When to Take Peyton (1 Viewer)

[rascal]

Let's assume standard FBG scoring with 12 teams. Starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, K, D.

I was just in a serious mock draft and picked 10th overall. I picked Manning in the second round and felt after the draft that my team would have been better if I had not picked him at that point.

So how far do let Peyton drop before you take him? Personally if I'm drafting 4-5th overall and he is still available for my second pick I don't know if I'll be able to say no. But what about 6-9th?

 

[The Mechanic]

Let's assume standard FBG scoring with 12 teams. Starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, K, D.I was just in a serious mock draft and picked 10th overall. I picked Manning in the second round and felt after the draft that my team would have been better if I had not picked him at that point.So how far do let Peyton drop before you take him? Personally if I'm drafting 4-5th overall and he is still available for my second pick I don't know if I'll be able to say no. But what about 6-9th?

Post the mock draft site, curious to see "The Serious" picks.Personally, I took Peyton at the 8th spot last year...didn't really hurt too much but I got a little lucky with my RB choices later....Rudi, M Anderson, Don't know if I'd do it again though?

 

[David Yudkin]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

 

[The Mechanic]

And I don't disagree...BUT in a RB heavy league it's hard to make up the roster. This year may be a lot diffrent with the depth and commitee approach of RB's and strong WR's early, I just hope I do not have to make the dicision on him again.

 

[Z-Dog]

Depends on the rules, of course, but I've got no problems with Peyton in the late first in your setup. Of course, the only point in going after Peyton, imo anyway, is if you believe he will have 30+ TDs. In 9 seasons he's done that only twice.

 

[dapunisher]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

I hope that happens in my draft. As far as the thread starter's question, it depends on the scoring system. My league gives 3 pts/passing TD, so Peyton might be taken at the 1/2 round turn. Maybe.

 

[salmonstud]

I would only take Manning if he slipped to the middle of the 2nd round.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

According to Anstports, For 12 team leagues with standard scoring he's averaging the 17th person off the board:

1. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.04.82 1.04 3.05 05.31 76

First round seems too early to me. I'll take him late second at the soonest.

 

[Shiver44]

I wouldn't take him, let someone else reach on him. Peyton has never been the best fantasy QB in any given season, in 4 pt per pass td leagues.

 

[djcolts]

At least 3rd round for me. And, since I live in Indy, there's no chance in Hades that he drops that far.

But, at least this thread reminded me to bump the "when is the QBBC article coming out thread."

 

[David Yudkin]

I wouldn't take him, let someone else reach on him. Peyton has never been the best fantasy QB in any given season, in 4 pt per pass td leagues.

While technically true, in 2004 he ranked #1 in ppg and didn't rank #1 because he sat the last game. This year, IMO, he is the clear #1 by a fair amount heading into the season. I started a thread on Manning weeks ago and felt that the running game will be worse than normal, the defense will not be as solid, the schedule will be tougher, and bottom line Manning's stats will go up.What that translates into and where someone wants to draft him is a personal preference. I think there are far worse picks than Manning out there in the range he's getting drafted in, but you need some savy in managing the rest of the draft for it to work out right. For example, if you take Manning early, you really can't afford to take a TE early too.I've also seen guys draft Manning and then draft 2 other QB in the mid rounds, which is defeating the purpose of taking Manning. If you were going to draft QBs in the 7th and 9th rounds, you wouldn't need to draft Manning.

 

[John Mamula]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

wow

 

[MLBrandow]

Let's assume standard FBG scoring with 12 teams. Starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, K, D.I was just in a serious mock draft and picked 10th overall. I picked Manning in the second round and felt after the draft that my team would have been better if I had not picked him at that point.So how far do let Peyton drop before you take him? Personally if I'm drafting 4-5th overall and he is still available for my second pick I don't know if I'll be able to say no. But what about 6-9th?

