Wes Welker to be active for Training Camp (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

Just heard from a reliable source that Wes Welker WILL NOT be on the preseason PUP list and will be an active participant in training camp.

Bump Welker up accordingly.

 

[Fodasme69]

Just heard from a reliable source that Wes Welker WILL NOT be on the preseason PUP list and will be an active participant in training camp.Bump Welker up accordingly.

 

[zadok]

That means no PUP during the season either. Full speed ahead my little PPR darling!

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Edelman will be even cheaper. He's still the play here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Now reported on 98.5 The SPorts Hub, but no link yet.

 

[sholditch]

right, why spend a 3-4th on a 1200 yard receiver when you can spend a 12-13th on a 400-yard receiver. Good luck riding Edelman to a championship.

 

[rizzler]

IMO, welker will be a shell of his former self after this injury... its been discussed numerous times as to why, so I wont get into further than that....

would I take him on my roster? sure... anywhere past the 7th round.

Too much risk for me... I can see that knee saying ADIOS once again with the style of game he has.

no denying the talent tho

 

[sholditch]

And the fact that his rehab has progressed way faster than normal indicates that his injury is much worse than expected? Actually I wouldn't mind hearing how that makes sense.

 

[Steed]

http://www.nesn.com/2010/07/report-wes-wel...n-pup-list.html

 

[sholditch]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.

FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

 

[Todem]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

I come here to talk football not take too much advice on Fantasy Football. Great board. Lot's of great posters, and the information is very useful as far as depth charts, some sleepers etc. I do advise when asked or if their are interesting discussions. But rarely do i follow too many peoples lead on players. I think the whole point of Fantasy Football is your the GM you make the decisions. Gathering information is a critical part of that. But boy you can get some skewed info here.Opinions are opinions we all have them.But I agree on Welker 100% Everything I was reading outside of here was pointing to a way ahead of schedule rehab and that Welker was looking strong to open the season on the active roster.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

I was one that was cautious because people who I know personally that follow the team in the trenches told me to be cautious. These are folks that get paid money to be there and observe and report on stuff, not just idle chatter on message boards like this one.I was getting first hand reports that Welker, while running routes and participating, was running at half to 3/4 speed and rounding off routes. So no hard cutting and he was running at slightly faster than jogging.I would still be cautious heading forward in that some people will project him for 120 catches and 1200 yards, which I still think is unrealistic. But to each his own, I guess.I would relish Welker coming back in Week 1 and grabbing 10 receptions. The question now is what reasonable expectations should be for him this season . . .

 

[ATC1]

Welker's ADP is at the point where i would take him regardless of the information coming out of New England. Since when have they ever reported a player's true status before game time? Now Welker will be going too high in redrafts for me.

Yes, he is recovering better than expected, but he has not put everything together yet to simulated actual game speed. Thomas Davis was "progressing" in Minicamp and one wrong step ended his season. While I don't like to predict injuries for players, he is more of an injury risk then any other WR and this news will force you to take that injury risk sooner.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

Wow, I COMPLETELY disagree here. Too cautious? He's coming off major knee surgery just a few months ago. Are we forgetting that even when guys come back from this, they often don't have their full explosiveness right away? This would be a near record recovery. Why would it have been smart for us to assume that in April or May? We update our rankings and projections in near real time. For me, I assumed 8-10 games played as the most LIKELY not knowing when he would show back up. If he didnt' participate in camp, then almost everyone would ratchet him way down their rankings. In the opposite scenario, such as we're hearing today, obviously many will bump him back up to near full value.To have assumed a full, healthy and productive 16 games without any evidence that he would start camp on time would have been based on nothing more than hope rather than history and deduction. It's always about triangulating every piece of incremental news and putting that into the equation.

 

[sholditch]

That makes sense, but really what reason do we have to expect that he is more likely to be reinjured?

