What to do with the freaking 4 pick in the next week! (1 Viewer)

[RabidRabbit]

I guess this is really a rank your RB list after LJ/SAlex/LT.

Can not go Manning, no way, no how -- right?

No WR is ever worth a top 5 pick.

Portis/Tiki/SJax/R Brown? This pick is frustrating me and I'm treating it like a season maker/breaker. It probably won't do any of that, yet still I want solid top 10 production and I have a reason for not liking each of these guys.

That's where this post is different I guess, which of these guys do you see as the worst evil. The most likely not to bomb their way to a sub top-15 positional ranking.

Portis: : bum shoulder for a couple weeks. Still you have to think that hits to that shoulder in the regular season are going to take a toll. Goalline carries are not going to go to him. Schedule is less than average.

Tiki: Over 30 years old. Lots of carries. Coming off career years. No chance for the TD from 3 yrds and in. Schedule, see Portis'.

SJax: Tough schedule. But still gets SF and Zona twice. Although I think Zona was pretty good against the run for fantasy points allowed (of course Dansby is hurt). Plus SJax has been pretty much a wuss in his young career, dinged, etc. The one thing I love is that he's in a good offense and will get touches if he's healthy. Plus he finished in the top 12 last year and was not looked at often enough last year with Martz at the helm. So getting in the top 10 with the new coach and more focus on the running game "should" give him a guarantee at top 10 numbers, no?

Brown: Great coaching scheme. Easy schedule. BAD offensive line. Plus, if Culpepper goes down, see Kevin Jones and his production with Harrington at the helm. That almost scares me to think about avoiding Ronnie all together unless he's a second round pick. Plus all the baggage of him not carrying a full load at any level.

So what RB do you go to the well for? Tiki should get all the touches from the 10 yard line to the 10 yard line. But man does he get killed by the "expert" ranks. He just seems safer than Ronnie Brown. A couple of days ago I said SJax was going to be my pick.

Ideas?

Dropping out not an option. Maybe I'll just take Antonio Gates so I can get laughed at loudly and then not have to worry about what RB would have been top 10.

 

[Comb-Over Charlie]

Marshal Faulk said SJax would have 1500 yds and double digit TDs this year. I'd go with him.

 

[Chairshot]

I wouldn't worry about Barber's age. For alot of his younger years he didn't play every down. Plus, he has kept himself in great shape; he's never really had too many injury concerns.

I don't think you can go wrong with Barber, especially if you are in a PPR league.

 

[tangfoot]

Trade down.

 

[huckyoda]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?

Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

 

[Raskell5]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

It's not really a question, at 4 you take Tiki. Now if you had the 5 spot, that would be a PIA.

 

[tandl71]

Marshal Faulk said SJax would have 1500 yds and double digit TDs this year. I'd go with him.

What's he gonna say about a young teammate?"Ah, he'll probably get around 1100 yards and 7 TDs, but get hurt somewhere along the line..."

 

[Mooks77]

Portis will be fine. He's a freak, at least that is what his coach says here

 

[RabidRabbit]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

Can't go Peyton Manning b/c I'm a FG ditto head. Have to go RB in the 1st.Agreed age isn't an official category, nor is injuries per game. But they factor in to things.And while I agree that Tiki does not have the mileage say an E. Smith had when we was Tiki's age, there is no denying that our body's start to lose something physically at some pointand time. Steve Jackson at 1500 and 10 Td's makes him a lock for top 8 numbers. Faulk doesn't have to say that about him either. That is interesting. Faulk hasn't played in this offense, but I assume he is savvy enough of a football mind to know what he's talking about -- don't you think. I mean it is not like they asked Faulk to comment on how best to raise a family (oh that wasn't nice was it). In any respect, that's a good endorsement.

 

[Neo]

Portis will be fine. He's a freak, at least that is what his coach says here

Ernest Byner thinks Portis = Wolverine....excuse me for being skeptical, but what injuries has Portis magically healed with Byner around to make him state that? Coachspeak if you ask me.

 

[tangfoot]

Portis = Wolverine

excuse me for being skeptical, but what evidence do you have to tell me that his skeleton is NOT covered in adamantium?

 

[LordHusker]

I love how Rudi Johnson is always left out of these conversations. Makes ZERO sense.

 

[Neo]

Portis = Wolverine

excuse me for being skeptical, but what evidence do you have to tell me that his skeleton is NOT covered in adamantium?

