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When is it acceptable to reach for Finley? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
- Start date
skillz
Footballguy
If he is there at 4.5 I am grabbing him in a 12-team non-PPR league. I just know he will be gone by the time I pick again in Round 5. I just like him more than a lot of the WR2's that are out there at that point in the draft and I can always find a decent WR2 later in the draft so Finley is worth the risk given his upside.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I don't consider either round to be a reach, but I'm not a guy who drafts strictly according to ADP.
Woogie Lee
Footballguy
i'm looking at him as my #2WR in a non-PPR league.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
There is no "acceptable."
The answer is, it depends. It depends on 1) when you think it's plausible another team might take him, and 2) what you project for him and how valuable that projection makes him.
If you think he'll put up 800/8, but some team might grab him as early as the end of the 4th round, would it be worth reaching for him in the top part of the 4th? Probably not.
If you think he'll put up 1400/13, and you think someone else might grab him in the 3rd, he'd probably be worth taking in the 2nd, if you were confident in your projection.
Guys who you think will possess extreme value relative to their peers are worth reaching for, even at the risk of ridicule from your leaguemates. The ideal, of course, is to wait as long as you feel you safely can while still more-or-less guaranteeing you get your guy.
No sane person is projecting Laurent Robinson for 2500 yards and 30 TD's. But if you were (and had very good reasons to feel confident in that projection), and ONE other guy in your league was doing the same, and that guy was eyeing him in the 2nd round, then Laurent Robinson ought to be your first round pick.
The answer is, it depends. It depends on 1) when you think it's plausible another team might take him, and 2) what you project for him and how valuable that projection makes him.
If you think he'll put up 800/8, but some team might grab him as early as the end of the 4th round, would it be worth reaching for him in the top part of the 4th? Probably not.
If you think he'll put up 1400/13, and you think someone else might grab him in the 3rd, he'd probably be worth taking in the 2nd, if you were confident in your projection.
Guys who you think will possess extreme value relative to their peers are worth reaching for, even at the risk of ridicule from your leaguemates. The ideal, of course, is to wait as long as you feel you safely can while still more-or-less guaranteeing you get your guy.
No sane person is projecting Laurent Robinson for 2500 yards and 30 TD's. But if you were (and had very good reasons to feel confident in that projection), and ONE other guy in your league was doing the same, and that guy was eyeing him in the 2nd round, then Laurent Robinson ought to be your first round pick.
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Insoxicated
Got my balls busted for Finley at 4.13 in one leagueGot my balls busted for Charles at 6.07 in another league "My paper here has him listed as a "biggest bust" candidate!" Ignore ridicule from leaguemates. If you frequent this place and read the FBG daily email every morning, you're going to be among the most informed people at your draft. Just shake it off and laugh "I know I know... I'm a sucker for a hunch". The thing NOT to do is puff out your chest and play the "my fantasypenis is bigger than yours" game.
After a few years of success, guys will start reading over their notes wondering what they missed when you "reach" for a guy...instead of busting your balls for it.
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Woogie Lee
Footballguy
What if Finley has a better season then those two?
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Insoxicated
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
Pipes
Footballguy
The problem is what if Finley is the 1st TE off the board? Alot of people have Finley as their #1 TE so this strategy pretty much goes out the window.If you really want Finley I think you need to pull the trigger in the early to mid 3rd round. You may be able to get him in the 4th but I think you're taking a chance there.Then you got even more value
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Insoxicated
He asked "what if he has a better season than those two". That's a little different than asking "what if he gets picked before those two".The problem is what if Finley is the 1st TE off the board? Alot of people have Finley as their #1 TE so this strategy pretty much goes out the window.If you really want Finley I think you need to pull the trigger in the early to mid 3rd round. You may be able to get him in the 4th but I think you're taking a chance there.Then you got even more value
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Good post. Chances are if you're paying attn you will know when following the above guideline.Took him in the middle of rd 5 last week and knew it was now or never. Clark went late 4th, Gates early 5th then me w/ Finley middle 5th. No regrets, either you want him or you don't.Good luck with your draft.
davidwb
Footballguy
It is never polite to reach -- you should politely ask for him to be passed to you.
