WARNING! 40 Time for WR's --- WAY OVERRATTED (1 Viewer)

[RUN HARD]

This is a PUBLIC WARNING!!!!

Every year I laugh at a lot of people going CRAZY about WR's and 40 times. 40 times are very UNIMPORTANT for WR's......VERY.

I see tons of responses basing draft position based on 40 results.

WARNING---Please don't fall inlove with 40 times on WR's....it's a poor measuring tool,

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

OMG I will BE more CAREFUL WHEN evaluating COMBINE NUMBERS!!!!!!!

Thanks

 

[KellysHeroes]

Route running and CATCHING THE BALL... thats what matters in the end.

see Troy Williamson if you think only speed matters

 

[Despyzer]

WARNING---Please don't fall inlove with 40 times on WR's....it's a poor measuring tool,

I not only fell in love with a 40 time when I was in college, I married her. Worst mistake I ever made.

 

[massraider]

WARNING---Please don't fall inlove with 40 times on WR's....it's a poor measuring tool,

I not only fell in love with a 40 time when I was in college, I married her. Worst mistake I ever made.

i remember that skank1 i only dated her. she stole my shift key.

 

[LHUCKS]

Honda

 

[RoyDubb]

Route running and CATCHING THE BALL... thats what matters in the end.see Troy Williamson if you think only speed matters

dont bury Williamson just yet.

 

[Phurfur]

Route running and CATCHING THE BALL... thats what matters in the end.see Troy Williamson if you think only speed matters

Don't forget the ability to get off the line of scrimmage.

 

[Weiner Dog]

O/U on references to Jerry Rice = 4

 

[Tornacl]

I bet measuring how many Krispy Kreme donuts they eat on an average day would be a worse measuring tool.

 

[cstu]

You still can't teach speed. For every WR who doesn't make it in the league because of hands/route running there's another one who doesn't make it because he's too slow.

 

[Ned]

how ironic.

 

[redman]

This is important information. Wait, I'm going to write it down.

 

[crystal]

Speed can sometimes be helpful, like when you are trying to outrun somebody. At other times, it doesn't matter very much.

 

[FavreCo]

Thanks for the info.

CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!

But really, the dude is right. I'm not even sure why there is a Ginn thread. Everyone knows he's fast. Everyone that has a clue also knows that he bring nothing else to the table that someone like Higgins or Jason Hill doesn't have. They are better route runners and have better hands. They will be around long after Ginn is an after thought.

 

[RUN HARD]

2 things far more important

TOP END SPEED

ACCELERATION

40 time places all emphasis of getting OUT OF THE BLOCK.

To get open, you must have QUICK acceleration from 10 MPH to 20 MPH

To break away and NOT get caught...must have TOP END SPEED.

Both of these don't show up in 40.

All I am saying that the 40 does not measure what is important. What is important is:

A - ability to seperate from defender...thus acceleration from half to full speed and ability to run pattern

B - Breakaway ability...40 time does not measure how fast someone is...a guy can be slow out of the blocks, but their TOP END speed is very fast.

SO...why don't they give stats on WR's like this:

TOP END Speed ----> 27.7 MPH

10 MPH to 20 MPH ---> 2.5 seconds

I would rather look at that VERSUS 0 to 40 in 4.4

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Too bad all these NFL scouts and GMs don't know this secret.

It would sure save us all a lot of time.

I will agree though that too much emphasis is placed on 40 times. But they're not UNimportant.

And the factors you outline should probably be examined as well.

 

[RUN HARD]

It would eliminate all the 1st Round BUSTS at WR based on a FAST 40.

I am sure someone could post all the 1st RD WR busts.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

It would eliminate all the 1st Round BUSTS at WR based on a FAST 40.

I am sure someone could post all the 1st RD WR busts.

I'm intrigued. Here's the list of wide receivers drafted. Someone cut and paste out the 1st rounders and let's speculate a bit.

 

[Chaos Commish]

It would eliminate all the 1st Round BUSTS at WR based on a FAST 40.

