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Was the WR Class of 2009 (1 Viewer)

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
hopefully we can get a well rounded picture, including statistical, as well as scouting-type observation/insight/commentary.

below from last years week 15 column*... (recycling in the interest of efficiency... and because my observations haven't changed since then)...

a caveat/proviso... as parcells may have said... lets not enshrine them in canton just yet... but all these guys look like the real deal, with legit star potential... than again, the class with fitz, roy williams, reggie williams, michael clayton & lee evans (was 49ers supreme bust also in that class & highly regarded?) looked pretty good while still in the post-rookie after-glow... yet all but fitz & evans ended up disappointing, and a few completely washed out, and were utter, abject failures...

have a hard time seeing crabtree, nicks, harvin, maclin & britt deviating from their ascendant arc & trajectory... a few from this group could be at the inflection point of much bigger things in the future... my draft history honker tells me this class smells different. :goodposting:

there have been bigger individual efforts (boldin & clayton stand out in past decade, among best ever), but in aggregate, the collective showing last year was extremely impressive (if not unprecedented, not too many other classes this good spring immediately to mind?)...

* "Class of 2009 - WR Shock Troops

Has a chance to be a historically good class. With the exception of DHB (Derelict Hands Backfire, as a draft pick), the other five first rounders all look like keepers and perennial starters.

Michael Crabtree, SF, 1.10, Texas Tech (6'1" 215)

37-473-2 in eight games (#63 WR Overall and #11 Rookie WR)

Storied career in just two brilliant seasons at Texas Tech. Has some parallels with Larry Fitzgerald (college resume, questions about speed, phenomenal athleticism). Has already put concerns about his level of competition, functional game speed, and a foot injury to rest. Has emerged quickly despite his high profile, lengthy and ill-advised holdout leading to severely tempered expectations for his rookie campaign. Attacks the ball like few WRs since Jerry Rice. Flashes exceptional competitiveness, toughness and strength for his position, as well as outstanding burst into and out of his breaks, natural route running ability and potentially special balance, body control, field awareness, instincts and RAC skills. Seemingly destined for eventual top 10 potential.

Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 1.19, Missouri (6'0" 200)

46-623-4 (#38 WR Overall and #5 Rookie WR)

For the second year in a row (with luminously talented soph sensation, DeSean Jackson), a rookie PHI WR has defied expectations with initial success in what had been a morass for home grown talent at the position in recent seasons (remember Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston?). Maclin couples great initial quickness and big time deep speed with the open field moves of one of the best kick returners in the nation last season. Has succeeded at a relatively high level despite having somewhat raw route running skills, primarily on the strength of formidable natural talent. Came out early, and has the work ethic and personal makeup to get a lot better. Jackson and Maclin are already one of the best young WR tandems in the league, and will probably soon be one of the best duos period, without need for the age qualifier. The Eagles have a solid Plan B at QB in place with Kevin Kolb. Top 10-20 potential.

Percy Harvin, MIN, 1.22, Florida (5'11" 192)

48-681-6 (#20 Overall WR and Top Rookie WR)

The deserved favorite for Rookie of the Year. He has weaponized Favre (as Miles Austin has with Tony Romo), along with Sidney Rice. The description is overused, but he is a genuine threat to take the ball the distance every time he has the ball in his hands, whether from a reception, hand-off or return. Just scratching the surface of his full potential. Could be limited in mid-term by Favre's future retirement and vying for catches with Rice and Bernard Berrian. Long term - few limits given his supreme athletic gifts. For a player that spent a lot of time at RB while at Florida, has flashed relatively polished WR skills, including escaping the jam, separation and route running ability. Top 5-10 potential. Has as much upside as anybody on this list if he can avoid the character concerns and off-field transgressions that dogged him before the draft.

Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 1.29, North Carolina (6'1" 212)

38-685-6 (#24 Overall WR and #2 Rookie WR)

His hands are bigger than a junior league baseball mitt. Though not advertised as one of the fastest rookies (bust candidate DHB, Maclin and Harvin aren't just fast but have track star speed), he has deceptive, sneaky fast, competitive field speed, and has broken more big plays than any other rookie WR, with the possible exception of prohibitive ROY-favorite Harvin. The former North Carolina prodigy sports an impressive 18+ YPC average, and is rarely caught from behind. He was as advertised in terms of his already fully-formed, complete and pro-ready game. A Man-child that has at times looked like he has the capability for future dominance, with Pro Bowl-type natural talent and skill level. Even within an extraordinary class of WRs, he has managed to distinguish himself early. Could have eventual top 5-10 potential like Crabtree and Harvin, and in fact it wouldn't come as a huge surprise if he emerges as the top rookie from the class of 2009, given his incendiary start.

