I'll adopt the RB/WR/WR path. Thoughts?

I see 12 or 13 RBs that are worthy of a 2nd round pick, and Brown is definitely among them. Take Brown if he is there.

 

[Biabreakable]

competitor just offered to trade me Domanic Davis and Aaron Rodgers for Lawrence Maroney.

Dynasty league.

DD has a hurt knee. My take so far has been DD will still be the man this year but I wonder about his long term prospects as injuries continue to plauge him. DD has had an awful lot of carries + catches over the past 3 years on a poor team causing defenses to really focus on DD. This may shorten DDs career.

Just interested in peoples opinions about this deal.

I think it is really in my favor if DD remains the starter and performs at the same level he has in previous years. Even if his career only lasts 2 or 3 more years at this level.

Maroney is not likely to do as well as DD in 2006. But has potential to be a very good Rb on a very good team for a very long time.

I am competing for a title this year. Maroney is not really part of that plan for 2006.

My Rbs:

LT

Caddy

Chester Taylor

Deangelo Williams

Lawrence Maroney > would be Domanic Davis if I take the deal.

Cedric Houston

Michael Turner

Ciatrick Fason

Dee Brown

If DD proves healthy I see him as better trade bait than Maroney once the season begins also.

Or I can just stick with what I have and wait for Maroney to develop.

What say you?

 

[wannabee]

competitor just offered to trade me Domanic Davis and Aaron Rodgers for Lawrence Maroney.

Dynasty league.

DD has a hurt knee. My take so far has been DD will still be the man this year but I wonder about his long term prospects as injuries continue to plauge him. DD has had an awful lot of carries + catches over the past 3 years on a poor team causing defenses to really focus on DD. This may shorten DDs career.

Just interested in peoples opinions about this deal.

I think it is really in my favor if DD remains the starter and performs at the same level he has in previous years. Even if his career only lasts 2 or 3 more years at this level.

Maroney is not likely to do as well as DD in 2006. But has potential to be a very good Rb on a very good team for a very long time.

I am competing for a title this year. Maroney is not really part of that plan for 2006.

My Rbs:

LT

Caddy

Chester Taylor

Deangelo Williams

Lawrence Maroney > would be Domanic Davis if I take the deal.

Cedric Houston

Michael Turner

Ciatrick Fason

Dee Brown

If DD proves healthy I see him as better trade bait than Maroney once the season begins also.

Or I can just stick with what I have and wait for Maroney to develop.

What say you?

If it is not a PPR league, this is easy and go with Maroney. I would say Maroney anyway. Here is why:I cannot see davis playing/starting/finishing 10 games this year.

If Davis nor Morency (whom I like) does nto really excel, I see a rb in the HIGH first round for the Texans in 2007 (read:APeterson since he is from Texas)

I think Maroney's value will be the highest in the next 12 months

If you want a solid RB3/4, I might try to do the deal the other way and see how cheaply I can get Dillon to pair with Maroney and lock up the NE RBs.

 

[wannabee]

I wanted to add a thought on DRAFT PICK TRADES:

I know this may seem simple to most of you, but I see many, many fantasy owners not understand how to maximixe the picks in draft pick trades. Here is one helpful tip:

When most people make draft pick trades in keeper or redraft leagues, where they trade up, they miss out on value.

The key to gaining some value in most deals is not the front end of the deal, but rather the back end of it. Most draft pick trades are essentially 2 for 1 trades - but the picks must be even so we all assume it is a last round pick for the other (4th) pick. The savvy trader, when offering the deal, moves that late pick up 2-3 rounds. Most times the other owner either does not realize or does not care at the time. But, I can tell you from experience that you do notice when the draft is going on. Those couple of rounds gained can be huge. Even if it is only for drafting a kicker or defense, you get a much better kicker or defense because you planned ahead.

 

[wannabee]

This is a follow up to yesterday's post on how to "sluff RB2" position. I hope to detail opportunities and situations to implement this strategy. First, let's start with some assumptions:

a. This strategy works best with a high first round pick

b. Standard scoring and starting rules

c. Redraft league

As shown in the first part of this article (post 363), the owner takes a star RB in first round and tries to accumulate top players at other positions, while foregoing the drafting of a second RB for a while. The theory is that if we can get a star RB1 in round one, it will give us a distinct advantage at that position. Most owners who pick later in round one will pick RB/RB with their first and second round picks. They are at a big disadvantage at RB1 and take the second RB to try to gain an advantage at the RB2 position. If we pick a RB in round two, given the risky choices (KJones, JJones, FWP), we are playing into their hands. Why? Because LJ and FWP is not that much better than Brown/Jordan. But, the "sluffing of RB2" will give us top players at other positions while scoring similar points at RB2 position. The article in post 363 of this thread shows a practical application of how to implement the strategy utilizing ADP. Using the ADP info, we had a top 2 RB as RB1, two top 10 WRs at WR1 and WR2, and a top 2 TE, then we added Addai and Rhodes in rounds 5 and 6 to lock up Rb2. I think that is a great start to the draft.

Now the question becomes: If I take WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and maybe the 4th round, too, which RBs should I target and what mix should I look for?

To make this strategy go, we have to only consider:

a. Teams that should have a defined starter and backup role

b. Teams without a history or hint of RBBC

c. RBs from same team whose ADP makes it doable to draft both

d. RBs from same team who can produce numbers on par with those we could have drafted in 2nd round (KJones, JJones, and FWP)

I would like to note that this is different than handcuffing. Handcuffing refers to taking your star RB's backup as insurance. But, this "sluffing RB2" strategy is one that should produce very good RB2/3 numbers while allowing our team to stack up on studs at other positions, thus gaining advantage at those positions. Since we have two stud WRs, and a stud TE, we can afford to spend more early (and overall) picks on RBs and fewer on WR/TE since we will not need many players of either position on the bench. With these extra roster positions for RBs, we will look for a good mix of RB combos from the same team and high reward RBs.