I am sure someone could post all the 1st RD WR busts.

I'm intrigued. Here's the list of wide receivers drafted. Someone cut and paste out the 1st rounders and let's speculate a bit.

Just scanning, I think it is safe to conclude overrated 40 times have very little impact on whether or not a 1st round WR busts or not. It appears to me that a bunch of the busts could have used faster 40s.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Here are your 1st & 2nd rounders going back to 1990. Which were overrated due to fast 40 times?

2006

1 . 25 - Santonio Holmes | Steelers | Ohio State

2 . 4 - Chad Jackson | Patriots | Florida

2 . 12 - Sinorice Moss | Giants | Miami (FL)

2 . 20 - Greg Jennings | Packers | Western Michigan

2 . 25 - Devin Hester | Bears | Miami (FL)

2005

1 . 3 - Braylon Edwards | Browns | Michigan

1 . 7 - Troy Williamson | Vikings | South Carolina

1 . 10 - Mike Williams | Lions | USC

1 . 21 - Matt Jones | Jaguars | Arkansas

1 . 22 - Mark Clayton | Ravens | Oklahoma

1 . 27 - Roddy White | Falcons | Alabama-Birmingham

2 . 3 - Reggie Brown | Eagles | Georgia

2 . 7 - Mark Bradley | Bears | Oklahoma

2 . 23 - Roscoe Parrish | Bills | Miami (FL)

2 . 26 - Terrence Murphy | Packers | Texas A&M

2 . 29 - Vincent Jackson | Chargers | Northern Colorado

2004

1 . 3 - Larry Fitzgerald | Cardinals | Pittsburgh

1 . 7 - Roy Williams | Lions | Texas

1 . 9 - Reggie Williams | Jaguars | Washington

1 . 13 - Lee Evans | Bills | Wisconsin

1 . 15 - Michael Clayton | Buccaneers | Louisiana State

1 . 29 - Michael Jenkins | Falcons | Ohio State

1 . 31 - Rashaun Woods | 49ers | Oklahoma State

2 . 18 - Devery Henderson | Saints | Louisiana State

2 . 22 - Darius Watts | Broncos | Marshall

2 . 30 - Keary Colbert | Panthers | USC

2003

1 . 2 - Charles Rogers | Lions | Michigan State

1 . 3 - Andre Johnson | Texans | Miami (FL)

1 . 17 - Bryant Johnson | Cardinals | Penn State

2 . 12 - Taylor Jacobs | Redskins | Florida

2 . 13 - Bethel Johnson | Patriots | Texas A&M

2 . 22 - Anquan Boldin | Cardinals | Florida State

2 . 28 - Tyrone Calico | Titans | Middle Tennessee State

2 . 31 - Teyo Johnson | Raiders | Stanford

2002

1 . 13 - Donte Stallworth | Saints | Tennessee

1 . 19 - Ashley Lelie | Broncos | Hawaii

1 . 20 - Javon Walker | Packers | Florida State

2 . 1 - Jabar Gaffney | Texans | Florida

2 . 4 - Josh Reed | Bills | Louisiana State

2 . 14 - Tim Carter | Giants | Auburn

2 . 15 - Andre Davis | Browns | Virginia Tech

2 . 16 - Reche Caldwell | Chargers | Florida

2 . 30 - Antwaan Randle El | Steelers | Indiana

2 . 31 - Antonio Bryant | Cowboys | Pittsburgh

2 . 33 - Deion Branch | Patriots | Louisville

2001

1 . 8 - David Terrell | Bears | Michigan

1 . 9 - Koren Robinson | Seahawks | North Carolina State

1 . 15 - Rod Gardner | Redskins | Clemson

1 . 16 - Santana Moss | Jets | Miami (FL)

1 . 25 - Freddie Mitchell | Eagles | UCLA

1 . 30 - Reggie Wayne | Colts | Miami (FL)

