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Where top Rookie Prospects Come From (1 Viewer)

Jeff Tefertiller

Footballguy
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_8164751

Hawkins: Take those ratings and...

By Jim Armstrong

The Denver Post

Article Last Updated: 02/04/2008 03:37:33 PM MST

That's when all those verbal commitments will sign on the dotted line, whereupon every coach in America will profess his undying love for his latest recruiting class.

Dan Hawkins is like all those other coaches. But let the record show he's not in love with all these star rating systems popularized by the recruiting websites.

You know what I mean. Player A is a three-star, Player B is a four-star and Player C is a five-star. And poor Player D is a mere two-star, meaning he'll probably never amount to anything on a college football field.

Or not.

"I'm not into three-star or four-star," Hawkins said. "It's a big formula. A lot of things go into whether a kid is successful."

Hawkins is so leery of the rating systems he did some homework to show how unscientific they are. According to Hawkins, of the top 100 picks in the 2007 NFL draft, 57 weren't four- or five-star commitments.

Many of those judged to be lesser lights by the recruiting websites landed with non-BCS conferences. But several of those players have gone on to bigger and better things in the NFL.

How many? According to Hawkins, 25 players from the Packers' roster played for non-BCS schools. Not only that, 19 players from the Patriots' roster went to non-BCS schools.

The moral to the story? Many of the top-rated players who'll sign on Wednesday will make a major impact on their programs of choice. But so will countless others. Some will have only a star or two to call their own, but will go on to play on Sunday.

Makes sense if you think about it. What a kid has done in high school doesn't necessarily indicate what he's going to do in college. You don't know how he's going to mature, how he'll handle the college atmosphere, how he'll click with his position coach.

The bottom line is this: Every coach will say all the right things on national signing day, but only the kid can determine if the coach was right.

There is one thing, of course, that we can be pretty sure of. If a kid is going to become a big-time player, it will take him two or three years to do it.

Follow Jim Armstrong's daily sports commentaries on The Jimmy Page midday during the week. And read his columns on Sundays at denverpost.com/jimmy.

He can be reached at 303-954-1269 or jmarmstrong@denverpost.com.

 
Considering most guys are not 4 or 5 star recruits, 43 drafted out the top 100 seems like a decent number.

 
anyone else shocked by the relatively low number of top recruits that make it to the top rounds of the NFL.
How different is it than the number of 1st round draft choices that become All Stars?Predicting the success of 21-22 year-olds is only slightly easier than 17-18 year olds.
 
According to Hawkins, of the top 100 picks in the 2007 NFL draft, 57 weren't four- or five-star commitments.
Fascinating, but what's the rate of 4 or 5 star athletes making it big? Lesser known talents can improve in college, but it seems most 5 star players, barring injury or other issues, should continue to be stars through college and get drafted high.

 
I think I did some research on this one year. Not sure what happened to it. It sounds silly but very few of the highly rated high schoolers busted because they sucked. They busted because they got hurt, weren't used right, didn't have the heart, couldn't handle the schoolwork, etc. So I try to keep track of highly rated HS players that come into the NFL as lower round picks. They may just fade away, but there's a chance that they seize the opportunity and show why they were highly ranked in HS.

 

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