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Week 10 - Buy Low/ Sell High (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
shadyridr
Footballguy
Again I don't think you get it. No chance in hell would anyone give up Miller for DT
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
It may seem that I don't value RBs and it may actually be somewhat true but I do understand that the scarcity of the position does make it more valuable. That's not going to stop me from sending offers to owners of struggling top tier players. I'm going after players like Jeffery, Hopkins and Gurley. I'm only doing it when their teams have obvious needs though.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Why? I don't see why it wouldn't be worth while offering the Miller owner DT and an RB like Gio.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Of course you can offer up anything you want but then dont come on here and say people in your league overvalue their rbs to highly.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Shepard isn't a WR1, though. If that's your starting point, that's why the trade isn't happening. You're over-valuing him.
mikel0254
Footballguy
I was thinking the same. At least in my leagues, he was unattainable before the season. Now, I'd assume the owner would listen to offers. You'd still have to give up a lot...you'll never buy him cheap. But cheaper than he was 4 weeks ago
Again, you are talking about a 3-game sample, which is skewed by the fact that Miller has over 100 touches without a TD. He's averaged a TD on 3% of his touches in his career before this season, and it stands to reason that he will score some TDs this year.
Shepard has more points than Beckham, Hopkins, & B Marshall; does that somehow mean he is more valuable than those 3?
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
No kidding. I don't expect an RB1 or higher end RB2 for Shepard but I would try and pair one of my RBs with him to get an RB2 possibly. I'm hoping Shepard has a great game tonight because I would love to get a RB for him while his value is somewhat high.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The beauty of trades is trying to catch people when they are at their weakest. Right now is the best time to catch people overreacting on players over performing and under performing. This is the whole purpose of this thread I thought. This is the time you take a low tier player that is at his max value and turn him for a high tire player that's at his lowest value. There are teams that have not won yet, are desperate and may be willing to turn that big name player that's off to a slow start into two or three players that may help their team now.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Very true. Buy high/sell low is more realistic but the goal is to buy low/sell low and that's why we're discussing it. It takes the perfect situation for it to work. That, or an incompetent team owner.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Define wr1. I own Miller in 2 of 3 leagues. I've been a little disappointed in him and worry if he can handle this load for 16 games, but I'd need a stud in return to trade him right now
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I think a WR1 is someone in the top 12 for points in a 12 team league right now.
There are different variables for how people value one of their players though and sometimes that clouds things up.. Here are some of the top of my head.
1. The cost you paid to get him/draft position.
2. Projecting your player to score a lot of points regardless of their situation and what's happened up til now.
3. Personal interest: Could be a favorite player or on your favorite team.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I remember back 15 years ago I fleeced someone so badly that I still can't believe I pulled it off. There was a team that started 0-2 and was so concerned that Terrell Owens and Tony Gonzalez had both started slowly (in their primes, mind you). I traded 2 or 3 guys that started pretty well who essentially were flavors of the week. The guys I traded went back to their normal mediocre selves, and I picked up the #1 TE and the #2 WR. IIRC, in the time I owned Owens that year, he scored 16 TD. The moral of the story is that sometimes people panic and do really stupid things.
But your 1st post was saying other people overvalue their RBs, then you complained Miller isn't a RB1, keep pointing out that Shepard is WR11, and that you want to exploit others and catch them at their weakest.Hawkeye21 said:
Other owners aren't over-valuing their RBs, you are hoping one will over-value YOUR WR & you will be able to exploit that. That's not a good recipe for trading, & definitely not conducive to establishing relationships that lead to future trades.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Not right now. At this moment he's not even a WR2. He's the 28th WR in my league right now. I would say now is a great time to get him at a lower price if that team is really struggling.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
You have to factor in most people use irrational logic when it comes to a sunk cost.Gottabesweet said:
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I'm not running a long established business here. I'm trying to win a fantasy football league that's full of gambling degenerates like myself.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
1. Means nothing to me once the games start. I want to acquire players that are scoring points and get rid of the ones that aren't.Hawkeye21 said:
3. Means nothing to me again
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yeah, you are focusing way too much on the stats. People are just saying that's not reality. Nobody is trading Miller for Crabtree or Landry just because they are the top 10 in scoring after a few weeks.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
That may be true, but I don't think anyone believes DT will be WR11 for the remainder of the season. And that's what matters. DEN is still going to be a run first team and Sanders is no slouch on the other side the ball. They still have a rookie (whether it's Siemian or Lynch) tossing the rock. There's going to be some inconsistency in the DEN passing game.Hawkeye21 said:
Most people are going to value Miller as at least RB12 going forward. And he's the bellcow getting 20+ touches. That's valuable. He's RB19 due to the lack of TDs....put 3 TDs by his name and he's a top 10 RB, just like what he was when he was drafted.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
For trade purposes? Yep.
So if you had Hopkins you would trade him straight up for Fuller?
wormburner
Footballguy
Speaking as a guppy in a guppy league, I think our biggest hindrance to assigning buy/sell value as you all are discussing is that some FF managers mistake ADP with actual or perceived value. Some simply won't trade a 2nd rounder for a 4th rounder (for example) no matter how skewed the rankings turn out, early injuries affect depth charts, etc.shadyridr said:
Not a one size fits all explanation, but I think it is a frequent mindset.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I can see that in PPR leagues. The league I traded Hyde for Robinson straight up....that's a 1/2 PPR league. And I was strong at RB but weak at WR, and the other owner had Julio, Robinson, K Benjamin and Diggs, and desperately needed a RB due to injuries. It was a perfect situation to get max value from Hyde.....the trade works well on both sides.
