zallen
Footballguy
It seems like this year in particular many people are reexamining the old conventional wisdom of drafting RBs early, and perhaps also the reluctance to draft QBs early.
Insofar as the question of how early to draft Brady or Manning in concerned, I have a different take which I've yet to hear anyone mention. It goes like this:
[My League Info: 10 team redraft league (yardage-based; non-PPR). Roster limit: 14 players. Starters: QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, PK & DST. 10 points for all TDs, whether rushing, receiving or passing. 10 point bonus for rushing/receiving over 100 yds or passing over 300 yds.]
In my opinion, aside from the fact that Brady and Manning are almost uniformly recognized as the top 2 QBs, they have one additional and very critical distinction from all other QBs: THEY ARE A VIRTUAL LOCK TO PLAY 16 GAMES. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think either has missed a game in their careers. And I see no reason to bet against that streak. Can you say that about any RB? I think not.
Okay, so at this point you're thinking "That's your different take?!" Well, no. Here's the important point I don't hear anyone talking about: I think Brady and Manning uniquely allow an owner to carry them as the sole QB on his roster (other than a one-time bye filler). That's not much of a gamble if you ask me. They're unlikely to get hurt, and you would never think about sitting them. Consequently, if you draft Brady or Manning, that frees up a roster spot for an additional RB or WR . . and later free agent pick ups!
If you're playing in a relatively shallow league as I do, that's a big deal! My team was a case in point last year. For years I had religiously taken a RB in the 1st round. But after struggling mightily at the QB position the year before, I took Manning as the first QB off the board at 1.08. (I know, should've picked Brady.) Didn't draft another QB. Decided my year would rise or fall on Manning's shoulders. The additional roster flexibility this gave me to more aggressively make free agent pick ups was pure gold. Among other moves, I was able to pick up Derek Anderson (who I later traded for Willie Parker) and Ryan Grant. On the backs of these pick ups, I was able to win our league championship. In fact, in our championship round, I started only 2 players from my original draft: Manning and my DST. I seriously doubt that would have happened if I were forced to fill another roster spot with a backup QB (as I would have had to do if I drafted a more marginal starting QB).
When you consider the additional roster spot flexibility Brady and Manning uniquely provide, the high probability they'll again score more fantasy points than any other QBs, your ability to leave them as your no-brainer starter each week, and the always dicey injury risk for RBs . . . I say Brady or Manning are easily worthy of a 1st round pick. We haven't yet drawn for our league draft order (we randomly draw each year), but I've already decided I'll pick Brady or Manning (in that order) in the 1st round (as my sole QB draft selection). I might think twice about taking LT or Peterson at the 1 or 2 pick if that's my draft position, but otherwise that's my unwaivering 1st round draft plan. I will definitely pick Brady as early as 1.03, and possibly even higher. Do I think he'll score 50 TDs again? Not at all. But if he as only 75% of the stats he racked up last year, he'll be well worth the investment.
Am I crazy?
Insofar as the question of how early to draft Brady or Manning in concerned, I have a different take which I've yet to hear anyone mention. It goes like this:
[My League Info: 10 team redraft league (yardage-based; non-PPR). Roster limit: 14 players. Starters: QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, PK & DST. 10 points for all TDs, whether rushing, receiving or passing. 10 point bonus for rushing/receiving over 100 yds or passing over 300 yds.]
In my opinion, aside from the fact that Brady and Manning are almost uniformly recognized as the top 2 QBs, they have one additional and very critical distinction from all other QBs: THEY ARE A VIRTUAL LOCK TO PLAY 16 GAMES. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think either has missed a game in their careers. And I see no reason to bet against that streak. Can you say that about any RB? I think not.
Okay, so at this point you're thinking "That's your different take?!" Well, no. Here's the important point I don't hear anyone talking about: I think Brady and Manning uniquely allow an owner to carry them as the sole QB on his roster (other than a one-time bye filler). That's not much of a gamble if you ask me. They're unlikely to get hurt, and you would never think about sitting them. Consequently, if you draft Brady or Manning, that frees up a roster spot for an additional RB or WR . . and later free agent pick ups!
If you're playing in a relatively shallow league as I do, that's a big deal! My team was a case in point last year. For years I had religiously taken a RB in the 1st round. But after struggling mightily at the QB position the year before, I took Manning as the first QB off the board at 1.08. (I know, should've picked Brady.) Didn't draft another QB. Decided my year would rise or fall on Manning's shoulders. The additional roster flexibility this gave me to more aggressively make free agent pick ups was pure gold. Among other moves, I was able to pick up Derek Anderson (who I later traded for Willie Parker) and Ryan Grant. On the backs of these pick ups, I was able to win our league championship. In fact, in our championship round, I started only 2 players from my original draft: Manning and my DST. I seriously doubt that would have happened if I were forced to fill another roster spot with a backup QB (as I would have had to do if I drafted a more marginal starting QB).
When you consider the additional roster spot flexibility Brady and Manning uniquely provide, the high probability they'll again score more fantasy points than any other QBs, your ability to leave them as your no-brainer starter each week, and the always dicey injury risk for RBs . . . I say Brady or Manning are easily worthy of a 1st round pick. We haven't yet drawn for our league draft order (we randomly draw each year), but I've already decided I'll pick Brady or Manning (in that order) in the 1st round (as my sole QB draft selection). I might think twice about taking LT or Peterson at the 1 or 2 pick if that's my draft position, but otherwise that's my unwaivering 1st round draft plan. I will definitely pick Brady as early as 1.03, and possibly even higher. Do I think he'll score 50 TDs again? Not at all. But if he as only 75% of the stats he racked up last year, he'll be well worth the investment.
Am I crazy?
You can have a combo of either:1) Brees/Romo/Palmer/Ben + elite RB2) Brady/Manning + second tier/unproven RBWhile Brady/Manning is a lock for ~25-30pts a week I would be concerned about the production from the RB you need to take as a sacrifice. I think in the long run the first option provides a better chance of higher and more consistent points per week. If you're in an 8 team league however I would be happy with something like Brady and Lynch.
In my league with the same scoring as you except no PPR, LT2 had 296 and Brady had 466 through week 16 since that is our championship week.
