What is your recipe for success in your startup dynasty leagues? (1 Viewer)

[grantsa4]

Do you have a particular strategy that you like to follow for your dynasty startups? Do you go best player available? Do you always try grab a rb in round 1? Do you try make sure everyone is younger than 28?

What is your recipe for success and has it proven to be successful in the past?

 

[Sabertooth]

Do you have a particular strategy that you like to follow for your dynasty startups? Do you go best player available? Do you always try grab a rb in round 1? Do you try make sure everyone is younger than 28?What is your recipe for success and has it proven to be successful in the past?

colin had a great article on the Year two strategy. Basically load up for next season. Don't worry about this season so much as build for long term success. Guys like Brady and Gore are passed over for guys like Newton or Stewart for example.

 

[grantsa4]

Any idea where I can find that article? 2011 or 2010 articles perhaps?

 

[Sabertooth]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

 

[MAC_32]

*Your first 2 picks must still be expected starters in 3 years, preferably first 3 picks.

*Make sure you have two top 15 QB's and should still be top 15 QB's in 5 years, preferably wait until after round 2 or 3 to start taking them but it's not a necessity.

*Graham and Gronk are great, but TE is deep. Unless either of them slip I'm waiting and taking lesser options. One that can start now (Olsen, Owen, Gresham, etc.) and a few that could be huge later (Rudolph, J Thomas, Casey, etc.).

*For every top 3 RB you take that has less than 3 years of expected useful life left you need to sacrifice short term depth for potential long term starters. In other words, don't shy away from an aging back but if you do then target Ben Tate, Jacquizz Rodgers, Taiwan Jones types for your depth instead of Felix Jones, Green Ellis, and Donald Brown types.

*When taking fliers focus on WR, you're most likely to strike gold there than other positions. Don't have more than one bench WR before getting to the later rounds so you have the room to hoard.

*Building on that idea, you want 2 reliable starting WR's but your 3 and 4 don't have to be. Take some chances.

 

[grantsa4]

Thanks guys. Has anyone done one recently where they think they just dominated the draft, although I know every draft is different I am interested to see the path that others have taken with good success.

Ah, found the thread.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

You don't dominate a draft in a competitive league. To be a dominant team early, you need to hit on some late picks. Take high upside players in later rounds, try to build your core with players that have longevity. A strong young WR will be paying dividends for a decade; Maurice Jones-Drew will be helping you for only a short while.

 

[domvin]

Did a startup, in a 16 teamer, and by no means did I dominate this draft, but the strategy was similar to Colin's article if you will. This was in February, 2011. So, it was before that article was published, and I honestly placed winning in the first year second, to just building a solid young team.

My rules were simple-

Try to Stay under 25, and focus on wrs early since they have such a long shelf life-

I moved back and moved around heavily in the first 3-4 rounds also.

I ended up going 2-9, and have the 1.1. So, yep, I took my lumps, but I have the 1.1 this year, and the 1.11, and 1.16 to play with in this upcoming draft. Get to add Richardson, so, I'd say my future looks pretty decent.

Palmer, C

Sanchez, M

Goodson, M

Hunter, K

Jones, F

Jones, Taiwan

Powell, B

Smith, Kevin

Spiller, C

Vereen, S

Bryant, D

Harvin, P

Jones, Julio

Maclin, J

Salas, G

Sanders, E

Celek, B

Dickson, E

Saunders, W

Williams, D

Henery, A

Texans, H

 

[Multiple Scores]

Either play with -

A. A group of guppies

B. A group of Shark Pool Group thinkers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

 

[Multiple Scores]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

Who said all that, that is lunacy right there!

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Draft talented players and be patient. Stay away from flavor of the moment guys who are likely to fade as soon as their situations change.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

Who said all that, that is lunacy right there!

the "2 Year Plan" article that was linked.Supposedly those guys should win you your league this year if you drafted them in 2011 start up drafts under the Win in Year 2 Plan.

