What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Week 1 Lines (1 Viewer)

I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...

Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football

Bal @ Den -7.5

NE -11 @ Buff

Ten @ Pitt -7

Atl @ NO -3

TB -4 @ NYJ

KC -4 @ Jacksonville

Cinci @ Chi -3

Mia @ Cle -1

Sea -4.5 @ Carolina

Minn @ Det -4

Oak @ Indy -10

Arz @ StL -4.5

GB @ SF -5

NYG @ Dal -3.5

Phi @ Wash -4.5

Hou -5 @ SD

Picks:

Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.

Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.

Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.

San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.

New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.

Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.
There are a lot of home dogs this week. I typically dont like to bet against home dogs too much, but there are some juicy looking matchups in week 1. I definately like more of the favorites this week. I live in Nevada and got my lines from a local sportsbook.

Bucs -3 1/2 The jets are junk and Geno is not ready to play in the NFL. The bucs are decent, and much more talented on both sides of the ball

Skins -3 1/2 Shanahan is putting together a solid team in DC. I think RG3 will be fine. Chip Kelly inherited a below average team. They may make strides this season. I dont think it starts this sunday.

Chiefs -3 1/2 Andy Reid and Alex Smith are upgrades for this team. And the Chiefs have pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. Is Gabbert playing? Henne is the backup.....

Texans -3 1/2 JJ Watt may literally kill phillip rivers in this one.

Bengals +2 1/2 I see a 4 pick day for Cutler. Bengals win by a TD or more.

Pats -9 1/2 Tom Brady v. EJ Manuel. I dont care where they're playin.

For week one especially, I like to take the teams that have less turmoil. I try not to overthink it.

 
I think Week 1 NFL is one of the toughest cards in all of sports. Everyone is paying attention and Vegas has had all summer to fiddle with the lines. The lines are very sharp to say the least.
Vegas doesnt give a damn about what they think will happen in the games. They want half the action one way and half the action the other way.

That said, I made the "sucker bet" and took Tampa today. Any time a line looks too good to be true, it usually is. Yet I always bet the damn thing and lose 90% of the time.

I mean, I couldnt bring myself to bet on the Jets to be within 3 points of a college team. Wow.

That line even started out at -4.5, so people must have been going heavy on the Jets. Amazing.

 
I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...

Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football

Bal @ Den -7.5

NE -11 @ Buff

Ten @ Pitt -7

Atl @ NO -3

TB -4 @ NYJ

KC -4 @ Jacksonville

Cinci @ Chi -3

Mia @ Cle -1

Sea -4.5 @ Carolina

Minn @ Det -4

Oak @ Indy -10

Arz @ StL -4.5

GB @ SF -5

NYG @ Dal -3.5

Phi @ Wash -4.5

Hou -5 @ SD

Picks:

Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.

Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.

Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.

San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.

New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.

Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.
There are a lot of home dogs this week. I typically dont like to bet against home dogs too much, but there are some juicy looking matchups in week 1. I definately like more of the favorites this week. I live in Nevada and got my lines from a local sportsbook.

Bucs -3 1/2 The jets are junk and Geno is not ready to play in the NFL. The bucs are decent, and much more talented on both sides of the ball

Skins -3 1/2 Shanahan is putting together a solid team in DC. I think RG3 will be fine. Chip Kelly inherited a below average team. They may make strides this season. I dont think it starts this sunday.

Chiefs -3 1/2 Andy Reid and Alex Smith are upgrades for this team. And the Chiefs have pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. Is Gabbert playing? Henne is the backup.....

Texans -3 1/2 JJ Watt may literally kill phillip rivers in this one.

Bengals +2 1/2 I see a 4 pick day for Cutler. Bengals win by a TD or more.

Pats -9 1/2 Tom Brady v. EJ Manuel. I dont care where they're playin.

For week one especially, I like to take the teams that have less turmoil. I try not to overthink it.
You like to pick a lot of ROAD teams eh? They always look juicy since the line is shifted about 7 points in their direction for being on the road.

1-3 so far.

Man, this used to be SOOO much easier when I was betting about 15 years ago. Now all the information is so readily available to everyone, the lines have been adjusted accordingly. Back then the degenerate gamblers didnt take the time to research it all, but now it barely takes any time at all. Sucks.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Geez JB. Get your nose out of the football odds. You have a baseball league and playoffs to worry about!

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top