Anderson was QB #3 through week 8 last season. And not all QBs had their bye by that time (Anderson did).
So the issue is whether or not his second half performance was (a) poor and (b) more representative of what to expect than his first 7 games. Let's look at his season after week 8 last year. Here are those 9 games:
9 SEA W 33-30 (OT) - 29/48 (60.4%) 364 (7.58 ypa) 0 TD 1 int - 18.3 fantasy points (FBG scoring)
10 @PIT L 31-28 - 16/35 (45.7%) 123 (3.51 ypa) 3 TD 0 int - 24.6
11 @BAL W 33-30 (OT) - 24/38 (63.2%) 274 (7.21 ypa) 0 TD 1 int - 17.9
12 HOU W 27-17 - 24/35 (68.6%) 253 (7.23 ypa) 2 TD 1 int - 22.6
13 @ARI L 27-21 - 21/41 (51.2%) 304 (7.42 ypa) 2 TD 2 int - 24.2
14 @NYJ W 24-18 - 16/29 (55.2%) 185 (6.38 ypa) 2 TD 1 int - 19.6
15 BUF W 8-0 - 9/24 (37.5%) 137 (5.71 ypa) 0 TD 0 int - 6.8
16 @CIN L 19-14 - 29/48 (60.4%) 251 (5.23 ypa) 2 TD 4 int - 17.2
17 SF W 20-7 - 11/20 (55.0%) 152 (7.60 ypa) 1 TD 1 int - 11.6
In week 9, Anderson led Cleveland to an OT win over Seattle. He led two TD drives in the 4th quarter, going 10/14 plus 1/2 on two point conversion throws. Anderson was 2/2 in OT and added a 10 yard run, as he led the drive for the winning FG. He threw for 364 yards but 0 TDs, with Lewis running in 4 TDs from the 1 or 2 yard line. Good game.
In week 10, Anderson threw 3 first half TDs, leading Cleveland to a 21-6 lead, but had a terrible second half. Good fantasy game, but not as good an NFL game.
In week 11, Anderson won at Baltimore, which was fighting for the playoffs. He led a short drive for the tying FG at the end of regulation, and led a short drive for the winning FG in OT, completing his last 6 passes in doing so. Good NFL game, but not a particularly good fantasy game.
In week 12, Anderson had 22.6 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in a win. Good game.
In week 13, Anderson had a bad game on the road, with 2 interceptions, including a pick 6, and a fumble. But he still scored 24.2 fantasy points. And consider this: on the last play of regulation, he completed a 37 yard pass to Winslow in the end zone, and Winslow was ruled out of bounds. It was controversial, with some thinking the forceout rule should have been applied. How different would Anderson's game look if he were 22/41 for 341 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 interceptions, and he had thrown the game winning TD?
In week 14, Anderson had 19.6 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in a win. Good game.
In week 15, Anderson had a poor game through no fault of his own. From the ESPN recap: "...in blizzard-like conditions better suited for the Iditarod sled-dog race... The snow began falling -- actually blowing sideways -- off Lake Erie about 1 1/2 hours before kickoff and by game time, Browns Stadium had been transformed into the world's largest snow globe... "It was like something on the Discovery Channel about the North Pole," said Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch, a Californian... With wind gusts up to 40 mph and visibility limited, throwing the ball was nearly impossible and both teams had to rely on their running games to move the ball. But even that was tough as players struggled to get traction on the slippery, snow-covered surface." Anderson had only 6.8 fantasy points. Again, he managed a win, as the Browns eliminated the Bills from playoff contention and kept themselves in the race.
In week 16, Anderson had 17.2 fantasy points, but had a bad game in a road loss, with 4 picks. However, note that weather was again a factor. From the ESPN recap: "With heavy winds affecting the passing and kicking games, Cincinnati was saved by its rushing game and Kenny Watson... Like Anderson, Carson Palmer also struggled with the gusting wind, going 11-of-21 for 115 yards with two interceptions and one touchdown. "I never really got a good sense of which way it was blowing," Palmer said. "It was really swirling. It was an ugly game, and a tough one to play in if you're trying to throw the football."" I wouldn't give him a free pass for 4 picks, but at least there was some mitigation. And he did have a shot at the end zone on the final play from 29 yards out that could have won the game.
In week 17, Anderson had only 11.6 fantasy points, but didn't have a bad game in a win. The Browns had the game in hand all day. Plus, Anderson had only 7 attempts in the first half, thanks to (1) two long returns by Cribbs, including a TD, and (2) Quinn played the final series of the half (and had 8 attempts in that series).
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Now, all that said, I'm not saying Anderson is Joe Montana. But I do think people tend to underrate his performance last season. Was any single player more instrumental in the Browns' unexpectedly good record? Heck, he threw for 3787/29 with an 82.5 QB rating in his first full season as a starter, and he is 24.
He only had 2 bad fantasy games all season in games he started, and there were mitigating factors for both. Now, that said, Quinn is obviously still around, and playing in Cleveland will expose him to potential poor weather games every year.
In those last 9 games, he was QB10, and Favre was one of those ahead of him and is obviously now retired. FBG's expert redraft ranking currently has him ranked as QB9, right in line with his performance over those final 9 games. His "poor" stretch last season was those 9 games, when he was QB10; he was QB3 in weeks 1-8... so his FBG ranking is essentially ignoring his upside, which he showed last season. And as far as I can tell, his situation has not worsened in any way.
