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When does a draft pick have its' most value (1 Viewer)

KCitons

Footballguy
I was looking to trade a couple of draft picks for our upcoming (May) rookie draft. In doing so, I was trying to determine when would be the best time.

Right now, there is a lot of unknown, so I feel the value is at its lowest. In my case, I am looking at trading this years picks for next years picks. I understand the overall draft class will determine some of the value now. But, should a 2nd round pick this year, be worth a second round pick next year. (especially since you don't know if it will be an early or late round pick)

After the actual NFL draft, the landing spot for a player could increase or decrease what fantasy teams would consider "draftable" players per round. So, value should change for the early to mid 1st round picks, but I'm not sure how much it effects picks as you move through the next few rounds.

The last opportunity would be during the draft. But, I still see this as being a gamble. If the draft doesn't unfold, you may find it difficult to move the pick when it is on the clock.

What do other owners think, when it comes to trading current year draft picks for future draft picks? My feeling is that there is no "perfect" time. Anything you get over what you are offering is a win.

 
I keep trying to move the 1.03 to the tune of everyone responding "this draft sucks, blah blah blah." I disagree, and when I'm about to make my pick, I believe I will have people begging for the pick and pay way more then what I'm asking currently.

But even though I can't move it I still feel as if it is getting more and more valuable with every waking day. Especially when 1.03 is exactly where people will start bidding on picks.

 
I keep trying to move the 1.03 to the tune of everyone responding "this draft sucks, blah blah blah." I disagree, and when I'm about to make my pick, I believe I will have people begging for the pick and pay way more then what I'm asking currently.But even though I can't move it I still feel as if it is getting more and more valuable with every waking day. Especially when 1.03 is exactly where people will start bidding on picks.
I kinda feel the same way about this draft. Not so much that it sucks, but that there will be a few more questions about fantasy relevance once the NFL draft is over. I also think this draft is deeper at a few positions and could provide some good value in the mid/later rounds. If given a choice, I would rather have three 4th round picks instead of one 1st rounder.
 
I keep trying to move the 1.03 to the tune of everyone responding "this draft sucks, blah blah blah." I disagree, and when I'm about to make my pick, I believe I will have people begging for the pick and pay way more then what I'm asking currently.

But even though I can't move it I still feel as if it is getting more and more valuable with every waking day. Especially when 1.03 is exactly where people will start bidding on picks.
I kinda feel the same way about this draft. Not so much that it sucks, but that there will be a few more questions about fantasy relevance once the NFL draft is over.

I also think this draft is deeper at a few positions and could provide some good value in the mid/later rounds. If given a choice, I would rather have three 4th round picks instead of one 1st rounder.
You should be able to get more than 3 4th round picks for a 1st round pick. You should be able to get at least a 2nd and another pick for a 1st rounder. I think most everyone agrees that this draft class is deeper than usual due to the high number of juniors who declared. This depth could lead to some value picks in the 4th round but if you are not playing IDP I still see most of the prospects being gone by then. My list of draftable prospects does go 50 or so players deep right now but some of those players are going to be crossed off the list after the Nfl draft.

People should jump at the idea of giving 3 4th round picks for a 1st (if any coach has that many 4ths?) that is not good value for even the last 1st round pick of the round.

Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.

Now many people at this time are underwhelmed with the upcoming draft prospects so because of this I do not think it is a good time to be a seller of 2013 picks but a buyer of them. I think picks through the 3rd round will have value for teams that have room on their roster. In shallow roster leagues this will not be the case and some decent players will go undrafted.

I do not think you would have trouble at all selling your 1st for 2 3rds and a 4th for example if you did want to trade it down. What you could try for is something like a 2nd round pick in 2014 (similar to a 4th round value) a 3rd and 4th round pick in 2013. I think that would be decent value for the pick. For each trade you should be looking at specific players you would target with those picks before making a final decision on if the trade works out for you.

As others have said the value of draft picks will spike after the Nfl draft and we know where these players are going. It depends on your league but I have been able to move picks on draft day pretty well once people see who is falling to certain parts of the draft.

The best time to buy draft picks is right after the current years draft (or a week or so after) and during the regular season when rookie picks cannot fill hole in a roster.

 
The way I see it, the top 3 or 4 picks are usually at their highest value right before the NFL draft. Most guys know who the top few prospects are at that time and everyone assumes they will land in the most logical situation. However, this isn't always the case and it can actually lower their value a good bit if it is a less favorable landing spot.

The highest value for the rest of the picks is hard to pinpoint exactly. It's usually on draft night, a few spots before they come. This way there is still hope of a couple of players that may be there when the pick is up. If you wait until the pick is on the clock sometimes it can blow up in your face cause there isn't anything great left, and sometimes it works out better cause it's the last good player available. I'd rather play it safe when they have a couple of options.

And as far as trading current picks for future year picks, my rule is that I get a pick from the same round next year, plus extra compensation for having to wait the extra year and the unknown of the draft class. I've made the mistake of assuming a pick will be top 5 only to watch him make more trades and make it to the championship game that year. Now I assume every pick a year out is a playoff team. Why would I take a future 2nd for a current 1st? Makes no sense unless I'm getting a good player back with it.