2 . 2 - Quincy Morgan | Browns | Kansas State

2 . 5 - Chad Johnson | Bengals | Oregon State

2 . 10 - Robert Ferguson | Packers | Texas A&M

2 . 21 - Chris Chambers | Dolphins | Wisconsin

2000

1 . 4 - Peter Warrick | Bengals | Florida State

1 . 8 - Plaxico Burress | Steelers | Michigan State

1 . 10 - Travis Taylor | Ravens | Florida

1 . 21 - Sylvester Morris | Chiefs | Jackson State

1 . 29 - R. Jay Soward | Jaguars | USC

2 . 1 - Dennis Northcutt | Browns | Arizona

2 . 5 - Todd Pinkston | Eagles | Southern Mississippi

2 . 16 - Jerry Porter | Raiders | West Virginia

3 . 4 - Ron Dugans | Bengals | Florida State

1999

1 . 6 - Torry Holt | Rams | North Carolina State

1 . 8 - David Boston | Cardinals | Ohio State

1 . 13 - Troy Edwards | Steelers | Louisiana Tech

2 . 1 - Kevin Johnson | Browns | Syracuse

2 . 22 - Peerless Price | Bills | Tennessee

1998

1 . 16 - Kevin Dyson | Oilers | Utah

1 . 21 - Randy Moss | Vikings | Marshall

1 . 30 - Marcus Nash | Broncos | Tennessee

2 . 2 - Jerome Pathon | Colts | Washington

2 . 4 - Jacquez Green | Buccaneers | Florida

2 . 12 - Patrick Johnson | Ravens | Oregon

2 . 20 - Germane Crowell | Lions | Virginia

2 . 22 - Tony Simmons | Patriots | Wisconsin

2 . 25 - Joe Jurevicius | Giants | Penn State

2 . 29 - Mikhael Ricks | Chargers | Stephen F. Austin

1997

1 . 7 - Ike Hilliard | Giants | Florida

1 . 15 - Yatil Green | Dolphins | Miami (FL)

1 . 16 - Reidel Anthony | Buccaneers | Florida

1 . 27 - Rae Carruth | Panthers | Colorado

2 . 16 - Joey Kent | Oilers | Tennessee

2 . 17 - Kevin Lockett | Chiefs | Kansas State

2 . 23 - Will Blackwell | Steelers | San Diego State

1996

1 . 1 - Keyshawn Johnson | Jets | USC

1 . 7 - Terry Glenn | Patriots | Ohio State

1 . 18 - Eddie Kennison | Rams | Louisiana State

1 . 19 - Marvin Harrison | Colts | Syracuse

1 . 24 - Eric Moulds | Bills | Mississippi State

2 . 1 - Alex Van Dyke | Jets | Nevada

2 . 4 - Amani Toomer | Giants | Michigan

2 . 11 - Bryan Still | Chargers | Virginia Tech

2 . 13 - Muhsin Muhammad | Panthers | Michigan State

2 . 22 - Bobby Engram | Bears | Penn State

2 . 26 - Derrick Mayes | Packers | Notre Dame

1995

1 . 4 - Michael Westbrook | Redskins | Colorado

1 . 8 - Joey Galloway | Seahawks | Ohio State

1 . 10 - J.J. Stokes | 49ers | UCLA

2 . 15 - Frank Sanders | Cardinals | Auburn

2 . 29 - Jimmy Oliver | Chargers | Texas Christian

1994

1 . 17 - Charles Johnson | Steelers | Colorado

1 . 21 - Johnnie Morton | Lions | USC

1 . 24 - Thomas Lewis | Giants | Indiana

1 . 29 - Derrick Alexander | Browns | Michigan

2 . 1 - Darnay Scott | Bengals | San Diego State

2 . 4 - Isaac Bruce | Rams | Memphis

2 . 6 - Kevin Lee | Patriots | Alabama

2 . 11 - David Palmer | Vikings | Alabama

2 . 12 - Ryan Yarborough | Jets | Wyoming

2 . 16 - Bert Emanuel | Falcons | Rice

2 . 19 - Bucky Brooks | Bills | North Carolina

1993

1 . 7 - Curtis Conway | Bears | USC

1 . 16 - Sean Dawkins | Colts | California

1 . 25 - O.J. McDuffie | Dolphins | Penn State

2 . 17 - Kevin Williams | Cowboys | Miami (FL)

