What makes someone good at FFB? (1 Viewer)

[SharkBait]

In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW

Persistance might help the luck. For example, I took on a lot of dead wood, before sitting there watching a Houston Texans game (I live in West Texas and "luckily" was forced to watch...), and saw DD come in to the game, and how the Texans used him down the stretch in the 4th quarter to move the chains and move the clock. So I added him to 5 of my 6 teams, dropping various and asundry other projects. Finally I got lucky, but only because I continue to plug away.I just a happened to be looking over the transactions in one of my leagues this morning, and at $2 a transaction I've got more transactions than anyone in the league. I just keep trying different things hoping for a little luck.So in that list, I'd add...8. Persistance.9. MORE luckGood luck.

 

[ShadowMaster]

Solid drafting - get the most talent right from the start and you won't need luck or FA fate to get you through. Talent gets you past a bad early pick that underachieves (ie: McNabb)Talent gets you through bye weeks and injuries.Sure - there is SOME luck involved. You have to stay healthy and get a few breaks to win, but a strong SOLID draft is the key to being good at FFB.

 

[tommyboy]

by the way, if you are in a dynasty league, one thing I do that I think works is prior to the draft I download that VBD program and run it using our leagues scoring system. I then print it out and keep it tucked away. When draft time comes I use it to target quality players for depth in the mid-late rounds.at the same time, I look at my roster as it stands and I look at everyone else's roster and I rank every single player on every team including my own. I then look at my roster and analyze my greatest needs and I rank them in order. For example, my #1 priority this year was to draft a rookie RB with upside potential (Onterrio Smith), #2 priority was to draft a top 10 Def (picked up Carolina) after that I needed to draft 2 TE's that were pre-ranked in the top 10 (Freddie Jones and Steph. Alexander who I later waived for Desmond Clark), after that I needed to add at least 2, possibly 3 projected top 40 WR's for depth (S Smith, I Hilliard, M Booker), finally I needed a bye week QB (Jeff Blake). At the same time I cut several underperforming players from previous years roster. What I ended up doing was creating a lot more actual quality depth on my roster rather than trying to hit home runs and then filling in the gaps. I still had a shortage of good RB2's but since by mid-season my WR core was so deep with 6 top 30 WR's, I used two of them to trade for Fred Taylor.so I had a plan, stuck to it and accomplished what I wanted. At the draft I also knew what the weaknesses of my fellow owners were because I had done my homework, so I could offer trades that I knew they'd be interested in. Again, this goes back to understanding the motivations and desires of your fellow owners. However, without the pre-draft analysis of actual roster strength none of that matters. I highly recommend doing that in dynasty leagues.

 

[Bristol]

To be good at FFB, you will need to change your name to Bristol.

 

[blue42]

After reading all these great responses, I’ve come to a conclusion of sorts. Some things in life are more “science” than “art”. I would conclude that fantasy football (and perhaps most sports evaluation, like handicapping or scouting) is more of an “art”. When you look at it from the perspective of an artist, I feel like I’m one of the best “paint-by-numbers” kind of guy. Always have the info, quick on the trigger on the waiver wire, good trader, etc. What I don’t possess is the type of skill to take something ordinary looking (my team) and turn it into a Van Gogh. I think that results from seeing something behind the numbers. I can’t tell you how many times I look at target info, points scored by team, number of carries, etc. and realized later that there are some things the numbers alone don’t tell you. I’ve actually thought about giving up this extremely frustrating hobby, as it’s currently causing more harm that good. When I look at the same people winning every year, I realize that there’s no “luck” involved - these guys have skill. I see guys everywhere that took McNabb, R. Williams, and Faulk in the 1st round that are killing the competition. That doesn’t look like luck to me….

 

[rhawkins68]

In leagues full of equally matched ffers, luck is the biggest factor...most leagues are not equally matched though.

I go this wayAdd 1 part luckAdd 1 part researchAdd 1 part Football knowledgeI have only had one season were I was not in the top of my league and it was my first FFL outing and I didn't take it that seriously. This year I have had terrible luck but am still #2 in my division and moving forward strongly. Also you MUST know you league scoring rules and adjust, many people I have seen take a cheatsheet as gold even though it does not match the scoring system they will be using.

 

[rhawkins68]

I knew Jamal Lewis would put up good numbers put passed on him because he does not fit my RB mold.I passed on R. Williams because he does not fit my RB mould.Now what do I look for in an RB. 1) Ability to hit the outside 2) Ability to catch the ball 3) Ability to run up the middle if needed. the backs I put in this slot are A. Green, P. Holmes, C. Portis, M. Faulk any back that are similiar to them.For WR's I always look for the guy that is a play maker and is a deep threat. hence me picking up S. Smith, D. Stallworth, E. Moulds, S. Moss, A. Lelie, J. Smith. They all fit the spec well. Where possible I try and go with Youth.QB I don't worry about much but look for a team that likes to throw the ball alot.

 

[Wingnut]

Luck is factor #1. Being savvy (smart, patient, etc) is factor #2.Overthinking/overcoaching is probably the #1 reason for downfall in FF if you can avoid the injury bug. Ive seen it too many times -- someone has a GREAT team, but makes the wrong decisions along the way (dropping someone too early for a 1-week wonder, thinking a player is a bust 3 weeks into the season and dropping them only to watch them come around the next few weeks, starting the wrong player due to a supposed "favorable" matchup, etc).You wanna talk luck? A guy in my league has the 3rd FEWEST points acored, but has the fewest points against. He is 7-3 (second best record in the league), has a 1 game lead in his division, a 4 game winning streak, and he gets wins by playing the only team that he could beat on many different weeks. In head to head leagues, schedule luck is about 50% of the final grade.So I agree with alot of folks that luck is a HUGE factor.

 

[Brewdude]

Solid drafting - get the most talent right from the start and you won't need luck or FA fate to get you through.

Theoretically, you should know how well your team will do after the draft, but you can't plan injuries or busts.How many new McNabb would stink so bad?Did anyone in your league draft DomDavis? I'm betting he was an FA/WW pickup in 98% of the leagues out there and he's probably a starter in 85% of those. That would be FA fate.How many teams drafted Boldin? Same principle as above.How many teams drafted RW in the first 2 slots? He's a bigger bust than McNabb, IMO.Good drafting is the start, not the end-all, to a good fantasy team.

