Week 01 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Dacomish]

Thanks for doing this again @Chaka!

Week 1 my main question is at RB, (.5 PPR for RB's):

Breece Hall Vs Baltimore
or
AJ Dillon Vs Vikings

I'm leaning AJ right now as he is established within the system he plays and we more or less have an idea of his production. The Viking front is still pretty good against the run however.

Hall is a wildcard, he could blow up and continue on where he left off in college or he could go like 12 carries for 42 yards and 2 receptions....I may want to wait a week to see how his timeshare spreads out. Baltimore should on paper be better upfront.

Thoughts?

 

[Dacomish]

Need to pick two between

J. Williams vs Sea
E. Mitchell vs Chi
C. Sutton vs Sea
(Small league, everyone is stacked. So is my opponent, so I want to get this right). Thanks guys.

Taking off my homer glasses for a moment to see the real state of my beloved Hawks - My thoughts on the MNF game is Russ will want to throw the ball to show why he was worth so much money and also want to show the proverbial middle finger at Pete and Co in a revenge game, so I could actually see a 300 yard game and like 3 TD's in a told you so moment for the ages. I think Sutton will have a very good night (unfortunately) with like 8 catches for 140 yards and a TD, Russ will look his way alot against that hawks Def backfield.

J-Will will help seal the win on the ground, but how much does Gordon take away from that? Until you know for sure J-Will gets the bulk of the touches its hard to call.

Mitchell should at least for 1 week while healthy thrive in that offense vs the Bears.

I'd go Sutton/Mitchell....

 

[BobbyLayne]

Need to pick two between

J. Williams vs Sea
E. Mitchell vs Chi
C. Sutton vs Sea
(Small league, everyone is stacked. So is my opponent, so I want to get this right). Thanks guys.

presuming standard scoring?

• Williams is an auto start
• Between Mitchell and Sutton, it's close to a coin flip by many projections. I don't think it should be, Seattle has ranked 30th and 31st in passing yards allowed the last two seasons. Russ is gonna cook and Sutton might end up WR1 for the week. No harm in choosing Mitchell, he's got a plus matchup and should be a Top 24 back this week.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Thanks for doing this again @Chaka!

Week 1 my main question is at RB, (.5 PPR for RB's):

Breece Hall Vs Baltimore
or
AJ Dillon Vs Vikings

I'm leaning AJ right now as he is established within the system he plays and we more or less have an idea of his production. The Viking front is still pretty good against the run however.

Hall is a wildcard, he could blow up and continue on where he left off in college or he could go like 12 carries for 42 yards and 2 receptions....I may want to wait a week to see how his timeshare spreads out. Baltimore should on paper be better upfront.

Thoughts?

Hall might blow up in November and December, but unlikely before then. Brutal schedule the first half. Ravens were so-so on defense in 2021 but stout against the run, 3.8 YPC and 2nd fewest yards per game. Plus there's a good chance Michael Carter is featured more.

 

[Dacomish]

Thanks for doing this again @Chaka!

Week 1 my main question is at RB, (.5 PPR for RB's):

Breece Hall Vs Baltimore
or
AJ Dillon Vs Vikings

I'm leaning AJ right now as he is established within the system he plays and we more or less have an idea of his production. The Viking front is still pretty good against the run however.

Hall is a wildcard, he could blow up and continue on where he left off in college or he could go like 12 carries for 42 yards and 2 receptions....I may want to wait a week to see how his timeshare spreads out. Baltimore should on paper be better upfront.

Thoughts?

Hall might blow up in November and December, but unlikely before then. Brutal schedule the first half. Ravens were so-so on defense in 2021 but stout against the run, 3.8 YPC and 2nd fewest yards per game. Plus there's a good chance Michael Carter is featured more.

Thanks BL - that's along the same lines what I was thinking! Hall is the future for sure, Dillion is my early roll.

 

[Chaka]

Ok, I’ve got one:

PPR flex;
Breece Hall who might be the Jets RB2, or Brandon Aiyuk in the rain at Chicago?

You're a fan so I know you have read the off-season stuff about Lance & Aiyuk becoming besties. I'm high on Aiyuk this year. I think he could end the season as the 49ers WR1. However Lance hasn't earned the benefit of doubt, so until we actually see Lance throw the ball against live competition everything is a big question mark. Add in this feels like a very winnable game (i.e. running script) and I am bearish on Aiyuk this week. Weather doesn't concern me unless it's high, gusting wind.

Hall is also an unknown but it's at the RB position. He isn't dependent on a QB to get him the ball. Reports about Carter since TC have been glowing, but nothing bad has been said about Hall either. It was always going to be a committee, and the shiny new rookie will be a big part of it...for at least three quarters. If Baltimore is blowing them out maybe Carter gets more opps. But I'm not counting the Jets out. Flacco gets to start against his old team and something feels very off in Baltimore.

Hall>Aiyuk

 

[Chaka]

If I'm stashing lottery tickets, would you want Wilson, Davis-Price or Mason? Kyle never features the same RB two consecutive years and Mitchell doesn't strike me as particularly durable.

You're killing me with this question. In my redraft last Saturday I grabbed Mitchell as my RB3 and Mason as his backstop. Since then I've been diving into that question quite a bit.