Kenny Britt, TEN, 1.30, Rutgers (6'3" 218)

38-642-3 (#40 Overall WR and #6 Rookie WR)

Best size of the group, and arguably the best size/speed combo among the top first rounders that have been successful (excluding DHB, who is a specimen physically, but also, alas, in terms of his upper body appendages that pass for arms/hands, appallingly and horrifically ill-suited for catching pigskins). A great intersection of BPA and team need at that juncture of the draft, as the Titans have seemingly needed a go to WR forever (one of the more conspicuous, glaring and chronic team positional holes across the league landscape for years). Fortuitous timing for him and his owners, as he arrived at the perfect time to leverage VYs reemergence and newfound relevance. Won't see a lot of two deep safety looks as long as Chris Johnson is running like his hair is on fire. Showed resiliency by making the climactic, game-winning catch in crunch time and under duress in the penultimate play of the epic 99 yard drive against the Cards. Top 10-20 potential.

Honorable Mention

Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace, Louis Murphy, Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Hartline and Mike Thomas."

 
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Let's wait until someone develops into a star (although it looks like Crabtree is well on his way). I think 2-3 years from now, a huge chunk of the Maclin/Britt/Harvin/Wallace/Nicks/Knox/Collie/etc guys will have faded back into obscurity. That always seems to be the way it goes.

 
my favorites from the group are probably nicks & harvin...

but i really like crabtree, maclin & britt (latter two very young, i think... britt may have been youngest player in the league last year, "trailed" slightly by beanie wells & lesean mccoy?)...

* to clarify that, i'd take crabtree first in dynasty startup... just my gut feeling is nicks could have a better career, and might present better value... harvin looks like he could be a bigger desean jackson... but crabtree the more clear "WR1"-type... in this respect, britt also imo already is clearly the most physically/athletically gifted & talented WR on roster... nicks, harvin and maclin are vying for receptions with as, or arguably in some cases, even more talented counterparts... steve smith, rice (plus berrian) & jackson...

than again, recent years have proven that two WRs can not only co-exist but both fluorish... see MIN (moss & carter), STL (holt & bruce), IND (harrison & wayne), CIN (johnson & housh), ARI (fitz & boldin), GB (jennings & driver)... as austin & bryant are expected to thrive in coming seasons (if kept together?)... in an increasingly passing-centric league, the only think better than one stud WR is two (or stud WR/TE combo like jackson/gates, white/t-gon & austin/witten)...

 
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It seems odd that Austin Collie (60-676-7) and Mike Wallace (39-756-6) only got honorable mention. What separates the top guys from these two other than draft position? It obviously isn't production.

 
:goodposting:

Wallace as only an honorable mention (considering his opportunity is even greater this season) is problematic to me.

 
Let's wait until someone develops into a star (although it looks like Crabtree is well on his way). I think 2-3 years from now, a huge chunk of the Maclin/Britt/Harvin/Wallace/Nicks/Knox/Collie/etc guys will have faded back into obscurity. That always seems to be the way it goes.
Totally agree. Guys start out with promising rookie seasons and fail to ever bud into a star all the time.I have little doubt that 3-4 years from now, half of these guys will barely be remembered.
 
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I really like three from this class - Crabby, Nicks, and Harvin. I think all three become stars.

The rest... we'll see.

 
This seems to happen every year now. 11 QBs with over 4000 yards in 09. Matt Ryan with the best rookie season ever. It's likely more a case of the passing game as a whole improving due to new emphasis on rules.

 
It seems odd that Austin Collie (60-676-7) and Mike Wallace (39-756-6) only got honorable mention. What separates the top guys from these two other than draft position? It obviously isn't production.
the article started by discussing the first round WRs, & i tacked them on at the end, because i thought it was worth mentioning that WRs taken after the 1st round did very well. too... no intent to slight them.incidentally, would you take collie ahead of crabtree or nicks in a dynasty draft?
 
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I really like three from this class - Crabby, Nicks, and Harvin. I think all three become stars. The rest... we'll see.
I think you got 2 of 3 right. Put me in the camp that Nicks is way overrated, often going in the mid 3rd round of dynasty startups. I believe he will be the fool's gold of this class.
 
