What have we learned - 14 weeks later? (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

For me two items jump off the page.

1) Backup RBs are leading the way. Looking back at preseason rankings I'm not sure anyone called out MBIII (J.Jones), MJD(Taylor), or Henry Brown) would be leading their teams in TDs

2) RBBC Work in the NFL and make FF very difficult to predict - Look MJD/Taylor, Deuce/Bush, Barber/Jacobs, Barber/J.Jones, Addai/Rhodes, Dillon/Maroney. All of these RBBCs are difficult to figure out which RB is going to have a good week, assuming that you have both.

3) Stud TE did not work this year - Yeah Gates is playing well and Winslow was a SOD, but neither are playing lights out (although Gates is heating up).

4) Stud WR did not work this year - In my league (no ppr) Ocho Cinco is number 1, mainly due to his monster games. Smith was injured, but nobody is having the "2005 S.Smith year".

5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.

6) Looking back at the preseason top 10 RBs for my scoring system, the DD spit out:

1) LJ

2) LT

3) SA - injured

4) Barber - victim of GL theft

5) Jackson

6) Portis - injured

7) R.Brown - injured

8) R.Johnson

9) James - No OLine

10) Jordan - injured

Sometimes it's just interested to look back and see what we thought 4 months ago.

 

[Colin Dowling]

1. Taking a quarterback in the first two rounds is a mistake.

 

[Sidewinder16]

5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.

Who will be your #1 RB?Can I realisticly expect 20+ TDs from LT in '07? 15+? Seems that 15-20 TDs would be inline with a "normal" LT year. Pair that with 1800-2000 total yards and I'm not sure there are many other backs I'd expect to top that.

 

[J-Rock]

For me two items jump off the page.1) Backup RBs are leading the way. Looking back at preseason rankings I'm not sure anyone called out MBIII (J.Jones), MJD(Taylor), or Henry Brown) would be leading their teams in TDs2) RBBC Work in the NFL and make FF very difficult to predict - Look MJD/Taylor, Deuce/Bush, Barber/Jacobs, Barber/J.Jones, Addai/Rhodes, Dillon/Maroney. All of these RBBCs are difficult to figure out which RB is going to have a good week, assuming that you have both.3) Stud TE did not work this year - Yeah Gates is playing well and Winslow was a SOD, but neither are playing lights out (although Gates is heating up).4) Stud WR did not work this year - In my league (no ppr) Ocho Cinco is number 1, mainly due to his monster games. Smith was injured, but nobody is having the "2005 S.Smith year".5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.6) Looking back at the preseason top 10 RBs for my scoring system, the DD spit out: 1) LJ 2) LT 3) SA - injured 4) Barber - victim of GL theft 5) Jackson 6) Portis - injured 7) R.Brown - injured 8) R.Johnson 9) James - No OLine 10) Jordan - injuredSometimes it's just interested to look back and see what we thought 4 months ago.

So Too Much RBBC makes picking a solid RB tough, Having a stud TE doesn't work and having a stud WR doesn't work?What's the moral of the story here? Focus on QB, Kickers and D?

 

[KiddLattimer]

My best advice:

1. Draft WRs early, starting in round 2. (Get the best RB you can in round 1 of course). The days of drafting RBs 1-2 are pretty much over thanks to RBBC. Unless of course you can get 2 cant miss stud RBs.

2. Wait until round 6-8 to get a QB, depending on how many position players you need elsewhere.

3. Wait for kickers and defenses, no matter how many points Rackers, Gould, Wilkins scores the year before. Good K/Def can be had later on, and even on WW. You've heard it for years and years, because its TRUE.

4. Get a middle of the road TE. Gates is great, but a good TE doesnt win games, LJ Smith, Cooley types will do just fine.

5. Don't chase "flash in the pan WRs" - Nate Burleson in 2005, Chris Chambers in 2006 are perfect examples. Get as many guys who have 2-3 years of success as you can. Its ok to gamble with your WR3 spot, just not WR1 - No matter what the "experts" say.

6. Be PRO-Active, not RE-active. Looking back at the prior year's stats is foolish without taking changes into account. Take Santana Moss for example... new WRs coming in, new offensive coordinator, possibility of young QB taking over, and no pre-2005 history of success. Sounds like a risky pick eh?