My feeling today is if/when Mitchell misses time Wilson will absolutely be first man up. Shanny knows, loves & trusts Wilson and, in return Wilson has performed more than well enough. Heck, he's downright excelled at times.

We all know Wilson is also likely to miss time too so, what then?

If you have large rosters then flip a coin between TDP & Mason because there has been no real info to distinguish them other than speculation by guys who think they know how to break down film. Maybe they do, IDK.

I think the realistic outcome for 2022 is Mitchell & Wilson are available to start 13-16 games rendering both Mason & TDP mostly irrelevant but for the spot start, and we don't know which one will get it.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Thanks for giving your time to this Chaka

non-ppr

JSS @ Arizona

or

A.Brown @ Detroit

I obviously drafted Brown a few rounds higher but on reading about how tough Lions might be this year and Cards-Chiefs likely to be a shootout, got me thinking...

 

[sho nuff]

Non-PPR...doing a bit of a back and forth with my WR2 and Flex spots...

Gabe Davis
@LAR or Hollywood Brown vs KC

David Montgomery vs SF or Antonio Gibson vs Jax

My leans have been Gibson and Brown

 

[zamboni]

PPR league - 4 pts passing TD/1 point per 10 rushing yards

Lance (vs Bears) or Carr (vs Chargers)

Rushing upside/floor vs potential AFC West shootout

Thanks for doing this, Chaka

 

[Chaka]

Thanks in advance...


QB (4 pts passing TD; 6pts rushing TD 1pt/25 passing and bonus at 300 yds)
Burrow or Lawrence? Drafted Burrow as my starter but seriously considering Lawrence against WASH week # 1

FLEX (PPR; 1pt/10 yds gained rush or rec (not combo), bonus @ 100 rushing or receiving)
Renfrow? Penny? Mckissic? Kareem Hunt? Mondale Moore

Mostly debating between Renfrow (PPR) or Penny (TD) - - (but I really do like Mckissic but am not seriously considering that)

For context: RB = Taylor, Mitchell; WR = Allen; Thielen; TE = Andrews- open to any other suggested swaps...

I'm super high on Lawrence this year but IMO you're in a classic overthink spiral. It's gotta be Burrow man. He's just a far more complete player with far better weapons. Even if Lawrence outperforms this week you're still going to get steady numbers from Burrow. Lawrence has a much bigger range of downside outcomes without a higher ceiling.

Burrow>Lawrence

It comes down to Penny or Hunt for me.

When both Hunt & Chubb were healthy the first five games last season Hunt averaged 11 carries and 4 targets. In 2020 it was about 14 opportunities per game when both were on the field. And Hunt performs at a high level on that volume. Roughly 900 yards & 9 TDs in 12 games with Chubb in 2020 and 450 yards plus 5 TDs in 5 games with Chubb in 2021. He's a very good player and Stefanski uses him.

There is a lot not to like about Seattle in 2022 but one thing seems certain, if they have any chance at success they will need to run the ball effectively. Good news for Penny. Even better, with DK & Lockett opposing defenses can't overcommit to stopping the run. We all know the knock against Penny, but when he's on the field he produces. He has only started 6 games in his career but in those games he averages 16 opportunities for 110 yards and has 6TDs. And that includes the start where he left after 2 carries. In the 5 others it's 20 opportunities for 138 yards with 6TDs.

It's week one, Penny is healthy and I believe Walker III is out.

Penny>Hunt

 

[zamboni]

Thanks in advance...


QB (4 pts passing TD; 6pts rushing TD 1pt/25 passing and bonus at 300 yds)
Burrow or Lawrence? Drafted Burrow as my starter but seriously considering Lawrence against WASH week # 1

FLEX (PPR; 1pt/10 yds gained rush or rec (not combo), bonus @ 100 rushing or receiving)
Renfrow? Penny? Mckissic? Kareem Hunt? Mondale Moore

Mostly debating between Renfrow (PPR) or Penny (TD) - - (but I really do like Mckissic but am not seriously considering that)

For context: RB = Taylor, Mitchell; WR = Allen; Thielen; TE = Andrews- open to any other suggested swaps...

I'm super high on Lawrence this year but IMO you're in a classic overthink spiral. It's gotta be Burrow man. He's just a far more complete player with far better weapons. Even if Lawrence outperforms this week you're still going to get steady numbers from Burrow. Lawrence has a much bigger range of downside outcomes without a higher ceiling.

Burrow>Lawrence

It comes down to Penny or Hunt for me.

When both Hunt & Chubb were healthy the first five games last season Hunt averaged 11 carries and 4 targets. In 2020 it was about 14 opportunities per game when both were on the field. And Hunt performs at a high level on that volume. Roughly 900 yards & 9 TDs in 12 games with Chubb in 2020 and 450 yards plus 5 TDs in 5 games with Chubb in 2021. He's a very good player and Stefanski uses him.

There is a lot not to like about Seattle in 2022 but one thing seems certain, if they have any chance at success they will need to run the ball effectively. Good news for Penny. Even better, with DK & Lockett opposing defenses can't overcommit to stopping the run. We all know the knock against Penny, but when he's on the field he produces. He has only started 6 games in his career but in those games he averages 16 opportunities for 110 yards and has 6TDs. And that includes the start where he left after 2 carries. In the 5 others it's 20 opportunities for 138 yards with 6TDs.

