Week 15 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Zeke or M.Gordon? Bateman or J.Reynolds.... PPR 

That first one is tough.  My inclination is to say roll with Zeke but it's tough. He's clearly diminished this season, for whatever reason and Pollard is back at practice.

Zeke has averaged 17 opportunities for 61 yards (with 3.6 receptions/game) since week 8 and he has TDs in two of those seven games (3 total TDs).

Melvin has averaged 19 opportunities for 80 yards (1.4 receptions/game) since week 8 and has TDs in four of five games over that span (6 total TDs).

Cowboys should crush the Giants, which is what Zeke has going for him, but I hate counting on game script when making recommendations.  The NFL is too wonky to rely on that.

Melvin>Zeke

Bateman gets more consistent targets and actually averaged 7 targets/game with Huntley at QB.  Neither is particularly exciting but Bateman is the guy IMO.

Bateman>Reynolds

 

[Chaka]

1/2 PPR.....starting Tyreek and JaMarr Chase at WR.  

For my WR3, do I start Mike Williams vs KC or Van Jefferson vs SEA?

I would like to see a practice report on Williams today but even if it is good I think Van Jefferson is probably the right call.  He's the hot hand and his three targets were his lowest since week 2. And he still managed a great game on those three targets.

I love Williams but he has clearly fallen off a massive cliff for production.  He still has great upside IMO but so does Jefferson and he should get more opportunities with OBJ possibly (probably?) out.

Van Jefferson>Mike Williams

ETA: FTR I had OBJ in my lineup over Williams before the Covid news

 

[JIslander]

Close call with the defenses indeed, particularly if Lamar is out.  But Arizona also has a nice matchup in theory too.  Although Detroit doesn't actually yield a ton of points to fantasy defenses. Baltimore gives up more sacks and picks (although that 4 pick game by Lamar feels like an aberration, Detroit gains far fewer yards and scores far fewer points. GB and Ari are virtually identical in yardage and points yielded (Ari has the slightest edge in both) and they each have a combined 50 sacks+INT+Forced Fumbles

It's a tossup really by any measure.  Go with your gut.  I think I roll

Ari>GB but that is based upon nothing.

If Thielen is out then I definitely roll with KJ>Davante

If Thielen plays then Davante has a clearer path to 8+ targets IMO

Thanks as always Chaka!  

Also worried about McLaurin (at Philly this week) -- He's been disappointing in that offense.   Leave him in over KJ or Davante?

 

[stubby]

14 team Standard league, bonus points for 100yds

Flex options are horrible this week...need 1 of following 4:

Robby Anderson against a really good Buffalo pass D on the road, L. Treadwell vs Houston (ick),  D. Schultz vs NYG (he's disappeared since both Cooper and Gallup are back) and finally K. Toney who might not even play but will have some iteration of Glennon/Fromm to deal with if he does.

Listed in the order I have them right now. Leaning Robby b/c Carolina might be throwing trying to catch Buffalo over Treadwell who has shown a decent floor the last three weeks, but hasn't come close to 100yds yet, and competes with Shenault and Marvin.

 

[Chaka]

Thanks as always Chaka!  

Also worried about McLaurin (at Philly this week) -- He's been disappointing in that offense.   Leave him in over KJ or Davante?

I guess it depends somewhat on Heinicke's status. But even with Heinie in the lineup McLaurin has simply not been the target sponge he has been in the past. The upside is there but he seems more like a seven target guy on an average scoring offense.

If Thielen is out I think KJ is the clear choice.  If Thielen plays the I think I lean Davante over both, it's a big risk but I think he has a path to 8+ targets against a highly vulnerable D.

Wish I could be more definitive.

 

[Chaka]

14 team Standard league, bonus points for 100yds

Flex options are horrible this week...need 1 of following 4:

Robby Anderson against a really good Buffalo pass D on the road, L. Treadwell vs Houston (ick),  D. Schultz vs NYG (he's disappeared since both Cooper and Gallup are back) and finally K. Toney who might not even play but will have some iteration of Glennon/Fromm to deal with if he does.

