What has been invented in the 21st century? (2 Viewers)

[chet]

I think EG is right, despite the long term trend in information explosion, new product introductions and patents, we're due for a slow century.

Nope if anything the rate of invention is progressing geometrically. We aren't slowing down at all.

I disagree with anyone suggesting that our pace of change is slow. It's as fast as it's ever been and it's accelerating IMO.

 

[(HULK)]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

In 1993 I had a rotary phone in my house. My TV was a 27 inch curved screen box that was enormous. I drove a Dodge Spirit without power windows/locks, and only 1 airbag.The past 20 years, stuff has started happening, but I agree, its not DRASTIC changes. And it feels small because we lived through it as it gradually happened. But the thing to consider is how enabling the internet and smart phone revolution really is. People worldwide have access to an incredible ammount of information now... this should kick innovation into a higher gear. More brains have more resources and information available to them, more stuff should be invented.I really think that we're just about at the knee of the curve for technology. Progress seems to be quickening. If it is an exponential trend (1,1,2,4,16,256,65536,etc) then I think we're at about 16 right now. The next 20 to 40 years we move to 256. The subsequent 20 to 40 years we move to 65536, and at that point we are completely unrecognizable to our current selves.

Moore's Law basically, but that is linear and not exponential.

Moore's Law is a doubling ever 2 years, right? So, yeah, not exponential, but not straight line either. 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,etc.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think EG is right, despite the long term trend in information explosion, new product introductions and patents, we're due for a slow century.

Nope if anything the rate of invention is progressing geometrically. We aren't slowing down at all.

I agree. However, it seems innovation is more focused on improvement than creation right now. I'm just wondering if that's part of a natural ebb and flow or whether we've reached a plateau of sorts. It feels a bit like the latter right now, but I'm certainly not making a declaration to that end, I don't know nearly enough to do so. I was just hoping to foster some spirited discussion on the subject.

 

[(HULK)]

EG, when Google Glass kicks off next year before christmas, and you are essentially wearing your smartphone on your face, is that "still your phone"? Or will that impress you.PS: Google Occulus Rift if you want to see where VR is headed in the next 5 years.

 

[Apple Jack]

Brain caps

 

[(HULK)]

I think EG is right, despite the long term trend in information explosion, new product introductions and patents, we're due for a slow century.

Nope if anything the rate of invention is progressing geometrically. We aren't slowing down at all.

I agree. However, it seems innovation is more focused on improvement than creation right now. I'm just wondering if that's part of a natural ebb and flow or whether we've reached a plateau of sorts. It feels a bit like the latter right now, but I'm certainly not making a declaration to that end, I don't know nearly enough to do so. I was just hoping to foster some spirited discussion on the subject.

It really just depends on how you look at things. Look at communication. We've been communicating for milenias. First spoken words, then written, then telegrams, then phones, then email, then cell phones, then video conferencing, next probably in VR. At the bottom line, its still communication. You can say a smart phone is just a better telephone, but really thats just saying its a better way of talking and we've been doing that forever.

 

[roadkill1292]

Cheap, painless, convenient and 100% effective male contraception. Sometime around the age of 10, you'll get a simple vaccination. It'll change all social, political and economical relationships across the planet.

 

[NCCommish]

EG, the genetic revolution is going to drastically change health care in the very near future.

How so? I admittedly know little about this topic, so any information/thoughts you have would be greatly appreciated.

Well at some point we will be able to treat a number of diseases and cancers before you are born with some tweaks to your genetics, you'll just never get them. We will be able to increase life expectancy dramatically probably within 20 years. It is really a long list of advances coming.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, when Google Glass kicks off next year before christmas, and you are essentially wearing your smartphone on your face, is that "still your phone"? Or will that impress you.PS: Google Occulus Rift if you want to see where VR is headed in the next 5 years.

This isn't about my being impressed or not. No one is saying modern innovation isn't impressive, in fact, it's much more impressive than at any other time in human history. I feel like you're not really reading my replies.I am going to google this stuff you mention right now, I'm keen to learn.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think EG is right, despite the long term trend in information explosion, new product introductions and patents, we're due for a slow century.

