Was Ryan Leaf a "Franchise QB" when he was drafted? (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

Looking back the only 2 QBs I can recall not having question marks with their ability to be a franchise QB were Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch. One could argue Couch was plagued by injuries and poor management. However, it seems Ryan was given every chance to be successful.

Now, how do we categorize franchise QB? I think its fair and reasonable to call Alex Smith a franchise QB as he is helping his team win games. Peyton, Eli, Vick, Cam, Bradford, etc all QBs who help their teams win games.

So, did we know Ryan Lead wasnt going to be a franchise QB? If so, can we use that info to know Luck or RGIII wont be?

 

[Donsmith753]

Looking back the only 2 QBs I can recall not having question marks with their ability to be a franchise QB were Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch. One could argue Couch was plagued by injuries and poor management. However, it seems Ryan was given every chance to be successful.

Now, how do we categorize franchise QB? I think its fair and reasonable to call Alex Smith a franchise QB as he is helping his team win games. Peyton, Eli, Vick, Cam, Bradford, etc all QBs who help their teams win games.

So, did we know Ryan Lead wasnt going to be a franchise QB? If so, can we use that info to know Luck or RGIII wont be?

Spoiler

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think Leaf was believed to have had all the tools necessary to be a franchise QB - it was his "head" that ultimately did him in. I don't recall as to whether Leaf was a known headcase during the pre-draft build up - but both Luck and Griffin are known to be highly intelligent and of sound mind otherwise.

 

[Steel Dillo]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

 

[MDSkinner]

When Leaf was drafted (#2 behind Peyton Manning) there was certainly debate about whether or not he could be the number 1 overall based on his Physical abilities. However, it was always pretty clear that Manning was the better football guy to Leaf even if he could not run as fast of a 40.

So that said, I am not sure what you take from that other than I would wager that it is for reasons like that, that Luck is the lock #1 overall this year. He seems like a football guy through and through who happens to also have all the tools (like Manning was).

In terms of what it takes to be a franchise QB, for me I kind of define it as a guy who has the ability to carry his team and make them a competitor even with a surrounding cast that is less than stellar. I don't consider Alex Smith that (though I suppose when he was coming out of college that seemed possible) and I have a tough time saying for sure that Bradford or Cam are that (Cam certainly looks like he is heading that direction). But that is just my definition. Luck and RGIII both look like they have that potential.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Russell, Harrington, Akili Smith, Vince Young, etc.

 

[massraider]

People may choose to have selective memories, but I remember that draft very well. Manning was not a runaway clear winner, at least not from the draftniks and ESPN talking heads. The fans were talking, a lot, about Manning's big game performances, vs. Florida, I think.

There is a pretty well-knows story from Polian about how he asked both QBs what they will do if they are drafted #1. Peyton said fly to Indy, meet the coaches, get started, exactly what you'd expect. Leaf said he would host a Vegas trip for his buddies. Which I believe he actually did.

I am not sure how much we can use from that particular case to determine if RGIII or Luck is a franchise QB.

At this point, if I am trying to predict a QBs future, I am looking for three things:

1. Accuracy. It has been the most important component for a QB for a long time.

2. Smarts, football IQ, willingness to study.

3. An organization I trust. This has a lot more to do with a QBs success than I think people realize. Would Tom Brady be a Hall of Famer if he had David Carr's career? Would Joe Montana? If a team has the right coaches in place, the right plan, it makes a major difference. Did Alex Smith just so happen to improve when Harbaugh took over? I don't happen to think so.

Having said all that, I think people should be pretty excited about Luck and RGIII. They both have the first two attributes, both have shown intelligence, and the arm isn't a question, for either one. RGIII's organization remains to be seen, but Luck, I have to think the Colts understand how important continuity is for him.

 

[JAA]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Russell, Harrington, Akili Smith, Vince Young, etc.

Carr is another good one, same with Joey Harrington. That said, Hou was aweful those years, really putrid.Akiki, Young, and Russel were thought by a lot, including myself, to not be franchise QBs. How Al Davis couldnt see it, I will never understand

 

[az_prof]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Yes. People assumed he was a "sure" thing. There are a lot more QBs who fit this category of "the draft establishment dubs them a sure thing" and they fail.

 

[jurb26]

People may choose to have selective memories, but I remember that draft very well. Manning was not a runaway clear winner, at least not from the draftniks and ESPN talking heads. The fans were talking, a lot, about Manning's big game performances, vs. Florida, I think.

