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Was Carson Palmer worth the #1 overall pick in 2003? (1 Viewer)

Was Carson Palmer worth the #1 overall pick in 2003?

  • Yes, definitely

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes, but barely

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No, but close

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Not at all

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Too early to tell

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
Chase Stuart said:
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :goodposting: First four seasons:
Code:
Comp	 Att	Comp%	Yards	 YPA	 TD	  TD%   Int	 Int%Bledsoe	1310	2379	55.1%	14642	6.15	 80	3.36%	73	3.07%Palmer	 1305	2036	64.1%	14899	7.32	104	5.11%	63	3.09%
Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
 
Chase Stuart said:
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :goodposting: First four seasons:
Code:
Comp	 Att	Comp%	Yards	 YPA	 TD	  TD%   Int	 Int%Bledsoe	1310	2379	55.1%	14642	6.15	 80	3.36%	73	3.07%Palmer	 1305	2036	64.1%	14899	7.32	104	5.11%	63	3.09%
Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
Drew Bledsoe threw for 4,555 yards his second year in the league and made the Pro Bowl. He took his team to the Super Bowl in his fourth year, and made the Pro Bowl. He then made the Pro Bowl in his fifth year, too.Bledsoe was pretty much considered on the level of Palmer after five seasons. It's easy to say in retrospect that Bledsoe was meh, but that's exactly my point. Who's to say we won't argue in ten years that Carson Palmer made one playoff game in his first five seasons, and he put up great numbers only because of his stud WRs? Is that likely? No. But stranger things have happened.I'm pretty anti-Bledsoe, but his reputation back in the mid-'90s was sky high.
 
Chase Stuart said:
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :yawn: First four seasons:

Comp Att Comp% Yards YPA TD TD% Int Int%Bledsoe 1310 2379 55.1% 14642 6.15 80 3.36% 73 3.07%Palmer 1305 2036 64.1% 14899 7.32 104 5.11% 63 3.09%Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
Drew Bledsoe threw for 4,555 yards his second year in the league and made the Pro Bowl. He took his team to the Super Bowl in his fourth year, and made the Pro Bowl. He then made the Pro Bowl in his fifth year, too.

Bledsoe was pretty much considered on the level of Palmer after five seasons. It's easy to say in retrospect that Bledsoe was meh, but that's exactly my point. Who's to say we won't argue in ten years that Carson Palmer made one playoff game in his first five seasons, and he put up great numbers only because of his stud WRs? Is that likely? No. But stranger things have happened.

I'm pretty anti-Bledsoe, but his reputation back in the mid-'90s was sky high.
I don't recall Bledsoe being universally considered a top 3 QB, as Palmer is now. Young, Elway, Marino, Favre, and possibly Kelly were all more well regarded than Bledsoe. I recall Bledsoe being a guy that threw the ball a LOT but never made any special plays that turned your head. He was atrocious in that Super Bowl run, too.

 
Here's a list of all the QB that have been drafted first overall since 1960. It's too late tonight to dig into any numbers on these guys, but it sets the data set for comparisons . . .

JaMarcus Russell

Alex Smith

Eli Manning

David Carr

Michael Vick

Tim Couch

Peyton Manning

Drew Bledsoe

Jeff George

Troy Aikman

Vinny Testaverde

Steve Young* (Special draft)

John Elway

Steve Bartkowski

Jim Plunkett

Terry Bradshaw

Joe Namath

Terry Baker

Roman Gabriel (Gabriel was drafted as the #1 and #2 picks in the 1962 draft. I'd love to hear the story behind how that happened.)

 
Chase Stuart said:
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :confused: First four seasons:

Comp Att Comp% Yards YPA TD TD% Int Int%Bledsoe 1310 2379 55.1% 14642 6.15 80 3.36% 73 3.07%Palmer 1305 2036 64.1% 14899 7.32 104 5.11% 63 3.09%Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
Drew Bledsoe threw for 4,555 yards his second year in the league and made the Pro Bowl. He took his team to the Super Bowl in his fourth year, and made the Pro Bowl. He then made the Pro Bowl in his fifth year, too.

Bledsoe was pretty much considered on the level of Palmer after five seasons. It's easy to say in retrospect that Bledsoe was meh, but that's exactly my point. Who's to say we won't argue in ten years that Carson Palmer made one playoff game in his first five seasons, and he put up great numbers only because of his stud WRs? Is that likely? No. But stranger things have happened.

I'm pretty anti-Bledsoe, but his reputation back in the mid-'90s was sky high.
I don't recall Bledsoe being universally considered a top 3 QB, as Palmer is now. Young, Elway, Marino, Favre, and possibly Kelly were all more well regarded than Bledsoe. I recall Bledsoe being a guy that threw the ball a LOT but never made any special plays that turned your head. He was atrocious in that Super Bowl run, too.
Who says Palmer is considered a top 3 QB? In saying that, you are obviously slotting Peyton and Brady ahead of him. So you are saying that Palmer is universally considered to be better than Brees and Romo? I disagree. Some would rank Roethlisberger higher. And, while at different points in their careers, Favre clearly would be ranked ahead of Palmer in this type of discussion, since Palmer is unlikely to ever reach Favre's accomplishments (who is, besides Peyton?). I'm in your camp on this issue, but you are exaggerating here.
 
