What happend to Moreno? (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

I am one of many who "bought high" using the 1.01 to take Moreno. Granted, at the time he was the clear pick. Obviously, most of us are scratching our heads. I know he is young and there is a good chance he at least lives up to the rookie draft pick. But what happened to the elite, talented, game changing back he was in college? I find it hard to believe that he didn't have one run over 20 yards, given the volume. Troy Hambrick did that! I am not going to put it all on him. Team and situation have a lot to do with it. But watching him play, he wasn't close to the best RB on his own team. Buckhalter had much more burst than Knowshon showed last season. He should get more volume and Denver has to give him every chance to produce, given what they gave up to get him. But I didn't see anything special when I watched him this year.

What happened?

How worried should I be?

Time to sell low?

 

[Garts]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.

Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

 

[Concept Coop]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

 

[Glaven]

One main issue that i think compounded to his lack of big gains is that he had fumbling issues early in the season. After that, it looked like he ran with 2 hands on the ball all the time unless he was able to get through the first wave of defenders. Running with 2 hands on the ball slows you down, hinders your ability to stiff arm, hinders your ability to make cuts, and basically it hinders all of your abilities in exchange for increased protection of the football. If he goes back to how he ran before last season, that is to put 2 hands on the ball only when it is absolutely necessary, it may result in Moreno looking faster and more dynamic a runner.

Even if he runs properly and he's not paranoid about fumbling, i'm not so sure he's as talented as people thought he was at the beginning of last season. He does everything well, but nothing all that great. Those type of players don't turn into fantasy studs for anything more than a season or 2 when the situation is ideal. So although Moreno may have 1 or 2 studly seasons, i don't think he has the talent and ability to be a stud from year to year. Because of that, i would be selling Moreno if possible this offseason to someone who thinks Moreno is a stud for years to come. I'd be looking to trade Moreno and maybe add a little something for a top 3 pick in this years draft so i can get one of Mathews, Bryant, or Best for him.

 

[Garts]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I own Moreno and would take Greene in a heartbeat.Not sure if Donald Brown was much more impressive then Moreno, although he has a burst.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

Knowshon = Knowpower, Knowspeed, and Knowvision, which = Knowskills

 

[karmarooster]

what didn't translate? speed.... he's got too little power to be that slow

 

[gregjcross]

I am one of many who "bought high" using the 1.01 to take Moreno. Granted, at the time he was the clear pick. Obviously, most of us are scratching our heads. I know he is young and there is a good chance he at least lives up to the rookie draft pick. But what happened to the elite, talented, game changing back he was in college? I find it hard to believe that he didn't have one run over 20 yards, given the volume. Troy Hambrick did that! I am not going to put it all on him. Team and situation have a lot to do with it. But watching him play, he wasn't close to the best RB on his own team. Buckhalter had much more burst than Knowshon showed last season. He should get more volume and Denver has to give him every chance to produce, given what they gave up to get him. But I didn't see anything special when I watched him this year. What happened?How worried should I be?Time to sell low?

I dont know if you were expecting the next Walter Payton, but dont most rookie RBs do about that well? Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, Jon Stewart, Ronnie Brown, Ray Rice, Ced Benson etc. in their own rookie years?

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Knowshon = Knowpower, Knowspeed, and Knowvision, which = Knowskills

 

[Sweet Love]

You could have been stuck with McFadden at 1.01. I saw him play a couple of times, and while not impressed, he did not look lost or anything. He does not play with a lot of speed and as someone pointed out, little speed + little power = trouble, but neither did Curtis Martin. Question is, if he lacks the former two skills, we he develop the vision necessary to compensate for the lack of the other two?

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

You could have been stuck with McFadden at 1.01. I saw him play a couple of times, and while not impressed, he did not look lost or anything. He does not play with a lot of speed and as someone pointed out, little speed + little power = trouble, but neither did Curtis Martin. Question is, if he lacks the former two skills, we he develop the vision necessary to compensate for the lack of the other two?