2 . 21 - Victor Bailey | Eagles | Missouri

2 . 23 - Qadry Ismail | Vikings | Syracuse

2 . 27 - Vincent Brisby | Patriots | N.E. Louisiana

1992

1 . 4 - Desmond Howard | Redskins | Michigan

2 . 3 - Carl Pickens | Bengals | Tennessee

2 . 8 - Jimmy Smith | Cowboys | Jackson State

2 . 16 - Courtney Hawkins | Buccaneers | Michigan State

2 . 24 - Patrick Rowe | Browns | San Diego State

1991

1 . 10 - Herman Moore | Lions | Virginia

1 . 12 - Alvin Harper | Cowboys | Tennessee

1 . 13 - Mike Pritchard | Falcons | Colorado

1 . 23 - Randal Hill | Dolphins | Miami (FL)

2 . 15 - Wesley Carroll | Saints | Miami (FL)

2 . 19 - Jeff Graham | Steelers | Ohio State

2 . 24 - Doug Thomas | Seahawks | Clemson

1990

1 . 0 - Rob Moore | Jets | Syracuse

2 . 1 - Alexander Wright | Cowboys | Auburn

2 . 3 - Reggie Rembert | Jets | West Virginia

2 . 25 - Mike Bellamy | Eagles | Illinois

 

[Despyzer]

Now who is going to prune that list down to the busts and list their pre-draft 40 times?

 

[redman]

Now who is going to prune that list down to the busts and list their pre-draft 40 times?

:notit:

 

[Despyzer]

Now who is going to prune that list down to the busts and list their pre-draft 40 times?

:notit:

CHASE!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

 

[-X-]

Now who is going to prune that list down to the busts and list their pre-draft 40 times?

:notit:

LMAO

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I'm hoping for some analysis behind these assertions rather than just "gut feeling".

 

[Chaos Commish]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

I cannot find the article at the moment, but I believe WR and CB are the two most popular first round choices over the past 20 years.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

I cannot find the article at the moment, but I believe WR and CB are the two most popular first round choices over the past 20 years.

I meant that the current "en vogue" philosophy seems to be to wait on WRs. Maybe I've just been tainted in my perception by being a Vikings fan and seeing what the Patriots have gotten by on over the last few years.

 

[redman]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

I cannot find the article at the moment, but I believe WR and CB are the two most popular first round choices over the past 20 years.

Not surprising given that they're also the positions capable of fielding the most players at one time. You don't see two-QB or three-OT sets very often.

 

[redman]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

Not only that, but if you look at the Super Bowl championship teams from the last decade, the overall talent they fielded at WR was not all that impressive usually, and it's noteworthy for its lack of stars, the Colts being an unusual exception in that regard. If you're trying to build a winner with a cornerstone player, you should look elsewhere besides WR.

 

[Despyzer]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

I cannot find the article at the moment, but I believe WR and CB are the two most popular first round choices over the past 20 years.

Not surprising given that they're also the positions capable of fielding the most players at one time. You don't see two-QB or three-OT sets very often.

What about LB then? You don't see too many standard alignments with fewer than three.

 

[massraider]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

Not only that, but if you look at the Super Bowl championship teams from the last decade, the overall talent they fielded at WR was not all that impressive usually, and it's noteworthy for its lack of stars, the Colts being an unusual exception in that regard. If you're trying to build a winner with a cornerstone player, you should look elsewhere besides WR.

Preach on, brother!

 

[redman]

No wonder coaches are averse to taking WRs in the 1st rounds. Some of those years yeilded next to nothing.

I cannot find the article at the moment, but I believe WR and CB are the two most popular first round choices over the past 20 years.

Not surprising given that they're also the positions capable of fielding the most players at one time. You don't see two-QB or three-OT sets very often.

