The top tier of WR in redraft (1 Viewer)

[Pip's Invitation]

The commish of my main redraft league plays in a bajillion leagues and was invited onto a SiriusXM fantasy football program to discuss what you have to consider when you play in that many leagues.

One of his points was that it's important to diversify your first-round picks so you are not too exposed if one of them gets a serious injury early on.

He felt the top 5 WR -- Lamb, Hill, St. Brown, Jefferson and Chase -- were all pretty much interchangeable from a fantasy value perspective and thus he wanted to be invested in each of them about equally.

Do you all agree with the premise that these 5 are close in fantasy value and you should be equally confident with any of them as your first-round pick? Or do you value some of this group more highly than others?

 

[travdogg]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

 

[Scoresman]

I see it as Lamb/Hill as Tier 1a.

Jefferson/Amon-Ra Tier 1b.

Chase Tier 1c.

Cincinatti has to prove me they won't have yet another slow start to the season. I don't want 2-3 duds from my first round pick to start out the year.

 

[Gally]

I don't think their "value" is all that much different. I mean you have to take them in the first round if you want them. They are valued as first round picks. Now the order you may believe in them may be different but I don't think that changes their "value" in this context.

I can see his point that diversifying when you are in that many leagues makes some sense in that a bust doesn't kill all your teams. This really only applies if you have those 5 WR's in the same tier. If you have multiple tiers out of those 5 like @travdogg stated then you might as well take your higher tier guy every time.

Now if you are only in a hand full of leagues then diversification really isn't as big of a deal. You are just trying to pick your best team and many times that will mean you get the same guy if you are drafting from the same draft slot for those teams.

 

[Chaka]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

I saw you say something similar about Chase earlier and I am curious why you believe that?

2022 Chase played 12 games and his pace was 100+ catches, 1400+ yards and 13 TDs. Last season in 10 games with Burrow he was on an identical pace (10 TDs).

Is injury your concern? Because when Chase/Burrow are on the field they dominate.

 

[Chaka]

Jefferson is the one I am most concerned with ATM because his QB situation is aassive downgrade from 2023.

And the longer CeeDee isn't in camp the more concerned I become with him. I can't imagine he's hold out into the season but, I prefer to see guys get some practice reps to knock the rust off. If he comes in days before the season starts I worry about a slow start.

 

[Scoresman]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

I saw you say something similar about Chase earlier and I am curious why you believe that?

2022 Chase played 12 games and his pace was 100+ catches, 1400+ yards and 13 TDs. Last season in 10 games with Burrow he was on an identical pace (10 TDs).

Is injury your concern? Because when Chase/Burrow are on the field they dominate.

For me, it's the slow start the Bengals have had every year under Zac Taylor. That's 2-3 games were someone like Chase is probably giving you subpar numbers. Last year, he started with 3.1 and 4.1 points in weeks 1 and 2. I dont want my first round pick to start my team off in that kind of hole.

The slow start thing doesn't seem fluky either. Last year, Burrows injury made it worse, but it seems like Zac Taylor purposely goes easy on the starters in camp and preseason games.

 

[jm192]

I try to let where I'm picking handle the diversification. If I'm picking anywhere and CMC is there, I'm taking him regardless of how many shares I have. Similar to what @travdogg said, If I pick 2, I'll probably have a ton of Lamb or Hill. I have Hill and Lamb in the 1A tier and would probably split between those 2 if I picked at 2 every time.

I think Chase/Jefferson/ARSB are all pretty close for me. I appreciate the QB concerns. You're right for putting Jefferson at WR5 or 6. But holy crap to get Justin Jefferson 6th or 7th in your draft?! He had crap QB's for several games last year and was still awesome. The Vikings will play from behind and Jefferson will benefit.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I may be in the minority here, but I think you have to include AJ Brown in this tier. Yes, the 2nd half of 2023 was ugly, but he's a clear #1 on a pretty stack offense.

 

[Chaka]

I may be in the minority here, but I think you have to include AJ Brown in this tier. Yes, the 2nd half of 2023 was ugly, but he's a clear #1 on a pretty stack offense.

Probably right but last year was brutal. I had the AJ/Hurts stack and thought I was cruising to a championship. Somehow made it to the finals in spite of them and lost.