He has no vision either and that's not something you learn. Many times I saw him run up the back of his OL. You would have thought he was blind.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Emmitt Smith didn't crack 1,000 yds rushing as a rookie on your beloved Dallas Cowboys

 

[Bojang0301]

Beanie was far and away the best back last year. He has everything Moreno does not: vision, power and speed. Injuries and rumors he sat plays out held him back and scared teams.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am one of many who "bought high" using the 1.01 to take Moreno. Granted, at the time he was the clear pick. Obviously, most of us are scratching our heads. I know he is young and there is a good chance he at least lives up to the rookie draft pick. But what happened to the elite, talented, game changing back he was in college? I find it hard to believe that he didn't have one run over 20 yards, given the volume. Troy Hambrick did that! I am not going to put it all on him. Team and situation have a lot to do with it. But watching him play, he wasn't close to the best RB on his own team. Buckhalter had much more burst than Knowshon showed last season. He should get more volume and Denver has to give him every chance to produce, given what they gave up to get him. But I didn't see anything special when I watched him this year. What happened?How worried should I be?Time to sell low?

I dont know if you were expecting the next Walter Payton, but dont most rookie RBs do about that well? Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, Jon Stewart, Ronnie Brown, Ray Rice, Ced Benson etc. in their own rookie years?

Typically, RB is the most NFL ready position. McFadden has a lot to prove, or he could be considered a huge bust in a couple years. But even he showed flashes. Mendy was hurt. Stewart and Rice didn't get many carries. Rice had one huge game when he got the load. And I didn't watch much of Benson or Brown as rookies, so I won't comment. But most rookie backs display their talent, if only in small sample sizes, even as rookies. Moreno just looked average all around. Nothing he did made me think he will get much better.

 

[Concept Coop]

Emmitt Smith didn't crack 1,000 yds rushing as a rookie on your beloved Dallas Cowboys

It really has nothing to do with the yardage really. It is more based on the fact that he looked slow and stiff and let Buckhalter out do him. He showed no burst, wich most young backs do.

 

[CaptainHook]

Knowshon = Knowpower, Knowspeed, and Knowvision, which = Knowskills

Lmaogreat post great analysis

 

[CaptainHook]

Knowshown 2009: 247-947 3.8Emmitt 1990: 241-937 3.9SELL! SELL! SELL!

yes...so your saying all that we need to hapen now is denver becoming the greatest offensive line in the history of the league...

 

[EBF]

I think in hindsight he was a college overachiever with marginal physical tools for the pro game. He only runs about a 4.6 and his natural playing weight is probably about 210. I was surprised by how skinny and small he looked last year in a Broncos uniform. If you're that size, you probably need to be a bit quicker and faster. He just doesn't have the juice to make big plays and he's not going to run over many tacklers at the pro level. His only real asset is his foot quickness, which is probably not enough to make him more than serviceable.

 

[RockHard]

One main issue that i think compounded to his lack of big gains is that he had fumbling issues early in the season. After that, it looked like he ran with 2 hands on the ball all the time unless he was able to get through the first wave of defenders. Running with 2 hands on the ball slows you down, hinders your ability to stiff arm, hinders your ability to make cuts, and basically it hinders all of your abilities in exchange for increased protection of the football. If he goes back to how he ran before last season, that is to put 2 hands on the ball only when it is absolutely necessary, it may result in Moreno looking faster and more dynamic a runner.

Even if he runs properly and he's not paranoid about fumbling, i'm not so sure he's as talented as people thought he was at the beginning of last season. He does everything well, but nothing all that great. Those type of players don't turn into fantasy studs for anything more than a season or 2 when the situation is ideal. So although Moreno may have 1 or 2 studly seasons, i don't think he has the talent and ability to be a stud from year to year. Because of that, i would be selling Moreno if possible this offseason to someone who thinks Moreno is a stud for years to come. I'd be looking to trade Moreno and maybe add a little something for a top 3 pick in this years draft so i can get one of Mathews, Bryant, or Best for him.

Excellent analysis

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.

Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I don't think Moreno is a sell low at all, he's definitely a hold... That said, If you can sell him for THAT kind of "low" then you should've made a deal months ago. Shonn Greene is a NO BRAINER right now, in fact, I'd be stunned if the Greene owner didn't make you throw in something extra to even it out. For a promising rookie like Spiller or Best, I'd personally part with him in a heartbeat. And I also wouldn't be too quick to reject any packages that include someone like a Donald Brown plus someone else (depending on my roster and the other player).

 

[Futeki]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I own Moreno and would take Greene in a heartbeat.Not sure if Donald Brown was much more impressive then Moreno, although he has a burst.

The first thing that came to mind for me with Knowshon was "no burst".

 

[noneother]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.

Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I don't think Moreno is a sell low at all, he's definitely a hold... That said, If you can sell him for THAT kind of "low" then you should've made a deal months ago. Shonn Greene is a NO BRAINER right now, in fact, I'd be stunned if the Greene owner didn't make you throw in something extra to even it out. For a promising rookie like Spiller or Best, I'd personally part with him in a heartbeat. And I also wouldn't be too quick to reject any packages that include someone like a Donald Brown plus someone else (depending on my roster and the other player).

Moreno is my rb3. Not sure I would move him for spiller or best. Spiller has at least Fred Jackson. And Best is a lion.

Do like Matthews tho.

 

[Mister CIA]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.

Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I don't think Moreno is a sell low at all, he's definitely a hold... That said, If you can sell him for THAT kind of "low" then you should've made a deal months ago. Shonn Greene is a NO BRAINER right now, in fact, I'd be stunned if the Greene owner didn't make you throw in something extra to even it out. For a promising rookie like Spiller or Best, I'd personally part with him in a heartbeat. And I also wouldn't be too quick to reject any packages that include someone like a Donald Brown plus someone else (depending on my roster and the other player).

Moreno is my rb3. Not sure I would move him for spiller or best. Spiller has at least Fred Jackson. And Best is a lion.

Do like Matthews tho.

If I owned Moreno I could not accept a deal for Jahvid Best fast enough.ETA: Actually I could accept it fast enough.

 

[D'OHtis]

If he stinks again this year, I might be worried. Not having Clady won't help either.

Why sell now? Might as well take that chance and roll with him for one more year.

By sell low I mean moving him for a Shonn Green, Spiller, or Donald Brown +. Selling low, only in the sense that I would be getting less than 1.01 value in return. Not selling low based on current value.

I don't think Moreno is a sell low at all, he's definitely a hold... That said, If you can sell him for THAT kind of "low" then you should've made a deal months ago. Shonn Greene is a NO BRAINER right now, in fact, I'd be stunned if the Greene owner didn't make you throw in something extra to even it out. For a promising rookie like Spiller or Best, I'd personally part with him in a heartbeat. And I also wouldn't be too quick to reject any packages that include someone like a Donald Brown plus someone else (depending on my roster and the other player).

Moreno is my rb3. Not sure I would move him for spiller or best. Spiller has at least Fred Jackson. And Best is a lion.

Do like Matthews tho.

If I owned Moreno I could not accept a deal for Jahvid Best fast enough.ETA: Actually I could accept it fast enough.

I can agree with this. I own Best & wouldn't part with him for Moreno straight up (have Best as the #1 RB in this class).Moreno will be given every chance in Denver so not all is lost. The scariest thing was Buckhalter looking much much more explosive last year.

 

[Texasmouth]

None of the rookies this year have played a single down. No one knows which one of these guys is going to be any good. Matthews may be good. He may not.

Moreno has at least played in the league for a year and will have two training camps under his belt. He will get better. I took him 1.02 last year in one of my dynasty leagues and there is no way I would trade him straight up for any of the rookie RB this season. People get too set on the next shiny new toy. Spillers may be an outright bust. Matthews may be a bust. Tate may be a bust. Who knows?

I dont know that Moreno will ever live up to being the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts but I think he will have 5-6 solid seasons. The rookies no one knows yet.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

None of the rookies this year have played a single down. No one knows which one of these guys is going to be any good. Matthews may be good. He may not. Moreno has at least played in the league for a year and will have two training camps under his belt. He will get better. I took him 1.02 last year in one of my dynasty leagues and there is no way I would trade him straight up for any of the rookie RB this season. People get too set on the next shiny new toy. Spillers may be an outright bust. Matthews may be a bust. Tate may be a bust. Who knows?I dont know that Moreno will ever live up to being the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts but I think he will have 5-6 solid seasons. The rookies no one knows yet.

At least Mathews and Best haven't already shown bust potential like Moreno has. I think that gives them the leg up over Moreno.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Beanie was far and away the best back last year. He has everything Moreno does not: vision, power and speed. Injuries and rumors he sat plays out held him back and scared teams.

I guess it was the injuries, but I thought people still had Wells as the best RB in the draft until a month or two prior. And anyway it seems like a lot of guys injured in college - McFadden, Lynch, etc. - are doing alright. Swings in groupthink become very powerful.

