What I have learned in week 1 - 2012 so far (1 Viewer)

[need2know]

TB will be competitive and D. Martin is going to have a big year (so will Mike Williams, VJ not so much)Ryan & Julio love is well warantedSomething smells in GB & NODet picks up where they left off, Stafford blows,,,,Stafford pulls it out......Giants are an 8-8 teamVick & Philly still suckGabbert much improvedStill not sure what Russell Wilson is......The reports of the death of the Jets have been greatly exageratedHouston & Miami are exactly who we thought they wereNE D is much improved (what else were u expecting me to say?)Hernandez will outscore Gronk (only concern is Hernandez propensity for nagging injuries)Wasn't high on Loyd going into year, a little higher nowRidley could be big, newsflash for those not in the know, Bolden is the handcuff.....

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

 

[pollardsvision]

So, to sum up this thread: Everything we saw yesterday was real.

 

[DoubleG]

So, to sum up this thread: Everything we saw yesterday was real.

and "Shark's NEVER overreact to week 1".I have a feeling that in 3 or 4 weeks a lot of these emphatic posters are going to look silly with mouthfulls of crow.

 

[Tanner9919]

Belichick, McDaniels, and the Patriots will return emphasis on the running game. Ridley's showing was just the example to set the course for the season.Brady may spread the ball around with Lloyd being a human highlight reel but Gronkowski will remain a beast when the end zone comes into play. Also NE will not abandon the playaction down by the goal line either.

Pats homer and Brady's presser was very telling. Really talked a lot about running game. Specifically said 25-30 throws is where they want to be, they don't want to be throwing 50 times. I listen to a lot of post game stuff and thought this was revealing.

shhh..don't tell Yudkin.he was talking about 5000/50-55Tds..he only needs some 4700+ yards and 53 Tds in 15 games to get there I think the Pats will return to the dominant running game ala Corey Dillon days, been saying that all summer long..they can't afford to let Brady drop back 600+ times...they've score to quickly in the past, and their defense couldn't hold water..now they look to have a solid defense and a studly running game.but, it's one week..let's see how things pan out over the next few weeks.other things of note..M Sanchez is WAY better than people give him credit for..it was Buffalo, but still, Sanchez looked sharp..CJ Spiller is good, but let's not forget he got his yards in garbage time when the team was down by a boatload of pts..Jets weren't trying to stop the run as much as the pass..Heath Miller looks like a stud TE for the Steelers.J. Dwyer will have a bigger role going forwardif you can stomach the Shananigans, Washington is going to have a strong running game.contrary to what others have said, Greg Olsen is going to be pedestrian at TE..

 

[solorca]

TB will be competitive and D. Martin is going to have a big year (so will Mike Williams, VJ not so much)Ryan & Julio love is well warantedSomething smells in GB & NODet picks up where they left off, Stafford blows,,,,Stafford pulls it out......Giants are an 8-8 teamVick & Philly still suckGabbert much improvedStill not sure what Russell Wilson is......The reports of the death of the Jets have been greatly exageratedHouston & Miami are exactly who we thought they wereNE D is much improved (what else were u expecting me to say?)Hernandez will outscore Gronk (only concern is Hernandez propensity for nagging injuries)Wasn't high on Loyd going into year, a little higher nowRidley could be big, newsflash for those not in the know, Bolden is the handcuff.....

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

Chris Gamble started shadowing VJax after he looked good in the early part of the game. After that point, he was shut down (like VJax always is when he plays against a good CB). With that said, I expect Jackson to match his better seasons in San Diego, because Freeman is committed to still targeting him, while Rivers would just look another way when Jackson had solid coverage against him.