Because he's really The New Batman

 

[Neo]

I love how Rudi Johnson is always left out of these conversations. Makes ZERO sense.

In a Non-PPR he is money IMO. People are sleeping on him.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

trade down if you can.

There's a bunch of RBs which are

ranked very closely from 4 through 8 or 9.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

 

[tangfoot]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

This is the kind of thing that makes me want to trade down.Why waste the #4 on this guy when you could trade down to #8 and get him there? Then you have two picks closer together, you got the guy you wanted, and you are sitting at the #4 slot in the 3rd round...

 

[PhillyFraud]

trade down if you can.There's a bunch of RBs which areranked very closely from 4 through 8 or 9.

Would you consider Manning at 4 if your League awarded six points per thrown TD?

 

[Trap Play]

I just read a burb that SJax is battling tendinitis in is heel. This and his propensity to get dinged worry me about him at 1.07 let alone 1.04.

I would take Tiki and not look back...

 

[tommyGunZ]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

This is the kind of thing that makes me want to trade down.Why waste the #4 on this guy when you could trade down to #8 and get him there? Then you have two picks closer together, you got the guy you wanted, and you are sitting at the #4 slot in the 3rd round...

GL trying to move down. The guys in the 6th-8th spots know exactly the same thing you and I know - and they aren't willing to trade up to get the #4 pick. At #4, you have to look at Tiki, Ronnie, SJax, and Edge, and pick which one you think is going to have the best year, rankings be damned, IMO.

 

[tommyGunZ]

trade down if you can.There's a bunch of RBs which areranked very closely from 4 through 8 or 9.

Would you consider Manning at 4 if your League awarded six points per thrown TD?

NO

 

[Keepers]

I like Portis but think he wil get a lot fewer carries this year with him already hurting ... rumors that Wash is shopping for another RB (like Duckett) says they may be looking to split the load.

Just can't see taking Tiki at the 4 pick as believe the Giants are serious that he will not be getting goal line touches.

I am leaning towards SJax at the 4 pick as believe he is going to be a huge part of the STL offense this year both rushing and receiving.

Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside and could have a huge year but durability is questionable as he has never carried the full load, even in college.

I agree that Rudi is under the radar and as a top 10 guy he is often overlooked but his total lack of receiving yards eliminates him from consideration at the 4 pick, even in non ppr leagues, IMO.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside and could have a huge year but durability is questionable as he has never carried the full load, even in college.

I'm admittedly higher on Brown than most, but I don't buy this argument against him. Brown has outstanding size, and doesn't have a history of injuries. Just because he hasn't had to carry a full load is not indicative of Brown's ability to do so.In fact, Brown's low mileage can be seen as a positive - one can argue that Brown's legs should be fresher than any other stud RB's legs in the league.

 

[arrow1]

I had the four pick a few days ago in a 12 team redraft league. The top 3 were: LJ, SA, LT. There I sat with the #4 and I went with SJAX.

 

[Keepers]

Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside and could have a huge year but durability is questionable as he has never carried the full load, even in college.

I'm admittedly higher on Brown than most, but I don't buy this argument against him. Brown has outstanding size, and doesn't have a history of injuries. Just because he hasn't had to carry a full load is not indicative of Brown's ability to do so.In fact, Brown's low mileage can be seen as a positive - one can argue that Brown's legs should be fresher than any other stud RB's legs in the league.

I like him just after SJax as believe durability won't be a problem but think SJax is a little safer.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I had the four pick a few days ago in a 12 team redraft league. The top 3 were: LJ, SA, LT. There I sat with the #4 and I went with SJAX.

Nothing wrong with SJax at 4.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside and could have a huge year but durability is questionable as he has never carried the full load, even in college.

I'm admittedly higher on Brown than most, but I don't buy this argument against him. Brown has outstanding size, and doesn't have a history of injuries. Just because he hasn't had to carry a full load is not indicative of Brown's ability to do so.In fact, Brown's low mileage can be seen as a positive - one can argue that Brown's legs should be fresher than any other stud RB's legs in the league.

I like him just after SJax as believe durability won't be a problem but think SJax is a little safer.

Agreed - I think SJax is a bit safer, albeit a lower ceiling, IMO. Again, I don't have a problem with Tiki, SJax, Brown, or Edge going 4, though I didn't really even consider Edge myself.

 

[arrow1]

I had the four pick a few days ago in a 12 team redraft league. The top 3 were: LJ, SA, LT. There I sat with the #4 and I went with SJAX.

