The first thing, I think, is to be willing to keep an open mind as to where value can come from. I've read message boards for 10 years and have been in leagues for a million years, and one thing that is an absolute given is that MOST people are closed minded. You have to be able to rise above the naysayers and think for yourself, and if you can't do that you will always be talked out of taking a chance that pays off big (by the way, this is just as true in life).
Can a WR who was just a 2nd round pick go from a rookie year of 21-272-3 to a soph year of 119-1781-13? Can an undrafted TE who was better known as a basketball player go from a rookie year of 24-389-2 to a soph year of 81-964-13 and continue on to become the perennial #1 guy at his position for years? Can a 7th round WR, the 252nd player taken in his draft class, surpass 1st and 2nd round WRs already on the roster to start in his rookie season, and post 168-2240-19 in his first 30 games? Can a UDFA running back, cut by the team he's been with for 4 years because a young stud RB was drafted, find a new team where he goes on to put up over 6500 total yards and 56 TDs the next three years? Isaac Bruce, Antonio Gates, Marques Colston, and Priest Holmes did those things, and on what were generally average to poor teams before they emerged. We also know the Warner story, from NFL cut to grocery clerk to arena league to NFL MVP. We know Brady was a 6th round pick. We know UDFA Ryan Grant was not on a roster when 2007 began, then languished until week 8 while Wynn, Jackson, and Morency took their turns, then went on to 950 yards and 8 TDs in 10 games once he got his chance. Terrell Davis was a 6th rounder. And on and on.
You find value first and foremost by keeping your eyes and your mind open to possibilities, reading the news DAILY, and ignoring those who are always going to be there, in the majority, to tell you it can't happen.
But that's vague, isn't it. What we'd love is rules of thumb. We'd love something quick and easy, some sort of bell or siren that will go off to tell us when and where to find value. Problem is, as with most things in life, there are basically two ways for good things to happen to you in terms of finding value others haven't already found ahead of you. One, you can get lucky. And two, you can obtain knowledge. The good news is that the more knowledge you obtain, the luckier you become. I guarantee you that nobody landed Colston in 2006 by luck alone. No one said "I think I'll take this 7th round WR out of Hofstra in my rookie draft just for fun." No, the guys who got him already had some knowledge about him, about what was happening in camp and what coach Payton was saying, then they took the chance, and then got lucky. Bottom line is that value can come from anywhere, so know the landscape -- all of it -- or someone more prepared than you will be the one who gets lucky.
You can't control the luck, but you can gain the knowledge and put yourself in position to get lucky. There's where the work comes in. Here's what I do during every offseason:
1. I DO NOT take at face value a player's prior year(s) stats. I look at each team as a whole, one by one, taking into account how the prior season evolved, who was injured and when, how and why roles developed or changed through the year, etc., to gain as much knowledge as possible as to the REASONS behind prior year stats. Numbers are not information. They only become information if you understand their meaning and can interpret them correctly. You absolutely have to take the time and effort to know why the numbers were what they were or you will fall into the category of 95% of FFers who basically don't know why they draft who they draft except that this guy had better numbers than that guy, or they follow someone else's list, not knowing if the expert went to the effort I described. It's better than nothing, but will never make you better than average. And, I can tell you from experience that most experts, including most FBG staff who post rankings, don't go to that effort. Finally, it has to be remembered that a statistical sampling of 16 (or often fewer) games may not have as much predictive value as you'd like. One missed arm tackle can mean a 95 yard run and a TD and a much fatter YPC, whereas if that tackle had been made all of those stats would be wiped out. While some love to analyze the numbers to death, the painful truth is that statistics can and often do lie, and don't mean as much as we'd like to believe when it comes to looking at the following year.
2. With last year understood as well as I can understand it, I tuck it away and proceed to this year. Yes, tuck it away to draw on and refer to as a frame of reference (along with the year before that and the year before that, as you begin to accumulate years of doing this), but I don't overemphasize last year when looking at this year. This is where being open minded is very important. Again, look at every team as a whole. What players have been added? Who left? How are roles changing as players age, some coming into their prime and some getting long in tooth? Who is returning from injury and how will the type of injury affect the early part of the season? Know the good OLs and the bad ones, pay attention to the injuries there too. As the OL goes, the team goes. Really really really learn as much as you can about projected roles for 2008. I don't just mean who is RB1 and RB2, WR1 and WR2, but how heavily someone will be relied on or how spread out the workload is expected to be. That's what matters. Don't trust that it'll be like last year. Know what's going on today. Spend 80% of your time on roles and 20% of your time on guessing statistics and you'll be much better off than doing the opposite. And, again, be open minded about those roles. Know the expected roles but also know they can change fast. It's often the 3rd RB (or worse) on a depth chart that emerges when there is an injury. Know who that player is. Neither Grant GB or Graham TB would have been projected as starter when the starter went down, but you had to know who they were and be open to the possibility that they could get a chance. Also think about the bigger picture, at a higher level. Who do you trust in front offices to build and maintain winning offenses? Polian or Millen? Parcells or Angelo? AJ Smith or today's Al Davis? What coaching changes (HC and OC) will affect team and offensive philosophies?
3. Keep up with the news every day once the preseason has begun and throughout the regular season, not just the stats from the prior week. For all I know Tyler Thigpen or Courtney Taylor or Ryan Torain could be stars this year. Not likely right now, but if you don't even know who these guys are and aren't keeping up once the season has begun to know if they are setting up to be in position to emerge due to injury or ineffectiveness, someone else will strengthen their team by grabbing them instead of you. Know who is dropping balls, who is turning heads with their limited opportunities, who gets special mention in coaches' Monday pressers. Things change fast. You must be able to adapt fast. Most NFL players are talented. It's a league of opportunity. And remember, ignore the naysayers who don't put in the work but are quick to say "Same old same old, blah blah blah, the new guy's a nobody." They come out of the woodwork when a sleeper is mentioned on this board, but you never hear a peep from them when the sleeper pans out. Learn who can be trusted at FBG (staff are not all equal in dedication, time spent, or talent), on the FBG board, and elsewhere, and also who should be completely ignored.
4. In dynasty leagues, I have begun putting extra emphasis on front offices when it comes to young players. Young in this sense means rookies through about the 3rd year. For example, when Thompson of GB drafts Jordy Nelson at 2/36, I project future success with a lot more confidence than when the Rams' Bill Devaney takes Donnie Avery at 2/33. If AJ Smith trades up specifically to get RB Jacob Hester at 3/69, I'm not in the "Jacob's a nobody" camp. I'm in the "hmmm, that's interesting..." camp. But when Matt Millen waits until 3/64 to take Kevin Smith, letting 7 RBs go to other teams in the first two rounds when he badly needs a RB, I'm not saying "That wily Millen, what a value!" I've got red flags going up.
Well, that was pretty long winded but I could go on with a lot more. I'd better stop. It's already so long no one will read it.
but GREAT POSTING!!!
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In a similar vein, in one league last year I traded this year's first round pick (turned out to be 1.07) for Torry Holt. And a few months ago I traded next year's first round pick for Hines Ward.
from Couch Potato. Very well said.
Peter King said this on Sirius yesterday (haven't checked to see if its 100% accurate but it sounded true):"Of the 34 WRs drafted in the first round this decade, only 3 have caught 60 or more passes their first season".Most of us know that WR's usually do not yield good stats as rookies, but they still seem to get written off prematurely in FF circles.
