Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 8 - I had a winning week last week until Denver imploded. Such is life picking NFL games. Still, I think I'm getting a good feel for the league now, but there are still some tough games. Once again I handicapped all of the games this week before looking at any Vegas Lines - always a good idea - and I saw some definite differences of opinion. That tells me that it is time to pick a few more games. So...... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins - (1 star)
I know that Miami was on a roll with upsets until Baltimore last week, but Buffalo has very quietly won a lot of games this year. This is their first divisional game, and many still don't believe that they are as good as tehy really are. I expect Lynch and Evans to score and that should be good enough to win. Roscoe Parrish is also back to return punts, which he will do against a bad special teams unit. 24-13, Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (UNDER 42.5) - (1 star)
See above.
New England Patriots (-7.5) vs. St. Louis Rams - (1 star)
The Patriots are starting to play better with Cassel and on defense, as evidenced on Monday Night vs. Denver. The Rams are not an outdoor team, and if SJax is less than full strength, this could get ugly. I give the Rams a puncher's chance but between the Pats and the weather, I expect NE to win this one by 10 or more.
New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers (UNDER 46) - 1 star
Teams don't do well out of their routines this year. The weather in London may also play a factor, but I'm thinking that both teams will be a little off of their respective games. The biggest issues are no Reggie Bush for the Saints and also no Chambers for the Chargers. Kicking might also be a problem in a stadium known for wind issues. Expect a 23-17 type contest.
Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Philadelphia Eagles - (1 star)
Look at me - I can pick against the Eagles! Seriously, I had this game as inside of a touchdown. I don't quite see how Philly will blow out the Falcons, which is what this line is almost asking for. Consider that Atlanta can run the ball with two backs and that they're moving it well with Matt Ryan, and I think they can get 17 or 20. Philly can certainly hit the 30 mark, but Kevin Curtis is in his first game back and Westbrook is also a returning starter. Akers is also less than a lock in kicking, and no one is better even at his age than Jason Elam. Did I mention that Atlanta's also 5-1? Expect a closer game than many would expect, but Philadelphia can eek out an important victory. 27-23 Philadelphia.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (UNDER 45) - (1 star)
This game started out as a 46.5 point total, and now it's down to 45. That's why it's important to get in on the early numbers if you like them. Still, I have this one about 40 or 41, so I still like it (at 46 or more I'd like it at the 2-star level - but I still hate unders). The Texans can score, no question - but can the Bengals? Even if the Texans get 27 or 34, you're asking for almost two touchdowns from a team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and with a ground game spearheaded by Cedric Benson. Think about that for a moment. And yes, Shayne Graham has issues. Perfect. 27-10, Houston.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (UNDER 41.5) - (1 star)
Another bad team vs. a decent team. JT O'Sullivan will use every asset at his disposal (except maybe that enigma named Vernon Davis) to keep his starting job and get new head coach Mike Singletary his first career win as a team leader. The players have to love Singletary getting his shot, but more importantly they had to love the Tampa Bay / Seattle game film breakdown session. Seneca Wallace, meet Patrick Willis. Or should I say "meat"? Frank Gore gores this defense, 27-10.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Washington Redskins (-7.5) at Detroit Lions - (2 stars)
Another head-scratcher here. The Redskins did lose badly to the Rams two weeks ago and just eeked out a home win against a struggling Cleveland team, but these are the Lions. Yes, the Lions. Clinton Portis could win this game himself, but expect the defense to have a field day against Wrong Way Orlovsky. Washington could always lose, but I say they win this one pretty easily. I don't see the Lions being competitive this year - I mean week. Whatever. Washington wins this scrimmage 31-10.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. No big lock yet, but some nicer action for sure.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 8 - I had a winning week last week until Denver imploded. Such is life picking NFL games. Still, I think I'm getting a good feel for the league now, but there are still some tough games. Once again I handicapped all of the games this week before looking at any Vegas Lines - always a good idea - and I saw some definite differences of opinion. That tells me that it is time to pick a few more games. So...... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins - (1 star)
I know that Miami was on a roll with upsets until Baltimore last week, but Buffalo has very quietly won a lot of games this year. This is their first divisional game, and many still don't believe that they are as good as tehy really are. I expect Lynch and Evans to score and that should be good enough to win. Roscoe Parrish is also back to return punts, which he will do against a bad special teams unit. 24-13, Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (UNDER 42.5) - (1 star)
See above.
New England Patriots (-7.5) vs. St. Louis Rams - (1 star)
The Patriots are starting to play better with Cassel and on defense, as evidenced on Monday Night vs. Denver. The Rams are not an outdoor team, and if SJax is less than full strength, this could get ugly. I give the Rams a puncher's chance but between the Pats and the weather, I expect NE to win this one by 10 or more.
New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers (UNDER 46) - 1 star
Teams don't do well out of their routines this year. The weather in London may also play a factor, but I'm thinking that both teams will be a little off of their respective games. The biggest issues are no Reggie Bush for the Saints and also no Chambers for the Chargers. Kicking might also be a problem in a stadium known for wind issues. Expect a 23-17 type contest.
Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Philadelphia Eagles - (1 star)
Look at me - I can pick against the Eagles! Seriously, I had this game as inside of a touchdown. I don't quite see how Philly will blow out the Falcons, which is what this line is almost asking for. Consider that Atlanta can run the ball with two backs and that they're moving it well with Matt Ryan, and I think they can get 17 or 20. Philly can certainly hit the 30 mark, but Kevin Curtis is in his first game back and Westbrook is also a returning starter. Akers is also less than a lock in kicking, and no one is better even at his age than Jason Elam. Did I mention that Atlanta's also 5-1? Expect a closer game than many would expect, but Philadelphia can eek out an important victory. 27-23 Philadelphia.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (UNDER 45) - (1 star)
This game started out as a 46.5 point total, and now it's down to 45. That's why it's important to get in on the early numbers if you like them. Still, I have this one about 40 or 41, so I still like it (at 46 or more I'd like it at the 2-star level - but I still hate unders). The Texans can score, no question - but can the Bengals? Even if the Texans get 27 or 34, you're asking for almost two touchdowns from a team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and with a ground game spearheaded by Cedric Benson. Think about that for a moment. And yes, Shayne Graham has issues. Perfect. 27-10, Houston.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (UNDER 41.5) - (1 star)
Another bad team vs. a decent team. JT O'Sullivan will use every asset at his disposal (except maybe that enigma named Vernon Davis) to keep his starting job and get new head coach Mike Singletary his first career win as a team leader. The players have to love Singletary getting his shot, but more importantly they had to love the Tampa Bay / Seattle game film breakdown session. Seneca Wallace, meet Patrick Willis. Or should I say "meat"? Frank Gore gores this defense, 27-10.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Washington Redskins (-7.5) at Detroit Lions - (2 stars)
Another head-scratcher here. The Redskins did lose badly to the Rams two weeks ago and just eeked out a home win against a struggling Cleveland team, but these are the Lions. Yes, the Lions. Clinton Portis could win this game himself, but expect the defense to have a field day against Wrong Way Orlovsky. Washington could always lose, but I say they win this one pretty easily. I don't see the Lions being competitive this year - I mean week. Whatever. Washington wins this scrimmage 31-10.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. No big lock yet, but some nicer action for sure.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
