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What are your reasons? (1 Viewer)
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The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
I like him. I wish that the team would have kept the same offense and that Chris Redman were the QB all season (which may still happen) though.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You're saying we can't argue certain things so it's obvious your mind is made up.
I would invite you to look at WR who always post 80 catches and 1,200 yds...tell me which of those WR that Roddy White reminds you of. The guys who can do it consistently year in and year out are far and few to begin with. People really don't need reasons other than the fact that so few can be consistent. If White were to do it year in and year out he would be a HoF WR...is he one?
Bad QB, bad OL protecting the QB, bad OL opening holes in the run game, terrible defense, conservative coach, a 2-4 win candidate team...you can toss all that info out the window if you like but I summmed up Roddy WHite early in the summer. Just because he posted decent numbers when everything was working against him, doesn't mean that it's a good idea to go back and try to catch lightning in a bottle again.
Some other analogies...You can find food ina dumpster but that doesn't make it a good place to eat. Or just because you cracked pocket AA with J-10o doesn't mean you should think about doing it everytime. You play with fire and you're going to get burned.
I think that's enough for now.
I would invite you to look at WR who always post 80 catches and 1,200 yds...tell me which of those WR that Roddy White reminds you of. The guys who can do it consistently year in and year out are far and few to begin with. People really don't need reasons other than the fact that so few can be consistent. If White were to do it year in and year out he would be a HoF WR...is he one?
Bad QB, bad OL protecting the QB, bad OL opening holes in the run game, terrible defense, conservative coach, a 2-4 win candidate team...you can toss all that info out the window if you like but I summmed up Roddy WHite early in the summer. Just because he posted decent numbers when everything was working against him, doesn't mean that it's a good idea to go back and try to catch lightning in a bottle again.
Some other analogies...You can find food ina dumpster but that doesn't make it a good place to eat. Or just because you cracked pocket AA with J-10o doesn't mean you should think about doing it everytime. You play with fire and you're going to get burned.
I think that's enough for now.
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JPeso
Footballguy
The gameplan will go out of the window when the team is down two touchdowns in the 1st quarter.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Power running schemes with small/weak offensive lines and bad defenses don't seem like they'd be effective.Tanner9919
Footballguy
new offense, and will Matt Ryan start on opening day?
less time of possession, more turnovers,less chances for him to make big plays again..
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
He has a QB who has never taken an NFL snap. Say what you will about Chris Redman...His short passing game was terrible but he could throw an OK long ball. I don't see how it can ONLY get better. White had the best season a Falcons receiver has had since Andre Rison in the early 90's. it could get a LOT worse.
BigRed
Footballguy
This is about the last reply I expected. Somebody else gets it.Keep quiet.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
The teams QB/OL/RB situation couldnt be any worse than last year. The only thing i can see changing is maybe an increase in his TD's. Maybe a more conservative offense this year could hurt, but their defense will still force the Falcons to throw alot.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
Roddy is probably the "cheapest" sub-28 year-old dynasty WR you can buy coming off a 80-1200 campaign. The guy was a former 1st-rounder who was drafted as a "work in progress" and he struck oil in Year 3 which, ironically, was his first year playing w/o Vick at the helm.
People are over-analyzing his situation. It was bad last year. It'll be bad again this year. What's the #1 difference? Roddy has an additional year of experience under his belt.
People are over-analyzing his situation. It was bad last year. It'll be bad again this year. What's the #1 difference? Roddy has an additional year of experience under his belt.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Plus he wont have Harrington or Leftwhich throwing the ball to him for half the season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So just pencil him in for 80/1200 every year or would you boost him up a little with another year under his belt? Maybe 100/1,500 perhaps?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Every year?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
This is very flawed logic.
LBH
Footballguy
Burning Sensation said it pretty well. I think Roddy White is one of the biggest dynasty bargains out there right now.
How are you getting burned? He's going off in the 5th to 6th rounds, as WR24. You're looking at a guy that just put up 1200 yards as possibly your 3rd receiver. So, if he doesn't get 83 for 1200, again, then you haven't been "burnt." But let's get real here, if your main argument as there aren't that many receivers that do it, I don't see alot of validity in it. Is White the next 80, 1200, 8 guy? Maybe not. but, was Chad Johnson the first time he did it?
