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When to target Julio? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
1st round
Captain Hook
Footballguy
He went at 2.07 in a current PPR 12 team draft and that was before Marshall or Jennings so the question is whether YOU need/want to draft a particular player (Julio) or build a better roster or draft a more proven wide receiver
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I like him as a top 5 WR this year, but then it depends so much on the specifics of your league scoring, #of flex, etc. as to where that ranks him vs. the other positions. I'd say in most leagues late 2nd/early 3rd round sounds about right, but I could see as early as early 2nd if the top WRs are going ahead of most of the QBs, TEs and 2nd tier RBs.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
some people draft on pure talent, I like to draft to win the league.
Sounds like Julio is vastly over-valued and people seem to forget to keep dynasty/re-draft separate.
kids a beast no doubt, but a first rounder? even a 2nd? I guess he wont be on many of my teams this season
Sounds like Julio is vastly over-valued and people seem to forget to keep dynasty/re-draft separate.
kids a beast no doubt, but a first rounder? even a 2nd? I guess he wont be on many of my teams this season
mrip541
Footballguy
I've done a lot of mocks and something like 5 real drafts so far. Julio rarely makes it past the first few picks in round 3. People are starting to take him in middle of round 2. I kept thinking he might fall to me in the late 3rd and he never does.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Guys like Julio, Green, Richardson, etc won't be on a ton of my redraft teams this year. Happens every year with the "sexy" young guys.I just don't see that with Roddy and Tony G there. I could see top 10ish though which is still great, but top 3ish with another stud across from you along with a still dangerous TE is very rare. Possible, but rare.
I'd bet he lasts till middle-end of 3rd, but if you want to be sure then take him in the late second or early 3rd (depending on your draft slot)
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree.
Shutout
Footballguy
Thinking people who take Julio above AJ or Fitz will be kicking themselves later.Fitz played in the worst possible scenrio you could as a WR and still has a floor that only about 20 WR in the league can stand on and then, Fitz being Fitz, always seems to do better than what is expected.People are SO down on AJ and citing injuries. But Julio has had his own injuries in his short time in the league. Why mark one down so far on it and ignore it for the other? And AJ has proved he can lead the league. Heck, he IS THE Houston passing game. It all goes through him when they seriously want to stretch the field. And with foster and that defense, you KNOW beyond a shadow of a doubt that withAJ you are going to get 3-4 LEGIT deep bomb play actions a game and he's a solid bet to convert 1 or 2 of them into a HUGE play. Aside from Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and a SMALL handful of WRs in this league, there really is no better 1-play difference maker for fantasy than AJ. in that offense, he can put up 70 yards and a TD on virtually any series on offense. Julio is fine and young and a hot name, but in my lineup each and every week, I would take either fitz or AJ.
Its all about having faith in your projections. If you have him projected as a potential 2nd Rd pick then take him! I guess what it boils down to is you knowing your league and league mates Do you think he will be available to you in round 3 if you pass on him and you miss out on a great season you will be pissed but if you take him and he only plays 8 games you will be pissed! This is what makes Fantasy Football so much fun You gotta have the balls to make the tough choices.
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LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
Wow some of you would take JJ in the first or second? I'm debating whether he is even worth it in the 3rd...
If you believe in playing it safe and taking the "surest" things with your early picks, then Julio is probably going too high.
If you believe in taking risks, projecting ahead, and getting the guys you think are going to be the biggest producers, even if it means reaching for them -- because there's at least some risk they won't make it back to you -- then Julio is fine in the 2nd.
Both are totally valid strategies. Julio isn't really a project at this point, I don't think. Down the stretch last season, he was in the elite upper tier of receivers, league-wide, and if you believe he can continue as he has already produced down a 3 or 4 week stretch, then he deserves consideration any time after Calvin. I wouldn't take him quite that soon, but I would take him ahead of both Fitzgerald and AJ. That's just me, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who had a solid opinion on either end of that debate.
If you believe in taking risks, projecting ahead, and getting the guys you think are going to be the biggest producers, even if it means reaching for them -- because there's at least some risk they won't make it back to you -- then Julio is fine in the 2nd.
Both are totally valid strategies. Julio isn't really a project at this point, I don't think. Down the stretch last season, he was in the elite upper tier of receivers, league-wide, and if you believe he can continue as he has already produced down a 3 or 4 week stretch, then he deserves consideration any time after Calvin. I wouldn't take him quite that soon, but I would take him ahead of both Fitzgerald and AJ. That's just me, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who had a solid opinion on either end of that debate.
Let me ask you have you sat down and done projections for Julio? What do you come up with assuming he plays a full season
unckeyherb
Footballguy
We have 2 year franchise limits in my league. I am keeping cam and Julio and super stoked about both of them. No way would I take Julio in the first round of a redraft. Probably not the second either.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Intriguing....