 

[Gadzooks]

I think luck plays a huge role but hard work can make the difference between being competitive and being great. This past week for example my entire team stunk with the exception of Santana Moss. Even with Moss I was still destined for defeat until I saw that my opponent started Garner and he went out with injury early and then Sunday night Adam Archuleta went off for me (IDP league). The top scoring DB in our league averages 9.84 pts per game, Archuleta got 29.50. I ended up with the win because Garner got hurt and Archuleta had the biggest game by DB in our league this year. I wish I could take credit for those 2 things but I can't. I would also be closer to the lead for total pts if Portis played more than just a half against the Chargers and Raiders and if he hadn't missed the lions game, but when I drafted him I failed to predict that he might bruise his sternum in the first half of the charger game. That is why fantasy football relies so heavily on luck: because you can't predict injury. Now I firmly believe that if you work hard and acquire (draft, trade, waiver wire) enough depth you can sustain a key injury and still be competitive enough to possibly win your league, but then again you can still lose that league to the guy who drafts his team off of an August magazine cheatsheet and doesn't pay attention for the whole year, but his team stays healthy.Thankfully our league does head to head with prize money for the playoff teams but we also give out higher cash prizes for the top 3 total pts as well. Whoever wins the Super Bowl in our league doesn't get much respect because there is so much luck involved based on matchups, but whoever finishes with the most points at the end of the year has all the bragging rights. Personally I end up following the same pattern every year, I start off slow but make a run in the last 7 weeks with a roster that is much different than the one I drafted. I draft as many RB's as I can, and I draft a minimal amount of backups at WR and IDP positions. As the year goes on I use all of my roster moves (they're only $5 each we get 4 for the year, injury replacements are free) on any available players that show talent even if I don't need them for the position they play. By week 8 I start trading the quality depth I have acquired (by week 8, at least half the league needs a #2 or at least a #3 RB) and get quality for quantity. After week 10, the byes are done so depth isn't that important anymore.

 

[Grilled Cheesehead]

I think luck plays no factor when it comes to making the playoffs. I know that when I enter a league, I will be in the playoffs. I don't care who's in it, I will be in the playoffs. Most important for me is player evaluation. Evaluation, to me, is recognizing talent when you see it and opportunity when you see it. In my main league this season, we had an internet draft. I made the horrible mistake of including Ricky Williams on my pre-draft for the first pick. I was in the 11 spot, so I knew he wouldn't be around, but I listed him along with the rest of my top 11 players, as I knew I wouldn't be around for pick number 1. Why is this a problem, you ask? Because I accidentally clicked on Ricky Williams RB INDIANAPOLIS. Imagine my shock when I saw that I had RW2 instead of Ahman Green, who I would've had. But I didn't panic, I knew that I would have plenty of chances to overcome wasting my number 1 pick. I then followed that up with Edgerrin James, which has been a poor pick, especially considering Jamal Lewis was still around. Even though my first 4 picks ended up being RW2, Edge, Zero and Shockey - I have worked my way to again being in the playoffs. In hindsight, my draft was one of the worst I've ever seenAfter week 2 I picked up Jake Plummer, who had been dropped because of his shoulder injury, and got 2 good weeks out of him. After a 2-4 start, I am now 6-4 and have led the league in scoring 3 of the last 4 weeks. I recognized Domanick Davis, who had the combination of talent and opportunity. I watched him play the game where he replaced Mack, and his ability was clear, as was Mack's lack of ability. I recognized Steve Smith when Muhammed went down. He has been dominant since. I traded Zeroue and Fisher for Eddie George. I picked up Terry Glenn before the Detroit game and got 2 good starts out of him. I also stashed Bennett on my IR, and expect him to be a stud for me come the playoffs, along with DD.My roster has gone from horrible to dominant in the space of 4 weeks, and I am set up nicely for a championship run. This despite one of the worst drafts anyone could ever have. If I can be in the playoffs and as of now be the #2 leading scorer with this draft, I don't believe it is possible for me to miss a playoff, ever.

 

[zoonation]

If it isn't luck, and is about one's ability to look forward and evaluate talent and all that, how many people took Ahman Green in the top five........................................................NONE.How many people took Holt in the top five?.................NONE.How many people took Bulger or McNair in the top five?.......................NONEWhile it is not all luck (there is such thing as a shark), to suggest that luck doesn't play a factor is misguided.

 

[LHUCKS]

If it isn't luck, and is about one's ability to look forward and evaluate talent and all that, how many people took Ahman Green in the top five........................................................NONE.How many people took Holt in the top five?.................NONE.How many people took Bulger or McNair in the top five?.......................NONEWhile it is not all luck (there is such thing as a shark), to suggest that luck doesn't play a factor is misguided.

In equally matched leagues luck is the biggest factor, hardly any leagues are equally matched...including the expert leagues.Most people admit that in a single given year, luck is one of many factors.Over the course of several years, with the same owners...luck is a relatively small factor with respect to overall performance assuming league ownership is not equal in skill, which it hardly ever is.

 

[buck naked]

don't fret, fantasy football is 99.9% luck

Nice try cracKer, but I know you are smarter than that.Injuries are luck. Knowledge is not luck. Knowing the opportunities players will have in an offense is vital. A player's OPPORTUNITIES is the critical determinant. My first three picks this year in a ten team league, picking from the 10 hole: A. Green, J. Lewis, T. Holt. I could give you many, many facts that I based those decisions from. An example, I was extremely confident that J. Lewis would get more opportunities this year to showcase his skills based ON THE FACTS I GATHERED IN THE PRE-SEASON. Billik said he would not limit his carries this year like he did last year. That's just one.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think luck plays no factor when it comes to making the playoffs. I know that when I enter a league, I will be in the playoffs. I don't care who's in it, I will be in the playoffs.

You obviously don't compete in an equally matched league.