 
I think there are ebbs and flows in draft pick values. However, in general, the closer you get to making the pick the more it is worth. This is not to say that there are not other times when draft pick values peak. Here are a few of those times:

1 After the NFL draft - This is generally dependent on how many fantasy-relevant first round picks are made. A draft like 2008, where 5 highly-regarded RBs go in the first round may have people clamoring to get draft picks right after the draft. But you should strike while the iron is hot, because that interest will wane in the months between the draft and pre-season.

On the other hand, if there are not very many first rounders, interest in trading for picks will be scarce. If this is the case, you're better to hang on till the season is closer.

2 During OTAs/Before Preseason - This is another time when you may get good value out of trading draft picks. Once OTAs roll around coachspeak abounds, and many undeserving players get overhyped. This will lead to the perceived value of a draft class becoming inflated.

But, the good news won't last forever for everyone, and undoubtedly some of these prospects will be exposed by preseason depth charts and struggles. As this happens, the perceived value of draft picks will go down, and people will be more reluctant to trade for them.

However, this can be negated by players that suprise everyone, like Tampa Mike for example.

3 During the Draft - This is really a boom or bust situation, but I would assert that it's generally more boom than bust.

If it is a quality draft, you should have no problem moving a first round pick for something of equal value, and quite possibly something of much more value.

If it is an average draft or even a poor draft, you will still most likely be able to move your first round pick for a first next year. This is because at the draft everyone's hopes get raised quite a bit, and at least one other owner will think more about the present than how this move could cost them in the future.

The worst case scenario is that nobody is interested, and you're forced to draft someone you don't believe in. If this happens, your bluff has been called, and you have to either try move the guy you picked before he is exposed as a middling talent, or just wait it out and hope you're wrong.

 
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Why would I take a future 2nd for a current 1st? Makes no sense unless I'm getting a good player back with it.
I just wanted to say in case my previous post was unclear(I think it was) that I meant trading 2013 1st round pick (really depends on how high the pick is also) for a 1st in 2014 plus a 3rd and 4th in 2013 and a 3rd in 2014 or similar type deals. If the pick is top half of the draft for example. If the pick is bottom of the round then maybe you are only asking for one 3rd rounder and a 4th or 5th in addition to the 1st in 2014.The owner of the highest pick should always be the one getting additional value for moving the pick. The highest pick in a deal is the current years.You can break the value of a 1st rounder into 2 2nd round picks as being pretty fair also. 2 3rds for a 2nd would mean 4 3rds for a 1st. I do not recall ever seeing someone trade a 1st for a handful of 3rd round picks however. Each round has diminishing returns. Generally 4th round picks are not very useful unless you are also drafting defensive players.Each draft class is different. At this point I think 3rd round picks are more valuable than in most years. In a 12 team league prospects usually dry up at some point in the 2nd round but in this year I think this goes pretty deep into the 3rd. At the same time I have not really eliminated any prospects yet. That may happen after the Nfl draft. But there are usually some players I end up liking after the Nfl draft who I didn't have on my list prior to it that would take the place of some guys I considered buried on the depth chart. I think ultimately the 3rd round will be pretty solid in 12 team leagues this year.
 
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A chart indicating draft pick value over the course of an offseason would look like this imo:

Right after the Super Bowl, value will be at its lowest. Most people are footballed out, and they are thinking about the players in the league now who just kicked ### in the playoffs.

This value of draft picks will gradually increase as we get further from the Super Bowl, spiking during the combines, and reaching its climax directly after the NFL Draft.

Then, value will gradually decrease as people forget about their post-draft excitement.

Excitement over the return of the NFL season will come with OTAs, and then the preseason. Once these begin, picks in general will gain value.

However, they may lose value if perceived talented players show bust potential in preseason. A guy like Malcolm Kelly comes to mind. Also, there can be major injuries, which will hurt a draft class, as in the case of Mikel LeShoure and Ryan Williams.

Regardless of what happens during the preseason, once the draft rolls around people will wish they had a first round pick. Unless it's a miserable draft, or the class is decimated by injuries and dissappointments, the pick should peak in value either right before the draft or right before you pick. This depends on how the draft unfolds. Hold on too long and you may end up having to pick someone you don't believe in.