Nothing wrong with SJax at 4.

 

[BoulderBob]

2005 Season Highlights

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiPabKEw0bU&mode=related&search=

The "Big Old Stone" - Great Video

www.youtube.com/watch?v=GynfSX0jGXI&mode=related&search=

 

[FatRader]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

This is the kind of thing that makes me want to trade down.Why waste the #4 on this guy when you could trade down to #8 and get him there? Then you have two picks closer together, you got the guy you wanted, and you are sitting at the #4 slot in the 3rd round...

If you have Tiki\Portis\SJax\Brown all rated the same, then sure - trade down if you can find another owner to trade up with.But there's nothing wrong with doing your research, favoring one of these guys, and grabbing him at 4.In situations like this, I'm always biased toward the younger guys. I like SJax and R Brown a little more than Tiki and Rudi (but would have gone w/ Portis here if not for the injury).

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

It's not really a question, at 4 you take Tiki. Now if you had the 5 spot, that would be a PIA.

I took Manning in the 5 spot in a 10 team guppy league and came back and got S.JaX and Westy with my next 2 picks.

 

[The Jerk]

Just can't see taking Tiki at the 4 pick as believe the Giants are serious that he will not be getting goal line touches.

Do this at your own peril. Last year, Tiki still finishes as a Top 6 RB even if you take away all of his TD.Or... take away 20% of his yards and drop his TDs from 11 to 6, and he still finishes Top 6.In 2004, Barber had 15 TDs:3 of 50+ yards2 of 4-9 yards4 of 3 yards (1 receiving)2 of 2 yards4 of 1 yardsIn 2005, Barber had 11 TDs:2 of 40+ yards4 of 12-21 yards4 of 4-6 yards (2 receiving)1 of 3 yardsThat's 5 TDs in 2004 and 10 TDs in 2005 from 4+ yards. Tiki doesn't need goalline scores to be an elite back. If you're thinking of staying away from Tiki, don't do it because you're afraid he's losing GL carries. He already lost them.My concerns for Tiki are his age and his schedule. However, he's had a lot fewer carries than most 31-year-old RBs (who he gets compared with) in his career. So that's not likely a problem either.I guess there's always a chance that this is the year he doesn't finish those long runs or receptions for TDs. Yet it's hard to believe he goes for anything less than 5 TDs given his long-range TDs for the past two seasons.

 

[hawaiiankrush]

REGGIE - REGGIE - REGGIE

 

[RabidRabbit]

This is some great help. Thanks.

SJax and Ronnie Brown are definitely guys I would look at. I too thought about trading down. But as someone pointed out, other owners will be looking at the same thing and will probably like their lower draft spot. And if you trade too low (like 9 or 10) you may miss out on SJAX/Ronnie/Tiki.

Damn the Portis injury. Loved the #4 spot before the wing was dinged.

Any chance at all that Ronnie Brown makes it back to me at 17?? I just can't even fathom that result. He's being hyped too much as a #1 draft choice (and for good reason). Just the fact that he didn't get big point totals last year makes me think maybe I could get him in round 2. For instance Tiki went late in round 2 last year. (Tiki had great #'s too boot). Julius Jones went late 2nd round too.

Kevin Jones though was a very late 1st rounder (#10 -- maybe he was the first pick in the 2nd round at 11). Thus someone bought the hype on K Jones last year, so Brown might have ZERO chance of going in the 2nd round.

Taking Tiki given the stat breakdown/information for TDs is interesting.

Top 6 even after cutting his stats significantly. Amazing that he is just not getting the overwhelming consideration as the #4 running back this year.

 

[tommyGunZ]

This is some great help. Thanks.SJax and Ronnie Brown are definitely guys I would look at. I too thought about trading down. But as someone pointed out, other owners will be looking at the same thing and will probably like their lower draft spot. And if you trade too low (like 9 or 10) you may miss out on SJAX/Ronnie/Tiki.Damn the Portis injury. Loved the #4 spot before the wing was dinged.Any chance at all that Ronnie Brown makes it back to me at 17?? I just can't even fathom that result. He's being hyped too much as a #1 draft choice (and for good reason). Just the fact that he didn't get big point totals last year makes me think maybe I could get him in round 2. For instance Tiki went late in round 2 last year. (Tiki had great #'s too boot). Julius Jones went late 2nd round too.Kevin Jones though was a very late 1st rounder (#10 -- maybe he was the first pick in the 2nd round at 11). Thus someone bought the hype on K Jones last year, so Brown might have ZERO chance of going in the 2nd round.Taking Tiki given the stat breakdown/information for TDs is interesting.Top 6 even after cutting his stats significantly. Amazing that he is just not getting the overwhelming consideration as the #4 running back this year.