It's week one, Penny is healthy and I believe Walker III is out.

Penny>Hunt

Agree 100% on Burrow and Penny. Ride the Penny wave while it lasts and Walker is out.

 

[Chaka]

PPR, rush attempts +0.2 each, need 1 FLEX out of:

Damien Harris @MIA
Jerry Jeudy @SEA
Chase Edmonds vs NEP
Darrell Henderson vs BUF
Melvin Gordon @SEA

Thanks!

+.2/rush & PPR? Interesting & a little weird. Hmmmmm...Allow it!

I'm bearish on the Patriots until I see what they do without McDaniels calling the offense. Plus it's 85 degrees with 75% humidity in Miami and Miami has a very good defense.

Can't go with Henderson IMO. I have him in my redraft and am optimistic, but too much is unknown and he had a soft tissue injury.

I can see rolling out Jeudy. From the TC reports I think Sutton is the 1A, maybe the outright 1. But I heard no real negative news about Jeudy and the passing pie in Denver should be easily big enough to support a legit WR2. Plus Jeudy could be the actual #1WR in Denver when the dust settles.

Denver looks to be in a very winnable game, which should give the running game a good chance to see some scoring opportunities and make no mistake about it, Gordon will still see plenty of touches. Possibly in a short yardage role.

But I still don't love the matchup in Seattle. Russ should cook but Pete is a sneaky mofo, this could end up a trap game, or at least a close game.

Honestly, Edmonds would be a no-brainer for me here IF he wasn't 'limited' with a groin yesterday. I think it is probably closer to a veteran rest day but really have no idea.

Yeah, this is a real tough call. I think you have to go with your gut. My gut says:

Jeudy>Gordon>Edmunds>Harris>Henderson

I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys lead the group this week.

 

[Chaka]

Need to pick two between

J. Williams vs Sea
E. Mitchell vs Chi
C. Sutton vs Sea
(Small league, everyone is stacked. So is my opponent, so I want to get this right). Thanks guys.

Did you draft my team? I have all three of them.

I have the luxury of starting all three but, since I have to choose I would have Mitchell as odd man out. I drafted him as my RB3, Javonte as my RB2 & Sutton as my WR2. I have to stick with those rankings.

Also, I am almost certain that starting a WR/RB from the same team actually provides more scoring stability than having a combo from separate teams.

Javonte>Sutton>Mitchell

 

[psychobillies]

OK, how about AJ Dillon vs E Mitchell? Full PPR.

TIA

 

[BobbyLayne]

Penny

He'd be my 2nd choice, but I'd be worried that the game script won't favor Penny if Denver gets way down. Isn't that when Carroll runs out Homer & Dallas for the 2nd half?

One thing to remember about using game script for lineup decisions is the predictive value. We oftentimes think a game is going to go a particular way and it totally doesn't (Week 8 CIN-NYJ is a fine example.) Of course we all know "any given Sunday", but the other thing about the predictive game script value is it does go the way we expect but not until the 4th. In which case the underdog abandons the run after the damage has been done, so regardless of us being correct about the outcome/spread, we miss the context of when that will happen.

(also looking over last year's box scores, there were 1-2 games with the outcome you describe but my sense is it was not often enough to call it predictive.)

Anyway, you can def find sites that have Renfrow higher in PPR. It's a good choice, love the player. I'm high on Denver this year but this is personal for the Seahawks at home. Could be closer than we are thinking. For the Raiders, I think McDaniels & Carr want to make a statement on how they intend to use Davante. Week 1 I'm looking for OCs who want to set the tone for the season. Love Renfrow in PPR and while it's rough trying to support three FF starters (Adams/Waller/Renfrow) in the passing game, I'm a believer. But maybe not as much week 1.

 

[Chaka]

Thanks for doing this again @Chaka!

Week 1 my main question is at RB, (.5 PPR for RB's):

Breece Hall Vs Baltimore
or
AJ Dillon Vs Vikings

I'm leaning AJ right now as he is established within the system he plays and we more or less have an idea of his production. The Viking front is still pretty good against the run however.

Hall is a wildcard, he could blow up and continue on where he left off in college or he could go like 12 carries for 42 yards and 2 receptions....I may want to wait a week to see how his timeshare spreads out. Baltimore should on paper be better upfront.

Thoughts?

This feels like a absolute slam dunk decision to me. Dillon will touch the ball a lot and we have no idea how Hall will be deployed.

Dillon>Hall

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Penny

He'd be my 2nd choice, but I'd be worried that the game script won't favor Penny if Denver gets way down. Isn't that when Carroll runs out Homer & Dallas for the 2nd half?

One thing to remember about using game script for lineup decisions is the predictive value. We oftentimes think a game is going to go a particular way and it totally doesn't (Week 8 CIN-NYJ is a fine example.) Of course we all know "any given Sunday", but the other thing about the predictive game script value is it does do the way we expect but not until the 4th. In which case the dog abandons the run after the damage has been done, so regardless of us being about the outcome/spread, we miss the context of when that will happen.

(also looking over last year's box scores, there were 1-2 games with the outcome you describe but my sense is it was not often enough to call it predictive.)

