Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here are the results from this year . . .
MIA ended up 5-11
DAL went 8-8
LAC fell all the way to 5-11.
LAR dipped to 9-7.
Pretty close to what the expected results suggested.
I will research this year's results.
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What Happens To NFL Teams After Extreme W/L Records In One Possession Games (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
MIA ended up 5-11
DAL went 8-8
LAC fell all the way to 5-11.
LAR dipped to 9-7.
Pretty close to what the expected results suggested.
I will research this year's results.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
The Seahawks are an insane outlier in this stat this year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
A bunch of teams met the criteria this year. If the trend continues (and it pretty much has been accurate since 2006) . . .
Record in one score games in 2019:
SEA 10-2
GBP 8-1
NOS 7-1
HOU 8-3
LAC 2-9
CIN 0-8
DET 3-8
DAL 1-6
That would mean for the 2020 season . . .
SEA 11-5 --> 8-8
GBP 13-3 --> 10-6
NOS 13-3 --> 10-6
HOU 10-6 --> 7-9
LAC 5-11 --> 9-7
CIN 2-14 --> 6-10
DET 3-12-1 --> 7-8-1
DAL 8-8 --> 12-4
Record in one score games in 2019:
SEA 10-2
GBP 8-1
NOS 7-1
HOU 8-3
LAC 2-9
CIN 0-8
DET 3-8
DAL 1-6
That would mean for the 2020 season . . .
SEA 11-5 --> 8-8
GBP 13-3 --> 10-6
NOS 13-3 --> 10-6
HOU 10-6 --> 7-9
LAC 5-11 --> 9-7
CIN 2-14 --> 6-10
DET 3-12-1 --> 7-8-1
DAL 8-8 --> 12-4
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Detroit is a really interesting one. They may have gone 7-8-1 simply if Stafford hadn't gotten hurt, add their bad luck in close games, and they seem like a team that could make a huge jump next year, especially if they nail the #3 pick.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's cool information, but data mine opening vs closing season win totals and you'll see that it's not some secret you will be able to retire on.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Darn it, and here I already planned my retirement party. Now I can only afford a clown instead of all those strippers.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Well, this season things did not go as well as prior seasons . . .
SEA trend prediction 8-8 . . . actual record 12-4
GBP trend prediction 10-6 . . . actual record 13-3
NOS trend prediction 10-6 . . . actual record 12-4
HOU trend prediction 7-9 . . . actual record 4-12
LAC trend prediction 9-7 . . . actual record 7-9
CIN trend prediction 6-10 . . . actual record 4-11-1
DET trend prediction 7-8-1 . . . actual record 5-11
DAL trend prediction 12-4 . . . actual record 6-10
Basically WAYYYYY off. I will have to check to see which teams will be candidates this upcoming season.
rzrback77
Footballguy
The last three all had injury issues which definitely impacted these projections negatively and with the changes at Houston, I don't see how anybody could project that downturn.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am also guessing the COVID situation with a limited preseason and a lot fewer practices impacted some teams more than others. This may end up being a mulligan season. Also, homefield and crowd noise tends to impact the outcome of close games, and this season there was neither . . . meaning that next season may be another odd one in considering this trend.
rockaction
Footballguy
Cincinnati was close?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
the closest as it turns out - and if Burrow doesn't get hurt they likely pick up a couple more wins to hit the mark.
Q for @Anarchy99 do you have the statistics year vs year on how these teams did in just the close games? The luck might still have evened out but the overall level of the team changed to such a degree that it obscured that.
Thanks for the hard work
-QG
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The results from this season yield the following candidates for next year . . .
Record in close games in 2020 . . . projected 2021 record
KCC 8-1 . . . 11-5
PIT 7-2 . . . 9-7
CLE 7-2 . . . 8-8
TEN 7-2 . . . 8-8
SEA 8-3 . . . 9-7
HOU 2-8 . . . 8-8
ATL 2-8 . . . 8-8
JAX 1-6 . . . 5-11
CAR 3-8 . . . 9-7
Record in close games in 2020 . . . projected 2021 record
KCC 8-1 . . . 11-5
PIT 7-2 . . . 9-7
CLE 7-2 . . . 8-8
TEN 7-2 . . . 8-8
SEA 8-3 . . . 9-7
HOU 2-8 . . . 8-8
ATL 2-8 . . . 8-8
JAX 1-6 . . . 5-11
CAR 3-8 . . . 9-7
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not quite the same results this year as other season. May have to adjust moving forward to account for 17 games.