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
Sure...as long as you use a pencil.As a team, the Vikings had the lowest amount of receptions last year with 249. Let's assume the Falcons...who had 336 receptions last year...fall to this pitiful 249 level. How do you see the breakdown of 249 receptions in the Falcons offense? Crumpler's 42 receptions will be replaced by Martnez Milner and Dunn's 42 receptions will be replaced by some combination of Norwood (40 career receptions) and Turner (11 career receptions).White: ???Robinson: 50 (replaces Jenkins as the new #2)Jenkins: 35 (falls to the #3 role)Norwood: 40 (matches his career total of receptions in '08 as the team's 3rd-down RB)Turner: 20 (nearly doubles his career totals in receptions despite having 228 carries in 59 games)Milner: 20Horn: 10 (if still on the team)Excluding White and being very liberal with the other players, this still leaves 75 receptions on the table. Sure...you can nickle-and-dime and say a 4th-string RB or TE will gobble a dozen or so receptions, but I think the receptions will still find their way into White's hands.
White is going to catch plenty of balls. Besides the fact he caught 47 passes over the second half of the season he is playing the same role in Mularkeys offense that Hines Ward played. White has even stated he has been studying tape of Hines during that period. It so turns out it was the best 3 years of Hines career as he caught 94,112, and 95 passes in the 3 years under Mularkey. His best season without Mularkey he had 80 catches and that's with a superior QB.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
In the four games that Redman started, White had 30 rec, 424 yards, 3 TD's. I know its a small sample size, but that would work out to be 120 rec, 1696 yards and 12 TD's over a full season. Obviously i am not projecting him to put up those kind of numbers in 2008, but its a good sign with Redman going into the season as the starter.
The biggest concern for me is that the Falcons are changing from a spread offense under Petrino's direction to a more run-heavy system. I know this does not mean anything is for certain, but the change in offense scares me the most. Even White supporters have to recognize that the Falcons brought in a back that "should" be better than Dunn was last season. Will there be games the Falcons are out of it early and have to throw? One other thing to consider is that I expect Robinson to improve going into the second season.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
This is probably a good thing for White. Hopefully an improved running game and legitimate #2 WR will free up a little room for White.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
When Mularky was the OC in MIA in '06, the team ranked #4 in the NFL in pass attempts and #6 in completions with a stuggling Culpepper at the helm (#13 in passing yardage). Mularky was primarily a run-first HC with the Bills in '04 and '05 by default with his QB options being Losman and Holcomb. As the OC of the Steelers, they ranked #7 and #14, respectively, in passing yardage in '02 and '03 (attempts were #10 and #16).For reference, the Falcons were ranked #14 in pass attempts and #18 in passing yardage with Petrino's offense last year.
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I am going by the Smith comments so far and what type of offense he wanted. Comparing Mularky with the Steelers and now with the Falcons might be tough to reconcile. Also, it is important to consider where the passes went. For instance, last season, the Falcon WRs had 355 targets compared to 217 in 2006 and 233 in 2005. The Qb situation in Atlanta is much closer, imo, to Buff to Miami. Time will tell. The question was why would we discount White.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Fantastic stat...but we got to throw Vick into that scenario at least a little...where did the Falcons rank compared to the rest of the NFL with 355 WR targets? I'm betting that the 217 and 233 they posted in '05 and '06 has something to do with them ranking near the top of the NFL in rushing yds.I am going by the Smith comments so far and what type of offense he wanted. Comparing Mularky with the Steelers and now with the Falcons might be tough to reconcile. Also, it is important to consider where the passes went. For instance, last season, the Falcon WRs had 355 targets compared to 217 in 2006 and 233 in 2005. The Qb situation in Atlanta is much closer, imo, to Buff to Miami. Time will tell. The question was why would we discount White.When Mularky was the OC in MIA in '06, the team ranked #4 in the NFL in pass attempts and #6 in completions with a stuggling Culpepper at the helm (#13 in passing yardage). Mularky was primarily a run-first HC with the Bills in '04 and '05 by default with his QB options being Losman and Holcomb. As the OC of the Steelers, they ranked #7 and #14, respectively, in passing yardage in '02 and '03 (attempts were #10 and #16).
For reference, the Falcons were ranked #14 in pass attempts and #18 in passing yardage with Petrino's offense last year.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
That issue falls squarely on the shoulders of Vick.I am going by the Smith comments so far and what type of offense he wanted. Comparing Mularky with the Steelers and now with the Falcons might be tough to reconcile. Also, it is important to consider where the passes went. For instance, last season, the Falcon WRs had 355 targets compared to 217 in 2006 and 233 in 2005. The Qb situation in Atlanta is much closer, imo, to Buff to Miami. Time will tell. The question was why would we discount White.
