What players are going to go higher/lower than everyone thinks in the Draft? (1 Viewer)

[FunkyPlutos]

I've seen a ton of mock drafts and done a bunch of simulated drafts and the first round and beginning of the second round seems pretty set.

Are there any players that will be surprise first round picks or will slide into the third round when everyone thought they should be in the first?

Yes, I'm really bored but thought it would be fun to see what people think...

• Xavier McKinney might not go until the 3rd round - some have him in the top 20
  
• Jonathan Greenard might sneak into the first round or top of the 2nd round. I like what he brings to the table as an Edge rusher.
  

 

[Ilov80s]

My surprise sliders are Grant Delpit and Cam Akers. Delpit has a bad reputation for not liking contact and while teams may live with that at CB, I don’t think they want that in a safety. I can see this being similar to what happened with Greedy last year. As for Cam, it’s just a supply/demand issue. There’s 4-6 backs who I could see being ranked ahead of him and there’s not many teams with major needs at the already devalued position.

 

[Mongidig]

Since there were no pro days and beat writers aren't allowed in the facilities there is a big knowledge gap. We aren't hearing as many quality rumors. I think there will be a lot of surprises in the draft. The internet has it's consensus but it's based on very limited information. I think a guy like Isaiah Simmons could fall because we are not sure how teams see his fit. He's obviously a great talent but teams may see another player fitting in better. It will be interesting just how interested teams are in Jordan Love. If teams move up to get him that could skew things. 

I need to look a little closer but I think this could be a weird draft.

 

[Ilov80s]

Riser: Ezra Cleveland. I just think a team is going to fall in love with his upside. He’s one of those Madden Create a Player specimens and I think he will be the 5th OT and will go between 18-25. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Since there were no pro days and beat writers aren't allowed in the facilities there is a big knowledge gap. We aren't hearing as many quality rumors. I think there will be a lot of surprises in the draft. The internet has it's consensus but it's based on very limited information. I think a guy like Isaiah Simmons could fall because we are not sure how teams see his fit. He's obviously a great talent but teams may see another player fitting in better. It will be interesting just how interested teams are in Jordan Love. If teams move up to get him that could skew things. 

I need to look a little closer but I think this could be a weird draft.

Simmons definitely could slip to 10-15. The tweener label, the fact that he’s a linebacker who doesn’t pass rush which isn’t a high value position and without OTSs and minicamps this year, Simmons might be a guy is more challenging to find playing time for in year 1.

 

[Mongidig]

Simmons definitely could slip to 10-15. The tweener label, the fact that he’s a linebacker who doesn’t pass rush which isn’t a high value position and without OTSs and minicamps this year, Simmons might be a guy is more challenging to find playing time for in year 1.

I agree! There are some scouts who have Kenneth Murray ahead of him because he has a more defined role. I think the Giants will pass on him for O lineman. If he fell to 10 I could see my Broncos make a big play to move up for him. We have lacked speed at LB for a long time. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree! There are some scouts who have Kenneth Murray ahead of him because he has a more defined role. I think the Giants will pass on him for O lineman. If he fell to 10 I could see my Broncos make a big play to move up for him. We have lacked speed at LB for a long time. 

Maybe but Denver also seems very likely to go for a WR in the first. 

 

[Mongidig]

Maybe but Denver also seems very likely to go for a WR in the first. 

They want Ruggs for sure. If there was a way to get Simmons and still be able to trade up and grab somebody like Denzel Mims that would be sick. I have no clue if that's even possible. The problem with Simmons falling is that it wouldn't only be the Broncos looking to move up. It's probably not gonna happen. They probably will end up with one of the big 3 WR's. I don't know if they would move up for one. With a probable no off season workout schedule this year picking a WR is not as attractive. That being said, we need one bad.

 

[Ilov80s]

Oh, I also am firmly on team Jalen Hurts to New England at the end of Rd 1. 

 

[ICON211]

I think Winfield is the best safety in the draft and will go in the teens and I think Mims will be a first round pick.  That's probably as little higher than both are expected to go.

 

[Anarchy99]

Oh, I also am firmly on team Jalen Hurts to New England at the end of Rd 1. 

LOL. I have seen at least a half dozen mocks with NE taking Hurts . . . in the third round. 

 

[Ack88]

No first round picks with be a running back.