But, objectively we have to recognize how well Hurts & Brown play together overall. I also see fewer brotherly shoves after losing Kelce. So,maybe a few more opportunities for AJ near the GL.

 

[Gatorade]

I would take Lamb (homer pick) and Hill over the other three. But truthfully, if I don't have the first pick (CMC), I want pick #6 and would take whichever one is left over. AJ Brown would be close behind or even higher for Philly fans.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I would take Lamb (homer pick) and Hill over the other three. But truthfully, if I don't have the first pick (CMC), I want pick #6 and would take whichever one is left over. AJ Brown would be close behind or even higher for Philly fans.

After I listened to the program, I texted the commish to say “so I guess you want pick #6 this year?”

(On the show he did say he takes McCaffrey when he has the #1 pick).

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

I think the diversify thing tends to come from people playing in hundreds and thousands of best ball leagues.

 

[travdogg]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

I saw you say something similar about Chase earlier and I am curious why you believe that?

2022 Chase played 12 games and his pace was 100+ catches, 1400+ yards and 13 TDs. Last season in 10 games with Burrow he was on an identical pace (10 TDs).

Is injury your concern? Because when Chase/Burrow are on the field they dominate.

A little injury concern between Burrow/Chase (more Burrow) but also, I just think he's not as good a player as St. Brown or AJ Brown, both in fantasy and NFL.

I also think Zac Taylor isn't very creative. Guys like St. Brown and Lamb, and especially Hill get moved around and get favorable matchups all the time. Taylor just lines guys up and hopes they win, like a kid playing Madden. Its extremely maddening watching the Bengals offense get held back by a mediocre play caller. Its also why I think Mixon upgraded going to Houston.

I don't hate Chase by any means, I just think he's gonna need to thread a smaller needle to pay off at ADP. I think he's more of a 1/2 turn player, who gets pushed up due to youth and the idea that he should be doing more.

 

[Chaka]

I'm not a believer in diversifying. I'm also not a believer in assuming anyone will get injured. So I think if I say, had the #2 pick in 10 different leagues, that's probably 10 CeeDee Lamb shares for me, or maybe Tyreek in a non-PPR league.

I personally think Chase and especially JJ are quite a bit behind Lamb and Hill, and St. Brown has a safer floor. Could argue AJ Brown above them as well.

I saw you say something similar about Chase earlier and I am curious why you believe that?

2022 Chase played 12 games and his pace was 100+ catches, 1400+ yards and 13 TDs. Last season in 10 games with Burrow he was on an identical pace (10 TDs).

Is injury your concern? Because when Chase/Burrow are on the field they dominate.

A little injury concern between Burrow/Chase (more Burrow) but also, I just think he's not as good a player as St. Brown or AJ Brown, both in fantasy and NFL.

I also think Zac Taylor isn't very creative. Guys like St. Brown and Lamb, and especially Hill get moved around and get favorable matchups all the time. Taylor just lines guys up and hopes they win, like a kid playing Madden. Its extremely maddening watching the Bengals offense get held back by a mediocre play caller. Its also why I think Mixon upgraded going to Houston.

I don't hate Chase by any means, I just think he's gonna need to thread a smaller needle to pay off at ADP. I think he's more of a 1/2 turn player, who gets pushed up due to youth and the idea that he should be doing more.

Thanks for the response. I can't make too much comment on Taylor as a play caller/schemer but all I can point out is the results when Burrow & Chase are on the field are simply unquestionable. 1,400 & 10+ puts him in the top tier. I won't argue against Tyreek, CeeDee, ARSB or JJ but Chase seems to be unquestionably in the conversation with all of them and I wouldn't blink if anyone told me they had him ranked as the #1WR

 

[packdog]

i very much agree with variance as someone who plays in a ton of leagues myself. it will happen naturally with luck of the draw on snake draft orders to an extent. auction maybe i don't spend as much on player x cause i already have decent exposure and pay a little less for player y with little or no exposure. already in some drafts i mixed up jefferson and chase instead of getting two of either one. i will tend to stack same players in the mid and later rounds. if some of those hit they can help when injuries or busts hit and really fill a lineup to dominance. and waiver gems can really propel you. i understand if you just play a few to stack the same guys and sink or swim. but with decent money invested that's a good way to lose a good bit of cash (or make a good bit with good fortune)