What to do with the freaking 4 pick in the next week! (1 Viewer)

[puffkit]

new to the forum...hi

i have the 5 pick in a 12 team td heavy league (no ppr) this weekend and am considering sjax/tiki/rbrown and possibly (but not likely) manning. here is how i see it.

tiki- age will not be a big factor as he has had a great offseason working out but his schedule with two games each against dal and was is tough. add to that chi at home and @ jax and @ caro.....not the best scenario. also figuring in jacobs vulturing (7 lyr) and i think tiki takes a downturn in his totals. still better than sjax or rbrown?

sjax-the ultimate risk/reward. schedule has some patsies (sf, oak, kc) and some killers (@sd, chi, was). good offensive system but has a history of getting dinged. tough call for a 5 pick.

rbrown-good system and is now the man after smokey went north. IF culpepper is healthy (and stays healthy) brown could have a breakout year. OL is weak but with chambers (can stretch the d) and mcmichael there wont be 8 in the box. Schedule looks good....only 3 stand out as tough matchups..@pit, @chi, jax. Again, has never handled this load before..may hit the wall somewhere around games 10-13. i'm considering him.....

manning-pretty much a cant miss. will play every game, 30+tds. solid wr and te core and maybe a few more passes to the rb with addai this year? (44 to james lyr)...however draft qb at 5 and you are looking at a wr heavy team. rb's will be 3rd tier and will need luck to get a solid every week starter.

would love some feedback.........

 

[tommyGunZ]

Sometimes you can overanalyze this stuff. Every year people try to get the next big thing instead of taking the boring, proven pick. I'm pretty sure there are no points for originality or degree of difficulty in FF. It's usually yards and TDs that matter most.

I agree. But using this line of thinking I drafted Priest Holmes last year, and it ruined my season in one of my leagues. I know there is a ton of data to distinguish Holmes from Barber, but I'm just pointing out that the "boring, proven pick" also carries significant risks. If Tiki was 26 years old and not getting pulled at the goal line, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

I don't equate drafting Holmes in 2005 as the same kind of "boring, proven pick" that Tiki is at #4 (with Portis injured). Holmes missed half the 2004 season and had some RB (what's his name, L. Johnson I think) breathing down his neck. I debated long and hard before drafting Priest in two leagues. I knew that drafting Priest meant picking Johnson by the 5th or 6th round to protect my investment at 1.03.But I'm actually more critical of the hype surrounding Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams over players like Barber and Rudi Johnson. Tiki has been Top 4 and Rudi Top 8 each of the last two seasons, but that's apparently not good enough (or not challenging enough?) for people to pick them at their spot (not early, but AT their spot), while Ronnie Brown gets touted as a candidate for the 4 spot despite having a whopping 5 TDs and two 100-yard games as a pro.

I mean, it's not like Tiki has 17 100+ rushing (only, not combined) yardage games in the past two seasons. Oh, wait, he does. OK, but it's not like he has 26 TDs over the past two seasons. Oh, sorry, he's done that, too.

Of course, Brown could outperform Rudi this year. Of course, Jackson could outperform Barber this year. However, I think the logic many people are using is that Brown has a higher ceiling than Rudi because Ricky is no longer a Dolphin, and that Jackson's ceiling is higher than Barber's with the addition of Linehan and the subtraction of Martz and Faulk. To me, these people are comparing Brown and Jackson's best case scenarios to Rudi and Tiki's average (or even worst case) scenarios. And that's where I see faulty logic.

Another good post, but I strongly disagree with the bolded section. Personally, I took Brown over Tiki because I think Brown will outperform Tiki, not because taking Tiki at 4 is "not challenging". I weighed ALL of the factors (past performance, talent, opportunity, situations, age, health, etc.) and felt that Brown is a better bet in '06. Tiki's floor is lower than you speculate, IMO. His last two years with the heavy workload are noted, but I think Tiki is more likely to put up '03 numbers than '05 numbers, and anticipate Brown having more total yards and TDs than Tiki.

 

[Defending Champs]

With the recent news of Duckett to the Nations Capital...Ronnie Brown at #4 is what I'd do.

You really can't trade out unless another owner has someone in mind they have targeted and can't live without.

I'd go the Ronnie Brown or SJax angle.

 

[The Jerk]

Tiki's floor is lower than you speculate, IMO. His last two years with the heavy workload are noted, but I think Tiki is more likely to put up '03 numbers than '05 numbers, and anticipate Brown having more total yards and TDs than Tiki.

That's why we play the game. It would be boring if we all thought alike. I can see Brown having more TDs, but I can't see him having more yards. Two reasons:1. Miami is being overhyped due to winning their final 6 games last year. They won 4 of those games by a combined 9 points. Three of the victories were against 4-12 teams, one vs. 5-11, one vs. the Patriots who basically lost on purpose. Their only quality win was at San Diego, who was arguably looking ahead to the undefeated Cotls in the very next game.2. The Giants in 2003 were an absolute mess. Jason Wood reminded me of the problems the Giants had on the offense (especially the OL), on defense, and Jim Fassel, Kerry Collins, etc. They are clearly a better team now coming off a division championship and once again a playoff contender.I'm all for trying to pick emerging players. You can get into trouble relying too much on last year's stats. But I prefer to target the breakthrough players a little bit later than the first five picks of the draft.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Tiki's floor is lower than you speculate, IMO. His last two years with the heavy workload are noted, but I think Tiki is more likely to put up '03 numbers than '05 numbers, and anticipate Brown having more total yards and TDs than Tiki.

