What is LJ's floor-assuming no injuries (1 Viewer)

[jurrassic]

I thought this would be an interesting topic to get people's opinion on. It appears as if LJ is a polarizing topic this year. Some people feel he will keep up the current pace and is justified as a top 3 pick. Other's are worried about the offense, the carries, and him being overvalued. There are some people who feel Addai is a safer pick.

Assuming Addai's ceiling is 1800-2000 total yards and 14 td's, what is LJ's floor?

I want to look at 3 scenarios: 25% drop in overall production, 40% drop in total production, and a reduction in carries and ypc.

1.) LJ total production drops 25% Last year he combined for 2199 yard (1789 rushing, 410 receiving), with a 25% drop that still gives him 1650 total yards and a reduction in td's from 19 to 14.

2.) LJ total production drops 40% 2199 combined yards down to 1320 total yards and a reduction in td's from 19 to 11

3.) If we want to base it on ypc and assume a drop in carries to 350 (66 less carries from last year), a ypc of 3.3 (1 whole yard less than his 4.3 ypc last year), and a total of 40 catches (41 catches last year) at a 8.0 average (10.0 last year), he would have 1150 yards rushing and 320 yards receiving, 1470 combined.

Recap of three scenarios above:

25% decrease in production: 1650 total yards 14 td's (249 total FP-would place him 4th last year as opposed to his 2nd place finish)

40% decrease in production: 1320 total yards 11 td's (198 total FP-would place him 9th last year)

1 yard loss in ypc, drop in carries to 350, drop in yards per catch by 2: 1470 combined yards 14 tds (231 total FP-would place him 7th last year)

So assuming a 40% drop in total production from LJ he would still end up with 1320 total yards and 11 td's. I would assume most people would agree that if LJ stays healthy a 40% reduction in production would about be his floor. Not bad, as it would still place him in the top 10 of last year's rb rankings (non-PPR) behind Jones Drew and ahead of Rudi Johnson.

 

[Jason Wood]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

I would think that depends on how the rest of his draft goes.

 

[jurrassic]

The point is to look at his floor. The assumption I am making is that the absolute worst LJ can do this year is to have a 40% total drop in production. If that worst case scenario happens he would still finish as a top 10 rb based on last year's ranking. Let me stress, THIS IS HIS FLOOR. Using this argument, LJ is a pretty safe pick. Worst case scenario, top ten. Best case, top 3.

Everyone is making projections on Addai, that are best case scenario (not likely to happen)

If you look at LJ's floor, he is still a top 10 back.

My point is the doom and gloom is overrated.

 

[FTRWRTR]

The point is to look at his floor. The assumption I am making is that the absolute worst LJ can do this year is to have a 40% total drop in production. If that worst case scenario happens he would still finish as a top 10 rb based on last year's ranking. Let me stress, THIS IS HIS FLOOR. Using this argument, LJ is a pretty safe pick. Worst case scenario, top ten. Best case, top 3.Everyone is making projections on Addai, that are best case scenario (not likely to happen)If you look at LJ's floor, he is still a top 10 back. My point is the doom and gloom is overrated.

I agree with you for the most part but the really important thing you're forgetting is his contract situation and the possibility that he holds out.

 

[David Yudkin]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

While this is obviously a true statement, it can apply to anyone taken at that spot. Are there better options that are a lock to rank in the Top 3 (or at the very least to do better than LJ)?

 

[lord_helmet]

The Chiefs should just pay him what he deserves and let him go to work, I don't worry much about his supporting cast he is an elite talent and will get his somehow. I don't worry much about the "Carry Curse" either, seems obvious to me he has plenty of thread left. If he's playing he's about as safe a pick as they come IMO.

 

[jurrassic]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

While this is obviously a true statement, it can apply to anyone taken at that spot. Are there better options that are a lock to rank in the Top 3 (or at the very least to do better than LJ)?