So, here are all of the teams and whether they are attractive for this strategy:

Bal - ruled out because Lewis' ADP is too high. But, Mike Anderson is attractive for a bench RB

Buf - ruled out because Willis' ADP is too high.

Cin - ruled out because Rudi's ADP is too high. But, Perry is attractive for a bench RB

Cle - ruled out because Droughns' ADP is too high.

Den - could be doable with Dayne and Bell.

Hou - ruled out because Davis' ADP is too high. But, Morency is attractive for a bench RB

Ind - could be doable with Addai and Rhodes

Jax - could be doable with FTaylor and GJones

KC - ruled out because LJ's ADP is too high.

Mia - ruled out because Brown's ADP is too high

NE - could be doable with Dillon and Maroney

NYJ - ruled out because there is nothing known on who to draft. But, Houston is attractive for a bench RB

Oak - ruled out because of Jordan's ADP

Pit - ruled out because of FWP's ADP.

SD - ruled out because of LT's ADP. But, Turner is attractive for a bench RB

Ten - could be doable with White and CBrown

Ari - ruled out because of Edge's ADP

Atl - ruled out because of Dunn's ADP. But, Norwood and Duckett are attractive for bench RBs

Car - ruled out because of RBBC threat. But, DWilliams is attractive for a bench RB

Chi - ruled out because of RBBC threat and ADP.

Dal - ruled out because of JJones' ADP. But, MBarber is attractive for a bench RB

Det - ruled out because of KJones ADP. But, Calhoun is attractive for a bench RB

GB - could be doable with AGreen and Gado

Min - ruled out because of Taylor's ADP

NO - ruled out because of RBBC and ADP

NYG - ruled out because of Tiki's ADP

Phi - ruled out because of Westbrook's ADP

Sea - ruled out because of Alexander's ADP. But, Morris is attractive for a bench RB

SF - could be doable with Gore and Barlow

StL - ruled out because of SJackson's ADP

TB - ruled out because of Caddy's ADP

Was - ruled out because of Portis' ADP

This leaves us with the following situations for RB combos to fill RB2:

Denver -> Bell/Dayne

Indy -> Addai/Rhodes

Jax -> FTaylor/GJones

NE -> Dillon/Maroney

Tenn -> White/CBrown

GB -> Green/Gado

SF -> Gore/Barlow

And these are the bench (high ceiling) RBs identified:

Mike Anderson

Chris Perry

Vernand Morency

Cedric Houston

Michael Turner

Jerrious Norwood

TJ Duckett

DeAngelo Williams

Marion Barber

Brian Calhoun

Maurice Morris

Each of these RBs, and sets of RBs, has different ADPs. If we "sluff the RB2" position, we would LOVE to have two same team combos and 3+ more high ceiling RBs. If we ended up with LJ, Addai/Rhodes, Green/Gado, MBarber, Mike Anderson, and Calhoun, we would be very happy with our RBs. These RBs would easily outproduce, imo, the RBs availble in 2nd round with much less risk. Plus, we have some RBs on the bench where we might hit a home run. Plus, remember, this strategy allowed us to take studs at WR1, WR2, and TE as well as RB1.

Using this strategy, I would expect a team that looks like:

QB: Plummer, Kitna

RB: LJ, Rhodes/Addai, Green/Gado, MBarber, Mike Anderson, Calhoun

WR: Harrison, Chambers, Coles, Wilford, Toomer

TE: Shockey, Wiggins

I think this team would be very strong in a 12 team league.

Thoughts?

 

[Biabreakable]

wannabee

The sluff Rb 2 strategy is a good one. I have used it many times in the past and had great success with it by maximizing the players I draft when going against largely SRB or draft 2RB theories.

It works in part because if the majority of owners take Rbs in round 2 and some even in 3 they are not focusing on the Rb position much in rounds 3-8. So you can then take Rb targets from the later rounds while they are filling other positions.

However this year more than any other I have seen owners appear to be favoring this strat you call sluff Rb 2. Right now there is a glut of viable Rbs in the league. More so than I recall seeing before. Many of the older guard still has not moved on yet (Marshall Faulk did). And many talented rookie Rbs have entered the league the past 2 seasons also coinciding with previous backups now emerging. There are a lot of question marks this year across the board about which Rbs will emerge.

This situation also is happening in the aftershock of enforcement of the 5 yard chuck rule which has caused Wrs and Tes to increase thier prodctivity. Defenses have been forced to shift more towards Dbs and scemes that can tackle recievers down field instead of being able to stifle them with tight coverage. Scoring for recievers and Tes is up across the board and FF owners see that and react by valuing them more.

You have to watch the flow of the draft.

If you draft early (top 4) and take a top Rb then many owners take Wrs in round 2 before it comes back to you then you must recognise that they will be targeting Rbs in rounds 3-6 also. This disrupts your ability to effectivly execute this strat.

I think it is very difficult to actualy get the Rb pairs available in this years draft unless your picking very close to the ends. I often see drafts where these pairs get taken consequtivly by different teams or close to that. The ADP does not show this as much as I have seen it happen. So getting both of a pair is not as reliable as it might seem and it also diminishes your flexibility to take other players that may fall to you that present greater value.

I think it is an effective strategy but there is more than one way to skin a cat. I like to zig when others zag. I see this strat as being a trend right now and if I am drafting early and see Wrs come off the board in round 2 then I will go against the grain and take Rb every time. Possibly in round 3 also if a good Rb is still there.