For reference, the Falcons were ranked #14 in pass attempts and #18 in passing yardage with Petrino's offense last year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
At some point you just have to accept that these things happen in fantasy football without any major changes around the player. We see it time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time again, yet people still fall into this assumption that if a guy goes for 80/1200 and nothing changes around him that he's a lock to go for 80/1200 again. The guys that can do that consistently are few and far between, and that requires an extreme measure of talent. Some just may not see that in a guy like Roddy White.
I remember seeing this about Frank Gore last offseason when someone projected him to have a still quite good 1600/8 campaign, and people jumped all up in arms at the guy. But nothing's changed in SF, so what exactly is it you're pegging to knock his production down to 65% of what it was? 65% with no changes? That's not even possible.
As it turns out, even that was an overestimation.
I remember seeing this about Frank Gore last offseason when someone projected him to have a still quite good 1600/8 campaign, and people jumped all up in arms at the guy. But nothing's changed in SF, so what exactly is it you're pegging to knock his production down to 65% of what it was? 65% with no changes? That's not even possible.
As it turns out, even that was an overestimation.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I dont think anyone said he was a lock to repeat. However, a players most recent year of production is probably the best way to get an idea of what he might do the following year, particularly if the situation stays similar to the previous year. I think it also bodes well for White that he got better as the season went on. I feel safe saying he will finish closer to last years numbers than either of his previous two years. Its also possible he improves on last years numbers, especially TD's. Either way, the guy is a pretty good gamble considering his ADP.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I think he will regress because Harrington is not at QB. Harrington gets an unfair bad rap in my opinion.
jwb
Footballguy
Agreed. He was a first round pick. This isn't a scrub who came out of nowhere. I'd be more apt to look for reasons for him to fail if that were the case. But he was expected to do well. Yes, it took until his third year, and it's in ATL, the NFL version of Purgatory. That doesn't mean FF players shouldn't be excited about him.
It almost seems like people are reaching for reasons to downgrade him... Bad QB (like last year's was special?) Bad Team (ditto.) L. Robinson emerging (like having two good WR's hurts... let's ask Fitz, CJ, Harrison, and Coles how they feel about that)
I'm not ready to annoint him top 10, but he's definitely a good player on the rise.
jwb
Footballguy
The thing about this is, I don't see anyone who has a really compelling argument as to what they aren't seeing. The guy was a first round pick - thus, he obviously had/has raw talent. Somebody saw something in him. And he broke out in his third year. I don't see any real red flags in his game/body type. Do you? Really, I just don't see much wrong here at all. Essentially, the knock against him is "don't get too excited yet... Michael Clayton... ATL... hasn't done it consistently.... no QB... let's see him do it again...". It's almost like the negative people are saying he's a fluke. But he had/has a better pedigree than Colston (for example). And it's not like he waited until year 6 to break out (I would be more apt to call that a fluke.) And while ATL is no world beater, has AZ been dominating the NFL much? Doesn't stop anyone from buying on Fitz and Boldin.FreeBaGeL said:
Again, I'm not saying White is top 10. But he's a first round WR who broke out nicely in year three in miserable circumstances. I'd say his chances are pretty good that he's legit.
But, EVERYTHING changed. He won't have to catch passes from Harrington and Leftwich this year. He got a GOOD running back to help out on offense. I don't see how the situation can possibly be as bad as it was last year. He had 100 yard games from 3 separate quarterbacks last year. If not talent, why oh why did he do what he did last year?80 and 1200? No one's saying he's a lock for that.FreeBaGeL said:
But this 55 for 850 type stuff, I'm not too sure on either.
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
I think White is a solid option, but he may regress this year for several reasons.
1. The Falcons will still be a pretty bad team, but they won't be throwing the ball quite as much. They brought in a power RB, and have an excellent COP guy, so they will be trying to control the clock and keep games close. That will be the only way they have any chance this year to be competitive.
2. He had an unusually high amount of targets last year.
3. He won't be surprising anyone this season. Teams will look to take him out of the game because he is the best option in the passing game.
I like Roddy White, but I think it is hard to depend on a receiver that will be playing in an inconsistent offense. Throw in QB questions, offensive system questions, and making the running game a priority, and there is some risk.