Exactly. All things being equal, I would much rather know that the player I take in the first, even at a 40% reduction from the previous year could still be a top 10 back, than assume a second year rb (Addai, for the sake of this example), who has never started full time will hit his ceiling of 1800 total yards and 15 td's.This exercise was done to justify why LJ is a top 3 pick, it is due to his high floor as opposed to a high ceiling.

 

[jurrassic]

Continuing to use Addai as an example, last year he rushed for 1081 yards and 325 yards receiving (1406 combined). He also scored 8 combined td's. If he sees a 40% INCREASE in production this year, he would end up with 1968 combined yards and 11 td's, which gives him 262 total FP's.

Based on last year's rankings that would place him 4th ahead of Gore and Parker.

So using this as an example.

LJ-40% decrease from last year-9th ranked rb using last year's rankings

Addai-40% increase from last year-4th ranked rb using last year's rankings

As Addai is going anywhere from 5-7 in most mock drafts, this is a leap of faith by some. As has been stated, this exercise clearly states how Addai is being picked at his ceiling. As the number 5 overall pick, people are assuming a 1900 yard, double digit season.

 

[Angus82]

I think that LJ's floor is probably Italian tile! Seriously, I think that worst case, assuming that he plays all 16 games, he will get 1200+ rushing yards and 12 TD's.

 

[David Yudkin]

One thing being overlooked here is that Herm Edwards is notorious for running the ball into the ground and in the Addai example the Colts are known for throwing at will when needed.

WE KNOW that the Chiefs will continue to run the ball extensively. If the Colts defense is so so again (or worse, which I suspect it will be), than the Colts IMO are more prone to passing more and running less.

 

[jurrassic]

One thing being overlooked here is that Herm Edwards is notorious for running the ball into the ground and in the Addai example the Colts are known for throwing at will when needed.WE KNOW that the Chiefs will continue to run the ball extensively. If the Colts defense is so so again (or worse, which I suspect it will be), than the Colts IMO are more prone to passing more and running less.

I am not overlooking Herm's love for pounding the ball in the running game. That is why I broke out the 350 carry option with a 3.3 ypc. The scenario would give him 1150 yards rushing, add in another 300 receiving and you are close to 1500 combined yards.

 

[nygiants56]

Continuing to use Addai as an example, last year he rushed for 1081 yards and 325 yards receiving (1406 combined). He also scored 8 combined td's. If he sees a 40% INCREASE in production this year, he would end up with 1968 combined yards and 11 td's, which gives him 262 total FP's.Based on last year's rankings that would place him 4th ahead of Gore and Parker. So using this as an example. LJ-40% decrease from last year-9th ranked rb using last year's rankingsAddai-40% increase from last year-4th ranked rb using last year's rankingsAs Addai is going anywhere from 5-7 in most mock drafts, this is a leap of faith by some. As has been stated, this exercise clearly states how Addai is being picked at his ceiling. As the number 5 overall pick, people are assuming a 1900 yard, double digit season.

Cmart was constantly at or near the top in carries under herm edwards. he consistently produced at a high level.LJ will , too..

 

[duaneok66]

One thing being overlooked here is that Herm Edwards is notorious for running the ball into the ground and in the Addai example the Colts are known for throwing at will when needed.

WE KNOW that the Chiefs will continue to run the ball extensively. If the Colts defense is so so again (or worse, which I suspect it will be), than the Colts IMO are more prone to passing more and running less.

are you comparing them to the Chiefs, or are you speaking in general terms??If its the former, then you are ot saying much . . .

 

[David Yudkin]

One thing being overlooked here is that Herm Edwards is notorious for running the ball into the ground and in the Addai example the Colts are known for throwing at will when needed.

WE KNOW that the Chiefs will continue to run the ball extensively. If the Colts defense is so so again (or worse, which I suspect it will be), than the Colts IMO are more prone to passing more and running less.

are you comparing them to the Chiefs, or are you speaking in general terms??If its the former, then you are ot saying much . . .

Not comparing the two teams. Comparing the Colts vs the rest of the league. If they get behind they have a tendancy to pass a lot. If the defense isn't very good I would suspect they will be passing a lot more than running. Looking at last year, the Colts ranked 6th in passing attempts but 18th in rushing attempts. By comparison, the Chiefs ranked 4th in rushing attempts and 27th in passing attempts.

