What do Gates and Colston have in common? (1 Viewer)

[PatsWillWin]

One of the biggest busts of the season that really isn't getting dumped on as much as it should is Antonio Gates. Ben Watson venting threads outnumber Antonio Gates venting reads like 3:1.

My question is pretty simple. Drew Brees is in San Diego, and out of NOWHERE comes a big, physical, and fast weapon who puts up huge numbers, is lauded as one of the phenoms at his position, and has record setting seasons. Drew Brees then leaves San Diego, and said big, physical, and fast phenom quickly retreats into obscurity despite a relatively healthy offense still being present without Brees.

Drew Brees goes to the New Orleans Saints, and out of NOWHERE comes a big, physical, and fast weapon who puts up huge numbers, and is lauded as one of the phenoms at his position, and is having a record setting season.

Did Drew Brees just really lucky two times in a row? And if so, is Gates' drop-off just a coincidence?

Or have we been giving credit to the wrong player?

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Ozymandias]

The other thing they have in common is that they both play tight end...

Oh, wait...

That's only in the magical world of Yahoo...

 

[j3r3m3y]

One of the biggest busts of the season that really isn't getting dumped on as much as it should is Antonio Gates. Ben Watson venting threads outnumber Antonio Gates venting reads like 3:1. My question is pretty simple. Drew Brees is in San Diego, and out of NOWHERE comes a big, physical, and fast weapon who puts up huge numbers, is lauded as one of the phenoms at his position, and has record setting seasons. Drew Brees then leaves San Diego, and said big, physical, and fast phenom quickly retreats into obscurity despite a relatively healthy offense still being present without Brees.Drew Brees goes to the New Orleans Saints, and out of NOWHERE comes a big, physical, and fast weapon who puts up huge numbers, and is lauded as one of the phenoms at his position, and is having a record setting season. Did Drew Brees just really lucky two times in a row? And if so, is Gates' drop-off just a coincidence?Or have we been giving credit to the wrong player? I'll hang up and listen.

Gates is ranked number 5 TE in my league, just over 1 ppg from being ranked #1. People have been using the term "bust" WAY too loosly in the shark pool this year.I don't know why I even bother to get into these threads when they are full of such BS, Gates "retreats into obscurity?"

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Both of them are ridiculously talented, but I don't think either would be the FF player they are without Brees. He loves to lock onto those large receivers.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Gates is ranked number 5 TE in my league, just over 1 ppg from being ranked #1. People have been using the term "bust" WAY too loosly in the shark pool this year.I don't know why I even bother to get into these threads when they are full of such BS, Gates "retreats into obscurity?"

Gates is currently ranked 35th in the NFL in receiving. If you drafted him to get guys who are not as productive as Michael Furrey, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Kennison, and Drew Bennett, well, then keep laughing. He wasn't drafted to be the #5 TE - he was drafted to be far and away the #1 TE.He's on pace for 69 catches for 845 yards and 7 TDs - a substantial drop from his 2005 89 catches, 1100 yards, and 10 TDs. His ADP was in the 3rd round or so in TE required leagues. I don't know what your scoring system is like, but he's a top 5 TE when he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR.Even still, I wasn't takling about obscurity in fantasy terms. I'm talking about the NFL. Past two season all you heard about was how much of an explosive weapon Antonio Gates was - no this year it's all about Colston.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Gates is ranked number 5 TE in my league, just over 1 ppg from being ranked #1. People have been using the term "bust" WAY too loosly in the shark pool this year.I don't know why I even bother to get into these threads when they are full of such BS, Gates "retreats into obscurity?"

Gates is currently ranked 35th in the NFL in receiving. If you drafted him to get guys who are not as productive as Michael Furrey, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Kennison, and Drew Bennett, well, then keep laughing. He wasn't drafted to be the #5 TE - he was drafted to be far and away the #1 TE.

If you drafted him to be a top WR, you were mistaken. He is a top 5 TE, which is what I was looking for when I traded for him.

He's on pace for 69 catches for 845 yards and 7 TDs - a substantial drop from his 2005 89 catches, 1100 yards, and 10 TDs. His ADP was in the 3rd round or so in TE required leagues. I don't know what your scoring system is like, but he's a top 5 TE when he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR.

Again, if you drafted him to be a top 7-8 WR you made a mistake.

Even still, I wasn't takling about obscurity in fantasy terms. I'm talking about the NFL. Past two season all you heard about was how much of an explosive weapon Antonio Gates was - no this year it's all about Colston.

I do agree that Brees helped both out, he seems to like to key in on the huge target both of them present, I just don't agree that Gates is a "bust". Of course I never draft the first TE off the board, history shows that to be a mistake. I gladly traded Rex Grossman, who I picked up off the WW for him.

 

[Qmaster]

Ummmmmm..........they are BOTH eligible as TE's in Yahoo Leagues??