Anyway, you can def find sites that have Renfrow higher in PPR. It's a good choice, love the player. I'm high on Denver this year but this is personal for the Seahawks at home. Could be closer than we are thinking. For the Raiders, I think McDaniels & Carr want to make a statement on how they intend to use Davante. Week 1 I'm looking for OCs who want to set the tone for the season. Love Renfrow in PPR and while it's rough trying to support three FF starters (Adams/Waller/Renfrow) in the passing game, I'm a believer. But maybe not as much week 1.

All fair points.

Also, *if Seattle gets way down. Somehow I said Denver.

While I agree things could go unexpectedly in Seattle, I put a pretty high % chance that they don’t and it’s a Denver blowout.

Seattle is not a good team, they don’t have a good QB, and they don’t have a great defense. Denver does.

It’ll be fun to see how it goes down.

 

[Chaka]

Thanks for giving your time to this Chaka

non-ppr

JSS @ Arizona

or

A.Brown @ Detroit

I obviously drafted Brown a few rounds higher but on reading about how tough Lions might be this year and Cards-Chiefs likely to be a shootout, got me thinking...

Until I see that Jalen Hurts can deliver the ball with accuracy, hitting his WRs in stride, on the reg I am going to be down on AJ Brown and Devonta Smith (OTOH I would absolutely roll out Dallas Goedert).

Mahomes is just deadly accurate and I think people are sleeping a bit on Ju-Ju. Let's not forget the guy does have 1,400+ yard season under his belt, he has some talent. Maybe not as much as AJ but he can play for sure. I also think this game could be a shootout.

Despite AJ looking like an elite talent:

JuJu>AJ Brown

 

[Doubles]

Full ppr 10 team my flex choice is:

Mooney vs SF
Godwin vs Dal
Rhamondre vs Mia
Henderson vs Buf

12 team .5 ppr (start Brady over Lance right??? Or am I nuts? It’s 6 per pass and rush td)
Flex is Gibson vs Jax
Mooney vs SF
Toney vs Ten

 

[Chaka]

Non-PPR...doing a bit of a back and forth with my WR2 and Flex spots...

Gabe Davis
@LAR or Hollywood Brown vs KC

David Montgomery vs SF or Antonio Gibson vs Jax

My leans have been Gibson and Brown

(Completely uninteresting sidebar: My parents almost named me Gabriel, after Rams QB Roman Gabriel. Glad they didn't although I wish they had named me Roman. It's a powerful, masculine name with just a hint of hip-hop &/or pornstar)

IMO your gut is right on M.Brown. He's got the talent, he's the #1 guy for sure, he has a very good QB and a plus matchup. Let's see Gabe actually do something so we can actually justify all the hype. Let's not forget that four TD game was simply a bonkers, and truly awesome, outlier that didn't help a single, normal magic football team win anything. It's hard not to view it as a career high-water mark.

M.Brown>Gabe Davis

Montgomery & Gibson is a tougher call and, honestly it's a coin toss. Ultimately I agree with you on Gibson. It should be a plus matchup, although people shouldn't sleep on the Jags D with their first round talent up front, there isn't much competition for touches and, I have to imagine Gibson's pride took a big hit with all the Brian Robinson talk. Montgomery is a three down guy, but that offensive line is truly offensive (on paper) and SF should be a rough matchup for them.

Gibson>Montgomery

 

[Chaka]

PPR league - 4 pts passing TD/1 point per 10 rushing yards

Lance (vs Bears) or Carr (vs Chargers)

Rushing upside/floor vs potential AFC West shootout

Thanks for doing this, Chaka

Oooooohhh...interesting.

This one really comes down to your risk tolerance. It is very easy to argue that Lance could be Jalen Hurts 2.0, which is really all I need to say on him. That's his upside and his downside.

Carr looks like he has an opportunity to be more than a Steady-Eddie this year. A lot more. My biggest concern is the offensive line, which is a bottom five unit in the league and they're matched up against Joey Bosa and, oh yeah, Khalil Mack. Think Khalil has some extra motivation going on this week? Ya, I do. I see the Raiders offense as being defined by lots and lots of quick timing routes in the 5-8 yard range, trying to hit guys in stride and let them YAC. Carr's game is well suited to that so I think, despite the o-line and opposing DEs he will find some success. Maybe a floor of 250 & 1.5TDs with an upside of 300+ and 3TDs.

Yeah, this is a tough one. For me, and me alone, this week has a swing-for-the-fences feel. Every magic football team is 0-0 and losing won't be insurmountable, but if Lance carries you dat's gon' feel gooooooooood. And it will make the Niner game actually entertaining (or horribly frustrating) to watch.

No one will fault you for going with Carr, it's probably the "smarter" move, but I'm going with:

Lance>Carr

 

[Chaka]

OK, how about AJ Dillon vs E Mitchell? Full PPR.

TIA

Close one. For me this comes down to draft capital, assuming it's a redraft. You probably drafted Dillon first so you should probably roll him out.

I can absolutely see an argument for Mitchell with a plus matchup, shaky (potentially) passing game and he has performed at every opportunity. But Dillon looked like he was on the cusp of being special last year, the Packers RBs should be heavily involved in both the running and passing game and it's tough not to see them use Dillon as a hammer inside the five. I could easily see Mitchell being pulled in that area for one of the Niners larger RBs.

Dillon>Mitchell

 

[BobbyLayne]

they don’t have a good QB

You do know he played well last year, right? Hear me out.