If Ronnie Brown is available at 17, make sure you have your knitting needles available because I'm sure the grandmas you're drafting with will have some pointers for you after the draft.

 

[chocolate bomber]

I wouldn't worry about Barber's Priest's age. For alot of his younger years he didn't play every down./quote]

That's better.

 

[ROCKET]

WTF is everyone so worried about having the #4 pick? I have it in a 12 teamer and was offered the #11 and #14 for the #4 and #21. I thought about it but to me it's not worth dropping down past 7/8 if you want to be guaranteed a solid #1 rb. At #4 you get your choice of the best rb you covet after the big 3. You don't have to sit back and hope the guy you like falls to you. To me I like that slot.

Then at #21 you are still guaranteed a solid WR like Boldin or a solid #2 rb. Then you have the #28 where you're still picking at the top of the round ahead of the so-called better slots. Being at #4 doesn't kill you in the second round and you are guaranteed 3 of the top 28 players off the board. I'll take that any day. I think people are over-analyzing things to think a top 5 pick isn't a great spot to be in.

 

[The Jerk]

I wouldn't worry about Barber's Priest's age. For alot of his younger years he didn't play every down.

That's better.

I assume you're trying to be clever about comparing Barber '06 to Holmes '05. Not a good comparison. Holmes had broken down twice in the previous three seasons ('02 and '04) coming into the 2005 season. Barber has not missed a game since 2001. In fact, Barber has missed only two of his past 128 games and six out of 144 for his career.While I think chronological age does matter, I think workload matters even more.

Contrast Barber with James and Tomlinson.

Chronological age as of September 2006:

Barber 31 yr 5 mo

James 28 yr 1 mo

LT 27 yr 2 mo

Combined number of regular season rushes and receptions:

James 2544 over 96 games (26.50 touches per game)

Barber 2417 over 138 games (17.52 touches per game)

LT 2044 over 79 games (25.87 touches per game)

Another way to look at it is that Barber has only had the punishing workload of a full feature back for the past four seasons:

Barber's touches:

1997-2001 629 rushes and 284 receptions in 74 games (12.34 touches per game)

2002-2005 1260 rushes and 244 receptions in 64 games (23.50 touches per game)

Finally, consider that 2005 was Barber's busiest year.

In 16 games, 357 rushes and 54 receptions = 411 touches (25.69 touches per game)

So even in Barber's busiest single season, he averaged fewer touches per game than both Edge and LT have FOR THEIR ENTIRE CAREER.

Any player can get hurt, but it's stats like these that suggest Barber is a young 31 (and that Edge is an old 28).

 

[tommyGunZ]

Fantastic posts Jerk. Surely the actual age of Barber plays some role in your analysis, correct? How much weight do you give Barbers 31 year old body in your analysis?

And as you noted, Barber is coming off by far the two biggest workload seasons of his career, and he doesn't have the size of the Edge or LT2. Doesn't this entail added risk?

 

[Mmen of Steel]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

Yep. Exactly.Peyton is the surest bet going, barring injury. The colts passing schedule is cake, and they already look to be in mid-season form. Our league also gives a big bonus to long tds thrown.I am taking Peyton at 4 this week. Let the RB whores have their play at 5-18. I'll take a stud WR in rd 2 and make up for it in rds 3 & 4. I'll get stuck with the Jones/Benson and Bell/Bell combos probably.But someone has to emerge from that mess, right?

 

[QUEZILLA]

I just traded up to 4 right before my draft last Sat. I gave up 1.7 & my 4th for his 1.4 and an 8th in a 12 team guppy redraft league. Took Peyton It is my local redraft league, and most of these guys are idiots. As soon as Chris Simms went in the 4th round, I knew I made the right choice. Cleaned up on the sleepers nobody knew about in the later rounds. It was the text book guppy draft, thanks to the guppy article last week.

My team ended up being

Manning, Peyton IND QB

Rivers, Philip SDC QB

Addai, Joseph IND RB

Anderson, Mike BAL RB

Betts, Ladell WAS RB

Brown, Chris TEN RB

Gore, Frank SFO RB

Lewis, Jamal BAL RB

Morency, Vernand HOU RB

White, LenDale TEN RB ®

Bryant, Antonio SFO WR

Johnson, Chad CIN WR

Jones, Matt JAC WR

Taylor, Travis MIN WR

Williamson, Troy MIN WR

Witten, Jason DAL TE

Graham, Shayne CIN PK

Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def

Again props to the guppy article, if anybody plays in a league with guppies it is a must read. Plan on using the same strategy for my work league draft next week.