 
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Why would I take a future 2nd for a current 1st? Makes no sense unless I'm getting a good player back with it.
I just wanted to say in case my previous post was unclear(I think it was) that I meant trading 2013 1st round pick (really depends on how high the pick is also) for a 1st in 2014 plus a 3rd and 4th in 2013 and a 3rd in 2014 or similar type deals. If the pick is top half of the draft for example. If the pick is bottom of the round then maybe you are only asking for one 3rd rounder and a 4th or 5th in addition to the 1st in 2014.The owner of the highest pick should always be the one getting additional value for moving the pick. The highest pick in a deal is the current years.You can break the value of a 1st rounder into 2 2nd round picks as being pretty fair also. 2 3rds for a 2nd would mean 4 3rds for a 1st. I do not recall ever seeing someone trade a 1st for a handful of 3rd round picks however. Each round has diminishing returns. Generally 4th round picks are not very useful unless you are also drafting defensive players.Each draft class is different. At this point I think 3rd round picks are more valuable than in most years. In a 12 team league prospects usually dry up at some point in the 2nd round but in this year I think this goes pretty deep into the 3rd. At the same time I have not really eliminated any prospects yet. That may happen after the Nfl draft. But there are usually some players I end up liking after the Nfl draft who I didn't have on my list prior to it that would take the place of some guys I considered buried on the depth chart. I think ultimately the 3rd round will be pretty solid in 12 team leagues this year.
I actually agree with your post and I didn't mean to target you with that statement. I get alot of offers like that for my picks and I can never understand the logic behind it. Like they are doing me some sort of favor by replacing my 1st this year with a 2nd next year. As if they know the draft next year will be stacked with talent that far surpasses the current draft. To me its too much of a chance to take on where the pick will fall and what caliber of talent will be there.I will say the only time I may consider taking something like a 2 this year and a 2 the next year for my LATE 1st is if I really don't like anyone who is available and I feel I can get similar value with the 2nd rounder.
 
I always believe that draft picks are at their lowest value during the season. You don't know how the league will finish up, so their values are still unknown. On top of that, they can't help anybody during the year. After the season ends, people lose interest in football for a while, which is why the time after the SB and before NFL free agency kicks off is always the dead time in dynasty leagues.

After the combine, picks start to gain value, as teams start getting excited about the draft. The picks seem to keep gaining value up through the NFL draft, but whether the peak is before the NFL draft or right before the pick really depends on what happens. With a year like this year, where everyone is really down on the draft's elite talent level, if a couple of the prospects that people are high on go to bad situations, the pick values will really tank.

On the other hand, the very peak for rookie picks is right after someone makes a surprise pick. When someone makes a pick that goes totally against consensus, the value of the next pick goes through the roof. For example, in a non-2QB league last year, the 1.01 took Luck instead of Richardson. The offers for 1.02 went through the roof - which wouldn't have happened had the 1.01 taken Richardson as expected.

Because of the already poor attitude about this year's draft, if I were looking to trade one of the high draft picks, I would probably look to trade it before the NFL draft, because I wouldn't want to risk having the top prospects going to bad situations, and further bring down the perceived value of the draft. For example, Lacy is widely considered the top RB prospect, if he goes to a team like the Chiefs which already have Charles, that would really bring down the draft further. Or if Patterson went to the Jets or the Bills, that would do the same thing. (Note: I am not saying any of those picks are likely, just giving examples.)

The NFL draft has a way of really screwing up our fantasy football plans, and with a draft that is already considered weak, if a couple of the top prospects go to fantasy football purgatory, no one will be looking to move up and/or acquire picks. If I were looking to trade my picks, if I got an offer that was really close to what I was hoping to get, I would probably jump on it.

 
'Biabreakable said:
'KCitons said:
I keep trying to move the 1.03 to the tune of everyone responding "this draft sucks, blah blah blah." I disagree, and when I'm about to make my pick, I believe I will have people begging for the pick and pay way more then what I'm asking currently.

But even though I can't move it I still feel as if it is getting more and more valuable with every waking day. Especially when 1.03 is exactly where people will start bidding on picks.
I kinda feel the same way about this draft. Not so much that it sucks, but that there will be a few more questions about fantasy relevance once the NFL draft is over.

I also think this draft is deeper at a few positions and could provide some good value in the mid/later rounds. If given a choice, I would rather have three 4th round picks instead of one 1st rounder.
You should be able to get more than 3 4th round picks for a 1st round pick. You should be able to get at least a 2nd and another pick for a 1st rounder. I think most everyone agrees that this draft class is deeper than usual due to the high number of juniors who declared. This depth could lead to some value picks in the 4th round but if you are not playing IDP I still see most of the prospects being gone by then. My list of draftable prospects does go 50 or so players deep right now but some of those players are going to be crossed off the list after the Nfl draft.

People should jump at the idea of giving 3 4th round picks for a 1st (if any coach has that many 4ths?) that is not good value for even the last 1st round pick of the round.

Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.

Now many people at this time are underwhelmed with the upcoming draft prospects so because of this I do not think it is a good time to be a seller of 2013 picks but a buyer of them. I think picks through the 3rd round will have value for teams that have room on their roster. In shallow roster leagues this will not be the case and some decent players will go undrafted.

I do not think you would have trouble at all selling your 1st for 2 3rds and a 4th for example if you did want to trade it down. What you could try for is something like a 2nd round pick in 2014 (similar to a 4th round value) a 3rd and 4th round pick in 2013. I think that would be decent value for the pick. For each trade you should be looking at specific players you would target with those picks before making a final decision on if the trade works out for you.

As others have said the value of draft picks will spike after the Nfl draft and we know where these players are going. It depends on your league but I have been able to move picks on draft day pretty well once people see who is falling to certain parts of the draft.