He was the 16th highest graded passer per PFF while also sitting at third in big-time throw rate and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). While no one is starting Smith this week outside of psychotic 16-team leagues, this does offer some hope. Denver was 20th in pass defense DVOA last year with the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and fifth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.

In general, totally with you, he has historically been an awful QB.

***************

The Seahawks that ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA last year, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in yards per attempt allowed. Russ is gonna cook and I can't wait to see Sutton get back to being the guy he was in 2019. I owned him last year and man was it painful.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Russ is gonna cook and I can't wait to see Sutton get back to being the guy he was in 2019. I owned him last year and man was it painful.

I dealt away Sutton in dynasty just before his injury - haven't regretted it to date, but feels like this is the year he makes me regret it. Sure hoping so for redraft purposes where I have him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You do know he played well last year, right? Hear me out.

I feel like sample size and opponents had a lot to do with that. Give Geno enough time, and the mistakes will be on full display. If he gets benched for Lock by week 8 would anyone be shocked?

I mean, besides Lock, of course.

 

[Chaka]

Full ppr 10 team my flex choice is:

Mooney vs SF
Godwin vs Dal
Rhamondre vs Mia
Henderson vs Buf

12 team .5 ppr (start Brady over Lance right??? Or am I nuts? It’s 6 per pass and rush td)
Flex is Gibson vs Jax
Mooney vs SF
Toney vs Ten

For me it's Mooney v Godwin and, despite coming off an injury all the news about Godwin has been very positive. He's questionable this week but he logged a full practice yesterday and if he logs another one today what's not to like about him?

Mooney should be a target monster. The Bears have, IMO, the worst WR room in the league. Kmet and the RBs are the only other receiving options IMO. But there hasn't been much good news since TC about the Bears offense and they have, on paper, a very bad offensive line. I could see a Mooney getting 10-12 targets but only yielding a 5-45-0 stat line and I am not sure if he truly has a high ceiling, even in PPR.

In week one with everyone 0-0 I like going with the big play option:

Godwin>Mooney

I love Lawrence this year and I think the Bucs may struggle at times with their offensive line but, I'm not crazy:
Brady>>>Lawrence

Gibson feels like a slam dunk too. Toney isn't an option until we see that team on the field and I discussed Mooney already. And this is what I said about Gibson in a previous post:

It should be a plus matchup, although people shouldn't sleep on the Jags D with their first round talent up front, there isn't much competition for touches and, I have to imagine Gibson's pride took a big hit with all the Brian Robinson talk.

Gibson>Mooney>Toney

 

[Chaka]

I try to answer all of these. If I haven't gotten to yours yet, I may have missed it. Please feel free to bump your post, or DM me as a reminder.

 

[Doubles]

Full ppr 10 team my flex choice is:

Mooney vs SF
Godwin vs Dal
Rhamondre vs Mia
Henderson vs Buf

12 team .5 ppr (start Brady over Lance right??? Or am I nuts? It’s 6 per pass and rush td)
Flex is Gibson vs Jax
Mooney vs SF
Toney vs Ten

For me it's Mooney v Godwin and, despite coming off an injury all the news about Godwin has been very positive. He's questionable this week but he logged a full practice yesterday and if he logs another one today what's not to like about him?

Mooney should be a target monster. The Bears have, IMO, the worst WR room in the league. Kmet and the RBs are the only other receiving options IMO. But there hasn't been much good news since TC about the Bears offense and they have, on paper, a very bad offensive line. I could see a Mooney getting 10-12 targets but only yielding a 5-45-0 stat line and I am not sure if he truly has a high ceiling, even in PPR.

In week one with everyone 0-0 I like going with the big play option:

Godwin>Mooney

I love Lawrence this year and I think the Bucs may struggle at times with their offensive line but, I'm not crazy:
Brady>>>Lawrence

Gibson feels like a slam dunk too. Toney isn't an option until we see that team on the field and I discussed Mooney already. And this is what I said about Gibson in a previous post:

It should be a plus matchup, although people shouldn't sleep on the Jags D with their first round talent up front, there isn't much competition for touches and, I have to imagine Gibson's pride took a big hit with all the Brian Robinson talk.

Gibson>Mooney>Toney

Where would you put Marquise in that first list? Marquise>Godwin (if healthy)> Mooney? I forgot to add him sorry. Thanks a lot!

 

[-jb-]

Tough one here...

Toney @ TEN
Olave @ ATL

 

[massraider]

Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Every week I have this question.

 

[Adso]

PPR, rush attempts +0.2 each, need 1 FLEX out of:

Damien Harris @MIA
Jerry Jeudy @SEA
Chase Edmonds vs NEP
Darrell Henderson vs BUF
Melvin Gordon @SEA

Thanks!

+.2/rush & PPR? Interesting & a little weird. Hmmmmm...Allow it!

I'm bearish on the Patriots until I see what they do without McDaniels calling the offense. Plus it's 85 degrees with 75% humidity in Miami and Miami has a very good defense.

Can't go with Henderson IMO. I have him in my redraft and am optimistic, but too much is unknown and he had a soft tissue injury.

I can see rolling out Jeudy. From the TC reports I think Sutton is the 1A, maybe the outright 1. But I heard no real negative news about Jeudy and the passing pie in Denver should be easily big enough to support a legit WR2. Plus Jeudy could be the actual #1WR in Denver when the dust settles.