To me the key to making a sluff Rb strat work is identifying specificly what Rbs are falling that will out perform thier ADP.

Canidates I have seen most commonly this year I believe are Lendale White Gado Rhodes Dillon Greg Jones Barlow and Houston. Ahman Green is a possible but Gado is still being had at a better value right now. There are probobly others but these have been the late guys I have most confidence in and have been targeting.

 

[wannabee]

wannabeeThe sluff Rb 2 strategy is a good one. I have used it many times in the past and had great success with it by maximizing the players I draft when going against largely SRB or draft 2RB theories.It works in part because if the majority of owners take Rbs in round 2 and some even in 3 they are not focusing on the Rb position much in rounds 3-8. So you can then take Rb targets from the later rounds while they are filling other positions.However this year more than any other I have seen owners appear to be favoring this strat you call sluff Rb 2. Right now there is a glut of viable Rbs in the league. More so than I recall seeing before. Many of the older guard still has not moved on yet (Marshall Faulk did). And many talented rookie Rbs have entered the league the past 2 seasons also coinciding with previous backups now emerging. There are a lot of question marks this year across the board about which Rbs will emerge.This situation also is happening in the aftershock of enforcement of the 5 yard chuck rule which has caused Wrs and Tes to increase thier prodctivity. Defenses have been forced to shift more towards Dbs and scemes that can tackle recievers down field instead of being able to stifle them with tight coverage. Scoring for recievers and Tes is up across the board and FF owners see that and react by valuing them more.You have to watch the flow of the draft. If you draft early (top 4) and take a top Rb then many owners take Wrs in round 2 before it comes back to you then you must recognise that they will be targeting Rbs in rounds 3-6 also. This disrupts your ability to effectivly execute this strat.I think it is very difficult to actualy get the Rb pairs available in this years draft unless your picking very close to the ends. I often see drafts where these pairs get taken consequtivly by different teams or close to that. The ADP does not show this as much as I have seen it happen. So getting both of a pair is not as reliable as it might seem and it also diminishes your flexibility to take other players that may fall to you that present greater value.I think it is an effective strategy but there is more than one way to skin a cat. I like to zig when others zag. I see this strat as being a trend right now and if I am drafting early and see Wrs come off the board in round 2 then I will go against the grain and take Rb every time. Possibly in round 3 also if a good Rb is still there.To me the key to making a sluff Rb strat work is identifying specificly what Rbs are falling that will out perform thier ADP.Canidates I have seen most commonly this year I believe are Lendale White Gado Rhodes Dillon Greg Jones Barlow and Houston. Ahman Green is a possible but Gado is still being had at a better value right now. There are probobly others but these have been the late guys I have most confidence in and have been targeting.

thanks, for the insight. Most of the pairs I posted were attractive because their ADPs are a couple of rounds apart. Dillon/Maroney and Bell/Dayne are much more difficult than Gado/Green or Taylor/GJones or even White/Brown. This is why you can take two RB combos. But, in the end, this year, I think RB2 is the easiest position to run a committee approach. In the drafts I have been in, most are trying to do what you are wanting - take one of a combo for several RBs and take chances. Since I am more of a risk averse guy, I prefer to have the combo which, by its nature, offers insulation from different issues. I do think that this strategy ONLY works if you have a top 4 or 5 pick in the first round as I stated in the first post of the article.

 

[wannabee]

To follow up on posts 363 and 371, one of the appeals for getting RB combos is that insulates the RB2 position from injuries. Since we have both RBs from the same team means that if one is injured, you still have the starter. Having two RB combos with different bye weeks means that we are insulated from injuries and bye week issues. The bench RBs with upside give us the possibility to hit a home run. So, using this strategy, we are insured against injury and bye week, plus have room for upside. This is ideal.

 

[Biabreakable]

PPR should make the WRs worth more and the RBs worth less.

It should but it really doesen't if Rbs get the PPR.It changes which Rbs are more valuable. And the Rbs who catch a decent amount of passes actualy increase value compared to the Wrs.The Rbs who don't fall below the better Wrs.I dont like PPR on principle. To me it is a double dipping scoring system. You allready are getting points for the yards your player gains on a catch. Then giving a bonus for the catch itself. If scoring for TDs stays at 6 then 3 receptions (pretty common) is worth 50% of a player scoring a TD. Players who catch a lot of passes don't even need TDs to be good players in such a system.Just wanted to point out the value of pass catching Rbs in such a system though lest anyone be confsed. Because players like Tiki who get huge yards TDs and catches become even better in such a system and the Wrs are not catching up to them.Players like Dillon are less valuable even though they get high TDs.

 

[Hawkeyeskin]

Wannabee,

There is some amazing information you are giving out in this thread! Hopefully everyone appreciates all the time and effort you put into these posts. It is very admirable of you! Keep up the good work my friend!

 

[wannabee]

PPR should make the WRs worth more and the RBs worth less.

It should but it really doesen't if Rbs get the PPR.It changes which Rbs are more valuable. And the Rbs who catch a decent amount of passes actualy increase value compared to the Wrs.

The Rbs who don't fall below the better Wrs.

I dont like PPR on principle. To me it is a double dipping scoring system. You allready are getting points for the yards your player gains on a catch. Then giving a bonus for the catch itself. If scoring for TDs stays at 6 then 3 receptions (pretty common) is worth 50% of a player scoring a TD. Players who catch a lot of passes don't even need TDs to be good players in such a system.

Just wanted to point out the value of pass catching Rbs in such a system though lest anyone be confsed. Because players like Tiki who get huge yards TDs and catches become even better in such a system and the Wrs are not catching up to them.

