Werth signs with Nats (1 Viewer)

[Eephus]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

 

[TobiasFunke]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

StrasburgZimmermann#3 type through free agencyVarious candidates for other back end spots, including Lannan, Maya, Stammen, Solis, etc.Bullpen is usually put together on a year-by-year basis, but the Nationals are set up pretty well for the long term with Storen and Clippard under club control for the foreseeable future and Sean Burnett through at least 2012.I'm a so you should rightfully take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I think they're setting themselves up pretty well for 2013 and 2014 even if they don't make any more huge splashes. Now, 2011 is a different story. As is anything beyond 2015 with that giant Werth contract and presumably an even giant-er one for Zimmerman on the horizon.

 

[DCThunder]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

StrasburgZimmermann#3 type through free agencyVarious candidates for other back end spots, including Lannan, Maya, Stammen, Solis, etc.Bullpen is usually put together on a year-by-year basis, but the Nationals are set up pretty well for the long term with Storen and Clippard under club control for the foreseeable future and Sean Burnett through at least 2012.I'm a so you should rightfully take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I think they're setting themselves up pretty well for 2013 and 2014 even if they don't make any more huge splashes. Now, 2011 is a different story. As is anything beyond 2015 with that giant Werth contract and presumably an even giant-er one for Zimmerman on the horizon.

Your plan is based on two major assumptions: 1. Strasburg recovers from TJ surgery in 2012 to be the pitcher he was on the way to becoming and 2. Harper can hit major league (not Class A) pitching.Also, had Strasburg faced any team a second time before he was hurt? I didn't think so, but I could be wrong. As you know, sometimes the second time through the leauge is way different from the first.

 

[Eephus]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

StrasburgZimmermann#3 type through free agencyVarious candidates for other back end spots, including Lannan, Maya, Stammen, Solis, etc.Bullpen is usually put together on a year-by-year basis, but the Nationals are set up pretty well for the long term with Storen and Clippard under club control for the foreseeable future and Sean Burnett through at least 2012.I'm a so you should rightfully take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I think they're setting themselves up pretty well for 2013 and 2014 even if they don't make any more huge splashes. Now, 2011 is a different story. As is anything beyond 2015 with that giant Werth contract and presumably an even giant-er one for Zimmerman on the horizon.

Your plan is based on two major assumptions: 1. Strasburg recovers from TJ surgery in 2012 to be the pitcher he was on the way to becoming and 2. Harper can hit major league (not Class A) pitching.Also, had Strasburg faced any team a second time before he was hurt? I didn't think so, but I could be wrong. As you know, sometimes the second time through the leauge is way different from the first.

The third assumption is that the Nats can hang on to Ryan Zimmerman beyond 2013

 

[DCThunder]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

StrasburgZimmermann#3 type through free agencyVarious candidates for other back end spots, including Lannan, Maya, Stammen, Solis, etc.Bullpen is usually put together on a year-by-year basis, but the Nationals are set up pretty well for the long term with Storen and Clippard under club control for the foreseeable future and Sean Burnett through at least 2012.I'm a so you should rightfully take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I think they're setting themselves up pretty well for 2013 and 2014 even if they don't make any more huge splashes. Now, 2011 is a different story. As is anything beyond 2015 with that giant Werth contract and presumably an even giant-er one for Zimmerman on the horizon.

Your plan is based on two major assumptions: 1. Strasburg recovers from TJ surgery in 2012 to be the pitcher he was on the way to becoming and 2. Harper can hit major league (not Class A) pitching.Also, had Strasburg faced any team a second time before he was hurt? I didn't think so, but I could be wrong. As you know, sometimes the second time through the leauge is way different from the first.

The third assumption is that the Nats can hang on to Ryan Zimmerman beyond 2013

Well, there is that...