@Jason I'm just saying that this place was much more cautious in their outlook than most other outlets, especially the mainstream which tend to do a lot less analysis and aren't worried about advice that can help fantasy owners. In this case, FBG's cautious outlook (that he wouldn't start camp and possibly the season) is at least wrong in part 1. ESPN has been saying he's been on pace to start camp all along and they were right. Surely you don't take issue with that?

 

[identikit]

IIRC, NE brought Welker back too quickly last year. Ended up missing a couple games right after that first game.

Hopefully it won't happen again.

 

[bostonfred]

I would relish Welker coming back in Week 1 and grabbing 10 receptions. The question now is what reasonable expectations should be for him this season . . .

Yeah, just because he's not on the PUP list doesn't mean he will be starting week one and playing every snap. It's entirely possible that he sits the first six weeks anyways - just because he's off the PUP list doesn't guarantee he will be able to play, it just means that they're willing to commit a spot on the 53 man roster to him if he is able to play, which is another way of saying, this roster isn't so deep that we're afraid to cut someone six weeks earlier if it means a chance that Welker can start week 4. So while this is definitely reason for optimism, and the best news we could hope for so far, we still don't know what he'll look like in a month or two. I just don't see how he could be making sharp cuts in September and not be risking reinjury.

 

[ATC1]

That makes sense, but really what reason do we have to expect that he is more likely to be reinjured?

In the tail end of an ACL reconstruction the hardest part for a athletic trainer is holding back a player that feels like he is ready to play a game tomorrow. There is a point where you can gain too much confidence. News outlit sources see what you can do and everyone gets excited the closer we get to the season so I figure if he looks good his value will only go up.

 

[dagwood]

I would relish Welker coming back in Week 1 and grabbing 10 receptions. The question now is what reasonable expectations should be for him this season . . .

Yeah, just because he's not on the PUP list doesn't mean he will be starting week one and playing every snap. It's entirely possible that he sits the first six weeks anyways - just because he's off the PUP list doesn't guarantee he will be able to play, it just means that they're willing to commit a spot on the 53 man roster to him if he is able to play, which is another way of saying, this roster isn't so deep that we're afraid to cut someone six weeks earlier if it means a chance that Welker can start week 4. So while this is definitely reason for optimism, and the best news we could hope for so far, we still don't know what he'll look like in a month or two. I just don't see how he could be making sharp cuts in September and not be risking reinjury.

I will go on record to say he will be listed as "questionable" for week 1.

 

[sholditch]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

 

[dagwood]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

In his case, I think you think for the "how he looks" type commentary; and what drills he is not participating in.Is he sitting out of the contact drills, etc.

 

[ATC1]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

 

[sholditch]

and if so that would be reasonable to think he could start out slow or even miss the first few? Or could it just as easily be that the Pats and he and taking it easy to avoid any risk of reinjury?

It's just that I haven't read one negative report about his recovery. In fact, every report I have read, mostly from firsthand observers, have been positively glowing about his progress. So other than the general thought that ACL tears are hard to recover from, which is too general to draw any real conclusions from as we've seen it go both ways with players, is there any actual reason at all at this point to be down on his prospects, or even skeptical?

 

[dagwood]

and if so that would be reasonable to think he could start out slow or even miss the first few? Or could it just as easily be that the Pats and he and taking it easy to avoid any risk of reinjury?It's just that I haven't read one negative report about his recovery. In fact, every report I have read, mostly from firsthand observers, have been positively glowing about his progress. So other than the general thought that ACL tears are hard to recover from, which is too general to draw any real conclusions from as we've seen it go both ways with players, is there any actual reason at all at this point to be down on his prospects, or even skeptical?

Bottom line is, you won't know until you actually see him going 100% in a game situation.He is the classic high risk / high reward pick.

