Chase Stuart said:
I'm getting more and more confused when I read your posts. I still don't know why you brought up Alex Smith.
I didn't say Palmer wasn't a good #1 pick; he's been a very good#1 pick. We just don't know if he'll end up as a good #1 pick. I don't understand what's difficult about this. It's got nothing to do with talent and everything to do with career length. I don't see the need to rush to judgment.
As for Testaverde, HOF worthy he's not, but I did rank him as the
52nd best QB of all time.
I do not think that it is so difficult. At this point he is a good #1 pick for various reasons.You use the argument that he hasn't been around long enough to see if he "ends up" as one, well, let us look at it...
Who in that draft could end up being the "better" #1 pick? Look at the "redraft" article and tell me who in that group could possibly beat him out in another 5 years (or 10). This pretty much ends the argument right there, but I'll humor you with the longevity issue.
I look it almost like grading periods. He has gotten no worse than an A grade for his first 4 years, so he is going to need 4 years of F's just to be considered an "average pick". That is not likely. I think the career length thing only becomes a factor when a QB takes a long time to develop or stars his career really slow (again, Alex smith). If the QB comes out of the gate like Palmer, then there should be no argument, unless he destroys his career (ala vick) or quits suddenly (ala ricky williams).
As for "rush to judgement", 4 years ain't a rush to judgement, considering we judge RBs within 2 years, WRs within 3, and Linemen within 2 as to whetehr they are busts or finds.