 

[Gadzooks]

I think luck plays no factor when it comes to making the playoffs. I know that when I enter a league, I will be in the playoffs. I don't care who's in it, I will be in the playoffs. Most important for me is player evaluation. Evaluation, to me, is recognizing talent when you see it and opportunity when you see it. In my main league this season, we had an internet draft. I made the horrible mistake of including Ricky Williams on my pre-draft for the first pick. I was in the 11 spot, so I knew he wouldn't be around, but I listed him along with the rest of my top 11 players, as I knew I wouldn't be around for pick number 1. Why is this a problem, you ask? Because I accidentally clicked on Ricky Williams RB INDIANAPOLIS. Imagine my shock when I saw that I had RW2 instead of Ahman Green, who I would've had. But I didn't panic, I knew that I would have plenty of chances to overcome wasting my number 1 pick. I then followed that up with Edgerrin James, which has been a poor pick, especially considering Jamal Lewis was still around. Even though my first 4 picks ended up being RW2, Edge, Zero and Shockey - I have worked my way to again being in the playoffs. In hindsight, my draft was one of the worst I've ever seenAfter week 2 I picked up Jake Plummer, who had been dropped because of his shoulder injury, and got 2 good weeks out of him. After a 2-4 start, I am now 6-4 and have led the league in scoring 3 of the last 4 weeks. I recognized Domanick Davis, who had the combination of talent and opportunity. I watched him play the game where he replaced Mack, and his ability was clear, as was Mack's lack of ability. I recognized Steve Smith when Muhammed went down. He has been dominant since. I traded Zeroue and Fisher for Eddie George. I picked up Terry Glenn before the Detroit game and got 2 good starts out of him. I also stashed Bennett on my IR, and expect him to be a stud for me come the playoffs, along with DD.My roster has gone from horrible to dominant in the space of 4 weeks, and I am set up nicely for a championship run. This despite one of the worst drafts anyone could ever have. If I can be in the playoffs and as of now be the #2 leading scorer with this draft, I don't believe it is possible for me to miss a playoff, ever.

So if Dom Davis, George, Smith, Glenn, Plummer get hurt this week and Bennet shares carries with the rest of his backfield then that must mean you did a bad job because luck doesn't play into it, right? No doubt you made some shrewd moves but injuries are a matter of luck, you can't predict them. There is no way you can say that luck plays no factor.

 

[blue42]

If it isn't luck, and is about one's ability to look forward and evaluate talent and all that, how many people took Ahman Green in the top five........................................................NONE.How many people took Holt in the top five?.................NONE.How many people took Bulger or McNair in the top five?.......................NONEWhile it is not all luck (there is such thing as a shark), to suggest that luck doesn't play a factor is misguided.

Green......1.05Holt.........2.02McNair.......2.05You're correct - no one took Holt & McNair within the first 5. They guys that took 'em in the 2nd round did get pretty lucky, though...Get my drift?

 

[Grilled Cheesehead]

I think luck plays no factor when it comes to making the playoffs. I know that when I enter a league, I will be in the playoffs. I don't care who's in it, I will be in the playoffs.

You obviously don't compete in an equally matched league.

Does anybody?

 

[Grilled Cheesehead]

I think luck plays no factor when it comes to making the playoffs. I know that when I enter a league, I will be in the playoffs. I don't care who's in it, I will be in the playoffs. Most important for me is player evaluation. Evaluation, to me, is recognizing talent when you see it and opportunity when you see it. In my main league this season, we had an internet draft. I made the horrible mistake of including Ricky Williams on my pre-draft for the first pick. I was in the 11 spot, so I knew he wouldn't be around, but I listed him along with the rest of my top 11 players, as I knew I wouldn't be around for pick number 1. Why is this a problem, you ask? Because I accidentally clicked on Ricky Williams RB INDIANAPOLIS. Imagine my shock when I saw that I had RW2 instead of Ahman Green, who I would've had. But I didn't panic, I knew that I would have plenty of chances to overcome wasting my number 1 pick. I then followed that up with Edgerrin James, which has been a poor pick, especially considering Jamal Lewis was still around. Even though my first 4 picks ended up being RW2, Edge, Zero and Shockey - I have worked my way to again being in the playoffs. In hindsight, my draft was one of the worst I've ever seenAfter week 2 I picked up Jake Plummer, who had been dropped because of his shoulder injury, and got 2 good weeks out of him. After a 2-4 start, I am now 6-4 and have led the league in scoring 3 of the last 4 weeks. I recognized Domanick Davis, who had the combination of talent and opportunity. I watched him play the game where he replaced Mack, and his ability was clear, as was Mack's lack of ability. I recognized Steve Smith when Muhammed went down. He has been dominant since. I traded Zeroue and Fisher for Eddie George. I picked up Terry Glenn before the Detroit game and got 2 good starts out of him. I also stashed Bennett on my IR, and expect him to be a stud for me come the playoffs, along with DD.My roster has gone from horrible to dominant in the space of 4 weeks, and I am set up nicely for a championship run. This despite one of the worst drafts anyone could ever have. If I can be in the playoffs and as of now be the #2 leading scorer with this draft, I don't believe it is possible for me to miss a playoff, ever.

So if Dom Davis, George, Smith, Glenn, Plummer get hurt this week and Bennet shares carries with the rest of his backfield then that must mean you did a bad job because luck doesn't play into it, right? No doubt you made some shrewd moves but injuries are a matter of luck, you can't predict them. There is no way you can say that luck plays no factor.

I may have been wrong to say luck plays no factor. The situation you described goes far beyond "bad luck". But, technically, you've got me on that one.

 

[cracKer]

Nice try cracKer, but I know you are smarter than that.

I've always been on the skill side of this argument, but I think that I underestimated the value of a favorable (or unfavorable) schedule. That and injuries are the two biggest luck factors that play in, I believe, and they vary from year to year.If you're good, you can fight through bad luck/schedule and salvage a season (probably won't win it all though). Without skill, it would kill you.Then again, without skill you could ride good luck/schedule to a championship. That's been proven many times on this board

 

[Grilled Cheesehead]

If it isn't luck, and is about one's ability to look forward and evaluate talent and all that, how many people took Ahman Green in the top five........................................................NONE.How many people took Holt in the top five?.................NONE.How many people took Bulger or McNair in the top five?.......................NONEWhile it is not all luck (there is such thing as a shark), to suggest that luck doesn't play a factor is misguided.