 

[ATC1]

and if so that would be reasonable to think he could start out slow or even miss the first few? Or could it just as easily be that the Pats and he and taking it easy to avoid any risk of reinjury?It's just that I haven't read one negative report about his recovery. In fact, every report I have read, mostly from firsthand observers, have been positively glowing about his progress. So other than the general thought that ACL tears are hard to recover from, which is too general to draw any real conclusions from as we've seen it go both ways with players, is there any actual reason at all at this point to be down on his prospects, or even skeptical?

No reason to be skeptical except for the fact that you are basing his improvement on local hommerism. Reporters have a job to get fans to keep reading. You are not going to hear that his rehab is progressing as expected. What they want to hear is if he will be ready for the season and everything they see in his progression is that he will. Reporters or even coaches can not see the mechanics at this point in the rehab process and know for sure if he will be ready. Welker and the medical staff probably don't know how he will react to the next step in the rehab process yet.

 

[David Yudkin]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

Smart money would pass whether you see him or not. Realistically, how many players at any position come back at the same level (in this case rushed by "normal" standards) in their first year? I realize every case is different, but I would welcome examples of players at any skill position (obviously WR would be ideal) that didn't miss a beat their first year back from an ACL injury. I ask because I can't remember players that fit the bill. I recall Jerry Rice . . . he might be a good example, but even his numbers weren't really on par with his other ungodly numbers. Hard to tell as he was already getting past his prime.

 

[ATC1]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

Smart money would pass whether you see him or not. Realistically, how many players at any position come back at the same level (in this case rushed by "normal" standards) in their first year? I realize every case is different, but I would welcome examples of players at any skill position (obviously WR would be ideal) that didn't miss a beat their first year back from an ACL injury. I ask because I can't remember players that fit the bill. I recall Jerry Rice . . . he might be a good example, but even his numbers weren't really on par with his other ungodly numbers. Hard to tell as he was already getting past his prime.

I expect to see some hesitation in his game, hence I would not take him as early as he will be going if he is off the preseason PUP.

 

[zadok]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

Smart money would pass whether you see him or not. Realistically, how many players at any position come back at the same level (in this case rushed by "normal" standards) in their first year? I realize every case is different, but I would welcome examples of players at any skill position (obviously WR would be ideal) that didn't miss a beat their first year back from an ACL injury. I ask because I can't remember players that fit the bill. I recall Jerry Rice . . . he might be a good example, but even his numbers weren't really on par with his other ungodly numbers. Hard to tell as he was already getting past his prime.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=230384

 

[Sweet Love]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

Wow, I COMPLETELY disagree here. Too cautious? He's coming off major knee surgery just a few months ago. Are we forgetting that even when guys come back from this, they often don't have their full explosiveness right away? This would be a near record recovery. Why would it have been smart for us to assume that in April or May? We update our rankings and projections in near real time. For me, I assumed 8-10 games played as the most LIKELY not knowing when he would show back up. If he didnt' participate in camp, then almost everyone would ratchet him way down their rankings. In the opposite scenario, such as we're hearing today, obviously many will bump him back up to near full value.To have assumed a full, healthy and productive 16 games without any evidence that he would start camp on time would have been based on nothing more than hope rather than history and deduction. It's always about triangulating every piece of incremental news and putting that into the equation.

It is funny because I have felt all along that FBG staffers in general were too BULLISH on the prospect of his early return. I am looking at the Fantasy Index mock drafts (by experts from multiple publications) and he went in the 7th round and the majority of the experts questioned that pick including the guy who took him. In the experts rankings he was not listed in the top 25 behind Moss and Edelman from his own team...until this news broke today, who has been touting that he would be "as good as new"?? I still am bearish on him and now know there is no way he will be on any of my teams given the way people feel about him as he will go much higher than I value him at.Out of curiousity, with this news, what type of projects do people have for him in 2010?

 

[CommuterMan]

I would relish Welker coming back in Week 1 and grabbing 10 receptions. The question now is what reasonable expectations should be for him this season . . .