7. Rookie RBs... good, Rookie WRs & QBs... not so much. RB is an easier position to learn, and it is much easier for a rookie to step in and have success. Most WRs/QBs take years to learn the system Marques Colston is of course the exception. Don't reach too early for any Rookie player *cough*ReggieBush*cough*.

8. Take notes at the end of this year for NEXT year's sleepers. Bernard Berrian started catching on late last season and if you were paying attention you got some nice production at a cheap price.

9. Dont be afraid to Double Up on positions before drafting K and Def. A WR/RB you wont use is more valuable as trade bait/insurance than a kicker/def. Just because you have all your roster spots filled doesn't mean you should fill the low value spots too early.

These are all lessons I learned from 2 years ago after I finished a frustrating 1-12. This year I finished this season 11-2 so the proof is in the results.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

What i learn in dynasty is sometimes it takes awhile for the younger players to develope although we want instant sucess from them. Also fo those youngster from this past draft looks like playas.

I gave up on Bush after trading for him. Thought Drew was to little to make it. Thought Norwood and Harrison was just scat rb's.

So for me, if i believed in them before the draft....i gotta be patience with them to let them develops.

 

[fsufan]

Drafting a solid QB is important. Do not use the draft a QB last strategy

 

[PsychoMan]

The one thing I "learned" I already knew (I know that doesn't make sense).

No matter how solid your draft is, how good you are at managing the waiver wire & WDIS questions, everything can come tumbling down in a playoff head to head matchup. I even looked ahead at the matchups and picked up players accordingly, but it still all fell apart just at the wrong time ...

 

[fsufan]

What's the moral of the story here? Focus on QB?

I changed my drafting strategy to drafting 2 RBs and a QB in the first 3 rounds. I think it is easier to find serviceable WRs late in the draft and on the WW

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Looking at that list of top-10 RBs, Rudi Johnson is even more undervalued because of his consistency. He never misses a game, and while he may not put up the mammoth #s LT or LJ does, he is, in my mind, the third "safest" RB pick.

To me, he is a lot like Manning. He is a safe pick.

 

[Banger]

Not that this is breaking news but something to keep in mind, the O-line is much more important to the success of RB than the RB's talent (generally). Talented RB's like SA, Jordan, Caddy, James had bad lines or changes to their lines that many ignored/minimized and it effected/killed their fantasy years. While players like Chester Taylor have had good years while not being as talented.

It's always difficult to anticipate breakout lines like SD this year but I'll pay particular attention to teams that draft/make significant FA signings to solidify their line. I targeted Chester for this reason and it worked out rather well.

 

[DoubleG]

The one thing I "learned" I already knew (I know that doesn't make sense).No matter how solid your draft is, how good you are at managing the waiver wire & WDIS questions, everything can come tumbling down in a playoff head to head matchup. I even looked ahead at the matchups and picked up players accordingly, but it still all fell apart just at the wrong time ...

Especially, if you end up facing Willie Parker, Vince Young and LJ with the likes of C. Fason, S. Moss, M. Colston, D. Branch and Peyton Manning

 

[menobrown]

1. Follow the coaching trail. For example, Gore and Kevin Jones were significantly improved this year IMO due in large part to the presence of Martz and Turner while Lamont Jordan's value was trashed due to Shell.

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

3. Try to avoid a RB near 30 or older coming off a career year. See Barber and Alexander this year and C-Mart last year.

4. Look to grab a guy coming off a bad year due to injury, a bad situation or both who the fantasy community has turned on. A guy like Andre Johnson this year who was disappointing last year due to his calf injury and overall team malaise and fell in most drafts....I"m thinking Randy Moss next year assuming he gets traded to a better environment but that might conflict with #2 above.

 

[beto]

When using Defense by committee, try to stay at least 2 weeks ahead of the game. Don't slack of near the end of the

season on it either. Play matchups as best you can.

I used this combination to what adds up to the 3rd ranked defense and won a lot of close games:

New England 1-3, 5

Dallas 4, 6

Giants 7-10 (everybody got hurt)

Dolpins 11-14

One huge mistake I made was during week 5 where I knew the Broncos were a great play. I tried to

get them off the waiver wire but my opponent got them and used them to beat me in a close game.

 

[Rounders]

5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.