Listed in the order I have them right now. Leaning Robby b/c Carolina might be throwing trying to catch Buffalo over Treadwell who has shown a decent floor the last three weeks, but hasn't come close to 100yds yet, and competes with Shenault and Marvin.

In this scenario I can see the value of chasing Anderson's points from last week. But be sure to check the weather report for wind, that is the only weather condition that concerns me.

 

[Yenrub]

I need some help with my #2 RB (Kamara is my #1) 

TD’s 6 pts / .04 per yard rushing / .10 per catch / .03 per yard receiving

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OR Antonio Gibson

I hate Thursday games and after last week not sure I can trust Gibson

 

[yoman]

1) RB 2: J.Jacobs @ Cleveland on Saturday

Donta Foreman @ Pittsburgh

Rashaad Penny @ Los Angeles Rams

Javonte Williams v Cincinnati 

2) WR2: Mike Williams (Questionable) v Kansas City

Odell Beckham Jr. v Seattle

Darnell Mooney v Vikings

3) FLEX: whoever I don't select for RB2 or WR2?

I would wait until the end of the week to make these decisions. 

I definitely like Jacobs if all the Cleveland players are out and think he might be the best among this group.

For WR I would go with Mooney only because of Beckham having Covid. 

For flex I would start Williams but if the Rams are missing players on D but would consider Penne.  Gordon is probably going to have 1/2 the touches so it might limit his upside but he should still do well.. I would rank Foreman 4th on this list. 

 

[yoman]

I need some help with my #2 RB (Kamara is my #1) 

TD’s 6 pts / .04 per yard rushing / .10 per catch / .03 per yard receiving

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OR Antonio Gibson

I hate Thursday games and after last week not sure I can trust Gibson

Just when you think you have turned a corner with Gibson he throws up another clunker. I think CEH is the safer play and would lean towards him but think Gibson might have more upside if McKissic is still in the concussion protocol. 

 

[The General]

QB: Taysom Hill or Jalen Hurts

RB: Melvin Gordon or David Montgomery

 

[jobarules]

Okay I'll start because, wow this may be my toughest week on the season (bold are in my lineup ATM).

Full PPR

1) RB 2: J.Jacobs @ Cleveland on Saturday

Donta Foreman @ Pittsburgh

Rashaad Penny @ Los Angeles Rams

Javonte Williams v Cincinnati 

2) WR2: Mike Williams (Questionable) v Kansas City

Odell Beckham Jr. v Seattle

Darnell Mooney v Vikings

3) FLEX: whoever I don't select for RB2 or WR2?

The long version:

J.Jacobs - If you haven't been following him closely he appears to be a disappointment but, since their week eight bye the Raiders are 1-5 HOWEVER over that span Jacobs is getting 18 opportunities, he has 30 receptions (35 targets). He has a TD in 2 of 5 games and is the #16 RB in my league (ppg) over that span.  

Penny - The Texans ain't the Rams that's for sure. But Carroll just gave keys to Penny RoS (yes, yes, yes injuries.  We all know about that, but he's healthy this week...so far). One factor I did not consider until today is the Seahawks didn't pick up Penny's fifth year option so he's playing for a contract.  When healthy this kid always seems to flash.  Dude has only had four career games with 12 or more carries but he has a TD in each one and has gone 16-137, 15-74 (4 receptions for 33 & another TD), 14-129 & 12-108.

M.Williams - No one was higher on this guy than me and technically he has been a mid-WR2 all year (21st in ppg in my 12 team league) and I have rolled him out reliably all season based upon the notion that I can withstand a dud from him to reap the benefits of his huge games.  But since week 9 he is WR37 in my league and had one big game, that he salvaged with a 53 yard TD at 2:09 left in the 4th.  He's dinged up and on a short week and his target numbers have dropped from 9/game weeks 1-8 to 6/game weeks 9-14 and he only got 6 targets with Keenan out of the lineup this week.