Yeah, just because he's not on the PUP list doesn't mean he will be starting week one and playing every snap. It's entirely possible that he sits the first six weeks anyways - just because he's off the PUP list doesn't guarantee he will be able to play, it just means that they're willing to commit a spot on the 53 man roster to him if he is able to play, which is another way of saying, this roster isn't so deep that we're afraid to cut someone six weeks earlier if it means a chance that Welker can start week 4. So while this is definitely reason for optimism, and the best news we could hope for so far, we still don't know what he'll look like in a month or two. I just don't see how he could be making sharp cuts in September and not be risking reinjury.

I will go on record to say he will be listed as "questionable" for week 1.

In NE, who isn't listed as 'questionable' each week??

 

[Sweet Love]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

In PPR, over the past couple of years, I do not believe he was ever considered a 1st rounder...how is it a steal if you take him in the 2nd round (where he would traditionally go), right after reconstructive knee surgery?

 

[KellysHeroes]

very encouraging... I own Wes in a couple of leagues and I hope they do hold him back in the 1st 2 games.

 

[sholditch]

and if so that would be reasonable to think he could start out slow or even miss the first few? Or could it just as easily be that the Pats and he and taking it easy to avoid any risk of reinjury?It's just that I haven't read one negative report about his recovery. In fact, every report I have read, mostly from firsthand observers, have been positively glowing about his progress. So other than the general thought that ACL tears are hard to recover from, which is too general to draw any real conclusions from as we've seen it go both ways with players, is there any actual reason at all at this point to be down on his prospects, or even skeptical?

No reason to be skeptical except for the fact that you are basing his improvement on local hommerism. Reporters have a job to get fans to keep reading. You are not going to hear that his rehab is progressing as expected. What they want to hear is if he will be ready for the season and everything they see in his progression is that he will. Reporters or even coaches can not see the mechanics at this point in the rehab process and know for sure if he will be ready. Welker and the medical staff probably don't know how he will react to the next step in the rehab process yet.

Really this would only be true if every beat writer report were glowing, which isn't the case. Plus a reporter cares about his credibility.

 

[sholditch]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

Wow, I COMPLETELY disagree here. Too cautious? He's coming off major knee surgery just a few months ago. Are we forgetting that even when guys come back from this, they often don't have their full explosiveness right away? This would be a near record recovery. Why would it have been smart for us to assume that in April or May? We update our rankings and projections in near real time. For me, I assumed 8-10 games played as the most LIKELY not knowing when he would show back up. If he didnt' participate in camp, then almost everyone would ratchet him way down their rankings. In the opposite scenario, such as we're hearing today, obviously many will bump him back up to near full value.To have assumed a full, healthy and productive 16 games without any evidence that he would start camp on time would have been based on nothing more than hope rather than history and deduction. It's always about triangulating every piece of incremental news and putting that into the equation.

It is funny because I have felt all along that FBG staffers in general were too BULLISH on the prospect of his early return. I am looking at the Fantasy Index mock drafts (by experts from multiple publications) and he went in the 7th round and the majority of the experts questioned that pick including the guy who took him. In the experts rankings he was not listed in the top 25 behind Moss and Edelman from his own team...until this news broke today, who has been touting that he would be "as good as new"?? I still am bearish on him and now know there is no way he will be on any of my teams given the way people feel about him as he will go much higher than I value him at.Out of curiousity, with this news, what type of projects do people have for him in 2010?

I'd say 1150 and 6

 

[kremenull]

I would not assume that this news just automatically translates in WW simply picking up right where he left off. It just amazes me how people tend to ignore the fact that this is an ACL tear (at minimum) and reconstruction to the knee, less than 8 months removed from the actual tear (injured on Jan 3, 2010), probably only around 6-7 months from surgery, although I don't have the exact date of the surgery. I think it is foolish to believe he'd instantly be the same Wes Welker prior to the injury for quite some time, and it just may take all season for him to round into form. Time to temper expectations or face becoming extremely disappointed.