Nope if anything the rate of invention is progressing geometrically. We aren't slowing down at all.

I agree. However, it seems innovation is more focused on improvement than creation right now. I'm just wondering if that's part of a natural ebb and flow or whether we've reached a plateau of sorts. It feels a bit like the latter right now, but I'm certainly not making a declaration to that end, I don't know nearly enough to do so. I was just hoping to foster some spirited discussion on the subject.

It really just depends on how you look at things. Look at communication. We've been communicating for milenias. First spoken words, then written, then telegrams, then phones, then email, then cell phones, then video conferencing, next probably in VR. At the bottom line, its still communication. You can say a smart phone is just a better telephone, but really thats just saying its a better way of talking and we've been doing that forever.

I would say a smart phone is a :1) Better phone

2) Better internet (mobile)

3) Mobile GPS

Etc. Nothing about it is a new invention on its face, it's improving a number of different things at once and putting it together in a portable package. Staggering, to be sure, but compared to the advance of say, the telephone as a way to communicate rather than via physical mail, it's not something "new." You see what I mean? I understand it's night and day compared to a 1940s rotary dial phone, but it's more a way of consolidating and packaging several other ideas in a handheld device rather than being an entirely unique concept.

 

[encaitar]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

I disagree with this completely. 15 years ago the internet was a gimmick. It took 10 minutes for a page to load and was used basically to replace an encyclopedia or a newspaper. Email was something fun and different to try. You bragged every time you received a message. Today, the very fabric of our society is run by the internet. Most office workers read and respond to over 50 emails a day minimum. The entire workplace has been changed. Small companies now have access to a global marketplace, something than was impossible less than 2 decades ago. I could go on and on, but the point is that this one invention has brought about more change in our day to day lives than anything since the automobile IMO and it's all happened in the last 15 years.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, the genetic revolution is going to drastically change health care in the very near future.

How so? I admittedly know little about this topic, so any information/thoughts you have would be greatly appreciated.

Well at some point we will be able to treat a number of diseases and cancers before you are born with some tweaks to your genetics, you'll just never get them. We will be able to increase life expectancy dramatically probably within 20 years. It is really a long list of advances coming.

See, now THAT would be something brand new, something without precedent. Amazing.

 

[MikeIke]

I imagine that there will be a new type of propulsion for spacecraft invented sometime in this century. This will allow inexpensive, fast travel throughout the solar system and possibly beyond. We would also be able to travel to asteroids and mine them for natural resources.

 

[Ilov80s]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

In 1993 I had a rotary phone in my house. My TV was a 27 inch curved screen box that was enormous. I drove a Dodge Spirit without power windows/locks, and only 1 airbag.The past 20 years, stuff has started happening, but I agree, its not DRASTIC changes. And it feels small because we lived through it as it gradually happened. But the thing to consider is how enabling the internet and smart phone revolution really is. People worldwide have access to an incredible ammount of information now... this should kick innovation into a higher gear. More brains have more resources and information available to them, more stuff should be invented.I really think that we're just about at the knee of the curve for technology. Progress seems to be quickening. If it is an exponential trend (1,1,2,4,16,256,65536,etc) then I think we're at about 16 right now. The next 20 to 40 years we move to 256. The subsequent 20 to 40 years we move to 65536, and at that point we are completely unrecognizable to our current selves.

Moore's Law basically, but that is linear and not exponential.

Moore's Law is a doubling ever 2 years, right? So, yeah, not exponential, but not straight line either. 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,etc.

It is exponential, my fault. Wasnt thinking, just looking at a graph and not even stopping to realize the graph for a logarithm.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, when Google Glass kicks off next year before christmas, and you are essentially wearing your smartphone on your face, is that "still your phone"? Or will that impress you.PS: Google Occulus Rift if you want to see where VR is headed in the next 5 years.

Interesting stuff. I'm curious to see where Google Glass and its kin go. I wonder if people will want to wear these glasses all the time or not. Seems like they're a horrific potential road hazard as well if used irresponsibly.Oculus Rift I don't see taking off unless they figure out a way to integrate it with the current or next generation of major game consoles.

