Week 4 Suicide Pick Talk (1 Viewer)

[JSH21]

I know a lot of you will say Dallas, but I've already made up my mind to save them for next week when Cinci comes to town.

Right now I'm looking at Carolina at home vs Atlanta. Atlanta crushed two teams that USC could probably beat, and got demolished by the only team that had any sort of a defense in Tampa Bay. Ryan and Turner were both awful in that game. Atlanta is NOT a good 2-1 team and IMO Carolina is better than Tampa Bay (who smacked Atlanta around) on both sides of the ball.

Who do you guys like this week and why?

 

[mwaldo13]

This week, the Rams opponent. Remaining weeks, the Rams opponent. If you have already used SEA, SF or ARI, might I suggest the Lions opponent.

 

[The Gatekeeper]

I am going Broncos in one and Chargers in the other.

 

[FavreCo]

Have you watched KC play lately? It's not even remotely NFL quality. Go with the team playing them if at all possible. If you can't, then go with the Rams opponent like the previous poster said.

 

[sa37no1]

Im going Den this week

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I've already used BUF, so I can't fade STL this week.

DAL is tempting, but I hate to pick a divisional game, and it's not like WAS is a complete pushover. I'd rather save DAL for later.

KC, on the other hand, is a complete pushover, and DEN is obviously pretty good, so that's the direction I'm going in this week. I know it's a road game, but the Chiefs are just awful.

 

[higgins]

I'm going Carolina as well.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I've already used BUF, so I can't fade STL this week.

DAL is tempting, but I hate to pick a divisional game, and it's not like WAS is a complete pushover. I'd rather save DAL for later.

KC, on the other hand, is a complete pushover, and DEN is obviously pretty good, so that's the direction I'm going in this week. I know it's a road game, but the Chiefs are just awful.

I'm in this boat too. Used BUF last week. Don't normally take division games, but the Chiefs are JUST that bad, and the Broncos' offense is JUST that good. A good strategy going forwards is indeed to take an opponent of STL, DET or KC -- preferably not a division game. (The lone Cowboys' win in Jimmy Johnson's first year was against a pretty good Redskins team.)

I'm saving the Cowboys for when they play the Rams. Cowboys' pass offense vs. Rams' pass defense is one of the most lopsided matchups in league history.

 

[Marauder]

If you haven't used Buffalo yet they should be the obvious pick.

I have used them so it came down to Denver or Jacksonville. I don't like taking a team playing a division rival on the road so i went with Jax.

 

[awesomeness]

i'd stay away from dallas. Staying away from NFC East divisional games is a good way to go to be honest. The Redskins have upset the Cowboys several times over the years and Santana Moss usually tears them up.

I'd much rather use them when they play the Rams, 49ers or the Bengals later in the year.

 

[gkza]

Anyone apprehensive of Buffalo because they are on the road and should have mauled the Raiders?

I know ST.L is bad and Buffalo is a solid squad, but any reason at all to be cautious because of the fact that they are on the road?

 

[Jayrod]

Are you guys seriously considering Carolina or Dallas? Those are two good teams facing divsional opponents who both have winning records. Seriously? Why use up a quality team on a week when there are so many red flags? I'm pretty sure Dallas wins, but Carolina is very risky. Like someone else said, save Dallas for next week and then use Carolina in week 11 when Detroit comes to town.

My top choice this week is Jacksonville over Houston. I hate using divisional games, but Houston isn't good and have QB issues and Jacksonville still has their backs against the wall. Lose this game and it negates last weeks win and I'm sure Del Rio is pounding that message home.

My second choice would be New Orleans over San Francisco, but that would be taking a 1-2 team over a 2-1 team, which just seems silly.

I don't really like Denver over KC, because there are a lot of reasons why KC could win that one. Buffalo over St. Louis is solid, but a lot of people used them last week and I really try to avoid road teams whenver possible this early in the year....but man is St. Louis aweful.