Mooney - Not really considering him. It's a fine matchup but after Sunday night how can we possibly rely on him? 19 yard catch on the first drive then four mostly bad targets the rest of the way.

Not a big fan of Javonte this week. Looking like his usual split with Gordon and they aren't playing the Lions this week. I see an 8-10 pt game and am benching him. I'd go Jacobs at RB, Williams at WR, and Penny at Flex

 

[jobarules]

QB: Taysom Hill or Jalen Hurts

RB: Melvin Gordon or David Montgomery

Taysom and Monty without a doubt. Hurts has a HAS and may not even play. Monty never leaves the field and is a stud that plays in a crappy offense.

 

[Devil_Dog]

Do I start R. Penny over any of these guys in a std PPR scoring league?

• Gibson
  
• Aiyuk
  
• Jeudy
  

 

[The General]

Taysom and Monty without a doubt. Hurts has a HAS and may not even play. Monty never leaves the field and is a stud that plays in a crappy offense.

Hill and Hurts is going to kill me. I kind of hope just for this decision there is more news about Jalen (I hadn't heard HAS) to make this easier.

 

[Devil_Dog]

I need some help with my #2 RB (Kamara is my #1) 

TD’s 6 pts / .04 per yard rushing / .10 per catch / .03 per yard receiving

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OR Antonio Gibson

I hate Thursday games and after last week not sure I can trust Gibson

I agree with your comment regarding having concerns over Gibson but in this case I think I would start Clyde regardless.

 

[jobarules]

Hill and Hurts is going to kill me. I kind of hope just for this decision there is more news about Jalen (I hadn't heard HAS) to make this easier.

I'm debating Hill over Prescott

 

[The General]

I'm debating Hill over Prescott

I do see Hill rated above Dak this week in most spots. Another tough one.

 

[Runnyb]

If Eckeler is ruled out before the game on Thursday night - Justin Jackson or Hubbard? 1pt PPR

 

[MASSHOLE]

Hi Chaka,

full ppr would you pick Hollywood, Julio or Bateman as WR3

if Henderson doesn’t play would you pick Stevenson, Foreman or R. Freeman as RB2

any of the above or Pitts as flex 

GB or LAR 

Thanks in advance, actually, maybe you should just manage my team with all these WDIS’s.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Hill and Hurts is going to kill me. I kind of hope just for this decision there is more news about Jalen (I hadn't heard HAS) to make this easier.

I'm debating Hill over Prescott

Came here to post that I'm going to be sweating Hill vs Russ for the rest of the playoffs. It's really not about the matchups; I just worry that Hill can't keep salvaging his performances with garbage-time TDs. That said, I think I'm going to keep starting him until he proves me wrong (or the Seattle offense gets back to where it was pre-Russ' injury).

 

[jobarules]

Came here to post that I'm going to be sweating Hill vs Russ for the rest of the playoffs. It's really not about the matchups; I just worry that Hill can't keep salvaging his performances with garbage-time TDs. That said, I think I'm going to keep starting him until he proves me wrong (or the Seattle offense gets back to where it was pre-Russ' injury).

I saw something that Hill has finished as a top 12 QB in every game he's ever started

 

[J R]

I need some help with my #2 RB (Kamara is my #1) 

TD’s 6 pts / .04 per yard rushing / .10 per catch / .03 per yard receiving

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OR Antonio Gibson

I hate Thursday games and after last week not sure I can trust Gibson

I don't trust Thursday games either. FWIW Chiefs have averaged 30+ on Thursdays the last few years, but in one of them Mahomes got hurt.

 

[Chaka]

I need some help with my #2 RB (Kamara is my #1) 

TD’s 6 pts / .04 per yard rushing / .10 per catch / .03 per yard receiving

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OR Antonio Gibson

I hate Thursday games and after last week not sure I can trust Gibson

Why do you think you can trust CEH? He doesn't get to play the Raiders every week.