 

[squistion]

Disclaimer. My track record (like anyone else's) is based on a small sample size and means nothing unless you know the calibre of the other owners. Also, I could have been just very, very lucky. So, take what I have to say with a grain of salt.

Anyway, I have been successful in startup dynasty leagues, since 2003 I have been in 6 startup leagues (out of 12 dynasty leagues overall). Of those 6 startups, in 4 I have won championships and the 5th I was the Super Bowl runner-up one year. Also, In 2 of those 6 leagues I won the championship the 1st year and was a Super Bowl runner-up in a 3rd.

I have a two-fold approach. I want to have a team that is good enough to make the playoffs the 1st year but also has a building block of young players that will peak ideally in the 2nd year, no later than the 3rd. So my teams are a mix of established players and up-and-comers, looking at a maximum 3 year time frame window.

Why is it important to be playoff competitive in the first year? Because, from my Dynasty 101 class:

The only year you can win is the one you are currently competing in.

Sorry, kids, but while always having next year's champion looks good on paper - it gives you nothing you can ever take to the bank. Having a pretty looking team for the years 2013, 2014 or 2015 is very nice but you can't win those years now because you are not competing in them - the only winning ticket you got a shot to cash is for 2012.

In one of my leagues there is someone well known on this forum (who will remain nameless). His posts always have a condescending tone - as if he is speaking from the perspective of a dynasty expert. He repeatedly lectures everyone that dynasty leagues "are about future value, not present value," and he is always looking several years in the future - never at the current year. That seems a fine strategy, but since 2003 in the 12 team league we are both in, he has never once made the playoffs (which is hard to do when 50% of the league qualifies for a playoff berth).

Unfortunately, the problem with always living in the future is that when it finally arrives it usually doesn't play out the way you anticipated.

And by the way, my startup teams are not packed with creaky, over-the-hill veterans. For instance the oldest players in my 2010 startup (which I won a 1st year championship) were my QBs, Philip Rivers and Big Ben, who were 29 and 28 respectively, at the time

 

[relic]

Trade out of the first round. Most guys will overpay for high picks and you can use this to accumulate picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds to build a very solid core.

 

[Geekjock]

Agreed with trading down where you can to either get more rookie picks or veteran players.

I usually use, and succeed with the mantra of building a team that will succeed today is the best foundation for building a team that will succeed in future years. Concentrating on future success will make the road to actual success much more difficult.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Draft talented players and be patient. Stay away from flavor of the moment guys who are likely to fade as soon as their situations change.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[Steed]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

I'm no longer a subscriber but tell me he at least hit on a few guys and that wasn't his complete list.

 

[nickdib]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

I'm no longer a subscriber but tell me he at least hit on a few guys and that wasn't his complete list.

Nope that was the whole list

 

[thriftyrocker]

You don't have to be a subscriber in the offseason.

 

[Steed]

Ouch on that article, glad I never read it.

Here's a pretty long thread and a thorough discussion that even had a league born from it:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=589238&hl=steed%20dynasty&st=0

 

[barker132000]

My focus is a little different. Think about this...how many times in a rookie draft do u see a TE that makes you salivate with fantasy aspirations....not often. If you can get in position to grab gronk or graham...do it. They produce wr#1 numbers...you take one of them and add a cam newton anda top 10 wr...your starting lineup is off to a roaring start. I just went against the grain in a startup...took calvin johnson rd 1....graham rd 2 and cam was there rd 3. Ignore rbs in year 1.....target reception guys at rb for your first yr...then build your backs through rookie drafts. If you get a great young qb and recieving corps right out of the gate..you can focus every rookie pick for a few years on rbs in all rds...and u will strike...then be dominant.

 

[icehacka]

My focus is a little different. Think about this...how many times in a rookie draft do u see a TE that makes you salivate with fantasy aspirations....not often. If you can get in position to grab gronk or graham...do it. They produce wr#1 numbers...you take one of them and add a cam newton anda top 10 wr...your starting lineup is off to a roaring start. I just went against the grain in a startup...took calvin johnson rd 1....graham rd 2 and cam was there rd 3. Ignore rbs in year 1.....target reception guys at rb for your first yr...then build your backs through rookie drafts. If you get a great young qb and recieving corps right out of the gate..you can focus every rookie pick for a few years on rbs in all rds...and u will strike...then be dominant.