 

[kensat30]

Herm Edwards is quite possibly the ideal coach for LJ.

Let's face it, Kansas City is no longer the "Vermeil/Saunders" version where the O-line and scheme created a fantasy bonanza for the RBs there. Just look at how much punishment "4,000 yard" Trent Green took there last season. Kansas City has to be considered an average situation for fantasy RB success at this point. Sure that RB is going to get a boatload of carries under Herm, but that may not be enough (see Jamal Lewis).

UNLESS the RB is hyper talented like LJ. In a Vermeil system he scores twice a game, in Herm's system he scores once a game. Herm can and will give LJ the ball 400 times again next season(assuming no hold out), and LJ is talented enough to put those touches to use. How many times did LJ score last season? 18? How many players would you project to have that number even one time in their entire career? That is a stud right there, plain and simple. And if I'm drafting top3 I want a STUD.

Is Addai a STUD? How can anyone know at this point. He looked pretty good to me in a part time role last year, but nothing that makes me go crazy over him. Maybe it's me, but I like to see him do something one time before a drop a top5 pick on the guy. Honestly, I think Maroney is in a better situation than Addai, and sometimes that guy lasts to the 2nd round. Bottomline, Peyton Manning is just as likely to throw to Harrison at the 3 yard line versus handing the ball off to Addai. Manning makes that call. And traditionally, Indy has not a good place to rack up a lot of TDs.

 

[jurrassic]

Where are all the LJ is a bust people?

 

[jurrassic]

Figured I would bump this for people. Considering all the threads lately. Still torn on who to take though.

 

[One]

Where are all the LJ is a bust people?

they're all BANNED probably.

:Itiswhatitis:

 

[duaneok66]

LJ's floor is 0 0 0 and 0 0 0 (assuming he sits out the whole season) . . .

 

[SSOG]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

It would put you in a much better position than half of the other people in the league. Historically, 50% or less of first-round RBs wind up finishing in the top-10. Besides, the discussion is of Johnson's floor, which by definition is a rather unlikely outcome.I agree that if he's on the field, LJ is an incredibly safe pick just because of the workload he's in line to receive (I think of Ricky Williams 2003- his per-play numbers were ATROCIOUS, but he still finished as RB9 by dint of the sheer volume of his workload). I think any analysis of LJ's floor that assumes he plays 16 games is not a fair analysis, though. The whole risk involving LJ isn't that he won't produce when he's on the field, it's that he won't be on the field in the first place (either due to injury or holdout). Why not have a discussion about Michael Vick's floor assuming he plays all 16 games, while we're at it?

 

[Routilla]

Assuming no injuries and no hold-out I say a floor is 1400 and 14TDs.

 

[switz]

Here's my take.

Prior to last season, KC RBs saw about 330-340 carries a season. Last season LJ sawa whopping 416. That's not going to happen again.

Additionally, his YPC declined to a pedestrian 4.3 average. Much of this had to do with OL problems, not able to run the scheme as well as they had the previous season.

Now he's holding out, and he really has all the leverage because he's their only weapon on offense.

He may come in before the seaosn starts, but how many games will it take for him to get back into routine? Will they decide to spell him more frequently with Bennett?

My projections are that he gets about 310 carries, at 4.2 YPC - that's still a solid 1302 yards. I think that's a REALISTIC projection. I don't see him putting up much higher numbers, but if his contract situation drags out, they could be worse.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Speaking of sheer volume of touches, James Wilder holds the record with 492 touches in a season. In 1984, he had 407 carries for 1544 yards (3.8ypc) and 85 catches for 685 yards. He totalled 2229 yards and 13 TD's. In that same season, Eric Dickerson set the all-time single season record with 2105 rushing yards. He had 379 carries (5.6ypc) and 21 catches for 139 yards. Dickerson totalled 2244 yards and 14 TD's. In a PPR format, Wilder would've outscored Dickerson by roughly 57 points. In a no-PPR league, Dickerson would've outscored Wilder by about 7 points.