Not the most risky predication but I still see a number of mocks with Swift and or Taylor going at the back end. I don't think it's going to happen. No real special talents in a deep overall player pool.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

I think this is a great question.  Mocking is almost impossible.  If one thing works out wrong (ie JAX trades up for QB), your entire mock falls apart.

Risers:

- Jedric Wills - Could see him going top 6

- Tee Higgins will go round 1.  I see him mocked in 2 by the experts

- CJ Henderson top 10

- Jacob Eason.  Might be round 1.

- I think James Morgan is a huge sleeper  Last I saw he is projected 5th round.  Definitely could see him going 3-4 round.

Droppers

- I think one of Tua or Hebert will fall into the 9+ range.  No idea which one though.  Likely Hebert if MIA and LAC pass on him.  It could be a huge Aaron Rodgers like fall

- Kristian Fulton - out of top 25

- Bryan Edwards - was a Rd 1 WR at one point.  I'm thinking late 2nd due to INJs

- Bryce Hall - UVA CB was playing well, but same as Edwards.  INJs

 

[Ilov80s]

LOL. I have seen at least a half dozen mocks with NE taking Hurts . . . in the third round. 

I just don’t see how he falls that far. He’s -105 to go 2nd round. So it’s more likely he goes late round 2 but I just think QB value is massive and getting that 5th year option is crucial. Especially after how good Lamar Jackson did, I think someone pounces late round 1.

 

[Anarchy99]

I just don’t see how he falls that far. He’s -105 to go 2nd round. So it’s more likely he goes late round 2 but I just think QB value is massive and getting that 5th year option is crucial. Especially after how good Lamar Jackson did, I think someone pounces late round 1.

I doubt NE takes a QB in the first round. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I doubt NE takes a QB in the first round. 

Sure but this is also where we say what we think will happen that’s against consensus. 

 

[MAC_32]

Jacob Eason.  Might be round 1.

:X

 

[Brunell4MVP]

:X

Might was well take a real leap of faith. Otherwise what's the point.    

 

[JohnnyU]

Ruggs will be over drafted in both the NFL and fantasy.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Tua seems to be dropping like a rock. One time #1 that went to the 3-6 range, now could drop even further.

 

[Jail]

LOL. I have seen at least a half dozen mocks with NE taking Hurts . . . in the third round. 

I used to hope that the Chargers would grab him in round 3 if they went OT in the 1st,  but it looks less likely that he will still be there even for the Chargers pick.  Hurts is one of the 58 guys that will be part of the draft, so I won't be shocked to see him sneak into the 1st.  That would be too high imo,  but we never know. 

 

[Jail]

Ruggs will be over drafted in both the NFL and fantasy.

I think Ruggs is one of those guys that is far more valuable to the NFL team than a fantasy team. 

 

[Ilov80s]

No first round picks with be a running back.

I agree here. It seems unlikely imo. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I used to hope that the Chargers would grab him in round 3 if they went OT in the 1st,  but it looks less likely that he will still be there even for the Chargers pick.  Hurts is one of the 58 guys that will be part of the draft, so I won't be shocked to see him sneak into the 1st.  That would be too high imo,  but we never know. 

I’m not sure what I’m missing with Hurts. He looks like a first round prospect to me. What’s not to like? If Trubisky, Rosen and Allen were top 15 picks, how do people think Hurts falls to the 3rd? A very good team just put a 1st round tender on Taysom Hill!

 

[MAC_32]

I’m not sure what I’m missing with Hurts. He looks like a first round prospect to me. What’s not to like? If Trubisky, Rosen and Allen were top 15 picks, how do people think Hurts falls to the 3rd? A very good team just put a 1st round tender on Taysom Hill!

Justifying one poor assessment because of other prior poor assessments is bad process. But there is also very little logical about the quarterback process.

I am not going to forecast when I think Hurts will go. I'll just say I do not think he should go in round 1.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I’m not sure what I’m missing with Hurts. He looks like a first round prospect to me. What’s not to like? If Trubisky, Rosen and Allen were top 15 picks, how do people think Hurts falls to the 3rd? A very good team just put a 1st round tender on Taysom Hill!

You're not missing anything. I don't get why Love gets so much...err, love...based on his "potential" where Hurts gets ignored for actually doing it for two different teams.

And I say that fully expecting Love to go in the first.