What about LB then? You don't see too many standard alignments with fewer than three.

You almost never see more than four LB's, but four and five CB sets have become more common as the passing game has taken off. The thing about LB's IMHO is that that's a position at which a player who is not as athletically gifted as measured by the stats obtained at the combine can more easily excel than at WR or CB, where one's athletic gifts tend to be more heavily relied upon. A tough, hard-working and heady LB is far more valuable than a physically talented but unschooled or non-instinctive player. Yeah, you'd like to have both and there are exceptions, but as a general matter you can develop a LB drafted lower more easily than you can a WR or CB.

 

[ImTheScientist]

This is a PUBLIC WARNING!!!!

Every year I laugh at a lot of people going CRAZY about WR's and 40 times. 40 times are very UNIMPORTANT for WR's......VERY.

I see tons of responses basing draft position based on 40 results.

WARNING---Please don't fall inlove with 40 times on WR's....it's a poor measuring tool,

And they run them because???? If they were very UNIMPORTANT they would not bother with them.

 

[RUN HARD]

I think the 40 is great for RB's and other positions. I am not sure why they run them for WR's....

If I was a GM...I would want all WR's MAX MPH + see how long it takes a WR to run 20 yards with a running start at 50% of speed (have WR's run at 10 - 15 MPH...then drop a gate and time them in a 20 yard dash). This measure TOP END SPEED and to see if they have BREAKAWAY speed and NOT get caught + measures ability to SEPERATE.

a 40 just measures quickness from start to finish. Getting open is all about seperation...running good patterns...and acceleration. a 40 also does not measure TOP END speed. I am sure we all have seen the guy with sub 4.4 speed get caught be a guy with a slower 40 time. Why? Because of TOP END speed.

So that is my question too...why have WR's run them? It's better than NO TIMES....but it is misleading for WR's.

 

[Biabreakable]

What does miles per hour have to do with measuring a Wr? The game only lasts an hour (without commercials) and the field is only 120 yards long.

They do run a thing called the short shuttle. You might look into that.

As far as 1st round Wrs the bust rate is 50% so half the Wrs drafted in the 1st round were wasted picks. I do not have pre draft 40 times for them all nor is that somthing I feel is important enough to keep track of.

Of all the Wrs that have been drafted in the 1st round I am not sure what percentage of them ran fast 40 times but busting seems to be pretty equal opportunity for them fast or slow. Maybe more of the slower 1st round Wrs bust than the faster ones or maybe most of them ARE FAST but they bust anyways.

Damb 40 time.

 

[RUN HARD]

Nobody talks about shuttle times. I think it would be neat to look at past drafts with shuttle & 40 splits. Maybe the shuttle has some interesting info.

AS far as MPH...I just mean what is the TOP MPH a WR can hit...like on a radar gun.

 

[Ozymandias]

Do they measure SWIVEL HIPS at the COMBINE?

 

[Ned]

2001 1 . 8 - David Terrell | Bears | Michigan 1 . 9 - Koren Robinson | Seahawks | North Carolina State1 . 15 - Rod Gardner | Redskins | Clemson

 

[plymkr]

WOW on 1996 WR Draft.

1996

1 . 1 - Keyshawn Johnson | Jets | USC

1 . 7 - Terry Glenn | Patriots | Ohio State

1 . 18 - Eddie Kennison | Rams | Louisiana State

1 . 19 - Marvin Harrison | Colts | Syracuse

1 . 24 - Eric Moulds | Bills | Mississippi State

2 . 1 - Alex Van Dyke | Jets | Nevada

2 . 4 - Amani Toomer | Giants | Michigan

2 . 11 - Bryan Still | Chargers | Virginia Tech

2 . 13 - Muhsin Muhammad | Panthers | Michigan State

2 . 22 - Bobby Engram | Bears | Penn State

2 . 26 - Derrick Mayes | Packers | Notre Dame

Many of these guys are still playing!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

So it was nothing more than "gut feeling" on this theory?