Who will be your #1 RB?Can I realisticly expect 20+ TDs from LT in '07? 15+? Seems that 15-20 TDs would be inline with a "normal" LT year. Pair that with 1800-2000 total yards and I'm not sure there are many other backs I'd expect to top that.

You bring up a good point, but right now I have LJ #1 and LT #2. That may change many times in the offseason.

 

[Redhots GM]

1. It's a game...

2. There is luck involved....

3. It's a game....

4. When all else fails......

 

[Rounders]

For me two items jump off the page.1) Backup RBs are leading the way. Looking back at preseason rankings I'm not sure anyone called out MBIII (J.Jones), MJD(Taylor), or Henry Brown) would be leading their teams in TDs2) RBBC Work in the NFL and make FF very difficult to predict - Look MJD/Taylor, Deuce/Bush, Barber/Jacobs, Barber/J.Jones, Addai/Rhodes, Dillon/Maroney. All of these RBBCs are difficult to figure out which RB is going to have a good week, assuming that you have both.3) Stud TE did not work this year - Yeah Gates is playing well and Winslow was a SOD, but neither are playing lights out (although Gates is heating up).4) Stud WR did not work this year - In my league (no ppr) Ocho Cinco is number 1, mainly due to his monster games. Smith was injured, but nobody is having the "2005 S.Smith year".5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.6) Looking back at the preseason top 10 RBs for my scoring system, the DD spit out: 1) LJ 2) LT 3) SA - injured 4) Barber - victim of GL theft 5) Jackson 6) Portis - injured 7) R.Brown - injured 8) R.Johnson 9) James - No OLine 10) Jordan - injuredSometimes it's just interested to look back and see what we thought 4 months ago.

So Too Much RBBC makes picking a solid RB tough, Having a stud TE doesn't work and having a stud WR doesn't work?What's the moral of the story here? Focus on QB, Kickers and D?

Get lucky! Seriously though I was just pointing out observations that I thought people could benefit from.

 

[Banger]

5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.

Who will be your #1 RB?Can I realisticly expect 20+ TDs from LT in '07? 15+? Seems that 15-20 TDs would be inline with a "normal" LT year. Pair that with 1800-2000 total yards and I'm not sure there are many other backs I'd expect to top that.

I'm sorry but this logic makes no sense (Rounders). LT is in his prime, he's got one of the top young qb's in the league, his line is becoming one of the stronger units in the league and for the most part is signed long term, their defense is young and one of the top units in the league. If something significant changes then yes consider a downgrade but his TD production for his career has been 10, 15, 17, 18, 20, 29 (and counting). Yes, he probably won't break the record each next year but who would you put at #1 and on what basis? Can you expect 20+ td's from anyone? LT's perceived detractors prior to the season were 1) rookie qb and 2) weak line. Both have turned out to be substantial assets and I really see no liabilities going forward.

 

[Redhots GM]

On a more serious note....

The things you learn from this year may or may not apply next year. Draft a QB early or don't draft a QB early?? Stock up on RB's?? Fill your key positions on your roster before drafting backups??? Never take a PK or D before the last two rounds???

After so many years of playing and you've tried virtually every drafting technique you can think of you do what you feel is right and pray to the FF gods that your picks perform. If they don't you lose. It's that simple. Injuries, attitudes, injuries to support players, coaching changes (mid year), weather, etc.. all have an influence on the outcomes of these games. Choose the players that are influenced the least and perform at their best and you'll likely have a good year.

So, do your homework, draft as best as you can, use the waiver wire efficiently and don't give up. You never know when the next nobody will rise to the top of the heap and bring you a victory.

BTW... can you tell I got my ### kicked this year...

 

[delusional]

1. Any schmuck can win in FF.

2. Madden Curse is true.

3. Go with your gut

 

[zamboni]

4. Look to grab a guy coming off a bad year due to injury, a bad situation or both who the fantasy community has turned on. A guy like Andre Johnson this year who was disappointing last year due to his calf injury and overall team malaise and fell in most drafts....I"m thinking Randy Moss next year assuming he gets traded to a better environment but that might conflict with #2 above.