Why am I bringing this up? To show just how much a huge volume of touches can make up for a low ypc. Also of note, the Rams (Dickerson) finished at 10-6, while the Bucs (Wilder) finished at 6-10. It doesn't matter how bad the Chiefs may be this year. If LJ plays, he will get tons of touches. I don't think anyone will dispute this.

Wilder's career ypc was 3.8. LJ's ypc last year was 4.3. He faced a stacked box all season. Everyone knew he was getting it, and he still managed 4.3. His career ypc is 4.7. To expect a drop to about 4.0 is fine, but I can't see him going any lower than that. To expect a drop in catches hasn't been mentioned, and probably has no reason to be mentioned. To expect his TD's to drop by a few is fine, but around 15 should be his floor. As I see it, his floor is around 325 carries for 1300 yards, 40 catches for 400 yards, and 15 total TD's.

 

[Tau837]

Here's my take.Prior to last season, KC RBs saw about 330-340 carries a season. Last season LJ sawa whopping 416. That's not going to happen again.Additionally, his YPC declined to a pedestrian 4.3 average. Much of this had to do with OL problems, not able to run the scheme as well as they had the previous season.Now he's holding out, and he really has all the leverage because he's their only weapon on offense.He may come in before the seaosn starts, but how many games will it take for him to get back into routine? Will they decide to spell him more frequently with Bennett?My projections are that he gets about 310 carries, at 4.2 YPC - that's still a solid 1302 yards. I think that's a REALISTIC projection. I don't see him putting up much higher numbers, but if his contract situation drags out, they could be worse.

You lost me at your first sentence. Perhaps you meant KC feature RBs saw that many carries, but I read your statement as a collective total. Here are the number of carries by KC RBs over the past few seasons:2004 - 450 (starting RBs had 354 carries)2005 - 468 (starting RBs had 380 carries)2006 - 471 (starting RB had 416 carries)The starting RBs have averaged 383 carries over the past 3 seasons. But in truth the only season that really matters is last year, since Herm wasn't there before that.I agree LJ won't see 416 again, but I'd be pretty surprised if he plays 16 games and doesn't get 350. As someone else already posted, the only question here IMO is how many games he plays.

 

[Tau837]

Taking him at 2 or 3 and getting RB10 production isn't going to put you in a good position to win your league.

It would put you in a much better position than half of the other people in the league. Historically, 50% or less of first-round RBs wind up finishing in the top-10. Besides, the discussion is of Johnson's floor, which by definition is a rather unlikely outcome.I agree that if he's on the field, LJ is an incredibly safe pick just because of the workload he's in line to receive (I think of Ricky Williams 2003- his per-play numbers were ATROCIOUS, but he still finished as RB9 by dint of the sheer volume of his workload). I think any analysis of LJ's floor that assumes he plays 16 games is not a fair analysis, though. The whole risk involving LJ isn't that he won't produce when he's on the field, it's that he won't be on the field in the first place (either due to injury or holdout). Why not have a discussion about Michael Vick's floor assuming he plays all 16 games, while we're at it?

Obviously that is apples and oranges. It is a virtual certainty that Vick won't see the field this year. IMO it is a virtual certainty that LJ will play most, if not all, of the season. While a Galloway-like holdout is possible, I think the more likely bad case is that he misses a game or two.

 

[SSOG]

I agree that if he's on the field, LJ is an incredibly safe pick just because of the workload he's in line to receive (I think of Ricky Williams 2003- his per-play numbers were ATROCIOUS, but he still finished as RB9 by dint of the sheer volume of his workload). I think any analysis of LJ's floor that assumes he plays 16 games is not a fair analysis, though. The whole risk involving LJ isn't that he won't produce when he's on the field, it's that he won't be on the field in the first place (either due to injury or holdout). Why not have a discussion about Michael Vick's floor assuming he plays all 16 games, while we're at it?