Heck yeah.
Figured so. However, a seemingly intelligent FBG staffer isn't convinced yet so I thought it necessary to see if I'm missing something here.
I'm not sure what the confusion is, but let me state it again:1) Through four seasons as a starter, Palmer has been very good, and worthy of being a #1 pick.2) A good #1 pick will deliver more than four good seasons as a starter.3) Therefore, we don't know if Palmer will turn out to have been a very productive #1 pick yet.
Wow, Chase, cannot disagree with you more...Palmer has been everything he should have been since the day he got there. Solid QB, Solid Student of the game, and someone who works on his game to get better. Now going with the "4 season's as starter" nonsense just comes from the fact that Kitna held him off for a year to start his career (unlike Peyton who got the ball from day 1).A better question may have been "Kitna + some other player at #1" vs. Palmer, but I think maybe only 4 teams in the NFL have a better QB under center this year than the Bengals.
Chase used the word yetHe's not necessarily disagreeing with you guys
 
Chase Stuart said:
Gatorman said:
Chase Stuart said:
I'm getting more and more confused when I read your posts. I still don't know why you brought up Alex Smith.

I didn't say Palmer wasn't a good #1 pick; he's been a very good#1 pick. We just don't know if he'll end up as a good #1 pick. I don't understand what's difficult about this. It's got nothing to do with talent and everything to do with career length. I don't see the need to rush to judgment.

As for Testaverde, HOF worthy he's not, but I did rank him as the 52nd best QB of all time.
I do not think that it is so difficult. At this point he is a good #1 pick for various reasons.You use the argument that he hasn't been around long enough to see if he "ends up" as one, well, let us look at it...

Who in that draft could end up being the "better" #1 pick? Look at the "redraft" article and tell me who in that group could possibly beat him out in another 5 years (or 10). This pretty much ends the argument right there, but I'll humor you with the longevity issue.

I look it almost like grading periods. He has gotten no worse than an A grade for his first 4 years, so he is going to need 4 years of F's just to be considered an "average pick". That is not likely. I think the career length thing only becomes a factor when a QB takes a long time to develop or stars his career really slow (again, Alex smith). If the QB comes out of the gate like Palmer, then there should be no argument, unless he destroys his career (ala vick) or quits suddenly (ala ricky williams).

As for "rush to judgement", 4 years ain't a rush to judgement, considering we judge RBs within 2 years, WRs within 3, and Linemen within 2 as to whetehr they are busts or finds.
I agree Palmer has an A grade so far. I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too, but I don't think much of him. He's not a bust, but he's not an elite QB.

I agree with you that Palmer is more likely than not going to end up as a favorable pick. But that's not inconsistent with what I've been saying all along.
Noted, and the Bledsoe example is a good one. Still, I think that Palmer's floor will be as another bledsoe, and bledsoe's "meh" is also accounted for by what Brady did (kind of the same way dungy was regarded when Chucky came in and won a SB with tampa)
 
Roman Gabriel (Gabriel was drafted as the #1 and #2 picks in the 1962 draft. I'd love to hear the story behind how that happened.)
Not a big story; just #1 to the NFL and #2 to the AFL. That sort of stuff happened pretty regularly before the common draft.For example, Namath was the #1 pick to the Jets in the AFL. The Giants had the #1 pick that year, but most believe didn't take Namath because they feared the huge backlash in NY of being the "second team" if Namath signed with the Jets.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=388

1964-65: Joe Namath, the highly regarded quarterback prospect, leads Alabama to the National Championship. He is drafted by the NFL’s Cardinals, but signs with the Jets, a decision that sends shock waves through both leagues. He’s given the largest contract in the history of professional sports, and known as the $427,000 man. Rumor has it that the Giants, who had owned the first pick in the NFL draft that season, passed on drafting Namath to avoid the risk of losing him to the Jets. Former Jets coach Walt Michaels claims that “St. Louis was the patsy for the Giants. They just couldn’t stand the publicity if they lost him.” Namath is reported to have said that the Cardinals asked him if he’d play for the Giants. The large contract given to Namath helped pave the way towards the NFL’s acceptance of the start-up league. The following year the leagues would have their respective champions play (which made the AFL happy), and the year after that, the two teams would have a common draft (which made the NFL owners’ accountants happy).
 
Heck yeah.
Figured so. However, a seemingly intelligent FBG staffer isn't convinced yet so I thought it necessary to see if I'm missing something here.
I'm not sure what the confusion is, but let me state it again:1) Through four seasons as a starter, Palmer has been very good, and worthy of being a #1 pick.2) A good #1 pick will deliver more than four good seasons as a starter.3) Therefore, we don't know if Palmer will turn out to have been a very productive #1 pick yet.
Um, yeah ok...and you're the same guy who says David Garrard is on par with Carson Palmer.... :confused: /taken:with:a:grain:of:salt
 
Chase Stuart said:
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :rolleyes: First four seasons:

Comp Att Comp% Yards YPA TD TD% Int Int%Bledsoe 1310 2379 55.1% 14642 6.15 80 3.36% 73 3.07%Palmer 1305 2036 64.1% 14899 7.32 104 5.11% 63 3.09%Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
Drew Bledsoe threw for 4,555 yards his second year in the league and made the Pro Bowl. He took his team to the Super Bowl in his fourth year, and made the Pro Bowl. He then made the Pro Bowl in his fifth year, too.