Anyone who took Holt or Bulger or McNair in the first 5 picks is an idiot for not waiting the 2-4 rounds later each of them could've been drafted. Not to mention, even with their stats this season, none of the 3 are deserving of top 5 picks in regular FBG scoring. Pointwise, the top 5 are Holmes, Green, LT, Lewis and McNair. VBD drafting would replace McNair with Moss. For example, if I somehow knew before the season that Domanick Davis was going to do what he's done the last few weeks, I would still be an idiot for taking him with anything other than my last pick of the draft, knowing that nobody else would take him.

 

[Wingnut]

If it isn't luck, and is about one's ability to look forward and evaluate talent and all that, how many people took Ahman Green in the top five........................................................NONE.How many people took Holt in the top five?.................NONE.How many people took Bulger or McNair in the top five?.......................NONEWhile it is not all luck (there is such thing as a shark), to suggest that luck doesn't play a factor is misguided.

Green went first round, which is a crapshoot, with the exception of one or two players. Nobody knows at the draft which of the top 8 RBs will actually be the #1 RB.Holt was the 5th WR taken in my draft, behind Moss, Harrison, T.O, and Moulds.McNair was the 12th QB taken. Theres ALWAYS one thats taken between 10 and 15 that end up top 5. Consider yourself lucky if you picked him up late. I got B Johnson in round 9, so Im feeling lucky myself (It afforded me the luxury of being able to trrade Manning week 5 for a WR#1 and decent RB#2)Im not really arguing here, Im in the "luck plays a big factor" camp, I just wanted to post where those guys went in my draft.Good luck or Bad luck, its still luck. If someone in a 12 team league drafted, in this order (and keeping it somewhat believable), Preist, S Davis, Holt, CJ, S Moss, Gonzo, McNair, Moe, McCardell, D Davis....Yes that would have been an incredible draft, but also lucky. Nobody would have thought (on draft day) that by week 10 this team would be a powerhouse. Only if all the chips fell in the right place would this team be a BIG TIME contender (and whaddya know?? It happened!)So my view hasnt changed, I just felt like re-iterating that luck does indeed play a big factor in FF. Good or bad, its still luck.

 

[BGP]

1. Get two stud RBs.2. Get two stud RBs.3. Get two stud RBs.That is pretty much it. Your job in the first two rounds of a redraft is to position yourself so that you walk away with two stud RBs. That's the safest way to stay competitive year in and year out. You can get there two ways:1. Trade down in round one so that you move up in round two.2. Trade a low second plus a pick or two to move up in round two.The bottom of the second round = fantasy football death. Do everything to avoid it. I offered my low second PLUS my third round pick just to move up in round two and everyone turned me down in a shark league. I offered Chris Smith the 2.10 + 3.06 for his 2.04 and he turned me down. I offered Chase Stewart the 2.10 + 3.06 for his 2.08 and he turned me down just to take Curtis Martin. That should tell you something.

 

[tommyboy]

see this debate just re-affirms my belief that a dynasty league where you can protect all of your players year after year is a more valid indicator of a person's ability to spot talent, evaluate opportunities and adjust their roster accordingly through trades and waivers. The draft in a true dynasty is really about picking up young potential studs or free agents that MIGHT have a better opportunity with a new team, or guys that were cut in the previous season that are healthy again or just overlooked. Over the course of our 11 year league there have been 3 or 4 owners that have consistently faired well due to their shrewd judge of talent and ability to recognize opportunity. It is only recently that some other owners have wised up and made similar shrewd moves. I think dynasty leagues are long term a much more realistic judge of skill in FF than re-draft leagues are. But I'm a bit biased. The nice thing about a dynasty league is that some owners are going to go all out to secure a title this year while others will be looking "down the road" and due to that scenario trades can benefit both parties. This type of league puts a major premium on talent evaluation and planning.

 

[tdoss]

Sure there's luck involved...especially if you're in a playoff framed league...however, like you said...over years...the same guys are usually the one's with the best records at season end.

It's effort...plain and simple. Putting in time...effort...reading...thinking...strategizing...constantly focusing on your team and every aspect of it...then focusing on everyone else's team...where are their weaknesses...how can you take advantage of those weaknesses...how can you pull away one of their strengths...

There's so many things to fantasy football...and if you're in a league with 11 other guys...you're bound to find two or more who put in a tremendous amount of effort.

A good tip is to always talk to everyone...usually the commissioners are fairly successful in most leagues...why? Effort for one...but also communication...everyone talks to the commish at least once a week...everyone...in one way shape or form...the commish gets some sort of input from everyone in the league. Why is this useful? Talking to everyone...even a few minutes everyday or other day allows you to get a feel for how the owner feels about his team. How many times do you hear about a trade and go..."D@mn...I would've given you more if you would've asked!" Problem is...YOU didn't ask. If you ask how their doing...how's their team...etc...small talk...you'd be amazed at what people will tell you. You'll hear stuff like, "I can't stand this guy...I hate him"...ding, ding, ding...that's an opportunity knocking. Or, "I'm doing OK...but my TE's are sucking"...another opportunity...if you don't have the TE...go get him...and bring him back to him...work a three way deal...whatever it takes...because eventually that guy is going to tell the right person that he hates his TE's and that other owner with the extra TE is going to capitalize. So...bottomline...communication is very important.

To me...an owner's strengths can be summed up by these categories...there's really only so many things that determine wins and losses:

Draft - Are you an excellent drafter? Does most of your team end up on the waiver wire? If so...which picks? If it's your later picks...then next year...put those picks together and trade up...you're wasting them anyway...or...get better at drafting...figure out what is your downfall. Are you taking too many risks? Do you not take enough?

Trade - Can you make trades? Can you make good trades? How do most of your trades end up over time? Do you benefit or at least pull even? If not...what's wrong? Again...did you gamble too much? Did you not get enough depth or cover some of your key players who have injury history and are now left scrambling? Are you looking at schedules and seeing why certain players are struggling and why some might be flourishing? And with that...are you looking ahead to see who might break out in the second half or at the very least your playoffs? Here's a tip I use from time to time...if there's a guy I'm thinking of trading...I immediately look at the team that I'm playing the week that this soon to be traded player is on bye. That way...even if the trade does go bad...it won't affect me directly...and...you're weakening your opponent the week you play them. You usually have to do this week's in advance...otherwise they'll see it coming.

Luck - Hey...it does have it's place. Everyone gets a bad stretch from time to time...injuries and whatnot...but if you're prepared...you can mitigate the luck...depending on the above two factors.

