David Dodds
Administrator
I had hoped to pen the Perfect WCOFF Draft and time just got away from me.
Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):
http://www.footballguys.com/05wcoff_ranges.phpWCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF Average Draft Position
WCOFF - Number Drafted
These articles are from 2005, but the scoring has not changed at all so the data should still be very accurate.
I will try my best to outline the biggest pieces of the strategy.
You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of 1000+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired effort. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:
- Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs waste a roster spot. If you backup LT with Turner, are you really going to win the league if LT breaks a leg and is out for the year?
- Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 5 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 5 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Manning - 12 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Manning - 24 overall (WCOFF Rules)
This effect is even more evident when you examine where Carson Palmer ends up (48th with WCOFF scoring). Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a third rounder for someone like Gates will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10. I would look at the TE position in round 7 or later.
- Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I looked at a bunch of winning rosters and believe the winning teams had this in common:
1. Winning teams usually took a RB in the first round (Sometimes your draft position dictates going WR in round 1, but unfortunately those teams usually did not fare well). After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs and 3WRs.
2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft (Maurice Jones Drew in 2006) so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
3. The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB
4. Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.
5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
7. Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.
8. Playoff teams usually took advantage of the Thursday night stats (ie paying a slight premium for the studs from the early game and avoiding those players that stunk). Make sure RB Joseph Addai, TE Eric Johnson. WRs Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison and QB Peyton Manning move up your draftboards. If selecting some of these players gets you a week 1 win, that is indeed significant. The Sharks took Charlie Batch a few years ago after he lit up the scoreboard in a Thursday night game with the sole purpose of using him in week 1 and then dropping him.
9. All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR that catches a lot of balls over the redzone TD producer. Guys like Cotchery, Winslow excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs ever come, you could have an elite producer.
My top 12 (tweaked after the Thursday game results):
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Joseph Addai (gets the bump up because of the big game 1)
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Frank Gore
6. Larry Johnson
7. Willie Parker
8. Reggie Wayne (gets the bump up because of the huge game)
9. Steve Smith
10. Chad Johnson
11. Laurence Maroney
12. Terrell Owens
Generally, If I took a RB in round 1, I would look to grab WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
If I took a WR in round 1, I would look to take a RB in round 2 and a WR in round 3.
If Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs or Ahman Green were available in the 4th round I would select RB, else I would take another WR knowing that I am starting off with a subpar RB2.
In round 5 I would take either WR or RB to get my roster to be 3WRs and 2 RBs.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digging Deep:
I tried to analyze the players that I think could represent homeruns based on their draft position. I define a homerun as someone who performs so well that they immediately surpass one of your top 5 picks. I think it's critical to try and land a few of these on your team. If a couple hit, you should have an elite roster.
Quarterbacks that I would target:
Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Vince Young - Again I wouldn't look to grab a QB before round 7. But starting in the 8th if any of these are on the board, I would grab them. I think they all could easily surpass the ir ADP. If all are gone I would look to get Matt Scahaub a few rounds later.
RBs that could yield huge value (after round 5) - Homeruns or bust:
- LenDale White - He has been named the starter. The Titans originally let Chris Brown go before bringing him back. Travis Henry ran wild behind this OL last year. White is essentially an unknown commodity, but could yield big returns.
- Warrick Dunn - Still the starting RB despite everyone assuming Norwood would take over by now. His injury in the preseason dropped his stock considerably and now respresents good value.
- DeShaun Foster - He has also held off DeAngelo Williams for now. He has had a horrible injury history, but has looked solid in the preseason. The Panthers have implemented a zone blocking scheme which should benefit Foster.
- Brandon Jackson, GB - They drafted him to be the starter. He has been slow to pick up the blitzes and hasn't shown much in the preseason games, but someone has to be the strating RB in Green Bay
- Vernard Morency, GB - Injuries held him out of most of the preseason. He is in direct competition with Brandon Jackson.