I totally agree, although I'm not sure Moss is a guy I'd target - he just doesn't seem to care no matter what team he's on.Guys I do think are possible bounce back candidates: Alexander (modest touches this year could be a good thing), Edge, Caddy, Jordan (if the Raiders don't draft an RB), Chambers, LJ Smith, among others.

 

[salmonstud]

There was nothing to learn that hasn't been learned in season's past. Do your homework for the draft (customize your rankings to fit your scoring system/starting roster requirements), stay up on info throughout the year, learn the tendencies of your opponents, and hopefully get lucky with drafting a diamond or two in the rough (Colston, Gore, etc.).

 

[moneyman]

Every year there is one player that is so far and away better that everyone and whoever has him makes the playoffs automatically. This year its LT, in recent years it has been Alexander, Manning, and Holmes. First strategy it to try and get that guy.

If I don't get that guy, I like the stud RB / stud TE theory since there are few breakouts in the top tier of those positions each year. My middle picks are safe and experienced WRs like Driver. I gamble on QBs late and pick up 3 or so. The QB part is really frustrating but this method has worked well for me. Def and K are constant ww changes until I hit upon a top one. I always seem to end up with a top 5 in each through the waiver wire by the middle of the season (Minny and Gould this year)

 

[paydrt]

1) RBBC Work in the NFL and make FF very difficult to predict - Look MJD/Taylor, Deuce/Bush, Barber/Jacobs, Barber/J.Jones, Addai/Rhodes, Dillon/Maroney. All of these RBBCs are difficult to figure out which RB is going to have a good week, assuming that you have both.MJD, Bush, Jacobs, Addai, Maroney. 4 of these guys are rookies and four them are playing behind established vets. At least three of these players will get a chance at a feature role. 5) LT is a fantasy god, but he will not be my #1 RB next year - one reason, he will not repeat this performance. Think Alexander 2005 or Manning 2004. Sure there are exceptions but I think that anyone who takes LT expecting 25+ TDs is living a dream in 2007.

Five RBs in recent years have had back to back 20+ TD seasons..E.Smith, M. Faulk, Alexander, Holmes, and Tomlinson. If Tomlinson goes over 20 next season that would be 3 consecutive. He's in his prime, the only way he doesnt make it 3 is if his touches are somehow limited.

 

[The Great Snook]

This may be heresy, but....

The Chicago Bears defense/special teams should be drafted before you start to worry about your WR2 or RB3. If I knew then what I know now, they would have never made it out of the 5th round in a twelve team draft.

 

[beto]

This may be heresy, but....The Chicago Bears defense/special teams should be drafted before you start to worry about your WR2 or RB3. If I knew then what I know now, they would have never made it out of the 5th round in a twelve team draft.

Not really heresy. They will be riskier in '07 though, hard to dominate for 3 years in a row. Helps to be in a division with Detroit and Green Bay.

 

[raor]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:

draft Brandon Jacobs early and often

period

 

[Banger]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:draft Brandon Jacobs early and oftenperiod

and if they sign or draft a rb?

 

[nygiants56]

Looking at that list of top-10 RBs, Rudi Johnson is even more undervalued because of his consistency. He never misses a game, and while he may not put up the mammoth #s LT or LJ does, he is, in my mind, the third "safest" RB pick.To me, he is a lot like Manning. He is a safe pick.

 

[raor]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:draft Brandon Jacobs early and oftenperiod

and if they sign or draft a rb?

Sign would be the biggest worry imo, I don't see them spending a first round pick on an RB (depends on who is available of course - but my guess is they'll likely go CB with their needs and a high teens pick). What is the likelyhood of a rookie drafted outside of the first round stealing significant carries (I know there are examples, but are there any where the incumbent was a low-mileage, young, beast of a running-back)? If they do sign someone, it depends on who they sign -- If I had to guess, a Chris Brown type would be the likely signee. So, in that case, his draft position would definately be affected. Then again, you can make the "what if they sign or draft x" argument for any position x on any team.

 

[Banger]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:

draft Brandon Jacobs early and often

period

and if they sign or draft a rb?

Sign would be the biggest worry imo, I don't see them spending a first round pick on an RB (depends on who is available of course - but my guess is they'll likely go CB with their needs and a high teens pick). What is the likelyhood of a rookie drafted outside of the first round stealing significant carries (I know there are examples, but are there any where the incumbent was a low-mileage, young, beast of a running-back)? If they do sign someone, it depends on who they sign -- If I had to guess, a Chris Brown type would be the likely signee. So, in that case, his draft position would definately be affected. Then again, you can make the "what if they sign or draft x" argument for any position x on any team.

