What's more important - talent or opportunity? (1 Viewer)

[buccosfan]

Keeper league draft so it's almost all rookies.

You have the 4th pick in the draft ... You're fine at QB, if you don't trade one before the draft.

The first 3 picks are Bush, Maroney and Addai.

That leaves you with taking a guy who played well in college (DeAngelo Williams), a guy you don't want to succeed because he screws your team over (LenDale White as a Chirs Brown owner), or Mike Bell.

Now, the most likely to succeed this year - as of today - looks to be Mike Bell. But if the last few years have taught us anything it's that while the Broncos RB situation looks great, Shanahan has these guys on a merry-go-round. One fumble and Bell could be benched.

This is as much a long-term decision as anything.

Who do you take?

 

[buccosfan]

no one has an opinion on this subject? i expected better here.

 

[EBF]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.

Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season.

Mike Bell played at the Senior Bowl and was invited to the combine. NFL teams had every opportunity to evaluate him. Not one of the 32 teams in the NFL deemed him worthy of a draft pick. It's not like this is a Priest Holmes case where the guy was backing up a Heisman winner. He was a starter and everyone knew about him. Fact is, he's just not that good. The only reason he's even remotely relevant right now is because his competition consists of sheer mediocrity. That won't last in the long term.

Situation is important when the talent gap between two prospects appears slim, but the gap between White/Williams and Bell is a few miles wide. If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

 

[BoulderBob]

Option 1: Take Williams, probably sits on the bench this season, may start a few games. If Foster has break-out year, situation could turn into RBBC hell. If Foster goes down in week 1-6, Williams could step in a post good numbers in a decent system for RB's.

Option 2: Take Bell, probably starts the season as the #1 RB, although we all know there is a high likelyhood he loses the job at some point. If he proves to be the real deal, you have a stud #1 RB, if not, a scrub.

I like to gamble, and watching Bell run behind a terrible line at AZ and produce does say something about the guy. I'm not sure why he went undrafted, but I do know he fits the Denver scheme perfectly. I hate passing on a talent like Williams, but the odds say at least one of the first round RB's will bust, and I'm banking on it being him.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The Denver situation is very particular and digging into this will just make your head hurt. Bell has talent but like many NFL prospects a lot of it has to do with opportunity in college or even in High School. For example the best basketball player I've ever seen play not in the NBA was a guy who played at open gym at various locations in Detroit. Guy was 35 and could dunk over college players from the dotted circle. He quit in high school to support his family and never got the opportunity. He would have played in the pros.

In Denver when their scouts go to workouts they are looking for things that other NFL teams are not. Denver is looking for a diamond in the rough at RB while the other NFL teams are looking for a special teams guy or a safety that might be able to fill a practice squad or NFL Europe spot. A tackling dummy with the skills to keep up just enough to make a practice realistic and to save some of your front line guys from injuries. Jokes are made all the time about Denver as far as me or you being able to run for 1000 yards in that system. That's why they traded Clinton Portis. The falloff from a Portis to a Ron Dayne or a Mike Bell isn't as pronounced as it is anywhere else. If you have a guy with good vision and decent skills he can thrive not just survive in Denver.

To answer the initial question of what is more important, opportunity or talent...I'd say without a doubt it is opportunity. You can have all the talent in the world (e.g. Charles Rogers and JJ Arrington) and the situation or the players attitude might not be just right and the opportunity is fleeting. Arrington was the apple in the FFL's eye last year but the line stunk and the guy looked loss playing vs NFL competition. Is that considered opportunity? I'd say yes but it wasn't a good opportunity. Does Arrington have the talent? Does Rogers? Yeah, they do. There are just so many variables in talent and opportunity that it's hard to narrow the focus. You need to have the opportunity first, then you can use your talent to make the best of that opportunity.

How Mike Bell works out I don't know. Just took him in the 31st round of a four sport dynasty league (around 8th in NFL only) as a minimum risk acquisition. Will he work out? Maybe. But the upside is tremendous and if the guy has the talent to be an NFL back, he has the perfect opportunity to show as much. Compare him to the rest of the running back class outside of Reggie Bush who went much earlier in the draft, and the guy could be a real steal.

 

[Ozymandias]

Talent is #1. If you don't have it, then the opportunity does not matter. Of course, when we are talking about guys in the NFL, we are talking about people who all have talent. The gradations are very small. Then you have to have opportunity.

Steve Young sat behind Montana until Montana was injured. The he had the opportunity to show he was Hall of Fame potential. Had Montana not been injured, he might have sat a couple more years. But if he hadn't had talent, he wouldn't have been there.