For me, you simply don't draft him. Palmer is equal in value and can be had 2-3 rounds later.Everyone seems to think that Manning is going to throw 49 TDs again since Edge is gone. It's a misconception, and he's living on his reliable top-3 finish. Problem is, he's likely to finish there again this season, and I see no reason as such to take him in the first or even 2nd round. I would grab him on the turn if he were available in the 3rd honestly.While it's tempting, and it might feel great to grab Manning at 2.05 per say, how good will it feel when at 4.05 you're staring at Carson Palmer, but instead have to take a Donald Driver or someone.Ask yourself what's better? Manning/Driver or Palmer/Holt?People also argue the same thing about LT. He has never finished #1 overall, yet consistently goes #1 overall. In fact, he's finished 3rd for each of the past four years, a model of consistency.Yet people legitimize him as the #1 overall pick because of his reliability. While he may not finish first overall, he presents significantly less risk, because he is practically a sure-fire for a top-3 finish.That said, you vear away from that logic when you try to apply it to Manning and QBs.You see, while LT is only being drafted perhaps 2-3 picks out of place at first overall, Manning is potentially being drafted 2-3 rounds out of place when he's taken in the first or early 2nd.You see the problem? It's a chess game of ADP and value, and Manning is consistently overrated, despite his phenomenal quarterbacking.

 

[John Mamula]

Let's assume standard FBG scoring with 12 teams. Starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, K, D.I was just in a serious mock draft and picked 10th overall. I picked Manning in the second round and felt after the draft that my team would have been better if I had not picked him at that point.So how far do let Peyton drop before you take him? Personally if I'm drafting 4-5th overall and he is still available for my second pick I don't know if I'll be able to say no. But what about 6-9th?

For me, you simply don't draft him. Palmer is equal in value and can be had 2-3 rounds later.Everyone seems to think that Manning is going to throw 49 TDs again since Edge is gone. It's a misconception, and he's living on his reliable top-3 finish. Problem is, he's likely to finish there again this season, and I see no reason as such to take him in the first or even 2nd round. I would grab him on the turn if he were available in the 3rd honestly.While it's tempting, and it might feel great to grab Manning at 2.05 per say, how good will it feel when at 4.05 you're staring at Carson Palmer, but instead have to take a Donald Driver or someone.Ask yourself what's better? Manning/Driver or Palmer/Holt?People also argue the same thing about LT. He has never finished #1 overall, yet consistently goes #1 overall. In fact, he's finished 3rd for each of the past four years, a model of consistency.Yet people legitimize him as the #1 overall pick because of his reliability. While he may not finish first overall, he presents significantly less risk, because he is practically a sure-fire for a top-3 finish.That said, you vear away from that logic when you try to apply it to Manning and QBs.You see, while LT is only being drafted perhaps 2-3 picks out of place at first overall, Manning is potentially being drafted 2-3 rounds out of place when he's taken in the first or early 2nd.You see the problem? It's a chess game of ADP and value, and Manning is consistently overrated, despite his phenomenal quarterbacking.

 

[duaneok66]

Let's assume standard FBG scoring with 12 teams. Starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, K, D.I was just in a serious mock draft and picked 10th overall. I picked Manning in the second round and felt after the draft that my team would have been better if I had not picked him at that point.So how far do let Peyton drop before you take him? Personally if I'm drafting 4-5th overall and he is still available for my second pick I don't know if I'll be able to say no. But what about 6-9th?