I really like three from this class - Crabby, Nicks, and Harvin. I think all three become stars. The rest... we'll see.
I tend to agree, although I think "stars" might be stretching it with Nicks and Harvin. Crabtree is the only WR from the 2009 class that I would pay a king's ransom to get on my dynasty team. Some of the other guys are good, but not necessarily any more talented than someone you could get a lot cheaper.Of course a few of these guys will go the way of Rod Gardner, Charles Rogers, and Keary Colbert. I've been playing dynasty long enough to remember the days when Donte Stallworth and Ashley Lelie were ranked as consensus top 20 dynasty WRs. LOL.
 
a key is to try and discern patterns and unifying themes among busts like rogers and mike williams, and to a lesser extent, roy williams and stallworth...

in retrospect, i don't think some of these guys were known for having sterling work ethics (britt got a recent wake up call for poor offseason conditioning)...

so this might recommend digging more deeply on character & intangibles-type information...

certainly if you think crabtree, nicks, harvin or maclin are lazy or plagued by a poor work ethic, downgrade accordingly...

just breaking down their respective skill sets and games can be instructive...

nicks & harvin just looked much more polished and refined than, say stallworth...

compared to mike williams, a big separating factor is what scouts call suddenness...

and so on.

any of these guys COULD bust, but in addition to crabtree, nicks and harvin look can't miss to me (excepting injury or off-field transgressions, ala santonio holmes)... and i have high hopes for maclin and britt, as well (again, as far as the first rounders go - DHB not really in the discussion at the moment, based on the magnitude of his disappointment)...

 
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a key is to try and discern patterns and unifying themes among busts like rogers and mike williams, and to a lesser extent, roy williams and stallworth...in retrospect, i don't think some of these guys were known for having sterling work ethics (britt got a recent wake up call for poor offseason conditioning)...so this might recommend digging more deeply on character & intangibles-type information...certainly if you think crabtree, nicks, harvin or maclin are lazy or plagued by a poor work ethic, downgrade accordingly...just breaking down their respective skill sets and games can be instructive...nicks & harvin just looked much more polished and refined than, say stallworth...compared to mike williams, a big separating factor is what scouts call suddenness...and so on.any of these guys COULD bust, but in addition to crabtree, nicks and harvin look can't miss to me (excepting injury or off-field transgressions, ala santonio holmes)... and i have high hopes for maclin and britt, as well (again, as far as the first rounders go - DHB not really in the discussion at the moment, based on the magnitude of his disappointment)...
Looking for patterns is great in theory, but at some point in time you'll always run into a dead end. If anyone could really separate the busts from the successes, he wouldn't be playing fantasy football, he'd be making millions of dollars a year running an NFL front office. Some guys bust because of poor work ethic... but at the same time, plenty of guys have been great successes despite mediocre work ethics, and other guys have been colossal busts despite fantastic work ethics. What does it mean? Well, it means that work ethic is of vital importance... except in the cases where it isn't. Harvin's migraines might be a huge deal... unless they aren't. Nicks' competition might stifle his growth... unless it doesn't. Wallace might not be able to handle tougher coverages. Collie might not be able to hold off Gonzalez. I've yet to discover any magical formula for eliminating risk. The best method I've found is to temper my enthusiasm and hedge my bets. I've also started relying more on NFL front offices (creating my "paid professionals generally know what they're doing" default standpoint). If anyone's getting close to figuring out the factors that result in players busting, it's going to be the professionals in front office. I think that Nicks is probably a lower bust risk than Wallace because Nicks was a first rounder, and that sort of stuff matters. It's not the be-all end-all, but it's a decent place to start. Even with that, though, I'd lay money on a huge chunk of these rookies failing to ever live up to the promise that we see in them today.
 
EBF said:
jwb said:
I really like three from this class - Crabby, Nicks, and Harvin. I think all three become stars. The rest... we'll see.
I tend to agree, although I think "stars" might be stretching it with Nicks and Harvin. Crabtree is the only WR from the 2009 class that I would pay a king's ransom to get on my dynasty team. Some of the other guys are good, but not necessarily any more talented than someone you could get a lot cheaper.Of course a few of these guys will go the way of Rod Gardner, Charles Rogers, and Keary Colbert. I've been playing dynasty long enough to remember the days when Donte Stallworth and Ashley Lelie were ranked as consensus top 20 dynasty WRs. LOL.
Yea, by stars I generally meant FF WR 2-ish. Plax / Coles level guys - guys you definitely want, but aren't in a class by themselves. And of the three, I agree, Crabby has the shot to go higher and get into that "solid top 5" category.
 