 

[dagwood]

I would relish Welker coming back in Week 1 and grabbing 10 receptions. The question now is what reasonable expectations should be for him this season . . .

Yeah, just because he's not on the PUP list doesn't mean he will be starting week one and playing every snap. It's entirely possible that he sits the first six weeks anyways - just because he's off the PUP list doesn't guarantee he will be able to play, it just means that they're willing to commit a spot on the 53 man roster to him if he is able to play, which is another way of saying, this roster isn't so deep that we're afraid to cut someone six weeks earlier if it means a chance that Welker can start week 4. So while this is definitely reason for optimism, and the best news we could hope for so far, we still don't know what he'll look like in a month or two. I just don't see how he could be making sharp cuts in September and not be risking reinjury.

I will go on record to say he will be listed as "questionable" for week 1.

In NE, who isn't listed as 'questionable' each week??

My point exactly.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

Wow, I COMPLETELY disagree here. Too cautious? He's coming off major knee surgery just a few months ago. Are we forgetting that even when guys come back from this, they often don't have their full explosiveness right away? This would be a near record recovery. Why would it have been smart for us to assume that in April or May? We update our rankings and projections in near real time. For me, I assumed 8-10 games played as the most LIKELY not knowing when he would show back up. If he didnt' participate in camp, then almost everyone would ratchet him way down their rankings. In the opposite scenario, such as we're hearing today, obviously many will bump him back up to near full value.To have assumed a full, healthy and productive 16 games without any evidence that he would start camp on time would have been based on nothing more than hope rather than history and deduction. It's always about triangulating every piece of incremental news and putting that into the equation.

It is funny because I have felt all along that FBG staffers in general were too BULLISH on the prospect of his early return. I am looking at the Fantasy Index mock drafts (by experts from multiple publications) and he went in the 7th round and the majority of the experts questioned that pick including the guy who took him. In the experts rankings he was not listed in the top 25 behind Moss and Edelman from his own team...until this news broke today, who has been touting that he would be "as good as new"?? I still am bearish on him and now know there is no way he will be on any of my teams given the way people feel about him as he will go much higher than I value him at.Out of curiousity, with this news, what type of projects do people have for him in 2010?

I'd say 1150 and 6

How many receptions are projecting? Because if it is anywhere 90 (which traditionally for Welker, your TD/yardage projections would indicate that), it would assume he will have his 2nd best year ever while returning from the injury. I don't mean to be a jerk or downer, but I just don't see him bouncing back like this.

 

[AngryPatriot]

IMO, welker will be a shell of his former self after this injury... its been discussed numerous times as to why, so I wont get into further than that....would I take him on my roster? sure... anywhere past the 7th round. Too much risk for me... I can see that knee saying ADIOS once again with the style of game he has.no denying the talent tho

Shell of his former self? LOL He looked quick a month ago. Welker is a different kind of cat in every way. Please continue to doubt him, he only grows stronger. He is a target on every radar.

 

[ATC1]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

In PPR, over the past couple of years, I do not believe he was ever considered a 1st rounder...how is it a steal if you take him in the 2nd round (where he would traditionally go), right after reconstructive knee surgery?

He was #2 WR last year missing the 2nd and 3rd week of the season. If he is 100% compared to last year he will be a steal in the 2nd round. I fully anticipate him having some hesitation though.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, welker will be a shell of his former self after this injury... its been discussed numerous times as to why, so I wont get into further than that....would I take him on my roster? sure... anywhere past the 7th round. Too much risk for me... I can see that knee saying ADIOS once again with the style of game he has.no denying the talent tho

Shell of his former self? LOL He looked quick a month ago. Welker is a different kind of cat in every way. Please continue to doubt him, he only grows stronger. He is a target on every radar.