WTF? Your strategy is something to think about, but getting someone like Cam in the 3rd not the norm.As far as the draft strategy to use, it also depends on what the other owners are going with. If 10/12 owners are going WR heavy, its probably best to try a different strategy and take advantage of BPA.

 

[barker132000]

I had last pick rd 2...1st pick rd 3...so cam went 25th

 

[barker132000]

Everyone focused on getting their rb first..then of course the top 5 wrs went...rodgers brees brady stafford all went too....i got luuuucky

 

[squistion]

As far as the draft strategy to use, it also depends on what the other owners are going with. If 10/12 owners are going WR heavy, its probably best to try a different strategy and take advantage of BPA.

Good point, there are two strategies involved in startups: 1) overall long term strategy 2) draft specific round-by-round strategy which can change depending on how the other owners draft.Prior to most drafts, one usually has at least a few days notice of what their draft position will be. With that in mind I do my own mock draft for the first 5-6 rounds (can't project out more than that).

Let's say I draw 1.08. I figure what players will probably be available at that juncture at each position at that slot, then mock how I would draft in subsequent rounds. Then I look at how happy I would be with the roster after 5 rounds with the different scenarios involving taking either a RB, QB, WR, TE in those rounds. It is very helpful for me in that I get a pretty good feel of what direction I want to go in.

However, to get back to your original point - sometimes the draft goes in an entirely differnt direction than anticipated and you have to improvise. As Napolean said, The first casualty of war is the battle plan. Sometimes your predraft strategy is worthless after the first round and you are making it up as you go along from that point on.

I will add that even though I have mocked out the early rounds, I will not be afraid to deviate from that if a player falls unexpectedly to me. For instance, I might have planned to take a QB in the 5th round (like I did Romo in a startup last year) however if Cam Newton was available in the 3rd (as a previous posted mentioned) then I wouldn't hesitate to change direction and grab him. One must be flexible if necessary.

 

[Prussian]

I was one of seven new teams in a Dynasty league last year. Supplmental draft including the teams' picks and players.

I went YOUNG and loaded up on picks as a goal. "Playing for year two". Week 1 last year was great, then injuries began to decimate my team. (Charles, Britt, Thomas, Thomas, ...) With the season fading ... I traded away Tony Gonzalez for Winslow and 1.08.

Now sitting with this roster and picks 1.01, 1.08, 2.01, etc. heading in to the draft with lots of trade banter in the off-season. RB handcuffs and picks mostly ... I also currently have one roster spot open.

My "year two" philosophy is looking pretty good. I can shore up the RBs in the draft (and add another WR or developmental QB) without making any trades.

probable starters bolded, PPR with a flex RB\WR\TE ...

Bradford, Sam STL QB

Dalton, Andy CIN QB

Kolb, Kevin ARI QB

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB - pending Richardson

McCluster, Dexter KCC RB

McKnight, Joe NYJ RB

Thomas, Daniel MIA RB

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

Alexander, Danario STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Britt, Kenny TEN WR

Bryant, Dez DAL WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR #3?

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR

Meachem, Robert SD WR - #3?

Moore, Denarius OAK WR - #3?

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR #3?

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE

Winslow, Kellen TBB TE

Crosby, Mason GBP PK

Scobee, Josh JAC PK

Chargers, San Diego SDC Def

Lions, Detroit DET Def

So leaguemates reading this ... I have no qualms about sharing. It shouldn't take rocket-science to read in to the holes and value here.