The best time to buy draft picks is right after the current years draft (or a week or so after) and during the regular season when rookie picks cannot fill hole in a roster.
Sorry, that wasn't very clear. I didn't mean I would take three 4th round picks for my 1st. Just that I feel the value is better in the 4th for this years draft. I'm seeing some mention of IDP and league size. Of course there would be a huge difference based on these variables. The other thing that I am dealing with, is the salary cap. All rookie picks salaries set based on where they are drafted. At least for this year, a 4th round player for $10k is a better fit, than a 1st rounder for $40k. (every team will have cap issues that play into trading picks as well)

With our draft being 2 weeks after the NFL draft, I'm thinking there will be very little drop. As opposed to the NFL draft being in April, and Fantasy drafts in August.

 
I always believe that draft picks are at their lowest value during the season. You don't know how the league will finish up, so their values are still unknown. On top of that, they can't help anybody during the year. After the season ends, people lose interest in football for a while, which is why the time after the SB and before NFL free agency kicks off is always the dead time in dynasty leagues.

After the combine, picks start to gain value, as teams start getting excited about the draft. The picks seem to keep gaining value up through the NFL draft, but whether the peak is before the NFL draft or right before the pick really depends on what happens. With a year like this year, where everyone is really down on the draft's elite talent level, if a couple of the prospects that people are high on go to bad situations, the pick values will really tank.

On the other hand, the very peak for rookie picks is right after someone makes a surprise pick. When someone makes a pick that goes totally against consensus, the value of the next pick goes through the roof. For example, in a non-2QB league last year, the 1.01 took Luck instead of Richardson. The offers for 1.02 went through the roof - which wouldn't have happened had the 1.01 taken Richardson as expected.

Because of the already poor attitude about this year's draft, if I were looking to trade one of the high draft picks, I would probably look to trade it before the NFL draft, because I wouldn't want to risk having the top prospects going to bad situations, and further bring down the perceived value of the draft. For example, Lacy is widely considered the top RB prospect, if he goes to a team like the Chiefs which already have Charles, that would really bring down the draft further. Or if Patterson went to the Jets or the Bills, that would do the same thing. (Note: I am not saying any of those picks are likely, just giving examples.)

The NFL draft has a way of really screwing up our fantasy football plans, and with a draft that is already considered weak, if a couple of the top prospects go to fantasy football purgatory, no one will be looking to move up and/or acquire picks. If I were looking to trade my picks, if I got an offer that was really close to what I was hoping to get, I would probably jump on it.
For similar reasons, I'd be looking to pick up late 1sts and 2nd round picks if people are scared of this class. It's all about the price and value, but on the whole picks in the 7-20 range hold more value relative to high picks this year than usual.
 
I was looking to trade a couple of draft picks for our upcoming (May) rookie draft. In doing so, I was trying to determine when would be the best time. Right now, there is a lot of unknown, so I feel the value is at its lowest. In my case, I am looking at trading this years picks for next years picks. I understand the overall draft class will determine some of the value now. But, should a 2nd round pick this year, be worth a second round pick next year. (especially since you don't know if it will be an early or late round pick)After the actual NFL draft, the landing spot for a player could increase or decrease what fantasy teams would consider "draftable" players per round. So, value should change for the early to mid 1st round picks, but I'm not sure how much it effects picks as you move through the next few rounds.The last opportunity would be during the draft. But, I still see this as being a gamble. If the draft doesn't unfold, you may find it difficult to move the pick when it is on the clock.What do other owners think, when it comes to trading current year draft picks for future draft picks? My feeling is that there is no "perfect" time. Anything you get over what you are offering is a win.
The NFL draft is what establishes the actual value of the rookie picks. Until we really know where a player lands it is all pretty much speculation (yes, the top 3-5 will not change that much, but sometimes the right player lands on the wrong team from a fantasy standpoint).From that point, value of the picks gradually increases and peaks shortly before your league draft. At that point there is pretty much standard agreement about the top 6-8 players (from rankings, message board polls, and rookie drafts already conducted post-NFL draft). Probably 2-3 days before your pick is the best time to shop it, as it will give you and other owners unpressured time to make offers and counter offers. I don't advise waiting until you are on the clock even though that quite often gives you the best deal (reason is that some people lose their nerve if they forced to make a decision with a short time limit).As far as current year picks versus future year picks, I understand 2014 is supposed to be a better draft class than this one - and while you may have a general idea of the value of the 2014 pick, the fact is you have no idea of who you really be getting. In contrast, after the NFL draft you have a player in a specific team situation and you make a decision accordingly. If I have a specific player that I want in mind before I make my current rookie pick, I will always prefer that over an unknown selection in a future year (an exception being something like having a 2013 2nd and offered a 2014 1st)
 
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On the other hand, the very peak for rookie picks is right after someone makes a surprise pick. When someone makes a pick that goes totally against consensus, the value of the next pick goes through the roof. For example, in a non-2QB league last year, the 1.01 took Luck instead of Richardson. The offers for 1.02 went through the roof - which wouldn't have happened had the 1.01 taken Richardson as expected.
This is a really good point. Once the draft gets its first bonehead, or even just suprise pick, then the following picks will start to gain value. Last year Michael Floyd slipped to the early 2nd round in my draft, and several owners were making offers.
 