 

[(HULK)]

EG, if you're looking for something to google, try searching SENS and Aubrey DeGrey. Dude is a super genius working to end aging. Not sure if he'll ever be sucessful, but I'm crossing my fingers for him imo. Also, if you're looking for a forum tracking technology breakthroughs, check out Kurweilai's forums. Pretty decent place.

 

[(HULK)]

EG, when Google Glass kicks off next year before christmas, and you are essentially wearing your smartphone on your face, is that "still your phone"? Or will that impress you.PS: Google Occulus Rift if you want to see where VR is headed in the next 5 years.

Interesting stuff. I'm curious to see where Google Glass and its kin go. I wonder if people will want to wear these glasses all the time or not. Seems like they're a horrific potential road hazard as well if used irresponsibly.Oculus Rift I don't see taking off unless they figure out a way to integrate it with the current or next generation of major game consoles.

I'm pretty sure something like Occulus Rift will eventually be a part of the next gen consoles. Wether the tech is liscensed out or bought outright or copied, its coming imo.As for the google glass thing... hopefully it starts to catch on the same time self driving cars do. I'm sure at first people will resist wearing those stupid looking things all the time, but eventually it will become standard.

 

[BroadwayG]

lolcats down?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

I disagree with this completely. 15 years ago the internet was a gimmick. It took 10 minutes for a page to load and was used basically to replace an encyclopedia or a newspaper. Email was something fun and different to try. You bragged every time you received a message. Today, the very fabric of our society is run by the internet. Most office workers read and respond to over 50 emails a day minimum. The entire workplace has been changed. Small companies now have access to a global marketplace, something than was impossible less than 2 decades ago. I could go on and on, but the point is that this one invention has brought about more change in our day to day lives than anything since the automobile IMO and it's all happened in the last 15 years.

First off, I've said a few times that the internet is the most substantial new invention since the television. No one is disputing that. The proliferation of the internet is a 20th century development, however. I know for a fact I was communicating largely through e-mail, used web-integrated business software, and was playing MMO games prior to the year 2000. Years prior, in fact.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, if you're looking for something to google, try searching SENS and Aubrey DeGrey. Dude is a super genius working to end aging. Not sure if he'll ever be sucessful, but I'm crossing my fingers for him imo. Also, if you're looking for a forum tracking technology breakthroughs, check out Kurweilai's forums. Pretty decent place.

Going to do that right now. Thanks for all this info, GB.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, when Google Glass kicks off next year before christmas, and you are essentially wearing your smartphone on your face, is that "still your phone"? Or will that impress you.PS: Google Occulus Rift if you want to see where VR is headed in the next 5 years.

Interesting stuff. I'm curious to see where Google Glass and its kin go. I wonder if people will want to wear these glasses all the time or not. Seems like they're a horrific potential road hazard as well if used irresponsibly.Oculus Rift I don't see taking off unless they figure out a way to integrate it with the current or next generation of major game consoles.

I'm pretty sure something like Occulus Rift will eventually be a part of the next gen consoles. Wether the tech is liscensed out or bought outright or copied, its coming imo.As for the google glass thing... hopefully it starts to catch on the same time self driving cars do. I'm sure at first people will resist wearing those stupid looking things all the time, but eventually it will become standard.

I'd think it would need to be. I've been waiting for what seems like a decade for VR to become viable in the home, I'm rooting for them all the way. It feels like they would need to be able to tie it in with an existing console, at least initially, for it to really take off quickly.The Google Glass appears to have a lot of potential competitors developing similar products right now. Fascinating stuff, and closer than I thought to being a consumer reality. I would imagine they would HAVE to make it illegal to wear those things and drive. Add to that the fact that they're already moving on from glass-required 3D television and something tells me a lot of people that aren't the type to "need" to own every new technology that comes out might resist these devices initially. Anxious to see how it plays out.

 

[strykerpks]

The Fleshlight

 

[(HULK)]

The future will be awesome imo

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?Fascinating stuff.

 

[(HULK)]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

when was 3D printing invented? I think the advances in 3D printing have a lot of potential to drive innovation

I saw a 3D printer in the mid 90s.