 

[Soaring Eagle]

knowson got hurt during training camp /preseason last year

the offense should be built around him this year - he will be a steal in redraft's this year

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My opinions on why Moreno won't make it in the NFL are the same as they were at this time last offseason. He's a smaller guy that relied on strength and tackle breaking in college but just doesn't have the body for it in the pros (and before anyone starts posting weight comparisons, I don't care if a guy has a bunch of weight in his biceps because that doesn't help you run the football. He just does not have a thick enough body type for his running style).

I'll make the same argument here that I did last year. In college thinking like a powerful runner is enough to actually be powerful even if you don't have the body type for it. In the pros, you need the physical strength to back it up. Knowshon is extremely similar to Cadillac Williams in both body type and running style and they both suffered the same thing. Tackles that they ran through in college stuff them in the pros.

 

[CaptainHook]

the general problem is that all of morenos qualities DID transfer to the nfl

 

[Uber]

None of the rookies this year have played a single down. No one knows which one of these guys is going to be any good. Matthews may be good. He may not.

Moreno has at least played in the league for a year and will have two training camps under his belt. He will get better. I took him 1.02 last year in one of my dynasty leagues and there is no way I would trade him straight up for any of the rookie RB this season. People get too set on the next shiny new toy. Spillers may be an outright bust. Matthews may be a bust. Tate may be a bust. Who knows?

I dont know that Moreno will ever live up to being the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts but I think he will have 5-6 solid seasons. The rookies no one knows yet.

Yeah it'd be better to wait until you know a rookie RB is going to be a stud, then try and get him straight up for Moreno.

 

[D'OHtis]

None of the rookies this year have played a single down. No one knows which one of these guys is going to be any good. Matthews may be good. He may not.

Moreno has at least played in the league for a year and will have two training camps under his belt. He will get better. I took him 1.02 last year in one of my dynasty leagues and there is no way I would trade him straight up for any of the rookie RB this season. People get too set on the next shiny new toy. Spillers may be an outright bust. Matthews may be a bust. Tate may be a bust. Who knows?

I dont know that Moreno will ever live up to being the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts but I think he will have 5-6 solid seasons. The rookies no one knows yet.

Yeah it'd be better to wait until you know a rookie RB is going to be a stud, then try and get him straight up for Moreno.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

seriously? moreno is a rookie that saw the headlights a little bit. nothing to be concerned about IMO. If he doenst look that good after this season then its time to panic.

BTW you guys touting Best buyer beware, he's a lion.

 

[BigTex]

Knowshown 2009: 247-947 3.8Emmitt 1990: 241-937 3.9SELL! SELL! SELL!

Emmitt missed the entire training camp and two games his rookie season.Tex

 

[cobalt_27]

Knowshown 2009: 247-947 3.8Emmitt 1990: 241-937 3.9SELL! SELL! SELL!

Emmitt missed the entire training camp and two games his rookie season.Tex

No he didn't.You're thinking of 1993.

 

[twr]

My opinions on why Moreno won't make it in the NFL are the same as they were at this time last offseason. He's a smaller guy that relied on strength and tackle breaking in college but just doesn't have the body for it in the pros (and before anyone starts posting weight comparisons, I don't care if a guy has a bunch of weight in his biceps because that doesn't help you run the football. He just does not have a thick enough body type for his running style).

I'll make the same argument here that I did last year. In college thinking like a powerful runner is enough to actually be powerful even if you don't have the body type for it. In the pros, you need the physical strength to back it up. Knowshon is extremely similar to Cadillac Williams in both body type and running style and they both suffered the same thing. Tackles that they ran through in college stuff them in the pros.

for you fellas who say hes not very powerful. he broke 33 tackles last year. he was top 10 in broken tackles.

"Chris Johnson (61) led the league, with Ray Rice (57), Adrian Peterson (56), Maurice Jones-Drew (52), and Steven Jackson (50) rounding out the top five. Promisingly, then-rookie Knowshon Moreno finished in the top ten with 33 broken tackles. "

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.

- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.

- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.

his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

 

[EBF]

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

There's a huge difference between a guy who doesn't play and a guy who plays and looks bad.In 2008 Mendenhall didn't play. The people who downgraded him were silly.In 2009 Moreno had 275 touches and looked very ordinary. In this case it makes sense to downgrade him.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

He got outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and was barely startable in FF leagues even though he practically had the workhorse role handed to him on a platter by a coaching staff that wanted him to succeed. There's no way I would trade Mathews for him.