 

[Crazysight]

My opinion, and that's all anybody has here, is that the QB position is loaded up with future stars right now, and the existing ones (Manning, Brady, Brees, etc) are aging and soon to fade. I'd be looking to wait on the QB position some and stock up on the true young guns in the league who will be undervalued right now and will fall in the draft, such as Locker, Luck, RGIII, Kaepernick will probably be very good whenever he gets his chance, and even Terrelle Pryor should be a good fantasy performer once he's given a chance to let his awesome physical abilities translate to points on the field. Cam Newton is the obvious one to mention, although he will likely be overdrafted. If I had a choice I'd wait to take future QB stars like the ones I just mentioned, and take young runningbacks early. DeMarco Murray is probably about to see his stock pop in Dallas' productive offense, he'd be a good bet to take early. There are several good looking backs coming out of this year's rookie draft as well, David Wilson is currently only 20 years old (will be 21 in June)!

Stay away from guys whose productivity is largely tied to that of the older elite QBs too, such as Gronk and Jimmy Graham. A better TE for the long haul would likely be someone like Jared Cook, or perhaps Jermichael Finley. Take note of what franchises appear to be rebuilding, and grab young players whose value may benefit. Fred Davis and David Gettis would be good examples. Gettis is the type who could be a real sleeper before long if Cam continues to dominate, and he's worth a late round look.

 

[lbouchard]

My opinion, and that's all anybody has here, is that the QB position is loaded up with future stars right now, and the existing ones (Manning, Brady, Brees, etc) are aging and soon to fade. I'd be looking to wait on the QB position some and stock up on the true young guns in the league who will be undervalued right now, such as Locker, Luck, RGIII, Kaepernick will probably be very good whenever he gets his chance, and even Terrelle Pryor should be a good fantasy performer once he's given a chance to let his awesome physical abilities translate to points on the field. Cam Newton is the obvious one to mention, although he will likely be overdrafted. If I had a choice I'd wait to take future QB stars like the ones I just mentioned, and take young runningbacks early. DeMarco Murray is probably about to see his stock pop in Dallas' productive offense, he'd be a good bet to take early. There are several good looking backs coming out of this year's rookie draft as well, David Wilson is currently only 20 years old (will be 21 in June)! Stay away from guys whose productivity is largely tied to that of the older elite QBs too, such as Gronk and Jimmy Graham. A better TE for the long haul would likely be someone like Jared Cook, or perhaps Jermichael Finley. Take note of what franchises appear to be rebuilding, and grab young players whose value may benefit. Fred Davis and David Gettis would be good examples. Gettis is the type who could be a real sleeper before long if Cam continues to dominate, and he's worth a late round look.

While I agree with most of what you said, I don't really agree about Gronk and Graham. Brady and Brees each have 3 elite seasons left in them, and that's about as far as you can look out.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11dowling_year2.php

Just think how pretty you'd be sitting if you followed his advice in your 2011 start up draft and targeted these guys:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has had an up and down career to date and there is a wide assumption that the Bills will be bad enough to draft Andrew Luck next year. I don't but it. The Bills are likely to be better then a number of teams this season and gave Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence this offseason by not drafting a quarterback in the 2010 draft. He threw for 23 touchdowns and 3000 yards in only 13 games last season and has even more weapons at his disposal this season. While Fitzpatrick is not a glamorous choice at quarterback, he certainly has shown the ability to be a productive NFL starter.

Admittedly both of these players lack a body of work in the NFL. But the running back position is so crucial that I thought they were worth pointing out for the Year 2 strategy.

• Montario Hardesty - Peyton Hillis had a great year in 2010 and will be given the chance to do it again in 2011. But the Browns didn't address a "bellcow" backup for him in either the draft of free agency. I think that they believe Hardesty could be a big time player (if he can stay healthy). Hardesty can be had in the latest rounds of dynasty drafts and offers HUGE upside if his inarguable skills can supplant Hillis.

• Michael Leshoure - Leshoure being out for the season is a boon for dynasty owners employing the Year 2 strategy. Coming out of the gate he was expected to complement Jahvid Best as a tough, inside runner. His value now has fallen greatly. Considering that Achilles injuries are rarely career-enders, you can grab Leshoure late for a big upside running back with a long career in front of him.

• Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker isn't being ignored by the fantasy community, but he is clearly being undervalued. He has gone to a team that plays on turf and lacks a true WR1. A mish-mash of receivers in the WR1 spot managed to catch 60+ balls and 900 yards in Sam Bradford's rookie season. With Sims-Walker's talent and Bradford's development, it is entirely possible that the Rams WR1 could be a 90 catch, 1200 yard behemoth for the next half-decade.

• Roy Williams - For all his troubles, Williams is still in his prime (only 29 years old) and has shown plenty of ability on the field. He is reuniting with his position coach from the University of Texas and Mike Martz, whom under he had his best season as a pro. Williams was deliberate in choosing Chicago and with Jay Cutler's strong arm throwing the ball, he could have a second-life as a star receiver despite being a very low pick in dynasty drafts.

I'm no longer a subscriber but tell me he at least hit on a few guys and that wasn't his complete list.

Nope that was the whole list

everyone knows Colin is terrible at FF.

 

[Crazysight]

My opinion, and that's all anybody has here, is that the QB position is loaded up with future stars right now, and the existing ones (Manning, Brady, Brees, etc) are aging and soon to fade. I'd be looking to wait on the QB position some and stock up on the true young guns in the league who will be undervalued right now, such as Locker, Luck, RGIII, Kaepernick will probably be very good whenever he gets his chance, and even Terrelle Pryor should be a good fantasy performer once he's given a chance to let his awesome physical abilities translate to points on the field. Cam Newton is the obvious one to mention, although he will likely be overdrafted. If I had a choice I'd wait to take future QB stars like the ones I just mentioned, and take young runningbacks early. DeMarco Murray is probably about to see his stock pop in Dallas' productive offense, he'd be a good bet to take early. There are several good looking backs coming out of this year's rookie draft as well, David Wilson is currently only 20 years old (will be 21 in June)! Stay away from guys whose productivity is largely tied to that of the older elite QBs too, such as Gronk and Jimmy Graham. A better TE for the long haul would likely be someone like Jared Cook, or perhaps Jermichael Finley. Take note of what franchises appear to be rebuilding, and grab young players whose value may benefit. Fred Davis and David Gettis would be good examples. Gettis is the type who could be a real sleeper before long if Cam continues to dominate, and he's worth a late round look.

While I agree with most of what you said, I don't really agree about Gronk and Graham. Brady and Brees each have 3 elite seasons left in them, and that's about as far as you can look out.

Well I mean if they happen to drop and you can get good value on them, than sure. That won't likely happen though. Particularly with Gronk having such a monster season last year, then having the ankle problem and also having Brandon Lloyd in the mix now too I doubt that he'll be quite as good in the near term as he was last season. Though the ankle isn't expected to be an issue headed into next season, last I heard he was still in a boot. It's hard to know how much longer any of these older QBs have too. They're all essentially just one injury away from retirement at this stage.

 

[outlawassassins]

1)How is your league scored?

2)Are you in a flex league?

These are two questions that I think we need to know the answer to in order to really give you the best startup dynasty advice..

My advice would be to grab a really good QB early if you can..my league scores td's as 6, 1 pt. for every 25 pss yds, 1 pt for 10 rushing yds, and -2 for an interception. Good QB's in my league usually score 20-30+ pts per week, and are usually the highest scoring position. Running Backs don't last that long in an NFL career and WR's are hit and miss.. I would select a great QB early and build around him for the future.

 

[Pots]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

 

[meyerj31]

I'm in a start-up drafting right now. This is what I have so far. Bold are starters. 12-team league. 2 flex positions.

I went with the strategy of trading out the 1.2 for the 2.03/4.03 and got Nicks/Britt effectively. Pretty sick value IMO.

We start 9 and RB is my weakest area. But I have two potential rock star TEs and 4 of the top 12 dynasty WRs, plus Brees. I think I'm in great shape.

Player YTD Pts Bye Trade?