Not sure that I agree with that since Jacobs appears to be the perfect "Bettis" type RB. Good short yardage/goal line back but I'm not sure how effective he'd be over the course of a full season taking such big shots. I don't think the Giants take a 1st round RB either but my point was that Jacobs role is anything but solid due to his "one dimensional" nature.

 

[zamboni]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:

draft Brandon Jacobs early and often

period

and if they sign or draft a rb?

Sign would be the biggest worry imo, I don't see them spending a first round pick on an RB (depends on who is available of course - but my guess is they'll likely go CB with their needs and a high teens pick). What is the likelyhood of a rookie drafted outside of the first round stealing significant carries (I know there are examples, but are there any where the incumbent was a low-mileage, young, beast of a running-back)? If they do sign someone, it depends on who they sign -- If I had to guess, a Chris Brown type would be the likely signee. So, in that case, his draft position would definately be affected. Then again, you can make the "what if they sign or draft x" argument for any position x on any team.

Not sure that I agree with that since Jacobs appears to be the perfect "Bettis" type RB. Good short yardage/goal line back but I'm not sure how effective he'd be over the course of a full season taking such big shots. I don't think the Giants take a 1st round RB either but my point was that Jacobs role is anything but solid due to his "one dimensional" nature.

Not to make this a Jacobs thread, as we'll probably debate it all off-season, but he's a lot less one-dimensional than many think. For a guy his size, he has surprising speed and shiftiness, and not bad hands. I do agree though that a not-so-low center of gravity could be a deterrent as a true feature back (notwithstanding other successful tall backs like Eddie George and Eric Dickerson).

 

[Banger]

I believe the most important thing to take away from this season is the following:

draft Brandon Jacobs early and often

period

and if they sign or draft a rb?

Sign would be the biggest worry imo, I don't see them spending a first round pick on an RB (depends on who is available of course - but my guess is they'll likely go CB with their needs and a high teens pick). What is the likelyhood of a rookie drafted outside of the first round stealing significant carries (I know there are examples, but are there any where the incumbent was a low-mileage, young, beast of a running-back)? If they do sign someone, it depends on who they sign -- If I had to guess, a Chris Brown type would be the likely signee. So, in that case, his draft position would definately be affected. Then again, you can make the "what if they sign or draft x" argument for any position x on any team.

Not sure that I agree with that since Jacobs appears to be the perfect "Bettis" type RB. Good short yardage/goal line back but I'm not sure how effective he'd be over the course of a full season taking such big shots. I don't think the Giants take a 1st round RB either but my point was that Jacobs role is anything but solid due to his "one dimensional" nature.

Not to make this a Jacobs thread, as we'll probably debate it all off-season, but he's a lot less one-dimensional than many think. For a guy his size, he has surprising speed and shiftiness, and not bad hands. I do agree though that a not-so-low center of gravity could be a deterrent as a true feature back (notwithstanding other successful tall backs like Eddie George and Eric Dickerson).

agreed, we'll couch it till the offseason....

 

[RRaptors]

My best advice:

1. Draft WRs early, starting in round 2. (Get the best RB you can in round 1 of course). The days of drafting RBs 1-2 are pretty much over thanks to RBBC. Unless of course you can get 2 cant miss stud RBs.

2. Wait until round 6-8 to get a QB, depending on how many position players you need elsewhere.

3. Wait for kickers and defenses, no matter how many points Rackers, Gould, Wilkins scores the year before. Good K/Def can be had later on, and even on WW. You've heard it for years and years, because its TRUE.

4. Get a middle of the road TE. Gates is great, but a good TE doesnt win games, LJ Smith, Cooley types will do just fine.

5. Don't chase "flash in the pan WRs" - Nate Burleson in 2005, Chris Chambers in 2006 are perfect examples. Get as many guys who have 2-3 years of success as you can. Its ok to gamble with your WR3 spot, just not WR1 - No matter what the "experts" say.