They're both risks but only one of them has a good chance to see 20+ touches

Gibson>CEH

 

[Chaka]

QB: Taysom Hill or Jalen Hurts

RB: Melvin Gordon or David Montgomery

Both very tough choices.  The Hurts situation may sort itself out so you should wait on a decision until we know Hurts is actually going to play. Both QBs profile so similarly that I think the injury concern favors Taysom

Taysom>Hurts but monitor practice reports, if Hurts is a full go Thursday & Friday you may want to consider starting him.  I don't think I would though.

I hate that Melvin is finding the end zone so often, it's such a difficult stat to predict but it's also impossible to ignore.

Montgomery is a clear three down back and he doesn't get pulled at the goal line, Chicago has a good matchup at home too. Minnesota has been playing like a slumpbuster all year. They seem to keep every team in the game, they lost to Detroit for goodness sake. I have to imagine Montgomery is in line for 20+ opportunities.

Gordon has performed better than Montgomery by every metric on the season and since week 9, and he's finding the end zone regularly. He has at least one TD in three of his last four and nine TDs in eleven games on the season. But Cincinnati is not Detroit and I don't know if Gordon & Javonte can expect do divide 41 opportunities between them this week.

This is a real gut call and I can see myself flip-flopping multiple times.

Right now my gut is saying

Montgomery>Gordon but my gut may say something different tomorrow.

 

[Chaka]

Not a big fan of Javonte this week. Looking like his usual split with Gordon and they aren't playing the Lions this week. I see an 8-10 pt game and am benching him. I'd go Jacobs at RB, Williams at WR, and Penny at Flex

The needle has been moving a ton for me on this one and I am starting to think the same.  Williams is locked in with the OBJ news, Minnesota may be a slump buster but I think Mooney has a lower floor and Williams has the higher ceiling too.

Never thought I would bench Javonte for Penny but it might happen.

 

[The General]

Both very tough choices.  The Hurts situation may sort itself out so you should wait on a decision until we know Hurts is actually going to play. Both QBs profile so similarly that I think the injury concern favors Taysom

Taysom>Hurts but monitor practice reports, if Hurts is a full go Thursday & Friday you may want to consider starting him.  I don't think I would though.

I hate that Melvin is finding the end zone so often, it's such a difficult stat to predict but it's also impossible to ignore.

Montgomery is a clear three down back and he doesn't get pulled at the goal line, Chicago has a good matchup at home too. Minnesota has been playing like a slumpbuster all year. They seem to keep every team in the game, they lost to Detroit for goodness sake. I have to imagine Montgomery is in line for 20+ opportunities.

Gordon has performed better than Montgomery by every metric on the season and since week 9, and he's finding the end zone regularly. He has at least one TD in three of his last four and nine TDs in eleven games on the season. But Cincinnati is not Detroit and I don't know if Gordon & Javonte can expect do divide 41 opportunities between them this week.

This is a real gut call and I can see myself flip-flopping multiple times.

Right now my gut is saying

Montgomery>Gordon but my gut may say something different tomorrow.

This is great and it’s like you are my inner monologue as I look at my lineup page  

 

[Chaka]

Do I start R. Penny over any of these guys in a std PPR scoring league?

• Gibson
  
• Aiyuk
  
• Jeudy
  

Penny>>>Jeudy - Jeudy has shown flashes of being a very good player but Denver has too many offensive weapons and they don't have a QB who can fully exploit them.  If they keep this core of Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant and Javonte and manage to land Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers in the off season they will be lethal.

I see the temptation in starting Penny over Gibson. I absolutely do, and this may be a coin toss for me. IMO Gibson has a much clearer path to 20+ touches and that has so much value.  With Kyle Allen possibly starting I think they lean on Gibson even more, and the Eagles defense will shade that way too.  The Rams can't key on Penny and they are definitely riddled with The Vid, although I don't think they have lost any significant starters on defense yet (assuming Ramsey is back).  Yeah tough call.

Right now my gut is just slightly leaning

Gibson>Penny

ETA: @Devil_Dog Heinicke & Kyle Allen are both in the protocol. WFT now has 20+ players in the protocol an I have no idea how many will clear before Sunday and even less of an idea how it will impact the offense/defense.