Players like Dillon are less valuable even though they get high TDs.

the reason I said that is because last year, there were 3 WRs in top 10 overall in PPR. Few other scoring systems allow the WRs to be in top 10. In fact, in PPR, 6 WRs made the top 15 overall. In my non-PPR leagues, it is usually all RBs, less a QB or two, in top 10.http://insidethestats.com/index.php?pos=6&...amp;statstype=1

 

[wannabee]

Wannabee, There is some amazing information you are giving out in this thread! Hopefully everyone appreciates all the time and effort you put into these posts. It is very admirable of you! Keep up the good work my friend!

thank you for the kind words

 

[wannabee]

Are there any topics you want to see addressed this week?

I am still processing out a few posts where I take a stand for/against certain players.

Also looking at something for larger redraft leagues.

Anything else?

 

[wannabee]

I will be starting a series of posts where I take a stand for or against certain players. Some will have rationale, some will be more of a gut feel and describe why. I will try to do a couple a day for a while. Some will be value-driven, some will be talent, and some might be opportunity.

I think many will be surprised by some of the posts, and I hope so - to spur thought and discussion, if nothing else. I hope to hit on 60-75% of these. The success will be how they perform compared to their ADP.

Please offer feedback if agree or disagree.

 

[wannabee]

I will start with Terrell Owens.

I will be happy with Owens on my team. I see this year as one where no WR is the gimme as the WR1 and TO has a GREAT shot at being the top WR at the end of the season. In most years, the top WR or two is known (like Rice, TO, or even Harrison of a few years past).

But, for reasons discussed in future "Taking a Stand" posts, I like TOI a lot this year compared to other top WRs. Also, TO has shown to cause disruptions in his second year, not first with the team. I plan on taking advantage of all of the negative publicity, especially during last night's HoF game, and grab TO. His ADP is the third WR taken, but I think he will be the top WR at the end of the season.

 

[wannabee]

Following the same theme, I am "Taking a Stand" against Fitzgerald. Reasoning:

a. I see Warner injured at some point in the season, and without Leinart in camp and up to speed, Navarre is the QB. For fantasy purposes, he is no McCown. Also, if/when Warner goes down, I see (perish the thought) Edge getting more action on ground and short passes.

b. He is being drafted as a top 5 WR this year. Why? Because last year the Cardinals threw the ball a ton. They threw it 670 times and only ran it 360 times. Even a change of 10% going from the pass to run should make Fitzgerald underperform this ADP

c. For value reasons, I prefer Boldin 5-8 picks later than Fitz.

 

[wannabee]

I am "Taking a Stand" against Plax and for Toomer this year because of value.

Let's look at ADP:

Plax -> WR14 and 40th overall

Toomer -> WR52 and 166 overall

Last year's production:

Plax -> 76/1214/7

Toomer -> 60/684/7

Now, that looks close, and TDs are unpredictable, are these stats normal for these WRs?

Burress

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2000 pit | 11 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 23 273 11.9 0 |

| 2001 pit | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 66 1008 15.3 6 |

| 2002 pit | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 78 1325 17.0 7 |

| 2003 pit | 16 | 1 -7 -7.0 0 | 60 860 14.3 4 |

| 2004 pit | 11 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 35 698 19.9 5 |

| 2005 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 76 1214 16.0 7 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 86 | 1 -7 -7.0 0 | 338 5378 15.9 29

Toomer

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1996 nyg | 7 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 1 12 12.0 0 |

| 1997 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 16 263 16.4 1 |

| 1998 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 27 360 13.3 5 |

| 1999 nyg | 16 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 79 1183 15.0 6 |

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 5 91 18.2 1 | 78 1094 14.0 7 |

| 2001 nyg | 16 | 3 8 2.7 0 | 72 1054 14.6 5 |

| 2002 nyg | 16 | 1 2 2.0 0 | 82 1343 16.4 8 |

| 2003 nyg | 16 | 1 5 5.0 0 | 63 1057 16.8 5 |

| 2004 nyg | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 51 747 14.6 0 |

| 2005 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 60 684 11.4 7 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 150 | 11 110 10.0 1 | 529 7797 14.7 44

Another thing that seems very odd is the targets each received last year. Plax had 166 targets and Toomer had 109. It seems to me that Toomer did much better with his targets.

Yes, Toomer had a high number of TDs, but he also had a reduction in yards. In fact, the fewest receiving yards since 1998. While Plax seems to have upside but also last year was a very good year for him.

I think it is very difficult to guess which WR will have the best year. Given this, I will take Toomer. I expect Eli's numbers to progress off of last year's, thus giving both WRs a potential bump from last year.

And, to top it off, Toomer finished the season strong. It took he and Eli a while to get going, but the last two monts of the season were money for Toomer. Here are the stats:

NOVEMBER GAMES # 4 21 catches, 217 yds, 3 TDs

DECEMBER GAMES # 5 18 catches, 216 yds, 3 TDs

He averaged 4.3 catches, 48 yds, and .67 TDs per game

So, my advice is to skip on taking Plax in the 4th round and take Toomer much later.

 

[Detroit Gets 6 Wins]

Next question...

In our league we get to keep 2 players. You lose the draft spot where you drafted them in the previous year. Once you keep a player and you want to keep him again the draft spot is cut in half (example: I drafted L. Jordan in the 13th round in 2004, last year I kept him for my 13th pick, this year he's my 7th rnd pick). Anyways, My keepers this year are L. Jordan (7th Rnd) and Larry Johnson (9th Rnd). I have the first overall pick this year too. Rudy Johnson and Brian Westbrook should be available. With my league setting (see below and it's a 10 team league), which would you take or would you take a receiver? S. Smith and M. Harrison are the only for sure left, but possibly Boldin, Moss, TO, and C. Johnson.

Thanks in advance!