 

[JSH21]

Besides Carolina, Jacksonville is also an option for me and I'm slowly changing my mind to them.

I do not like Buffalo at all. As bad as STL has looked I think they could very well win this one at home.

 

[freeannyong]

I would advice avoiding JAX and HOU like the plague. HOU has a very good track record against the Jags.

 

[tombonneau]

Denver and it's not even close. They might not cover the 9.5 line; I think KC will have a little fight in them, but in the end O'Tan-a-Shan >>> HURM?

 

[BespokeJort]

This week, the Rams opponent. Remaining weeks, the Rams opponent. If you have already used SEA, SF or ARI, might I suggest the Lions opponent.

been doing this with success all season so far (except jets over miami week 1)

 

[PatrickT]

Are you guys seriously considering Carolina or Dallas? Those are two good teams facing divsional opponents who both have winning records. Seriously? Why use up a quality team on a week when there are so many red flags? I'm pretty sure Dallas wins, but Carolina is very risky. Like someone else said, save Dallas for next week and then use Carolina in week 11 when Detroit comes to town.My top choice this week is Jacksonville over Houston. I hate using divisional games, but Houston isn't good and have QB issues and Jacksonville still has their backs against the wall. Lose this game and it negates last weeks win and I'm sure Del Rio is pounding that message home.My second choice would be New Orleans over San Francisco, but that would be taking a 1-2 team over a 2-1 team, which just seems silly.I don't really like Denver over KC, because there are a lot of reasons why KC could win that one. Buffalo over St. Louis is solid, but a lot of people used them last week and I really try to avoid road teams whenver possible this early in the year....but man is St. Louis aweful.

I was with you til you said JAX. HOU has played them strong in the past from what I understand.My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.Second choice for me is the same, NO, but I just can't make myself trust the Saints, even though this is a game they should win pretty handily. Denver is number 3, would be number 1 if they were home or maybe if KC was going to start Thigpen again.

 

[tombonneau]

Denver and it's not even close.

They might not cover the 9.5 line

I mean as "no other team is as close as a lock to win." Just because I don't think they will crush KC 49-3 doesn't make it any less of a lock for a suicide pick. I could see KC with a late backdoor cover and lose 28-20 or something, but Denver losing this game is highly unlikely.

 

[Raider Nation]

My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.

Tread carefully here, Patrick. I agree that Flacco could have a VERY difficult night, but Pittsburgh isn't the only team playing defense in this game. Baltimore's D looks nearly as ferocious as they did in 2000, and the Steelers O-line can't seem to block anyone. This is shaping up to be an ugly, almost unwatchable game.I'm going Carolina in one pool, and San Diego in the other.

 

[JSH21]

I thought I remembered Houston upsetting Jacksonville a couple times in the past few years. Anyone have the breakdown of their head to head matchups in the last 3 years or so?

 

[PatrickT]

My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.

Tread carefully here, Patrick. I agree that Flacco could have a VERY difficult night, but Pittsburgh isn't the only team playing defense in this game. Baltimore's D looks nearly as ferocious as they did in 2000, and the Steelers O-line can't seem to block anyone. This is shaping up to be an ugly, almost unwatchable game.

Near 2000 levels? Really? I haven't watched any games, but are they really being that dominant right now? Let's not forget they've faced a couple of shaky Cinci and Cleveland teams to this point.

 

[Raider Nation]

My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.

Tread carefully here, Patrick. I agree that Flacco could have a VERY difficult night, but Pittsburgh isn't the only team playing defense in this game. Baltimore's D looks nearly as ferocious as they did in 2000, and the Steelers O-line can't seem to block anyone. This is shaping up to be an ugly, almost unwatchable game.

Near 2000 levels? Really? I haven't watched any games, but are they really being that dominant right now? Let's not forget they've faced a couple of shaky Cinci and Cleveland teams to this point.

They can only play the teams on their schedule, but yes... they look incredible.