 

[twr]

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

There's a huge difference between a guy who doesn't play and a guy who plays and looks bad.In 2008 Mendenhall didn't play. The people who downgraded him were silly.In 2009 Moreno had 275 touches and looked very ordinary. In this case it makes sense to downgrade him.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

He got outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and was barely startable in FF leagues even though he practically had the workhorse role handed to him on a platter by a coaching staff that wanted him to succeed. There's no way I would trade Mathews for him.

me and you disagree on how "ordinary" he looked. iv seen enough to hold.

 

[EBF]

me and you disagree on how "ordinary" he looked. iv seen enough to hold.

I've already said my piece on Moreno:

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

 

[BigTex]

Knowshown 2009: 247-947 3.8Emmitt 1990: 241-937 3.9SELL! SELL! SELL!

Emmitt missed the entire training camp and two games his rookie season.Tex

No he didn't.You're thinking of 1993.

He missed training camp in both seasons, dispute over money. Became the starter after game two in his rookie season and because of disputes joined the team after week two in 1993. Im going off memory which is not saying much but I certain this was the case.

 

[twr]

me and you disagree on how "ordinary" he looked. iv seen enough to hold.

I've already said my piece on Moreno:

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

patrick willis was hurt but was still able to play in 16 games... the great ones play hurt. sometimes things dont make sense. moreno is one of those things... hes another tebow. his desire is what sets him apart. i believe there is a larger chance he becomes great than there is of him busting. might he? sure... but ill take the chance that his slow start is due to other reasons... playcalling, injuries, entering camp late, poor oline play... hes a football player. ill bet on those every time.

 

[gregjcross]

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

There's a huge difference between a guy who doesn't play and a guy who plays and looks bad.In 2008 Mendenhall didn't play. The people who downgraded him were silly.In 2009 Moreno had 275 touches and looked very ordinary. In this case it makes sense to downgrade him.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

He got outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and was barely startable in FF leagues even though he practically had the workhorse role handed to him on a platter by a coaching staff that wanted him to succeed. There's no way I would trade Mathews for him.

Moreno was not impressive for sure as a rookie, but he is being written off pretty quickly here where as a lot of guys that were drafted high do much better in their second and third season. To my memory, a lot of people said Ray Rice could not carry the load or that Mendenhall was looking like a lost cause who could not beat out Willie Parker. The jury on Knowshon cannot be out or baked until we have at least another full season to evaluate him. I would find it hard to believe he is not strong enough to be an effective runner given the opportunity. I have been fooled before of course, I thought that DMAC would have been a much better player than what he is. Hope for Moreno owners that he doesn't suffer a similar fate.

 

[Glaven]

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

There's a huge difference between a guy who doesn't play and a guy who plays and looks bad.In 2008 Mendenhall didn't play. The people who downgraded him were silly.In 2009 Moreno had 275 touches and looked very ordinary. In this case it makes sense to downgrade him.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

He got outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and was barely startable in FF leagues even though he practically had the workhorse role handed to him on a platter by a coaching staff that wanted him to succeed. There's no way I would trade Mathews for him.

Moreno was not impressive for sure as a rookie, but he is being written off pretty quickly here where as a lot of guys that were drafted high do much better in their second and third season. To my memory, a lot of people said Ray Rice could not carry the load or that Mendenhall was looking like a lost cause who could not beat out Willie Parker. The jury on Knowshon cannot be out or baked until we have at least another full season to evaluate him. I would find it hard to believe he is not strong enough to be an effective runner given the opportunity. I have been fooled before of course, I thought that DMAC would have been a much better player than what he is. Hope for Moreno owners that he doesn't suffer a similar fate.

The difference between Moreno's situation and the situations of Rice and Mendenhall that you are talking about is that we have already seen Moreno with a full seasons workload, and it was not an impressive performance. Moreno has already been given the opportunity to succeed, and he did mediocre at best. I'm not saying that Moreno is a for sure bust, as stated earlier in this thread i think if Moreno plays this season like he's not paranoid of fumbling like he was last season i think we will see a definite increase in production. I think the reason people are writing Moreno off early is because he still holds value now, so you can trade him and getting something back in return. If you wait one more season and he underperforms again then his value will drop signifcantly. So if you're not a full fledge believer in Moreno's ability, now is the time to sell.

 

[gregjcross]

most of you are going to sell him, like most of you sold mendy.

