Warren Buffett Offers 1 Billion Dollar Reward for Perfect Bracket (1 Viewer)

[tjnc09]

How sick would you be if they got everything right except one of the buzzer beater games (like Dayton OSU)?

 

[fantasycurse42]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

 

[Otis]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

5M/10M? Would have to be retirement money to pass up a shot at 1B and fame.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

5M/10M? Would have to be retirement money to pass up a shot at 1B and fame.

The expected (coin-flip) value of a perfect bracket after 48 games would be around $30,500. Presumably no one would pay more than that.

 

[pollardsvision]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

5M/10M? Would have to be retirement money to pass up a shot at 1B and fame.

The expected (coin-flip) value of a perfect bracket after 48 games would be around $30,500. Presumably no one would pay more than that.

You didn't factor in the fame.

 

[Sarnoff]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

Warren Buffet said he'd offer to buy out any perfect bracket at the Final Four for $100mil.

EV is $125mil, so you're taking a $25mil haircut to get the locked in payout. ($125m at even money over 3 games doubles after each... 250/500/1bil).

 

[icecat4270]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

Warren Buffet said he'd offer to buy out any perfect bracket at the Final Four for $100mil.

EV is $125mil, so you're taking a $25mil haircut to get the locked in payout. ($125m at even money over 3 games doubles after each... 250/500/1bil).

Is there anybody who wouldn't take that buyout? It seems insanely dumb not to. Not that anybody will get that far.

 

[Chaos Commish]

anybody left?

3

 

[Wooderson]

Now 0 left.

Well we gave it a run,.

 

[pollardsvision]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

Warren Buffet said he'd offer to buy out any perfect bracket at the Final Four for $100mil.

EV is $125mil, so you're taking a $25mil haircut to get the locked in payout. ($125m at even money over 3 games doubles after each... 250/500/1bil).

Is there anybody who wouldn't take that buyout? It seems insanely dumb not to. Not that anybody will get that far.

I assume almost anybody would. Which means the chances Buffett would ever end up paying out a billion on this thing are essentially nothing.

 

[Fennis]

I'm filling out my bracket after each round

 

[shuke]

Crazy, first round isn't even over yet.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I know they'd never do it but what are the odds of getting the final 15 games (Sweet 16) all correct? That would be a "better" contest for people to have a chance. How often would someone go 15-0 in that game? Could be a contest similar to The Show perfect game thing.

1 in 2^15 (based on coin-flip odds) = 1 in 32,768

The idea isn't to give someone a chance - the idea was to get hype and attention at which they have succeeded greatly. I bet the insurance premium they paid on this wasn't even all that high.

-QG

I assumed the idea was to get millions of people to turn over their e-mail addresses in exchange for the cost of a very small insurance premium against the microscopic odds someone hit the 1/9.2Q shot.

Yeah - that's the attention they wanted - people's e-mail box/texting

-QG

 

[Sarnoff]

Quicken Loans already has my email, phone, and house address, so I didn't care about filling out the form.

 

[hagmania]

And then there was one...

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/2030973

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Doesn't look like he's eligible.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I assumed the idea was to get millions of people to turn over their e-mail addresses in exchange for the cost of a very small insurance premium against the microscopic odds someone hit the 1/9.2Q shot.

I think insurance is the biggest part of Berkshire Hathaway's business, so I doubt they'd buy a policy from a third party. But I haven't read anything about that...

 

[Christo]

 

[flapgreen]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

Warren Buffet said he'd offer to buy out any perfect bracket at the Final Four for $100mil.

EV is $125mil, so you're taking a $25mil haircut to get the locked in payout. ($125m at even money over 3 games doubles after each... 250/500/1bil).

It better be one damn good haircut.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I assumed the idea was to get millions of people to turn over their e-mail addresses in exchange for the cost of a very small insurance premium against the microscopic odds someone hit the 1/9.2Q shot.

I think insurance is the biggest part of Berkshire Hathaway's business, so I doubt they'd buy a policy from a third party. But I haven't read anything about that...

IIRC it's not actually Buffet that's offering the million, he's just insuring it and publicizing it. But I could definitely have that wrong.

ETA: Looking it up it appears to be Quicken Loans that's offering the $1b. So I'm pretty sure this is a really cheap way to land 15m e-mail addys. Even $100,000 for the insurance a ridiculously big # actuarially) would be a good price to pay for the e-mail addresses ($6.67/thousand).

Would have been bigger marketing win for Quicken if the press hadn't latched onto Buffet's involvement and they'd gotten all the PR.

 

[lod01]

You've got a perfect bracket at the end of the weekend, how much to sell ownership of it?

Perfect bracket going into the final 4, what's your price? Obviously no casino will take the action you need to hedge.

Warren Buffet said he'd offer to buy out any perfect bracket at the Final Four for $100mil.

EV is $125mil, so you're taking a $25mil haircut to get the locked in payout. ($125m at even money over 3 games doubles after each... 250/500/1bil).

Is there anybody who wouldn't take that buyout? It seems insanely dumb not to. Not that anybody will get that far.

If you are not already super rich, no.

 

[lod01]

I was 15 for 16 in one. Dream ended at 11/11 lost with Oklahoma.

You are still in the running for $100k though.

 

[Fennis]

I assumed the idea was to get millions of people to turn over their e-mail addresses in exchange for the cost of a very small insurance premium against the microscopic odds someone hit the 1/9.2Q shot.

I think insurance is the biggest part of Berkshire Hathaway's business, so I doubt they'd buy a policy from a third party. But I haven't read anything about that...

IIRC it's not actually Buffet that's offering the million, he's just insuring it and publicizing it. But I could definitely have that wrong.

ETA: Looking it up it appears to be Quicken Loans that's offering the $1b. So I'm pretty sure this is a really cheap way to land 15m e-mail addys. Even $100,000 for the insurance a ridiculously big # actuarially) would be a good price to pay for the e-mail addresses ($6.67/thousand).

Would have been bigger marketing win for Quicken if the press hadn't latched onto Buffet's involvement and they'd gotten all the PR.

Buffett would not disclose the premium that Quicken Loans Chairman Dan Gilbert agreed to pay to Berkshire to cover the potential payout.

"Dan says it is too much and I say it's too little," he told CNN's Poppy Harlow.

The prize was being insured by Berkshire.

 

[grateful zed]

is it to late to get in this?

 

[tjnc09]

is it to late to get in this?

Probably still couldn't get a perfect bracket