On the plus side you have to imagine Gibson will get every touch WFT can provide him but what kind of production that turns into... no idea

I probably lean

Penny>Gibson ATM

 

[Chaka]

If Eckeler is ruled out before the game on Thursday night - Justin Jackson or Hubbard? 1pt PPR

I really don't like Hubbard this week at all.  If Buffalo is going to even pretend to be the team we thought they were at the beginning of the season they need to put a whuppin' on the Panthers at home. 

But the Chargers backfield outside of Ekeler is not settled.  Jackson has performed the best as both a runner & receiver but for some reason Larry Rountree has seven more carries on the season.

It's definitely a roll of the dice but 

Jackson>Hubbard I just don't like what Carolina is facing this week. Their path to being competitive is through the air.

 

[Chaka]

Hi Chaka,

full ppr would you pick Hollywood, Julio or Bateman as WR3

if Henderson doesn’t play would you pick Stevenson, Foreman or R. Freeman as RB2

any of the above or Pitts as flex 

GB or LAR 

Thanks in advance, actually, maybe you should just manage my team with all these WDIS’s.

Marquise>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Julio>>>Bateman

Brown is a target sponge regardless of who is under center. He has the highest floor and the highest ceiling.  I think Pittsburgh plays their best when their back is against the wall, I don't trust any Titans this week.  And why anyone would even consider Bateman over Brown is beyond me.

I guess it comes down to Stevenson & Foreman as your RB and considering the way Harris pulled up lame (yes he had the bye but I didn't like the way that looked) I would probably roll 

Stevenson>Foreman>>Freeman  Sorry can't recommend a Texan RB. (Cyril: Can't or won't? Archer: Uhhhh...both.)

Packers>>Rams

I don't think I could handle the pressure of running other people's teams.  Bad for my agita. I just offer my opinions and they're worth exactly as much as I am getting paid for them.  I always encourage people to go with their gut because it is just as reliable as any other resource.  But please keep coming back, it's fun to think about these things.

 

[Chaka]

This is great and it’s like you are my inner monologue as I look at my lineup page  

Maybe I should change my username to Jiminy Chakat

 

[Saint]

Could use some help.  1/2 pt PPR, 14 team league, Bold is who I currently have plugged in.

RB2:  CEH / Robinson / Pollard

WRs (Need three from this mess):  Julio / Amon-Ra / Osborn / Bateman / Davis / Shenault / MVS / Thielen (inj)

Flex:  Robinson / Pollard or one of the receivers above.

Somehow made the playoffs with this squad.  I can also get Rondale Moore off the waiver wire, but ARZ seems hit or miss with him.

 

[Devil_Dog]

Penny>>>Jeudy - Jeudy has shown flashes of being a very good player but Denver has too many offensive weapons and they don't have a QB who can fully exploit them.  If they keep this core of Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant and Javonte and manage to land Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers in the off season they will be lethal.

I see the temptation in starting Penny over Gibson. I absolutely do, and this may be a coin toss for me. IMO Gibson has a much clearer path to 20+ touches and that has so much value.  With Kyle Allen possibly starting I think they lean on Gibson even more, and the Eagles defense will shade that way too.  The Rams can't key on Penny and they are definitely riddled with The Vid, although I don't think they have lost any significant starters on defense yet (assuming Ramsey is back).  Yeah tough call.

Right now my gut is just slightly leaning

Gibson>Penny

Aiyuk is another interesting one, you gotta love that matchup in your playoffs.  With Deebo playing so much in the backfield, which I expect to continue even if Mitchell comes back, it really gives Aiyuk a bump in usage.  His production was only mediocre until his walk-off TD but still, 11 targets was nice to see.  He is averaging 7 targets/game over his last six and has a TD in three of six games.  If Penny didn't have such an injury history I would absolutely favor him but I think Aiyuk has a solid floor and decent upside.

Aiyuk>Penny

Thanks Chaka for such a detailed answer / analysis!