Funny, many are still talking about that now as it relates to his NFL career.

 

[massraider]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Sure. No one thought the Texans were making a horrible mistake, the way a lot thought the Raiders were making with Russell.

Just because he wasn't on the level of Luck, doesn't mean people didn't think he was a franchise QB.

Sam Bradford does as well. We heard a lot of 'best QB prospect in x number of years" talk leading up to the draft, and this was the year after Stafford. There were doubters, sure, but man, not too many. Stafford and Sanchez--both of them should be included.

 

[massraider]

People may choose to have selective memories, but I remember that draft very well. Manning was not a runaway clear winner, at least not from the draftniks and ESPN talking heads. The fans were talking, a lot, about Manning's big game performances, vs. Florida, I think.

Funny, many are still talking about that now as it relates to his NFL career.

I will always think the Colts went the Shula/Marino route--they went to a soft, finesse team, on both sides of the ball. Solid organization, but they got smacked in the mouth too many times.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

not sure if it was Irsay or Polian that said they intereviewed both of course and they asked the question what will you do right after your drafed. Ryan said something to the effect "i'm gonna go get my boys and party" and Peyton replied "i'll be on a plane within the hour with a playbook in my hand on my way to you". Then of course he gave his famous quote "if you pass on me i'm gonna kick your butt for the next 10years". the colts knew

 

[FavreCo]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

The ******* is still collecting a million $ paycheck and now has a superbowl ring. Unbeleivable for a guy that sucked so bad.Leaf was guy with a brain issue. Talent but....

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Sure. No one thought the Texans were making a horrible mistake, the way a lot thought the Raiders were making with Russell.

Just because he wasn't on the level of Luck, doesn't mean people didn't think he was a franchise QB.

Sam Bradford does as well. We heard a lot of 'best QB prospect in x number of years" talk leading up to the draft, and this was the year after Stafford. There were doubters, sure, but man, not too many. Stafford and Sanchez--both of them should be included.

Carr had some doubters from his funky release and the track record of Houston QB's

 

[FavreCo]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Sure. No one thought the Texans were making a horrible mistake, the way a lot thought the Raiders were making with Russell.

Just because he wasn't on the level of Luck, doesn't mean people didn't think he was a franchise QB.

Sam Bradford does as well. We heard a lot of 'best QB prospect in x number of years" talk leading up to the draft, and this was the year after Stafford. There were doubters, sure, but man, not too many. Stafford and Sanchez--both of them should be included.

Carr had some doubters from his funky release and the track record of Houston QB's

Dude just flat out sucked. When Kubiak got hired and got his first taste of this hack, he blasted Carr for not knowing something basic about QB'ing. I remember the comment was something like 'You've been in the league x years, how can you not know that?'

 

[massraider]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Sure. No one thought the Texans were making a horrible mistake, the way a lot thought the Raiders were making with Russell.

Just because he wasn't on the level of Luck, doesn't mean people didn't think he was a franchise QB.

Sam Bradford does as well. We heard a lot of 'best QB prospect in x number of years" talk leading up to the draft, and this was the year after Stafford. There were doubters, sure, but man, not too many. Stafford and Sanchez--both of them should be included.

Carr had some doubters from his funky release and the track record of Houston QB's

If Carr had gone to Houston, I would have agreed with you.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

People may choose to have selective memories, but I remember that draft very well. Manning was not a runaway clear winner, at least not from the draftniks and ESPN talking heads. The fans were talking, a lot, about Manning's big game performances, vs. Florida, I think. There is a pretty well-knows story from Polian about how he asked both QBs what they will do if they are drafted #1. Peyton said fly to Indy, meet the coaches, get started, exactly what you'd expect. Leaf said he would host a Vegas trip for his buddies. Which I believe he actually did. I am not sure how much we can use from that particular case to determine if RGIII or Luck is a franchise QB.At this point, if I am trying to predict a QBs future, I am looking for three things:1. Accuracy. It has been the most important component for a QB for a long time. 2. Smarts, football IQ, willingness to study. 3. An organization I trust. This has a lot more to do with a QBs success than I think people realize. Would Tom Brady be a Hall of Famer if he had David Carr's career? Would Joe Montana? If a team has the right coaches in place, the right plan, it makes a major difference. Did Alex Smith just so happen to improve when Harbaugh took over? I don't happen to think so.Having said all that, I think people should be pretty excited about Luck and RGIII. They both have the first two attributes, both have shown intelligence, and the arm isn't a question, for either one. RGIII's organization remains to be seen, but Luck, I have to think the Colts understand how important continuity is for him.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I guess I've always been of the opinion that Carr got the crap beat out of him so badly that he never had a chance. The Texans never were able to put a respectable line in front of him, and it very well may have killed any kind of respectable career he could have had. Whether or not he would have excelled with another franchise is debatable.