 

[Ilov80s]

Justifying one poor assessment because of other prior poor assessments is bad process. But there is also very little logical about the quarterback process.

I am not going to forecast when I think Hurts will go. I'll just say I do not think he should go in round 1.

Those might not even be bad processes. Buffalo likes Josh Allen. I’m seriously asking what box Hurts doesn’t check? 

69.7% completion, 11.3 YPA, 32/8 with 1200/20 rushing 

70.5% completion, 11.5 YPA, 43/6 with 300/5 rushing 

69% completion, 11.6 YPA, 42/7 with 1000/12

These are 3 QBs from the same program 3 years in a row. Two of them go 1st overall and then the one with the most prototypical NFL size is going to fall to late 2nd? I don’t see it.

 

[BoltBacker]

No first round picks with be a running back.

I like this one.

I'll match with no S taken in the first round.

And no TE taken until day 3 of the draft. 

I just don't think anyone is "special" at any of those positions. There are actually several of each I would be interested in on day 3 though.

 

[MAC_32]

Those might not even be bad processes. Buffalo likes Josh Allen. I’m seriously asking what box Hurts doesn’t check? 

69.7% completion, 11.3 YPA, 32/8 with 1200/20 rushing 

70.5% completion, 11.5 YPA, 43/6 with 300/5 rushing 

69% completion, 11.6 YPA, 42/7 with 1000/12

These are 3 QBs from the same program 3 years in a row. Two of them go 1st overall and then the one with the most prototypical NFL size is going to fall to late 2nd? I don’t see it.

Some had already suspected this, but I think sample #3 confirmed that it's more Lincoln Riley than anything else. Right or wrong, the Alabama version of Hurts consumes me. Not that he was bad, but that he was just a good college QB...as long as his role remained minimized. A lot of that carried over to his one year in Oklahoma. I think he could be a very strong backup, but he needs substantial development to potentially become a (risky) starter. I don't think you can build a franchise around a guy who plays as off-script as he does. 

Don't get me wrong, Lincoln Riley can still develop franchise QB's. I just think you need to examine them even more thoroughly. The numbers will be there. But why are they there will tell the story. In Hurts' case it was (written with some hyperbole) read one, throw it somewhere near CeeDee, or run and see what happens.

 

[MAC_32]

You're not missing anything. I don't get why Love gets so much...err, love...based on his "potential" where Hurts gets ignored for actually doing it for two different teams.

And I say that fully expecting Love to go in the first.

Hurts is a substantially better prospect than Love. That's more to do with Love than Hurts though. Maybe the NFL will prove him right, but I think he should have grad transferred to a major program for one year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Some had already suspected this, but I think sample #3 confirmed that it's more Lincoln Riley than anything else. Right or wrong, the Alabama version of Hurts consumes me. Not that he was bad, but that he was just a good college QB...as long as his role remained minimized. A lot of that carried over to his one year in Oklahoma. I think he could be a very strong backup, but he needs substantial development to potentially become a (risky) starter. I don't think you can build a franchise around a guy who plays as off-script as he does. 

Don't get me wrong, Lincoln Riley can still develop franchise QB's. I just think you need to examine them even more thoroughly. The numbers will be there. But why are they there will tell the story. In Hurts' case it was (written with some hyperbole) read one, throw it somewhere near CeeDee, or run and see what happens.

FYI those stats I listed were in the order of Hurts, Baker, Kyler. Kyler was so small and he had the Riley system, Lamb and Hollywood Brown! On top of that, people are super high on Murray after year 1. I get the system produces big numbers but it’s also producing NFL QBs. It’s just a weird disconnect that doesn’t make sense to me.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Re: The QBs

I think we're finally seeing the NFL wise up a bit and tailor the offense to the player instead of vice versa. Jackson, Murray, Watson, Mahomes and Wilson don't look like the "prototypical" QB. But their coaches have figured out how to make it work for their skills. A lot of coaches aren't innovative enough to make that work though (I'm looking at you, Mike Zimmer).

 

[Soulfly3]

Ruggs my 'drop' of the first round. Too much smoke for a 700yd WR. 

Goes in the 1st still probably, just later than expected. 

 

[travdogg]

I agree here. It seems unlikely imo. 