Denver looks to be in a very winnable game, which should give the running game a good chance to see some scoring opportunities and make no mistake about it, Gordon will still see plenty of touches. Possibly in a short yardage role.

But I still don't love the matchup in Seattle. Russ should cook but Pete is a sneaky mofo, this could end up a trap game, or at least a close game.

Honestly, Edmonds would be a no-brainer for me here IF he wasn't 'limited' with a groin yesterday. I think it is probably closer to a veteran rest day but really have no idea.

Yeah, this is a real tough call. I think you have to go with your gut. My gut says:

Jeudy>Gordon>Edmunds>Harris>Henderson

I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys lead the group this week.

Thanks a ton for the breakdown... that all makes good sense. Probably rolling with Jeudy unless there's some pre-game confirmation that Edmonds is a full go.

 

[Adso]

Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Every week I have this question.

And maybe their best matchups of the year to boot. There's no wrong answer here, both defenses are bottom 4. Maybe Lamar b/c the travel is shorter? Maybe Hurts b/c the Jets have incrementally more talent than the Lions on D? Nitpciking.

Assuming full health for them and all their receiving weapons, I'd go Jackson for his slightly higher potential ceiling I guess.

 

[zamboni]

PPR league - 4 pts passing TD/1 point per 10 rushing yards

Lance (vs Bears) or Carr (vs Chargers)

Rushing upside/floor vs potential AFC West shootout

Thanks for doing this, Chaka

Oooooohhh...interesting.

This one really comes down to your risk tolerance. It is very easy to argue that Lance could be Jalen Hurts 2.0, which is really all I need to say on him. That's his upside and his downside.

Carr looks like he has an opportunity to be more than a Steady-Eddie this year. A lot more. My biggest concern is the offensive line, which is a bottom five unit in the league and they're matched up against Joey Bosa and, oh yeah, Khalil Mack. Think Khalil has some extra motivation going on this week? Ya, I do. I see the Raiders offense as being defined by lots and lots of quick timing routes in the 5-8 yard range, trying to hit guys in stride and let them YAC. Carr's game is well suited to that so I think, despite the o-line and opposing DEs he will find some success. Maybe a floor of 250 & 1.5TDs with an upside of 300+ and 3TDs.

Yeah, this is a tough one. For me, and me alone, this week has a swing-for-the-fences feel. Every magic football team is 0-0 and losing won't be insurmountable, but if Lance carries you dat's gon' feel gooooooooood. And it will make the Niner game actually entertaining (or horribly frustrating) to watch.

No one will fault you for going with Carr, it's probably the "smarter" move, but I'm going with:

Lance>Carr

Does Kittle likely being out change your stance on Lance in terms of his presence in both the passing and running game?

 

[zamboni]

PPR, rush attempts +0.2 each, need 1 FLEX out of:

Damien Harris @MIA
Jerry Jeudy @SEA
Chase Edmonds vs NEP
Darrell Henderson vs BUF
Melvin Gordon @SEA

Thanks!

+.2/rush & PPR? Interesting & a little weird. Hmmmmm...Allow it!

I'm bearish on the Patriots until I see what they do without McDaniels calling the offense. Plus it's 85 degrees with 75% humidity in Miami and Miami has a very good defense.

Can't go with Henderson IMO. I have him in my redraft and am optimistic, but too much is unknown and he had a soft tissue injury.

I can see rolling out Jeudy. From the TC reports I think Sutton is the 1A, maybe the outright 1. But I heard no real negative news about Jeudy and the passing pie in Denver should be easily big enough to support a legit WR2. Plus Jeudy could be the actual #1WR in Denver when the dust settles.

Denver looks to be in a very winnable game, which should give the running game a good chance to see some scoring opportunities and make no mistake about it, Gordon will still see plenty of touches. Possibly in a short yardage role.

But I still don't love the matchup in Seattle. Russ should cook but Pete is a sneaky mofo, this could end up a trap game, or at least a close game.

Honestly, Edmonds would be a no-brainer for me here IF he wasn't 'limited' with a groin yesterday. I think it is probably closer to a veteran rest day but really have no idea.

Yeah, this is a real tough call. I think you have to go with your gut. My gut says:

Jeudy>Gordon>Edmunds>Harris>Henderson

I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys lead the group this week.

Thanks a ton for the breakdown... that all makes good sense. Probably rolling with Jeudy unless there's some pre-game confirmation that Edmonds is a full go.

Edmonds returned to full practice today FWIW

 

[Chaka]

Full ppr 10 team my flex choice is:

Mooney vs SF
Godwin vs Dal
Rhamondre vs Mia
Henderson vs Buf

12 team .5 ppr (start Brady over Lance right??? Or am I nuts? It’s 6 per pass and rush td)
Flex is Gibson vs Jax
Mooney vs SF
Toney vs Ten

For me it's Mooney v Godwin and, despite coming off an injury all the news about Godwin has been very positive. He's questionable this week but he logged a full practice yesterday and if he logs another one today what's not to like about him?

Mooney should be a target monster. The Bears have, IMO, the worst WR room in the league. Kmet and the RBs are the only other receiving options IMO. But there hasn't been much good news since TC about the Bears offense and they have, on paper, a very bad offensive line. I could see a Mooney getting 10-12 targets but only yielding a 5-45-0 stat line and I am not sure if he truly has a high ceiling, even in PPR.