Welker was running at 50%-60% when we saw his film of him at mini camp. From many folks that were there, it was a moral victory that he was out there, but he was a shell of his formal self AT THAT TIME. Clearly he is improving at time goes on, and if he doesn't suffer a set back he should be an intriguing proposition.

 

[AngryPatriot]

You're a gentleman and scholar and possibly an "intriguing" politician, lol I thought he looked surprisingly quick but like you say, all things considered. Welker seems like one of those incredibly driven type of people/players, ONE LOUSY KNEE WILL NOT STOP HIM!!!!

 

[sholditch]

I think this clearly indicates how listening to this site in particular can cloud judgment. I've been reading from other sources that Welker was running cutting, and on pace for being active in camp. The overwhelming impression if you only read opinions from this board combined with analysis of news from staffers here was that there was a very good chance he would start the season on the PUP, but really this is the only place I have seen that.

FBG staff and posters were taking a cautious approach, but possibly too cautious.

Wow, I COMPLETELY disagree here. Too cautious? He's coming off major knee surgery just a few months ago. Are we forgetting that even when guys come back from this, they often don't have their full explosiveness right away? This would be a near record recovery. Why would it have been smart for us to assume that in April or May? We update our rankings and projections in near real time. For me, I assumed 8-10 games played as the most LIKELY not knowing when he would show back up. If he didnt' participate in camp, then almost everyone would ratchet him way down their rankings. In the opposite scenario, such as we're hearing today, obviously many will bump him back up to near full value.To have assumed a full, healthy and productive 16 games without any evidence that he would start camp on time would have been based on nothing more than hope rather than history and deduction. It's always about triangulating every piece of incremental news and putting that into the equation.

It is funny because I have felt all along that FBG staffers in general were too BULLISH on the prospect of his early return. I am looking at the Fantasy Index mock drafts (by experts from multiple publications) and he went in the 7th round and the majority of the experts questioned that pick including the guy who took him. In the experts rankings he was not listed in the top 25 behind Moss and Edelman from his own team...until this news broke today, who has been touting that he would be "as good as new"?? I still am bearish on him and now know there is no way he will be on any of my teams given the way people feel about him as he will go much higher than I value him at.Out of curiousity, with this news, what type of projects do people have for him in 2010?

I'd say 1150 and 6

How many receptions are projecting? Because if it is anywhere 90 (which traditionally for Welker, your TD/yardage projections would indicate that), it would assume he will have his 2nd best year ever while returning from the injury. I don't mean to be a jerk or downer, but I just don't see him bouncing back like this.

90 receptions would be his worst year in a Pats uniform by a minimum of 22 catches and a max of 33. Where are you getting your numbers?http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/WelkWe00-3.php

 

[Sweet Love]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

In PPR, over the past couple of years, I do not believe he was ever considered a 1st rounder...how is it a steal if you take him in the 2nd round (where he would traditionally go), right after reconstructive knee surgery?

He was #2 WR last year missing the 2nd and 3rd week of the season. If he is 100% compared to last year he will be a steal in the 2nd round. I fully anticipate him having some hesitation though.

I am not doubting his prowess (when healthly), but I doubt outside of Boston, the Texas Tech campus and his father's local sports bar, he has never been taken in the first round of any FF draft (under 16 teams). (1) I am not saying this is right or not, just fact. (2) Had he not been injured, I STILL think he would have been considered a 2nd rounder as his TD numbers are low (7 in the past two years) compared to his peers. So I STEAL in the 2nd after he shredded his knee, I think not.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I was stunned to find his perceived value fell off a cliff this offseason.

2 1PPR dynasty leagues I'm in, he was dealt for:

Trade 1: Manningham & Matt Moore

Trade 2: Tony Gonzalez and a late Round 1 pick (Edit: was 1.11)

Even the startups, I saw him going in Round 7 and beyond this offseason. I believe he's heck of a lot safer pick (knee and all) than quite a few of the Round 2-3 RB's that'll go in dynasty leagues.