6. Be PRO-Active, not RE-active. Looking back at the prior year's stats is foolish without taking changes into account. Take Santana Moss for example... new WRs coming in, new offensive coordinator, possibility of young QB taking over, and no pre-2005 history of success. Sounds like a risky pick eh?

7. Rookie RBs... good, Rookie WRs & QBs... not so much. RB is an easier position to learn, and it is much easier for a rookie to step in and have success. Most WRs/QBs take years to learn the system Marques Colston is of course the exception. Don't reach too early for any Rookie player *cough*ReggieBush*cough*.

8. Take notes at the end of this year for NEXT year's sleepers. Bernard Berrian started catching on late last season and if you were paying attention you got some nice production at a cheap price.

9. Dont be afraid to Double Up on positions before drafting K and Def. A WR/RB you wont use is more valuable as trade bait/insurance than a kicker/def. Just because you have all your roster spots filled doesn't mean you should fill the low value spots too early.

These are all lessons I learned from 2 years ago after I finished a frustrating 1-12. This year I finished this season 11-2 so the proof is in the results.

Particularly number 5. We went to auction this year and violating this KILLED me!

 

[Mr. Mojo]

This is my 16th year and the must unpredictable one I have seen.

In addition to the comments above:

Know what players have the most value in relation to your league scoring.

Make sure you have depth.

Don't play head-to-head or don't complain about bad luck if you choose to go with H-T-H.

 

[painkiller]

4. When all else fails......

 

[Restricted]

Draft with your head, not your heart.

Wait until you fill a starting roster of QB, RBs, WRs and TE before taking "sleepers". You'll be thankful you did.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Don't take ANY of these "rules" as gospel until you can analyze whether they apply to your league's rules and scoring system. For example, in one of my leagues, QB and D scoring are more important than in most other leagues. So it makes sense to take QB and D earlier than you would in most other leagues.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

Not true. Except for the first couple of games when they were going with a true RBBC and alternating series, Tatum Bell has been a true feature back when he has been healthy, and has put up decent numbers (though a few more TDs would be nice). It really hasn't been any more volatile than most other RB situations in the league.

 

[menobrown]

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

Not true. Except for the first couple of games when they were going with a true RBBC and alternating series, Tatum Bell has been a true feature back when he has been healthy, and has put up decent numbers (though a few more TDs would be nice). It really hasn't been any more volatile than most other RB situations in the league.

In most games both Bells get 10+ carries each. I call that a RBBC.

 

[John Mamula]

1. Taking a quarterback in the first two rounds is a mistake.

I hope you're not just learning this now.

 

[GDogg]

Don't take ANY of these "rules" as gospel until you can analyze whether they apply to your league's rules and scoring system. For example, in one of my leagues, QB and D scoring are more important than in most other leagues. So it makes sense to take QB and D earlier than you would in most other leagues.

Why would this make a QB or D more important to draft?I could be wrong, but starting requirements are far more important to where you draft positions than is different scoring. Is making the scoring different in your league really going to make that #1 QB or D that much better than the worst starting QB/D (more valuable)?I could easily be missing something, though.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

Not true. Except for the first couple of games when they were going with a true RBBC and alternating series, Tatum Bell has been a true feature back when he has been healthy, and has put up decent numbers (though a few more TDs would be nice). It really hasn't been any more volatile than most other RB situations in the league.

In most games both Bells get 10+ carries each. I call that a RBBC.