 

[wannabee]

I am "Taking a Stand" against Caddy Williams this year. I have been down on Caddy for some time. I think I know why (even though some might disagree). He is the type of RB that needs tons of carries to get in a groove, but it is those high number of carries that get him nocked up.

Does Caddy have talent? Sure, he is very talented. But, his ADP is RB10 and 10th player overall. That is too high of a price for a player that carries the risk Caddy does. Earlier in this thread, I detailied why I think Caddy is overrated (along with RBrown to a lesser extent) going into his second year in the NFL.

Also, one stats has stayed with me as I have thought about Caddy's prospects for 2006 (courtesy of David Yudkin):

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=241681&hl= post 7, 15

Many think that Caddy had a great rookie season. Here is the above stat ran only for rookies (also per David Yudkin):

Williams ranked 20th out of 21 backs with 290 carries as a rookie--behind Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Bobby Humphrey, and Rashaan Salaam and ahead of only John Stephens.

Running the numbers for rookies without consideration for workload, Williams campaign ranked as the 62nd best season for a rookie RB since 1960.

Also, Caddy's schedule is very difficult this year.

I will let someone else take the risk on Caddy in the first round.

 

[wannabee]

Next question...In our league we get to keep 2 players. You lose the draft spot where you drafted them in the previous year. Once you keep a player and you want to keep him again the draft spot is cut in half (example: I drafted L. Jordan in the 13th round in 2004, last year I kept him for my 13th pick, this year he's my 7th rnd pick). Anyways, My keepers this year are L. Jordan (7th Rnd) and Larry Johnson (9th Rnd). I have the first overall pick this year too. Rudy Johnson and Brian Westbrook should be available. With my league setting (see below and it's a 10 team league), which would you take or would you take a receiver? S. Smith and M. Harrison are the only for sure left, but possibly Boldin, Moss, TO, and C. Johnson.Thanks in advance!

Since it is a first round pick, I assume you will not keep next year. The appeal of having three strong RBs is strong. I would order the choices like:WestbrookTOwensSmithHarrisonRudi

 

[wannabee]

As the redraft season is ramping up, I am thinking about my strategies. I do not know if anyone cares, or not, but here is one of the conclusions I am coming to :

After QB3 (PManning, Brady, Palmer), there are several QBs grouped together so I would avoid taking QB4 in round 4/5, when you can get QB8-9 a round or two later. Let's look at the QBs, in no order, starting at QB4:

Eli Manning

McNabb

Hasselbeck

Bulger

Culpepper

Bledsoe

I would find it difficult to distinguish who the better fantasy option for 2006 will be, so might as well get another solid player, or two, and wait on QB a little longer.

In addition, the next level of QBs do not seem to be "that" big of dropoff from the ones listed above (still in no order) if you miss out:

Green

Vick

Plummer

Delhomme

Brees

Favre

Brooks

And, even further:

Warner (injury concerns, but great WRs)

Leftwich (injury concerns)

McNair

Rivers

Big Ben

Simms

So, my opinion is that if you miss out on the first three QBs, I think you should wait a couple of rounds (into the 5/6th rounds at least) and grab any of the top 9 which are all about equal.

If you miss out on those, I submit that you can grab two of the next grouping, play matchups, and do well at QB even though you waited a long time filling QB while filling other team needs.

 

[Buckna]

Got an initial draft strategy question. Was offered this in a 12 team, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 flex RB/WR/TE, .5 ppr for RB & 1ppr for WR/TE:

I give 1.02 & my 23rd rounder

for

2.10 & 3.03

Pick value calculator says the trade is in my favor, but I'm not sure I trust the downgrade. I'm essentially trading all the way back to the end of the 2nd and picking up an extra early 3rd. I'd be resigned to likely picking rookie RB's and any top WR's that fall and packing it in the first season if I took this.

Guess-timating my team before:

LT

CTaylor

Moss

My team after:

Maroney

CTaylor

Moss

Wayne

 

[wannabee]

Got an initial draft strategy question. Was offered this in a 12 team, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 flex RB/WR/TE, .5 ppr for RB & 1ppr for WR/TE:I give 1.02 & my 23rd rounderfor2.10 & 3.03Pick value calculator says the trade is in my favor, but I'm not sure I trust the downgrade. I'm essentially trading all the way back to the end of the 2nd and picking up an extra early 3rd. I'd be resigned to likely picking rookie RB's and any top WR's that fall and packing it in the first season if I took this.Guess-timating my team before:LTCTaylorMossMy team after:MaroneyCTaylorMossWayne

I, personally would very much prefer having LT (a stud RB) versus Maroney and Wayne. The reasoning is that I feel you can get WRs to come close to Wayne up until the 8th round. But, the dropoff from LT to Maroney is huge.I think initial dynasty drafts are all about acquiring young studs, and filling in the blanks with veterans.But, to be honest, it is not even close, imo. To give an example, I paid a 4th to move from 1.09 to 1.03. Then, I paid a 5th to move from 2.10 to 2.03. I ended up with 1.03, 2.03 and 3.09 then 1 6ht, a 7th (2) 8ths, etc. Why? Because, imo, the dropoff in talent is around pick 20. The reason I am against the trade is how far the downgrade is. Further, in that same league, I rejected an offer of 1.03 *Alexander) for 2.11, 3.02, 5.02 and 2007 1st rounder. So, my "advice" follows my actions in that draft - and it is a PPR.

 

[wannabee]

I know this sounds obvious, but for drafts in the next week or so (or until otherwise proven wrong), I am "Taking a Stand" against Domanick Davis.

Davis has an ADP of 18 or pick 2.6. That is way too high for a guy still battling knee issues and swelling of the knee. I prefer to let someone else to waste an early pick on Davise while I use two picks late on Antwoin Smith and Vernand Morency. Last year, while Davis was injured, Morency and Wells had 5 good fantasy games.