- Leon Washington, NYJ - Thomas Jones is less than 100%. He has shown flashes, but would likely need Thomas to get injured to have huge value.
- Brian Leonard, StL - Looked great in the preseason, but is behind Steven Jackson. Should have some value early because of his receptions, but real value would be if Jackson went down to injury.
- Jerome Harrison, Cle - Jamal Lewis has lost more than a step. I won't be shocked to see Harrison be the starter at some point this season.
- Kenton Keith, Ind - He is on a high explosive offense. Addai has never been a featured back in his career (always in some sort of committee) so predicting an injury for Addai isn't too far of a reach considering his likely workload.
- Adrian Peterson, Chi - Not a big fan of Cedric Benson's game at all. But the Bears have a great OL. If Benson were to go down to injury, Peterson's value would skyrocket.
- Michael Turner, SD - The Burner just needs the chance to play. Logjammed behind the best back in the game puts this firmly in the homerun or bust category.
- Sammy Morris, NE - The Patriots expect to run the ball a lot grinding out the clock in close games. Maroney will be the primary ball-carrier provided he can stay healthy. But if Maroney were to miss time, Morris' value would be big.
- Tony Hunt, Phi - Westbrook always seems to be dinged up. So bet on him getting injured and go with the player that offers huge upside here. Hunt should already get the goal line work with a healthy Westbrook. His value would skyrocket if Westbrook went down for an extended period of time.
Swinging for the Fences Wide Receivers - Homeruns or bust (after 5 rounds):
- Santonio Holmes, Pit - I expect him to be the number 1 WR (over Hines Ward) this season for the Steelers. In an offense that wants to throw deeper passes, Holmes could emerge as a star this season.
- Bernard Berrian, Chi - He has emerged as the clear #1 WR in Chicago. Grossman is inconsistent, but not afraid to throw the ball and have Berrian run underneath it. Expect a lot of big plays from Berrian this year.
- DJ Hackett, Sea - Deion Branch is the bigger name, but Hackett might end up the year as the Seahawks' #1 WR. He is an outstanding redzone target.
- Ronald Curry, Oak - He is better than Jerry Porter right now and wil show it in the boxscore each week.
- Brandon Marshall, Den - Unknown situation with someone who has freakish athletic talent. It won't shock me when he becomes a major star in this league.
- Jacoby Jones, Hou - I saw enough on a few catches to realize he is special. On the one endzone play he absolutely changed direction in mid-air to snag the TD. Freakish athletic talent always finds itself on the field. He will be starting very soon.
- Demetrius Williams, Bal - In my opinion, he is already better than a declining Derrick Mason. It's just a matter of time before he is the starter opposite of Mark Clayton. He wil be a huge redzone target too.
- James Jones, GB - The question isn't if he passes Greg Jennings on the depth chart, but when. I suspect he will play a lot even as the #3 WR because of his speed.
- Dwayne Bowe, KC - Had he been healthier, he would likely already be starting over old man Kennison or Samie Parker. I expect his playing time will continue to improve each week.
- Patrick Crayton, Dal - I think Glenn will indeed miss a lot of time (maybe the whole season). Crayton looks ready to fill that role.
- Craig Davis, SD - He is already starting after a great training camp. In this offense, that opportunity could mean a lot.
Tight Ends:
Besides the usual suspects like Witten, I like these guys later in the draft:
- Owen Daniels, Hou - With dangerous wideouts for defenses to be worried about, Owens should be able to catch a lot of passes in the middle of the field.
- Marcedes Lewis, Jac - The Jaguars cutting Jermain Wiggins tells the story about how much they love Lewis. He is completely flying under the radar, but should have a very productive season.
- Bo Scaife, Ten - Vince Young always seems to know where he is at on the field. I guess it's all those years playing together at the University of Texas.
- Eric Johnson, NO - Worse case you bank his huge week 1 game.
Good luck to everyone in the WCOFF. Hope the balls all bounce your way.
Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):
http://www.footballguys.com/05wcoff_ranges.phpWCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF Average Draft Position
WCOFF - Number Drafted
These articles are from 2005, but the scoring has not changed at all so the data should still be very accurate.
I will try my best to outline the biggest pieces of the strategy.
You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of 1000+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired effort. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:
- Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs waste a roster spot. If you backup LT with Turner, are you really going to win the league if LT breaks a leg and is out for the year?
- Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 5 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 5 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Manning - 12 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Manning - 24 overall (WCOFF Rules)
This effect is even more evident when you examine where Carson Palmer ends up (48th with WCOFF scoring). Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a third rounder for someone like Gates will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10. I would look at the TE position in round 7 or later.
- Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I looked at a bunch of winning rosters and believe the winning teams had this in common:
1. Winning teams usually took a RB in the first round (Sometimes your draft position dictates going WR in round 1, but unfortunately those teams usually did not fare well). After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs and 3WRs.
2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft (Maurice Jones Drew in 2006) so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
3. The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB
4. Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.
5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
7. Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.
8. Playoff teams usually took advantage of the Thursday night stats (ie paying a slight premium for the studs from the early game and avoiding those players that stunk). Make sure RB Joseph Addai, TE Eric Johnson. WRs Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison and QB Peyton Manning move up your draftboards. If selecting some of these players gets you a week 1 win, that is indeed significant. The Sharks took Charlie Batch a few years ago after he lit up the scoreboard in a Thursday night game with the sole purpose of using him in week 1 and then dropping him.
9. All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR that catches a lot of balls over the redzone TD producer. Guys like Cotchery, Winslow excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs ever come, you could have an elite producer.
My top 12 (tweaked after the Thursday game results):
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Joseph Addai (gets the bump up because of the big game 1)
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Frank Gore
6. Larry Johnson
7. Willie Parker
8. Reggie Wayne (gets the bump up because of the huge game)
9. Steve Smith
10. Chad Johnson
11. Laurence Maroney
12. Terrell Owens
Generally, If I took a RB in round 1, I would look to grab WRs in rounds 2 and 3.
If I took a WR in round 1, I would look to take a RB in round 2 and a WR in round 3.
If Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs or Ahman Green were available in the 4th round I would select RB, else I would take another WR knowing that I am starting off with a subpar RB2.
In round 5 I would take either WR or RB to get my roster to be 3WRs and 2 RBs.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digging Deep:
I tried to analyze the players that I think could represent homeruns based on their draft position. I define a homerun as someone who performs so well that they immediately surpass one of your top 5 picks. I think it's critical to try and land a few of these on your team. If a couple hit, you should have an elite roster.
Quarterbacks that I would target:
Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Vince Young - Again I wouldn't look to grab a QB before round 7. But starting in the 8th if any of these are on the board, I would grab them. I think they all could easily surpass the ir ADP. If all are gone I would look to get Matt Scahaub a few rounds later.
RBs that could yield huge value (after round 5) - Homeruns or bust:
- LenDale White - He has been named the starter. The Titans originally let Chris Brown go before bringing him back. Travis Henry ran wild behind this OL last year. White is essentially an unknown commodity, but could yield big returns.
- Warrick Dunn - Still the starting RB despite everyone assuming Norwood would take over by now. His injury in the preseason dropped his stock considerably and now respresents good value.
- DeShaun Foster - He has also held off DeAngelo Williams for now. He has had a horrible injury history, but has looked solid in the preseason. The Panthers have implemented a zone blocking scheme which should benefit Foster.
- Brandon Jackson, GB - They drafted him to be the starter. He has been slow to pick up the blitzes and hasn't shown much in the preseason games, but someone has to be the strating RB in Green Bay
- Vernard Morency, GB - Injuries held him out of most of the preseason. He is in direct competition with Brandon Jackson.