That's why we play the game. It would be boring if we all thought alike. I can see Brown having more TDs, but I can't see him having more yards. Two reasons:1. Miami is being overhyped due to winning their final 6 games last year. They won 4 of those games by a combined 9 points. Three of the victories were against 4-12 teams, one vs. 5-11, one vs. the Patriots who basically lost on purpose. Their only quality win was at San Diego, who was arguably looking ahead to the undefeated Cotls in the very next game.2. The Giants in 2003 were an absolute mess. Jason Wood reminded me of the problems the Giants had on the offense (especially the OL), on defense, and Jim Fassel, Kerry Collins, etc. They are clearly a better team now coming off a division championship and once again a playoff contender.I'm all for trying to pick emerging players. You can get into trouble relying too much on last year's stats. But I prefer to target the breakthrough players a little bit later than the first five picks of the draft.

Good points. Using the #4 overall pick on a RB with 900 career rushing yards is somewhat of a role of the dice. You point out the Phins relatively easy schedule in the 2nd half of '05. This year's schedule is even softer, and the Giants schedule is brutal. Another edge to Brown.It will be interesting to see where the RBs fall in line this year. After this discussion, I'm convinced it will be SJax and Jordan following the big 3, with Tiki and Brown outside of the top 15.

 

[The Jerk]

Tiki's floor is lower than you speculate, IMO. His last two years with the heavy workload are noted, but I think Tiki is more likely to put up '03 numbers than '05 numbers, and anticipate Brown having more total yards and TDs than Tiki.

That's why we play the game. It would be boring if we all thought alike. I can see Brown having more TDs, but I can't see him having more yards. Two reasons:1. Miami is being overhyped due to winning their final 6 games last year. They won 4 of those games by a combined 9 points. Three of the victories were against 4-12 teams, one vs. 5-11, one vs. the Patriots who basically lost on purpose. Their only quality win was at San Diego, who was arguably looking ahead to the undefeated Cotls in the very next game.2. The Giants in 2003 were an absolute mess. Jason Wood reminded me of the problems the Giants had on the offense (especially the OL), on defense, and Jim Fassel, Kerry Collins, etc. They are clearly a better team now coming off a division championship and once again a playoff contender.I'm all for trying to pick emerging players. You can get into trouble relying too much on last year's stats. But I prefer to target the breakthrough players a little bit later than the first five picks of the draft.

Good points. Using the #4 overall pick on a RB with 900 career rushing yards is somewhat of a role of the dice. You point out the Phins relatively easy schedule in the 2nd half of '05. This year's schedule is even softer, and the Giants schedule is brutal. Another edge to Brown.It will be interesting to see where the RBs fall in line this year. After this discussion, I'm convinced it will be SJax and Jordan following the big 3, with Tiki and Brown outside of the top 15.

Just for fun, tgunz...According to Clayton Gray's SoS projections, Miami expects to see 4.2% easier rushing defenses while the NYG expect to face 1.6% more difficult rushing defenses. Edge to R.Brown. Over the playoff weeks 14-16, the advantage is extremely small -- very slight edge to Brown.Now I get to the fun part.In their final 8 games of last season, the Giants opponents had a combined 2005 record of 67-61 (.523 pct.). Their 2006 opponents had a combined 2005 record of 139-117 (.543 pct.). The Dolphins equivalent numbers are: 52-76 to conclude 2005 (.406), and 120-136 for 2006 (.469). The Giants 2006 opponents are .020 pct. better than they were to conclude 2005.The Dolphins opponents are .063 pct. points better in 2006 than they were to conclude 2005.Recall that Tiki averaged 22 FBG ppg during the final 8 games of 2005.Brown averaged 7.5 FBG ppg during the final 8 games of 2005.So after those initial small edges to Brown, the remaining analysis shows very large edges to Tiki.I'll readily admit that these statistics are almost completely irrelevant to the 2006 draft. Yet they do point out that Barber did quite well against nearly the same level of competition the Giants expect to face in 2006. Brown of course was splitting time with Ricky, but you need to triple his numbers to get to the same production level as Tiki. And the teams Brown faces in 2006 will be stronger than the teams he faced in the second half of 2005.But for even doing this analysis in the first place... (I definitely need to get out more)

 

[my man otis]

Why wouldnt you go Peyton?Of the RBs, I dont see how you could pass up on Tiki. Age is not a statistical category and is vastly overated.

It's not really a question, at 4 you take Tiki. Now if you had the 5 spot, that would be a PIA.

ditto. you've got a good spot. just take jacobs in the 14th and be happy.