I do not care how far Davis falls in your draft, let someone else take him.

 

[wannabee]

Another WR I am "Taking a Stand" for is Randy Moss, purely for fantasy football. How can a WR as talented as Moss be WR6 off the board and such a steal at pick 21? That is amazing to me.

I see the QB switch from Collins to Brooks as uneventful. Same with the coaching change. What I do find interesting is, with the Porter "injury"/holdout how many more looks Moss will get. I fully expect the Raiders to have difficulty running the ball due to poor OLine play and have to throw it a ton.

A healthy Moss, which is what he is this year, is definitely a top 4 WR. As I stated in the TO "Taking a Stand", I believe that a few of the top ranked WRs are ranked so only because there is not a dominant WR so they are drafted high by default.

 

[wannabee]

Another situation in which I am "Taking a Stand":

Wash WR2/3 -> Lloyd and ARE. After reading Dr. Drinen's article "who throws it where", it became apparent to me how few times a WR other than Santana Moss was targetted in 2005. To illustrate this point (and I realize that there were injuries), the Redskin WR pass targets in 2005 broken down:

San Moss 134 pass targets

David Patten 53

James Thrash 30

Taylor Jacobs 25

Jimmy Farris 2

Antonio Brown 1

Chris Cooley 103

Clinton Portis 41

Yes, most may look at look at Lloyd and ARE as upgrades, but will they see enough targets to justify ADP? Let's remember that Portis is the first option on offense, Moss second, and Cooley third. So, these WRs are 4th option at best.

Lloyd ->WR50 and 153 overall

ARE -> WR57 and 184 overall

I prefer Toomer to both at roughly the same ADP (WR52 and 166 overall).

 

[wannabee]

I would be happy to run a mock draft through 6-8 rounds for anyone, if you wish. Please let which picks you have, the scoring, the starting requirements, etc

 

[Reagan]

I would be happy to run a mock draft through 6-8 rounds for anyone, if you wish. Please let which picks you have, the scoring, the starting requirements, etc

Wannabee.....I'd be curious to know your thoughts on Willis McGahee. You replied to a post I had today about going RB/WR/WR (WR from same team). Should I not do that and go RB/WR/RB, what about McGahee at the #23 spot in the draft?Some facts and thoughts of mine:10 team, PPR league, standard scoring, I'm #3 slot.Thoughts:McGahee is projected around #15-16 RB in our league now and should be there at #23. He has potential to exceed that projected position, esp if he catches more and gets more GL action. Other alternatives at that slot have issues (Jones, Davis, etc.). Problem is that based on the sluff RB idea, which I'm warming to, I could get a better scoring PPR WR at the #23 slot (Chambers/Wayne, etc.) at 23, then maybe get a Willie Parker or Chester Taylor at 38. While I'm not sure Taylor will last to 38, he could be a real value if he is.Your thoughts on:1. Where McGahee should go...2. Should I get WR in the 3rd and wait for a 2/3 tier RB at 38/43, or beyond3. What about Gates. Would 23 pick in draft be too much of a reach? I think maybe so, due to opportunity cost of losing a Chambers or Wayne or McGahee.I'll hang up and listen.

 

[wannabee]

I would be happy to run a mock draft through 6-8 rounds for anyone, if you wish. Please let which picks you have, the scoring, the starting requirements, etc

Wannabee.....I'd be curious to know your thoughts on Willis McGahee. You replied to a post I had today about going RB/WR/WR (WR from same team). Should I not do that and go RB/WR/RB, what about McGahee at the #23 spot in the draft?Some facts and thoughts of mine:10 team, PPR league, standard scoring, I'm #3 slot.Thoughts:McGahee is projected around #15-16 RB in our league now and should be there at #23. He has potential to exceed that projected position, esp if he catches more and gets more GL action. Other alternatives at that slot have issues (Jones, Davis, etc.). Problem is that based on the sluff RB idea, which I'm warming to, I could get a better scoring PPR WR at the #23 slot (Chambers/Wayne, etc.) at 23, then maybe get a Willie Parker or Chester Taylor at 38. While I'm not sure Taylor will last to 38, he could be a real value if he is.Your thoughts on:1. Where McGahee should go...2. Should I get WR in the 3rd and wait for a 2/3 tier RB at 38/43, or beyond3. What about Gates. Would 23 pick in draft be too much of a reach? I think maybe so, due to opportunity cost of losing a Chambers or Wayne or McGahee.I'll hang up and listen.

I much prefer your 3rd round WR to WIllis in PPR. Isuspect you will get a top 10 WR in 3rd instead. As to the 4th round pick, I would continue to look for "Best Player Available". That very well could be RB, but I would not feel compelled to go RB in 4th. I suspect Willis will go in 3rd, even though I think he (and Jamal Lewis, too) are really better suited for the 4th rounds. I would also consider FWP, KJ, JJ, Dunn, Chester in this category that needs to wait until 4th round .. at least. Even though I love Gates, I think you are better off waiting. If he is there in 4th, you HAVE to take him. He has to be best player left.I think you should go RB/WR/WR then the 4th round will be the biggie. There will be choices.

