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What do you think of Javon Walker in 2006? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter singman
- Start date
ExaltedOne
Footballguy
Only if Favre comes back. If not... :XThis guy was a borderline top 5 WR until the injury. Any body think he comes back strong?
Nobody will put up good numbers with Aaron Rodgers at QB.
ExaltedOne
Footballguy
Assuming Favre is back (which is a bad assumption) Walker will probably struggle for a few games before he gets back in his groove. He's always been a good red zone target though. I'd expect something close to his 2003 numbers with about 800 yards and 8 TDs. Without Favre, it'll be ugly.
The Pack is on a downswing and will get much worse before they get better.
5Rings
Lurker
I'm going to take a different approach on this.
Obviously GB stinks, will be behind/losing most of their games, and their RB situation is questionable at best.
Most of the time, these factors lead to more passing.
Even if a green Rodgers is behind center, I would expect a talented player like Walker to actually have this targets (not #s, for Rodgers will probably stink) go up next year and perhaps return to his pre-injury top 5 ranking in 2007-8?
In a redraft, I'd put him about WR20 this year w/Favre with considerable upside.
In a dynasty, I'd move him up to about WR12 knowing his best numbers are yet to come.
Obviously GB stinks, will be behind/losing most of their games, and their RB situation is questionable at best.
Most of the time, these factors lead to more passing.
Even if a green Rodgers is behind center, I would expect a talented player like Walker to actually have this targets (not #s, for Rodgers will probably stink) go up next year and perhaps return to his pre-injury top 5 ranking in 2007-8?
In a redraft, I'd put him about WR20 this year w/Favre with considerable upside.
In a dynasty, I'd move him up to about WR12 knowing his best numbers are yet to come.
mcjc4
Footballguy
I agree that bad teams sometimes have garbage time yads at the end of games, but rarely do their players ever warrant a starting position on your FF squad. Baltimore,Houston,Jets,Oakland all played from behind most the season, but did any of their WR's play to a #2 WR? Not really, including Moss in the second half. WR#3,sure but if a guy is projected top 20 your not looking for #3 production. Garbage time points are never something you want to rely on week to week. Andre Johnson made that point for us this year.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
While Rogers will be a huge downgrade, he did have the luxery of backing up Favre for year and learning from the bench. So while he's expected to struggle, 1st round QBs who sit for a year or more usually start off better than rookies. Some even surprise and do very well.
I think Walker is one of the top young WRs out there. He had the workout effort of players like TO, Jerry Rice, and David Boston. He got hurt more like Boston did though. His injury was probably partially due to his workout routine. Its a positive thing to have that effort. Heart is one thing though and the body is another. I'd say his risk is still much less than Boston's but greater than guys like TO, Randy Moss, or Steve Smith. I'd say Roy Williams very comparable to Walker. They are two of the youngest, most physical, fastest, tall, and most competative WRs in the NFL. Either I think could be number one overall any given year in which they stay healthy. Both have other questions about their QB and offense.
Walker, like any great WR who misses a season, will be a huge value fantasy pick next year for his upside. Often the pick works wonders like Steve Smith last year or TO after he came back from injury several years ago. Other times we see a David Boston or Germane Crowell who pretty much disappear. Still he's great value as I consider receivers with the highest upside far more valuable on draft day than consistantly mediocre ones. You can pluck mediocre receivers from waivers all season long. Javon Walker is the perfect type of reciever for the stud RB drafter who takes 3 or 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds or the stud TE drafter who steals Gates or Gonzalez next year.
I think Walker is one of the top young WRs out there. He had the workout effort of players like TO, Jerry Rice, and David Boston. He got hurt more like Boston did though. His injury was probably partially due to his workout routine. Its a positive thing to have that effort. Heart is one thing though and the body is another. I'd say his risk is still much less than Boston's but greater than guys like TO, Randy Moss, or Steve Smith. I'd say Roy Williams very comparable to Walker. They are two of the youngest, most physical, fastest, tall, and most competative WRs in the NFL. Either I think could be number one overall any given year in which they stay healthy. Both have other questions about their QB and offense.
Walker, like any great WR who misses a season, will be a huge value fantasy pick next year for his upside. Often the pick works wonders like Steve Smith last year or TO after he came back from injury several years ago. Other times we see a David Boston or Germane Crowell who pretty much disappear. Still he's great value as I consider receivers with the highest upside far more valuable on draft day than consistantly mediocre ones. You can pluck mediocre receivers from waivers all season long. Javon Walker is the perfect type of reciever for the stud RB drafter who takes 3 or 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds or the stud TE drafter who steals Gates or Gonzalez next year.