 

[The Jerk]

Fantastic posts Jerk. Surely the actual age of Barber plays some role in your analysis, correct? How much weight do you give Barbers 31 year old body in your analysis?And as you noted, Barber is coming off by far the two biggest workload seasons of his career, and he doesn't have the size of the Edge or LT2. Doesn't this entail added risk?

I face a draft next week where I am 99% likely to be forced to choose between S.Jax and Tiki. I keep trying to find reasons to take Jackson, but what more does Barber need to do before you realize that he is a pretty good RB?As I said in my previous post, chronological age does matter. Healing takes a little longer, reflexes very slowly start to diminish, etc. However, it's hard to quantify how much impact this has on the likelihood of injury and lesser performance. Another factor is how well an individual athlete takes care of his body through nutrition, exercise and lifestyle. By all accounts, Tiki is exemplary in all aspects.As far as size is concerned, his comparatively small stature may actually play a role in helping him to avoid more direct hits similar to Barry Sanders. Watching Bettis in Pittsburgh all these years makes it very clear that the bigger back can dish out more punishment, but he also takes more punishment. For comparison, I expect LJ will be hard-pressed to last as long as Tiki if he doesn't adjust his style as he ages.I'm mildly concerned by Barber coming off four consecutive high workload seasons, but my biggest concern is actually that 2005 was almost certainly his career peak. Yet he can drop off 20-25% across the board and likely finish Top 6 again in 2006. Sometimes you can overanalyze this stuff. Every year people try to get the next big thing instead of taking the boring, proven pick. I'm pretty sure there are no points for originality or degree of difficulty in FF. It's usually yards and TDs that matter most.

 

[coachjim]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

This is the kind of thing that makes me want to trade down.Why waste the #4 on this guy when you could trade down to #8 and get him there? Then you have two picks closer together, you got the guy you wanted, and you are sitting at the #4 slot in the 3rd round...

I keep hearing trade down, trade down. In my league's the owners are all well versed. I was offered the 4 hole for the 9 hole in a 10 team league and declined. In a leqgue full of good owners it is not as easy to trade down as you think.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Sometimes you can overanalyze this stuff. Every year people try to get the next big thing instead of taking the boring, proven pick. I'm pretty sure there are no points for originality or degree of difficulty in FF. It's usually yards and TDs that matter most.

I agree. But using this line of thinking I drafted Priest Holmes last year, and it ruined my season in one of my leagues. I know there is a ton of data to distinguish Holmes from Barber, but I'm just pointing out that the "boring, proven pick" also carries significant risks. If Tiki was 26 years old and not getting pulled at the goal line, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

 

[chocolate bomber]

Sometimes you can overanalyze this stuff. Every year people try to get the next big thing instead of taking the boring, proven pick. I'm pretty sure there are no points for originality or degree of difficulty in FF. It's usually yards and TDs that matter most.

I agree. But using this line of thinking I drafted Priest Holmes last year, and it ruined my season in one of my leagues. I know there is a ton of data to distinguish Holmes from Barber, but I'm just pointing out that the "boring, proven pick" also carries significant risks. If Tiki was 26 years old and not getting pulled at the goal line, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

I'm pretty sure Holmes was 30-31 when he got banged up in '04. The age concerns were dismissed, because he lacked "wear and tear". I think Barber's great, despite the goaline touches, but I am too afraid to take him at 4. In an non-ppr league, after exhausting all options to trade down, I would take Rudi or Manning. The Bengals' O will roll fine with Wright at QB and the best WR trio in the NFL. 300-cary guy that gets it at the stripe on a good offense. OK, forget Manning…I'm taking Rudi.

 

[EBF]

I'd take Cadillac or Steven Jackson. Jackson has a better chance of actually finishing in the top 5, but Williams is the safer pick. I think he's close to a lock for 1,200+.

 

[Fla\/\/ed]

Picking 4th in both of my local leagues this year. Taking Ronnie Brown in both. Opportunity + elite talent = top 5 #'s.

This is the kind of thing that makes me want to trade down.Why waste the #4 on this guy when you could trade down to #8 and get him there? Then you have two picks closer together, you got the guy you wanted, and you are sitting at the #4 slot in the 3rd round...