 

[-OZ-]

redraft = opportunity

dynasty = talent

 

[Traders2001]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season. Mike Bell played at the Senior Bowl and was invited to the combine. NFL teams had every opportunity to evaluate him. Not one of the 32 teams in the NFL deemed him worthy of a draft pick. It's not like this is a Priest Holmes case where the guy was backing up a Heisman winner. He was a starter and everyone knew about him. Fact is, he's just not that good. The only reason he's even remotely relevant right now is because his competition consists of sheer mediocrity. That won't last in the long term.Situation is important when the talent gap between two prospects appears slim, but the gap between White/Williams and Bell is a few miles wide. If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

So if i understand what your saying Mike Bell even if he has a 1500 rush yards and 12 TDs , very possible with the Broncos he will be replaced next season.I think once in a while a guy comes up unknown and surprise everyone , give him a chance .It s not ike he is a smurf like QUentin Griffin, he is big fast and is perfect fit for the Broncos offense.

 

[jurb26]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season. Mike Bell played at the Senior Bowl and was invited to the combine. NFL teams had every opportunity to evaluate him. Not one of the 32 teams in the NFL deemed him worthy of a draft pick. It's not like this is a Priest Holmes case where the guy was backing up a Heisman winner. He was a starter and everyone knew about him. Fact is, he's just not that good. The only reason he's even remotely relevant right now is because his competition consists of sheer mediocrity. That won't last in the long term.Situation is important when the talent gap between two prospects appears slim, but the gap between White/Williams and Bell is a few miles wide. If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

So if i understand what your saying Mike Bell even if he has a 1500 rush yards and 12 TDs , very possible with the Broncos he will be replaced next season.I think once in a while a guy comes up unknown and surprise everyone , give him a chance .It s not ike he is a smurf like QUentin Griffin, he is big fast and is perfect fit for the Broncos offense.

Portis did better than that as was sent to Wash via trade. Actually, on a per carry basis Portis was the best RB in ithe NFL and more productive than TD. Really it wasn't all that close IIRC too.

 

[Traders2001]

The Denver situation is very particular and digging into this will just make your head hurt. Bell has talent but like many NFL prospects a lot of it has to do with opportunity in college or even in High School. For example the best basketball player I've ever seen play not in the NBA was a guy who played at open gym at various locations in Detroit. Guy was 35 and could dunk over college players from the dotted circle. He quit in high school to support his family and never got the opportunity. He would have played in the pros. In Denver when their scouts go to workouts they are looking for things that other NFL teams are not. Denver is looking for a diamond in the rough at RB while the other NFL teams are looking for a special teams guy or a safety that might be able to fill a practice squad or NFL Europe spot. A tackling dummy with the skills to keep up just enough to make a practice realistic and to save some of your front line guys from injuries. Jokes are made all the time about Denver as far as me or you being able to run for 1000 yards in that system. That's why they traded Clinton Portis. The falloff from a Portis to a Ron Dayne or a Mike Bell isn't as pronounced as it is anywhere else. If you have a guy with good vision and decent skills he can thrive not just survive in Denver. To answer the initial question of what is more important, opportunity or talent...I'd say without a doubt it is opportunity. You can have all the talent in the world (e.g. Charles Rogers and JJ Arrington) and the situation or the players attitude might not be just right and the opportunity is fleeting. Arrington was the apple in the FFL's eye last year but the line stunk and the guy looked loss playing vs NFL competition. Is that considered opportunity? I'd say yes but it wasn't a good opportunity. Does Arrington have the talent? Does Rogers? Yeah, they do. There are just so many variables in talent and opportunity that it's hard to narrow the focus. You need to have the opportunity first, then you can use your talent to make the best of that opportunity. How Mike Bell works out I don't know. Just took him in the 31st round of a four sport dynasty league (around 8th in NFL only) as a minimum risk acquisition. Will he work out? Maybe. But the upside is tremendous and if the guy has the talent to be an NFL back, he has the perfect opportunity to show as much. Compare him to the rest of the running back class outside of Reggie Bush who went much earlier in the draft, and the guy could be a real steal.

I agree , if Cadillac ended in AZ and JJ in Tampa Bay we are probably saying the opposite .Like Cadillac was a bust and JJ is great.Talent is important but GOOD opprtunity is very important as well. Arrington would be a top 10 in Denver .James will have a tough season, with this OL.

 

[coolnerd]

redraft = opportunitydynasty = talent

Correct, in the most general sense. Of course, there is talent the never develops and marginal talents who take an opportunity and never give it back.

 

[Despyzer]

no one has an opinion on this subject? i expected better here.