In week one with everyone 0-0 I like going with the big play option:

Godwin>Mooney

I love Lawrence this year and I think the Bucs may struggle at times with their offensive line but, I'm not crazy:
Brady>>>Lawrence

Gibson feels like a slam dunk too. Toney isn't an option until we see that team on the field and I discussed Mooney already. And this is what I said about Gibson in a previous post:

It should be a plus matchup, although people shouldn't sleep on the Jags D with their first round talent up front, there isn't much competition for touches and, I have to imagine Gibson's pride took a big hit with all the Brian Robinson talk.

Gibson>Mooney>Toney

Where would you put Marquise in that first list? Marquise>Godwin (if healthy)> Mooney? I forgot to add him sorry. Thanks a lot!

Marquis for sure. I think he is the unquestioned #1 target in Arizona until Hop gets back.

Marquise>Godwin>Mooney

 

[Chaka]

PPR, rush attempts +0.2 each, need 1 FLEX out of:

Damien Harris @MIA
Jerry Jeudy @SEA
Chase Edmonds vs NEP
Darrell Henderson vs BUF
Melvin Gordon @SEA

Thanks!

+.2/rush & PPR? Interesting & a little weird. Hmmmmm...Allow it!

I'm bearish on the Patriots until I see what they do without McDaniels calling the offense. Plus it's 85 degrees with 75% humidity in Miami and Miami has a very good defense.

Can't go with Henderson IMO. I have him in my redraft and am optimistic, but too much is unknown and he had a soft tissue injury.

I can see rolling out Jeudy. From the TC reports I think Sutton is the 1A, maybe the outright 1. But I heard no real negative news about Jeudy and the passing pie in Denver should be easily big enough to support a legit WR2. Plus Jeudy could be the actual #1WR in Denver when the dust settles.

Denver looks to be in a very winnable game, which should give the running game a good chance to see some scoring opportunities and make no mistake about it, Gordon will still see plenty of touches. Possibly in a short yardage role.

But I still don't love the matchup in Seattle. Russ should cook but Pete is a sneaky mofo, this could end up a trap game, or at least a close game.

Honestly, Edmonds would be a no-brainer for me here IF he wasn't 'limited' with a groin yesterday. I think it is probably closer to a veteran rest day but really have no idea.

Yeah, this is a real tough call. I think you have to go with your gut. My gut says:

Jeudy>Gordon>Edmunds>Harris>Henderson

I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys lead the group this week.

Thanks a ton for the breakdown... that all makes good sense. Probably rolling with Jeudy unless there's some pre-game confirmation that Edmonds is a full go.

NP

Just to clarify in Vegas it would be:

The Field>>Jeudy

But I stand by my free advice, which holds zero consequences for me.

 

[Chaka]

PPR league - 4 pts passing TD/1 point per 10 rushing yards

Lance (vs Bears) or Carr (vs Chargers)

Rushing upside/floor vs potential AFC West shootout

Thanks for doing this, Chaka

Oooooohhh...interesting.

This one really comes down to your risk tolerance. It is very easy to argue that Lance could be Jalen Hurts 2.0, which is really all I need to say on him. That's his upside and his downside.

Carr looks like he has an opportunity to be more than a Steady-Eddie this year. A lot more. My biggest concern is the offensive line, which is a bottom five unit in the league and they're matched up against Joey Bosa and, oh yeah, Khalil Mack. Think Khalil has some extra motivation going on this week? Ya, I do. I see the Raiders offense as being defined by lots and lots of quick timing routes in the 5-8 yard range, trying to hit guys in stride and let them YAC. Carr's game is well suited to that so I think, despite the o-line and opposing DEs he will find some success. Maybe a floor of 250 & 1.5TDs with an upside of 300+ and 3TDs.

Yeah, this is a tough one. For me, and me alone, this week has a swing-for-the-fences feel. Every magic football team is 0-0 and losing won't be insurmountable, but if Lance carries you dat's gon' feel gooooooooood. And it will make the Niner game actually entertaining (or horribly frustrating) to watch.

No one will fault you for going with Carr, it's probably the "smarter" move, but I'm going with:

Lance>Carr

Does Kittle likely being out change your stance on Lance in terms of his presence in both the passing and running game?

Didn't see where Kittle was out but not really. His floor is probably lower, which is a legit concern, but his upside is predicated on running. You could argue that he will have to run more. I think the big concern I'm this game is trying to decide if it will be a low scoring affair.

Carr is still the safer play and I am not arguing against him, I'm saying it's fun to swing for the fences in week 1. You did draft Lance before Carr for a reason, right?

 

[zamboni]

PPR league - 4 pts passing TD/1 point per 10 rushing yards

Lance (vs Bears) or Carr (vs Chargers)

Rushing upside/floor vs potential AFC West shootout

Thanks for doing this, Chaka

Oooooohhh...interesting.

This one really comes down to your risk tolerance. It is very easy to argue that Lance could be Jalen Hurts 2.0, which is really all I need to say on him. That's his upside and his downside.

