This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
I think any real success Baldwin sees in this first week could be directly attributed to a slow start from Bowe, assuming there are still some lingering effects from the hold out. In a game where KC will almost certainly have to abandon the run at some point, he really could make for a sneaky flex.'DevilintheDetail said:
In the vast, vast majority of leagues, it is hard for me to imagine that starting Baldwin in a flex spot in Week 1 is anything but desperate. Why "sneaky"? Mostly just low-probability of any payoff. Not sure why people around here are so concerned with sneaky lineup moves. There are easily 100+ players that I would rather start in a flex spot.
Sneaky as in, no one would see it coming? In no way am I advocating that someone should flex Baldwin unless they were in a deep league but in the same vein I'm not denying potential. Everyone mentioned in this thread so far, aside from Baldwin, is actually starting and most have prime match ups. I've already followed my own advice, subbing out Stevie for Amendola in one league and everyone else's advice, subbing out Stevie for Wright in another. It's all good man, this type of thread is definitely relevant.
Why would Jeffrey get 10+ targets? Jeffery isn't even starting for the Bears. Forte is the major check down guy still, right? And Kellen Davis is a much bigger target coming across the middle (6'7" vs. 6'2"). Isn't Jeffery probably #6 in the receiving pecking order (behind Marshall, Hester, Forte, Bennet, Kellen Davis)? Jeffery has had a good camp but I'd be shocked if he got more than 5 targets.
I agree this thread is relevant (Floyd, for instance, is a good call and Braylon Edwards might be, too, although AZ's secondary is better than most think). I'm just positing that Baldwin is a pretty low chance player this week given his role on the team and his matchup.
I don't think Jeffery is going to get 10 targets in a game even once this year, but I also don't think he's 6th in the target order, at least not as the season progresses. We'll see what happens. I do know that the Bears management, Bears players and some Bears media coverage have all emphasized Jeffery should be a prime target in the redzone given his size, and instinctual high-pointing of the ball. Perhaps they're all just blowing smoke, but in a league emphasizing TDs, Jeffery could contend for the best rookie moniker if the Bears and Cutler live up to some of their preseason hype offensively.Jeffery is to me an outstanding 5th or 6th WR (i.e., end of bench) kind of guy. If he gets into the starting lineup in October, he could be a WR3 caliber player in the second half of the season, maybe a low WR2 in a heavy TD league. Sure, there are 60 receivers or so of whom the same claim can be made, but most of those are rostered in the majority of leagues. I'm not sure that's true of Jeffery. If he's on your league's waiver wire, maybe he shouldn't be, if you know what I mean.
Sure. I think he has talent, obviously, and seems like he's played well in camp. I just think he's probably still pretty far down the totem pole when it comes to targets, which will be spread widely around after Marshall. This still isn't going to be a big passing offense and they are going to try to run a LOT in the red zone. A lot of things have to break his way for him to become fantasy relevant even in good sized leagues. Even if you are looking for guys that were probably undrafted, I'd probably rather bet on Braylon Edwards or Donald Jones becoming fantasy relevant than Jeffrey. Edwards and Jones should at least be the #2 receiving target in their offense and the #1 WRs on their respective teams both tend to get injured.
Lots of people have different philosophies. I see players like Edwards and Jones as low-ceiling guys. Even though they have a higher floor than Jeffery, that's not who I want on my bench as my last receiver. Unless you're in leagues with huge benches and/or 16+ teams, those kind of receivers can be found virtually any time on the waiver wire. Jeffery is a classic swing for the fences type pick, and ironically reminds me some of Marshall as a rookie, although I'm sure a large part of it is the fact that Cutler is involved and Marshall is on the other side of the field. For what it's worth, I see Marshall as demanding a lot more coverage, which is one of the reasons I see Jeffery as having a higher ceiling. In any case, my guess is that Jeffery ends up second in receptions among Bear wide receivers, possibly by a comfortable margin, although Forte probably edges him out for #2 overall in catches. I doubt Jeffery gets over 700 yards or 5 TDs but I can see the bulk of that happening in the second half of the season. Again, difference of philosophy, opinion, or both, but that's where I'm at. Good luck to you. We could both end up happy in this case.
I agree. I see Jeffery as a swing for the fences type roster move. The beauty with Jeffery is that if he does have a good game in week1, it's likely he'll continue to put up good numbers the rest of the year. His situation and potential aren't dependent on week 1 only situation or opponent (like Ogletree).'The Jerk said:
Good luck to you, too. I actually think we're looking for the same kind of guy - I just think Edwards is a potentially big upside guy and Jeffrey is not. In my view, Jeffrey's upside is the #3 receiving option (behind Marshall and Forte) in a mediocre passing offense. There are lots of those guys on the waiver wire. Braylon Edwards already put up a top 3 fantasy WR season in a mediocre Cleveland offense (1,250 yards, 16 TDs in 2007). He's one of only five active receivers to catch 15 or more TD passes in a season (Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, and Calvin Johnson). He's been mostly injured since then, but in his only other healthy season in the last four (2010 with the Jets), he had 900 yards and 7 TDs. He's healthy now, still only 29, and the only obstacle in his path to becoming Seattle's #1 WR is Sidney Rice, who is talented but has missed more time than even Braylon over the past couple of years. Hard to see how he's anything but a pretty big upside guy.'The Jerk said:
It's interesting how differently we view the Seattle WR situation. I see Doug Baldwin as likely to end up with more targets than either Bennett or Hester. And I don't see Seattle passing any more frequently than Chicago in the red zone. In the end, that's why they play the games, and that's why we watch. Tomorrow we get our first glimpse at some of the answers. Good discussion.