You had high expectations at 4:00 on a Sunday morning? Anyway, I have heard many times that the difference in ability at the NFL level from the best at a position to the worst at a position is almost negligible. The difference between an all-pro and a scrub is largely attitude and opportunity.

 

[H.K.]

no one has an opinion on this subject? i expected better here.

You had high expectations at 4:00 on a Sunday morning? Anyway, I have heard many times that the difference in ability at the NFL level from the best at a position to the worst at a position is almost negligible. The difference between an all-pro and a scrub is largely attitude and opportunity.

Put Andre Johnson in Philadelphia and I'll bet he's putting up huge numbers and making pro-bowls.

 

[coolnerd]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season. Mike Bell played at the Senior Bowl and was invited to the combine. NFL teams had every opportunity to evaluate him. Not one of the 32 teams in the NFL deemed him worthy of a draft pick. It's not like this is a Priest Holmes case where the guy was backing up a Heisman winner. He was a starter and everyone knew about him. Fact is, he's just not that good. The only reason he's even remotely relevant right now is because his competition consists of sheer mediocrity. That won't last in the long term.Situation is important when the talent gap between two prospects appears slim, but the gap between White/Williams and Bell is a few miles wide. If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

So if i understand what your saying Mike Bell even if he has a 1500 rush yards and 12 TDs , very possible with the Broncos he will be replaced next season.I think once in a while a guy comes up unknown and surprise everyone , give him a chance .It s not ike he is a smurf like QUentin Griffin, he is big fast and is perfect fit for the Broncos offense.

Portis did better than that as was sent to Wash via trade. Actually, on a per carry basis Portis was the best RB in ithe NFL and more productive than TD. Really it wasn't all that close IIRC too.

Even if Denver does some version of a couple of years and out on Mike Bell that does not mean he will turn into Orlandis Gary. If I had a dynasty obsession with Denver backs for the last 4 or so years, Griffin, Portis, Dreughns, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, my RBs going into 2006 would bePortisDreughnsTatum BellMike andersonMike Bell, because I had Qs roster space Given that I would not exactly go out of my way to avoid Denver RBs, in fact, it looks like I need to go after the Denver RB and if patient may get RBs spread all over the place because they are not locking into one runner.

 

[comfortably numb]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.

Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season.

Mike Bell played at the Senior Bowl and was invited to the combine. NFL teams had every opportunity to evaluate him. Not one of the 32 teams in the NFL deemed him worthy of a draft pick. It's not like this is a Priest Holmes case where the guy was backing up a Heisman winner. He was a starter and everyone knew about him. Fact is, he's just not that good. The only reason he's even remotely relevant right now is because his competition consists of sheer mediocrity. That won't last in the long term.

Situation is important when the talent gap between two prospects appears slim, but the gap between White/Williams and Bell is a few miles wide. If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

A joke??Any RB that DEN can possibly produce needs close attention IMO, and as history proves, can produce HIGH dividends.

Even if it is only for a year.

As far as everyone passing on Mike Bell:

Everyone basically passed on Terrell Davis.

Everyone passed on Clinton Portis once

Everyone passed on Mike Anderson

Just cause someone was drafted late or undrafted, doesn't mean they will be a joke just as everyone being drafted early doesnt = success.

The top 5 rookie RB's that you would take ahead of Bell, of those 5 history proves, 2-3 of them will not mount to anything, for whatever reason.

 

[H.K.]

Even if Denver does some version of a couple of years and out on Mike Bell that does not mean he will turn into Orlandis Gary. If I had a dynasty obsession with Denver backs for the last 4 or so years, Griffin, Portis, Dreughns, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, my RBs going into 2006 would bePortisDreughnsTatum BellMike andersonMike Bell, because I had Qs roster space Given that I would not exactly go out of my way to avoid Denver RBs, in fact, it looks like I need to go after the Denver RB and if patient may get RBs spread all over the place because they are not locking into one runner.

Hmmm....I wonder if Shanny is doing this to stock his FF dynasty team with RB's....

 

[Bri]

Keeper league draft so it's almost all rookies. You have the 4th pick in the draft ... You're fine at QB, if you don't trade one before the draft. The first 3 picks are Bush, Maroney and Addai. That leaves you with taking a guy who played well in college (DeAngelo Williams), a guy you don't want to succeed because he screws your team over (LenDale White as a Chirs Brown owner), or Mike Bell. Now, the most likely to succeed this year - as of today - looks to be Mike Bell. But if the last few years have taught us anything it's that while the Broncos RB situation looks great, Shanahan has these guys on a merry-go-round. One fumble and Bell could be benched. This is as much a long-term decision as anything.Who do you take?