 

[ATC1]

So what can we look for in camp as far as indicators? I would assume that he'll run with the first team or not at all. Obviously if he isn't a full participant throughout camp that's one, but suppose he is. Is that an indicator the other way or not at all?

I'll take a close look at rotation with the ones during preseason games. Also I would like to see with my own eyes his acceleration bursts, cuts, stops. Not a writer for the team. If he still gets the same amount of separation in his crisp routes, I'd steal him in the 2nd round. If there is any hesitation or he comes out for certain packages or downs and distance, I'll pass.

In PPR, over the past couple of years, I do not believe he was ever considered a 1st rounder...how is it a steal if you take him in the 2nd round (where he would traditionally go), right after reconstructive knee surgery?

He was #2 WR last year missing the 2nd and 3rd week of the season. If he is 100% compared to last year he will be a steal in the 2nd round. I fully anticipate him having some hesitation though.

I am not doubting his prowess (when healthly), but I doubt outside of Boston, the Texas Tech campus and his father's local sports bar, he has never been taken in the first round of any FF draft (under 16 teams). (1) I am not saying this is right or not, just fact. (2) Had he not been injured, I STILL think he would have been considered a 2nd rounder as his TD numbers are low (7 in the past two years) compared to his peers. So I STEAL in the 2nd after he shredded his knee, I think not.

I was driving a point that I am not writing him off this season, but I will temper expectations until I see him in preseason. If he shows me his usual prowess I won't hesitate to draft him in the 2nd. If I feel he will not be there when I pick in the 3rd.

 

[VaTerp]

and if so that would be reasonable to think he could start out slow or even miss the first few? Or could it just as easily be that the Pats and he and taking it easy to avoid any risk of reinjury?

It's just that I haven't read one negative report about his recovery. In fact, every report I have read, mostly from firsthand observers, have been positively glowing about his progress. So other than the general thought that ACL tears are hard to recover from, which is too general to draw any real conclusions from as we've seen it go both ways with players, is there any actual reason at all at this point to be down on his prospects, or even skeptical?

I would say there is a TON of reason to be skeptical of Welker this season.Maybe I'm missing something here as I have not done nearly as much prep work this summer as I have in year's past. But I don't think it's too general to say that Rbs and WRs tend to struggle the first year after ACL surgery. I thought that's been pretty well documented. I know Ronnie Brown returned pretty well after tearing his ACL in October.

I would like to see more examples of guys (RBs and WRs) returning after a LATE season ACL tear and performing close to the same level the following season. I very well could be missing something and I know there are always medical advances but I just cant imagine someone like Welker, who's game is so reliant on quickness and change of direction, being 100% in September after shredding his ACL AND MCL in January.

 

[Adebisi]

From my contacts, the odds are still that he starts the regular season on the regular season PUP list and will miss the first 6 weeks.

Just heard from a reliable source that Wes Welker WILL NOT be on the preseason PUP list and will be an active participant in training camp.

 

[jonessed]

Recovery time on these types of injuries is pretty standard. There are certainly varying degrees of injury and rehab, but the human body is still the human body. Either Welker is a small medical miracle or the press is being overly optimistic. Either is possible, but I really think the latter is more probable.

 

[Don Quixote]

Mike Reiss tweeted that Welker was placed on the "active/physically unable to perform list" by the Patriots. But described it as more procedural.

 

[David Yudkin]

Mike Reiss tweeted that Welker was placed on the "active/physically unable to perform list" by the Patriots. But described it as more procedural.

I also was emailed by someone something similar yesterday that he might start the first few days of camp on the preseason PUP list but he was not expected to stay there very long.For those that are not aware, a player needs to be placed on the preseason PUP list and stay on it all of training camp to qualify for the regular season PUP list (where he would have to miss 6 regular season weeks at a minimum). If a player does not start preseason on that list (or comes off at any point in training camp), the team cannot then put him on the regular season PUP list.