5Rings
Lurker
I certainly agree with your point about relying on garbage time, but it is a factor that should not be ignored.I don't think you can exclude Moss from this. He was still top 15 on a team that absolutely rolled over and was not even competitive the last half of the year.
Andre Johnson was hurt but still ended up at WR50 on a ppg basis. He looks to be the floor for Walker.
Baltimore had Boller/Wright/crap at QB, as did the Jets. I think these two teams provide a better comparison for the post-Favre Packers.
Mason still finished at #25, which is not a far reach from WR20 (<1 pt/game).
Coles finished at #31, so perhaps what we are seeing is that a guy like Walker's downside is WR3-4, and upside is WR2 for next year w/Rodgers and significantly higher with FAvre.
FWIW, I weighed in his risk factor, downside, and upside when putting him at #20
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brednbuddah
Footballguy
nicely done.SoloMatisse
Footballguy
Whats interesting about Walker's upcoming season is that it will be an ACL recovery year AND a contract year, if Im not mistaken. I doubt very seriously he'll return to GB after the coming year considering all he's been thru with the contract and injuries, so he WILL have a high level of motivation to earn that one big contract that could be out there for him. In a dynasty, Id love to have him. Next season, Id love to have him as a WR3 with the potential to put up some strong #s down the stretch if he stays healthy. We all know it typically takes a guy a full year to recover from an ACL, so to view him as anything outside of a strong #3 would be very risky imo.
Wolfpacker
Footballguy
You guys had me wondering about the performance of one of my keeper-league WRs this past season. I realize this may be an exception (or maybe not), but it seemed like every week, I would check my fantasy players stats around half-time and Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy points were'nt very good. Then, at the end of the game I was happily surprised. It drove me crazy and I worried that he was only getting garbage points and that seemed unreliable to me as well (as mcjc4 stated). I just did a quick check and discovered that Fitzgerald scored 8 of his 10 touchdowns in the second half of the game, with 5 of those coming in the 4th quarter. That kinda worries me. What if...don't laugh now...Arizona improves and is leading in the 4th quarter? Would Fitzgerald have all of those TDs?
Of course, there's probably more factors involved which would take more research. And, it would take a king's ransom to pry Fitzgerald away from me. But, I thought this would be relevent to your conversation and it's something to consider when discussing the Javon Walker situation.
robb
Footballguy
I can keep 3 players for next year, with one of them being Westbrook.
Would you keep Walker over Chambers or Roy Williams? (I am keeping Fitzgerald as my 2nd keeper) They all are 3-4th round picks, but I can't decide which one is a better keeper going forward in 2006.
Thanks for your input.
Would you keep Walker over Chambers or Roy Williams? (I am keeping Fitzgerald as my 2nd keeper) They all are 3-4th round picks, but I can't decide which one is a better keeper going forward in 2006.
Thanks for your input.
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
Take Walker out of that equation, for next season anyway. Id favor Williams right now for upside, with Martz calling plays and his history of producing strong WR #s. Chambers is solid, but inconsisent. Its close, but for the time, pending movement at QB and other changes, Id be leaning towards Roy entering his 3rd year.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Funny, I have a keep three where it looks as though I am going to have to keep Walker (over Mason, Bruce, T. Green or Cooley). You have a much better situation and I would probably go Chambers if he gets a proper QB and R. Williams if he does not. Walker is too much of a gamble when you have a choices like you have.
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
Some of it could be garbage time boosts, but some of those TD's came in their few victories and in games they were in. Being a Warner owner in the second half of last year I did notice a lot of games where he got off to bad starts to many games and would have bad stats at halftime. I saw him miss open receivers and miss TD opportunities that were more on him than on the receivers or the defense. It just seemed like he'd start out shaky and then settle down and get into a little bit of a rythmn as the game went on, behind or not. It probably comes down to a number of factors.
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
Mariucci used to have the same history before going to Detroit but he had Owens before just as Martz had Holt and Bruce. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
A history with TO is not really a history. TO makes his own plays...you or I could have coached that beast to 14 TDs...seriously. You cant compare what Martz has done to what Mooch has done. With all due respect to Holt and the other receivers...none of those guys has the dominating skills of TO. jmho.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
Walker could be a Top 15 WR (with Favre) or not in the Top 30 (Rodgers).