Yeah, I don't get why this is suddenly all the rage. It's kind of old news. I even know a colleague that bought one for his house for his kids to play with.

 

[T Bell]

Vajazzling.

 

[(HULK)]

when was 3D printing invented? I think the advances in 3D printing have a lot of potential to drive innovation

I saw a 3D printer in the mid 90s.

Yeah, I don't get why this is suddenly all the rage. It's kind of old news. I even know a colleague that bought one for his house for his kids to play with.

Cause they're getting better. Enough so that you can extrapolate a near future where you never need to buy a frying pan or coffee mug or fine china because you can just print it out at home.

 

[NCCommish]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?

Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.

I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

Well it is about quality of life. If I am the 50 year old who is going to live to be 1000 I don't want to put on much more wear and tear to this body. I also don't want to become a babbling infant somewhere down the road because the human brain isn't meant to be in use that long. But if I can have a decent quality of life then yeah. EG does raise some other serious questions as well. Pretty sure Social Security never envisioned 900+ years of paying a retiree. Do you end up having to work 960 years then you get to retire? What about housing and food? Longer life at this level is a paradigm shift of epic proportions and we aren't near ready to deal with it.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

I would too, theoretically, but everyone you love and/or care about would need to be on the same regimen, otherwise you end up like McLeod in "Highlander." Mortality was the prize, remember (spoiler alert)The bigger worry would be what would happen if people stopped dying of old age. The population would be out of control in no time.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.Examples:electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etcAutomobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc). This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

 

[(HULK)]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?

Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.

I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

Well it is about quality of life. If I am the 50 year old who is going to live to be 1000 I don't want to put on much more wear and tear to this body. I also don't want to become a babbling infant somewhere down the road because the human brain isn't meant to be in use that long. But if I can have a decent quality of life then yeah. EG does raise some other serious questions as well. Pretty sure Social Security never envisioned 900+ years of paying a retiree. Do you end up having to work 960 years then you get to retire? What about housing and food? Longer life at this level is a paradigm shift of epic proportions and we aren't near ready to deal with it.

I suggest reading Lights in the Tunnel or Abundance to address your questions. The work landscape is also going to be drastically transformed this century. Economics is all about the distribution of scarce resources. What does that turn into when resources are no longer scarce? I'm not sure... I have contemplated pursuing a PhD in Economics with the goal of trying to figure that out, but I don't have the ability to drop out of the workforce to do so. But, anyways, the in a nutshell growth in solar and other alternative renewable energies coupled with grow in home 3d manufacturing coupled with a large uptick in automation might mean that people don't have jobs in the future, or at least not like they do now.

 

[(HULK)]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

I would too, theoretically, but everyone you love and/or care about would need to be on the same regimen, otherwise you end up like McLeod in "Highlander." Mortality was the prize, remember (spoiler alert)The bigger worry would be what would happen if people stopped dying of old age. The population would be out of control in no time.

If you want to really blow your mind, check out quantum resurrection. I don't really know if it is possible or not, but some people seem to think we'll bring back all of the dead eventually.As for population growth... I'm sure there is an upper limit for the planet's capacity... whenever that is reached it would have to be a "no new people" policy or an expansion to other planets.

 

[cstu]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

I disagree with this completely. 15 years ago the internet was a gimmick. It took 10 minutes for a page to load and was used basically to replace an encyclopedia or a newspaper. Email was something fun and different to try. You bragged every time you received a message. Today, the very fabric of our society is run by the internet. Most office workers read and respond to over 50 emails a day minimum. The entire workplace has been changed. Small companies now have access to a global marketplace, something than was impossible less than 2 decades ago. I could go on and on, but the point is that this one invention has brought about more change in our day to day lives than anything since the automobile IMO and it's all happened in the last 15 years.

First off, I've said a few times that the internet is the most substantial new invention since the television. No one is disputing that. The proliferation of the internet is a 20th century development, however. I know for a fact I was communicating largely through e-mail, used web-integrated business software, and was playing MMO games prior to the year 2000. Years prior, in fact.