Brees, Drew NOS QB - 11

Cassel, Matt KCC QB (P) - 6

Locker, Jake TEN QB - 6

Tannehill, Ryan FA QB ® - -

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB (P) - 7

Gerhart, Toby MIN RB (P) - 9

Helu, Roy WAS RB - 5

Royster, Evan WAS RB - 5

Vereen, Shane NEP RB - 7

Benjamin, Travis FA WR ® - -

Bess, Davone MIA WR (P) - 5

Britt, Kenny TEN WR (Q) - 6

Cobb, Randall GBP WR - 8

Harvin, Percy MIN WR (P) - 9

Jennings, Greg GBP WR - 8

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR - 7

Davis, Vernon SFO TE - 7

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE - 7

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent3) Win this year or next year4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

If this isn't sarcasm, you're a piece of garbage.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent3) Win this year or next year4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

If this isn't sarcasm, you're a piece of garbage.

I agree with his 1-3. part 4 not so much. Part 4 would be - trade and trade and trade and dont forget to work the wire.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Rape the noobs!

 

[JPeso]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

 

[squistion]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

One guy in particular which we both shared a league with - nickname was Mr. Sadness because his team and the league were left in a sad state of affairs after he gutted the team and moved on. In startup drafts this year he has begun the cycle again and has already ready participated in at least two drafts. His team name is appropriately a snake and I pity those of you in the new leagues he has joined because you will have to deal with the aftermath of replacing him after a few years like we did as he moves on to his next startup.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

One guy in particular which we both shared a league with - nickname was Mr. Sadness because his team and the league were left in a sad state of affairs after he gutted the team and moved on. In startup drafts this year he has begun the cycle again and has already ready participated in at least two drafts. His team name is appropriately a snake and I pity those of you in the new leagues he has joined because you will have to deal with the aftermath of replacing him after a few years like we did as he moves on to his next startup.

Let me guess...a Cobra

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

I've left one dynasty league ever. I had a playoff team, but the commish would continually make questionable trades.

However, I've had several leagues fold because teams all left their bad situations and people didn't want to step into them. Also the commish didn't have a good team, so he was okay to watch it fold

 

[doowain]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

One guy in particular which we both shared a league with - nickname was Mr. Sadness because his team and the league were left in a sad state of affairs after he gutted the team and moved on. In startup drafts this year he has begun the cycle again and has already ready participated in at least two drafts. His team name is appropriately a snake and I pity those of you in the new leagues he has joined because you will have to deal with the aftermath of replacing him after a few years like we did as he moves on to his next startup.

Let me guess...a Cobra

What a Bandit....e.

 

[squistion]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

One guy in particular which we both shared a league with - nickname was Mr. Sadness because his team and the league were left in a sad state of affairs after he gutted the team and moved on. In startup drafts this year he has begun the cycle again and has already ready participated in at least two drafts. His team name is appropriately a snake and I pity those of you in the new leagues he has joined because you will have to deal with the aftermath of replacing him after a few years like we did as he moves on to his next startup.

Let me guess...a Cobra

I will neither confirm nor deny that.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Find owners that won't #### out and quit when their team sucks.

 

[DexterDew]

No one likes to see a dynasty league fold, and owners who employ the "slash and burn" trading style are pretty easy to spot: hyper aggressive by spamming offers then wondering where is the counter... Collecting next year's dues helps to some extent, but then you have to make sure the commish is on the level (or if there is anything left to salvage from the wreckage)

Back to the topic at hand:

I did a couple start ups last year with the hopes to be a strong contender in Year 2 and beyond. It goes against human nature to know that Year 1 is going to painful, but if you have the big picture in mind and stay true to the mission, there is a payoff in Year 2. I like to acquire future picks for currency during the season and for the next draft. Picks=Options. You may not find a willing trading partner (not likely, but possible), but the key is to find Win/Win trades and not try and get the "perfect trade". If you are stuck with the pick, take the BPA so you have more value going forward. For me, the last part of the puzzle is RB, and I am OK with rookies and 3rd down backs (in ppr) to start. So I will find a difference maker at QB and/or TE, then load up on WRs since they have a longer shelf life.

