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What is the value of a 2nd round dynasty rookie draft pick? (1 Viewer)

jp81976

Footballguy
OK so many of us treat 1st round dynasty rookie draft picks like gold (and rightfully so).

but I've noticed over the years in our league (which is entering it's 10th season) that while 1st rounders have generally been 50/50 to hit, 2nd rounders also have generated pretty high HIT numbers (I consider a hit being the player is startable in our league). I am not even saying the player has to be a star - i.e. Jay Cutler was a 2nd round pick. You can make the case that you can start him, even though he isn't a great starter.

I've generally traded my first round picks more than my 2nd round picks. Over the years I've taken guys in the first round and been disappointed - i.e. Brandon Jackson, Reggie Williams, James Hardy. Yet in the 2nd round I've gotten guys like Demarco Murray, Greg Jennings, Colin Kaepernick (whom I took over Cam Newton and was ridiculed. I feel good about that one now).

But anyway, My point being I like trading my first more than my 2nd, quite simply for the fact that you get more for it, and my secret reasoning is I have just as good a chance at unearthing a star player in the 2nd round.

And besides...wouldn't you rather trade the pick for a known talent and let them worry about the 50/50 chance their player will start?

curious to hear the shark pool thoughts. Right after week 1 is probably the biggest trade week...I call it overreaction week. I've made several deals after week one that have really changed the course of seasons for me...so I want to pounce quickly like a good shark would.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Depends on the league and how many players you can roster, and if there is a taxi squad.

If you have large rosters in a 12 team league, with a taxi squad where you can stash some guys, then 2nds have a LOT more value than FFPC type leagues where you can only roster 18 QB/RB/WR/TEs with a cut down to 14 each offseason.

 

jp81976

Footballguy
Well, our particular league is 26 man roster with rookie and a two man taxi squad (for 2nd year players who have not been called up yet)

And to Iluvbeer...I wouldn't have said it if I hadn't looked closely at it. I think a ten year sample is enough to see a pattern. It really is 50/50 in the first round and maybe 45/55 in the second.

So would you be more apt to trade the first, which you can get more for, than your second, when you really can get studs with your second?

I'd say, I'll trade the first. You're more apt to get the player you're targeting.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Well, our particular league is 26 man roster with rookie and a two man taxi squad (for 2nd year players who have not been called up yet)

And to Iluvbeer...I wouldn't have said it if I hadn't looked closely at it. I think a ten year sample is enough to see a pattern. It really is 50/50 in the first round and maybe 45/55 in the second.

So would you be more apt to trade the first, which you can get more for, than your second, when you really can get studs with your second?

I'd say, I'll trade the first. You're more apt to get the player you're targeting.
Also depends on the 1st. If you can trade pick 8 for a couple 2nds, sure. But a top 3 pick?? You can probably trade it for 3-4 2nds, but if you wanna go by history that is where the most likely spot of getting the Richardsons, Martins, AJ Greens, Julios, Calvins of the world would be.

But for a 26 man roster (assuming no roster cut downs), then 2nds are definitely valuable. I would consider trading a pick around 9 for something like picks 14 and 17 a lot of years.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
While you can certainly find valuable players worth starting for you in the 2nd round, even in the 3rd and 4th rounds of rookie drafts, the question is more can you afford to roster them? For how long are you willing to wait for those prospects to pan out?

How many times have you cut 2nd round players you drafted to pick up a free agent?

For a 26 (not sure if this is 10 or 12 teams?) roster spot league that is 260-312 total players on teams at any given time. This means there will be free agents at near the same level of quality as those later round rookie picks in my opinion.

The 1st round picks is where you can get real difference makers. Maybe obvious stars slip some times, Maurice Jones Drew for example could have, or perhaps a few other players who were over looked. But for the most part the best rookie players should be well known with cursory research of the draft. Even just the post draft.

I do think the 2nd round may offer some safer picks. Such as your QB examples. These are the less flashy players that got passed in the 1st round, but are still solid, if unspectacular players. These players may be less boom bust than some of the reaches for upside in the 1st round.

You are right also that the perceived value of a 1st round pick is much higher than a 2nd round pick. So selling a possibly over valued asset for a known commodity in a quality starting player makes a lot of sense I think, you are more likely to be able to get a difference maker by offering a 1st than you could offering a 2nd round pick.

Much of this is also knowing your league. It is entirely possible you could make trades where you throw your 1st and 2nd round picks at teams for star players and find a trade partner. Then use later round picks that no one much values to fill out the rest of your roster, or just add free agents.

When the league size gets deeper, for example 500 rostered players or more, especially if it is 14-16 teams with deeper rosters, that is where the 2nd round rookie picks have more value. Because there are less quality free agents available to just pick up. You start needing to draft well and to draft deeper to access those players who could start for you.

 

jp81976

Footballguy
Real good point.

It's funny, I have never drafted before the 7th pick in our draft so I've never had a crack at the Peterson or the Calvin Johnson or even Eddie lacy or richardsons...so my perception of a first rounder is a flier at the end of the round. I guess I should have prefaced back half of round 1 versus back half of round 2.

Ad not trying to brag honestly didnt even consider the fact that I've never had a shot at the studs...even though going back I can't believe how many of the "studs" have kind of flamed out anyway.

 

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