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Good Luck. I would go with Addai for sure and prob either Bush or jacobs at the other RB spot. The WRs are easier for me. I would go with Booker for sure. And the decision comes down to Colston and Walker at WR2 and I would go with Colston just because he will get tons of targets with Horn out. TE, I would go with LJ Smith. Now, back to RB2. I think I would go with bush since I see him getting tons of catches this week.
You have a very good team. I think you start 2 QBs, you must keep two QBs, so one of the extra keepers has to be a QB, imo.So, I would keep Carr. I think he has to come back next year ... atleast one other year.I would not keep another TE. I think you need to fill the other keeprs with Rbs and WRs. The best three I see for PPR and your team are: Calhoun with the hope he is the opening day starter in Detroit next yr, Hackett because he could be starting next year, and Demetrius Williams because he looks like a stud. The near misses are DBennett, VJax and Drew Carter. But, I think DWilliams and Hackett are future stars.Hope this helps.PrestonV20 said:
I think you are right, Gore and Drew are easy choices. I noticed today that Tom Jones practiced, so I would sit Benson unless I see that Jones is out. If Jones is out, Benson is your 3rd RB. No way I would want to start Caddy. I think your choice is either Dayne or James. This one is a close one for me. I know many will disagree, but I would go with Edge. Dayne gives me two concerns: the Texans might be down way too much too early and not be able to get many rush attempts AND I think there is a strong possibility that either Lundy or Gado gets carries and reduces Dayne's impact. Who knows from week to week how that will play out. So, I would take Edge and I think he will have a TD and 90 total yards.Good luck.
Sometimes more.I look forward to getting back to the strategy topics. You had some very good stuff last offseason.
thank you for the kind words. I hope to get started real soo, beginning with a review of 2006 topics/predictions.
I loved this move at the beginning of the year, and it panned out. TO was WR2 given FBG scoring. Using the ADP info from Sept here: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06dodds_adp.php TO was WR8 in ADP. He finished at WR2, even while only playing 15 games. Grade: A
Fitzgerald had an ADP of WR3 in preseason. I thought this was WAY to high given all of the variables in AZ. So, let's look how he finished. Fitz finished the year, in FBG scoring, as WR24. And amny will say, "but, wannabee, Fitz only played 12 games". OK. Does it matter if he finished the year as WR14 in points per game? Still, he was way overvalued. He finished with a PPG of 10.11 points a game average. My advice was to wait a bit and draft Boldin instead who had an ADP of WR7. Boldin, too, was a disappointment. But, he finished only 1.2 points a game less than Fitzgerald which made him a better value play.Grade: AWould have been A+ if Boldin had produced better. But, let's remember that this was a very unpopular stance to take in August. I just saw no value in picking Fitz.
This one looked GREAT for the first half of the season, before Toomer was hurt. Toomer started off very hot and Plax did not. But, Toomer, in PPG, still finished as WR38, albeit in 8 games. Plax finished a little better than his ADP of this post. He finished as WR12. So, Plax turned out to be a little value. I would maintain that Plax's numbers and production were due to the Toomer injury. But, that is no excuse. There are no caveats when making draft picks.Grade: C
This is one of those predictions I felt very strongly about. Caddy was overvalued, and probably always will be. His ADP was RB10. Even I did not think he would have this poor of a year. He finished as RB37 in total points and RB39 in points per game. WOW!Grade: A+
This seems so obvious now, but Davis had an ADP of pick 18 for some reason.Grade: A
Boy, was I wrong. I bought into this in my own drafts and had him on 3 redraft teams. He killed me in those leagues and I was so happy with the value I got in him. OUCH is all I can say. For the record, Moss was WR47 in points per game. Grade: FNothing more to say about this poor prediction.
This turned out to be a good prediction. I know many were thinking how could one of these WRs not be a top 5 WR. But, the WRs in Wash all disappointed. In Points per game, Santana was WR29, ARE, WR69, and Lloyd WR100. I know this surprised many, but Wash does not use the WR2/3 enough to be worth drafting. Grade: B+Was not that brave of a prediction.