 

[Loipz]

Penny>>>Jeudy - Jeudy has shown flashes of being a very good player but Denver has too many offensive weapons and they don't have a QB who can fully exploit them.  If they keep this core of Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant and Javonte and manage to land Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers in the off season they will be lethal.

I see the temptation in starting Penny over Gibson. I absolutely do, and this may be a coin toss for me. IMO Gibson has a much clearer path to 20+ touches and that has so much value.  With Kyle Allen possibly starting I think they lean on Gibson even more, and the Eagles defense will shade that way too.  The Rams can't key on Penny and they are definitely riddled with The Vid, although I don't think they have lost any significant starters on defense yet (assuming Ramsey is back).  Yeah tough call.

Right now my gut is just slightly leaning

Gibson>Penny

Aiyuk is another interesting one, you gotta love that matchup in your playoffs.  With Deebo playing so much in the backfield, which I expect to continue even if Mitchell comes back, it really gives Aiyuk a bump in usage.  His production was only mediocre until his walk-off TD but still, 11 targets was nice to see.  He is averaging 7 targets/game over his last six and has a TD in three of six games.  If Penny didn't have such an injury history I would absolutely favor him but I think Aiyuk has a solid floor and decent upside.

Aiyuk>Penny

Kyle Allen was put on the covid list today, just a heads up. 

 

[Largent72]

Final flex spot, PPR:

1) Gabriel Davis - home vs Panther. Saunders out, endzone targets, favourable match-up although could be over early and Buff cruises with running out the clock

2) Bourne - @ Indy. No issues with weather, competitive game that should have both teams moving the ball. 

3) Lazard - @ Baltimore. Increasing role, has the confidence of Arod. 

Appreciate any and all help

 

[Loomba]

0.5 PPR

Mixon or Aaron Jones?   Already starting Ekeler and have Rhomondre and D’Onta on the bench

Colts DST or Pats DST.  Points for turnovers and lose points for yards and points given up.

thanks.

 

[Saint]

Final flex spot, PPR:

1)  Gabriel Davis

2)  Bourne

3)  Lazard

I'm weighing Davis in a league, so this was helpful to look at this. Looking at their numbers, Buffalo has only thrown for 1 or 0 touchdowns in 3 games this season (PIT, JAX, NE), which were close defensive games (ironic that JAX is in there). Do I think CAR will be a defensive struggle?  Nope.  I expect Allen to have decent numbers and multiple touchdowns.  On any given week with Sanders, Davis was averaging 3-4 targets a game, whereas Sanders was getting 3-5 as well over the last few weeks.  The immediate beneficiary was Cole Beasley, followed by Dawson Knox, and then Gabriel Davis.  So while I like the fact that Sanders is out, I am seeing Davis as the #3/4 pass option in this offense.

Bourne on the other hand, has rushing and receiving yards.  He's #3 in targets, but leading the WR core in terms of yards and touchdowns.  Belicheck has them playing well and Mac Jones doesn't look like a rookie under center.  They will need to put points up to keep up with Indianapolis.

The irony is I also have MVS, so when I see Lazard, I ask, is he consistent week over week or is it a MVS week?  So my mind is thinking can we count on that week over week.  I don't think you can, so I would move Lazard down.

So all that being said, I think I would pick Bourne over Davis or Lazard as I think he will give you the best bet for yards and a score.

 

[habsfan]

For my last spot I have D'Onta Foreman, Berrios, Rondale Moore or Penny. I am leaning Foreman for floor.

I've had Moore all year and think I need to avoid another single digit point week. Nuk is out but we've already seen that movie and it didn't amount to much for Moore (plus Edmonds back). I think Penny gets the biggest slice of the pie now but he feels like a classic point chasing play.

 

[skinsrule05]

What do you think about Taysum Hill vs Tua?  4pt passing TDs. I’m leaning Tua just for safety. I feel his floor is higher. 

 

[jobarules]

What do you think about Taysum Hill vs Tua?  4pt passing TDs. I’m leaning Tua just for safety. I feel his floor is higher. 

