* Detroit Lions -3
The Lions finally return starting QB Matthew Stafford this week, a great benefit to what is already one of the highest scoring teams in the NFC. RB Jahvid Best has taken full advantage of the bye week to get healthy, and this offense looks ready to explode against a very mediocre Washington defense. While Hall had the game of his life last week against Cutler with four interceptions, he remains one of the weakest cornerbacks in the NFL and will likely be exposed once again this week. Statistically, the Lions really don't look like anything special on offense. They're well below average in yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt, yet they still find ways to keep the chains moving and put points up on the scoreboard. The Redskins are ranked 23rd against the pass and 29th against the run, and I think the Detroit offense will have no problem at all taking advantage of this weak unit coming off of a bye week. The Redskins offense is nothing special at all as they're average at both passing and rushing the ball, while also the 8th worst team in the NFL in scoring efficiency. Look for the Detroit defense to get a couple more stops than Washington, as the Lions take this game by at least a touchdown.
* Seattle Seahawks +2.5
* Seattle/Oakland UNDER 42.5
The Raiders exploded for 59 points in 3 quarters last week against the Broncos, an impressive showing despite the fact that it is the Broncos. Unfortunately for Oakland, Seattle boasts a much better defense than Denver. Seattle enters this game playing at a very high level, as they are 10th against the pass and 2nd against the run. Oakland's superb performance last week came mostly from the running game, and while Oakland ranks 5th in yards per rush attempt this season Seattle's run defense should definitely keep them fairly contained. With pressure swinging back to Oakland's passing game, which is 5th worst in the NFL, Seattle should have no problem limiting the amount of damage Oakland can do on offense. On the offensive side of the ball, Seattle hasn't been spectacular themselves. Seattle is the 4th worst passing team and 7th worst rushing team in the NFL, although the majority of those rushing stats are without newly acquired RB Marshawn Lynch. While both teams have similarly poor offenses, the edge I see for Seattle is that they're matched up against a clearly inferior defense. Oakland is ranked 18th against the pass and 31st against the run, assuming the Seahawks aren't down by 21 points as fast as the Broncos were last week they'll be able to come at Oakland all game with a balanced attack. I think this is the week Seattle's running game gets on track and they put together a couple nice drives. Ultimately though, I see Seattle's defense being the swinging point in this contest as the Seahawks win a low scoring game outright.
* Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37
While unders have been hitting at a terrible clip this season and it pains me to keep picking them, this week there are some seriously inflated totals and this is one of them. This game has all the setups to be low scoring. For starters, we have two underrated defenses going against two struggling offenses. The Panthers finally returned QB Matt Moore to the lineup last week and put up a season high 23 points against the 49ers, given the low level the 49ers' defense has been playing at so far this year though I'd be surprised to see them top 20 points again in this one, or even reach that mark. RB Deangelo Williams will likely be sitting this game out, a blow to the offense because backup Jonathan Stewart has been playing at a very low level so far this year, only running for 3.0 yards per carry. The passing offense ranks 30th in yards per pass attempt, even if you only consider weeks in which Moore started that number stays the same. St. Louis has made big strides on defense this season, as they rank 5th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed. While their rush defense still has a ways to go, with no Deangelo Williams this week Carolina is going to have trouble exploiting that. As for the Rams' offense, their passing game has been nothing special all year as they're ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Carolina's pass defense is slightly above average ranking 13th, but their real strength is stopping the run as they're 6th in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Rams have only been running for 3.84 yards per carry this season, 23rd in the NFL. The Panthers should keep RB Steven Jackson bottled up fairly well, along with the entire St. Louis offense. The only threat to this under is multiple turnovers by each QB in their own territory, I'm willing to take this risk as even then I think it'll take a few for this total to go over. Total points could very well stay in the 20s in this game as I love this total to stay under.
That's all for Sunday, I'm strongly considering a Monday Night pick and will make my decision tomorrow. Good luck to everyone this week!