For me, you simply don't draft him. Palmer is equal in value and can be had 2-3 rounds later.Everyone seems to think that Manning is going to throw 49 TDs again since Edge is gone. It's a misconception, and he's living on his reliable top-3 finish. Problem is, he's likely to finish there again this season, and I see no reason as such to take him in the first or even 2nd round. I would grab him on the turn if he were available in the 3rd honestly.While it's tempting, and it might feel great to grab Manning at 2.05 per say, how good will it feel when at 4.05 you're staring at Carson Palmer, but instead have to take a Donald Driver or someone.Ask yourself what's better? Manning/Driver or Palmer/Holt?People also argue the same thing about LT. He has never finished #1 overall, yet consistently goes #1 overall. In fact, he's finished 3rd for each of the past four years, a model of consistency.Yet people legitimize him as the #1 overall pick because of his reliability. While he may not finish first overall, he presents significantly less risk, because he is practically a sure-fire for a top-3 finish.That said, you vear away from that logic when you try to apply it to Manning and QBs.You see, while LT is only being drafted perhaps 2-3 picks out of place at first overall, Manning is potentially being drafted 2-3 rounds out of place when he's taken in the first or early 2nd.You see the problem? It's a chess game of ADP and value, and Manning is consistently overrated, despite his phenomenal quarterbacking.

It would be a great post, save the fact that Palmer even admits that he isn't ready yet . . .

 

[SSOG]

Agreed. I don't get all of the "Palmer's every bit as good as Manning" arguements.

Palmer has *ONCE* produced Manning-like numbers. Palmer has finished as the 20th ranked and 1st ranked QB. Manning has finished as the 9/4/3/3/4/2/2/3 ranked QB. Palmer has finished 178 and 20 in overall VBD. Manning has finished higher than Palmer's best finish four times, including once finishing as the second best player in fantasy football. Palmer has NEVER thrown for 4000 yards. Manning did it an NFL-record 6 straight times.

Palmer's value was only so high last year based on his 32 TD passes. That is an absurd number- a number that Peyton Manning, for all of his statistical prowess, has only topped twice. In my mind, in all likelihood, that number is a fluke and Palmer's going to toss 26-27 TDs this year (if he plays all 16 games). Carson Palmer has never thrown for more than 7.5 yards per attempt (a number Manning's matched or exceeded 6 times). Even if we completely discount his injury risk, he's nowhere near as good of an option as Manning. Simply too many questions.

Throw in the injury questions- which are looking worse and worse every day after non-stop glowing reports- and it's clear what you're getting in Palmer. You're getting a guy who has a ceiling almost sort of kind of as high as Peyton Manning's (although, let's be honest, after that 49 TD season it's hard to say anyone has a ceiling as high as Manning's), and a floor that's nowhere NEAR as high as Manning's. Basically, you're paying a discounted price for a discounted version of Peyton Manning.

I'm not a fan of taking QBs high, but it's a simple fact this year that, with the top 4-5 QBs, you get exactly what you pay for.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

According to Anstports, For 12 team leagues with standard scoring he's averaging the 17th person off the board:

1. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.04.82 1.04 3.05 05.31 76

First round seems too early to me. I'll take him late second at the soonest.

I pick 8th in my high stakes league this year and am looking at the possibility of seeing Manning sitting there at 2.5. Assuming ADP holds, I will have taken either SJax, Rudi, or Lamont Jordan in round 1 and will be looking at a possible choice between Manning, Holt, Chad Johnson, and maybe Westbrook at 2.5 (non-PPR) - at this point I just might take Manning despite MLBrandow's legitimate argument to the contrary because I believe that by the time we draft (8/26) - Palmer will have already seen the field in the preseason and I doubt he lasts until 3.8. As I have had the best team in the league save for the QB position 3 of the last 4 years only to see my playoff hopes blown up by inconsistent QB play (Trent Green, then Brunell last year, after losing Bulger and Griese on the same day) - I like the idea of having a rock back there at QB who never gets hurt and is going to give you 250 yards and 2 TDs just about every week.

 

[The Mechanic]

Peyton has gone in the first round in every draft I have been in this year . . .

According to Anstports, For 12 team leagues with standard scoring he's averaging the 17th person off the board:

1. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.04.82 1.04 3.05 05.31 76

First round seems too early to me. I'll take him late second at the soonest.