There's a huge difference between a guy who doesn't play and a guy who plays and looks bad.In 2008 Mendenhall didn't play. The people who downgraded him were silly.In 2009 Moreno had 275 touches and looked very ordinary. In this case it makes sense to downgrade him.

- he was injured during the preseason and never had the burst hes known for.- he came into camp late, which always hurts rookies.- hes now the center piece for a offense that drafted him at #12.his value is right about even with mathews.. but id rather have the knowshon.

He got outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and was barely startable in FF leagues even though he practically had the workhorse role handed to him on a platter by a coaching staff that wanted him to succeed. There's no way I would trade Mathews for him.

Moreno was not impressive for sure as a rookie, but he is being written off pretty quickly here where as a lot of guys that were drafted high do much better in their second and third season. To my memory, a lot of people said Ray Rice could not carry the load or that Mendenhall was looking like a lost cause who could not beat out Willie Parker. The jury on Knowshon cannot be out or baked until we have at least another full season to evaluate him. I would find it hard to believe he is not strong enough to be an effective runner given the opportunity. I have been fooled before of course, I thought that DMAC would have been a much better player than what he is. Hope for Moreno owners that he doesn't suffer a similar fate.

The difference between Moreno's situation and the situations of Rice and Mendenhall that you are talking about is that we have already seen Moreno with a full seasons workload, and it was not an impressive performance. Moreno has already been given the opportunity to succeed, and he did mediocre at best. I'm not saying that Moreno is a for sure bust, as stated earlier in this thread i think if Moreno plays this season like he's not paranoid of fumbling like he was last season i think we will see a definite increase in production. I think the reason people are writing Moreno off early is because he still holds value now, so you can trade him and getting something back in return. If you wait one more season and he underperforms again then his value will drop signifcantly. So if you're not a full fledge believer in Moreno's ability, now is the time to sell.

To my estimation, DEN coaching staff never intended to play Moreno full time, even before they selected him. Last March, They had went out and gathered up Lamont Jordan, JJ Arrington and Buckhalter, and I actually think they had roles in mind for playing up to three backs. They wanted to ease Moreno in as a rookie (not making excuses for him because they still may stay committed to committee) and that is what they did> Kinda like R.Rice, J.Stewart and Mendenhall.

 

[Kleck]

RB- A Look at Yards Gained after Contact

If Moreno's 63.5% is accurate, there is nothing ordinary about that.

 

[The Jacket]

RB- A Look at Yards Gained after Contact

If Moreno's 63.5% is accurate, there is nothing ordinary about that.

He's probably one of the few easiest RBs in the league to catch at or behind the LOS. Look at the guys over 70%, quoted direct from that article (with the addition of LJ on the end):Clinton Portis (71.1%), Tim Hightower (71.4%), Michael Bush (71.6%), and Jason Snelling (73.9%), Marshawn Lynch (75%), and Larry Johnson (77.4%).

Guys with little to no burst who always find themselves plodding right into a defender before the play has developed.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

RB- A Look at Yards Gained after Contact

If Moreno's 63.5% is accurate, there is nothing ordinary about that.

He's probably one of the few easiest RBs in the league to catch at or behind the LOS. Look at the guys over 70%, quoted direct from that article (with the addition of LJ on the end):Clinton Portis (71.1%), Tim Hightower (71.4%), Michael Bush (71.6%), and Jason Snelling (73.9%), Marshawn Lynch (75%), and Larry Johnson (77.4%).

Guys with little to no burst who always find themselves plodding right into a defender before the play has developed.

Good gosh, Johnson goes 230# and Bush goes 240#+ IIRC. Every one of those guys is heavier than Moreno and arguably, with the exception of Portis, isn't playing heavier than their ideal weight.If a guy wehing less than 220# is able to break tackles to a tune similar to a 240# back, I don't see that as a negative.

How does his YPC compare to those guys? If it's higher, that means he's doing more before contact than they are, doesn't it? Wouldn't that imply that he's quicker than they are?

Moreno didn't look like ADP did as a rookie, but he wasn't horrible. He was playing heavier, which was bound to take some getting used to, in addition to stepping up into a faster game speed.

I'm not an owner, but I wouldn't turn up my nose if someone offered him to me. It'll take another year for me to make up my mind. He probably needs to trim some weight. The game will slow down for him some this season and if he gets a bit quicker...

 

[moleculo]

RB- A Look at Yards Gained after Contact

If Moreno's 63.5% is accurate, there is nothing ordinary about that.