Waiver Wire - Are you constantly watching the waiver wire...taking shots and gambling with one or two spots? You should always take a few shots on fliers...if you hear a guy is going to be the new #2 WR for whoever...go ahead...take a shot...if you're last ranked WR is playing like crap...cut him loose...take a shot...everynow and then you land an ABoldin or DDavis...it's these little things that will put you over the hump.

Team Management - Picking the right starters...usually not a big deal for most...because they only have so many studs and not many choices...but if you're good at the above categories...then you'll have more studs to choose from...or at least more semi-studs. Are you using the schedule to your advantage? Are you looking at your byes...your matchups...your in injuries...and making the right decisions?

Strategy - You're either a strategist or your not...can you see the angles that others are using...do you see some you can implement. Are you looking at your opponent's byes/matchups/injuries. You should know about everyone's "issues" before they do...if you want to be successful. Be quick to spot an opportunity...look around...if you see one...be the first one to pick up the phone with, "Hey bro...I see you've got issues at WR coming up in the next few weeks...maybe we can help each other".

Now...where are you lacking? Evaluate yourself honestly and try to improve in the areas that you're not so good at...use your strengths in other areas to better assist your fantasy ownership.

 

[Waverunner]

Sure there's luck involved...especially if you're in a playoff framed league...however, like you said...over years...the same guys are usually the one's with the best records at season end.

It's effort...plain and simple. Putting in time...effort...reading...thinking...strategizing...constantly focusing on your team and every aspect of it...then focusing on everyone else's team...where are their weaknesses...how can you take advantage of those weaknesses...how can you pull away one of their strengths...

There's so many things to fantasy football...and if you're in a league with 11 other guys...you're bound to find two or more who put in a tremendous amount of effort.

A good tip is to always talk to everyone...usually the commissioners are fairly successful in most leagues...why? Effort for one...but also communication...everyone talks to the commish at least once a week...everyone...in one way shape or form...the commish gets some sort of input from everyone in the league. Why is this useful? Talking to everyone...even a few minutes everyday or other day allows you to get a feel for how the owner feels about his team. How many times do you hear about a trade and go..."D@mn...I would've given you more if you would've asked!" Problem is...YOU didn't ask. If you ask how their doing...how's their team...etc...small talk...you'd be amazed at what people will tell you. You'll hear stuff like, "I can't stand this guy...I hate him"...ding, ding, ding...that's an opportunity knocking. Or, "I'm doing OK...but my TE's are sucking"...another opportunity...if you don't have the TE...go get him...and bring him back to him...work a three way deal...whatever it takes...because eventually that guy is going to tell the right person that he hates his TE's and that other owner with the extra TE is going to capitalize. So...bottomline...communication is very important.

To me...an owner's strengths can be summed up by these categories...there's really only so many things that determine wins and losses:

Draft - Are you an excellent drafter? Does most of your team end up on the waiver wire? If so...which picks? If it's your later picks...then next year...put those picks together and trade up...you're wasting them anyway...or...get better at drafting...figure out what is your downfall. Are you taking too many risks? Do you not take enough?

Trade - Can you make trades? Can you make good trades? How do most of your trades end up over time? Do you benefit or at least pull even? If not...what's wrong? Again...did you gamble too much? Did you not get enough depth or cover some of your key players who have injury history and are now left scrambling? Are you looking at schedules and seeing why certain players are struggling and why some might be flourishing? And with that...are you looking ahead to see who might break out in the second half or at the very least your playoffs? Here's a tip I use from time to time...if there's a guy I'm thinking of trading...I immediately look at the team that I'm playing the week that this soon to be traded player is on bye. That way...even if the trade does go bad...it won't affect me directly...and...you're weakening your opponent the week you play them. You usually have to do this week's in advance...otherwise they'll see it coming.

Luck - Hey...it does have it's place. Everyone gets a bad stretch from time to time...injuries and whatnot...but if you're prepared...you can mitigate the luck...depending on the above two factors.

Waiver Wire - Are you constantly watching the waiver wire...taking shots and gambling with one or two spots? You should always take a few shots on fliers...if you hear a guy is going to be the new #2 WR for whoever...go ahead...take a shot...if you're last ranked WR is playing like crap...cut him loose...take a shot...everynow and then you land an ABoldin or DDavis...it's these little things that will put you over the hump.

Team Management - Picking the right starters...usually not a big deal for most...because they only have so many studs and not many choices...but if you're good at the above categories...then you'll have more studs to choose from...or at least more semi-studs. Are you using the schedule to your advantage? Are you looking at your byes...your matchups...your in injuries...and making the right decisions?

Strategy - You're either a strategist or your not...can you see the angles that others are using...do you see some you can implement. Are you looking at your opponent's byes/matchups/injuries. You should know about everyone's "issues" before they do...if you want to be successful. Be quick to spot an opportunity...look around...if you see one...be the first one to pick up the phone with, "Hey bro...I see you've got issues at WR coming up in the next few weeks...maybe we can help each other".

Now...where are you lacking? Evaluate yourself honestly and try to improve in the areas that you're not so good at...use your strengths in other areas to better assist your fantasy ownership.

TDoss you hit it right on the head. Just like Pro Players I go into each season and look at last year and which area I can improve in and concentrate on getting better in that area. Also I don't think I will ever give up the commisioners position for the reason you stated above ( even though I do stats from NFL.COM with an excel spreadsheet). Being Commish is very valuable to me. BTW this year was trading I got burned last year and this year I took advantage of others weaknesses and didn't trade just to be trading.Once again Nice post TDoss

 

[bentley]

The 3 P's of fantasy football-

1) Preparation

2) Patience
3) Persistence

I learned the SIX "P"'s...Prior

Planning

Prevents

Piss

Poor

Performance

this post brought a smile to my face as i recalled my pledging days when our Pledge Master would speak about the Seven PsPiss

Poor

Planning

Promotes

Piss

Poor

Performance

your six Ps gets the nod for expressing more meaning and substance, but it lacks the punch of our seven Ps.