Most of the replies here about RB value assumes that you have to start 2 RBs. If your league starts 3 WRs and a flex and is PPR, I can see how the other owner won't accept Miller for Robinson.
Personally, while I like TY a lot, Miller for TY.....I think I would have trouble pulling the trigger on that.
DropKick
Footballguy
Redraft maybe... but I'm very high on him in dynasty.shadyridr said:
ETA: Zero trade value and "dime a dozen" is a bit harsh. Shepard was considered among the best in the this years class and landed in a perfect spot. 16 reception on 19 targets over 3 games with a TD or 100 receiving in each game so far... and I think playing opposite ODB has its advantages. What does it take to have value?
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Cool story, but your complaints about how other owners are over-valuing their RBs is inaccurate. YOU are over-valuing your WR, and hoping to take advantage of other owners who may not be as on-the-ball as you, but none of them are taking the bait.
Then why are you trying to trade a WR1 (you said Shepard is WR 11 in your league; DT is WR9 in standard) for a low-end RB2 (Miller is RB20 in standard), AND throwing in another RB to boot?Hawkeye21 said:
You obviously don't just use the points to determine WR1, RB1, etc, except when it's convenient for your argument; otherwise you wouldn't be trying to trade WR1s for low-end RB2s.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I agree, I don't but some others may and I want to find out if they will. I want to sell some of my players while they are a top player. This is the hole purpose of this thread. It's why fantasy podcasts spend entire episodes discussing players we should be trying to sell high and players we should try to buy low.
Im trying to sell some of my bench players that just happen to have some value right now for players who are off to slow starts.
I feel my comment about people overvaluing RBs really hit a sore spot for some. I do understand that the scarcity for the position makes lower end RBs more valuable but there is a point in the season where an owner has to cut bait on a player and needs to make a move to try and win.
You cant wait forever for one of your top drafted players to produce when you start the season 0-4. I'm trying to make a deal with these people.
As for trading Shepard when he's the WR11, he's my 5th WR so he seems like a prime player to trade. If he continues to produce at that pace then I'll try trading another WR like DT.
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Synthesizer
Footballguy
Not sure why everyone is giving Hawkeye a tough time over his suggested trades. Just because we think that L.Miller will start scoring TDs doesn't mean that he actually will. He could play all 16 games and only end up with 3 TDs. And who knows, maybe D.Thomas will continue his pace and end up with 1300 and 8. I learned a long time ago not to talk people out of a trade (or offer) because you never know how things will turn out.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Thank you. None of us know what any player is going to do. We have our own projections and opinions on players. Some people will give up on certain players earlier than others and I see problem with offering a trade for them.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Is d murray for gurley fair? RedraftHawkeye21 said:
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I think it is right now. Murray has been great and is leading all RBs right now. Not only has he put up a lot of points he's done it consistently. Gurley has only had one good game so far. It's not that I don't think Gurley is good because I know he's a stud but he just can't get anything going against defenses stacking the box.
Honestly, I'd rather keep Murray right now unless you have a good feeling about Gurley going off and Murray struggling. I'd have to look at their playoff schedules too.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
A guy in my league was trying to give me Blount and D Washington for my Jody or Evans. I said no way.Anarchy99 said:
He ended up finding a trade partner though. He gave Blount and CMike for Cooper. I thought he did alright. Cooper doesn't seem to be the WR1 on the Raiders this year though.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
You're right. None of us knows what's going to happen. Shepard may have one of the better rookie WR seasons of all time and Miller may struggle to find the endzone.
But the point is about him thinking his trades are being turned down because people "over value their mediocre RBs", which isnt the case for reasons repeated numerous times in this thread.
And for the record, I own DT in all 3 of my redrafts and think he's been undervalued all summer and continues to be as we sit here in week 4.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
It's one of those trades that makes you nervous because of what you have invested in Gurley but the run game seems to be the only thing working in Tenn. I haven't seen much in the Rams to gain much faith right now. Gurley's talent alone is the only glimmer of hope.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I didn't mean for the "overvalue" comment to come off that bad. I may have exaggerate some.
What are your thoughts on the offers that were made to me that I posted above?
Fins n Terps
Footballguy
I posted on here last week about wanting to move Gurley for a WR1. Ended up landing AJ Green after having my offers for ARob and Jordy declined. Lesson here is values are subjective. Throw out those offers.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
Its really not a big deal. We all have opinions. And I probably still have some longstanding bias toward favoring RBs even in PPR leagues for a number of reasons. I do think your perception of value was/is a little off though.
As for the trade offers above I would have said "no way" too to Blount and Washington for Jordy or Evans. That's ridiculous IMO.
Also agree with you on Gurley and Murray. Ive been lower than most on Gurley in redraft due to the Rams atrocious offense. Keenum is awful, never been a Goff believer, and the skill position and offensive scheme both leave much to be desired. I wasnt sure what to think of Murray but he's a great fit in TEN and after reading why their coaches said they signed him I think he continues near top 5 production as long as he stays healthy.
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
One man's sell high is another man's buy high. That's the beauty of trades.shadyridr said:
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
How do we feel about alshon? He doesn't have a td and hes not getting that many targets but is this a result of his injury?