 

[DoubleG]

J. Dwyer will have a bigger role going forward

Here's my issue with this thinking. He's probably not a "must start" against the Jets next week (The Jets D will be better against the run next week - it's pretty easy to put up decent rushing yards when your oppnent is up 21 and in the nickel/dime/prevent by half time) - especially if Redman is stealing some touches. Mendenhall is already practicing and may turn it into a 3 headed RBBC by week 3, then they have an early bye. By week 5 Mendenall should be ready to resume his role as starter, limiting Dwyer's role even more.Sorry, unless you see Dwyer suddenly beating out Mendenhall as the starter (despite being on the roster for the last 3 years and not event denting Mendy's touches) or Mendenhall's recovery taking a lot longer than most, I just don't see the strong value in Dwyer.

 

[solorca]

contrary to what others have said, Greg Olsen is going to be pedestrian at TE..

Not sure how you saw anything to suggest that in the game yesterday. He was targeted heavily, even while having to block a big since Stewart was out of the game (and Tolbert was being used some in the running game). He recorded 6 catches for 56 yards As we all know, touchdowns are largely unpredictable, and the only reason he wasn't a top 5-6 TE yesterday was because he happened to be one of the guys who didn't get one. Jimmy Graham - 6/85/1Aaron Hernandez - 6/59/1Gronk - 6/60/1Finley - 7/47/1Gonzalez - 5/53/1Those are the stats for the top 5 tight ends from yesterday in PPR scoring. Olsen's stats are right in line with all of them, with the only exception being the lack of a touchdown.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

New England may have drafted the two best defensive players in this years draft with Jones/Hightower.Wes Welkers days as a fantasy stud are over.Kenny Britt will have a HUGE season if the titans play calling stays that aggresive all season.Dwill is worthless.Benson is worthless.Brandon Marshall is going to dominate.Time to cash out on Forte if you have him. RGIII to Garcon is going to be a sweet hook-up all year.Rashad Jennings... we barely knew ya, kid.

huh? forte looked awesome

I would also like to hear why one should cash out on Forte.

Benson is a low end rb2 or flex player but went against the best rush defense in the leagueI wish you were in my league and had Welker so I could buy him for .25 cents on the dollarI didn't see a lot of the Bears game why is it time to trade Forte?Correct me if I am wrong but didn't all of Garcon's yards come on pretty much one play and all of them in the first half?

garcon got hurt on that play

And had 80% or targets at that point (guess but it sure seemed that way) catching most of them. Every other play seemed to be a quick we hit to Pierre.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Mad I didn't pull the trigger in any league on Ridley.Was right that NO would have a tough season after what happened in the offseason to them.Surprised at how well Dallas played.My pick of the Texans vs 49ers in the Sb at least looks realistic after week1.Stafford played horrible and went for 355, he's an automatic 4k if not 4.5kSitting ADP may cost me in one league, never bench your studs I guess.Brandon Marshall to Cutler looks very good, where I have I seen that before?

The death of NO is overblown. RgIII hype is not overblown

 

[Noah Davis]

Belichick, McDaniels, and the Patriots will return emphasis on the running game. Ridley's showing was just the example to set the course for the season.Brady may spread the ball around with Lloyd being a human highlight reel but Gronkowski will remain a beast when the end zone comes into play. Also NE will not abandon the playaction down by the goal line either.

Pretty sure you left out Hernandez there...Gronk & Hern had 13 targets and 12 receptions...Lloyd had 8 for 5...if you are Brady who you gonna throw to? The tandem that catches 92% of your tosses or the guy that catches 63%...The TE's in NE will be more consistent

 

[zamboni]

CJ Spiller is good, but let's not forget he got his yards in garbage time when the team was down by a boatload of pts..

Not singling you out, but I keep seeing this mentioned a lot. Spiller's long TD came midway through the 2nd when the Jets were up 21-0. It was very much still a game then. As for the other yards, I can't argue that many were in garbage time, but let's not forget what Spiller did down the stretch last year when Jackson was out. The kid's a player.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

CJ Spiller is good, but let's not forget he got his yards in garbage time when the team was down by a boatload of pts..