I pick 8th in my high stakes league this year and am looking at the possibility of seeing Manning sitting there at 2.5. Assuming ADP holds, I will have taken either SJax, Rudi, or Lamont Jordan in round 1 and will be looking at a possible choice between Manning, Holt, Chad Johnson, and maybe Westbrook at 2.5 (non-PPR) - at this point I just might take Manning despite MLBrandow's legitimate argument to the contrary because I believe that by the time we draft (8/26) - Palmer will have already seen the field in the preseason and I doubt he lasts until 3.8. As I have had the best team in the league save for the QB position 3 of the last 4 years only to see my playoff hopes blown up by inconsistent QB play (Trent Green, then Brunell last year, after losing Bulger and Griese on the same day) - I like the idea of having a rock back there at QB who never gets hurt and is going to give you 250 yards and 2 TDs just about every week.

Rocks are good at the QB position. Hopefully he's not on the bench for the last 3/4 of the game at FF playoff time because his team has made the NFL playoffs and they (his team) don't want to risk injuries.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Unless you expect him to repeat his 2005 numbers (few repeat record breaking numbers) then he shouldn't be touched before the 3rd round. Peyton has been right around that 4300 yard 28 TD mark almost his entire career and was always drafted as a 3rd rounder. He regressed back to that norm this past year, 4300/28 is not worth more than a 3rd rounder out of a QB.

 

[The Jerk]

Agreed. I don't get all of the "Palmer's every bit as good as Manning" arguements.Palmer has *ONCE* produced Manning-like numbers. Palmer has finished as the 20th ranked and 1st ranked QB. Manning has finished as the 9/4/3/3/4/2/2/3 ranked QB. Palmer has finished 178 and 20 in overall VBD. Manning has finished higher than Palmer's best finish four times, including once finishing as the second best player in fantasy football. Palmer has NEVER thrown for 4000 yards. Manning did it an NFL-record 6 straight times.Palmer's value was only so high last year based on his 32 TD passes. That is an absurd number- a number that Peyton Manning, for all of his statistical prowess, has only topped twice. In my mind, in all likelihood, that number is a fluke and Palmer's going to toss 26-27 TDs this year (if he plays all 16 games). Carson Palmer has never thrown for more than 7.5 yards per attempt (a number Manning's matched or exceeded 6 times). Even if we completely discount his injury risk, he's nowhere near as good of an option as Manning. Simply too many questions.Throw in the injury questions- which are looking worse and worse every day after non-stop glowing reports- and it's clear what you're getting in Palmer. You're getting a guy who has a ceiling almost sort of kind of as high as Peyton Manning's (although, let's be honest, after that 49 TD season it's hard to say anyone has a ceiling as high as Manning's), and a floor that's nowhere NEAR as high as Manning's. Basically, you're paying a discounted price for a discounted version of Peyton Manning.I'm not a fan of taking QBs high, but it's a simple fact this year that, with the top 4-5 QBs, you get exactly what you pay for.

Excellent points. One of the key reasons Manning is clearly the #1 QB on the board is his durability. You may or my not believe that he will have an uptick in his numbers due to Edge. You may also believe Palmer will be healthy enough to start the season for the Bengals. However, it is not logical to ignore the fact that Palmer had a major knee injury in January. Even if he starts Week 1, the Bengals figure to protect him and pass slightly less frequently than last season. Also, even if he had not been injured, Marvin Lewis has stated he would like to have a better run/pass balance this season. No link, sorry, and it was nothing emphatic, but it was said. (Someone help me out if you can find this quote. Thanks.)Targeting Palmer is a legitimate strategy, but pretending he comes with the same risk level as Manning is not a good strategy, and it isn't only the knee. Palmer is not sliding under the radar, especially by the time most leagues draft in 3-4 weeks, so others may also be planning the same approach. So you better have a contingency plan in case he gets picked right before your planned selection.If you want to be a drafter who targets specific people to avoid at all costs and get at all costs, go for it. I don't go that route. I go into each draft prepared to take any player at my perceived value point for that player.

 

[Justloveit]

What about in a 2QB league? Would you take Manning if you missed out on a top 5 pick?