The NFL draft is what establishes the actual value of the rookie picks. Until we really know where a player lands it is all pretty much speculation
I agree with this. We have an idea of how good players are, but the draft has a way of clearing things up, and giving a format for making draft rankings. A guy like Jonathan Dwyer comes to mind. Pre-draft some had him as a 1st round fantasy pick, after he was borderline undraftable. Last year, Lamar Miller was thought to be a 1st rounder until the draft rolled around.On the opposite end of the spectrum, guys like Hillman, Pead, and D. Thomas can skyrocket up fantasy draft boards after getting drafted to the right spot.I think this is why I have had more trouble trading pre-NFL-draft. Most owners want to see how the draft unfolds before they make a move.
 
'Biabreakable said:
Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.
I think the largest portion of NFL future picks being seen as having less value than current picks is due to lack of job security for NFL front offices. If your team tanks this year, you may get fired and not be around to reap the rewards of that future pick you acquired. I do think this is on the mind of a lot of GMs and coaches, and if we look we can find a lot of examples of teams suddenly changing from conservative philosophies and selling out to acquire talent when their jobs are on the line. But I don't see that having a parallel in fantasy, and the other reasons for NFL or fantasy to do it are minor. I think for us it truly comes down to what are the odds we get a better player with next year's pick(s) or this year's? Which is influenced by our perception of depth and quality of each year's rookie class, and as mentioned in here a few times, the odds that the pick you're trading for ends up being earlier or later once the next year's draft order is assigned, than what you gave up.I would tend to try to get a pick a round ahead still just because... why not, people who follow the NFL expect it? But I generally wouldn't give up a next year 1st for a 2nd this year under average conditions. I just mention the average conditions because in my own league, I'd actually trade a next year first for the 2.1 or 2.2 in most cases... just because our rookie salaries are set by round and the drop in price between rounds is more beneficial than the drop in talent over just a couple of draft spots.
 
As a general rule the closer to the fantasy draft you are, the more the pick is worth. It increases in value by a good bit after the NFL draft, and is probably at its most valuable right before the pick is on the clock

 
The NFL draft is what establishes the actual value of the rookie picks. Until we really know where a player lands it is all pretty much speculation (yes, the top 3-5 will not change that much, but sometimes the right player lands on the wrong team from a fantasy standpoint).From that point, value of the picks gradually increases and peaks shortly before your league draft. At that point there is pretty much standard agreement about the top 6-8 players (from rankings, message board polls, and rookie drafts already conducted post-NFL draft). Probably 2-3 days before your pick is the best time to shop it, as it will give you and other owners unpressured time to make offers and counter offers. I don't advise waiting until you are on the clock even though that quite often gives you the best deal (reason is that some people lose their nerve if they forced to make a decision with a short time limit).As far as current year picks versus future year picks, I understand 2014 is supposed to be a better draft class than this one - and while you may have a general idea of the value of the 2014 pick, the fact is you have no idea of who you really be getting. In contrast, after the NFL draft you have a player in a specific team situation and you make a decision accordingly. If I have a specific player that I want in mind before I make my current rookie pick, I will always prefer that over an unknown selection in a future year (an exception being something like having a 2013 2nd and offered a 2014 1st)
The draft does play a very important role, but as you said it can also hurt the value of picks. In a draft like this one where destinations are very uncertain I think the value of high picks are worth more now than after the draft. Right now everyone assumes that Lacy and Bernard going to ideal spots, etc. These are already priced in and their value will likely stay the same or go lower. Someone did point out that 'surprise' picks can change the values but in an experienced league these rarely happen. Know your league's tendency though and if you suspect someone of doing that then you might want to hold onto your high picks. While I've traded for 2014 picks I'm a little hesitant to call it greatly better overall. It will certainly have better players at the top but it's necessarily going to be tremendously better in the late 1st and 2nd. If someone I like is available in the late 1st this year I wouldn't hesitate to trade what I expect to be a late 1st next year.
 
This year especially, value will be higher after the draft, and then before and during your rookie draft (whenever that is).

Let's say for example you have pick 7. If you are trying to trade that pick rigth now, people will value that pick as their 7th ranked rookie.

When you are actually on the clock at pick 7, chances are every team has their top 7 ranked differently. So a few teams might have their 4th ranked guy still available, and you can get much more if that is the case.

A lot of years though the top few picks will have a lot of value as soon as you are able to trade them. No Richardson's, Lucks, RG3s, Blackmons, or Martin's this year though it seems, so this year more than others the value will increase after the draft. Maybe not by a LOT, cause the overall talent this year at the top end of the draft is still going to be the lowest it's been in quite some time, regardless of where players end up, but it will still go up.

 
One thing that can be a huge variable, is the ability of other owners in your league. I've seen some "WTF" trades of draft picks over the years, and it is usually tied to the one unpredictable owner in the league.