 

[Bob_Magaw]

gates is still a great player, but clearly he is off his pace of last year...

in 05 he finished with 170 pts (FBG) in just 15 games... that was like 50% higher than next closest TE... & comparable to top 10 WR

in 06 he is pacing for about 125 pts... comparable to #25 WR

as far as history showing drafting a TE first is a mistake, it is hard to evaluate that statement without context... it is relative to where they go... i'm not sure gates was a catastropic mistake where he went in a lot of drafts in 05, because of his huge production (likely WRs that finished lower than him overall were drafted higher in many drafts)...

gates might have been expected to tumble a little with first time starter (they were more conservative to start season but are opening up more)

brees has been a ridiculous improvement over brooks, and has proven he wasn't a product of SD system & playing with LT & gates, but is playing at level of MVP candidate in his own right... not sure other QBs like manning, brady, palmer, mcnabb, bulger, etc couldn't also make colston look good

 

[PatsWillWin]

Gates is ranked number 5 TE in my league, just over 1 ppg from being ranked #1. People have been using the term "bust" WAY too loosly in the shark pool this year.

I don't know why I even bother to get into these threads when they are full of such BS, Gates "retreats into obscurity?"

Gates is currently ranked 35th in the NFL in receiving. If you drafted him to get guys who are not as productive as Michael Furrey, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Kennison, and Drew Bennett, well, then keep laughing. He wasn't drafted to be the #5 TE - he was drafted to be far and away the #1 TE.

If you drafted him to be a top WR, you were mistaken. He is a top 5 TE, which is what I was looking for when I traded for him.

He's on pace for 69 catches for 845 yards and 7 TDs - a substantial drop from his 2005 89 catches, 1100 yards, and 10 TDs. His ADP was in the 3rd round or so in TE required leagues. I don't know what your scoring system is like, but he's a top 5 TE when he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR.

Again, if you drafted him to be a top 7-8 WR you made a mistake.

http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.phpMock draft site from the pre-season. Gates' ADP was 3.05.

http://www.antsports.com/adp.aspx

Ant Sports ADP - Gates is 26th overall.

So we're all glad you thought Gates would just be a top 5 TE, but, like i said, he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR and the best TE by FAR - not a "top 5" TE.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Gates is ranked number 5 TE in my league, just over 1 ppg from being ranked #1. People have been using the term "bust" WAY too loosly in the shark pool this year.

I don't know why I even bother to get into these threads when they are full of such BS, Gates "retreats into obscurity?"

Gates is currently ranked 35th in the NFL in receiving. If you drafted him to get guys who are not as productive as Michael Furrey, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Kennison, and Drew Bennett, well, then keep laughing. He wasn't drafted to be the #5 TE - he was drafted to be far and away the #1 TE.

If you drafted him to be a top WR, you were mistaken. He is a top 5 TE, which is what I was looking for when I traded for him.

He's on pace for 69 catches for 845 yards and 7 TDs - a substantial drop from his 2005 89 catches, 1100 yards, and 10 TDs. His ADP was in the 3rd round or so in TE required leagues. I don't know what your scoring system is like, but he's a top 5 TE when he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR.

Again, if you drafted him to be a top 7-8 WR you made a mistake.

http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.phpMock draft site from the pre-season. Gates' ADP was 3.05.

http://www.antsports.com/adp.aspx

Ant Sports ADP - Gates is 26th overall.

So we're all glad you thought Gates would just be a top 5 TE, but, like i said, he was drafted to be a top 7-8 WR and the best TE by FAR - not a "top 5" TE.

Exactly why I never take the top TE off the board. Compare where the first TE was taken in that last 10 years drafts and see how many of them underperform their ADP. The fact that lots of people made the same mistake does not make it any less of a mistake.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Exactly why I never take the top TE off the board. Compare where the first TE was taken in that last 10 years drafts and see how many of them underperform their ADP. The fact that lots of people made the same mistake does not make it any less of a mistake.

Well I'm happy for you, but that's not what this thread is about.

 

[Despyzer]

As far as Gates goes, to predict that he is a by-product of Brees is to misinterpret the facts.

Gates is continuing to develop as a TE, his blocking has improved greatly this year, and as much as that might hurt your fantasy team, it is a large part of playing the position.

Not to take anything away from Brees, but he has more of a tendency to lock onto a receiver more than Rivers does. The guy that connects Brees is going to get more looks and more targets, regardless of ability.

The Chargers have more options than they have in previous years. They still have Tomlinson, McCardell, and Parker, but they have also added Manu at TE and have seen Malcolm Floyd emerge and Vincent Jackson develop more at WR.

None of this points to Gates being less of player this year than when he was teaming up with Brees.