 

[Reagan]

I would be happy to run a mock draft through 6-8 rounds for anyone, if you wish. Please let which picks you have, the scoring, the starting requirements, etc

Wannabee.....I'd be curious to know your thoughts on Willis McGahee. You replied to a post I had today about going RB/WR/WR (WR from same team). Should I not do that and go RB/WR/RB, what about McGahee at the #23 spot in the draft?Some facts and thoughts of mine:10 team, PPR league, standard scoring, I'm #3 slot.Thoughts:McGahee is projected around #15-16 RB in our league now and should be there at #23. He has potential to exceed that projected position, esp if he catches more and gets more GL action. Other alternatives at that slot have issues (Jones, Davis, etc.). Problem is that based on the sluff RB idea, which I'm warming to, I could get a better scoring PPR WR at the #23 slot (Chambers/Wayne, etc.) at 23, then maybe get a Willie Parker or Chester Taylor at 38. While I'm not sure Taylor will last to 38, he could be a real value if he is.Your thoughts on:1. Where McGahee should go...2. Should I get WR in the 3rd and wait for a 2/3 tier RB at 38/43, or beyond3. What about Gates. Would 23 pick in draft be too much of a reach? I think maybe so, due to opportunity cost of losing a Chambers or Wayne or McGahee.I'll hang up and listen.

I much prefer your 3rd round WR to WIllis in PPR. Isuspect you will get a top 10 WR in 3rd instead. As to the 4th round pick, I would continue to look for "Best Player Available". That very well could be RB, but I would not feel compelled to go RB in 4th. I suspect Willis will go in 3rd, even though I think he (and Jamal Lewis, too) are really better suited for the 4th rounds. I would also consider FWP, KJ, JJ, Dunn, Chester in this category that needs to wait until 4th round .. at least. Even though I love Gates, I think you are better off waiting. If he is there in 4th, you HAVE to take him. He has to be best player left.I think you should go RB/WR/WR then the 4th round will be the biggie. There will be choices.

Hey..thanks for the feedback. I posted elsewhere on the Gates topic. I've never had less than 2 RBs after 3 rounds, but then again, we just began PPR this year. I think I'd rather have a Chambers/Wayne at 23 and hold off on RB to round 4 and get a Taylor or something. Gates will be gone by the 38th pick. He went in early 4th last year I think (or late 3) w/o PPR. I suspect that guys around 28 will be looking at Roy Williams or Mcgahee or Gates and pull the trigger in late 3rd round for Gates. Good ideas you had.

 

[wannabee]

At this time, for redrafts only, I am "Taking a Stand" against Javon Walker. I love the guy for dynasty. But, even in dynasty, I see his ceiling as lower than if he was still in GB. I expect him to put Rod Smith numbers up every year beginning next year.

At present, with ADP updated yesterday, Walker is going in the 4th round in redrafts. His ADP is WR18 and 47 overall. He has been practicing some, but is still experience issues with his knee that was injured almost a year ago.

Even at full health, I do not think the Denver offense can sustain both he and Rod Smith at a high enough level to sustain this ADP. In fact, I think Rod is going to still be the WR1 for the Broncos in 2006. So, as you might guess, I feel that Rod Smith is a much better option in terms of value and production. On the value side, Smith's ADP is WR25 and pick 75 overall.

Here is the players in the same ADP tier as Walker:

45 45 0 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 47 1 WR17 Andre Johnson Hou/5

47 46 -1 WR18 Javon Walker Den/4

48 48 0 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 53 4 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

50 49 -1 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

51 51 0 RB27 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 55 3 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

I much prefer Smith in the early 7th round to Walker in the late 3rd round for redrafts this year. For dynasty, I think Walker should be productive.

Rod Smith is 36 years old and probably only has one more productive year left in him. But, he has put up solid numbers each year for several years. Also, I expect the Broncos to pass more this year than in the past due to a running game that is less certain and stable than in the past. But, I would ask you to look at Rod Smith's production over the years and see how big of a steal he is this year. He will be the WR1 again and the offense should pass more. Also, Rod has missed a total of 2 games in the last nine years.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1995 den | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 6 152 25.3 1 |

| 1996 den | 10 | 1 1 1.0 0 | 16 237 14.8 2 |

| 1997 den | 16 | 5 16 3.2 0 | 70 1180 16.9 12 |

| 1998 den | 16 | 6 63 10.5 0 | 86 1222 14.2 6 |

| 1999 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 79 1020 12.9 4 |

| 2000 den | 16 | 6 99 16.5 1 | 100 1602 16.0 8 |

| 2001 den | 15 | 3 27 9.0 0 | 113 1343 11.9 11 |

| 2002 den | 16 | 6 9 1.5 0 | 89 1027 11.5 5 |

| 2003 den | 15 | 10 98 9.8 0 | 74 845 11.4 3 |

| 2004 den | 16 | 5 33 6.6 0 | 79 1144 14.5 7 |

| 2005 den | 16 | 1 7 7.0 0 | 85 1105 13.0 6 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 167 | 43 353 8.2 1 | 797 10877 13.6 65

 

[wannabee]

I was down on this guy even before last night's game. But, last night helped it along. I am "Taking a Stand" against Joseph Addai for 2005. I did not like him when he was at LSU. I thought Ally Broussard was the superior RB by a good ways. Addai got his chance only when Broussard got injured. Sure, Addai has the measurables to be a great RB, but I think his running talent is not there. I know this may not be a popular stance, but that is what "Taking a Stand" is all about.

Now, to the numbers. Addai's ADP (as of yesterday) is RB26 and player 50 overall. That is way too high for a player who will not even start the season off as the RB1, especially when I have doubts as to his talent level - and carries such a high risk level. To put the ADP into perspective, RB27 (the next RB after Addai) is Cedric Benson. Benson is much more talented and should be the starter on a solid running team. I think Benson has a much better chance of producing equal, or better numbers relative to his ADP, than does Addai.

On the other side, I think Rhodes is a decent value play at RB32 and player 70 overall. Much talent will come off the board between these two picks.