If all the owners are sharks, then it's going to be much more difficult to get the presumed value with your trades. Given the examples in this thread. I would trade for a 3rd rounder from this year and 1st rounder from next year, for my late 1st rounder this year. But, if the shoe was on the other foot, I'm not so sure I would make the same trade in the opposite direction.

With the NFL draft still a month away, I'm wondering if I should be trying to acquire more early picks. With the value so low now, I'm wondering if the same pick would be much more valuable in the days right before our fantasy draft. Kinda like day trading in the stock market. It would be a big gamble, but isn't that what fantasy football is all about? Swinging for the fences.

 
One thing that can be a huge variable, is the ability of other owners in your league. I've seen some "WTF" trades of draft picks over the years, and it is usually tied to the one unpredictable owner in the league.

If all the owners are sharks, then it's going to be much more difficult to get the presumed value with your trades. Given the examples in this thread. I would trade for a 3rd rounder from this year and 1st rounder from next year, for my late 1st rounder this year. But, if the shoe was on the other foot, I'm not so sure I would make the same trade in the opposite direction.

With the NFL draft still a month away, I'm wondering if I should be trying to acquire more early picks. With the value so low now, I'm wondering if the same pick would be much more valuable in the days right before our fantasy draft. Kinda like day trading in the stock market. It would be a big gamble, but isn't that what fantasy football is all about? Swinging for the fences.
Sometime it's minimizing risk, so that's why this game is so interesting.
 
'Biabreakable said:
Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.
I think the largest portion of NFL future picks being seen as having less value than current picks is due to lack of job security for NFL front offices. If your team tanks this year, you may get fired and not be around to reap the rewards of that future pick you acquired. I do think this is on the mind of a lot of GMs and coaches, and if we look we can find a lot of examples of teams suddenly changing from conservative philosophies and selling out to acquire talent when their jobs are on the line.
I agree. But I also think this is where a lot of mistakes are made as well. I think it is something to pay attention to and keep in context of the teams moves. For example the Chiefs went out and signed Winston a very good offensive tackle to a reasonable contract for a player of his ability. Now that the coach has been fired Winston cut and they now have another need a tackle if one of there in house guys isn't ready to take Winstons place. If the Chiefs were going to have a player to take his place then why did they sign Winston last season?

Coaching changes lead to wasted moves during the adjustment period. The 1st year of new HC should be the one where the coach has the longest leash and should be feeling less pressure to make moves that have an instant impact than a coach after a losing season or two that has them on the hotseat. That is what somewhat confused me about the moves made by the Chiefs. That resembles the short term moves like what I see with teams that have coaches on the hotseat. In win now mode.

But I don't see that having a parallel in fantasy, and the other reasons for NFL or fantasy to do it are minor. I think for us it truly comes down to what are the odds we get a better player with next year's pick(s) or this year's? Which is influenced by our perception of depth and quality of each year's rookie class, and as mentioned in here a few times, the odds that the pick you're trading for ends up being earlier or later once the next year's draft order is assigned, than what you gave up.

I would tend to try to get a pick a round ahead still just because... why not, people who follow the NFL expect it? But I generally wouldn't give up a next year 1st for a 2nd this year under average conditions.

I just mention the average conditions because in my own league, I'd actually trade a next year first for the 2.1 or 2.2 in most cases... just because our rookie salaries are set by round and the drop in price between rounds is more beneficial than the drop in talent over just a couple of draft spots.
Right. The variance of 32 teams compared to 12 is huge. 3 12 pick rounds is 36 picks or basically about the same amount of picks as 32. They are actually much closer in value than a 2nd round pick to a 1st round pick is in the Nfl draft. This does get crunched somewhat because FF will not have use for Oline or defensive players in a lot of leagues. So that is where it evens out somewhat again, everyone is drafting a smaller pool of positions. When you think about it that way a 2nd round pick is 13-24. It is still a very good pick compared to say pick 9. I think the main separation in actual value of the picks is just the top 5-6 picks being worth quite a bit more than the rest. So if my future 1st is 7 or later getting an early 2nd round pick this season for a 1st next season does not seem that bad to me as long as the pick does not end up top 5. If I think I will lose enough games to earn a top 5 pick the following season then I would view that differently.

When contracts are involved then you have another layer of value to evaluate on top of that.

I was reading this http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-nfl-draft-value-chart-part-i/ the other day about the performance of players in their 1st 5 years based on draft position. I thought this was interesting and I wonder if this data could perhaps be applied to rookie player rankings. I think the data would have to be broken out by position at least to be used that way. Perhaps a study could identify the success rate of players by draft position from this.

 
'Biabreakable said:
Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.
I think the largest portion of NFL future picks being seen as having less value than current picks is due to lack of job security for NFL front offices. If your team tanks this year, you may get fired and not be around to reap the rewards of that future pick you acquired. I do think this is on the mind of a lot of GMs and coaches, and if we look we can find a lot of examples of teams suddenly changing from conservative philosophies and selling out to acquire talent when their jobs are on the line.
I agree. But I also think this is where a lot of mistakes are made as well. I think it is something to pay attention to and keep in context of the teams moves. For example the Chiefs went out and signed Winston a very good offensive tackle to a reasonable contract for a player of his ability. Now that the coach has been fired Winston cut and they now have another need a tackle if one of there in house guys isn't ready to take Winstons place. If the Chiefs were going to have a player to take his place then why did they sign Winston last season?