In a 4 pts TD league I take the running QB every time. Tua hasnt scored 20 points since week 7 and that includes a game vs the Jets. Meanwhile Hill has finished as QB4 two weeks in a row and has never finished outside the top 12 in a game he has started. Hill definitely has the higher floor due to his rushing ability. Tua might have the higher ceiling though as he has better weapons to throw to. Both have great matchups. I had the same choice and chose Hill.

 

[Neal Cassady]

.5 PPR

QB:

Hurts vs Washington

Russell Wilson at Rams

Bridgewater vs Bengals

Flex (pick 1):

Tyler Lockett at Rams

Miles Sanders vs Washington 

Sony Michel vs Seattle

Wilson has struggled against the Rams, but Hurts is banged up.  I fear his mobility will be hindered, and that’s him main asset.  Actually hope Mishew starts, as the matchup with Washington is optimal.

Lockett is highest rated, but he has occasional low scoring weeks, and has burned me many times.  Sanders would be enticing if Howard is out.

TIA

 

[Largent72]

I'm weighing Davis in a league, so this was helpful to look at this. Looking at their numbers, Buffalo has only thrown for 1 or 0 touchdowns in 3 games this season (PIT, JAX, NE), which were close defensive games (ironic that JAX is in there). Do I think CAR will be a defensive struggle?  Nope.  I expect Allen to have decent numbers and multiple touchdowns.  On any given week with Sanders, Davis was averaging 3-4 targets a game, whereas Sanders was getting 3-5 as well over the last few weeks.  The immediate beneficiary was Cole Beasley, followed by Dawson Knox, and then Gabriel Davis.  So while I like the fact that Sanders is out, I am seeing Davis as the #3/4 pass option in this offense.

Bourne on the other hand, has rushing and receiving yards.  He's #3 in targets, but leading the WR core in terms of yards and touchdowns.  Belicheck has them playing well and Mac Jones doesn't look like a rookie under center.  They will need to put points up to keep up with Indianapolis.

The irony is I also have MVS, so when I see Lazard, I ask, is he consistent week over week or is it a MVS week?  So my mind is thinking can we count on that week over week.  I don't think you can, so I would move Lazard down.

So all that being said, I think I would pick Bourne over Davis or Lazard as I think he will give you the best bet for yards and a score.

well laid out, I appreciate the walk through. I have Bourne in for now and was flopping like a fish with Davis and matchup for Lazard had me waffling too. 

 

[Chaka]

Kyle Allen was put on the covid list today, just a heads up. 

Thanks.  Heinicke trending towards playing so I stand by my recco...for now.

 

[Chaka]

NOTE 12/16/21:  ​

 ​

I am having trouble keeping up with all the players being put on the Covid list.  And even if I knew them all it is incredibly difficult to project the impact of losing multiple situational players, starters are easier but still troublesome enough on their own.

If you see something that I may have missed please point it out.  Thanks @Loipz

 

[Saint]

What do you think about Taysum


Hill


vs Tua?  4pt passing TDs. I’m leaning Tua just for safety. I feel his floor is higher. 

Hill is not a glorious NFL QB, but he is a fantastic Fantasy QB.  His floor is extremely high with rushing yards and to be honest, there are maybe 5-6 QBs I would start over him (Mahomes, Herbert, Prescott, Rodgers, Allen).... So Hill all the way from my perspective.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I would like to see a practice report on Williams today but even if it is good I think Van Jefferson is probably the right call.  He's the hot hand and his three targets were his lowest since week 2. And he still managed a great game on those three targets.

I love Williams but he has clearly fallen off a massive cliff for production.  He still has great upside IMO but so does Jefferson and he should get more opportunities with OBJ possibly (probably?) out.

Van Jefferson>Mike Williams

ETA: FTR I had OBJ in my lineup over Williams before the Covid news

I also have to decide between Jefferson and Williams. Williams had a huge game against KC last time and Ekeler might not be as much of a factor. But without OBJ, somebody has to get those targets for the Rams. 