 

[Hawk]

My primary philosophy has always been to maximize my upside. One of the biggest mistakes I see constantly in my leagues is wasted roster space. If you have the ability to add and drop players each week, then there is absolutely no friggin reason at all... ever ...to carry more than one TE or one kicker (except when you pick up bye week replacements and then drop them the next week), and usually, one defense and two QB's is plenty as well. Use the later rounds to stock up the rest of your roster with RB's and WR's that have upside potential instead. Not all of them will pan out, but you increase your odds of hitting on a sleeper if you carry 3 or 4 more sleeper candidates than the idiots that carry two kickers, two TE's, etc. all year. When I look at my roster grids, I always have the longest list of RB's and WR's in the league.

 

[chpmnk17]

Here is my two cents on this. An intelligent draft, and an aggresive waiver wire work has worked for me for last four years. With all the information available to all the owners, we can not count on reacting to actual results. It is always too late. We have to react to 'EXPECTED' results. For an intelligent draft: Key on couple of Third/Fourth year WRs. Couple of Back-up RBs(talented) in good running Teams. Lamar Gordon, Deshawn Foster, Chester Taylor, Marcell Shipp and Mo Morris are few examples. Aggresive Waiver Work: Always look for reasons for someone to succeed. Santana Moss is an good case. As soon as Pennington comes back he might even be better than last years L Coles. Important thing is to pick him up at least two weeks before Pennington starts. I was able to have Lamar Gordon, Marcell Shipp, Deshawn Foster, Rudi Johnson, Santana Moss in my 16 Player Team two weeks before they actually started. Currently have Josh Reed & Mo Morris in the Team. Point is, we are not going to succeed all the time. Good thing is, we don't need to. If we are successful two to three times a season, we should be well on our way to the playoff.

 

[hove]

A good schedule.

Truer FFball words have not be spoken... Our league's second highest scoring team is 3-7 but has far and away the most Points Against in the league. :wacko:

 

[smlevin]

Jumping into the fray REAL late here, but I know plenty of 3-7 or worse teams with great FF players - had wonderful drafts, worked the WW wire the best they could, but they had bad luck, or lots of injuries.I also know quite a few teams doing well based on the same factors - lack of injuries, good luck, etc. - but thier owners are FF ignoramuses. Here's a fable of a poor FF player: one team in my longest lasting league would draft his team and make NO moves all year long, regardless of injuries, etc. He drafted fairly well, and he just played it out with his guys- made the playoffs several years in a row with no transaction (no championships, either). Hpwever, he also was never was faced with significant adversity - never had more than one or two players injured at one time, often had HIS guys having career days, but not facing other guys' career days. That type of thing.This past year his team was hit by a rash of injuries - he was forced to use the WW - he needed to make moves - and his guppiness has come through - he is a 3-7 team with no prospects of improving to make the playoffs. My point here is that a good FF player can still lose based on factors beyond their control, but if they do the "objective" thing correctly, they are a good player. And a bad player, can't compensate for adversity.My other point is that staying involved makes you a good player - improving your team even when winning, and figuring out how to improve it correctly even when losing. Finally, I think the most telling way to find a good FF player is the guy who can think "correctly" regardless of the type of game it is, and regardless of scoring rules. My league converted from big scores for defensive TDs to only 4 points for defensive TDs this past year. I, of course, drafted accordingly and waited very late on D. Others did not. They were not able to think abstractly and simply took the best Ds early and often - it was halfway through the year before people figured out that having a great D was only worth a smattering of points each week, and backup Ds starting getting dropped for WR5 and RB5 players.Biggest thing that a good FF player is NOT? Predicting production. The guy who took Q. Morgan thinking he'd be a 1000/8 WR is not a bad FF player - but, the guy who took him in the 5th round, counting on him to be a WR2, and not either backing him up immediately with another WR2, and/or failing to acquire a better WR2 within the first 2-3 weeks of the season, IS a bad FF player.

 

[smlevin]

Truer FFball words have not be spoken... Our league's second highest scoring team is 3-7 but has far and away the most Points Against in the league. :wacko:

Sounds like you mean me - I am the second highest scoring team, I have a 3-6-1 record, and I have 942 points against - the next closest team has 795 points against.Take away the two league aberrations (my 942 against, and the lowest "points against" of 653), and we see that the points against in that league are bunched up between 710 and 795. The two points against numbers you see above are HUGE aberrations from the norm and explains our records WAY better than our FF skills do. I had a MUCH better draft, have made all the "right" WW moves and trades, yet I am 3-6-1 (almost eliminated from the playoffs) and he is 5-4-1 (almost guaranteed a playoff berth).

 

[pettifogger]

Great discussion. A few notes --For the draft, the VBD form works great (put your league rules in) but keep in mind that you don't have to follow it slavishly. If there are 5 WRs available within 5-10 points of each other, the difference is statistically insignificant (they're projections, after all). Before the draft, using the VBD list, try to draw lines segregating blocks of players who are clustered numerically. It's sort of an arbitrary cutoff so you can think of first rank, second rank, third rank players, etc. I usually do them in 10-15 player breaks. If one of the groups is emptying fast you may need to fish in that pond sooner than later. Or, if you are thin in one ranking, you may need to grab a couple from the next tier, but you'll have a sense where you are short. When you see a story on a player you think is a breakout candidate, mark his name with an asterisk on the VBD list. Basically you are reminding yourself that if you are picking in that cluster, go for the marked players first. Probably he is not moving up to another tier but he's moving to the head of that cluster. Go for a QB on a good team or a team that throws a high volume of passes (west coast offense style) over other QBs in that cluster. I took Brad Johnson late following that theory, luckily. Our league leader this year took Hasselback following that theory. When looking at the free agent pool, try sorting the stats for QBs by passer rating or yards per attempt, to see how the rankings change. It helped me spot Pennington as a free agent last year. Obviously stud RBs are gold dust but if you only have one and are on a RBBC for the #2 spot, I like to look for guys who catch passes too since that's a sign of speed and versatility, and even if he's shut out by a tough D Line, he may get yards on receptions. It led me to grab Marcel Shipp last year and again to draft him this year. And, if a team has a starting RB whose YPC sucks, look for the backup, esp. if his YPC is pretty good. I was lucky again to grab Domanick Davis this year after his 7 carry game, right before the breakout. Try sorting the free agent pool by YPC instead of total yards gained. Look for WRs in the free agent pool with fairly high yards per catch since obviously that's a sign of speed -- but check if that's distorted by a single long catch. I sort WRs in the free agent pool very heavily by the target stats. Make up a small list of the guys you are interested in then study those players -- you can't waste time studying everyone. Get the list by using the top 10-15 free agent players in targets then add anyone you've seen a writeup on that you think might be worth considering if they are not already included. It helps you to sort out who you want to concentrate on. Once you've narrowed the list to a few WRs, you can look at the strength of schedule and see if that gives one of the top choices an edge.No doubt luck plays a huge role but depth is not a product of luck, but diligence. You can't control if Marshall Faulk broke his hand but you can control whether you've been constantly backfilling your roster with the best players available. Assuming you've filled your starting positions, always try to throw a couple of roster spots at breakout candidates -- you can always pick up a journeyman to fill a spot if you are short but if a DeShawn Foster type gets the starting nod it'll be too late to get him when the news is out, unless you are drafting first in the waiver claims. He should already be tucked on someone's roster.