Another prediction I was wrong on. He had an ADP of WR18 and finished as WR9 in points per game. I have to hand it to Walker. He has looked great this season, even with the QB change and lack of the typical Denver running game. Grade: C-
I felt strongly about this prediction from preseason, even until now. Addai did outscore his ADP of RB26 while finishing as RB18 in points per game. He preformed much better than I thought he could/would. Rhodes finished almost right on his ADP. This tells me that we, as a fantasy community, underrated the production available at the Indy RB position.Grade: C-
Congrats. Atleast you have good decisions. The keepers are:QB Carson PalmerRB Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, Michael TurnerWR Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Brandon MarshallAnd, if I read it right, you have to "keep" your college guys Lynch, McFadden and StewartThat leaves 15 "keepers" that need to be narrowed down to 13. Is this right? Also, you have to use your 1.04 and 1.05 on your college players. This leaves you with the 1.1 and 1.3 picks. I hope this is correct.If so, here are the options I would consider:a. Package Jamal and 1.04 for Rudi and 1.12. This would suit both of your needs. Rudi is a big upgrade.b. He only has 8-9 good keepers. So, I would look at a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal if possible. Maybe something like: Leiws, TO and 1.04 for Smith and 1.12 (as you suggested above) or maybe trying to add White and Roy to the deal and attempt to get alexander. I do not know if that would fly, but a deal like: Lewis, White, TO, Roy, and 1.04 for Smith, Alexander, and 1.12. This would upgrade your keepers/starters and allow you to keep everyone. I am very high on Evans and Marshall and would try to keep both, if at all possible. Both are certainly in the top 150 players (those keepable). c. Also, I might also see if you can get a Lewis, White, 1.04 for Alexander and 1.12.I will put some more though into it. But, it should be easy to pull of a couple 2 for one deals to upgrade keepers. You have some very good young players. If nothing else, sell White or Lewis for 2008 1st rounders. I expect the 2008 draft class to be MUCH stronger than the 2007. I am trying to get 2008 picks as much as possible. So, here is another plan: Sell White &/or Lewis for high 2007 pick. Then sell the pick for 2007 2nd and 2008 1st, if that makes sense. I am looking hard at acquiring as many 2008 picks as possible.
Thanks. Our system is confusing but you have it right; with college guys it's 15 keepers that I need to get to 13. I like the options above, especially getting picks for next year as even with our college roster the draft should be strong. What are your thoughts on Clinton Portis? The owner of him also has Travis Henry and 2 late draft picks (1.10 and 1.11). I could propose a Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, and my 1.4 for Portis and the 1.11. I'm thinking this would be a no brainer, but maybe there is more risk than I appreciate with Portis's mileage and LaDell Betts in the mix next year.I'll send out some feelers discussing the options.
I know many may question keeping Marshall, but that guy looks like a future star. I would try to keep Evans and Marshall as much as possible. Since Roy is worth a ton more than Evans, even though the production is close, that is why I suggested Roy above.I do like Portis and think that would be a great deal for you, but I would want Betts, too, if possible. You never know how that will shake out, but Portis is considered to be one of the top 5-6 RBs for fantasy value. I think you and I are on the same page. Trade quantity for quality to improve your starters. Also, you have such quality college players and early picks that the depth will take care of itself.I would target all of the best players in the league and try for some quantity for qualit deals, and try to get 2008 1st rounders, if possible. The 2008 picks are very cheap right now since they are 2 drafts away. After the draft in April, the price for those picks will go up. I hope that makes since. Basically, it is because it is one year further away and one year further from thought.
I do not like that deal at all. Chester is not that huge of an upgrade over Lewis and TO is worth a ton. I, too, would look at trying to upgrade the keepers. You could have great starters if this plays out well for you.
I would think that the best you can go for here is:TO, Lewis, 1.04 for Smith 1.12, 2008 1stYou will need the extra 2008 1st for a college guy. How does this look? Smith is WR1 or WR2 in most dynasty rankings.
Hey, hope I can help. Sorry if this is too long. A few things:Alex Gibbs, the father of the zone blocking system that he implemented in Denver then took to Atlanta resigned his position as consultant after the firing of Mora. I think this does impact Norwood. There are questions about the new blocking scheme and what will happen with the undersized Olinemen?Norwood. I have a few thoughts that might differ from most people. I see rook RBs as having the highest value right after their rookie year. That said, many (and I agree) think that Norwood will either start or get a ton of carries next year since Dunn is aging quickly and had an off year. From my inquiries to the Norwood owners, his value is sky high. I mean HIGH.On the trades, I might look to package both Bells and offer them to the KJ owner and see if you can get a bite. I would love that deal for you. All of what I have read says that the Lions love Jones and that they hope he will be back by camp. But, it may take longer. You would still be buying very low. I do see Jones back at some time next year. But, he was very productive before the injury.I might also see if the Willis owner would go for the Bells in a 2-for-1 deal. You might have to add something to the offer. But, Jauron is a run first coach. The only downside is that the OLine needs a major upgrade. You are right in that Willis is a young, strong, RB.Good luck.