In a leqgue full of good owners it is not as easy to trade down as you think.

 

[NEUPJ]

I got the #4 pick in my 10 team re-draft. I ended up going Tiki and couldn't be happier. This is a PPR league.

Every year it's everyone hating on Tiki, Tiki's a fluke, he won't be any good, Dayne's going to take his job, He's not getting goal line carries and every year he's good. He's had 2 seasons of low Touchdowns but every year he's 50+ rec, nearly 1700 yards a year or more (hold 2002) but he's pretty damn consistant.

Since 2000:

2000: 1727 total yards, 9 TD's 70 Rec

2001: 1442 total yards, 4 TD's, 72 Rec

2002: 1984 total yards, 11 Td's, 69 Rec.

2003: 1677 total yards, 3 TD's, 69 Rec.

2004: 2096 total yards, 15 TD's, 52 Rec.

2005: 2390 total yards, 11 TD's, 54 Rec.

 

[qimqam]

I just traded up to 4 right before my draft last Sat. I gave up 1.7 & my 4th for his 1.4 and an 8th in a 12 team guppy redraft league. Took Peyton It is my local redraft league, and most of these guys are idiots. As soon as Chris Simms went in the 4th round, I knew I made the right choice. Cleaned up on the sleepers nobody knew about in the later rounds. It was the text book guppy draft, thanks to the guppy article last week. My team ended up beingManning, Peyton IND QB Rivers, Philip SDC QB Addai, Joseph IND RB Anderson, Mike BAL RB Betts, Ladell WAS RB Brown, Chris TEN RB Gore, Frank SFO RB Lewis, Jamal BAL RB Morency, Vernand HOU RB White, LenDale TEN RB ® Bryant, Antonio SFO WR Johnson, Chad CIN WR Jones, Matt JAC WRTaylor, Travis MIN WRWilliamson, Troy MIN WR Witten, Jason DAL TE Graham, Shayne CIN PK Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def Again props to the guppy article, if anybody plays in a league with guppies it is a must read. Plan on using the same strategy for my work league draft next week.

Wow !!!! That team Sucks!!!!!I traded up three spots from 7 to 4 in the 1st rd. (Before Portis got hurt) and all I gave up was 3 spots in the 2nd, 4th and 6th rounds. You gave up 45 spots to move up 3? Sorry Bad trade ... Worse Draft

 

[The Jerk]

Sometimes you can overanalyze this stuff. Every year people try to get the next big thing instead of taking the boring, proven pick. I'm pretty sure there are no points for originality or degree of difficulty in FF. It's usually yards and TDs that matter most.

I agree. But using this line of thinking I drafted Priest Holmes last year, and it ruined my season in one of my leagues. I know there is a ton of data to distinguish Holmes from Barber, but I'm just pointing out that the "boring, proven pick" also carries significant risks. If Tiki was 26 years old and not getting pulled at the goal line, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

I don't equate drafting Holmes in 2005 as the same kind of "boring, proven pick" that Tiki is at #4 (with Portis injured). Holmes missed half the 2004 season and had some RB (what's his name, L. Johnson I think) breathing down his neck. I debated long and hard before drafting Priest in two leagues. I knew that drafting Priest meant picking Johnson by the 5th or 6th round to protect my investment at 1.03.But I'm actually more critical of the hype surrounding Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams over players like Barber and Rudi Johnson. Tiki has been Top 4 and Rudi Top 8 each of the last two seasons, but that's apparently not good enough (or not challenging enough?) for people to pick them at their spot (not early, but AT their spot), while Ronnie Brown gets touted as a candidate for the 4 spot despite having a whopping 5 TDs and two 100-yard games as a pro.I mean, it's not like Tiki has 17 100+ rushing (only, not combined) yardage games in the past two seasons. Oh, wait, he does. OK, but it's not like he has 26 TDs over the past two seasons. Oh, sorry, he's done that, too. Of course, Brown could outperform Rudi this year. Of course, Jackson could outperform Barber this year. However, I think the logic many people are using is that Brown has a higher ceiling than Rudi because Ricky is no longer a Dolphin, and that Jackson's ceiling is higher than Barber's with the addition of Linehan and the subtraction of Martz and Faulk. To me, these people are comparing Brown and Jackson's best case scenarios to Rudi and Tiki's average (or even worst case) scenarios. And that's where I see faulty logic.