 

[Joe Summer]

As I recall, most experts considered both Manning and Leaf to be franchise quarterbacks. Sure, Manning was almost universally considered to be the superior quarterback -- just as Luck is considered to be superior to RG3 -- but almost all of the experts considered Leaf to be a solid consolation prize.

NOBODY dared to predict that Leaf would be a bust.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

few people remember that Leaf went 2-0 his rookie year and looked really good until a fateful trip into arrowhead and then it was all flushed right down the toilet

 

[Crippler]

Pretty funny that Ryan Leaf went 1st in my 2 QB league ahead of Peyton that year because of the hype machine. So I would say most felt he was a franchise QB. I do relate that to here where owners in our league have talked about Griffin going ahead of Luck in our draft. I think that would be a silly move.

 

[RUSF18]

What about David Carr? Does he belong in this discussion?

Sure. No one thought the Texans were making a horrible mistake, the way a lot thought the Raiders were making with Russell.

Just because he wasn't on the level of Luck, doesn't mean people didn't think he was a franchise QB.

Sam Bradford does as well. We heard a lot of 'best QB prospect in x number of years" talk leading up to the draft, and this was the year after Stafford. There were doubters, sure, but man, not too many. Stafford and Sanchez--both of them should be included.

I remember the Bradford hype really building post-Combine, or more specifically, after his pro day workout. During the season, people were questioning if he would even be a 1st rounder after missing the year to injury and also due to the spread offense he was playing in. Then his pro day came and there were anonymous quotes from scouts saying things along the lines of it being "the greatest workout ever seen".

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

As I recall, most experts considered both Manning and Leaf to be franchise quarterbacks. Sure, Manning was almost universally considered to be the superior quarterback

I seem to remember a whole lot of people at the time saying Leaf was a better choice than Manning.

 

[Tony Soprano]

I guess I've always been of the opinion that Carr got the crap beat out of him so badly that he never had a chance. The Texans never were able to put a respectable line in front of him, and it very well may have killed any kind of respectable career he could have had. Whether or not he would have excelled with another franchise is debatable.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

[massraider]

As I recall, most experts considered both Manning and Leaf to be franchise quarterbacks. Sure, Manning was almost universally considered to be the superior quarterback

I seem to remember a whole lot of people at the time saying Leaf was a better choice than Manning.

Me too. The irrational hate of Peyton started young.When people talk about Luck being the best prospect since Manning, they are giving themselves some 20/20 hindsight. If you go based off of just consensus/hype/public perception, Luck was a much better/hyped talent coming out of college, and probably biggest/best QB prospect since Elway. Elway's college rep may never be topped, he had one of the best arms ever, definitely the best ever at the time, and was a running QB the way few had ever seen. Plus, he went to Stanford, and had a coaching pedigree. He had no flaws.

 

[Buckna]

I guess I've always been of the opinion that Carr got the crap beat out of him so badly that he never had a chance. The Texans never were able to put a respectable line in front of him, and it very well may have killed any kind of respectable career he could have had. Whether or not he would have excelled with another franchise is debatable.

Heavily debatable. Kubiak thought he could rehabilitate him but quickly realized Carr was beyond saving. Whether that was due to happy feet, bad habits he picked up his first few seasons or he could just never handle the game is a big "what if?" question. There were quite a few threads and articles that examined that a large percentage of the # of sacks that Carr took were often his fault. I remember in particular that Carr had a tendency to be flushed out of the pocket easily and often scrambled out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage. There were a lot of locker room statements that Carr wasn't much of a leader, wasn't much of a football study or loved the game and that he had been insulated most of his life by his dad who at one point was banned from attending Texans practices because of his interfering.He certainly had no help those first few seasons. But to say they didn't try to put pieces around him is pretty off the mark. He had a good runningback in Dom Davis, he had Andre Johnson. The year after Carr left, the # of sacks given up dropped from 43 to 22 with little change in the offensive line.