 

[KingPrawn]

My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.

Tread carefully here, Patrick. I agree that Flacco could have a VERY difficult night, but Pittsburgh isn't the only team playing defense in this game. Baltimore's D looks nearly as ferocious as they did in 2000, and the Steelers O-line can't seem to block anyone. This is shaping up to be an ugly, almost unwatchable game.

And no Parker for PIT

 

[PatrickT]

My first choice is PIT. Div game, which I like to avoid, but this week is fraught with div games. BAL is not a bad team, but it's time for Flacco to have his rookie moment and his first road game, against PIT, IN PIT, is just the place to have it. PIT D could have a huge game here.

Tread carefully here, Patrick. I agree that Flacco could have a VERY difficult night, but Pittsburgh isn't the only team playing defense in this game. Baltimore's D looks nearly as ferocious as they did in 2000, and the Steelers O-line can't seem to block anyone. This is shaping up to be an ugly, almost unwatchable game.

Near 2000 levels? Really? I haven't watched any games, but are they really being that dominant right now? Let's not forget they've faced a couple of shaky Cinci and Cleveland teams to this point.

They can only play the teams on their schedule, but yes... they look incredible.

Well, won't argue, I haven't seen them, but having seen the other two teams against non-Baltimore teams (discounting the latest Giants game, obviously, where cinci looks like they may have righted the ship a bit), those offenses aren't exactly lighting anyone else up either. Been waffling between Pit and NO the last 24 hours, we'll see.

 

[Bermuda_Chub]

Your Sannnnnnndiego SUPER-Chargerrrrssss!!!

 

[piratemike]

I'm going Jacksonville.

 

[JSH21]

Your Sannnnnnndiego SUPER-Chargerrrrssss!!!

I'm considering them as well. I think the way Oakland lost that game to Buffalo had to take a lot out of them.Just checked and Houston has beaten Jacksonville 3 out of the last 4 games. Ehh.

 

[Bermuda_Chub]

Your Sannnnnnndiego SUPER-Chargerrrrssss!!!

I'm considering them as well. I think the way Oakland lost that game to Buffalo had to take a lot out of them.Just checked and Houston has beaten Jacksonville 3 out of the last 4 games. Ehh.

It's a karmic imbalance of gross proportions. Plus the fans have turned/are turning on the team.

 

[higgins]

Are you guys seriously considering Carolina or Dallas?

Yes - I think Carolina is as close to a lock as there is this week.Carolina's schedule has been tough as ####:

@San Diego (Won 26-24)

Chicago (Won 20-17)

@ an 0-2 and angry Minnesota (Lost 10-20)

Atlanta's schedule has been:

Detroit

@Tampa Bay

Kansas City

Also, I don't think the following matchups are ideal, and could result in upsets:

Denver at Kansas City

Arrowhead is a huge advantage by itself; neither team has a good defense; if KC can control the clock by pounding LJ, things could break their way; Huard has history with their receivers as well.

Buffalo at St. Louis

TGreen knows Saunders' offense - I just wonder if he can stay healthy; STL is another team that could control the clock with SJax; Buffalo hasn't exactly been playing stellar no matter what their record says; they also have yet to open up the offense under TEdwards.

San Francisco at New Orleans

Neither team has a D, so it could be a matter of catching breaks; NO does have some injury issues including their OL, IIRC.

Houston at Jacksonville

JAX has OL injury issues, IIRC.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I'm taking Jax despite their past struggles w/ Houston because Jax is good, and it's probably the easiest home game on their schedule (Cleveland the only possible exception).

I know most people don't like to look that far ahead, which is fine....it's a personal policy that I'm comfortable with when the most popular alternative is apparently a road team with a bad defense in a division game going against a team that's now decided to start their competent QB.....

Go Chiefs!