I was hoping there may be something to this.

 

[RUN HARD]

I don't have the 40 times.

 

[RUN HARD]

I don't have the 40 times.

 

[Despyzer]

WOW on 1996 WR Draft.

1996

1 . 1 - Keyshawn Johnson | Jets | USC

1 . 7 - Terry Glenn | Patriots | Ohio State

1 . 18 - Eddie Kennison | Rams | Louisiana State

1 . 19 - Marvin Harrison | Colts | Syracuse

1 . 24 - Eric Moulds | Bills | Mississippi State

2 . 1 - Alex Van Dyke | Jets | Nevada

2 . 4 - Amani Toomer | Giants | Michigan

2 . 11 - Bryan Still | Chargers | Virginia Tech

2 . 13 - Muhsin Muhammad | Panthers | Michigan State

2 . 22 - Bobby Engram | Bears | Penn State

2 . 26 - Derrick Mayes | Packers | Notre Dame

Many of these guys are still playing!

Chargers gave up their first in '97 to draft this guy. He managed 83 catches in his 5 years in the league. Easily the worst of this bunch.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I don't have the 40 times.

Then how do you know they're overrated?

 

[Keg]

someone can feel free to ck my math:

4.40 forty=18.6 MPH

4.50 forty=18.2 MPH

4.60 forty=17.8 MPH

you cant just ignore a 40 time but there are times that I think people forget just how small a difference .10 is...but football is a game of inches and that .10 can easily be the difference between and INT or a TD

 

[Native]

Looking past all the sarcastic remarks, the OP makes a valid point in his second and third posts.

To respond, I will add that many of these measurables do in fact exist. When players run the 40 at the combine, their times are divided into "10 yard splits" to gauge a players initial burst off the line, peak acceleration etc. The splits are not reported much by the mainstream media because theyre not as sexy as the 40 yard times, but teams definitely use them extensively when evaluating players. For example, look at Derek Hagan at last years combine. While his 4.42 40 was considered good-but-not-great, his 10 yard split time of 1.52 was the fastest of any player at Indianapolis. What it means is that Hagan got off the line and into his routes at top speed faster than any other reciever. Nick Saban went as far as to single out Hagan's split time as one of the primary reasons the Dolphins drafted him. The same data exists for the second 10 yard split, the 20 yard split, etc. These numbers may not garner as much attention as the 40 times, but teams definitely use them.

You know, this place has become much more sarcastic lately. This is a good topic.

 

[Ozymandias]

Looking past all the sarcastic remarks, the OP makes a valid point in his second and third posts. To respond, I will add that many of these measurables do in fact exist. When players run the 40 at the combine, their times are divided into "10 yard splits" to gauge a players initial burst off the line, peak acceleration etc. The splits are not reported much by the mainstream media because theyre not as sexy as the 40 yard times, but teams definitely use them extensively when evaluating players. For example, look at Derek Hagan at last years combine. While his 4.42 40 was considered good-but-not-great, his 10 yard split time of 1.52 was the fastest of any player at Indianapolis. What it means is that Hagan got off the line and into his routes at top speed faster than any other reciever. Nick Saban went as far as to single put Hagan's split time as one of the primary reasons the Dolphins drafted him. The same data exists for the second 10 yard split, the 20 yard split, etc. These numbers may not garner as much attention as the 40 times, but teams definitely use them. You know, this place has become much more sarcastic lately. This is a good topic.

True. But hyperbole and CAPITAL LETTERS, plus !!! will tend to bring on the sarcasm.

 

[redman]

someone can feel free to ck my math:4.40 forty=18.6 MPH4.50 forty=18.2 MPH4.60 forty=17.8 MPHyou cant just ignore a 40 time but there are times that I think people forget just how small a difference .10 is...but football is a game of inches and that .10 can easily be the difference between and INT or a TD

Is there any sport that is not ultimately a game of inches? The older I've gotten the more I've started to believe that that's among the most overused cliches in sports, at least as it is meant to imply smaller margin for error in one sport over another.