Yes, at 56k speeds. Cable internet was a massive breakthrough and allowed people to access high quality video easily for the first time. The big breakthrough is Google Fiber - 100x faster than cable and has huge implications for cloud computing.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.Examples:electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etcAutomobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc). This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

In 20 years, the world will be a vastly different place.

That's kind of what prompted the whole discussion. I thought back to 20 years ago and what was different, and aside from the internet and cell phones, I don't really see that much different. Sure, TVs have a better picture, music is stored digitally rather than physically, and cars use less (or no) gas, but aside from the fact that everyone is walking around wired into the 'net and staring at a smart phone, I didn't think of a whole lot that's NEW. The internet is really the last big thing, and that's close to 20 years old now. I'm wondering what's next. Aren't we all?

I disagree with this completely. 15 years ago the internet was a gimmick. It took 10 minutes for a page to load and was used basically to replace an encyclopedia or a newspaper. Email was something fun and different to try. You bragged every time you received a message. Today, the very fabric of our society is run by the internet. Most office workers read and respond to over 50 emails a day minimum. The entire workplace has been changed. Small companies now have access to a global marketplace, something than was impossible less than 2 decades ago. I could go on and on, but the point is that this one invention has brought about more change in our day to day lives than anything since the automobile IMO and it's all happened in the last 15 years.

First off, I've said a few times that the internet is the most substantial new invention since the television. No one is disputing that. The proliferation of the internet is a 20th century development, however. I know for a fact I was communicating largely through e-mail, used web-integrated business software, and was playing MMO games prior to the year 2000. Years prior, in fact.

Yes, at 56k speeds. Cable internet was a massive breakthrough and allowed people to access high quality video easily for the first time. The big breakthrough is Google Fiber - 100x faster than cable and has huge implications for cloud computing.

Wow. This looks like it would replace your cable and internet for $120/mo ? And you control the entire system from a Nexus 7? I want in, NOW.

 

[cstu]

when was 3D printing invented? I think the advances in 3D printing have a lot of potential to drive innovation

I saw a 3D printer in the mid 90s.

Yeah, I don't get why this is suddenly all the rage. It's kind of old news. I even know a colleague that bought one for his house for his kids to play with.

They've been around a long time but were expensive, slow, not that high quality and produced small pieces. The first high definition (600x540) 3D printer came out in 2005 and was $50k. The first sub-$10k 3D printer came out in 2009. Now for less than $4k you can buy a printer that builds relatively large pieces (10"x10"x10"). Prices are falling dramatically and I expect to see sub-$1k machines in a few years.

 

[(HULK)]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.Examples:electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etcAutomobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc). This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

The speed of light seems like an arbitrary speed limit. Sure, we haven't discovered anything faster than that yet, but I suspect eventually we will.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

when was 3D printing invented? I think the advances in 3D printing have a lot of potential to drive innovation

I saw a 3D printer in the mid 90s.

Yeah, I don't get why this is suddenly all the rage. It's kind of old news. I even know a colleague that bought one for his house for his kids to play with.

They've been around a long time but were expensive, slow, not that high quality and produced small pieces. The first high definition (600x540) 3D printer came out in 2005 and was $50k. The first sub-$10k 3D printer came out in 2009. Now for less than $4k you can buy a printer that builds relatively large pieces (10"x10"x10"). Prices are falling dramatically and I expect to see sub-$1k machines in a few years.

If the possible applications I've been reading about are realized in relatively short order too - I think you're right, this IS the next big thing.

 

[Sand]

Personally I believe the next big thing will be in energy. Forget solar cells and wind energy credits. I have a thread on this.

I firmly believe the energy landscape in 20 years will have a highly disruptive new entry. My bets are:

Thorium nuclear power - we have tons of this stuff and it can produce tens of thousands of years of energy

Low energy fusion - this is still around and there is still something there. Production units are being made now.

Geothermal - there is an almost unlimited amount of energy here to be tapped. The issue is drilling. There is great progress being made here with combined laser/drilling techniques that hold a lot of promise.

It is coming. I'm just wondering which one will hit first. All of these are world changing.

 

[roadkill1292]

Personally I believe the next big thing will be in energy. Forget solar cells and wind energy credits. I have a thread on this.