Obviously that is apples and oranges. It is a virtual certainty that Vick won't see the field this year. IMO it is a virtual certainty that LJ will play most, if not all, of the season. While a Galloway-like holdout is possible, I think the more likely bad case is that he misses a game or two.

I think injuries are a bigger risk than holdout, personally, but that wasn't really my point. My point was anytime you start an analysis by saying "let's completely ignore the following critical factors and then make an educated analysis", the result is never going to be an educated analysis. If you ignore Johnson's risk of holdout or injury, then he's one of the safest RBs in the entire draft. If you ignore Vick's risk of incarceration and lifetime suspension, then he's one of the safest QBs in the NFL. If you ignore the addition of Adrian Peterson, then Chester Taylor is primed for another workhorse season. If you ignore the fact that he's playing in Denver, Travis Henry is an RB3 at best.

 

[Tau837]

I agree that if he's on the field, LJ is an incredibly safe pick just because of the workload he's in line to receive (I think of Ricky Williams 2003- his per-play numbers were ATROCIOUS, but he still finished as RB9 by dint of the sheer volume of his workload). I think any analysis of LJ's floor that assumes he plays 16 games is not a fair analysis, though. The whole risk involving LJ isn't that he won't produce when he's on the field, it's that he won't be on the field in the first place (either due to injury or holdout). Why not have a discussion about Michael Vick's floor assuming he plays all 16 games, while we're at it?

Obviously that is apples and oranges. It is a virtual certainty that Vick won't see the field this year. IMO it is a virtual certainty that LJ will play most, if not all, of the season. While a Galloway-like holdout is possible, I think the more likely bad case is that he misses a game or two.

I think injuries are a bigger risk than holdout, personally, but that wasn't really my point. My point was anytime you start an analysis by saying "let's completely ignore the following critical factors and then make an educated analysis", the result is never going to be an educated analysis. If you ignore Johnson's risk of holdout or injury, then he's one of the safest RBs in the entire draft. If you ignore Vick's risk of incarceration and lifetime suspension, then he's one of the safest QBs in the NFL. If you ignore the addition of Adrian Peterson, then Chester Taylor is primed for another workhorse season. If you ignore the fact that he's playing in Denver, Travis Henry is an RB3 at best.

Well, first of all, this is basically all obvious. Secondly, if this was the point you were making, citing Vick's situation as you did is a poor way to make it. No offense, this just didn't measure up to many of your posts.

 

[Lash]

his floor is a bunch of round numbers that look just alike

 

[switz]

Here's my take.Prior to last season, KC RBs saw about 330-340 carries a season. Last season LJ sawa whopping 416. That's not going to happen again.Additionally, his YPC declined to a pedestrian 4.3 average. Much of this had to do with OL problems, not able to run the scheme as well as they had the previous season.Now he's holding out, and he really has all the leverage because he's their only weapon on offense.He may come in before the seaosn starts, but how many games will it take for him to get back into routine? Will they decide to spell him more frequently with Bennett?My projections are that he gets about 310 carries, at 4.2 YPC - that's still a solid 1302 yards. I think that's a REALISTIC projection. I don't see him putting up much higher numbers, but if his contract situation drags out, they could be worse.

You lost me at your first sentence. Perhaps you meant KC feature RBs saw that many carries, but I read your statement as a collective total. Here are the number of carries by KC RBs over the past few seasons:2004 - 450 (starting RBs had 354 carries)2005 - 468 (starting RBs had 380 carries)2006 - 471 (starting RB had 416 carries)The starting RBs have averaged 383 carries over the past 3 seasons. But in truth the only season that really matters is last year, since Herm wasn't there before that.I agree LJ won't see 416 again, but I'd be pretty surprised if he plays 16 games and doesn't get 350. As someone else already posted, the only question here IMO is how many games he plays.

Yes, I meant feature RB and was going by rcollection, back the past 5 years or so...I can't see LJ getting 400 carries. 350 woudl be hard to reach if he misses any games. With Holmes back, potentially, I can see them both carrying the ball.