Tatum Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 15 103 0 0 0 0

17-Sep 16 69 0 2 7 0

24-Sep 27 123 0 2 19 0

9-Oct 19 92 0 2 7 0

15-Oct 23 83 1 4 11 0

22-Oct 24 115 1 3 11 0

29-Oct 13 27 0 0 0 0

5-Nov DNP

12-Nov 14 37 0 1 -2 0

19-Nov DNP

23-Nov DNP

3-Dec 23 133 0 1 8 0

10-Dec 17 116 0 4 15 0

Mike Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 10 58 1 4 30 0

17-Sep 13 44 0 1 12 0

24-Sep 4 12 0 0 0 0

9-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0

15-Oct 1 2 0 0 0 0

22-Oct 10 25 0 0 0 0

29-Oct 15 136 2 1 7 0

5-Nov 17 28 0 5 40 0

12-Nov DNP

19-Nov 20 90 2 2 17 0

23-Nov 10 28 0 3 5 0

3-Dec 4 12 0 0 0 0

10-Dec 10 46 0 0 0 0

Games in bold are the ones where Tatum Bell was limited or did not play due to his toe injuries. The first two games were where the Bells were alternating series. In the six games where Tatum Bell was healthy, Mike Bell has gotten 10 carries (and only 10 carries) exactly twice. And in those games, Tatum bell had 24 and 17 carries, respectively. I think that shows that Tatum Bell is the clear #1 RB when healthy, and gives up no more carries to his backup than most other RBs not named Tomlinson or Johnson. In all but the first two games, Denver has used one primary back, and except for the Oct-29th game, it was quite clear which back was going to be the guy to get the ball. At the very least, it is not a RB situation that needs to be avoided, unless you don't like RB2s who put up good yardage totals and the occasional TD. I know that in my league, which is pretty TD heavy, Tatum Bell is the #28 RB, despite missing most of 5 games.Edit: sorry the formatting isn't the greatest.

 

[menobrown]

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

Not true. Except for the first couple of games when they were going with a true RBBC and alternating series, Tatum Bell has been a true feature back when he has been healthy, and has put up decent numbers (though a few more TDs would be nice). It really hasn't been any more volatile than most other RB situations in the league.

In most games both Bells get 10+ carries each. I call that a RBBC.

Tatum Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 15 103 0 0 0 0

17-Sep 16 69 0 2 7 0

24-Sep 27 123 0 2 19 0

9-Oct 19 92 0 2 7 0

15-Oct 23 83 1 4 11 0

22-Oct 24 115 1 3 11 0

29-Oct 13 27 0 0 0 0

5-Nov DNP

12-Nov 14 37 0 1 -2 0

19-Nov DNP

23-Nov DNP

3-Dec 23 133 0 1 8 0

10-Dec 17 116 0 4 15 0

Mike Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 10 58 1 4 30 0

17-Sep 13 44 0 1 12 0

24-Sep 4 12 0 0 0 0

9-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0

15-Oct 1 2 0 0 0 0

22-Oct 10 25 0 0 0 0

29-Oct 15 136 2 1 7 0

5-Nov 17 28 0 5 40 0

12-Nov DNP

19-Nov 20 90 2 2 17 0

23-Nov 10 28 0 3 5 0

3-Dec 4 12 0 0 0 0

10-Dec 10 46 0 0 0 0

Games in bold are the ones where Tatum Bell was limited or did not play due to his toe injuries. The first two games were where the Bells were alternating series. In the six games where Tatum Bell was healthy, Mike Bell has gotten 10 carries (and only 10 carries) exactly twice. And in those games, Tatum bell had 24 and 17 carries, respectively. I think that shows that Tatum Bell is the clear #1 RB when healthy, and gives up no more carries to his backup than most other RBs not named Tomlinson or Johnson. In all but the first two games, Denver has used one primary back, and except for the Oct-29th game, it was quite clear which back was going to be the guy to get the ball. At the very least, it is not a RB situation that needs to be avoided, unless you don't like RB2s who put up good yardage totals and the occasional TD. I know that in my league, which is pretty TD heavy, Tatum Bell is the #28 RB, despite missing most of 5 games.Edit: sorry the formatting isn't the greatest.

How do you know how bad Bells toe was hurting? I'm being serious. I know Bell was hurt but maybe he could have played more but Shanahan limited him in some of those games due to feeling comfortable with other options. What's worse is a lot of weeks owners of the Bells did not know who was going to get the carries and that's really the major problem with the Denver RB situation and that is knowing beforehand who is going to get teh carries.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

2. Avoid the Bronco RB and Patriot WR/TE situations.

Not true. Except for the first couple of games when they were going with a true RBBC and alternating series, Tatum Bell has been a true feature back when he has been healthy, and has put up decent numbers (though a few more TDs would be nice). It really hasn't been any more volatile than most other RB situations in the league.

In most games both Bells get 10+ carries each. I call that a RBBC.