 

[TobiasFunke]

I think he fits well with what they have and what they need- if you were to venture into the depths of the Nationals thread in this forum, you'd see I've been pimping an aggressive run at Werth for like a year now. Not sure who else is available this year or next- I assume they got in touch with Crawford before doing this and were rejected, and I don't see any other stars who really fill a need in this class or the next one. They basically have openings at 1B and in the OF, and I don't see many more guys in this class or the next that they could have realistically chased. Fielder would probably be the best option, but I'm guessing they want a quality defensive 1B to help out their young but talented infield.Keep in mind that everything they're doing is targeted at making runs between 2012 and 2015, with 2013 and 2014 being the prime years. They're going to get a lefty 1B with some power- either Pena or LaRoche or maybe Loney if all else fails- and Harper hits lefty, so with Zimmerman and Werth they'll be able to go R-L-R-L in the heart of the order. What's more, they'll probably all be plus defensive players. With Werth signed on and assuming reasonable development from the club's youngsters, the only hole I see in this team during those years is a quality leadoff man and maybe a #3 type starter. The latter can be found in free agency pretty much any season.

Well, that about covers it except for that whole pitching thing

StrasburgZimmermann#3 type through free agencyVarious candidates for other back end spots, including Lannan, Maya, Stammen, Solis, etc.Bullpen is usually put together on a year-by-year basis, but the Nationals are set up pretty well for the long term with Storen and Clippard under club control for the foreseeable future and Sean Burnett through at least 2012.I'm a so you should rightfully take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I think they're setting themselves up pretty well for 2013 and 2014 even if they don't make any more huge splashes. Now, 2011 is a different story. As is anything beyond 2015 with that giant Werth contract and presumably an even giant-er one for Zimmerman on the horizon.

Your plan is based on two major assumptions: 1. Strasburg recovers from TJ surgery in 2012 to be the pitcher he was on the way to becoming and 2. Harper can hit major league (not Class A) pitching.Also, had Strasburg faced any team a second time before he was hurt? I didn't think so, but I could be wrong. As you know, sometimes the second time through the leauge is way different from the first.

The third assumption is that the Nats can hang on to Ryan Zimmerman beyond 2013

My "plan" is obviously based on multiple assumptions. One is hanging on to Ryan Zimmerman, which I don't think is a big stretch considering his affinity for the region- he's from northern NC, went to college at UVA and has always been embraced by the fans and has spoken well of the team. And in any case, half of my "plan" addressed 2012 and 2013, when he'll be with the club no matter what, and if they're competing at that point it's hard to imagine him leaving. The second is that Strasburg heals and is effective. I believe somewhere around 85% or more of TJ surgery patients heal and return to similar levels of performance. Based on this, it seemed reasonable to project him as a #1 starter. I did so based on scouting reports and his college and minor league performance, not a handful of major league starts. I'm not the only person who projects him as a solid #1 at a minimum, assuming he heals properly.A third is that Harper will be a stud. This is probably the biggest reach of the three, but is also totally in line with every scouting report and projection for the kid. And he's already hit pitching better than Class A in the Arizona Fall League (usually guys considered close to major-league ready)- in fact he's never faced A level pitching, so I'm not sure where that comment came from.Obviously I'm going to be as wildly optimistic in my Nats projection, just as Phillies and Orioles fans like you guys are going to be wildly pessimistic. But note that for all its optimism, my "plan" also doesn't include any other FA acquisitions in the next couple years beyond a #3 type starter, even though the Nats certainly have the means to spend far, far more than that.ETA: Eephus, not sure why I thought you were a Phillies fan. Sorry.

 

[TobiasFunke]

For those that don't follow the team closely, the Nats were reportedly the highest bidders for Teixiera last year, and for De La Rosa this year. Despite what Keith Law thinks, they had to severely overpay at some point to start the ball rolling on Washington as a viable destination for prime free agents. Simply offering the most money by a couple million wasn't working. Now with Werth on for the long term along with Zimmerman, Harper and Strasburg, among others, they become a potential contender that hopefully won't have to go this far over market for the next target.

I don't think that's the argument here though. They definitely had to get the ball rolling, but if you're going to overpay someone drastically, it should be a cornerstone franchise guy. Paying Werth may attract others to the team in future seasons, but why not break the bank for a premier player?Maybe that's the difference of opinion. I'm not of the belief that Werth is a premier player. If someone believes he is though, then this wasn't a bad signing.