Not singling you out, but I keep seeing this mentioned a lot. Spiller's long TD came midway through the 2nd when the Jets were up 21-0. It was very much still a game then. As for the other yards, I can't argue that many were in garbage time, but let's not forget what Spiller did down the stretch last year when Jackson was out. The kid's a player.

SPillers a stud people, time to let it go, his 3rd carry went to the house.

 

[fightingillini]

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

Exactly. Saw the game, VJax had about 12 targets. a 32-yd reception was called back by a penalty, VJax dropped one quick slat that likely would have went for 25, he had 2 pass interference penalties against him. VJax could have easily had 100 yards when TB had a plan of force feeding Martin all game and he looked quite average to me.VJax will be a solid #2WR.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Much like every year panicking owners will overreact. Hit em hard and hit em fast for guys like welker, ingram,and Deangelo williams. U could almost trade kevin ogle tree for a 3 right now.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

After last season I thought that GB and NEP (others too) would try to get more of a running game so that they could control the ball; after this week I think NEP gets it, GB hasn't.

2011 49ers rush D: 1236 yards(#1 in NFL)2011 Titans rush D: 2053 yards(#24 in NFL)I think this might have something to do with that.

Shark move is to target studs who failed based on matchup.

 

[fatness]

Shanahan is a terrible head coach and is the only thing that will stop RG3 from being an elite fantasy QB.

Not sure what this is based on, but other than being a little too conservative on the series before the end of the half(resulting in the blocked punt) I absolutely loved the playcalling and schemes today from Shanny. They came out throwing a ton of short passes(RG was 6/6 on the first drive) and then hit them with the big play on the second series. It was such a great way to get RG3 some confidence early on and to surprise an opponent who didn't at all seem to be expecting an onslaught of short passes during the first series. After they got out to a lead, they came back with the running game and Morris had a solid day. I thought they were very well balanced and kept N.O. totally guessing all day long. I particularly loved late in the game on 2nd down when they were trying to run the clock out(think it was their 2nd to last possession) and they went play action....so many coaches go run/run/pass and end up going 3 and out in those situations.

I agree with this, and I've disliked Mike/Kyle's playcalling for most of the last 2 years. In the latter part of last season however, Kyle seemed to adjust from a rigid "my system" approach to an approach based on what they players on the field did best. This was during the rash of O-line injuries, and led to better offensive performances near the end of the year. This year it seems like Mike/Kyle are all in on calling what they players on the field do best, and changing up playcalling so the defense doesn't know what's coming. They did those things well yesterday, and ended up beating a team that's better than the Skins.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

A lot of names of guys many thought whose best games were behind them will continue to prove they are vastly better than their ADP this year:

Mark Sanchez

Peyton Manning

Frank Gore

Willis McGahee

Reggie Bush

Steve Smith

Reggie Wayne

Santana Holmes (and I'd wager the other Santana [Moss] too in the coming weeks)

Marques Colston

Tony Gonzalez

Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels

Heath Miller

Brent Celek

I'll give you Santana Moss, but I bet we don't hear a lot about Santana Holmes this season.

Solid easily reasoning. His team put up 48 and Sanchez had a 130± passer rating... drop his former wr1 who played sparingly with an Injury.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

C.J. Spiller will be a top 5 RB at the end of the year.

(Freddy Jax is hurt, and CJ tore up a very good Jets D)

After they fell behind by 20+ most of the way.