Coaching changes lead to wasted moves during the adjustment period. The 1st year of new HC should be the one where the coach has the longest leash and should be feeling less pressure to make moves that have an instant impact than a coach after a losing season or two that has them on the hotseat. That is what somewhat confused me about the moves made by the Chiefs. That resembles the short term moves like what I see with teams that have coaches on the hotseat. In win now mode.

But I don't see that having a parallel in fantasy, and the other reasons for NFL or fantasy to do it are minor. I think for us it truly comes down to what are the odds we get a better player with next year's pick(s) or this year's? Which is influenced by our perception of depth and quality of each year's rookie class, and as mentioned in here a few times, the odds that the pick you're trading for ends up being earlier or later once the next year's draft order is assigned, than what you gave up.

I would tend to try to get a pick a round ahead still just because... why not, people who follow the NFL expect it? But I generally wouldn't give up a next year 1st for a 2nd this year under average conditions.

I just mention the average conditions because in my own league, I'd actually trade a next year first for the 2.1 or 2.2 in most cases... just because our rookie salaries are set by round and the drop in price between rounds is more beneficial than the drop in talent over just a couple of draft spots.
Right. The variance of 32 teams compared to 12 is huge. 3 12 pick rounds is 36 picks or basically about the same amount of picks as 32. They are actually much closer in value than a 2nd round pick to a 1st round pick is in the Nfl draft. This does get crunched somewhat because FF will not have use for Oline or defensive players in a lot of leagues. So that is where it evens out somewhat again, everyone is drafting a smaller pool of positions. When you think about it that way a 2nd round pick is 13-24. It is still a very good pick compared to say pick 9. I think the main separation in actual value of the picks is just the top 5-6 picks being worth quite a bit more than the rest. So if my future 1st is 7 or later getting an early 2nd round pick this season for a 1st next season does not seem that bad to me as long as the pick does not end up top 5. If I think I will lose enough games to earn a top 5 pick the following season then I would view that differently.

When contracts are involved then you have another layer of value to evaluate on top of that.

I was reading this http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-nfl-draft-value-chart-part-i/ the other day about the performance of players in their 1st 5 years based on draft position. I thought this was interesting and I wonder if this data could perhaps be applied to rookie player rankings. I think the data would have to be broken out by position at least to be used that way. Perhaps a study could identify the success rate of players by draft position from this.
interesting read. I'm not sure how you would be able to apply this to fantasy rankings due to NFL teams drafting some positions that fantasy leagues don't use (offensive line and some DL positions depending on league)My one concern with the chart would be how it relates to the specific position drafted. A lot of people believe taking a stud Defensive or Offensive Tackle in the first few picks is much safer than say a QB. While some of those linemen do bust out, I think the success ratio higher.

I know from my personal fantasy experience, offensive players taken in the 5th round of a 5 round rookie draft rarely make an impact on their teams. IDP players have a higher success ratio, but it usually isn't realized for a couple of years.

 
'Biabreakable said:
Nfl teams have a general rule that if they are trading a pick now for a future draft pick that the future pick is generally discounted a round due to the uncertainty and having to wait a year to use the resource. Keep in mind that this is with 32 teams not 12 so it is not a hard rule in FF but still something that I think should be given consideration. The value for a 1st rounder in 2013 is a 1st in 2014 plus (3rd-4th rounder) for a 1st round pick in 2013. I think the main difference is most FF leagues do not have 32 teams so the 2nd for a 1st type deals we see in the Nfl are not as good of business in FF where each round is only a third of the picks the Nfl has each round.
I think the largest portion of NFL future picks being seen as having less value than current picks is due to lack of job security for NFL front offices. If your team tanks this year, you may get fired and not be around to reap the rewards of that future pick you acquired. I do think this is on the mind of a lot of GMs and coaches, and if we look we can find a lot of examples of teams suddenly changing from conservative philosophies and selling out to acquire talent when their jobs are on the line.
I agree. But I also think this is where a lot of mistakes are made as well. I think it is something to pay attention to and keep in context of the teams moves. For example the Chiefs went out and signed Winston a very good offensive tackle to a reasonable contract for a player of his ability. Now that the coach has been fired Winston cut and they now have another need a tackle if one of there in house guys isn't ready to take Winstons place. If the Chiefs were going to have a player to take his place then why did they sign Winston last season?

Coaching changes lead to wasted moves during the adjustment period. The 1st year of new HC should be the one where the coach has the longest leash and should be feeling less pressure to make moves that have an instant impact than a coach after a losing season or two that has them on the hotseat. That is what somewhat confused me about the moves made by the Chiefs. That resembles the short term moves like what I see with teams that have coaches on the hotseat. In win now mode.