Record in close games in 2020 . . . projected 2021 record . . . actual 2021 record
KCC 8-1 . . . 11-5 . . . 12-5
PIT 7-2 . . . 9-7 . . . 9-7-1
CLE 7-2 . . . 8-8 . . . 8-9
TEN 7-2 . . . 8-8 . . . 12-5
SEA 8-3 . . . 9-7 . . . 7-10
HOU 2-8 . . . 8-8 . . . 4-13
ATL 2-8 . . . 8-8 . . . 7-10
JAX 1-6 . . . 5-11 . . . 3-14
CAR 3-8 . . . 9-7 . . . 5-12
Record in close games in 2020 . . . projected 2021 record . . . actual 2021 record
KCC 8-1 . . . 11-5 . . . 12-5
PIT 7-2 . . . 9-7 . . . 9-7-1
CLE 7-2 . . . 8-8 . . . 8-9
TEN 7-2 . . . 8-8 . . . 12-5
SEA 8-3 . . . 9-7 . . . 7-10
HOU 2-8 . . . 8-8 . . . 4-13
ATL 2-8 . . . 8-8 . . . 7-10
JAX 1-6 . . . 5-11 . . . 3-14
CAR 3-8 . . . 9-7 . . . 5-12
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That would make this year's candidates:
BUF (0-5 in one score games) . . . 11-5 in 2021 . . . +4 wins . . . 15-2 in 2022
PIT (8-2 in one score games) . . . 9-7-1 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 6-10-1 in 2022
TB (6-0 in one score games) . . . 13-4 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 10-7 in 2022
ATL (7-2 in one score games . . . 7-10 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 4-13 in 2022
Those are the only qualifiers this year.
BUF (0-5 in one score games) . . . 11-5 in 2021 . . . +4 wins . . . 15-2 in 2022
PIT (8-2 in one score games) . . . 9-7-1 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 6-10-1 in 2022
TB (6-0 in one score games) . . . 13-4 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 10-7 in 2022
ATL (7-2 in one score games . . . 7-10 in 2021 . . . -3 wins . . . 4-13 in 2022
Those are the only qualifiers this year.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
This is really interesting. Does it matter at all about QB changes. For instance Pit and maybe ATL could have new QBs and that would definitely impact W-L.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It hasn't in the extended study time frame, but I think there are factors that can distort certain outcomes. For example, COVID changed the usual routine last year . . . who knows what that did to game planning and player availability. This year, Watson sat out the entire season, so that obviously made a huge difference for the Texans. Of the two teams you mentioned with potential QB swaps, they are both already predicted to take a step backwards.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Right, but with a major change like QB I would think that would be the reason more than regressing in 1 score games. If most things stay constant on the teams this model would be very interesting to look at because I think you could really be on to something.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I forgot to follow up on thus and am catching up now.
BUF expected to increase to 15 wins in 2022 . . . ended with 13 wins. MISS.
PIT expected to dip to 6.5 wins . . . ended with 9 wins. MISS.
TBB expected to drop to 10 wins . . . ended up with 8 wins. HIT.
ATL expected to fall to 4 wins . . . ended up with 7 wins. MISS.
IIRC, that was the first time that the overall results ended up opposite of what was expected (1-3).
After the 2022 season, the teams that qualified as outlier W/L totals in close games were:
CHI (1-7 in one score games) . . . 3-14 in 2022 . . . +4 wins . . . 7-10 expected in 2023 . . . 7-10 actual record. HIT.
LVR (4-9 in one score games) . . . 6-11 in 2022 . . . +4 wins . . . 10-7 expected in 2023 . . . 8-9 actual record. MISS.
DEN (4-9 in one score games) . . . 5-12 in 2022 . . . +4 wins . . . 9-8 expected in 2023 . . . 8-9 actual record. Close but still a MISS.
MIN (11-0 in one score games) . . . 13-4 in 2022 . . . -3 wins . . . 10-7 expected in 2023 . . . 7-10 actual record. HIT (in that they dropped by at least 3 games).
PHI (8-2 in one score games) . . . 14-2 in 2022 . . . -3 wins . . . 11-6 expected in 2023 . . . 11-6 actual record. HIT.
NYG (9.5-4.5 in one score games) . . . 9.5-7.5 in 2022 . . . -3 wins . . . 6.5-10.5 expected in 2023 . . . 6-11 actual record. HIT.
Ended up on the right side of the ledger that season (4-2)
Based on the 2023 season results, the teams that qualify for this upcoming season are:
LAC (3-8 in one score games) . . . 5-12 in 2023 . . . +4 wins . . . 9-8 expected in 2024.
PIT (9-2 in one score games) . . . 10-7 in 2023 . . . -3 wins . . . 7-10 expected in 2024. (The Steelers haven't had a losing record since 2003, so this one seems unlikely.)
PHI (8-3 in one score games) . . . 11-6 in 2023 . . . -3 wins . . . 8-9 expected in 2024.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Haven't followed the thread or looked into your data or methodology, but interesting topic.
I wouldn't call that a miss. No team should be expected to win 15 games. You expected them to have some positive regression and they did. I'd count that as a win.
Essentially I think the issue is applying a straight +4 or -3 to every team who falls into these buckets. You have to refine that part .
In other words, what is the hypothesis exactly? That one-score games are pretty random and in the long run you'd expect teams to be about .500 in them? For example, if you went 3-8 in one score games last year, why should that equate to 4 additional wins this year? If you had average luck in one score games you would've only had ~2.5 extra wins.
I wouldn't call that a miss. No team should be expected to win 15 games. You expected them to have some positive regression and they did. I'd count that as a win.
Essentially I think the issue is applying a straight +4 or -3 to every team who falls into these buckets. You have to refine that part .
In other words, what is the hypothesis exactly? That one-score games are pretty random and in the long run you'd expect teams to be about .500 in them? For example, if you went 3-8 in one score games last year, why should that equate to 4 additional wins this year? If you had average luck in one score games you would've only had ~2.5 extra wins.