 

[NYGiantsGuitar]

My memory is a little cloudy, but I do recall that there was a bit of a debate before the draft between Peyton and Leaf on who was the guy to take. I mean Leaf seemed like he had all the tools to be a great QB coming out of college....I think though for the most part when a team drafts a QB in the 1st round( or at least top 10) they are projecting him to be a "Franchise QB".

I thought David Carr was gonna be all time QB when he got drafted, same with Byron Leftwhich. Never thought Aaron Rodgers was gonna be anything special. Some guys work out, a lot don't. You pray for good scouting, and a hopefully the stars to align when you are picking a QB in the first round.

 

[Dexter Manley]

As I recall, most experts considered both Manning and Leaf to be franchise quarterbacks. Sure, Manning was almost universally considered to be the superior quarterback

I seem to remember a whole lot of people at the time saying Leaf was a better choice than Manning.

Yea, there was definitely a big debate between the 2 as to who was the better qb coming out. Generally speaking, most thought Leaf had the superior physical tools, talent, and higher ceiling while Manning was more pro ready and a had a higher floor. The biggest knock on Manning was that he couldn't win the big game, as he never beat Florida and got destroyed by Nebraska in his final college game (the bcs title game). The other thing which really drove the Leaf hype train is that he basically carried WSU by himself - they didn't have a lot of offensive talent around him, as compared to Peyton at UT which was loaded with nfl talent (i.e. Peerless Price, Jamal Lewis, etc.).

 

[Marauder]

There were some people who had Leaf ranked ahead of Manning (but not a lot as I recall). Almost everyone agreed that Manning was the safer choice and I remember a lot of people having major questions about Leaf's character. One of them was Joe Bryant. I think this was back in the days of RSFF before FBG but I vividly remember Joe saying he wouldn't touch Leaf because of character issues.

 

[azgroover]

Found some SI analyses from the time. Seems to coincide with what I remember. Leaf's upside was huge, whereas Peyton was perceived to be already as good as he'd ever get.

Leaf

Leaf appears to be the hot QB in this draft, and he led WSU to a storybook season...He is a physically imposing QB with great size and strength....he is very sturdy and durable in the pocket, and is a surprisingly good athlete for his size...He has a strong arm and shows good touch, and can change up the speed on his passes...He has good feet, but is not really a scrambler. However, he can stand in and take the big hits....He is a very naturally gifted player, but could improve on his throwing mechanics, although it is not a major problem....There are no physical or athletic limitations to hold Leaf back from becoming a great NFL QB. However, there appears to be some minor nagging questions in the area of maturity and his mental approach to the game. He is perceived as not always an easy guy to work with, and he tends to beat to his own drummer...As good as he is, he can have some streaks on the field where he looks like he has forgotten everything he has been taught...There seems to be a nagging question here that something might be missing, but it may be hard to verbalize it...However, Leaf made all the right moves at the end of his season when he declared for the NFL draft...Unless he turns some teams off in individual interviews between now and the draft, he should have no problems....Nobody will question his physical abilities, and it is not outlandish to think that he could be the first pick of the draft, instead of Peyton Manning....There is a huge upside with Leaf, and it is conceivable that he could be one of the best young QB’s in the game in 2-3 years...His ability to play as physical as he does and take the hits that will obviously come, when playing for a team that obviously doesn’t have a very good OL, will help him get over the tough times as a team builds around him.

Peyton

Manning is probably the most prepared QB to enter the NFL draft in several years.. He has had a storybook college career, and has been in a top level program with excellent coaching, and he has maturity and great intangibles to go along with his natural skills.. He should be able to pick up the mental aspects of the game early on the NFL level, and should play very quickly. He has great overall field vision. He is a fierce competitor, and all of his mechanics are very solid. He has good arm strength, but not necessarily a “gun” that you might expect from a QB at the top of the draft.. He has adequate mobility and good overall AA, although he is not a scrambler by nature. He has done an excellent job of getting the most out of his abilities, but he is not quite as natural a player as Leaf. One question that some NFL scouts have is the question “will he get any better?”. At times he gives the appearance of being a self-made player, and sometimes those types of players don’t always go on to great NFL careers. In Manning’s case, he may be a solid and productive NFL QB, but he may not have Hall of Fame type skills, but it certainly won’t be for lack of effort.. He has probably been the most scouted player in the draft in recent years, and because that NFL teams tend to look too much at potential flaws, instead of accepting him for what he is, a great college QB that is on his way to an outstanding NFL career.