I've also started relying more on NFL front offices (creating my "paid professionals generally know what they're doing" default standpoint). If anyone's getting close to figuring out the factors that result in players busting, it's going to be the professionals in front office. I think that Nicks is probably a lower bust risk than Wallace because Nicks was a first rounder, and that sort of stuff matters. It's not the be-all end-all, but it's a decent place to start.
this is one kind of what i call a pattern (correlation with pedigree)... if all patterns ALWAYS run into dead ends, you might as well get a monkey & a dartboard.there can be intersecting patterns (DHB didn't have as mature or developed a game as crabtree & nicks, so i didn't target him JUST because he was drafted higher)... the "topology" of this pattern of patterns can be tangled and not simply hierarchical.do you really completely toss out all information about work ethic and character... point taken that sometimes lazy people succeed & hard working people fail, but that seems drastic?
 
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based off what I have seen from them in the NFL, Wallace might be in my top 3 (along with Crabs/Nicks). He deserves higher than honorable mention. He's ridiculously fast and can beat anyone deep, but runs surprising good routes as well.

I do think that this class has some very good WR's.

 
I think it will be, I thought last year was the year to load up on WR's so I did. Harvin, Tate, and Wallace in both. Collie, Dillard, and Deon Butler in one. I didn't have a chance to get Crabtree or Nicks in either and screwed up a startup this season in which I could've gotten Nicks. I got Mike Thomas, Harvin, Tate, and Dillard though.

 
I have hitched my dynasty wagon to the 09' WRs by collecting Crabtree, Nicks and Maclin.

Out of these I see Maclin as the safest bet. I know that a lot can change when determining what the rest of career will look like after one season and also I might be looking to closely at situation, but I see Maclin being the #1b option in Philly for a long time which in ppr especially should make Maclin a solid starter for years to come. While DJackson will be collecting more of the home run receptions, Maclin will have a large share of the passes meant to move the chains making him a 80 catch per year type player. And with Phillys passing game, he could be a top 15-20 guy.

 
I've also started relying more on NFL front offices (creating my "paid professionals generally know what they're doing" default standpoint). If anyone's getting close to figuring out the factors that result in players busting, it's going to be the professionals in front office. I think that Nicks is probably a lower bust risk than Wallace because Nicks was a first rounder, and that sort of stuff matters. It's not the be-all end-all, but it's a decent place to start.
this is one kind of what i call a pattern (correlation with pedigree)... if all patterns ALWAYS run into dead ends, you might as well get a monkey & a dartboard.there can be intersecting patterns (DHB didn't have as mature or developed a game as crabtree & nicks, so i didn't target him JUST because he was drafted higher)... the "topology" of this pattern of patterns can be tangled and not simply hierarchical.do you really completely toss out all information about work ethic and character... point taken that sometimes lazy people succeed & hard working people fail, but that seems drastic?
Of course I don't completely toss it out. Look at it this way, though: if a WR with poor work ethic is being drafted in the first round, then that must mean that all of his other attributes are way above and beyond those of an average first round WR (in order for the team to overlook his work ethic). Sure, I still penalize him for his bad work ethic... but at the same time, I have to reward him for all the other superlative traits that outshone his poor work ethic in the first place. If two WRs get drafted around the same spot in the draft, and one of them has a much better work ethic than the other, it's probably a fair assumption that the other WR outshines the first WR by an equally large amount in some other category- maybe "suddenness" or "polish", to use two other variables you brought up.I'd never draft someone based strictly on draft position, but I do think that if you were going to look at just one variable and see how it correlated to success, draft position would dominate every other variable, simply because it's a composite variable. It takes into account every other variable and then boils it down to a single number.
 
I view the 2009 class like this:

Elite Talents-guys who will I believe will play in multiple pro bowls

Harvin

Crabtree

Very Good-guys who will be solid starters and may play in a pro bowl

Nicks

Britt

Maclin

Wallace

Good-guys who have starter ability but will likely be average starters

Knox

Massoquoi

Collie

and then the rest

I feel very strongly that, as Harvin becomes more refined as a WR, he'll be a a top-5 guy. I agree that he'll basically be a pumped up DeSean Jackson.