But I don't see that having a parallel in fantasy, and the other reasons for NFL or fantasy to do it are minor. I think for us it truly comes down to what are the odds we get a better player with next year's pick(s) or this year's? Which is influenced by our perception of depth and quality of each year's rookie class, and as mentioned in here a few times, the odds that the pick you're trading for ends up being earlier or later once the next year's draft order is assigned, than what you gave up.

I would tend to try to get a pick a round ahead still just because... why not, people who follow the NFL expect it? But I generally wouldn't give up a next year 1st for a 2nd this year under average conditions.

I just mention the average conditions because in my own league, I'd actually trade a next year first for the 2.1 or 2.2 in most cases... just because our rookie salaries are set by round and the drop in price between rounds is more beneficial than the drop in talent over just a couple of draft spots.
Right. The variance of 32 teams compared to 12 is huge. 3 12 pick rounds is 36 picks or basically about the same amount of picks as 32. They are actually much closer in value than a 2nd round pick to a 1st round pick is in the Nfl draft. This does get crunched somewhat because FF will not have use for Oline or defensive players in a lot of leagues. So that is where it evens out somewhat again, everyone is drafting a smaller pool of positions. When you think about it that way a 2nd round pick is 13-24. It is still a very good pick compared to say pick 9. I think the main separation in actual value of the picks is just the top 5-6 picks being worth quite a bit more than the rest. So if my future 1st is 7 or later getting an early 2nd round pick this season for a 1st next season does not seem that bad to me as long as the pick does not end up top 5. If I think I will lose enough games to earn a top 5 pick the following season then I would view that differently.

When contracts are involved then you have another layer of value to evaluate on top of that.

I was reading this http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-nfl-draft-value-chart-part-i/ the other day about the performance of players in their 1st 5 years based on draft position. I thought this was interesting and I wonder if this data could perhaps be applied to rookie player rankings. I think the data would have to be broken out by position at least to be used that way. Perhaps a study could identify the success rate of players by draft position from this.
interesting read. I'm not sure how you would be able to apply this to fantasy rankings due to NFL teams drafting some positions that fantasy leagues don't use (offensive line and some DL positions depending on league)My one concern with the chart would be how it relates to the specific position drafted. A lot of people believe taking a stud Defensive or Offensive Tackle in the first few picks is much safer than say a QB. While some of those linemen do bust out, I think the success ratio higher.

I know from my personal fantasy experience, offensive players taken in the 5th round of a 5 round rookie draft rarely make an impact on their teams. IDP players have a higher success ratio, but it usually isn't realized for a couple of years.
I have not seen one recently but there have been studies done on the success rate of players by position in the past. Those studies did find exactly what you said that some positions such as offensive tackle had a pretty high success rate compared to other positions. The highest bust rate coming from the WR position. I have not seen a study on this over the past 5 drafts or so however and that trend may have changed.
 
I'd say the pick is worth the most when you're on the clock with that pick. Two years ago I didn't think my early 3rd round pick in my 10 team league would be worth much leading up to the draft.....until the players started coming off the board and Cam Newton wasn't one of them. I had Cam as a low end first round pick on my board, but with trading my 1st and 2nd to move up and get Ingram I didn't think I'd have a shot of landing Cam....until he was still there.

That pick, at that time, was worth a lot to me because of who I could land with it....the problem was most if not all the other teams had passed on Cam so there wasn't a lot of trade value to other teams for it.

 
As for value, in my main league, we have a salary cap and franchise and transition tags which require first round picks in either of the next two years to even bid on those players as compensation for those players, so first rounders have a dual value and are slightly overvalued compared to other leagues.

For my league, if anyone wants a first round pick this year (or next for bidding purposes) and wants me to wait a year to be able to use my pick, it will cost them another future 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder.

What happens in that league, in terms of the most action, but maybe not the most value for a pick, is after the NFL draft and the draft order is usually pretty close to set in stone well before a draft. In that league we have one league gossip and he is bugging the crap out of the top draft pick holders right after the NFL draft to get the order down. Within a few days, people know what the draft picks will be barring any trades.

That being said, I would agree that once a pick is made that is against the norm, then the value shoots through the roof. Couple years ago, I was sitting on the 2nd and 3rd picks with both AJ Green and Julio Jones there. This is a 2RB and 2WR league with no flex and no PPR, so RB's are ridiculously overvalued. Everyone assumed I would pick one WR and RB. And that was my plan until about a week before the draft and I took both WR's. There was a trade in place for the 4th pick to get one of those WR's that the two owners kept secret that was blown and then a flurry of other dealing done after I went WR, WR.

 
We also have future picks tied to our Transition tag. As it stands now, I identified a few teams that have the picks necessary this year and next. All of these teams are without a first round pick this year (some do not have a second round pick either). My offers to trade my late 1st this year for a 3rd or 4th this year and their 1st rounder next year has been met with laughs.

Maybe they feel the same way about this years draft as I do. Over half the league is without a first round pick this year. So, if someone slips through the cracks, I'm hoping the value will increase.

 

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