I'd be shocked if Taylor wasn't a 1st rounder. I wouldn't personally take him there, but some team is going to fall in love with that size/speed combo and his production, and be willing to overlook his 1 dimensional nature. Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Ravens, all make some sense to me.

On the flip side, I'll say Cam Akers doesn't go until day 3, and isn't a top-5 RB off the board. I think fantasy community likes him way more than the NFL does.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'd be shocked if Taylor wasn't a 1st rounder. I wouldn't personally take him there, but some team is going to fall in love with that size/speed combo and his production, and be willing to overlook his 1 dimensional nature. Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Ravens, all make some sense to me.

On the flip side, I'll say Cam Akers doesn't go until day 3, and isn't a top-5 RB off the board. I think fantasy community likes him way more than the NFL does.

Interesting. You can make some money on that Taylor thought. Vegas has him expected to be over 37.5. I wonder what the line for him as the first RB is?

 

[travdogg]

Guys who will go higher than people think:

Jake Fromm(round 2, top-5 QB), Jonathan Taylor(round 1, 1st RB), Lynn Bowden(round 2, top-10 WR), Albert Ogwuegbunam(round 2, 1st TE), Lucas Niang(round 3), Matt Hennessy(round 2, 1st IOL) , Bradlee Anae(round 2) Jordan Elliott(round 2) Logan Wilson(round 2) Troy Pride(2/3 turn) Ashtyn Davis(round 2 #3rd S)

Guys who will go lower:

Jacob Eason(round 3), Cam Akers(round 4, not a top-5 RB), Devin Duvernay(4/5 turn), Harrison Bryant(round 4, not a top-5 TE), Prince Wanagho(round 3), Netane Muti(round 5) Anfernee Jennings(round 5) Javon Kinlaw(late 1st, closer to Blacklock than Brown) Troy Dye(4/5 turn) Cameron Dantzler(round 5) Jeremy Chinn(round 3)

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I think the top 3 WR go later than expected. The class is deep at the position so I think that, while all 3 will still go in the first, it won't be in the top 15 like everyone thinks. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think the top 3 WR go later than expected. The class is deep at the position so I think that, while all 3 will still go in the first, it won't be in the top 15 like everyone thinks. 

Total I heard for 1st round is 5.5. I would go under just because everyone can wait longer due to the depth at WR.

 

[massraider]

Isaiah Simmons "falls".

There's only like 2 spots for him in the top 10.  OT is a more valuable position than a SS.

Edge rushers climb.  Bad edge class? Who cares, people reach for EDGE every. single. year.

 

[Buckna]

Since there were no pro days and beat writers aren't allowed in the facilities there is a big knowledge gap. We aren't hearing as many quality rumors. I think there will be a lot of surprises in the draft. The internet has it's consensus but it's based on very limited information. I think a guy like Isaiah Simmons could fall because we are not sure how teams see his fit. He's obviously a great talent but teams may see another player fitting in better. It will be interesting just how interested teams are in Jordan Love. If teams move up to get him that could skew things. 

I need to look a little closer but I think this could be a weird draft.

I agree, I think there are going to be picks that will look like real head scratchers and supposed "studs" that will really drop. I also think the prospects that are considered the "safest" at their positions are going to rise. It's going to be a tough year in hindsight where there will probably be a lot of early busts and late round gems due to the lack of information.

 

[Buckna]

No first round picks with be a running back.

Not the most risky predication but I still see a number of mocks with Swift and or Taylor going at the back end. I don't think it's going to happen. No real special talents in a deep overall player pool.

I could easily be wrong, but I am going to go the opposite. I think 2 go in the first and a big run in the 2nd as well. With the lack of interviews and overall lack of information, and the big questions on what, if any, practicing will get done... I think some teams are going to go RB's since they generally have an easier time of transitioning and making impacts in their rookie years.

 

[massraider]

I agree, I think there are going to be picks that will look like real head scratchers and supposed "studs" that will really drop. I also think the prospects that are considered the "safest" at their positions are going to rise. It's going to be a tough year in hindsight where there will probably be a lot of early busts and late round gems due to the lack of information.

There will be a bunch of people yapping about reaches after the draft. I will ignore all of that. Most everyone is going by consensus mocks, and you can see the same thing happen here.

Ezra Cleveland will not be a reach, because the rumor got out, and we all get a chance to get used to it.  If none of us had heard about him, and the Browns took him after a trade down (as has been rumored), everyone wold be LOL'ing like a bunch of donkeys.