 

[oddball]

Atlanta at Carolina

Arizona at N.Y. Jets

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Minnesota at Tennessee

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans

Houston at Jacksonville

Denver at Kansas City

Buffalo at St. Louis

San Diego at Oakland

Washington at Dallas

Philadelphia at Chicago (SNF)

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (MNF)

Of these, San Diego seems the safest. I already took PHI, BUF, AND NYG. As pointed out before, I'll save Dallas for later in the year under more favorable conditions.

 

[The Shizzle]

San Diego at Oakland.

 

[Notinuse]

Denver, and I don't see anyone else being close. The Chiefs are a mess and I think the Broncos have scored the most points in the NFL. I just don't envision KC winning the game. (I wouldn't bet the point spread though; as someone else said, KC could sneak into a late cover.)

 

[zed2283]

I'm pretty sure that Jax was 0-2 last year against Houston. I know because after they lost to them in Houston I felt confident taking them at home a few weeks later. Obviously, that game knocked me out of my pool.

I also agree it's better to stay away from divisional games.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Carolina should beat Atlanta, but they don't seem to play all that well at home for some reason.

I'm going with Dallas in one pool, and Jacksonville in the other. Not a fan of taking road teams in suicide pools.

Carolina / Atlanta is a divisional matchup. That's a tough pick.Wash/DAL is a very tough pick in a divisional matchup as well. If you think none of that matters, just look at MIA/NE last week to see how much a divisional game can supercede a point spread.

Most games this week look divisional, so I understand the struggles this week.

 

[Eat Sleep Sports]

BILLS and CHARGERS. Rams and Raiders suck. Chargers consistently beat the Raiders over the past several years and they are hungry.

 

[PatrickT]

Carolina should beat Atlanta, but they don't seem to play all that well at home for some reason.

I'm going with Dallas in one pool, and Jacksonville in the other. Not a fan of taking road teams in suicide pools.

Carolina / Atlanta is a divisional matchup. That's a tough pick.Wash/DAL is a very tough pick in a divisional matchup as well. If you think none of that matters, just look at MIA/NE last week to see how much a divisional game can supercede a point spread.

Someone is gonna need to explain something to me.I get the "division rival" thing. Teams are familiar with each other, yadda yadda. But what does being in the same division have to do with the fact that New England was clueless about how to stop Ronnie Brown? Miami had never shown that formation before. If the Dolphins were in the NFC West, does that mean Brown would have been held to 16 yards rushing?

At some point we have to lose this division rival crutch. Teams are teams, and the better one will win more often.

My take on it is that, in a divisional game, players just seem to put a little extra into it. It's rivalry, it's pride. It's a quicker path to the playoffs or a way to make your hated rival miss the playoffs. It's bragging rights. If you don't believe in divisional rivalries, explain why Miami always seems to save their best for the Pats. Or how Chicago managed to beat GB TWICE last year. Do not underestimate a divisional rivalry.

 

[Norseman]

I know a lot of you will say Dallas, but I've already made up my mind to save them for next week when Cinci comes to town.

Right now I'm looking at Carolina at home vs Atlanta. Atlanta crushed two teams that USC could probably beat, and got demolished by the only team that had any sort of a defense in Tampa Bay. Ryan and Turner were both awful in that game. Atlanta is NOT a good 2-1 team and IMO Carolina is better than Tampa Bay (who smacked Atlanta around) on both sides of the ball.

Who do you guys like this week and why?

Do you still think that way?Seriously, when people say a college team could beat a pro team, what are they thinking?

 

[Jayrod]

I wasn't aware of Jacksonville's struggles with Houston. I knew they lost to them last year, but Houston was a decent team last year. I didn't know it was twice.

Jeez, this is a tougher week than I first thought. Lots of teams that should win, but you know a couple of them will disappoint.

-Jacksonville has had key offensive injuries, Garrard has stunk it up and they lost both games to Houston last year

-New Orleans has just had too many injuries to make me very confident in them and San Fran has some confidence going and a decent enough offense to keep pace with the Saints.