 

[blue42]

I think we've got to get over this luck thing. So many people bring it up, but the simple truth is this - if luck is such a big factor, why do the same guys get "lucky" year after year???There's more to it than that.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I think we've got to get over this luck thing. So many people bring it up, but the simple truth is this - if luck is such a big factor, why do the same guys get "lucky" year after year???There's more to it than that.

Yes, there's more to it than luck, but to deny it's presence is wrong also. What a good FF player does is try to decrease the effect of luck on his team - by having depth, being ahead of the curve on FAs, making shrewd trades, etc... That's how some guys seem to get "lucky" more than others.In H2H leagues, you cannot control what your opponent's players do - that's luck. You cannot control the fact that Marvin Harrison pulls a hamstring. This is a guy that never gets hurt - that's luck.

 

[Drof]

Hard work keeps you in it. Luck lets you win it. Drof

 

[Oils_well]

8. Ability to understand your league and develop draft strategy and a roster management strategy accordingly.I would guess that your average ff'er is not very good at or unaware of #'s 2, 3, 6 and 8.

I think this is as important as any of the others good point

 

[Roaring Lamb]

Luck has very little to do with fantasy football.A better way to look at it is there is uncertainty in fantasy football. Because of this uncertainty, as in the NFL, anything can happen on any given Sunday. However, as the games and seasons mount skill becomes the dominant factor. I'm sure that there are many examples of good teams or good FFers having bad years, this is not unexpected basedon uncertainty. The origional post identified that the same coaches were at the top of the league year after year, this is skill not luck.One area I did not see identified as a skill to win at FF is having a differant view (of all the FF inputs to decision making) than the rest of your league. An example would be a coach who does his own projections before the draft with the same statistical charactoristics (quality) as the projections used by the rest of the coaches in the league. In this example if one player is using an equivellant (but differant) cheat sheet and the rest of the league are all using very similar cheat sheet; then the one who is using a differant cheatsheet will find more value as the draft progresses.

 

[komments]

In no particular order:

1. Knowledge of NFL players/news

2. Ability to spot talent

3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly

4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)

5. Luck

6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics

7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW

I agree with much of this post but I would add that it helps to have a knowledge of schemes and what they mean when your players are facing them. I also rely on trends though they don't always come through. DirecTV has a couple of shows (Sounds of the Game, Playbook and Inside Access) that are all VERY helpful. Try coaching a youth team - it will show you a lot about what works and what doesn't. Get a book on Football from your library. A lot of people think they know the game from watching TV but in reality they couldn't tell you the difference between a cover two and 8 in the box or what it means to your players.For instance, why do teams never put 8 men in the box against the Rams? Or the Chiefs?

Answer: Because these teams routinely use three and four WRs. No NFL defense is going to play without at least one safety deep. Three wides forces one safety to match up with the third wide and the other safety now has to play deep.

I believe understanding the game makes a tremendous difference to success levels. But I also believe solid drafts combined with good management makes the difference. Don't trade for a guy who is about to face the toughest part of his schedule. Look at upcoming schedule before making any trade. Always strive to improve your roster - for instance, two players that helped me in various leagues were Anquan Boldin and Domanick Davis - neither were drafted in my leagues. Boldin I picked up after a huge week one. Davis I picked up while he was on Bye when Capers would not say Mack would continue to be the starter. I didn't get them in every league, but the ones I did, they helped me. But even getting a guy like David Givens or Dante Hall could have paid dividends. Watch the target numbers for WRs and TEs. Watch the Prime Scoring Opportunities for RBs.

Always be open to trades but don't give players away. Some people will only do a trade if they believe it is heavily weighted in their favor - consequently they don't do a lot of trading. Look to trade from a strength to shore up a weakness. During the season, depth is key. During the playoffs, your starting lineup is everything.

 

[Family Matters]

Luck: When preparation and opportunity meet. You can't count on luck. You draft to put your team in a position to win. Draft good players, top to bottom, that fit your leagues scoring system. Most leagues vary in how they score. Understanding how your scoring system works is crucial to picking players that fit that system best. Eg, in a touchdown only league, players that rack up yards but do not score often are not as effective as they would be in a yardage league that counts receptions. This is only a small part of winning consistently but I find in leagues I've played in that some owners draft players without regard to the scoring system.

 

[smlevin]

And, on a related note:

overall scoring versus H2H - which takes more skill?

 

[cracKer]

"Because fantasy football is a game of skill, not chance...."That's the reason given for the growing support from the NFL, when some would view it as support of gambling.