But the same few guys who have actual information drop a nugget, and all the draft sites that have no real contacts adjust their boards.  

Jeremiah and Zierlien mention a guy, and then you see these draft sites react.

 

[BoltBacker]

Guys who will go higher than people think:

Jake Fromm(round 2, top-5 QB), Jonathan Taylor(round 1, 1st RB), Lynn Bowden(round 2, top-10 WR), Albert Ogwuegbunam(round 2, 1st TE), Lucas Niang(round 3), Matt Hennessy(round 2, 1st IOL) , Bradlee Anae(round 2) Jordan Elliott(round 2) Logan Wilson(round 2) Troy Pride(2/3 turn) Ashtyn Davis(round 2 #3rd S)

Guys who will go lower:

Jacob Eason(round 3), Cam Akers(round 4, not a top-5 RB), Devin Duvernay(4/5 turn), Harrison Bryant(round 4, not a top-5 TE), Prince Wanagho(round 3), Netane Muti(round 5) Anfernee Jennings(round 5) Javon Kinlaw(late 1st, closer to Blacklock than Brown) Troy Dye(4/5 turn) Cameron Dantzler(round 5) Jeremy Chinn(round 3)

I don't agree with all of these, but I like the idea of calling your shots.

Where have you seen Niang going in mocks? Round 3 doesn't seem high to me.

If you really believe that Albert Ogwuegbunam call you should make a bet in Las Vegas because that is a real lotto ticket imo. I just don't see it at all. Gutsy call.

 

[Biabreakable]

No first round picks with be a running back.

Not the most risky predication but I still see a number of mocks with Swift and or Taylor going at the back end. I don't think it's going to happen. No real special talents in a deep overall player pool.

This is an interesting and not entirely unrealistic prognostication.

There are only two draft classes since the merger that did not have a RB selected in the 1st round. 2013 and 2014.

The draft capital invested in the position has been in steady decline since the 90;s and the two drafts that didn't have a RB selected first round are more recent. So it may happen again soon, if the capital investment does continue to decline.

It is a bold prediction to me however because the RB talent of 2020 is much better than the RB talent of 2013 and 2014.

I think overall the 2020 draft class is stronger than those drafts for skill players, which could push some 1st round talents at RB into the 2nd round, but I would still guess that at least Taylor is a first round pick. In a weaker overall draft I think the top 3 RB would be 1st round picks.

 

[massraider]

This is an interesting and not entirely unrealistic prognostication.

There are only two draft classes since the merger that did not have a RB selected in the 1st round. 2013 and 2014.

The draft capital invested in the position has been in steady decline since the 90;s and the two drafts that didn't have a RB selected first round are more recent. So it may happen again soon, if the capital investment does continue to decline.

It is a bold prediction to me however because the RB talent of 2020 is much better than the RB talent of 2013 and 2014.

I think overall the 2020 draft class is stronger than those drafts for skill players, which could push some 1st round talents at RB into the 2nd round, but I would still guess that at least Taylor is a first round pick. In a weaker overall draft I think the top 3 RB would be 1st round picks.

Piggybacking on this:

The fact that this first round has WR, CB, OT, and QB doesn't leave much room for RB. 

Premium positions

 

[travdogg]

I don't agree with all of these, but I like the idea of calling your shots.

Where have you seen Niang going in mocks? Round 3 doesn't seem high to me.

If you really believe that Albert Ogwuegbunam call you should make a bet in Las Vegas because that is a real lotto ticket imo. I just don't see it at all. Gutsy call.

Usually round 4 for Niang. I tried to have one at every position, and OT was probably the toughest call for both high and low.

 

[Jayded]

A guy I’m pretty confident surprises many by going higher is Chase Claypool. He’s got the size and hands a team will covet and ran 4.42 at the combine at almost 240 lbs. I think someone takes him ahead of at least one of the top 4-5 guys that surprise many by sliding. 
 

Given the QBs and WRs suspected to dominate the top rounds, I have to think this is a good year to need LB/CB/S as I’ll bet the value slides. As a Texans fan, we need CBs and I can see a first round guy slide to us at 40 because of the depth position runs I expect. 

 

[Bankerguy]

Higher than expected - Jefferson. 
 

Faller - Grant Delpit