Manster
Footballguy
There are a lot of home dogs this week. I typically dont like to bet against home dogs too much, but there are some juicy looking matchups in week 1. I definately like more of the favorites this week. I live in Nevada and got my lines from a local sportsbook.I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...
Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football
Bal @ Den -7.5
NE -11 @ Buff
Ten @ Pitt -7
Atl @ NO -3
TB -4 @ NYJ
KC -4 @ Jacksonville
Cinci @ Chi -3
Mia @ Cle -1
Sea -4.5 @ Carolina
Minn @ Det -4
Oak @ Indy -10
Arz @ StL -4.5
GB @ SF -5
NYG @ Dal -3.5
Phi @ Wash -4.5
Hou -5 @ SD
Picks:
Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.
Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.
Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.
San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.
New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.
Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.
Bucs -3 1/2 The jets are junk and Geno is not ready to play in the NFL. The bucs are decent, and much more talented on both sides of the ball
Skins -3 1/2 Shanahan is putting together a solid team in DC. I think RG3 will be fine. Chip Kelly inherited a below average team. They may make strides this season. I dont think it starts this sunday.
Chiefs -3 1/2 Andy Reid and Alex Smith are upgrades for this team. And the Chiefs have pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. Is Gabbert playing? Henne is the backup.....
Texans -3 1/2 JJ Watt may literally kill phillip rivers in this one.
Bengals +2 1/2 I see a 4 pick day for Cutler. Bengals win by a TD or more.
Pats -9 1/2 Tom Brady v. EJ Manuel. I dont care where they're playin.
For week one especially, I like to take the teams that have less turmoil. I try not to overthink it.