Carr looks like he has an opportunity to be more than a Steady-Eddie this year. A lot more. My biggest concern is the offensive line, which is a bottom five unit in the league and they're matched up against Joey Bosa and, oh yeah, Khalil Mack. Think Khalil has some extra motivation going on this week? Ya, I do. I see the Raiders offense as being defined by lots and lots of quick timing routes in the 5-8 yard range, trying to hit guys in stride and let them YAC. Carr's game is well suited to that so I think, despite the o-line and opposing DEs he will find some success. Maybe a floor of 250 & 1.5TDs with an upside of 300+ and 3TDs.

Yeah, this is a tough one. For me, and me alone, this week has a swing-for-the-fences feel. Every magic football team is 0-0 and losing won't be insurmountable, but if Lance carries you dat's gon' feel gooooooooood. And it will make the Niner game actually entertaining (or horribly frustrating) to watch.

No one will fault you for going with Carr, it's probably the "smarter" move, but I'm going with:

Lance>Carr

Does Kittle likely being out change your stance on Lance in terms of his presence in both the passing and running game?

Didn't see where Kittle was out but not really. His floor is probably lower, which is a legit concern, but his upside is predicted on running. You could argue that he will have to run more. I think the big concern I'm this game is trying to decide if it will be a low scoring affair.

Carr is still the safer play and I am not arguing against him, I'm saying it's fun to swing for the fences in week 1. You did draft Lance before Carr for a reason, right?

Yup - I also have Allen - superflex league

 

[Chaka]

@Doubles just read that Godwin did not practice today, for me that is enough of a red flag to change my recommendation, which was predicated by virtually no bad news on him to this point.

Mooney>Godwin

 

[Chaka]

Yup - I also have Allen - superflex league

I loves me some super-flex, that's a great stable of QBs you have there.

 

[Chaka]

Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Every week I have this question.

Honestly? Flip a coin. I can't reason myself to a better conclusion that that. That's how close they are in my book.

Sorry.

 

[Chaka]

Tough one here...

Toney @ TEN
Olave @ ATL

Tough one because it's there is almost no way we can even begin to predict usage.

So barring bad injury news I go with Toney. He mostly frustrated last season but, man the little he flashed was impressive. With that plus the fact he's healthy, I like his likely place in the target progression and, I believe a much better coach/system.

I like New Orleans this year, a whole lot as a real world football team. I think they can make a deep run. But where Olave falls in among Thomas, Kamara & Landry is a total mystery this week.

Toney>Olave

 

[fightingillini]

Non-PPR...doing a bit of a back and forth with my WR2 and Flex spots...

Gabe Davis
@LAR or Hollywood Brown vs KC

David Montgomery vs SF or Antonio Gibson vs Jax

My leans have been Gibson and Brown

I agree

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'll start:

12 Team, Super-flex, PPR

I need a flex and my options are:
Amon Ra St Brown v Phili
Hunter Renvrow @ Chargers
Elijah Mitchell @ Chicago
Nyheim Hines @ Houston

I am leaning Mitchell because, when he plays he gets volume and performs well, so I might as well get value out of him while I can.

I like all these options, but would definitely roll with Mitchell. He's not listed on the injury report at all, and that game has an implied total of 41 - which tells me both teams plan to run the ball a lot.

 

[PIK95]

JI need two of James Cook, Alec Pierce, KJ Osborn, Ertz, Isah Spiller, or Robbie Anderson in big play PPR. And yes, I'm serious. I'm leaning Cook at RB2, as I assume he should catch four or five passes? The others for a flex spot. Tia.

 

[Chaka]

JI need two of James Cook, Alec Pierce, KJ Osborn, Ertz, Isah Spiller, or Robbie Anderson in big play PPR. And yes, I'm serious. I'm leaning Cook at RB2, as I assume he should catch four or five passes? The others for a flex spot. Tia.

Do you have to start a RB here? If so, yes:
Cook>Spiller

Ertz is my first choice here overall. He averaged 8 targets per game and that number increased as he became more familiar with the offense. You can't predict game script, but doesn't this seem like a plus matchup?

If you aren't required to start one of the RBs I have a lot of trouble with the next choice. Spiller, Cook & Pierce are mostly unknown commodities. Spiller is a full blown backup. Maybe 3rd or 4th string even. He's out. I have heard some nice things about Pierce but, who really knows? Same for Cook.

For me it comes down to Osborn & Anderson. A lot of people think Osborn is going to pass Thielen this year, and I kind of agree. He was solid last year and having JJ there to draw defensive attention can't hurt. But it's a new offense, a significantly (Worlds) better scheme, but still new so there is somewhat of an unknown.

Anderson was a disappointment last year, and maybe 2020 was peak Anderson. But it always feels, to me, like there is more to him than what we have seen. I think he has the best QB of his career and he has familiarity with the offense. There may be some upside to him here.

It's a tough call across the board, I wouldn't blame you for rolling Cook but, for me it's:

Ertz>>Osborn>Anderson>Cook/Pierce>Spiller

 

[Chaka]

@PIK95 Just saw Ertz was DNP today, after being limited yesterday so he's trending in the wrong direction. Unless we hear something great tomorrow-Sunday.

Osborn>Anderson>Cook/Pierce>Spiller

 

[That one guy]

This will probably be a weekly debate for me:

1/2 PPR, DK Metcalf or Amari Cooper?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Every week I have this question.

I think the Lions have a better chance to make the game a shootout, rather than a slogging, easy win. That would make me lean Hurts.