I firmly believe the energy landscape in 20 years will have a highly disruptive new entry. My bets are:

Thorium nuclear power - we have tons of this stuff and it can produce tens of thousands of years of energy

Low energy fusion - this is still around and there is still something there. Production units are being made now.

Geothermal - there is an almost unlimited amount of energy here to be tapped. The issue is drilling. There is great progress being made here with combined laser/drilling techniques that hold a lot of promise.

It is coming. I'm just wondering which one will hit first. All of these are world changing.

We need Rossi to get off his ### and get his machine into production.

 

[NewlyRetired]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.

Examples:

electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etc

Automobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.

Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.

My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc).

This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

The speed of light seems like an arbitrary speed limit. Sure, we haven't discovered anything faster than that yet, but I suspect eventually we will.

Arbitrary? There is nothing arbitrary about it at all. Einstein, more than 100 years ago, theorized on its unique properties in how we understand science and physics. This is not about discovering a new technology to get to FTL or eventually just waiting until we create an engine that can do it. It goes much deeper than that in terms of how we think about math and science as disciplines.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

when was 3D printing invented? I think the advances in 3D printing have a lot of potential to drive innovation

Yep.
Robotics are making giant leaps. Heck, we're even getting spray on fabrics. Exciting times we're living in.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I imagine that there will be a new type of propulsion for spacecraft invented sometime in this century. This will allow inexpensive, fast travel throughout the solar system and possibly beyond. We would also be able to travel to asteroids and mine them for natural resources.

Last year Nasa started working on a faster than light speed way of traveling. It would in theory take us to the stars in a matter of weeks. It doesn't defy Einstein.http://gizmodo.com/5942634/nasa-starts-development-of-real-life-star-trek-warp-drive

 

[(HULK)]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.

Examples:

electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etc

Automobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.

Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.

My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc).

This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

The speed of light seems like an arbitrary speed limit. Sure, we haven't discovered anything faster than that yet, but I suspect eventually we will.

Arbitrary? There is nothing arbitrary about it at all. Einstein, more than 100 years ago, theorized on its unique properties in how we understand science and physics. This is not about discovering a new technology to get to FTL or eventually just waiting until we create an engine that can do it. It goes much deeper than that in terms of how we think about math and science as disciplines.

It is arbitrary. Just because it is the fastest thing we've observed <> nothing is faster.Once upon a time it was thought that humans would explode if they went faster than the speed of sound.

 

[Ursa M]

The future will be awesome imo

Reading about SENS and de Grey is wild stuff. He's saying the first person to live to age 1,000 is probably alive today and may be 50-60 years old at present. That's a BOLD statement.If he is right, however, it begs a lot of other questions. Would anyone WANT to live 1,000 years? Maybe it could be done, but how would it work? Would you be 300 years old and look like a 20 year old does now? Or would you physically age at the same rate and just live 900 years as a wrinkled old bag? What would happen to the already dangerous population growth if many people lived that long?

Fascinating stuff.

Lol @ wrinkled old bag. I believe the goal is to have the body of someone in their mid-twenties, no illness or obesity or any problems, and an indefinitely long life span.

I personally would like to live forever. Life trumps death imo.

Well it is about quality of life. If I am the 50 year old who is going to live to be 1000 I don't want to put on much more wear and tear to this body. I also don't want to become a babbling infant somewhere down the road because the human brain isn't meant to be in use that long. But if I can have a decent quality of life then yeah. EG does raise some other serious questions as well. Pretty sure Social Security never envisioned 900+ years of paying a retiree. Do you end up having to work 960 years then you get to retire? What about housing and food? Longer life at this level is a paradigm shift of epic proportions and we aren't near ready to deal with it.

Either there is a problem with SS not being able to pay that length of time or there's a colossal unemployment problem. The fact is that if people are able to live much beyond 100 in large numbers, the entire current social fabric will have to be replaced.

 

[jamny]

I imagine that there will be a new type of propulsion for spacecraft invented sometime in this century. This will allow inexpensive, fast travel throughout the solar system and possibly beyond. We would also be able to travel to asteroids and mine them for natural resources.