-Denver's offense has been awesome, but their defense has been equally as aweful and they are going to Arrowhead. If the Chiefs can control the clock and get a turnover or two, they can win this game at home.

-Dallas seems like the best bet on paper, but Washington is good and this is the epiteme of divisonal rivalries...plus Dallas has a tendency to have letdowns (similar to USC).

-Carolina hasn't exactly set the world on fire on offense, just lost to an 0-2 team and Atlanta has a lot of confidence with a winning record, plus it is a divisonal game.

-San Diego has struggled, is on the road, and Oakland has a win and almost beat a very good Buffalo team. No thanks.

-Buffalo is on the road and they barely beat Oakland while St. Louis has made a QB switch to a vet who knows the offense well and they still have playmakers in SJax & Holt.

-Pittsburgh looked bad on offense last week and are facing a defense that may be even better AND they don't have Willie Parker

-Tennessee has a great defense, but a bad offense...just like Minnesota. This game could be decided by a turnover or special teams, that's too close to call.

I'm currently deciding between Jax, Dal & Car. I avoid road teams as much as possible and especially divisional road games. I'm scared of the Dallas/Washington rivalry, so I think they are out. That leaves Jax & Car. I originally like Jax, but Carolina looks inviting. Atlanta's wins were against very bad teams and they have a new coach and many new players (especially on offense)...that kind of minimizes the divisional familiarity factor. My initial pick was Jacksonville, but I'm now leaning toward Carolina.

 

[Jayrod]

Carolina should beat Atlanta, but they don't seem to play all that well at home for some reason.

I'm going with Dallas in one pool, and Jacksonville in the other. Not a fan of taking road teams in suicide pools.

Carolina / Atlanta is a divisional matchup. That's a tough pick.Wash/DAL is a very tough pick in a divisional matchup as well. If you think none of that matters, just look at MIA/NE last week to see how much a divisional game can supercede a point spread.

Someone is gonna need to explain something to me.I get the "division rival" thing. Teams are familiar with each other, yadda yadda. But what does being in the same division have to do with the fact that New England was clueless about how to stop Ronnie Brown? Miami had never shown that formation before. If the Dolphins were in the NFC West, does that mean Brown would have been held to 16 yards rushing?

At some point we have to lose this division rival crutch. Teams are teams, and the better one will win more often.

If you don't understand division rivalries than you don't know much about sports. It happens in every sport. A team plays their best game against a rival. The coaches use the entire playbook and hold nothing back. Players play with more emotion and are more apt to play through injury. It is more like a playoff game than the other regular season games because you are in direct competition with that team for a playoff spot. The gloves are off and its no holds barred. Pride and envy make players more hungry to beat divisional opponents.

Games aren't played on paper. They are played on the field with the players' bodies and minds. When something increases the focus of the player's mind and the energy in the player's body, that player plays better than in other games. Psychology is a big part of winning and losing, even for pro atheletes.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

My top choice this week is Jacksonville over Houston.

Me too.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'm currently deciding between Jax, Dal & Car. I avoid road teams as much as possible and especially divisional road games. I'm scared of the Dallas/Washington rivalry, so I think they are out. That leaves Jax & Car. I originally like Jax, but Carolina looks inviting. Atlanta's wins were against very bad teams and they have a new coach and many new players (especially on offense)...that kind of minimizes the divisional familiarity factor. My initial pick was Jacksonville, but I'm now leaning toward Carolina.

That's about where I am too. Jax or Car.

 

[PatrickT]

I have no logical argument against Carolina. I'm trying hard not to be a full blown homer. But, in my best Ben Crenshaw impersonation:

I have a good feeling about Sunday. That's all I'm gonna say.

 

[Jayrod]

Carolina should beat Atlanta, but they don't seem to play all that well at home for some reason.

I'm going with Dallas in one pool, and Jacksonville in the other. Not a fan of taking road teams in suicide pools.