Check out the SI Top 100. They had Peyton as the 4th best player in the draft.Too bad Wadsworth couldn't stay healthy.

 

[Abraham]

David Carr had no business going #1

 

[duaneok66]

Found some SI analyses from the time. Seems to coincide with what I remember. Leaf's upside was huge, whereas Peyton was perceived to be already as good as he'd ever get.

Leaf

Leaf appears to be the hot QB in this draft, and he led WSU to a storybook season...He is a physically imposing QB with great size and strength....he is very sturdy and durable in the pocket, and is a surprisingly good athlete for his size...He has a strong arm and shows good touch, and can change up the speed on his passes...He has good feet, but is not really a scrambler. However, he can stand in and take the big hits....He is a very naturally gifted player, but could improve on his throwing mechanics, although it is not a major problem....There are no physical or athletic limitations to hold Leaf back from becoming a great NFL QB. However, there appears to be some minor nagging questions in the area of maturity and his mental approach to the game. He is perceived as not always an easy guy to work with, and he tends to beat to his own drummer...As good as he is, he can have some streaks on the field where he looks like he has forgotten everything he has been taught...There seems to be a nagging question here that something might be missing, but it may be hard to verbalize it...However, Leaf made all the right moves at the end of his season when he declared for the NFL draft...Unless he turns some teams off in individual interviews between now and the draft, he should have no problems....Nobody will question his physical abilities, and it is not outlandish to think that he could be the first pick of the draft, instead of Peyton Manning....There is a huge upside with Leaf, and it is conceivable that he could be one of the best young QB’s in the game in 2-3 years...His ability to play as physical as he does and take the hits that will obviously come, when playing for a team that obviously doesn’t have a very good OL, will help him get over the tough times as a team builds around him.

Peyton

Manning is probably the most prepared QB to enter the NFL draft in several years.. He has had a storybook college career, and has been in a top level program with excellent coaching, and he has maturity and great intangibles to go along with his natural skills.. He should be able to pick up the mental aspects of the game early on the NFL level, and should play very quickly. He has great overall field vision. He is a fierce competitor, and all of his mechanics are very solid. He has good arm strength, but not necessarily a “gun” that you might expect from a QB at the top of the draft.. He has adequate mobility and good overall AA, although he is not a scrambler by nature. He has done an excellent job of getting the most out of his abilities, but he is not quite as natural a player as Leaf. One question that some NFL scouts have is the question “will he get any better?”. At times he gives the appearance of being a self-made player, and sometimes those types of players don’t always go on to great NFL careers. In Manning’s case, he may be a solid and productive NFL QB, but he may not have Hall of Fame type skills, but it certainly won’t be for lack of effort.. He has probably been the most scouted player in the draft in recent years, and because that NFL teams tend to look too much at potential flaws, instead of accepting him for what he is, a great college QB that is on his way to an outstanding NFL career.

Check out the SI Top 100. They had Peyton as the 4th best player in the draft.Too bad Wadsworth couldn't stay healthy.

outstanding post.

Since we are here at this time of the year, most of us (if not all) are hardcore FF players and/or NFL fans. We consume endless amounts of draft material. Unfortunately, most of it focuses on the tangible things - speed, accuracy, strength, weight, etc. Not enough time is devoted to the intangibles (will to win, work ethic, mindset, the priority football is to a draftee's life). The reason is obvious, the intangibles are inherently difficult to discern and to quantify. Still, I think the media (and us) could do a much better job on focusing on the intagibles. Otherwise, the above two QB blurbs wouldn't look so ridiculous 14 years later.

 

[pecorino]

As I recall, most experts considered both Manning and Leaf to be franchise quarterbacks. Sure, Manning was almost universally considered to be the superior quarterback

I seem to remember a whole lot of people at the time saying Leaf was a better choice than Manning.

count me in that group. i remember the heated debates: big arm (upside) versus precision (steadiness). when the colts said that they knew for sure who they were going to take, i assumed it would be leaf because you can't teach a guy to have a big arm. the knock on peyton was a perception that his arm was only serviceable.neither the first nor last time i was wrong.