Instinctive
Footballguy
I have him targeted in the late 2nd of my 14 teamer, and I get him there most of the time in all my mocks. I go for him after Calvin/AJ/Fitz/Graham. I include Graham because neither is around for the 3rd thus far.
In a dynasty? He's a surefire 1st rounder.
In a dynasty? He's a surefire 1st rounder.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
In non PPR, Julio had a higher PPG last year. He was top 10 in PPG. He was top 8 in PPG amongst WRs playing in atleast 4 games.
Can he stay healthy to play a complete season? I had him last year and dropped him after he had a zero or close to it one week
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
he went at #24 in a 12 team ppr draft sunday
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
By the season start you will probably have to eye him in the 2nd round to have a chance. I would personally consider in the 3rd.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
to say the least................
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The guy out up 54-959-8 as a rookie, and that was in only 13 games. He also left the week 5 game injured after one quarter, and after only catching 1 pass and was held without a catch his first week back from his hamstring injury. So that production was in basically 11 games. He also improved as the season wore on. He caught 20 balls for 393 yards and 6 TDs in the last four weeks of the season.Sure there is some risk in drafting a younger guy over guys that are more establsihed and I surely wouldn't say anyone that went the "safer" route was doing it wrong, but Julio is fully capable of a top 10 season.Matt Ryan is good enough to support two top WRs in waht should be a more wide-open passing game and at age 37 Tony Gonzalez will surely be taking a more complimentary role rather than demand targets.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That does not have to necessarily be true. White and Jones could both be top 10 with numbers like:Julio Jones: 84-1295-10
Roddy White: 90-1285-8
with Ryan finishing with numbers like: 4445-30 (Solid Top 10 numbers but not Top 5 in this new NFL) - It's not like Atlanta has a lot of other pass catchers that will damand targets.
In the drafts I am participating in (all PPR) here is where he is going:
2.07 -19th overall
2.12 -24th overall
2.09 -21st overall (just about five minutes ago)
2.09 -21st overall
For what it is worth, Roddy went ahead of him in each. He seems to be going out around WR8-10
2.07 -19th overall
2.12 -24th overall
2.09 -21st overall (just about five minutes ago)
2.09 -21st overall
For what it is worth, Roddy went ahead of him in each. He seems to be going out around WR8-10
sweetness34
Footballguy
I feel like he is/has become one of the 2-3 "it" guys this year that everybody knows about, which means someone will draft him in the 2nd round. Now, he may be worth that pick - I'm just saying I think it becomes less and less likely that he falls past the late 2nd - because of all the hype...and the hype is everywhere.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Sounds like if you want him on your team you'd better take him with your 2nd round pick.
Honestly, that is what it looks like...I will say, I am doing a challenge for FBG against other "boards" and while they may have Jones higher than the group around here thinks they should, they are also very "bearish" on DeMarco Murray (which really surprises me). He has been going about 8-10 picks on average behind Jones...not saying it is right or wrong, but we tend to get a tad bit of a "group think" thing going, and it is interesting to see how other boards value players.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
NFL players get hurt. Julio missed 3 games. Why do you think he is more of an injury risk than any other WR? Unless you were in a small league or one with very shirt benches, that was silly to drop him. Sure, he had 2 very poor games in a row, but the game prior he had 130 yards and 2 TDs. In the 6 games after you cut him, he scored 6 TDs.
grateful zed
Footballguy
gb being in a homer league.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
He's already in the 2nd'King of the Jungle said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Wow. That's a huge projection. I'll take the under. If you think he's going to do that, early first is where you should target him.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Wide receiver is deep deep deep this season. If you are a subscriber, go watch Bloom's strategy article.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
he's officially jumped the Shark. "Wiseguys" will be picking him mid-late 2nd now - guaranteed.
packseasontix
Footballguy
Are you drafting Matt Ryan in every league then? He will be on pace for 40+ TDs if Julio hits 15.
How do you get...Julio at 15 TDs = Ryan at 40+ TDs? You really think he'll throw 25 TD's to other players?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Went mid 2nd in a redraft earlier today.
-jb-
Footballguy
I don't know, but he is THE value pick this year.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
With JJ you have a talented, yet vastly overhyped WR2 on his own team that's currently being drafted ahead of the still talented WR1, in this case Roddy White. In PPR scoring this makes absolutely zero sense. Roddy will almost certainly have more targets and receptions and probably an equal number of TDs. Also Matt Ryan is the QB, not Rodgers or Brees. The Falcons have a decent running game too. I have him at WR11 which would put his ADP around the end of round 3 in a 12 team league. But it's currently 3.1 or earlier in most of the drafts I've seen.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I have the first overall and I don't think I'd take Julio on the 2/3 turn.