Thanks for the advice. This is exactly what I wound up doing. I'm happy with it. And I'd rather have Smith than TO/Lewis at the end of the day. Now that I traded for him, what do you think of the chance that Smith returns to form? What happens to his value if Delhomme is replaced? I guess it depends on who replaces him, right?
sorry, i did not see this earlier. you can always email me. I just do not make it to fbg during work. If you still have not done this deal, let me know
I like it a lot. Acquiring young talent is always a good move. The draft pick swap does not hurt you at all. Also, who knows where TO will be next year.
I think you are spot on about Delhomme/Smith. Check Smith's numbers with Weinke. they are not nearly as good. I did read recently where Fox said Jake is QB next year.
Hey, to be honest, I would want a ton for either the 1.1 or Brown at this time. The 1.1 will go up in value over the next few months leading up to the NFL draft in late April. Most would want that pick for Peterson. So, if in March, you put that pick on the market, you could get much more than right now. I would tell that other owner that you want to hold off untill after the NFL Combine before looking at trading the pick.On Brown, I would hold off until you see who the coach is and if Ricky will be back. Most think that Ricky will not be back since Saban is gone.On both, I would hold off a bit if possible.
to be honest, I see nothing on his roster that would make me want ot trade Turner. We are just now starting to hear the Turner buzz. Just wait until the spring. His value is going up, up, up. I would hold for now.
Your team:QB (start 1): Carson PalmerRB (3): Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, Michael Turner, Musa Smith, Michael RobinsonWR (3): Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Brandon Marshall, Mike WilliamsA few possibilities I see:1. Start off with Ronnie Brown for Portis 2. If that does not fly, you can try adding White (who he needs) and you get Brown (who will be a UFA)3. If that does not fly, try Brown and Roy for Portis and Henry4. Another option would be to offer Maroney and White for Portis. If he likes young RBs, he would love the offer. But, you need Betts, too. Jackson, Brown, and Portis would be great starters.Since you will have to cut down your roster, I would look for a 2-for-1 deal somehow. Hope this helps.
The spreadsheet is downloadable from the shark pool thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=300919
Personally, I would not do that deal at all. Here is why:In a keep 7 league, you probably would not keep Cotch anyway, imo. Your starting lineup will prob be 3 RBs and 3 WRs. But, for your keepers, you will probably cut Jordan due to his injury. Insstead of trying 1-for-1 deals, I would suggest a different approach. I would suggest trying to get a 2-for-1 deal. This other owner, imo should not keep Cotch in a keep 7 league. But, maybe you can trade him Lewis (or Jordan) and one of the Mosses for Fitz or Walker. Jordan would be a much better keeper, imo, for the other owner than Cotch. So, in general, I would target teams that do not have 7 strong keepers and offer them a 2-for-1 deal. Also, in keep 7 leagues, I owuld only keep RBs and WRs unless scoring gives TEs or QBs an advantage. Also, I would not be afraid to keep more RBs. One thing we know is that RBs are always in demand and injuries even drive up the value of RBs during preseason and regular season.
I may look at it differently than most, but in a 12 team league that only keeps 13 players each, you should only keep 1 QB year to year. If this is the case, I would not trade for Brees since you have Palmer. I would prefer to build up my Rbs and WRs. Your WRs are very strong and so are your Rbs. Even though you WRs are a little stronger than your RBs,the value would be to take Rice or Meachem at the pick ... if you cannot trade it for a RB. That is the one position I might look to upgrade if possible. But, as far as this scenario, I would not trade for Brees while having Palmer as the starter. The RBs left for the draft are tradional 2nd and 3rd round picks and 1.05 is way too eary unless one has a great combine and is drafted into a great situaion (doubtful).
Thanks. It's funny to think I could wind up with Calvin Johnson, DeWayne Jarrett, and either Ginn, Rice or Meacham. After thinking about it some more that might even make sense because my college roster has Lynch, McFadden and Stewart so I'd need some space for RBs likely next year if they declare early.He's offered Warrick Dunn this morning for the 1.5 pick. I'm not sure how much Dunn has left in the tank, but I'm 99% sure this doesn't make sense for me. His other RBs are Edge James, Thomas Jones, and Julius JonesAnother owner who owns Portis is back. I think he'd be willing to do something involving Ronnie Brown. Given the new change of head coach at Miami, would Brown for Portis straight up still be a good deal in your eyes? What about Ronnie Brown and my 1.5 for Portis and Henry. That would give me the starter in Tenn no matter what and possibly the higher ranked RB in Portis over Brown. Unless you foresee a big increase with LT's old offensive coordinator now the head coach in Miami. Thanks.