Exactly. This team looks like it might be playing from behind a lot. Nice to know when hat happens that your Rob still gets his, is in the game plan. Same with kevin smith. Now look at car/no. Those Rb owners would love to have Mr spiller right now.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

New England may have drafted the two best defensive players in this years draft with Jones/Hightower.Wes Welkers days as a fantasy stud are over.Kenny Britt will have a HUGE season if the titans play calling stays that aggresive all season.Dwill is worthless.Benson is worthless.Brandon Marshall is going to dominate.Time to cash out on Forte if you have him. RGIII to Garcon is going to be a sweet hook-up all year.Rashad Jennings... we barely knew ya, kid.

huh? forte looked awesome

I'm reading this as, "If you don't have Forte in full point PPR, sell." He looked amazing to me. The presence of Michael Bush in non-PPR leagues will drive Forte owners nuts all season. In non-PPR, I'd sell now and get out on a high note if you can get alot for him.

he scored a td and looked amazing

The Chicago Sun Times confirms Michael Bush will continue to be the Bears' goal-line back, "whether (Matt) Forte likes it or not."Bush also dipped into Forte's open-field carries in Sunday's Opening Day win over the Colts, rushing 12 times including his two goal-line scores. Forte finished with 19 touches. "It’s good to have a player like Michael, period, all over the field," coach Lovie Smith said. "That’s why we brought him in here." Expect this to be more of a committee backfield going forward.Related: Michael BushSource: Chicago Sun-Times

And yet he still put up stud RB1 #s

Shark play might be to start both chi rbz. Should be 30 pts a week.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

Exactly. Saw the game, VJax had about 12 targets. a 32-yd reception was called back by a penalty, VJax dropped one quick slat that likely would have went for 25, he had 2 pass interference penalties against him. VJax could have easily had 100 yards when TB had a plan of force feeding Martin all game and he looked quite average to me.VJax will be a solid #2WR.

12 targets a game likely = low end wr1 numbers

 

[fightingillini]

I try not to overanalyze Week 1, but here are my observations so far

The good:

DEN is a legit Superbowl contender. Manning looked really good and DEN D was solid.

SF is the clear favorite to get out of the NFC. That was a great all around performance.

Gore has something left in the tank.

Ridley is the real deal and will make NE even more scarier to defend. I still expect Brady to have a monster year but maybe not a 5000/40 season.

Lloyd looks to eat into Welker's production the most. Lloyd would have had a monster game if he wouldn't have dropped that easy TD pass.

Hernandez will have a great year and be the best value at TE given ADP.

Peterson......unbelievable to look that good after a later ACL injury.

Calvin Johnson has some company at the truly elite fantasy WRs........welcome Julio Jones.

Matt Ryan is worth the early pick. Pray that you don't play against Ryan (or Julio.....or Roddy) when ATL plays NO.

Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski pick up where they left off last year......terrorizing defenses. Both should be worth their draft slot.

And the bad:

Richardson will be a bust given ADP. Still a great keeper/dynasty prospect

Newton will bust if Stewart doesn't come back soon from his injury. CAR looked really bad yesterday.

Chris Johnson looked terrible and I would be very concerned.

NO is going to miss Payton. A lot. Their D is like Swiss cheese.

Turner is done.

 

[fightingillini]

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

Exactly. Saw the game, VJax had about 12 targets. a 32-yd reception was called back by a penalty, VJax dropped one quick slat that likely would have went for 25, he had 2 pass interference penalties against him. VJax could have easily had 100 yards when TB had a plan of force feeding Martin all game and he looked quite average to me.VJax will be a solid #2WR.

12 targets a game likely = low end wr1 numbers

That would depend on how Freeman progresses. Freeman looked OK....better than last year. VJax could be a low end WR1.

 

[FavreCo]

I expected a better Frank Gore if Moss had his head screwed on straight. Moss commands attention even with Alex Smith at QB. With him, Davis and now Crabtree looking good, the running lanes will be there for the first time in a long time.

 

[Hang 10]

Shanahan is a terrible head coach and is the only thing that will stop RG3 from being an elite fantasy QB. The coaching staff in New Orleans is far too conservative without Payton and Vitt. All Saints should be downgraded at least until Vitt returns, but probably for the reason of the season.

