I am actually looking for some people who might have some good statistical analysis to help answer this question.
I know some of you will say "you never bench your stud" and others will say I am over analyzing things. Yes, I know I am over analyzing it, but I usually do this when I am in a must win situation, and can not afford to lose a game.
So I was thinking of benching one of my stud WR because they are playing a team that has shut down other great WR like Calvin recently.
My other WR isn't considered a stud (actually got him in waivers), but has been #12 in the last 7 weeks among all WRs. Whereas my stud has been #11 in that same span.
Actually, if you looked at their stats below for all games since week 3 (included), it would be hard to tell them apart.
Rank..G.....Rec....Yds.....Avg.....TDs.....Tgts.....FPTs.....FPTs/G
11.....6......37.....590.....15.9 .....3........60.......77.0.....12.8
12.....7......38.....520.....13.7.....6........56.......88.0.....12.6
However, over the last 3 weeks that story is very different. The Stud is still a top 10, the other guy has fallen off to #32... Yet that is only a difference of 4.5 fpts
Rank..G.....Rec....Yds.....Avg.....TDs.... FPTs.....FPTs/G
10.....3.....20.....293.....14.6.....2........ 41.3......13.8
32.....3.....19.....219.....11.5.....1........ 27.9.......9.3
So considering that the Stud has a really tough matchup, and the other guy has an average matchup, who do you go with?
This is what I am thinking, there's 4 scenarios (to over simplify it)
1) Either both players have great games (more than 12 fpts)
2) Either both players have bad games (less than 4 fpts)
3) Stud has great game / Other player has bad game
4) Stud has bad game / Other player has great game
Only in scenario 4 does it make sense to bench your stud.... so what is the probability of that happening? 25% you might think, but is it? Of course not. So let's put some percentages down.
I guess this is what I need help with or feedback on the percentages. I don't have the data but if I had to guess, I would put down these probabilities
Stud vs touch matchup
Bad game: < 4 fpts ---- 50 % chance
Avg game: 4 - 12 fpts ---- 30 % chance
Great game: > 12 fpts --- 20 % chance
Other player vs avg matchup
Bad game: < 4 fpts ---- 20 % chance
Avg game: 4 - 12 fpts ---- 30 % chance
Great game: > 12 fpts --- 50 % chance
Scenario 1: 10% (20% * 50%) ---- Start either
Scenario 2: 10% (50% * 20%) ---- Start either
Scenario 3: 10% (20%+30% * 20%) -- Start Stud
Scenario 4: 40% (50% * 30%+50%) -- Start other
Mmm.. that doesn't add to 100%... these are the other scenarios
Stud great/other avg: 6% (20% * 30%) - Start Stud
Stud avg / other avg: 9% (30% * 30%) - Start either
Stud avg / other great: 15% (30% * 50%) - Start other
So in summary:
Start Stud is better: 16%
Start other is better: 55%
Start either: 29%
So if you start the stud it will be OK 45% of the time. If you start the other guy, he will be better 55% of the time. The key is that only 16% of the time you will regret it if you bench your STUD. How wrong am I? Which risk do you rather take?
I know some of you will say "you never bench your stud" and others will say I am over analyzing things. Yes, I know I am over analyzing it, but I usually do this when I am in a must win situation, and can not afford to lose a game.
So I was thinking of benching one of my stud WR because they are playing a team that has shut down other great WR like Calvin recently.
My other WR isn't considered a stud (actually got him in waivers), but has been #12 in the last 7 weeks among all WRs. Whereas my stud has been #11 in that same span.
Actually, if you looked at their stats below for all games since week 3 (included), it would be hard to tell them apart.
Rank..G.....Rec....Yds.....Avg.....TDs.....Tgts.....FPTs.....FPTs/G
11.....6......37.....590.....15.9 .....3........60.......77.0.....12.8
12.....7......38.....520.....13.7.....6........56.......88.0.....12.6
However, over the last 3 weeks that story is very different. The Stud is still a top 10, the other guy has fallen off to #32... Yet that is only a difference of 4.5 fpts
Rank..G.....Rec....Yds.....Avg.....TDs.... FPTs.....FPTs/G
10.....3.....20.....293.....14.6.....2........ 41.3......13.8
32.....3.....19.....219.....11.5.....1........ 27.9.......9.3
So considering that the Stud has a really tough matchup, and the other guy has an average matchup, who do you go with?
This is what I am thinking, there's 4 scenarios (to over simplify it)
1) Either both players have great games (more than 12 fpts)
2) Either both players have bad games (less than 4 fpts)
3) Stud has great game / Other player has bad game
4) Stud has bad game / Other player has great game
Only in scenario 4 does it make sense to bench your stud.... so what is the probability of that happening? 25% you might think, but is it? Of course not. So let's put some percentages down.
I guess this is what I need help with or feedback on the percentages. I don't have the data but if I had to guess, I would put down these probabilities
Stud vs touch matchup
Bad game: < 4 fpts ---- 50 % chance
Avg game: 4 - 12 fpts ---- 30 % chance
Great game: > 12 fpts --- 20 % chance
Other player vs avg matchup
Bad game: < 4 fpts ---- 20 % chance
Avg game: 4 - 12 fpts ---- 30 % chance
Great game: > 12 fpts --- 50 % chance
Scenario 1: 10% (20% * 50%) ---- Start either
Scenario 2: 10% (50% * 20%) ---- Start either
Scenario 3: 10% (20%+30% * 20%) -- Start Stud
Scenario 4: 40% (50% * 30%+50%) -- Start other
Mmm.. that doesn't add to 100%... these are the other scenarios
Stud great/other avg: 6% (20% * 30%) - Start Stud
Stud avg / other avg: 9% (30% * 30%) - Start either
Stud avg / other great: 15% (30% * 50%) - Start other
So in summary:
Start Stud is better: 16%
Start other is better: 55%
Start either: 29%
So if you start the stud it will be OK 45% of the time. If you start the other guy, he will be better 55% of the time. The key is that only 16% of the time you will regret it if you bench your STUD. How wrong am I? Which risk do you rather take?