1. The Falcons will still be a pretty bad team, but they won't be throwing the ball quite as much. They brought in a power RB, and have an excellent COP guy, so they will be trying to control the clock and keep games close. That will be the only way they have any chance this year to be competitive.
2. He had an unusually high amount of targets last year.
3. He won't be surprising anyone this season. Teams will look to take him out of the game because he is the best option in the passing game.
I like Roddy White, but I think it is hard to depend on a receiver that will be playing in an inconsistent offense. Throw in QB questions, offensive system questions, and making the running game a priority, and there is some risk.
Here's the quick answer- look across your draft board, you've undoubtedly dropped guys for having a lot less negatives than White and the Falcons have. The better question is why do you think Roddy White won't regress closer to his mean, given his circumstances? I think his ADP is too high given the risk. There are guys in that bucket with higher upside. Why do i want a guy that will have to max out his potential to meet his projections?
LBH
Footballguy
who is to say his potential will be maxed out if he meets his projections? Im also not sure what youre projections are. I think 80 1000 6 is reasonable, but I see upside for more. If you believe this(and i know many dont) then his ADP presents pretty good value
Well I'm working off the premise of the thread, that White wont regress. To reach 1200 and 6 (or in the ballpark) with this team's offense in my estimation is the best White owners can hope for. To set that as his projection doesnt seem wise to me. To hope for more seems wreckless... Roddy White isnt a top 10 receiver in this offense. There are guys in that tier that either have cracked the top 10 or have a higher likelihood of doing so this season. I mean there are guys like Marvin Harrison, Donald Driver, and Joey Galloway going around this pick that still have the talent to be top 5 if the stars were to align and i think they are a safer bet to hit 1200 and 6 ever on the down sides of their careers. And conversely if you really want a young explosive guy you think might sneak into the top 10 or top 5, Dwyane Bowe or Calvin Johnson are just flat out better, even if you have to reach up a bit more to get them.
If your expectations are lower, obviously his relative value changes as well as his relative upside.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
After three years in the NFL, what exactly is White's mean?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
What about Driver makes you think he is more talented than White? Driver has made his living off Favre, who is all but gone from the Pckers. I would take White over any of those three players.
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About a third what he did last year, statistically. But there is a big difference between 1200 and 6, and 1000 and 4, about 20 WRs and several draft rounds. And an even bigger difference between 1400 and 10. If you think White can score MORE fantasy points than last year, i'd like to hear how. And if not, than last years is his upside. Im not in the business of projecting players to max out, much less drafting them assuming they will. The vast majority of the time a player settles somewhere below his maximum potential, that shouldnt be surprising. If 1200 and 6 is about White's max potential on this team a this time, he will have to be flawless to hit his numbers. That isnt a great bet.
About 10 years of data.
Have you been watching the news lately? Regardless, the point remains that those guys have PROVEN they can put up those numbers regularly. Sure, there is a real risk that they have lost a few steps, but the risk that White was either a one hit wonder or is simply not physically as gifted as those others to overcome bad offensive play is much more real in my mind. Roddy White will have to set the Falcons world on fire to hit those numbers this season, Marvin Harrison simply has to come back to a shadow of his career average.Young players are routinely overrated due to the false sense of security that a LACK of data brings.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
What makes you think he maxed out last year? If nothing more, the QB stability should help him at least a little, and thats assuming he maxed out his talent level last year. 1200, 6 may be his max, but he has just as good as a shot for a top 10 finish as any WR from 12 to 25.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Well, you go ahead and draft proven guys like Driver, Harrison and Galloway over guys like Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes and Roddy White. Some people dont need years of data to know a player is good. I guess if everybody thought the same way, it would take the fun out of fantasy football.
switz
Footballguy
More run oriented, less pass attempts.White isn't really all that good of a receiver, and some of the other receivers will probably emerge to take away a number of his reps.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Two of Driver's best years were '05 and '06, when Favre was about as effective as Anthony Wright.
...
Read the rest of my post next time, or work on comprehension. I addessed both your points- White is maxed out because of his offense and his already high number of targets, and I already said if you liked a young guy to take Calvin Johnson or Dwayne Bowe because they are more prototypical WRs with better opportunities this season. My point remains- if White isnt maxed out just what could his upside numbers going to look like? And what percent of the Falcons offense will that mean he accounts for? And what 'stability at QB'? For White to have this alleded upside not only does he have to have an amazing year, you have to assume Matt Ryan or Chris Redman is going to have quite a better year than most are projecting as well. So now you have TWO unproved commodities that will need to play lights out.
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