And you call yourself the Voice of Reason?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I try not to overanalyze Week 1, but here are my observations so farThe goodEN is a legit Superbowl contender. Manning looked really good and DEN D was solid.SF is the clear favorite to get out of the NFC. That was a great all around performance. Gore has something left in the tank.Ridley is the real deal and will make NE even more scarier to defend. I still expect Brady to have a monster year but maybe not a 5000/40 season.Lloyd looks to eat into Welker's production the most. Lloyd would have had a monster game if he wouldn't have dropped that easy TD pass.Hernandez will have a great year and be the best value at TE given ADP.Peterson......unbelievable to look that good after a later ACL injury.Calvin Johnson has some company at the truly elite fantasy WRs........welcome Julio Jones.Matt Ryan is worth the early pick. Pray that you don't play against Ryan (or Julio.....or Roddy) when ATL plays NO.Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski pick up where they left off last year......terrorizing defenses. Both should be worth their draft slot.And the bad:Richardson will be a bust given ADP. Still a great keeper/dynasty prospectNewton will bust if Stewart doesn't come back soon from his injury. CAR looked really bad yesterday. Chris Johnson looked terrible and I would be very concerned.NO is going to miss Payton. A lot. Their D is like Swiss cheese.Turner is done.

Why would Stewart have helped. So they could have another RB to not handoff to?

 

[Carver]

New England may have drafted the two best defensive players in this years draft with Jones/Hightower.Wes Welkers days as a fantasy stud are over.Kenny Britt will have a HUGE season if the titans play calling stays that aggresive all season.Dwill is worthless.Benson is worthless.Brandon Marshall is going to dominate.Time to cash out on Forte if you have him. RGIII to Garcon is going to be a sweet hook-up all year.Rashad Jennings... we barely knew ya, kid.

huh? forte looked awesome

I'm reading this as, "If you don't have Forte in full point PPR, sell." He looked amazing to me. The presence of Michael Bush in non-PPR leagues will drive Forte owners nuts all season. In non-PPR, I'd sell now and get out on a high note if you can get alot for him.

This.Non-ppr...Micheal Bush is gonna pound you in the brown eye all year. Move him while you can get top value back from a jumpy owner.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

A lot of names of guys many thought whose best games were behind them will continue to prove they are vastly better than their ADP this year:

Mark Sanchez

Peyton Manning

Frank Gore

Willis McGahee

Reggie Bush

Steve Smith

Reggie Wayne

Santana Holmes (and I'd wager the other Santana [Moss] too in the coming weeks)

Marques Colston

Tony Gonzalez

Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels

Heath Miller

Brent Celek

I'll give you Santana Moss, but I bet we don't hear a lot about Santana Holmes this season.

Interesting -- why? If anything I think it's a bigger stretch with Moss. He's a proven veteran, but he has many talented hands around him to compete for targets -- Garcon and Josh Morgan (both ahead of Moss on the depth chart), the up and coming Leonard Hankerson, and Fred Davis.Holmes has to compete with relative unknowns like Turner and Kerley as well as Stephen Hill -- the latter two had a significant day, but Holmes is still the #1 and a proven commodity. May not be flashy, but if Sanchez stays steady, Holmes is likely the biggest benefactor.

i'm pretty sure he was making fun of you, sir. there is no one by the name Santana Holmes in the NFL.

:whoosh: and and The egg on my face tastes delicious.

That said, I do believe we will see both Santonio Holmes and Santana Moss outproduce their ADP, with Holmes being the better value of the two.

And while we're on the subject of Santanas, I also think both Santana Carloses ALWAYS outperform their ADP, in both MLB and rock band drafts. The latter way more than the former.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

TB will be competitive and D. Martin is going to have a big year (so will Mike Williams, VJ not so much)Ryan & Julio love is well warantedSomething smells in GB & NODet picks up where they left off, Stafford blows,,,,Stafford pulls it out......Giants are an 8-8 teamVick still not good imhoGabbert much improvedStill not sure what Russell Wilson is......The reports of the death of the Jets have been greatly exageratedHouston & Miami are exactly who we thought they wereNE D is much improved (what else were u expecting me to say?)Hernandez will outscore Gronk (only concern is Hernandez propensity for nagging injuries)Wasn't high on Loyd going into year, a little higher nowRidley could be big, newsflash for those not in the know, Bolden is the handcuff.....