 

[Chaz]

Trusting your preparation is important. I am not one to chase the flavor of the week. I spent several months in preparing for my draft/auction. I am not going to make any "panic" moves if my players aren't panning out in the first couple of weeks.This may sound a little wierd, but it has helped me either make or not make certain moves: When faced with a decision to either obtain, or move, a certain player, ask yourself how you would feel if (insert name of talented, hated, competitor here) did it? Sometimes it takes a risky move to bring your team to the top. Many teams will finish withing a few games of each other due to scheduling flukes, "career" weeks, kicker and defense quirks... It's those moves above and beyond what the rest of the league are thinking that could win the thing for you.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Boomer Esiason mentioned THE key to winning today during a pregame story on FF."Be the commissioner of your league so you can get the first pick!" :rolleyesandputaguntoyourheadthatBoomercouldbesoignorant:

 

[9664]

One somewhat nit-picky thing that I don't think has been mentioned is preparation for the actual draft itself. I bring a pen and two pieces of paper: One is a grid that I use to track the ENTIRE draft, the other is a one-page cheat sheet (3 columns, small type) that has every player I could potentially choose ranked by position. I have never made a position-integrated cheat sheet because I think how the draft shakes out can render it meaningless (ie. a huge run on RB's), and you're usually choosing between two positions at most anyway, and often the answer is pretty clear. As far as gridding out the entire draft, I can't stress enough how helpful it is as a tool to be able to figure out what your opponents are doing. In my last draft, I picked 2nd overall, and being able to see what the guy who had 1st overall had on his roster and to be able to anticipate his moves helped me greatly when figuring out who to choose and who to let slip for my next pick. Little things: Make sure the cell phone is off, make sure you've taken a leak before the draft has started, don't drink heavily, etc. etc. Anal, sure, but this is the hand you're gonna be playing with for the next 4 months.Also:1) Don't overload with too many leagues. I never do more than 3 just because I can't devote enough time to cover them all, and it's easy to confuse who's on the waiver wires in various leagues, etc. I'd rather devote more time to kicking the ###es of my friends, anyway. 2) ALWAYS check your lineups Sunday morning. It sucks on the West Coast (even moreso for Hawaii!), but having a WR or an RB put up a goose-egg is worse. I'd say the Sunday morning crew wins an average of 1-1.5 games more than the sleepyheads during the course of a given year. I won a league this year on the strength of a Sunday, 9 AM (Pacific) substitution (Foster over DDavis).Be Prepared!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Don't waste any of your first 10 picks on a tight end.DO pickup a quality quarterback after you have your RBs and 2 WRs covered. This is widely considered VBD heresy (sp?), but it works for me. Luck comes into play mostly because the wide receivers you get at WR3, WR4, etc. are going to be scrubs 90% of the time. My starting WR3 turned out to be Justin McCareins picked at 20.08 after wasting earlier picks on the likes of Quincy Morgan, Jerry Porter, etc.

 

[ravnzfan]

knowing how you league tends to draft plays a big part...in my $$$ redraft, several of the guys have hard-ons for stud QB's...have at it boys, is what I say...this leaves serious talent at other positions, so I WAIT...WAIT...WAIT for a QBI had faith in the Priest returning to form from injury, so I took him #1 overall, in a 12 team league...Freddie Taylor sitting there at 2.12, so I grab him and his 1400+ yds, along w/Garner(we start 2RB+2flex...up to 4 RB's)Barlow in the 4th, and Boston 5th...Hillard/TGreen on the next turn...plus Betts,Staley and Gordon and Collinstraded Barlow/Garner for Moss....can you say SB this weekend?the point...knowing the way these guys go QB heavy, I loadup at position players and HAPPILY take the #11-13 QB, as #'s 8-15 are only 1-2 points/gm apartbut this is really only VBD princilpes at work...thanx Joe!

 

[smlevin]

Don't waste any of your first 10 picks on a tight end.

I agreed with everything you said except this. Don't forget "what makes someone skilled at FF" does not automatically equate into skippnig on Gonzo, Heap and Shockey. Debate all you want in a separate thread - but, I won my last two Super Bowls, skillfully, and in a large part b/c last year I had Heap and this year I had Gonzo - both selected well before the 10th round.I'd say a more accurate skill-based statement is "don't blindly follow generalizations - such as always go RB-RB to start, or don't ever take a TE earl, or always draft K last." Those are GENERALLY good to teach the masses how to play - but, SKILL is flexible and doesn't blindly follow ANY rule.

 

[smlevin]

I’ve actually thought about giving up this extremely frustrating hobby, as it’s currently causing more harm that good. When I look at the same people winning every year, I realize that there’s no “luck” involved - these guys have skill. I see guys everywhere that took McNabb, R. Williams, and Faulk in the 1st round that are killing the competition. That doesn’t look like luck to me….

It isn't luck for them - their skill is paying off. But there is luck factored into it. If you keep striking out with your WW picks and your drafts, something is wrong with your skills, and you need to work on that. However, if you continue to assemble good teams, but just miss the playoffs each year, or get close to the trophy, but not the win, then continue to gut this out until the luck turns.Ten years my league's been going - first two-three years we were all novices. Next four-five years, my teams continually missed the playoffs but were right on the cusp of getting in, or my strong team would lose in the first round to a surprise team. Frustrating - and those surprise teams, and teams that were beating me out for the playoffs, were turning into annual contendors. Then (sounding like an ad here), three years ago, I discovered FBGuys - the site focused my thinking a bit on how I was drafting, I learned VBD, and all its permutations, I analyzed how I was making WW analysis, and I focused on a few other things, including statistical analysis of players during the season rather than the "he sucks" thought pattern. Eddie Kennison's TD is worth just as much as Koren Robinson's TD - those two players have similar numbers on the year, but one was drafted in the first 6 rounds and the other was a WW find/late, late draft pick - on any given week, the two cancel each other out on opposing rosters.I now control my luck. I won Super Bowls back to back after appearing in the S.B. for the first time three years ago. My skills haven't significantly changed, but they are now focused properly, and I end up being "correct" with draft picks, WW moves, and matchup analysis/starter decisions a good 75-80% of the time. This increases my confidence in my decisions, and allows me to confidently stick with the plans I make. These attributes go a long way to overcoming the "bad luck" factor (but they still aren't guarantees you'll get the trophy).I pray that my fellow leaguemates are thinking they simply have been having bad luck for the last couple of years and I have been having good luck, because if they realized how far ahead of them my skills now are, they'd ban me. <<just kidding of course - but, I had to throw that in there>>

 

[BGP]

I'd say a more accurate skill-based statement is "don't blindly follow generalizations - such as always go RB-RB to start, or don't ever take a TE earl, or always draft K last." Those are GENERALLY good to teach the masses how to play - but, SKILL is flexible and doesn't blindly follow ANY rule.

That's something one might tell the opposition if one were the type of person to try to deceive them. I would just quote Dennis Hopper in "Speed" and say, "Oh I wish I had some loftier purpose Jack! But in the end, its just about the RBs."In a 12 team redraft league following the "normal" formats, this is the way to go. No reason to make it complicated, really. Trade around so that you pick twice in the top 15 or 16 and have at it!