I like Crabtree a bit, but I don't see the same upside I see with Harvin. I see more of a Marques Colston type in Crabtree. Low-end #1 or high end #2. I think he's better than Colston, but the lack of pure speed makes it difficult for me to project him as a top-5 guy.

All in all, I feel this was a very strong draft class, and one of the best ones in recent years. Probably the best since 2006 and will most likely be better than the class of 2010. So while not the best of the best, its at least the best in a 4 year span.

 
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Using travdogg's tier (+1), I see them like this:

Elite Talent - Will play in multiple pro bowls

Crabtree - No denying the talent, regardless of the situation

Very Good-guys who will be solid starters and may play in a pro bowl

Nicks - I could see a career like Greg Jennings.

Harvin - Reggie Wayne v2.0

Maclin - See above

Good-guys who have starter ability but will likely be average starters

Britt - I see a little of Roy Williams in Britt, and that scares me.

Wallace - I like what I've seen, but I liked what I saw in Nate Washigton also.

Knox - If his knee heals properly, I could see him being the best of this tier and maybe jumping to the next.

Butler - Added Butler simply on potential alone... but he is in a prime situation.

Decent players, but won't be much more than a WR3 in fantasy.

Massoquoi - Missing consistent hands/concentration will cause owners headaches. 1 good game, 3 bad ones

Collie - Lost in the shuffle in the Colts WR corps and Manning won't be there forever.

Full disclosure: I drafted Crabtree, Britt, Butler, Wallace & Knox in a 12 team Zealots league last year.

 
SSOG said:
I've also started relying more on NFL front offices (creating my "paid professionals generally know what they're doing" default standpoint). If anyone's getting close to figuring out the factors that result in players busting, it's going to be the professionals in front office. I think that Nicks is probably a lower bust risk than Wallace because Nicks was a first rounder, and that sort of stuff matters. It's not the be-all end-all, but it's a decent place to start.
this is one kind of what i call a pattern (correlation with pedigree)... if all patterns ALWAYS run into dead ends, you might as well get a monkey & a dartboard.there can be intersecting patterns (DHB didn't have as mature or developed a game as crabtree & nicks, so i didn't target him JUST because he was drafted higher)... the "topology" of this pattern of patterns can be tangled and not simply hierarchical.do you really completely toss out all information about work ethic and character... point taken that sometimes lazy people succeed & hard working people fail, but that seems drastic?
Of course I don't completely toss it out. Look at it this way, though: if a WR with poor work ethic is being drafted in the first round, then that must mean that all of his other attributes are way above and beyond those of an average first round WR (in order for the team to overlook his work ethic). Sure, I still penalize him for his bad work ethic... but at the same time, I have to reward him for all the other superlative traits that outshone his poor work ethic in the first place. If two WRs get drafted around the same spot in the draft, and one of them has a much better work ethic than the other, it's probably a fair assumption that the other WR outshines the first WR by an equally large amount in some other category- maybe "suddenness" or "polish", to use two other variables you brought up.I'd never draft someone based strictly on draft position, but I do think that if you were going to look at just one variable and see how it correlated to success, draft position would dominate every other variable, simply because it's a composite variable. It takes into account every other variable and then boils it down to a single number.
i pretty much agree with this...though pedigree in itself doesn't factor in what a risk lawrence phillips was.it is still important to look at prospects on a case by case basis (not that you said anything to the contrary, just wanted to make that explicit for the purposes of this conversation)...
 
In 2010, Crabtree (and Nicks to an extent) is a guy you can draft as your WR3 and wind up with WR15-20 numbers.

I'm not so sure about Harvin without Favre. Harvin with Tavaris/Sage throwing to him is a big step down.

 
In 2010, Crabtree (and Nicks to an extent) is a guy you can draft as your WR3 and wind up with WR15-20 numbers.
For redraft purposes, I'd put a significant chunk of change that Nicks outscores Crabtree, even though Crabtree is more likely to go earlier in drafts.
 
In 2010, Crabtree (and Nicks to an extent) is a guy you can draft as your WR3 and wind up with WR15-20 numbers.
For redraft purposes, I'd put a significant chunk of change that Nicks outscores Crabtree, even though Crabtree is more likely to go earlier in drafts.
I think they'll end up pretty close, I'd give the slight edge to Crabtree myself, but I don't think either are being drafted as #3 WRs.
 

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