In a given season, I think a typical good owner can easily be more than a 2-1 favorite -- maybe more than a 3-1 favorite -- over a typical bad owner to win the championship.
In a twelve-team legue, I'd say a good owner may have a 15% shot while a bad owner has a 5% shot.
It seems like fantasy football takes a lot of luck because 15% is still not very much: you can play many, many years without taking home the trophy. But in the grand scheme of things, being a 3-1 favorite means that the skill-luck ratio is pretty high. (To compare it to chess, which is obviously mostly skill and very little luck, a player with an 1800 rating would be a 3-1 favorite over a player with a 1600 rating.)
In a twelve-team legue, I'd say a good owner may have a 15% shot while a bad owner has a 5% shot.
It seems like fantasy football takes a lot of luck because 15% is still not very much: you can play many, many years without taking home the trophy. But in the grand scheme of things, being a 3-1 favorite means that the skill-luck ratio is pretty high. (To compare it to chess, which is obviously mostly skill and very little luck, a player with an 1800 rating would be a 3-1 favorite over a player with a 1600 rating.)
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