agree with most of this but I dont see anyway Mike Williams has a better year than VJAX. If you look at the game VJAX was targeted far more in a game where freeman passed little. hes the number one option by far

FWIW, I hope you will indulge me and allow me to qualify the Williams vs Jackson comment with "relative to where they were drafted". Don't really think Jackson has a big year, but I didn't really mean to say Williams will have a bigger year even though that is what I seemed to imply (long day )I also edited my original post with regard to Vick & the eagles which in hindsight was a bit too harsh.

 

[heropretend]

A lot of names of guys many thought whose best games were behind them will continue to prove they are vastly better than their ADP this year:

Mark Sanchez

Peyton Manning

Frank Gore

Willis McGahee

Reggie Bush

Steve Smith

Reggie Wayne

Santana Holmes (and I'd wager the other Santana [Moss] too in the coming weeks)

Marques Colston

Tony Gonzalez

Greg Olsen

Owen Daniels

Heath Miller

Brent Celek

I'll give you Santana Moss, but I bet we don't hear a lot about Santana Holmes this season.

Interesting -- why? If anything I think it's a bigger stretch with Moss. He's a proven veteran, but he has many talented hands around him to compete for targets -- Garcon and Josh Morgan (both ahead of Moss on the depth chart), the up and coming Leonard Hankerson, and Fred Davis.Holmes has to compete with relative unknowns like Turner and Kerley as well as Stephen Hill -- the latter two had a significant day, but Holmes is still the #1 and a proven commodity. May not be flashy, but if Sanchez stays steady, Holmes is likely the biggest benefactor.

i'm pretty sure he was making fun of you, sir. there is no one by the name Santana Holmes in the NFL.

:whoosh: and and The egg on my face tastes delicious.

That said, I do believe we will see both Santonio Holmes and Santana Moss outproduce their ADP, with Holmes being the better value of the two.

And while we're on the subject of Santanas, I also think both Santana Carloses ALWAYS outperform their ADP, in both MLB and rock band drafts. The latter way more than the former.

think i saw holmes nearly came down with a td grab. got both feet down but ball hit out of bounds before the second foot hit.

 

[donkshow]

I've learned that McFadden will be RB1 by season's end.

 

[elbowrm]

Ppg, yes. It's how many games - that's the question.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

So, to sum up this thread: Everything we saw yesterday was real.

 

[jurb26]

I've learned that McFadden will be RB1 by season's end.

Barring injury, yes. There is no player I'd rather have in fantasy than him right now. Especially in PPR leagues. The guy is going to dominate all season long.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The Long Snapper position is very under rated

 

[ppierce]

that dmac will not survive with 30 touches a game. although i'll take it.

 

[solorca]

I've learned that McFadden will be RB1 by season's end.

I've always assumed that, if he stays healthy. That's a huge caveat with him though.It's a weird day when you can get a top 5 RB (PPR) performance from a guy who is held to only 35 yards rushing and pretty much held in check the entire game. I don't think you can expect the number of receptions (or even close to it) to keep up...but as Moore returns and opponents are forced to pay more attention to the passing game, he'll start to even things out with more quality touches.As you said, I think he'll be RB1 IF he stays healthy.

 

[LuckyOne]

The Shark Pool will still let one member ruin a thread by responding when that member pushes a different subject. That's what I learned.

 

[donkshow]

I've learned that McFadden will be RB1 by season's end.

Barring injury, yes. There is no player I'd rather have in fantasy than him right now. Especially in PPR leagues. The guy is going to dominate all season long.

Yep. He won't get that number of receptions again, but his rushing yards will increase of course.Throw in a TD, and this guy is fantasy gold.