 

[Chaka]

Final flex spot, PPR:

1) Gabriel Davis - home vs Panther. Saunders out, endzone targets, favourable match-up although could be over early and Buff cruises with running out the clock

2) Bourne - @ Indy. No issues with weather, competitive game that should have both teams moving the ball. 

3) Lazard - @ Baltimore. Increasing role, has the confidence of Arod. 

Appreciate any and all help

I think you have to go with Bourne. He has good upside, a higher floor (most likely) he's getting more consistent opportunities and he's doing more with them.  He's also used a little bit in the running game.

Lazard would be my next choice, he has 4,6&7 targets over the last three and had a nice game v Bears. His upside is probably bigger than Bourne's but that hasn't really shown this season yet so it's very close as a practical matter.  These are the two I would flip-flop between.

Davis is simply too TD dependent and Allen distributes the ball a lot he has the most downside and the least upside IMO.

Bourne>Lazard>>Davis  But if your gut is telling you Lazard you should go with that.

 

[Chaka]

0.5 PPR

Mixon or Aaron Jones?   Already starting Ekeler and have Rhomondre and D’Onta on the bench

Colts DST or Pats DST.  Points for turnovers and lose points for yards and points given up.

thanks.

It's gotta be Mixon, right? He's getting 21 opportunities per game, he has 14 TDs on the season. The WRs in Cinci are tough to predict and everyone fawns on Burrow but Mixon is the offense IMO.

Jones is great and always has the potential for a three TD game but he has a cap on his production as long as Dillon is in the lineup.

Mixon>Jones>>the field

Pats>Colts I wouldn't get caught overthinking this decision. Pats defense has been dominant pretty much all year, I wouldn't bench them at this point.

 

[Chaka]

For my last spot I have D'Onta Foreman, Berrios, Rondale Moore or Penny. I am leaning Foreman for floor.

I've had Moore all year and think I need to avoid another single digit point week. Nuk is out but we've already seen that movie and it didn't amount to much for Moore (plus Edmonds back). I think Penny gets the biggest slice of the pie now but he feels like a classic point chasing play.

I presume this is full PPR otherwise Berrios wouldn't be a consideration, right?

Even with Hopkins out I couldn't trust Rondale Moore, too many moving parts in that offense.

Personally I like Penny over Foreman. It is absolutely chasing points, no question about that and you shouldn't have any expectation for 130 yards & 2 TDs.  But you shouldn't have that expectation for anyone.  What we do know is both of these guys are lead backs but they don't appear to be 20+ touch guys in their current offenses.  Both are on the road with tough matchups.  The Steelers have their backs against the wall and, IMO, that makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the league this week.  The Rams are on a slightly shorter week and are riddled with The Vid.  As I understand it they have not been able to run a practice this week and are doing everything by Zoom.  We also know that Penny is the starter, he is playing for his next contract and, IMO, he is a far more dynamic runner than Foreman. Foreman appears to be a classic Leroy Hoard type (not the funny one either). You need two yards, he'll get you three. You need four yards, he'll get you three. Obviously Penny makes us all worried that he will go down with injury before the lady finishes singing the Anthem.  That is the risk you run and I offer no insurance against injury.  But Penny is still the better play this week IMO.

Penny>Foreman>the others

 

[Gilroy34]

Playoff match up, PPR.  Choose 3 WR from:

D. Samuel

S. Diggs

H. Renfrow

C. Lamb

 

[Chaka]

What do you think about Taysum Hill vs Tua?  4pt passing TDs. I’m leaning Tua just for safety. I feel his floor is higher. 

I can see that but I still like Taysom>Tua

Taysom has only started a few games but he hasn't had a dud yet.  His feet will always generate a few points, he should also hit 200 yards passing and he hasn't had a game as a starter without at least two scores.  Tua may be safer, and he has the far better matchup but I am not sure if his probability to hit his floor outweighs Taysom's upside.

In my league Taysom has put up 19 & 21 points in his two starts this season, Tua's high water mark is 20 in week 7 v the Falcons and he hasn't exceeded 14 points since (10, 9, 14, 8 & 12).