;-)
But if you must reach, you'll probably have to go in the 3rd or 4th rounds if you have knowlegable competitors -- 5th or 6th otherwise. This is based on 6 real drafts (not mocks) that I have been in this year.
;-)
But if you must reach, you'll probably have to go in the 3rd or 4th rounds if you have knowlegable competitors -- 5th or 6th otherwise. This is based on 6 real drafts (not mocks) that I have been in this year.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I have the first pick in my league where TEs are not mandatory but included as WRs in a 2RB/2WR/1Flex format.
Im trying to gauge where Finley will go and target him as a WR2. Looking at our draft last year the first TE went in the 6th. I would love to take Finley at the 6/7 turn and am drinking the kool aid that he could perform as a lower end WR1 this year.
Im trying to gauge where Finley will go and target him as a WR2. Looking at our draft last year the first TE went in the 6th. I would love to take Finley at the 6/7 turn and am drinking the kool aid that he could perform as a lower end WR1 this year.
RalphMouth
Footballguy
I'm seriously considering taking him at 3.00
I have the 12th pick in a 12 team non ppr league- we do third round reversal
so my team may start out with a top 4 WR (Calvin Johnson or Austin) followed by maybe Ryan Matthews-
why not roll the dice on Finley at the top of the 3rd ?
unless he gets hurt ... I think his low end stats will be 1000 yds & 10 TDs... but his upside is scary
to me he looks like Green Bay's #2 option... maybe #1 in the red zone
I have the 12th pick in a 12 team non ppr league- we do third round reversal
so my team may start out with a top 4 WR (Calvin Johnson or Austin) followed by maybe Ryan Matthews-
why not roll the dice on Finley at the top of the 3rd ?
unless he gets hurt ... I think his low end stats will be 1000 yds & 10 TDs... but his upside is scary
to me he looks like Green Bay's #2 option... maybe #1 in the red zone
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
I think I'd have trouble taking him ahead of Gates. Gates, with his history of consistency AND his emergence as the likely #1 option with all the Vincent Jackson chaos, is probably the safest TE gamble in my lifetime.On the flip, with Garcon emerging, A. Gonzalez back, and incredible depth all around among pass catchers in Indy, I'd be shocked to see DC repeat his 2009.I rate 'em Gates > Finley > Clark. Although, in my drafts, I wasn't comfortable enough with the value of any to nab them where they went.
theplayer11
Footballguy
I never reach for a TE..will be happy with Celek or Gonzalez way later in the draft Saw a few posts about Finley putting up WR2 numbers, don't know how that is relevant. What matters is how much Finley outscores other TEs by.
texasbirdfan
Footballguy
Fantasy Football Index had him in PPR leagues I think around 10th among all receivers and tight ends in yesterda's report update
If you can get WR1 performance out of a TE, then he should be going in the 2nd round with the rest of the WR1s, or even in the first round above the other WR1s because you can start him at TE.
Scruff Mcgruff
Footballguy
I have the 7th pick in a PPR league. Targeting a TE in the 4th, I'm hoping it's Gates but that is unlikely so if either Finley or Davis is there, It will be a tough decision. If Crabtree is still hanging around, he's the only WR I'd take over those two.
Zegras11
Footballguy
The question is... If you take hinm round three, can you get the RB's and WR's in rd 4 and 5 that you need? I say yes.I have 6th pick coming up and want to start Gore-Jennings-Finley.The problem is what if Finley is the 1st TE off the board? Alot of people have Finley as their #1 TE so this strategy pretty much goes out the window.If you really want Finley I think you need to pull the trigger in the early to mid 3rd round. You may be able to get him in the 4th but I think you're taking a chance there.Then you got even more valueWhat's the issue here?
CalBear
Footballguy
Well, except for 10 years of Tony Gonzalez.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I heard a rumor that Mendenhall broke his arm. Should probably bump Finley up a couple spots...
Man In The Box
Footballguy
So, now 1000/10 is Finley's floor? The Jermichael Finley hype train has officially passed and lapped the Jahvid Best hype train.