Bledsoe was pretty much considered on the level of Palmer after five seasons. It's easy to say in retrospect that Bledsoe was meh, but that's exactly my point. Who's to say we won't argue in ten years that Carson Palmer made one playoff game in his first five seasons, and he put up great numbers only because of his stud WRs? Is that likely? No. But stranger things have happened.

I'm pretty anti-Bledsoe, but his reputation back in the mid-'90s was sky high.
I don't recall Bledsoe being universally considered a top 3 QB, as Palmer is now. Young, Elway, Marino, Favre, and possibly Kelly were all more well regarded than Bledsoe. I recall Bledsoe being a guy that threw the ball a LOT but never made any special plays that turned your head. He was atrocious in that Super Bowl run, too.
Who says Palmer is considered a top 3 QB? In saying that, you are obviously slotting Peyton and Brady ahead of him. So you are saying that Palmer is universally considered to be better than Brees and Romo? I disagree. Some would rank Roethlisberger higher. And, while at different points in their careers, Favre clearly would be ranked ahead of Palmer in this type of discussion, since Palmer is unlikely to ever reach Favre's accomplishments (who is, besides Peyton?). I'm in your camp on this issue, but you are exaggerating here.
Fair enough. I recall debating with friends about Palmer vs Brees as the 3rd best QB last off-season, and I suppose after this past season, Romo and Roethlisberger have crept into discussion. Favre obviously is out since he's retired. My real point being a case could easily be made for Palmer as the 3rd best QB, while there's no way you could place Bledsoe any higher than 5th at the same point in his career and likely he was closer to 6 or 7, which would put him in today's hodge-podge of Hasselbeck, McNabb, Rivers, Eli, and Bulger. Good, but not great. Palmer is much more closer to great.

 
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If you can't say Palmer was worth his pick because it hasn't been long enough, then I guess you can't say someone like Cedric Benson is a bust because of the [remote] possibility that he lands with a team and becomes a starting RB over the next 7 years.

This entire thread has just been semantical tail chasing. It would be best if we all just let it die.

 
I don't agree that it's so far fetched to assume that in 20 years, we'll look back on Palmer's career and say "meh". Drew Bledsoe started out his career really well too,
While I understand your overall viewpoint, it's comments like these that make us all go :lmao: First four seasons:
Code:
Comp	 Att	Comp%	Yards	 YPA	 TD	  TD%   Int	 Int%Bledsoe	1310	2379	55.1%	14642	6.15	 80	3.36%	73	3.07%Palmer	 1305	2036	64.1%	14899	7.32	104	5.11%	63	3.09%
Palmer was clearly superior in Comp%, YPA, and TD%. Bledsoe started 'meh' and continued to be 'meh' throughout his career. Palmer started 'wow'. There's no comparison.
Drew Bledsoe threw for 4,555 yards his second year in the league and made the Pro Bowl. He took his team to the Super Bowl in his fourth year, and made the Pro Bowl. He then made the Pro Bowl in his fifth year, too.Bledsoe was pretty much considered on the level of Palmer after five seasons. It's easy to say in retrospect that Bledsoe was meh, but that's exactly my point. Who's to say we won't argue in ten years that Carson Palmer made one playoff game in his first five seasons, and he put up great numbers only because of his stud WRs? Is that likely? No. But stranger things have happened.I'm pretty anti-Bledsoe, but his reputation back in the mid-'90s was sky high.
I always thought the high point of Bledsoe's career was taking a pass-first team with a lousy defense to the playoffs in his 2nd season in '94. Palmer has already done that and in the proccess - played better in 1 play against Pittsburgh than Bledsoe did all game against Cleveland. The '96 NE team was pretty stacked. Regardless of what his reputation was after that season, he basically handed the ball off to Curtis Martin against Pittsburgh and then did nothing against a Jacksonville defense that had been torched by Denver & Buffalo the previous two weeks.
 
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Who went after him in the draft that would've been worthy of the #1 in hindsight? I don't know the answer and don't want to look it up. Is Hakeem Olajuwan in 1984? A truly great player, but MJ was drafted a couple picks later?
I know it's not football, but since you asked I will answer. Of course Hakeem was worth the #1 pick in 1984. He showed that if you could surround him with talent, then he could lead you to a championship. I'm not even going to try to argue that he was better than MJ, but I don't think there was any Bulls title team that Hakeem could not have won a title on if you replaced MJ with him. You typically don't need to surround a center with as much help to win, and I think Hakeem proved that. He had less help on each one of his title teams, compared to MJ.As fas as the poll question, QB is arguably the games most important position. If you can get a franchise QB you take one.

 

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