Here are the ADPs for Addai and Rhodes with the players in the same ADP range:

48 48 0 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 53 4 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

50 49 -1 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

51 51 0 RB27 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 55 3 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

53 54 1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

54 56 2 WR19 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5

67 67 0 WR24 Lee Evans Buf/8

68 72 4 QB9 Jake Delhomme Car/9

69 66 -3 TE5 Alge Crumpler Atl/5

70 73 3 RB32 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

71 75 4 RB33 Frank Gore SF/7

72 74 2 RB34 Ron Dayne Den/4

73 78 5 QB10 Drew Bledsoe Dal/3

As some of you might have read in my other posts, the real value in these Indy RBs, is taking both. I do think they will have defined roles. The Indy RBs will make a good RB2 for your fantasy team if you "sluff RB2" to stack up at other positions. But, at this time, each of the RBs carries risk as to who will be in what role. So, I would advis:

1. Staying away due to the price (ADP) because other RBs are better in the same ADP tier

2. Only taking Rhodes because he should start the season as the RB1 and is much cheaper than Addai

3. Taking both Indy RBs to fill the RB2 spot on your fantasy team

 

[wannabee]

If anyone wants to discuss any of the posts in this thread, please do. I started this thread to "talk football".

Thanks.

 

[BertJones]

I was down on this guy even before last night's game. But, last night helped it along. I am "Taking a Stand" against Joseph Addai for 2005. I did not like him when he was at LSU. I thought Ally Broussard was the superior RB by a good ways. Addai got his chance only when Broussard got injured. Sure, Addai has the measurables to be a great RB, but I think his running talent is not there. I know this may not be a popular stance, but that is what "Taking a Stand" is all about.

Now, to the numbers. Addai's ADP (as of yesterday) is RB26 and player 50 overall. That is way too high for a player who will not even start the season off as the RB1, especially when I have doubts as to his talent level - and carries such a high risk level. To put the ADP into perspective, RB27 (the next RB after Addai) is Cedric Benson. Benson is much more talented and should be the starter on a solid running team. I think Benson has a much better chance of producing equal, or better numbers relative to his ADP, than does Addai.

On the other side, I think Rhodes is a decent value play at RB32 and player 70 overall. Much talent will come off the board between these two picks.

Here are the ADPs for Addai and Rhodes with the players in the same ADP range:

48 48 0 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 53 4 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

50 49 -1 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

51 51 0 RB27 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 55 3 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

53 54 1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

54 56 2 WR19 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5

67 67 0 WR24 Lee Evans Buf/8

68 72 4 QB9 Jake Delhomme Car/9

69 66 -3 TE5 Alge Crumpler Atl/5

70 73 3 RB32 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

71 75 4 RB33 Frank Gore SF/7

72 74 2 RB34 Ron Dayne Den/4

73 78 5 QB10 Drew Bledsoe Dal/3

As some of you might have read in my other posts, the real value in these Indy RBs, is taking both. I do think they will have defined roles. The Indy RBs will make a good RB2 for your fantasy team if you "sluff RB2" to stack up at other positions. But, at this time, each of the RBs carries risk as to who will be in what role. So, I would advis:

1. Staying away due to the price (ADP) because other RBs are better in the same ADP tier

2. Only taking Rhodes because he should start the season as the RB1 and is much cheaper than Addai

3. Taking both Indy RBs to fill the RB2 spot on your fantasy team

Wannabee,Thanks for your response to my thread. What would you think about taking Addai as a slot player? Or would Corey Dillion, Thomas Jones, Bell/Bell (Denver), McAllister be more valuable to you? I guess it is easy to fall in love with the rookies -- I have heard alot of good things about Addai so far, but since last nights game I am reading many negatives. You seem to have watched him play quite a bit.

Thanks in advance,

John

 

[wannabee]

From a pure value standpoint, I am "Taking a Stand" against Deuce McAllister. Here is a RB on a team that drafts the best RB prospect. This same RB, Deuce, is coming off of a major knne injury and is still re-habbing it.

Deuce has an ADP of RB28 and 55 overall. That does not sound too bad, unless you factor in Bush getting a ton of carries and touches AND news like:

Deuce McAllister has not yet faced contact

Published Mon Jul 31 10:02:00 a.m. ET 2006

(Rotoworld) Deuce McAllister has not yet faced contact in training camp.

Impact: McAllister has been making normal cuts in individual drills but says his knee swells from time to time. He's expected to face live hitting in a week or so.

Deuce is practicing, even more than what was expected, but how much upside can he really have?

Other players drafted around the same time pick as Deuce are:

52 55 3 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

53 54 1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

54 56 2 WR19 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5

55 50 -5 RB28 Deuce McAllister NO/7

56 58 2 WR20 Derrick Mason Bal/7

57 60 3 QB6 Donovan McNabb Phi/9

58 57 -1 WR21 Joe Horn NO/7

59 59 0 RB29 Fred Taylor Jac/6

60 61 1 WR22 Deion Branch NE/6

61 52 -9 RB30 Thomas Jones Chi/7

62 62 0 TE4 Todd Heap Bal/7

Also, even before the injury, Deuce was not having a great year. His stats were underperforming his ADP even last year. He was doing ok, but many spent a very early pick on Deuce in 2005. Here are his game stats in 2005:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 1 car | 26 64 | 5 | 2 |

| 2 nyg | 15 47 | 44 | 0 |

| 3 min | 14 63 | 19 | 1 |

| 4 buf | 27 130 | 16 | 0 |

| 5 gnb | 11 31 | 33 | 0 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| TOTAL | 93 335 | 117 | 3

Lastly, I think many still think of Deuce as the RB who had a monster year in 2002, somewhat like Jamal Lewis the year he had 2,000 yds.

I would advise letting someone else take Deuce in the mid fifth round while you get a stud at another position. The RB talent drops off at Benson, imo, a few picks before Deuce.