***Week 5 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.

So, here they are:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Atlanta Falcons (+8) vs. Tennessee Titans - (1 star)

Harrington has been moving the ball for the Falcons, and I don't see Tennessee putting up too big a number. I think Atlanta can hang within a touchdown.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

New England vs. Cleveland - OVER (48) (2 stars)

Hey Patriots, you disappointed me. Only 34 points last week? What happened to the automatic 38?

I think it comes back to 38 or more this week, but the Browns are scoring. I don't see 48 being a problem.



Green Bay (-3) vs. Chicago (2 stars)

Brett Favre must be loving this. His team is 4-0, of course, but that's not why. They have NO RUNNING GAME!!! Favre must be grinning every play, knowing that he's getting to throw it 35+ times a week with certainty.

Chicago just isn't that good, and as long as Green Bay's defense performs like they have (and no one kicks to Hester) this should be a win by 7 or more for the Pack.

***THREE STAR GAMES***



Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Washington Redskins (3 stars)

I keep looking for the "gotcha" in this game. Detroit is on the road and outdoors, but they are 3-1. The Lions should take care of business in every aspect here. We know they win the passing offense, but KJ is back and there may even be a little ground game. Washington's offense is offensive - Brandon Lloyd can't catch a cold and it comes down to throws to RBs and Cooley. Ask Philip Rivers how that works out. Does any DC wake up screaming "Oh no, I have to design coverage to contain Antwaan Randle El!!". Of course not, and neither should you.

Detroit not just covers, but wins.

of the Week - Detroit

Enjoy.

Week 4 was kinder, as I was 2 of 3 and 1/2 point away from getting all 3 correct.

I'm not thrilled with the options this week, so even though I'm "calling" four games, I don't have a lot of big confidence in any but Detroit winning.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Two games stick out to me.

I like Pittsburgh (-5) at home. They are going to want to take out their frustrations of a week ago. The Seahawks are marginal against the run and I expect FWP to get a boatload of carries and exploit the everloving crap out of their rush defense.

Also I love Tampa Bay (+9.5) currently...history shows us that when two teams from different conferences get together and their is a big line like what we see here...typically the underdog covers at something like 72%...we had Arizona as a 9.5 point underdog at Baltimore 2 weeks ago...we all saw how that turned out. Teams form different conferences usually are not very familiar with theo ther and you get the ingredients for a closer game. Granted Dungy knows the Bucs but that team is nothing like the one he left behind.

Dallas has won 45-35, 37-20, 31-13, 35-7 last week...they are winning by double digits every week...can't really see how they don't paste the Bills. Buffalo has a rookie under center and their defense is swiss cheese.