This is where I'm at. If the Nats had given Tex $200MM for 8 years they would have been guilty of overpaying (and by a good bit) of the next highest bidder. But at least they would have gotten a cornerstone player. I don't see Werth as being that guy or being worth that. His #1 comparable on baseball reference is Brad Hawpe. Of the players still playing, his other comparables out of the top 10 are Hart, Granderson, Juan Rivera, Willingham, and Ludwick. Those are some good hitters but they're not franchise builders.

They tried. The Yankees paid him 180 for 8 and its been widely reported that the Nats outbid the Yankees, so they probably were pretty close to that.I understand the argument. But the Nats have been terrible for pretty much their entire existence save 2 or 3 months in 2005. The town hasn't had anything to be excited about baseball-wise since the 1930s. They now have a plan in place to field a good baseball team in the near future in one of the largest markets in the country, a place that's desperate for a winner. Here's how the Post's baseball writer put it today:

For the Nats, it was simple. By the '16 and '17 seasons, they will have succeeded in building a winner, with a bigger fan base that generates higher attendance and revenues, with players such as Werth, Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper and a half-dozen fine '10 rookies at its core. Or they won't.

If they succeed, the extra investment in Werth will look like a bargain. If they don't, does it really matter whether you jump off the roof of a five-, six- or seven-story building? Either way, the Lerners will be billionaires. And they had the guts to take the leap.

Pretty much sums it up.

 

[Sammy3469]

For those that don't follow the team closely, the Nats were reportedly the highest bidders for Teixiera last year, and for De La Rosa this year. Despite what Keith Law thinks, they had to severely overpay at some point to start the ball rolling on Washington as a viable destination for prime free agents. Simply offering the most money by a couple million wasn't working. Now with Werth on for the long term along with Zimmerman, Harper and Strasburg, among others, they become a potential contender that hopefully won't have to go this far over market for the next target.

I don't think that's the argument here though. They definitely had to get the ball rolling, but if you're going to overpay someone drastically, it should be a cornerstone franchise guy. Paying Werth may attract others to the team in future seasons, but why not break the bank for a premier player?Maybe that's the difference of opinion. I'm not of the belief that Werth is a premier player. If someone believes he is though, then this wasn't a bad signing.

This is where I'm at. If the Nats had given Tex $200MM for 8 years they would have been guilty of overpaying (and by a good bit) of the next highest bidder. But at least they would have gotten a cornerstone player. I don't see Werth as being that guy or being worth that. His #1 comparable on baseball reference is Brad Hawpe. Of the players still playing, his other comparables out of the top 10 are Hart, Granderson, Juan Rivera, Willingham, and Ludwick. Those are some good hitters but they're not franchise builders.

How about if they overpay for Cliff Lee? Is he a cornerstone player?

 

[Eephus]

For those that don't follow the team closely, the Nats were reportedly the highest bidders for Teixiera last year, and for De La Rosa this year. Despite what Keith Law thinks, they had to severely overpay at some point to start the ball rolling on Washington as a viable destination for prime free agents. Simply offering the most money by a couple million wasn't working. Now with Werth on for the long term along with Zimmerman, Harper and Strasburg, among others, they become a potential contender that hopefully won't have to go this far over market for the next target.

I don't think that's the argument here though. They definitely had to get the ball rolling, but if you're going to overpay someone drastically, it should be a cornerstone franchise guy. Paying Werth may attract others to the team in future seasons, but why not break the bank for a premier player?Maybe that's the difference of opinion. I'm not of the belief that Werth is a premier player. If someone believes he is though, then this wasn't a bad signing.

This is where I'm at. If the Nats had given Tex $200MM for 8 years they would have been guilty of overpaying (and by a good bit) of the next highest bidder. But at least they would have gotten a cornerstone player. I don't see Werth as being that guy or being worth that. His #1 comparable on baseball reference is Brad Hawpe. Of the players still playing, his other comparables out of the top 10 are Hart, Granderson, Juan Rivera, Willingham, and Ludwick. Those are some good hitters but they're not franchise builders.

How about if they overpay for Cliff Lee? Is he a cornerstone player?

He's good enough but I wouldn't build around a starting pitcher. It kinda worked for the Giants this year but I wouldn't do it.

It worked for the Giants because of good drafting and player development. The big bucks, cornerstone pitcher didn't make the playoff roster.