Last year Nasa started working on a faster than light speed way of traveling. It would in theory take us to the stars in a matter of weeks. It doesn't defy Einstein.http://gizmodo.com/5942634/nasa-starts-development-of-real-life-star-trek-warp-drive

yeah, it's not really travelling faster than light, it's bending space and pulling distant locations toward you. The concept is there but how will they get the energy to do it. and while there's nothing wrong with it, de Grey is just a dreamer.

 

[Ilov80s]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.

Examples:

electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etc

Automobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.

Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.

My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc).

This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

The speed of light seems like an arbitrary speed limit. Sure, we haven't discovered anything faster than that yet, but I suspect eventually we will.

Arbitrary? There is nothing arbitrary about it at all. Einstein, more than 100 years ago, theorized on its unique properties in how we understand science and physics. This is not about discovering a new technology to get to FTL or eventually just waiting until we create an engine that can do it. It goes much deeper than that in terms of how we think about math and science as disciplines.

Einstein isn't the be all, end all for physics.

 

[NewlyRetired]

You can't judge inventions this quick. It takes 25-50 years to determine how important an invention is. The reason is that infrastructure has to be allowed time to develop to take advantage of the invention.

Examples:

electricity. It took 25+ years for it to be financially viable. Infrastructure had to be completely updated to move the electricity and to figure out what uses it had. So them you get things like electric ovens, non-gas lamps, etc

Automobiles. It took at least 10 years to automate their manufacturing process, and even more to update roads from dirt/mud/stone to asphalt and concrete. Then tires had to be updated, gas had to become widely available, parts had to come down in price.

Internet. The government had this in the early 70s, at least several clandestine agencies did. But servers had to be able to handle immensely more processing and storage power, devices needed to be redone to take advantage of the power, and people had to develop meaningful uses for it, with communication seeming to be the one connecting factor.

My guess is that energy, food and medical inventions are due to come soon. Need tends to drive inventions, and the need over the next 100 years is going to be to handle huge population increases. There is less disease as a % of population, less death from wars as a % of population, and people live a lot longer. So, handling that means new ideas to feed people, lower resource consumption, and keep new diseases from developing. And developing the infrastructure to roll these changes out to the world will take time (ie natural gas or electricity to vehicles, gene reproduction centers for food, etc).

This may sound a bit Star Trek like, but I think finding energy that can make space exploration really feasible (ie faster than light speed and beyond our solar system) will come eventually. It may be 200 years from now, but I think it's the next absolutely huge difference maker in the way we view the world. I guess my great, great, great grandkids will laugh that I had never been away from the Earth and that people believed in gods, etc. Just like we laugh about the ancients believing in Sun gods and never leaving the 15 miles around their homes

You think it may someday be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to beyond the speed of light?

The speed of light seems like an arbitrary speed limit. Sure, we haven't discovered anything faster than that yet, but I suspect eventually we will.

Arbitrary? There is nothing arbitrary about it at all. Einstein, more than 100 years ago, theorized on its unique properties in how we understand science and physics. This is not about discovering a new technology to get to FTL or eventually just waiting until we create an engine that can do it. It goes much deeper than that in terms of how we think about math and science as disciplines.

Einstein isn't the be all, end all for physics.

that was not what I said and or meant. What I meant is that it has been over a hundred years since people have been theorizing about the science and math behind light speed and over that hundred years it has shown to be anything but an arbitrary number.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I imagine that there will be a new type of propulsion for spacecraft invented sometime in this century. This will allow inexpensive, fast travel throughout the solar system and possibly beyond. We would also be able to travel to asteroids and mine them for natural resources.

Last year Nasa started working on a faster than light speed way of traveling. It would in theory take us to the stars in a matter of weeks. It doesn't defy Einstein.http://gizmodo.com/5942634/nasa-starts-development-of-real-life-star-trek-warp-drive

yeah, it's not really travelling faster than light, it's bending space and pulling distant locations toward you. The concept is there but how will they get the energy to do it. and while there's nothing wrong with it, de Grey is just a dreamer.

Dr. White is an optimist but if the energy requirements are as low as his team discovered, it's an exciting avenue. And yes, it's not technically traveling faster than light, but for all practical purposes it is.