He's probably one of the few easiest RBs in the league to catch at or behind the LOS. Look at the guys over 70%, quoted direct from that article (with the addition of LJ on the end):Clinton Portis (71.1%), Tim Hightower (71.4%), Michael Bush (71.6%), and Jason Snelling (73.9%), Marshawn Lynch (75%), and Larry Johnson (77.4%).

Guys with little to no burst who always find themselves plodding right into a defender before the play has developed.

so do guys who don't have effective blocking. Den's guards were pretty terrible last year, especially down the stretch. It's tough to make a play when you've got DT's in your face when you take the hand-off.

 

[moleculo]

my analysis from an earlier Moreno thread:

* a response at a site called broncotalk... an MCL sprain could explain the slow start... looking at his game log, it was all over the place... in games 2-5, his Y/A was 4.4, 4.3, 4.6 & 4.2... in games 6-8, it was 2.4, 3.9 & .6 (on just 5 carries)... in games 9-12, it was 5.4, 8.0, 4.6 & 4.1... than the wheels came off in december, games 13-16... 2.7, 2.2, 2.0 & 3.6... we can't cherry pick stats, but if he hadn't entered the season with a knee sprain, possibly with game conditioning hindrances, maybe he would have started off better... in his best four game stretch in nov, he had 351 yards and three TDs rushing... in the aforementioned stretch of weeks 2-5 (8 carries week one), he had games with 75, 88 & 90 rushing yards, including a rushing and a receiving TD... one concern that has been raised is that in some of the same games, buckhalter did better than moreno... the response below attempts to address this (which resonates with what moleculo alluded to upthread)...

look at the competition in games 6-8: @ SD, @ BAL, home for Pittsburgh, all three coming off of bye-weeks (that's right, Den played three consecutive playoff opponents coming off of a bye). Week 6 is where SD's rush D started to come together after giving up some big gains previously - before week 6 no one rushed for less than 130, after weeks 6 only the Titans rushed for more than 130. Bal had the league #5 rush D, Pitt was #3.I don't have a good explanation for what happened from week 13 and on, other than the entire offense looked like crap, especially the interior OL and the play-calling got terrible.

"Moreno often got hammered by defensive tackles who were constantly in the backfield and in his grille when he got the ball handed to him, especially in the second half (when Harris didn't play and our interior line fell apart). Also, his run per average is skewed negatively because he's the one who got the bulk of obvious running plays thanks to McD's much-too-conservative approach. Further, Buckhalter benefited from getting the ball on a lot of outside stretch plays and sweeps whereas Moreno got the bulk of inside run plays (where our interior linemen were getting manhandled)."

agree with this 100%. my hindsight is a bit fuzzy, but this O struggled with short yardage rushing all season, and rotated backs in and out. McD started out with Hillis, then went to Jordan, and seemed to settle on Moreno. Being the short yardage back on a team with a traditionally undersized OL and guys who started the season on the bench starting (Hochstein, Polumbus) isn't exactly a recipe for success.Look at where he's rated highest in russ lande's scouting report - 8.5 in between the tackles. IMO that is Moreno's strength - he's really good at making himself small and squeezing through a hole you didn't think was there. I think that's why McD had him be the short yardage guy - he's good at that. But when you aren't getting the blocking, it's tough to make something happen. Also, guys like that are only gonna have supreme fantasy value if they get the ball at the stripe, and get it alot. TD's are where it's gonna be at for Moreno, and as we all know, TD's are notoriously hard to predict.

 

[Concept Coop]

RB- A Look at Yards Gained after Contact

If Moreno's 63.5% is accurate, there is nothing ordinary about that.

He's probably one of the few easiest RBs in the league to catch at or behind the LOS. Look at the guys over 70%, quoted direct from that article (with the addition of LJ on the end):Clinton Portis (71.1%), Tim Hightower (71.4%), Michael Bush (71.6%), and Jason Snelling (73.9%), Marshawn Lynch (75%), and Larry Johnson (77.4%).

Guys with little to no burst who always find themselves plodding right into a defender before the play has developed.

so do guys who don't have effective blocking. Den's guards were pretty terrible last year, especially down the stretch. It's tough to make a play when you've got DT's in your face when you take the hand-off.

Buckhalter did it and was more effective in doing so. I watched a lot of Moreno last year. Sure, he line was far from great. But he O-line is not the reason he underperformed. He simply wasn't a very good NFL runningback.