Bush is on a planet by himself in rankings.Besides the obvious, I read quotes for who is saying the right things and notice the amount of practice time he's missed. Usually one will be a "gym rat"(wrong term for this sport but....) and that sets a flare off.Compare preseason stuff for rookies. Opportunity for rookies in preseason is IMO a direct result of the team's opinion of the player and/or curiousity. Once they're running with first string then they might be rested or saved from injury but until that point I think it can be pretty telling. Another guy, Jackson for "my" Pats is making me wonder if the guy will play much at all before October. Post draft practices are one thing, the bullets are flying now and he's not in there battling. He's got opportunity as the Pats have little depth at WR but I assume BB assumes he'll play poorly until he practices well. So if this was week 1 next sunday(it's not) then I'd think that Troy Brown starts with Reche and that guy Bam Childress that hustled all over the place last night is first off the bench. Keep in mind there's still time for Jackson to "bring it" in practice and earn his rightful spot on the team but IMO he's gotta earn that

 

[Tenacious D]

a guy you don't want to succeed because he screws your team over (LenDale White as a Chirs Brown owner)

Some like to handcuff their RBs, so not sure his success "screws" your team over, as if you draft him, his success is yours. Plus if Brown still gets traded, you have two starters. Is this really a "keeper" league, or dynasty? You say it's mostly just rookies, but your first several picks are all rookies, none of which who are starting, so it looks like their isn't a vet starter out there worth drafting? In a dynasty league, I like DeAngelo long term better, so I would go with him. I'd rank Bell behind both in a dynasty. On the other hand, if it's truly a keeper league, I'd probably go with Mike Bell, since he appears to have the most immediate value (though count me in those who aren't confident he ends the year as their RB1), and I'm not sure either other guy will progress far enough this year to be kept (like if you only keep a couple) for next year.

 

[Donnybrook]

Talent creates opportunities. I'd take DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White without thinking twice.

Mike Bell is a joke for dynasty purposes. Even if he somehow manages to hold onto the starting job for his rookie season, he'll be replaced by whatever flavor of the year free agents and draft picks that Denver brings in next season.

I think that is a little closed minded. I, for one, thought that Droughns would disappear after his time in Denver. Sometimes these guys surprise. Willie Parker enters his 2nd year as a starter. Domnick Davis, Tiki Barber, and Brian Westbrook were drafted to be kick returners.

If you're thinking beyond one season then you'd be a complete fool to draft Bell over one of the top 5 RBs. If you're gambling on immediate returns then maybe Bell will have a decent rookie year. Let's just not forget that this is by all indications a very mediocre prospect we're talking about.

I might take Mike Bell over Lendale White in dynasty. White has the skill but honestly question whether he has the will to be a top RB.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Even if Denver does some version of a couple of years and out on Mike Bell that does not mean he will turn into Orlandis Gary. If I had a dynasty obsession with Denver backs for the last 4 or so years, Griffin, Portis, Dreughns, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, my RBs going into 2006 would bePortisDreughnsTatum BellMike andersonMike Bell, because I had Qs roster space Given that I would not exactly go out of my way to avoid Denver RBs, in fact, it looks like I need to go after the Denver RB and if patient may get RBs spread all over the place because they are not locking into one runner.

Hmmm....I wonder if Shanny is doing this to stock his FF dynasty team with RB's....

 

[buccosfan]

a guy you don't want to succeed because he screws your team over (LenDale White as a Chirs Brown owner)

Some like to handcuff their RBs, so not sure his success "screws" your team over, as if you draft him, his success is yours. Plus if Brown still gets traded, you have two starters. Is this really a "keeper" league, or dynasty? You say it's mostly just rookies, but your first several picks are all rookies, none of which who are starting, so it looks like their isn't a vet starter out there worth drafting? In a dynasty league, I like DeAngelo long term better, so I would go with him. I'd rank Bell behind both in a dynasty. On the other hand, if it's truly a keeper league, I'd probably go with Mike Bell, since he appears to have the most immediate value (though count me in those who aren't confident he ends the year as their RB1), and I'm not sure either other guy will progress far enough this year to be kept (like if you only keep a couple) for next year.

We don't carry huge rosters, so 'handcuffing' is really not an option I want. We play 12 out of 15 on a weekly basis, and with byes, having a guy like White/Brown loser is a handicap. Plus, I'm probably going into the season with Thomas Jones if I can't trade him. I don't see Brown getting traded. At least not until the offseason and that's only if White outproduces him.