Carolina / Atlanta is a divisional matchup. That's a tough pick.Wash/DAL is a very tough pick in a divisional matchup as well. If you think none of that matters, just look at MIA/NE last week to see how much a divisional game can supercede a point spread.

Someone is gonna need to explain something to me.I get the "division rival" thing. Teams are familiar with each other, yadda yadda. But what does being in the same division have to do with the fact that New England was clueless about how to stop Ronnie Brown? Miami had never shown that formation before. If the Dolphins were in the NFC West, does that mean Brown would have been held to 16 yards rushing?

At some point we have to lose this division rival crutch. Teams are teams, and the better one will win more often.

If you don't understand division rivalries than you don't know much about sports.

Oh, thank you. It's always a treat to be educated on the finer points of sports by a sports fan such as..... you.You should probably take the Skins this week. After all, they are a hated rival of Dallas so the game could go either way.

Your welcome, GB. I do what I can to help out around here and it is always nice when someone is appreciative.And I think I'll avoid the Redskins because you never know what could happen in a divsional game, but thanks for the advice. The general point of a survival pool is to avoid risky picks, but I'm sure you knew that since you are a Raider fan and no one should ever question your knowledge of the game no matter what brilliant analysis you type out around here such as "Teams are teams, and the better one will win more often".

 

[tombonneau]

I don't like taking division games as much as the next guy, but this is an odd week where all the large lines are divisional games. I'd rather take a team I think will win in a divisional game than a team I don't feel as good about but I pick any way simply because it is not a divisional game.

Seems like pretty simple logic to me.

 

[tombonneau]

I don't like taking division games as much as the next guy, but this is an odd week where all the large lines are divisional games. I'd rather take a team I think will win in a divisional game than a team I don't feel as good about but I pick any way simply because it is not a divisional game.Seems like pretty simple logic to me.

DON'T DO IT!!! IT'S A DIVISION GAME... YOU CAN'T WIN!!!

 

[PatrickT]

If anyone would like to check the score of the KC/DEN game, and still has questions about the importance of divisional rivalries, go ahead and post them here.

Idiot that I am, didn't follow my own advice and made a last minute switch to Denver. BRILLIANT! Would also appear my feeling on Atlanta over Carolina was actually a bad case of the runs. I'm really not liking Mularkey at the moment, but that's for another thread.

 

[Raider Nation]

If anyone would like to check the score of the KC/DEN game, and still has questions about the importance of divisional rivalries, go ahead and post them here.

With all due respect, Kansas City played much better today. Had Denver played better, they likely would have won.I realize I'm alone on the island in my opinion, but blaming a loss on a division rivalry is an easy excuse. K.C. kicked their ###.

 

[zed2283]

If anyone would like to check the score of the KC/DEN game, and still has questions about the importance of divisional rivalries, go ahead and post them here.Idiot that I am, didn't follow my own advice and made a last minute switch to Denver. BRILLIANT! Would also appear my feeling on Atlanta over Carolina was actually a bad case of the runs. I'm really not liking Mularkey at the moment, but that's for another thread.

at people who think divisional games don't matter. Games are played on the field, not on paper.

 

[Jayrod]

If anyone would like to check the score of the KC/DEN game, and still has questions about the importance of divisional rivalries, go ahead and post them here.

With all due respect, Kansas City played much better today. Had Denver played better, they likely would have won.I realize I'm alone on the island in my opinion, but blaming a loss on a division rivalry is an easy excuse. K.C. kicked their ###.

The issue isn't Denver laying down. Maybe you are missing the point.The issue is Kansas City. This isn't the same KC team we saw in weeks 1-3. Why is that? Perhaps because they know this Denver team. Perhaps because there was a little more emotion there for the players trying to beat the top dog in their division. This is a team they HAVE to catch to make the playoffs. It is a playoff game for KC.Do you really not get it, or are you just being obtuse?