 

[bjabrad]

As far as Gates goes, to predict that he is a by-product of Brees is to misinterpret the facts. Gates is continuing to develop as a TE, his blocking has improved greatly this year, and as much as that might hurt your fantasy team, it is a large part of playing the position.Not to take anything away from Brees, but he has more of a tendency to lock onto a receiver more than Rivers does. The guy that connects Brees is going to get more looks and more targets, regardless of ability.The Chargers have more options than they have in previous years. They still have Tomlinson, McCardell, and Parker, but they have also added Manu at TE and have seen Malcolm Floyd emerge and Vincent Jackson develop more at WR.None of this points to Gates being less of player this year than when he was teaming up with Brees.

just to add,,,SD also seems to be a pretty good team still and with a record of 7-2 I think however they are choosing to use Gates is working.

 

[Knight who says Ni]

Is San Diego running the same kind of offense this year as last? Brandon Manumaleuna has more receiving TD's this year than his last two years combined with the Rams - including two last week! I don't recall any TE's not named Antonio Gates getting TD receptions from Brees last year (maybe one from Justin Peele?). Perhaps last week's performance by Rivers will instill some confidence in Marty and he'll run a more open offense ... then again, if you have LT running for 10 TD's a game, why change it?

Ni?

KwsN

 

[Sidewinder]

...

Not to take anything away from Brees, but he has more of a tendency to lock onto a receiver more than Rivers does. The guy that connects Brees is going to get more looks and more targets, regardless of ability.

...

Statistically, the numbers don't really support that premise, at least not for this season.So far for 2006:

Rivers has 274 pass attempts

Gates has been targeted 68 times (24.8%)

9 different players have caught passes for SD

Brees has 331 pass attempts

Colston has been targeted 88 times (26.6%)

14 different players have caught passes for NO

And I'd argue that Colston's numbers have been skewed higher since Horn has been hurt, as Colston has had his 3 highest targeted games the past 3 weeks.

 

[Native]

Or have we been giving credit to the wrong player?

Youre spot on, man.

 

[CamelGod]

Or have we been giving credit to the wrong player?

Youre spot on, man.

On that front, Delhomme should get all the credit for what Steve Smith was able to accomplish too. Just look what Muhsin Muhammad was able to do with Delhomme passing to him.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Maybe the huge receivers are the only ones Brees can see over the offensive line. He is only like 6'0". It makes sense to me.

 

[Ozymandias]

And...it is a well known fact that QB's struggle when they switch teams, and WR don't break out until the third year.

So, I am predicting 50 td's for Drew Brees in '08, and 20 td's for Colston. Or at least, that's what I said in the bar at 11 pm last night.

 

[CalBear]

Exactly why I never take the top TE off the board. Compare where the first TE was taken in that last 10 years drafts and see how many of them underperform their ADP. The fact that lots of people made the same mistake does not make it any less of a mistake.

Uh, actually the #1 TE has been by far the surest bet to overperform ADP for the past 10 years. From 2000-2004, Gonzalez never had less than 55 VBD points, and averaged 82 with a max of 114. Those are far better numbers than you'll get for the other players drafted near where Gonzo was. In 2005, Gates was the first TE drafted and he put up 93 VBD points. For reference, 82 VBD points is typically equivalent to the year-ending RB#10-12, QB#1-3, or WR#3-6, all of whom are drafted well before TE#1. And the advantage is even stronger than that, because you're comparing an actual player drafted as TE#1 with the year-end totals for the best players at the other positions.

 

[CalBear]

Following up on Gates' ADP. Gates was drafted in the third round this year. Here is the total list of people drafted in the third round, with their current VBD score:

W.Parker (75)

Wayne (46)

Roy Wlliams (36)

Ward (36)

Chester Taylor (28)

Gates (23)

Burress (18)

Julius Jones (15)

Chambers (6)

S.Moss (4)

D.Davis (0)

So, of everyone you could have drafted in the third round, only Willie Parker and Reggie Wayne are significantly outperforming Gates, even in Gates' down year. If you want to move up a few picks into the second round, you get Boldin, Randy Moss, Reggie Bush, and Kevin Jones, three of whom Gates is outperforming.

Gates owners who took him in the third round are doing just fine for themselves.

 

[H.K.]

One of the biggest busts of the season that really isn't getting dumped on as much as it should is Antonio Gates.

Until I read this thread, I really hadn't paid much attention to Gates' numbers this season, but now that you mention it, he is underperforming. Nice find!

 

[kensat30]

Well just look at the pace LT is on. The guy is about the reset the record book for most TDs in a season. Of course Gates is going to suffer from this.

Last two years, Gates was getting the scores inside the redzone, while LT was relegated to the goalline mostly. Now LT is running them in from 8-9+ yards out. Ridiculous scoring rate.

 

[Barry]

has ESPN started to use "ridiculous" instead of "sick". It keeps popping up all over these threads.

 

[PatsWillWin]

has ESPN started to use "ridiculous" instead of "sick". It keeps popping up all over these threads.

i hate how so many people spell it "rediculous".