- Leon Washington, NYJ - Thomas Jones is less than 100%. He has shown flashes, but would likely need Thomas to get injured to have huge value.
- Brian Leonard, StL - Looked great in the preseason, but is behind Steven Jackson. Should have some value early because of his receptions, but real value would be if Jackson went down to injury.
- Jerome Harrison, Cle - Jamal Lewis has lost more than a step. I won't be shocked to see Harrison be the starter at some point this season.
- Kenton Keith, Ind - He is on a high explosive offense. Addai has never been a featured back in his career (always in some sort of committee) so predicting an injury for Addai isn't too far of a reach considering his likely workload.
- Adrian Peterson, Chi - Not a big fan of Cedric Benson's game at all. But the Bears have a great OL. If Benson were to go down to injury, Peterson's value would skyrocket.
- Michael Turner, SD - The Burner just needs the chance to play. Logjammed behind the best back in the game puts this firmly in the homerun or bust category.
- Sammy Morris, NE - The Patriots expect to run the ball a lot grinding out the clock in close games. Maroney will be the primary ball-carrier provided he can stay healthy. But if Maroney were to miss time, Morris' value would be big.
- Tony Hunt, Phi - Westbrook always seems to be dinged up. So bet on him getting injured and go with the player that offers huge upside here. Hunt should already get the goal line work with a healthy Westbrook. His value would skyrocket if Westbrook went down for an extended period of time.
Swinging for the Fences Wide Receivers - Homeruns or bust (after 5 rounds):
- Santonio Holmes, Pit - I expect him to be the number 1 WR (over Hines Ward) this season for the Steelers. In an offense that wants to throw deeper passes, Holmes could emerge as a star this season.
- Bernard Berrian, Chi - He has emerged as the clear #1 WR in Chicago. Grossman is inconsistent, but not afraid to throw the ball and have Berrian run underneath it. Expect a lot of big plays from Berrian this year.
- DJ Hackett, Sea - Deion Branch is the bigger name, but Hackett might end up the year as the Seahawks' #1 WR. He is an outstanding redzone target.
- Ronald Curry, Oak - He is better than Jerry Porter right now and wil show it in the boxscore each week.
- Brandon Marshall, Den - Unknown situation with someone who has freakish athletic talent. It won't shock me when he becomes a major star in this league.
- Jacoby Jones, Hou - I saw enough on a few catches to realize he is special. On the one endzone play he absolutely changed direction in mid-air to snag the TD. Freakish athletic talent always finds itself on the field. He will be starting very soon.
- Demetrius Williams, Bal - In my opinion, he is already better than a declining Derrick Mason. It's just a matter of time before he is the starter opposite of Mark Clayton. He wil be a huge redzone target too.
- James Jones, GB - The question isn't if he passes Greg Jennings on the depth chart, but when. I suspect he will play a lot even as the #3 WR because of his speed.
- Dwayne Bowe, KC - Had he been healthier, he would likely already be starting over old man Kennison or Samie Parker. I expect his playing time will continue to improve each week.
- Patrick Crayton, Dal - I think Glenn will indeed miss a lot of time (maybe the whole season). Crayton looks ready to fill that role.
- Craig Davis, SD - He is already starting after a great training camp. In this offense, that opportunity could mean a lot.
Tight Ends:
Besides the usual suspects like Witten, I like these guys later in the draft:
- Owen Daniels, Hou - With dangerous wideouts for defenses to be worried about, Owens should be able to catch a lot of passes in the middle of the field.
- Marcedes Lewis, Jac - The Jaguars cutting Jermain Wiggins tells the story about how much they love Lewis. He is completely flying under the radar, but should have a very productive season.
- Bo Scaife, Ten - Vince Young always seems to know where he is at on the field. I guess it's all those years playing together at the University of Texas.
- Eric Johnson, NO - Worse case you bank his huge week 1 game.
Good luck to everyone in the WCOFF. Hope the balls all bounce your way.
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