Tatum Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 15 103 0 0 0 0

17-Sep 16 69 0 2 7 0

24-Sep 27 123 0 2 19 0

9-Oct 19 92 0 2 7 0

15-Oct 23 83 1 4 11 0

22-Oct 24 115 1 3 11 0

29-Oct 13 27 0 0 0 0

5-Nov DNP

12-Nov 14 37 0 1 -2 0

19-Nov DNP

23-Nov DNP

3-Dec 23 133 0 1 8 0

10-Dec 17 116 0 4 15 0

Mike Bell

GAMEDATE Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

10-Sep 10 58 1 4 30 0

17-Sep 13 44 0 1 12 0

24-Sep 4 12 0 0 0 0

9-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0

15-Oct 1 2 0 0 0 0

22-Oct 10 25 0 0 0 0

29-Oct 15 136 2 1 7 0

5-Nov 17 28 0 5 40 0

12-Nov DNP

19-Nov 20 90 2 2 17 0

23-Nov 10 28 0 3 5 0

3-Dec 4 12 0 0 0 0

10-Dec 10 46 0 0 0 0

Games in bold are the ones where Tatum Bell was limited or did not play due to his toe injuries. The first two games were where the Bells were alternating series. In the six games where Tatum Bell was healthy, Mike Bell has gotten 10 carries (and only 10 carries) exactly twice. And in those games, Tatum bell had 24 and 17 carries, respectively. I think that shows that Tatum Bell is the clear #1 RB when healthy, and gives up no more carries to his backup than most other RBs not named Tomlinson or Johnson. In all but the first two games, Denver has used one primary back, and except for the Oct-29th game, it was quite clear which back was going to be the guy to get the ball. At the very least, it is not a RB situation that needs to be avoided, unless you don't like RB2s who put up good yardage totals and the occasional TD. I know that in my league, which is pretty TD heavy, Tatum Bell is the #28 RB, despite missing most of 5 games.Edit: sorry the formatting isn't the greatest.

How do you know how bad Bells toe was hurting? I'm being serious. I know Bell was hurt but maybe he could have played more but Shanahan limited him in some of those games due to feeling comfortable with other options. What's worse is a lot of weeks owners of the Bells did not know who was going to get the carries and that's really the major problem with the Denver RB situation and that is knowing beforehand who is going to get teh carries.

The game on the 29th, Bell played the first half, and took himself out of the game because of the toe injury (it was the Sunday night game, and I remember watching it). Then he didn't play 3 of the next 4 games. The game he did play, he admitted later that he wasn't ready, and probably only played because Mike Bell was out. So, really there was one game during that stretch where there was any real uncertainty over who was going to get the majority of the carries. The game where he got hurt, that kind of thing can happen to any RB. Still, it really hasn't been that hard to figure out the Denver RB situation this year, and it certainly hasn't shown that the Denver RB situation is something that you should avoid altogether.

 

[Psychopav]

The one thing I "learned" I already knew (I know that doesn't make sense).No matter how solid your draft is, how good you are at managing the waiver wire & WDIS questions, everything can come tumbling down in a playoff head to head matchup. I even looked ahead at the matchups and picked up players accordingly, but it still all fell apart just at the wrong time ...

Especially, if you end up facing Willie Parker, Vince Young and LJ with the likes of C. Fason, S. Moss, M. Colston, D. Branch and Peyton Manning

Wow...that would suck.

 

[Wheelhouse]

 

[Road Warriors]

This may be heresy, but....The Chicago Bears defense/special teams should be drafted before you start to worry about your WR2 or RB3. If I knew then what I know now, they would have never made it out of the 5th round in a twelve team draft.

Got 'em in 10 this year, and it is the biggest advantage I have over the rest of the top teams. I had a solid draft & few injuries, but grabbing the top D ahead of the rest of the pack put me in the #1 seed, top overall scoring team in the league. The biggest lesson for me this year has been to never leave value on the board, even if it "contradicts" some of the drafting axioms like Kicker late, D late. Heap was on the board at 7, had to take him, even with other needs. CHI at 10, gotta take it. Draft value, stay healthy, and work the wire.

 

[videoguy505]

Da Bears were touted around here as a great DST due to their soft schedule, but I wouldn't say right now that they're a fifth-round pick next year until I see the '07 sked.

 

[Jayrok]

What I have learned the past two years is to only play in total points leagues!

Head to head leagues you usually go 11-2 and lose in the first round of the playoffs to some dolt who limped into the playoffs and got lucky with 50+ points from Drew Brees and another 50 from a backup RB.