During the season, after about 4 weeks you can tell who is going to be a buyer and who is going to be a seller. Made the mistake last year of thinking I had a team that could compete and went from Buyer to Seller in 3 days. So you have to be flexible in your thinking.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

1) I always look at the format of the league first in a startup format.

The biggest problem that people face in dynasty leagues is that they don't look at the league setup.

-How many teams?

-Starters?

-Scoring System?

If it's a 10 team league...then QBs aren't as important. If it's a 16 team league they are much more valuable.

If it's a non-ppr who cares about TE's. If it's 2 PPR for TE's, whoa baby i'm getting some TE's.

2) Then I figure out the differences between the first starter to the last starter at each position. For instance, if you're in a 12 team league. I figure out the QB1 PPG - QB12 PPG. Then I compare those difference between QB, RB, WR, TE. This will reveal areas to value for your draft. You can then do the same thing with backups to find out how much depth a position had the year before. WR1-WR12, WR13-WR24, WR25-WR36 etc. WR1-WR36.

3) Then I rank each of the positions. In Dynasty especially, I have my list with the players age right next their name. Reason being if after 5 rounds you have Tom Brady, MJD, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Jason Witten...then I would shy away from very young players that have little chance to contribute this season.

4) After I rank the players I put them into tiers. The RB drop off happens at this point, etc.

5) I then do a mock draft of the first 5 rounds or so. Figuring out when a huge drop in value is for all of the players. Lets say it's round 7, then I would advise you to trade your 8th/9th rounders to move up ahead of that drop in value.

6) During the trade keep all trade options open. I can't tell you how many times I'm deciding between 3 players and an owner approaches me with an offer. I take the offer, then I still get my player, while still improving a later round pick. Trading is all about value. Some owners will sell the farm, some deals you will lose value in the "trade calculator". Nothing matters except what you think in terms of value.

7) Lastly, draft players that you like when you want to. Just because a players ADP is 82 and you have the 62nd pick doesn't mean you don't pick him. Walk away from the draft with the team that YOU want.

 

[Banemorth]

7) Lastly, draft players that you like when you want to. Just because a players ADP is 82 and you have the 62nd pick doesn't mean you don't pick him. Walk away from the draft with the team that YOU want.

One of my favorite points in this thread. There are players I WILL NOT draft because it would bring me no joy to have them on my team. Players on teams I dislike, players I think are scumbags, players that burned me in the past. I have to build a team I actually can cheer for.

 

[Shutout]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

Well, not to cast stones, but didn't you join a league I was in about 3 years ago and then leave after the first year after you spun some trades and it didn't pan out?Just saying: people have reasons..Not everyone is looking to act like the above poster.

 

[JPeso]

1) Draft elite talent regardless of age, take advantage of those passed up just because people view them as 'older'

2) Trade away all draft picks you can for more talent

3) Win this year or next year

4) If you don't win, find a new league for year 3 and repeat steps 1-3

Lame. Stick with redraft if you're not capable of thinking long-term.

I've been pushing for a Black List on this for a while. Guys are leaving really ####ty teams that cannot be filled without a discount, citing some rule or personal matter, yet join several new leagues the very next year. When you call them out on it they play the victim. I suppose it might be difficult to police, but there has to be a way when guys in leagues with "respected" owners are dumping the most awful of teams and joining new drafts, attempting to replicate what they saw work from their competitors in the leagues they dumped because they were scared of real competition. I digress.

Well, not to cast stones, but didn't you join a league I was in about 3 years ago and then leave after the first year after you spun some trades and it didn't pan out?Just saying: people have reasons..Not everyone is looking to act like the above poster.

I have never been in a league where trades didn't pan out. I sold out of several leagues with commissioner's approval in several leagues, but the teams were uber-dominant. Care to link me to where you are talking about?ETA: I have lost trades. And some very badly.